'CASES, CASES, CASES … Cases are up because TESTING is way up,' Tweets the President

COVID-19 Cases are increasing faster than is testing, and that's not "fake news."


"CASES, CASES, CASES … Cases are up because TESTING is way up," tweeted President Donald Trump on Saturday. He was frustrated that the news media were reporting the highest level of diagnosed cases of COVID-19 since the pandemic began back in February. It's true, of course, that more testing will reveal more cases, many of them among low-risk people. But parsing the data from the COVID Tracking Project shows that the increase in the count of American COVID-19 cases is not just due to more testing; there is more community spread too.

Max Roser, the proprietor of the invaluable site Our World In Data, responded to the president's tweet by pointing out that "when more testing means that you are finding more cases then you are *not yet testing enough*." Roser also explained that "a crucial metric is the positive rate. It is low when a country tests in proportion with the size of its outbreak. The US is a country that never achieved that and doesn't achieve it now. That's why it is true there that more testing means that you find more cases." When a place is doing enough tests, the positive rate falls and becomes very low.

Is the president right that "TESTING is way up" in the U.S.? According to the COVID Tracking Project, the seven day average for daily tests peaked in late July at around 850,000 and then fell to 725,000 by mid-September. The current seven-day average has now risen to 1.1 million tests. So COVID-19 testing is indeed up, but is it up enough?

The percent positive testing rate is a critical indication of how widespread an infection is and whether levels of testing are keeping up with levels of disease transmission, explain David Dowdy and Gypsyamber D'Souza, a pair of epidemiologists at Johns Hopkins University. A test positivity rate above 5 percent is generally considered to be too high.

At the beginning of the pandemic, when available testing was nearly non-existent, the positivity rate reached a seven-day average of 22 percent. That fell to 4.2 percent by late June before rising to 8.2 percent during the summer surge in COVID-19 infections. By late September, the positivity rate had fallen below the 5 percent threshold to 4.3 percent.

As the number of daily tests has slightly increased in the past month, so too has the positivity rate, with the seven-day average now standing at 6.2 percent. Unfortunately, this calculation indicates that tests are not just detecting more cases but that the COVID-19 transmission rate in many communities is accelerating.

Another sign that we're seeing more than just an increase in testing: The COVID-19 hospitalization rate is rising. Writing in The Wall Street Journal, former Food and Drug Administrator Scott Gottlieb notes that hospitalizations are now at 42,000, up from 30,000 a month ago, even though COVID-19 hospital admission criteria have become more stringent.

In a tweet today, the president complained that the "Fake News" is reporting "COVID, COVID, COVID…in order to change our great early election numbers. Should be an election law violation!" Even if he were right that new reports about the spread were wrong, the president shouldn't be calling for restrictions on the press. But alas, he's not right about it being fake news either: The pandemic is again surging.

NEXT: Elections Can’t Cure a Sick Political Culture

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  1. That’s what flattening the curve and slowing the spread get you: instead of infections in spring and summer, they happen later in fall and winter.

    1. Doctor Fauci successfully delayed the spread of COVID-19 by approximately 8 months and destroyed the US economy. Someone deserves a goodie bag at the inauguration of President Joe Biden!

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    2. I suspect that is the case, but it’s pretty speculative at this point.
      What is well known is that this is the time of year when you always see an increase in this kind of viral infection (cold, flu, etc.). I think this is not a “surge” (whatever that is) and is rather a normal seasonal variation in virus activity.
      Why are people still pretending that this virus is a complete unknown?

      1. For the power.
        For the virtue.

      2. Yeah, who would have thought a coronavirus that doesn’t survive well in sunlight would increase in northern plain states, as we see record cold weather temperatures across the Northern plains, forcing people to spend more time indoors. And as harvest and summer range work is wrapping up and the farmers and ranchers are now spending more time with others marketing their commodities indoor?

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          Here’s what I do…>>Easy work to Home

      3. I’d hardly call this a surge at all. It looks like a normal variation. Maybe a sinusoid. Plus, it corresponds neatly with a large number of schools coming back in person, which everyone knew would spread the virus quite a bit, so this isn’t new. Additionally, we are gaining immunity among our most resilient group.

        To compare, Deaths are continuing a slight downward trend (Going by the Bing graphs when you search “coronavirus trend”). We averaged 80 a day last week versus over 100 three weeks ago.

        1. There is a lag between testing positive and death. Docs are pretty good at keeping people going with life support. Someone I know was on it for two months with this and survived.

          Also they are learning better treatment. Hospitalization is a better indicator of moderate to severe disease.

          The line in the graph represents percent positive. If you are testing more people and the prevalence of disease is low you should get more negatives not positives.

          It is likely that as more people get respiratory infections in the cold and flu season more will get tested. It is reasonable for Covid to have a similar pattern and we will see more cases.

          1. We are way past the death lag, so deaths are not gonna track cases with the same vigor as they did in March, April, and May.

            Also from the graph testing rate is exceeding the positivity rate.

            1. It is percent positive per test. Not absolute positive. That changes what we are seeing. Also daily reported cases are going up.

              Overall I have seen sensitivity and specificity of 95% for corona virus test reported (lancet). That is excellent. However there is a wide variation from one to another and place to place. So it is one data point.

              There are clinical criteria for the diagnosis. Those involve not only symptoms which are subjective, also objective signs including lab values and radiology findings. I think at this point clinicians can have high confidence in what they are dealing with in a short time.

    3. Now we’ll get infections during flu season, when the at-risk NEED to be at the hospital.


      1. At least most other Lefties plans failed, like getting Biden elected president and keeping another Trump nominated justice off the SCOTUS.

      2. yeah, should have maximized exposure for young and healthy people in the summer months to build up population immunity, instead of a lockdown

        1. Exactly. Now we have a backlog of patients who have been putting off “non-essential” procedures, flu season, AND corona to deal with!

  2. dude. give up the ghost.

    >>the president shouldn’t be calling for restrictions on the press

    nah you dummies censor yourselves plenty. and Biden is a crook.

    1. It’s ironic that a magazine like Reason which has gone out of it’s way to ignore, shout-down or handwave Obamagate, the Abraham Accords and the Pay to Play scandal, is now fretting about “restrictions on the press”.

      1. yes. yes it is.

  3. “Surging.” #FakeNews

    Positive tests are not *harm*. A chunk of them are False Positives. We’re testing more, so detecting less and less virulent cases.

    The FP rate for NFL players was around 3%. Per plot in article, the positive test rate fell *below* that for a while.

    Survived infections mean immunity achieved. The Covid metric for grown ups is harm per infection. We’re getting *better* at that.

    1. So you’re just gonna ignore the bit about hospitalizations, huh?

      1. unless it means something, yes.

        1. Some rural hospitals will and are overwhelmed, especially critical access hospitals. Critical access limits your beds to 25 and generally these tend to be the only Hospital within reasonable driving distance. However, critical access and other rural hospitals tend to stabilize and transport the most critical, as they are not equipped or staffed for most intensive cases. This isn’t anything unusual (I worked in rural medicine at a critical access hospitals and my wife currently works for one now). We went through this every flu season. It isn’t unique to the current epidemic (it is no longer a pandemic). The reverse of this of course is that during the summer time we often ran with empty beds.

          1. Exactly. Here in WA we had breathless articles about how four counties were COMPLETELY OUT OF ICU BEDS AND WERE TRANSFERRING ALL PATIENTS TO OTHER PLACES.

            Normal ICU capacity of those four counties: 0.

            1. Yeah if you are designated critical access, by law you can’t have any beds designated as ICU beds.

              1. The hospital I worked at in rural Idaho had two ICU designated beds, but we had to close them down after we were designated critical care.

            2. Please stop it. There is nothing to fear but more deadly lockdowns, psychologically-devastating fear porn and soul-sapping forced face-diapering orders.

              Sweden got it right and our leaders need to just own up to their overreaction before they deliver us into the hands of permanent rule by the germophobia-afflicted.

              If that happens, I don’t care who’s elected—the joy will be sucked from existence.

              1. Sorry not sure how that ended up under your comment @ElvisIsReal. That was meant to be a general comment.

              2. Agreed I was not saying fear, just pointing out the falsity of the overwhelmed rural hospitals. This is something other deal with every flu season because of their smaller size and lower resources (often resources are restricted in part due to laws and Medicare/Medicaid reimbursement regulations).

                1. But the regulations were meant to improve medical care!!

      2. I didn’t discuss everything in the universe with one comment. So sue me.

        Hospitalizations have gotten a little worse, but it’s unclear that that is indicative of more harm or more hospitalization. Despite the increased hospitalizations, deaths are basically flat. Slight uptick.

  4. Why isn’t more testing saving our asses like you said it would?

    1. Ps: Biden is a crook

    2. Testing is bad! Stop testing for cancer! It is better not to know!

      Also stop testing people to see if they are dead, or still alive! Death-testing makes the dead feel BAD about themselves; it is discriminatory!

      1. We fucked up our testing back in February, March, and April, and we still don’t have the cojones to admit it. It was the perfect clusterfuck of Republican Presidents and Democrat Governors.

        1. WE didn’t have reliable testing your fucking moron. It was a new virus. You don’t just magically develop the tens of millions of tests needed overnight.

        2. “back in February, March, and April”

          How would they have been able to have it out that early?

          1. If China hadn’t hidden the virus in an attempt to save face, and we got necessary samples back in October.
            However, I think that falls into the category of “If wishes were horses”

        3. Testing was initially fucked by FDA shutting private testing down, and then pushing with the CDC for a One Test To Rule Them All from the CDC, which unsurprisingly failed.

          Probably cost us a couple of months. If the medical #DeepState wasn’t trying to kill as many Americans as possible, they did a good imitation of it.

          Trump failed by trusting anything to the medical #DeepState. Most of those criticizing him wanted him to trust them more. After they got finished rallying people to go to outdoor super spreader marches against Trump’s “xenophobia” for limiting travel from China.

      2. Testing yields results albeit more testing yields more results. How is that so hard to comprehend?
        AZ actually has a decent site to reference with data dashboards. Most telling? Look the curves.
        In Sept AZ was running about 40-55K tests per day. Results about 1800-2500 new cases per day. Oct AZ is running 75K per day, big surprise, more cases, about 4500.
        That is the point. Not that we should stop testing, only that testing more will uncover more cases.
        Only makes a difference if they all die. Which they don’t. Total AZ deaths over the last 7months, 5875. Today 1.
        Deaths over the entire population .0008
        Deaths per case .0245

        Here is my cite:

      3. More testing is fine. The problem is with morons who shit themselves because they don’t understand the concept of False Positives.

    3. and how are we getting a third surge what with everyone wearing masks?

      1. Uhhhh. Masks don’t work?

        1. i believe that was his point

  5. The pandemic is again surging.


    I mean, fucking seriously. Let’s be realistic about what’s achievable without impoverishing hundreds of millions of people.

    1. And stop using words like “surge” and “wave”. In March those words were perhaps reasonable. Now we are looking at a slight seasonal uptick which is entirely expected and predictable.

      1. The other thing is that the virus has killed a lot of the people it can kill and doctors have gotten much more effective at treating it. So a surge in cases is likely to be in people who are not in any danger or for whom there will be effective treatment if they are.

        1. “The other thing is that the virus has killed a lot of the people it can kill”


          Now, back in February and March, when we were still somewhat capable of reasoning, we more or less resigned ourselves to the reality that those that were going to die … were going to die no matter what we did.

          Now that most of those people have died, we have resorted to pretending everyone else is also on the chopping block, and always was.

          When we had little evidence, we correctly concluded that some deaths were inevitable but, fortunately, the virus would not be that widespread. Now that we have ample more evidence to verify our initial impression, we are incorrectly concluding that the virus will spread everywhere and all deaths can be prevented.

          The less of an issue the virus becomes, the more you can be guaranteed that the lockdowns will be expanded.

          It was about the virus for about two weeks. After that, about consolidating power.

        2. I also question the accuracy of the tests. If Trump can recover, entirely, in less than a week — why would I assume his positive test was not a false positive?

      2. And stop using words like “surge” and “wave”.

        The preferred nomenclature is “spike”.

        1. This is an example of the fear mongering and misunderstanding of data analysis rampant in our media. Spikes are not indicative of a pattern. Using a regression analysis is much better to analyze the data. Regression allows us to analyze the long term trends while normalizing short term spikes. Focusing on the spikes is not scientifically accurate because you can’t account for all the variables that might have contributed to those spikes.

          1. Spikes.

            Spike protein.



            HEADS ON PIKES!!

    2. Georgia has been wide open with business and schools. No mask mandates or any other unscientific Lefty nonsense.

      7,800 deaths while infected.

      650,000 Americans die every year of heart disease.

      1. The problem with a culture of infants who don’t see tradeoffs in life.

        “If it saves even one life …”

  6. Sounds like all the BS about masks and distancing and flattening the curve and lockdowns and every other idea thrown out into the wind to see what would stick was a fantasy while the dithering class of bureaucrats and politicians could pretend they were doing something. Meanwhile the rest of us got on with our lives such as it is and stopped worrying what some fey government stooge thinks we should do.

    In other words we know now this virus can only kill a small fraction of the population. We’ll take our chances.


    2. So why no tests? If you are right then you should not be afraid of tests.

      1. Nobody cares about the tests.

      2. Nobody is afraid of the tests dilshit. They are afraid of the ignorant reaction that has dropped 10o million people into poverty globally.

        1. A million starving children is a small price to pay for saving grandma. Sure, she still calls the attendants at the home “those nice colored girls” and thinks it’s 1957, but there is a charming old world spirit burning bright within her. It is so unique and strong and radiant that I simply cannot bear to let it perish even a second sooner than it otherwise would.

          Plus, have you seen those “starving” kids? Starving? Why are their bellies so round?!

          1. I haven’t been around much lately. Are you newish? Or have I just not realized how funny and dark you are?

        2. I’d like to add I’m annoyed that the press that ran with horrible numbers is blasting Trump for actually believing the numbers they DEMANDED he believe.

  7. “COVID, COVID, COVID…in order to change our great early election numbers. Should be an election law violation!” Even if he were right that new reports about the spread were wrong, the president shouldn’t be calling for restrictions on the press. But alas, he’s not right about it being fake news either: The pandemic is again surging.

    Of course, the libertarian angle, where policy decisions aren’t based on half-truth “public health” factoids, would snuff this candle at both ends.

    The President shouldn’t be calling for restrictions on the press but, of course, the press shouldn’t be reinforcing public health officials demands for lockdowns either.

    If major media outlets ran a story saying “Blacks should avoid the polls to stem the spread of coronavirus.” you’d sure as shit be saying somebody at the DOJ ought to be looking into it.

    1. I wasn’t around in the early 80’s when HIV was spreading through the homosexual community. Did the “libertarians” working for this magazine advocate restricting personal rights for homosexuals in order to protect public health? I know San Francisco under Diane Feinstein closed down the bath houses to prevent the community spread of HIV but the cat was out of the bag at that point.

      1. By today’s COVID logic, everyone should have been prohibited from all sexual behavior and contact. Abundance of caution, or something.

      2. I mean, over a dozen states did make it illegal to have gay sex. What more did you want from them?

        1. Perhaps a pandemic could give us an excuse to Make Gay Sex Illegal Again.

        2. Those laws predated the AIDS epidemic and where part of English Common Law since the medieval days and part of the extension of those laws by English colonists in the Americas.

      3. I was an EMT, medical worker and student then. Blood and other body fluids were not things I was afraid of. They were part of my job.

        The thing was much like now we did not really know what we were dealing with. The basic science was hardly known. There were no known effective treatments. It got political which obscured the information coming out. China virus, Gay virus. That was not the way we saw it nor should now.

        Diane Feinstein. Talk about Luc Montagnier, Robert Gallo, the years to develop protease inhibitors.

        1. Senator Feinstein is about to watch as her legacy is erased from the schools of San Francisco because she dared to defend the flying of a Confederate flag during her term as Mayor. As a result, her name is to be replaced with another, more progressive name on one of the schools in San Francisco. Rarely do we see modern leftists come to realize that they too are going to be purged in the revolution.

      4. It was a long time ago, but I believe that Reason was advocating for gay marriage, which may or may not have an effect on promiscuity within the community. I’m also pretty sure they took exception to Reagan’s refusal to address the issue, and also wrote against restrictions on the availability of condoms. But, it was a long long time ago and I was just a child, although one who read more about politics than the average child.

        1. I remember them complaining that promoting abstinence ad a way to avoid pregnancy and STD’s was a Christian conspiracy to make us all puritans.

        2. Libertarians had always advocated that government should not be in the marriage business at all. It a way civil unions for everyone and let people decide marriage for themselves.

          That changed because people could not wrap their heads around the idea. So then OK .gay marriage it is.

  8. Every trend is going in the wrong direction. I’ve mentioned Utah a number of times here, and they say they are a couple weeks away from hospitals using triage criteria for all admittance.

    And now Kansas City:

    “The surge in coronavirus cases and hospitalizations is so severe in the Kansas City area that some hospitals were forced to refuse ambulances due to a lack of space, according to officials with one of the region’s largest health care providers. Eight hospitals, in both Missouri and Kansas, reported such high volumes of patients Wednesday night that they temporarily stopped accepting ambulances, said Dr. Marc Larson, operations director of St. Luke’s Health System’s COVID Response Team.“

    And keep in mind, we’re only in October.,region’s%20largest%20health%20care%20providers.

    1. Oh for fuck’s sake. There hasn’t been more than 1200 deaths nationwide on any day since early September. Take your sick fucking death fantasies somewhere else. No matter how hard you wish and how much sexual arousal these fantasies give you, give it the fuck up. It is a mild pandemic that is slowly fading away.

      1. Maybe people are flooding emergency rooms and exaggerating symptoms to get hospital stays because the media is inciting panic?

        Also, as far as I know hospital are still collecting their medicare bounties on COVID patients. Lots of incentive by patients and doctors to admit COVID cases.

        1. That is probably a good guess

        2. They send you home if you do not have certain signs and symptoms. There are criteria and guidelines for admission. You can’t fake a fever, chest X-ray findings, blood count, C-reactive protein, or a pulse ox. Most people do fine as outpatients.

          Hospitals do not admit patients. Doctors do that and they do not collect an extra dime.

          1. The information is appreciated.

      2. Jackass’s response is just part of the societal CYA that is happening right now. All of the metrics are trending such that the lock downs and mask mandates are now being shown to be ineffective. Even the HCQ “problem” has been solved: it is an effective treatment early in the disease cycle with studies around the world supporting this. But now in the face of overwhelming data that contradicts the efficacy of the things they were clamoring for early, they are pretending it doesn’t exist or they are doubling down on nonsense like this idiot. Either way, what we have is a massive fuck up of unprecedented scale perpetrated against humanity by those who advocated for such lunacy. So those advocates are just pretending it didn’t happen…that is the scary bit.

    2. I just read Utah stats. This is interesting. 74% of deaths are 65 yrs old or more. 92% of deaths are from high risk group. Cases are up. Number of deaths, steady low.

      1. These are the people we always knew were in the cross hairs. We knew this would happen. The point was to slow it down, not to prevent it.

      2. These proglydyte fuckheads post this shit and think you won’t read the article, because the headline is meant to manipulate public opinion.

    3. Every trend is going in the wrong direction.

      Despite more masks and lockdowns than we had in March/April or June/July, the cases are still climbing/spreading.

      Consider your precepts. Either people are ignoring the mask and social distancing mandates en masse or the mask/distancing mandates don’t work. The latter may’ve made sense in June/July when people were going outside to mostly peacably assemble, but in Oct./Nov. not so much.

      1. “Either people are ignoring the mask and social distancing mandates en masse or the mask/distancing mandates don’t work.”

        It is both.

        Nobody gives a fuck. Even the folks in the nursing homes are ready to take their risks rather than die in complete isolation a few months later than they otherwise would have.


      The CEO of the largest hospital system in KC said they had 90 patients hospitalized according to the article was sourced from. At Luke’s operates 16 hospitals.

    5. Kansas has a whole 1000 deaths fucktard.

      Or in NYC in March, a good day.

    6. they say they are a couple weeks away from hospitals using triage criteria for all admittance.

      Yeah, we heard that all through the spring, too. Funny thing, is that the auxiliary facilities were hardly, if ever, used. The only place that had real, actual overflow was New York City, which was already a filthy shithole even before the riots, and should have been expected when their political leaders told everyone to go hug a Chinaman in February to prove you weren’t racist.

    7. Kansas recently had at least one bad outbreak in a nursing home. Which is unfortunate, but of course that article talks about testing college students. Which is retarded.

      The more elderly people suffer from the virus the more they seem to target young and healthy people. It is inhumane toward the people who are really vulnerable

      1. I don’t know about Missouri as much, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the same thing is happening. Old or obese people inundating the hospitals, so they decide that young college students are somehow to blane.

    8. But according to you Utah was a couple of weeks away from disaster a couple of weeks ago. And now they still are.

  9. So what? Once the virus got lose in the world beyond a few hundred people there was no stopping it, only delaying it. The virus is going to spread throughout the population until enough people had survived it to create some heard immunity and it died out. That was what the virus was always going to do. And indeed, exactly what it is doing now. Somehow, people like Bailey convinced themselves that if we only sacrificed to the Gods enough by locking people in their homes and showing our submission by wearing a mask that wasn’t going to happen. Sorry Ron, none of these things accomplished anything except delaying the inevitable and I am not convinced they even did that.

    1. And everybody knew this in March until Joe Biden needed them to forget. 15 days to slow the spread.

    2. Yea, but ruining working people’s lives satisfies Ron Bailey’s pathetic, resentful little ego.
      May he get what he deserves, slowly and painfully.

      1. Yeah, one notices how little effect lockdowns have on magazine writers’ ability to pay their bills.

      2. Lefties shot their wad again to get rid of Orangeman.

        It failed.

        More and more Americans are ignoring tyrannical and unconstitutional mask and distance requirements.

        And they voted for Trump. Mark my words.

        1. 6 Trump voters between my two homes.

          0 of us voted Trump last election.

        2. 6 Trump voters between my two homes.

          0 of us voted Trump last election. (2 GJ/4 DNV)

    3. There was no ability to stop it ever. A novel, airborne, zooligical pathogen with a low mortality rate can never be stopped. If the mortality rate was actually what the models predicted early on it would have burned out quicker, like other outbreaks of high mortality viruses. They kill to quickly to spread far. However, low mortality viruses tend to linger around because they can spread. This is literally first week epidemiology from introductory epidemiology courses.

      1. And, it is quite likely that this virus, like most, is actually evolving towards a less lethal strain. It makes no evolutionary sense to kill the host.

        1. Correct. But the data suggests less evolution and more that the more lethal version is burning out and most people are now contracting the less lethal variety. Which is still evolution, technically, survival of the fittest. When it comes to pathogens the fittest are those that can spread without killing their hosts.

  10. “The cure is worse than the disease”, President Trump. You won’t change the world view of people who consider masks and plexiglass separators a good thing for children who are not harmed by the virus. These are the NANNIES, who will construct a safe, controlled place for us.

    1. Hush now, baby, baby, don’t you cry
      Mama’s gonna make all of your nightmares come true
      Mama’s gonna put all of her fears into you
      Mama’s gonna keep you right here under her wing
      She won’t let you fly, but she might let you sing
      Mama’s gonna keep baby cozy and warm
      Ooh baby, ooh baby, ooh baby
      Of course mama’s gonna help build the wall

      1. Hearing the lyrics in my head gave me goosebumps. Fuck almighty, they want to own us.

  11. Can we agree on a specific definition for “case”? Does that mean a person with a detectable or significant set of symptoms? Or just a positive booger test?

    1. It is just a positive test.

    2. >>Can we agree on a specific definition

      call it Climate Change everything else is Climate Change

    3. Coming back to it, I’m confused how cases would be up without more testing. If we aren’t testing every case, are we just adding to the numbers to make the models correct? Sure, more people are showing up in the hospital rather than getting tested out in the field, but regardless, more testing is being done as evidenced by more cases. Without the distinction of diagnosed cases vs. tested cases (or some other way of developing a case without a test) more cases *means* more testing.

  12. When I see septuagenarian, “morbidly-obese” Trump catch COVID-19 and just shrug it off, I think I’ll take my chances. And don’t give me the, “but he had all the best doctors” BS. Whatever his doctors know, doctors know around the country. His doctors are not keeping a secret cure all to themselves. All this pandemic has shown me is what a country of scared, whimpering little wussies we have become. I fondly remember a time when we were “home of the brave”.

    1. “America being the home of the brave was just an idea. We never lived up to it. Because of Donald Trump, we are now the home of the grave.”

      – Joe Biden

      1. Remarkable wit for an Alzheimer’s patient when you think about it.

  13. Trump is a maroon. We need to be doing moar testing. But at the same time the narrative that we are alwyas at the most cases evah is just wrong. Just look at the fricking graph embedded in teh story, we are NOT currently at the the highest case load ever. Sheesh.

    Again, Trump is a maroon for not testing. We need to be testing the shit out of things if we ever want to open up.

    1. We are testing people by the hundreds of thousands. WTF do you want? Moreover, unless you want to force everyone to be tested, what do you want Trump to do about it? Anyone who wants a test can get one. They are available all over the place.

      If only your hero Biden were in charge and he could force everyone to be tested and lock them in camps or something. Jesus Christ you are tiresome and stupid.

      1. Doing more covid tests per day than flu tests during a YEAR.

    2. You are an imbecile and coward.

    3. Testing doesn’t cure anything fucktard. It doesn’t even help cure or stop anything. All it does is let ignorant chicken littles enforce draconian measures.

      1. Testing if done reasonably and the data interpreted reasonably would dispell the fear, unfortunately, our media instead uses the testing to drive up fear. Both you and Brandy are right to a degree and both are wrong to a degree. Mainly because both are missing the variable of public opinion. Trump should call for more testing while making the case that testing demonstrates that we have to learn to live with it and not be afraid. But when he has made this argument his opponents pounce. Case in point Eric’s take in Hit n Run this morning.

        1. Maybe. Testing people who aren’t really at risk is a waste of time and money, unless you are then going to quarantine them, when they have already been waltzing around in public for days between whenever they got infected and when they get results. Oh, that helps. Look, the major point is that the virus, whatever its spread and rate of spread, is simply not that dangerous. The vast majority of people who were going to die from it already have, and most likely would have died from something else this year (and many did).
          Rip the damn bandaid off.

          1. Don’t disagree just saying more data would just prove how stupid the panic is. Of course with the caveat that that only works if the media reports it straight.

            1. Testing does nothing to slow or stop the spread.

            2. Don’t disagree just saying more data would just prove how stupid the panic is.

              I’d say the last 7 months have disproven that optimistic take. We have all kinds of data to look at now which should have shown how stupid this panic is.

              The lockdowns and restrictions are entirely political at this point. These galaxy-brained politicians and public health officials are completely stunned that their magical mask talismans didn’t stop the coof once the summer was over and people started getting sick again.

              1. I did make that caveat.

            3. which wont happen till orangeman is gone

        2. Testing is supposed to be a diagnostic tool… meaning people who are sick typically get tested to treat their illness.

          We aren’t limiting testing to sick people – we are testing EVERYONE, regardless of health.

          When my kid has a fever, I take him to the doctor and, in flu season, they do a flu and strep test. Whichever one is positive determines whether they give my kid Tamiflu or antibiotics.

          But a someone not showing signs of illness don’t need to be treated. Because they aren’t sick.

          Most people intuitively know this is what “cases” means in flu season – sick people went to the doctor and tested positive. So mass testing EVERYONE and calling it “cases” does get interpreted as “sick person went to doctor and tested positive for covid.” Wow! Look at all those sick people! This is so much worse than the flu. I must harangue my neighbor for not wearing a mask and forbid my kid from selling lemonade with the kids selling brownies.

          But they aren’t sick. Because we aren’t treating testing as a diagnostic tool.

          1. It is that way here. You need a doctors order.

            However testing can be a screening tool as well. Mammography for example. So large scale testing is just another way to use a test.

            One thing about that is if the disease has low prevalence as this one does. The percent of positives will go down, not up the more you test because you will get more true negatives. We are seeing the opposite trend.

            The more tests you do the more accurate is your result as to how many people have the disease.

    4. Wrong. We need to open up if we ever intend to open up. The fact that we ever felt it necessary to ask permission to exercise our inalienable rights is the only thing wrong with this picture. Happily, we never needed permission and we don’t need it now, so the error is in our hands to correct. Just stop dancing to their tune—they’ll stop the music out of embarrassment shortly thereafter.

      1. Not sure how this keeps nesting under the wrong comments. This was intended as a response to the notion we need to test “if we’re ever going to be able to open back up.”

    5. I will never take a kungflu test.

      Over 130 million tests have been performed din the USA. Probably a bunch of duplicates since I never had one.

    1. Learn to spell.

    2. Do the Full Cobain shitlib!

  14. Mortality is down – way down – since March. We now have therapeutics coming on line to treat Covid that are more effective. A vaccine will be coming before the end of the year (in 9 months time, which is an amazing feat). And testing is up significantly to catch cases earlier.

    It is time to thinking about some serious payback to the people who caused it. Yes, that is Red China. I would sell Taiwan every bomb, missile, tank, ship they could possibly want to buy, and ship it immediately. As for the trade deal, let’s see if Red China fulfills their end of the bargain. Thusfar, they have not. What a surprise.

    1. Trump caused the pandemic and all the ensuing devastation by not immediately telling every American that they would die, and also by closing travel to and from China carelessly late, but also xenophobically early.

      1. Also, he failed to shut down the economy nationally–like they did in New York City.

        . . . as if they rest of the country would have stood for that.

    2. “It is time to thinking about some serious payback to the people who caused it.”

      Our enemies are much closer than Red China.

      1. Ron Bailey for example

  15. Go to this map at Johns Hopkins (by county) and click on the tab that reads “New Cases by Pop”.

    Show me a place on the map where there is a surge in new cases, and I’ll show you a northern part of the country where the temperatures have dropped (with a few exceptions).

    1. Record cold temperatures in the Northern Plains, harvest mostly finished, people spending more time indoors marketing their commodities to others.

      1. As opposed to bring isolated harvesting and working their cattle.

      2. You can almost see the temperature bands descending down into the plains just by looking at new infections.

        1. Yep. Expect Colorado go have another spike soon. They went from high temperatures last week to record cold and snow this week.

          1. Another factor, daylight hours are rapidly decreasing, and humans being predominantly diurnal tend to spend more time indoors when it is dark. I have lived in Anchorage for six years. The city was a ghost town most of December and January after 6, when rush hour ended. And it is a fairly urban city. The opposite was true in June and July, people still out running around with little drop off at 11 pm.

  16. PS: Joe Biden is a crook

  17. I’m watching Charles Schumer rant and rave and fume on CSPAN right now, and loving every second of it.

    Deep down inside, I think he knows full well that decades of his vile, despicable behavior are coming back to bit him in the ass now, at long last.

    1. Everything that liar Schumer said about Republicans was actually Democrat Party behavior.

      I hate winning this much….

  18. Millions have seen their livelihoods destroyed. Millions have been forced to delay medical treatment. Third world poverty and attendant deaths are exploding. Individual rights have been denied to billions worldwide. But yeah Trump’s tweets are the libertarian story of the week. Fuck you Ron.

  19. Y’all are really determined to hammer home that libertarians should never be trusted with public health policy, eh?

    1. Yes because instead we should panic about a zooligical, novel airborne virus with a small mortality rate?

      1. If you don’t realize how stupid it is to try live in fear and try and stop the spread of an airborne, novel zooligical virus with a low mortality rate and a symptomatic infection around 50% of those infected, than of course your take would not be be educated and you would denigrate those who understand the pure uselessness of “doing something” and expecting any different outcome that what has occurred. The pure scientific illiteracy of those blaming Trump and demnding “we do something” despite any evidence ever that this will work is simply breathtaking.

    2. It’s beyond just health care. You can’t trust them with science at all.

      1. You mean The Science. The on built on models and not actual data.

      2. You mean like the science that states organic farming is worse for the environment, or the science that says not managing forests leads to more tree disease and hotter taster, larger and more destructive fires? Or the science that says the myth that Indians didn’t modify their environments is just that, a myth? Or the science that says it is impossible to stop an airborne, zooligical, novel virus with a low mortality rate? That science?

  20. It’s interesting that with a surge of COVID infections and hospitalizations across the country, so many Republican mayors and governors start to do the unthinkable (to their base, anyway)…you demand restrictions. Let’s take Mississippi:

    “Mississippi Gov. Tate Reeves is expanding a mask mandate to seven additional counties to try to control the spread of the coronavirus as cases increase rapidly in some areas.
    His new order takes effect Wednesday and lasts until at least Nov. 11. Sixteen of Mississippi’s 82 counties will now have a requirement for people to wear face coverings when they are indoors away from their homes. Social gatherings in those 16 counties also will be limited to 10 people indoors or 50 people outdoors.”

    Mask mandate. Parts of Mississippi. Who woulda thunk it..

    Know why? Because when your hospital system starts to get overrun, you do all you can to stem the tide. Know what you don’t do? Open up further. Well, unless of course you’re part of the children who comment here.

    1. Yeah because our hospitals don’t dela with the same thing every flu season. Or wait they actually do. But without the media hype. You can’t stop a novel, airborne zooligical virus with a low mortality rate. And for your information I live in one of those red states and everyone I know is pissed off at the lockdown orders, which are mostly being pushed by a few blue urban cities. No one I know, liberal or conservative in my county is really in favor of lockdowns. Or mandatory mask

      1. Well it sounds like our city is going to issue some more orders today everyone here too is sick of it and this may be the most blue city in the state; can’t wait to see what Ellen Leahy’s infinite wisdom provides – get ready because it seems to bleed over into the rest of the state.

        1. Well Missoula had to help try and prop up Bullock.

          1. And the rest of Montana, the citizens, are ignoring the edicts and carrying on with their lives.

    2. Of course, it might not be worse anywhere than it is in El Paso, where they’ve seen a 300% increase in hospitalizations in one month, and where Republican mayor Dee Margo has installed a curfew and has actually begun to shut down through a stay at home order:

      “El Paso County Judge Ricardo Samaniego on Sunday night issued a stay home order with a daily curfew from 10 p.m. to 5 a.m. Violators could be fined $500 under the order, but the curfew does not apply to people who are going to or from work or out for essential services, including grocery stores and healthcare. We are in a crisis stage,” said Samaniego, the county’s top elected official.”

      Keep in mind, it’s still only October.

      1. El paso county had 40 death yesterday. Yup only 40. But panic!

        650,000 Americans die every year of heart disease.

    3. You know what didn’t do a damn thing? Mask mandates and lockdowns. Plot the date of the lockdown and mask mandate on New York’s deaths by day – lockdown happens well before the peak, mask mandate happens well after, neither made a bit of difference to the shape of the curve. It’s a standard Gompertz curve, exactly what you’d expect for a pandemic with no intervention whatsoever.

    4. Jack I think this has been brought up before the majority of folks here are for doing things. They are against doing things when something doesn’t work and you continually push the narrative of we just didn’t do it well enough, we need to try it harder. It seems impossible to many to look at different path or try another way. Just because you always have doesn’t mean you always should.

      1. Here on the MonDak we are like try it, we dare you to try and enforce it.

  21. Ronald Bailey used to be an objective science reporter. But he’s become an anti Trump propagandist who has politicized Covid.

    1. The US has tested more people (per million) for Covid than all of the 60 other other countries in the world with a population above >10 million.

      So Trump statement “‘CASES, CASES, CASES … Cases are up because TESTING is way up,’ Tweets the President” was correct.

      New cases in Europe have surged at a much faster rate than in the US. Does Bailey also believe that Trump is to blame for the increase in Europe (and all other countries) just because the election is a week away?

      1. “Does Bailey also believe that Trump is to blame for the increase in Europe”

        If he could find any faint hook to make that case, he certainly would.

  22. Notice the second peak in mid-July following the mass protest super spreader event. The new peak now is the long expected second wave as cold and flu season returns. Fortunately the virus is less deadly now.

    1. Actually, the ‘two peaks’ are geographic, not real separate peaks. The first peak is northern places like New York, which tend to experience pandemics as a sharp spike in spring with an asymptotic drop off. New York was out of the pandemic by June.

      The second peak is southern states, which tend to experience pandemics as a broader flatter peak over the summer.

      Places currently experiencing rising hospitalizations and deaths are those places that flattened the curve too well, and thus have lots of vulnerable population to get infected. If we hadn’t social distanced, we’d be done already. (The lockdowns and mask mandates did absolutely nothing).

      1. This is correct. Virus’ have a regional pattern and this pattern is known by epidemiologists ’cause it is in their text books.

      2. This is very important. The US is a large and diverse place. National numbers are pretty meaningless.

      3. Yep. Was talking to a friend in Canada last night, and now they have a backlog of patients who were “delayed” due to covid, flu season is starting, and actual covid cases are rising.

        All because they artificially slowed the curve all summer. Now they may HAVE to have restrictions because the hospitals are so underprepared now vs in July.

  23. The very good public health news that left wing anti Trump propagandists refuse to discuss or acknowledge is that the daily Covid death rate in the US declined has sharply from 8.2 per million on April 22 to 2.4 per million today.

    Focusing solely on new cases of Covid is public health malpractice, but that’s precisely what Fauci, Birx, CDC, state/local health agencies, Democrats and the left wing media have done for the past six months in order to defeat Trump.

  24. More good news for public health that the Dems and left wing media won’t reveal or admit.

    The US Covid case fatality rate declined from 6.1% on May 16 to just 2.6% today.

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  26. the hospitalization data I’ll give a little credence.

    But the cases? Not only do we have false positives, but the PCR test doesn’t just detect live virus – it can continue to detect viral fragments for weeks (at least) after recovery. You need to run a culture to see if you can grow live virus to confirm the infection – something no one is doing because its expensive and time consuming. And the number of people *previously infected* (knowingly or not) increases as the pandemic goes on, which means the usefulness of the PCR test goes *down*, because its going to keep picking up people who had mild or asymptomatic infections weeks previous and recovered already.

    The only real data point is death. If deaths aren’t going up, the case increase is illusory. (Allow for a 2-3 week lag).

    1. Probably worth noting you ideally want to look at State data. (County is too small for most counties to get a clear signal). Whole US data conflates very different expected epidemic patterns in ways that isn’t useful.

    2. We are way past the lag time for the front of the “case surge”, so we are not gonna see a viral rise in deaths.

    3. I think the hospitalization rates are the best number. Death counts can be misleading due to the economic incentive to attribute it to COVID. But hospitalizations are much more difficult to fake. Hospitals due like to keep the beds occupied, but they are limited, particularly for viral isolation rooms.

      And, looking at hospitalization rates, the second wave is mild so far.

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  27. Just stop counting all the covid deaths and there won’t be so many..

  28. If increased testing is providing a “more accurate“ reporting of infection rates, doesn’t that strongly imply that previous infection rates were understated? And if that’s the case, doesn’t that mean that what we are seeing now is not an uptick or spike, let alone a “surge,“ but a statistical correction based on more accurate readings? In other words, we are comparing a more accurate measure of the infection rate to previous readings which were inaccurately low. Once you take that into consideration, the infection rate is still substantially lower today than what it had been earlier this year.

    1. Exactly.

      Ron is being very disingenuous by not admitting that Trump has a point.

      We are testing far more then before, particularly low-symptom/assymptomatic cases that were completely missed in the first wave. Are case count is higher then before because limited testing in the past missed a lot of the cases.

      Trump is not 100% accurate, because we are certainly seeing a second wave uptick. But he has a very valid point that the manufactured panic in the media about the high case count is largely anti-Trump propaganda due to the pending election.

      1. Is it really a “second wave“? Look at the chart again. There was a more significant “uptick” in late July/early August, and then it dropped again. Why wasn’t that a “second wave?” And the current “uptick” is still about one half of the late July/early August level, and that was when we weren’t testing as extensively and missed asymptomatic persons.

        Frankly, since late May, the infection rate seems to be a sine wave with ups and downs rather than “new waves.”

        1. There is a clear ‘second wave’, passing through the midwest states right now.
 has state and county info and you can plot cases, deaths and hospitalization. Plotting CT/MA/PA against WI for example (ignoring NY/NJ because the numbers are so skewed), shows that WI had negligible cases/hospitalizations back in the spring, but they are getting smacked hard now while CT/MA/PA are seeing a minor bump. The case rate in WI looks really bad, but comparing hospitalizations, their ramp up and peak appears it will be far far less then what the NE states dealt with 6 months ago. Cases look bad, hospitalizations/death not so much. The current testing volume is skewing the numbers severely because so many cases were missed with limited testing in the spring.
          We definitely have a second wave, of regionally varied severity, but Trump is correct that the increased testing is skewing the numbers relative to earlier in the year. He’s wrong in that it’s not ‘only’ testing, but his statements are less propagandizing then the chickenlittles screaming about our covid crisis.

    2. Thank you for pointing this out.

      Remember the Obama anger translator? I think we need a Trump nuance translator because that’s exactly what he’s talking about, but no, dumb man orange no make good word lines!

  29. The graph represents the percent positive not the absolute number of cases. Trump is absolutely wrong but no suprise there. He is either lying, ignorant or both.

    The pattern exactly follows everything we know about the virus. We had that big peak in July and August. Then it slowed down and now it is trending back up. Same thing is happening in other places like Italy and France.

  30. Trump is just doing what he has done all along. The strategy is just to minimize the impact and implications of the disease. He said it outright on tape. This lie is brilliant. We have more cases because we are doing a better job. And his supporters eat it up.

    1. We are doing better then Europe, our second wave is not as bad as the increased testing suggests, hospitalizations are much better then before and illness severity/deaths is significantly improved.

      Trump is partly correct, and as it was a tweet, he was correct enough for the point he was making.
      His job isn’t to proclaim the sky is falling….his job is to keep the nation moving forward. Which all POTUSs have done in the past and minor lies/positive spin is a time tested tool. Holding Trump to a standard that no president in history would have met is ridiculous only clarifies your limited honesty and partisan bile.

      1. No he is totally wrong. We have more cases because we have more cases. We have more percent of tests coming back positive because we have more people with the virus.

        He is lying.

        For now it is an upward trend. I don’t trust predictions.

      2. I am voting for Jo Jo. I do not really have a dog in this fight since she will get few votes.

        I hold all of them to the same standard. One of them is I do not have tolerance for deception and misleading the public especially when it comes to public health.

      3. Chuztpah calling me dishonest when you defend in your own words “minor lies/positive spin” “partly correct”

        And I am the partisan. Right.

  31. I am astounded at how well this has been kept in check.

    We know that 7 or 8 million cases in a year of coronavirus is extremely low when looking at yearly coronavirus infections.

    Normally, there are around 7 billion cases of coronavirus in a year.

    Like this new one, most people who get it never even know they have it. Those that DO know usually get over it quickly.

    Only a small percentage get a severe case, an even smaller percentage get an extreme case–where it’s dangerous. And it can wreak havoc on the elderly and the infirm–allowing pre-existing or opportunistic infections to take hold–and sometimes kill them.

    If that happens the cause of death is usually given as the condition or opportunistic infection–because, on it’s own, the coronavirus really doesn’t kill anyone.

    And all these points are pretty consistent with this new one.

    Because it’s a COLD virus. Not the flu, not ebola.

    A cold. Extremely contagious. Moves in waves not really connected to weather or anything else. Largely harmless. Not entirely, but mostly.

    When you look at C-19 correctly, the success of the response is amazing.

    People get 4-6 colds a year on average (yes, that’s every single person on earth being averaged for that, so the average number of colds is 28-42 BILLION). About 20% of that number are caused by coronaviruses. So between 6ish and 8ish billion coronaviruses every single year.

    And we’re holding this one, after 10 months to less than a billion.

    Ever single death is awful, and even this attempt at injecting perspective probably annoys more than helps, but the world cannot remain in this endless state of terror over a cold virus.

    1. That was very informative.

  32. Better not get a mammogram or colonoscopy unless you want to end up with breast or colorectal cancer!

    What a moron.

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