Increases in Coronavirus Cases Are Happening Mainly in States With Stricter COVID-19 Rules
The Washington Post nevertheless blames "a broad loosening of public health measures."
Epidemiology
New CDC Estimates Suggest COVID-19 Is Deadlier Than the Agency Previously Thought
The increase in the estimated infection fatality rate is especially large for the oldest age group.
How Far Are We From COVID-19 Herd Immunity?
A rough and optimistic projection for the pandemic ending sooner rather than later.
Despite Its Much Stricter COVID-19 Policies, California's Per Capita Death Rate Is Only Slightly Lower Than Florida's
The comparison poses a puzzle for people who believe lockdowns were crucial in controlling the pandemic.
Contrary to What the CDC's New COVID-19 Advice Implies, There Is Strong Evidence That Vaccination Curtails Virus Transmission
Research in Israel, the U.K., and the U.S. has found dramatic reductions in asymptomatic infections.
Texas Has Hundreds of Thousands of Coronavirus Carriers. The Governor Is Worried About 'Hundreds' of COVID-Positive Migrants.
Greg Abbott's fear is hard to take seriously, but it jibes with hoary stereotypes about immigrants.
Is Greg Abbott Inviting Disaster in Texas by Lifting COVID-19 Restrictions?
The governor's new policy represents a pretty modest shift from the existing rules.
Vaccines Are 100% Effective at Preventing COVID-19 Hospitalizations and Deaths
Wondering what "95 percent efficacy" means? I've got some good news for you.
Despite Starkly Different COVID-19 Policies, the U.S. and the U.K. Saw Similar Drops in Cases Around the Same Time
The same is true of Texas and California, which suggests that legal restrictions are not as important as politicians imagine.
Should Legal Restrictions Get Credit for the Recent Decline in New COVID-19 Cases?
Despite taking a much more restrictive approach, California saw a bigger surge than Texas, and the drop began around the same time in both states.
Would a National Lockdown Have Saved the U.S. From COVID-19?
A comparison of Texas and California suggests that legal edicts matter less than The New York Times thinks.
If Carelessness Gave Us the Current COVID-19 Surge, Individual Precautions Can Abate That Trend
Recent upward trends in cases and deaths seem to reflect virus transmission tied to holiday gatherings.
U.S. Cancer Death Rate Continues 30-Year Decline While the Incidence Rate Is Flat
Good news from the latest Cancer Statistics 2021 report
The More Transmissible U.K. COVID-19 Variant Could Make the Pandemic a Lot Worse
Ramp up the vaccinations now!
Newly Recorded COVID-19 Cases and Deaths Are Falling in the U.S.
It's not clear how long those hopeful trends will continue.
Is Anthony Fauci Right That Federalism Undermined the U.S. Response to COVID-19?
Centralization makes sense only if you ignore differences in local conditions—and trust the feds to make the right choices.
Has Restaurants' Role in Spreading COVID-19 Been Exaggerated?
The evidence is limited and mixed, but data from New York, Minnesota, and California suggest that restaurants there account for a small share of infections.
Why Use Two Doses of COVID-19 Vaccines When One Works Almost as Well?
We could double the number of Americans vaccinated against COVID-19.
California's Health Secretary Concedes There Is No Empirical Basis for the State's Ban on Outdoor Dining
The ban is "not a comment on the relative safety of outdoor dining," Mark Ghaly says, but part of the effort to keep people from leaving home.
Are Americans Insufficiently Alarmed by COVID-19?
Press coverage of the pandemic tends to exaggerate risk and ignore encouraging information.
Will the COVID-19 Vaccines Soon Crush the Pandemic?
The vaccines are great news, but the winter still looks bleak.
Many Epidemiologists Want Social Distancing and Masks Forever—Even After the Vaccine
Everyone has a right to dissent from the epidemiologists' contentment with the way things are now.
Vaccines Don't Save Lives. Vaccinations Save Lives.
Especially if the COVID-19 inoculations are deployed speedily and accepted widely.
Americans Are Nowhere Near Herd Immunity to COVID-19
Blood test study finds that only about 10 percent of Americans are immune to the virus.
A New Prevalence Estimate Suggests the COVID-19 Infection Fatality Rate in Texas Is Roughly 0.4 Percent
That makes the disease much deadlier than the seasonal flu but not nearly as deadly as modelers initially assumed.
Arbitrary COVID-19 Control Measures Will Not Make Americans More Likely To 'Hang in There' Until Vaccines Are Available
Legal responses to this fall's surge in new cases, like last spring's lockdowns, are frequently illogical and unscientific.
Masks Are a Tool, Not a Panacea
They help keep the disease from spreading, but they won't single-handedly keep the COVID-19 numbers from going up.
Joe Biden's COVID-19 Death Forecast Looks Less Plausible Every Day
So far the president-elect's "expectation" is off by a factor of more than three, which does not bode well for his approach to the pandemic.
Why Is Donald Trump So Mad at Anthony Fauci?
The president's COVID-19 adviser is not always right, but at least he is attempting to describe reality.
What Current Data Tell Us About How the Pandemic Could Play Out This Winter
Peaks and valleys, a fall peak, or a slow burn?
New Evidence Suggests Better Treatment Is Contributing to Falling COVID-19 Fatality Rates
Even after adjusting for age and comorbidities, researchers in New York and England found large improvements in patient survival.
White House Says 'President Trump's Coronavirus Response Has Saved Over 2 Million Lives'
That claim is wildly implausible and contradicted by the president's suggestion that COVID-19 was never much of a threat.
'CASES, CASES, CASES … Cases are up because TESTING is way up,' Tweets the President
COVID-19 Cases are increasing faster than is testing, and that's not "fake news."
Trump and Biden Are Both Misleading Us About COVID-19
The president claims success based on a completely implausible worst-case scenario, while his opponent projects more than 3,700 deaths a day.
A New Study Estimates That COVID-19 Is Responsible for 2.5 Million Years of Life Lost in the U.S.
That is much lower than the toll from unintentional injuries, cancer, or heart disease but higher than the loss attributed to suicide or homicide.
The CDC's Latest Antibody Data Confirm Huge Interstate Differences in COVID-19 Fatality Rates
The findings suggest that people infected in Connecticut were 10 times as likely to die as people infected in Utah or Oregon.
Trump's Muddled Mask Message May Be His Best Attempt To Reconcile Irreconcilable Extremes
Both sides in the debate about face masks make claims that are not justified by the scientific evidence.
The Latest CDC Estimates of COVID-19's Infection Fatality Rate Vary Dramatically With Age
In younger age groups, the estimated risk is substantially lower than the overall IFR for the seasonal flu.
Why Have Belarus and Other Eastern European Countries Seen Relatively Few COVID-19 Deaths?
And is their luck running out?
Suggesting That Face Masks Are More Effective Than Vaccines, the CDC's Director Exemplifies the Propaganda That Discourages People From Wearing Them
Government officials think Americans can't handle the truth, an assumption that tends to backfire.
How Much Difference Do COVID-19 Lockdowns Make?
The comparison between Sweden and the U.S. casts doubt on the importance of broad legal restrictions.
The COVID-19 Death Toll Is Rising Much Faster in the U.S. Than in Sweden, Which Now Has Fewer Deaths Per Capita
The trends suggest that Sweden's less restrictive policy has been more successful at reducing fatal outcomes.
Is Sweden's COVID-19 Policy 'Relatively Rational' or 'Calamitous'?
If the goal is minimizing the death toll over the long run, it is too soon to say.
CDC Data Confirm That Young People Face a Negligible Risk of Dying From COVID-19
The risk for the elderly is much higher, probably largely because of preexisting medical conditions.
Do Legal Restrictions Account for the Downward Trend in New COVID-19 Cases?
The New York Times thinks so, but the data do not fit that hypothesis very well.
The 'Highest Single-Day of COVID-19 Deaths' That Wasn't
The coronavirus pandemic has ushered in an age of sloppy, inaccurate journalism and a heightened need for media literacy.
Without 'Much More Aggressive Shutdowns,' The New York Times Warns, COVID-19 Could Kill 'Well Over a Million' Americans
That scenario seems highly implausible based on what we know about the epidemic.
Newly Identified COVID-19 Cases Are Falling in Sunbelt States Where They Spiked This Summer
The trend means we should see declining daily deaths in the coming weeks.
