Without 'Much More Aggressive Shutdowns,' The New York Times Warns, COVID-19 Could Kill 'Well Over a Million' Americans

That scenario seems highly implausible based on what we know about the epidemic.


Without "much more aggressive shutdowns," a New York Times editorial warns, "well over a million" Americans "may ultimately die" from COVID-19. The paper does not cite a source for that estimate, which seems highly implausible based on the death toll so far, projections for the next few months, the gap between total infections and confirmed cases, and a crude case fatality rate that continues to fall.

Independent data scientist Youyang Gu, who has a good track record of predicting COVID-19 fatalities, is currently projecting about 231,000 deaths in the United States by November 1. The University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation projects 295,000 deaths by December 1. Assuming those projections prove to be about right, the Times is predicting that the death toll will quadruple during the months before an effective vaccine can be deployed, which might happen early next year.

If we have a vaccine by April, for instance, the Times projection would require that deaths rise at a monthly rate of about 40 percent in December, January, February, and March. By comparison, according to Gu's figures, the death toll rose by about 19 percent in June and 21 percent in July. His projections indicate increases of about 21 percent this month, 13 percent next month, and 9 percent in October.

The expected tapering of the upward trend in total deaths may seem surprising in light of this summer's surge in confirmed cases. But according to Worldometer's tally, which is based on numbers from local and state health departments, the nationwide seven-day average of daily new cases, after rising above 69,000 on July 25, had fallen to less than 55,000 as of yesterday. And even as daily new cases rose dramatically in June and July, the nationwide crude case fatality rate—reported deaths as a share of known cases—continued to fall. The current rate, 3.2 percent, is about half the rate on May 15. There are several plausible explanations for that downward trend, including expanded testing, better treatments, and a younger, healthier mix of patients. But the decline in the fatality rate makes the death toll predicted by the Times look even less likely.

According to Worldometer's count, the current COVID-19 death toll in the United States is about 166,000, while the number of known cases is 5.2 million. But as the Times has noted, antibody research by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) suggests the actual number of infections may be more like 52 million, which indicates an infection fatality rate around 0.3 percent. Assuming those estimates are in the right ballpark, a death toll of "well over a million" would imply more infections than people.

Although the threshold for COVID-19 herd immunity is a matter of much dispute, many epidemiologists think 60 percent is a reasonable estimate. If so, the maximum number of U.S. infections, even without any precautions, would be less than 200 million. That means the Times is assuming a nationwide infection fatality rate close to the CDC's current "best estimate" of 0.65 percent.

Even if the nationwide IFR turns out to be that high, the death toll imagined by the Times is feasible only if all the precautions we have taken to curtail the spread of COVID-19—including legal restrictions on social and economic activity as well as voluntary measures such as physical distancing, avoiding crowds, mask wearing, and hand washing—prove to be ineffectual. In other words, the Times seems to be comparing its policy prescriptions to a counterfactual "no intervention" scenario, which does not bear even a remote resemblance to the choices we are actually confronting.

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  1. You know what it would mean if a million Americans die of COVID? 328 million other Americans would have to go on with life which isn’t going to be easy in a depression where many more will die.

    1. Yeah, even if it is a million (which it definitely won’t be), lockdowns are not worth it. How the hell did anyone ever think they were? Sorry, it’s sad, but a million mostly elderly people dying is not so disruptive to society that extreme actions are warranted.

      1. Prior to this year, no plan of handling an epidemic ever called for a lock down.

        Because they don’t work for stopping the epidemic.

        They do work for increasing the power of the government though.

        1. The CDC has also stated that the increase in deaths for overdose suicides is more than the Covid Deaths. Nothing like spreading fear, loneliness and economic hardship to create far worse health issues.

      2. Hey! Come on now, Zeb! The fact that you’re willing to accept the loss of so many lives, especially elderly people, indicates that you really don’t care about other people, especially elderly, who’ve got just as much right to live, enjoy good healthy and be active as you, me, and other people. Knock it off! Thanks.

        1. And your pile of bullshit assumes (absent any evidence at all) that lockdowns will ‘save lives’.

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        2. My sin is, to my mind, thinking no more or less about the people dying of COVID than I think about the people dying of the flu.

          COVID deaths are not more tragic than flu deaths. Strangers dying from COVID impact me about the way way that stranger dying of the flu do, or strangers dying from falling off a ladder, or getting in a car wreck, or of cancer, or of heart attacks.

          If someone I love dies from any cause, it’s a huge personal tragedy. But if someone I love dies of COVID, is it more tragic to me than if they died of the flu, or cancer, or anything else?

          8000 people die every day of something. Personally, I cannot grieve for all 8000 of them, nor do I want to try to sort out how much differently I should grieve based on how they died.

          I’m not saying that flu and COVID are the same, but I am asking why people treat them as if they are VERY VERY different? And why people ignore flu deaths as inconsequential?

          The reality is that vast (VAST) majority of people who get the flu will survive and it seems the vast majority of people who get COVID will survive, albeit at a slightly higher risk of dying. COVID *is* more deadly than the flu. Some people who get the flu will die, despite medicine’s best efforts; a somewhat larger number of people who get COVID will die despite medicine’s best effort. Is there really THAT much difference between 80-90k people dying of the H3N2 flu a few years ago (2017-18) and 150k people dying of COVID in a population of 340 million?

        3. You do realize that we accept the loss of about 8000 of us every single day without blinking? 8000 tragedies every single day and 99.99% of us don’t even notice the hearse save as a traffic delay?

          3M deaths annually and that’s a pretty good year…maybe even a great year if your team wins the Superbowl.

          The truth is, life is risk (a risk that increases radically with age & infirmity). Death is both inevitable and constant. Accept it , don’t accept it, be offended by it, rage against it — none of that really matters; it happens anyway. It happens even we love with all our hearts the people who die.

          As for the Virus deaths — no one really knows how many are truly incremental (in the same sense the death of young men in war is incremental) and how many are simply ‘pushed’ by WuhanV. A 94 yr. old man, who’s survived two strokes, suffers from heart disease dies today. It’s tallied as one of the 166K. But is it unreasonable to suspect that absent the virus he would have died anyway? If not today, then tomorrow?

          What matters is distinctly NOT that the nation do everything it can to save lives. What matters is that the nation lives…what matters is that this Dream which is America survives and continues to thrive. That is what we have asked and expected every generation to die to protect. Millions of us, to date, have made that sacrifice. Why should this generation be any different?

      3. Oh but they are warranted.

        A lethal dose of fentanyl is 2-3 mg. Much more humane than letting someone go slowly, drowning in their own lung fluids.

        They are elderly anyway. No more use for the tribe. Once you have taught me how to kill the walrus I do not need you anymore.

        Goo goo g’joob

    2. Half a million people are killed every year in hospitals by mistakes medical “professionals” make. And the only thing causing economic harm are the lockdowns.

      1. Yes. I am so sick of hearing about the covid caused economic disaster. It is an almost entirely man-made disaster. It was a choice our so-called fucking leaders made. It really makes me want to puke.

        1. Most of the economic damage is not from the lockdowns, but from changed behavior.

          1. Chicken/egg. Perhaps I underestimate how much people would have pulled back without the mandates. Perhaps you overestimate it. The media and medical establishment have a lot to answer for as well. There is no reason this had to happen this way. If people had kept on with their lives and the media wasn’t constantly telling us how scary it is, most people would barely notice that there’s a pandemic.

            1. Citation needed.

              1. Sorry, that’s not possible in counterfactual speculation.

                1. “ If people had kept on with their lives and the media wasn’t constantly telling us how scary it is, most people would barely notice that there’s a pandemic.”

                  Citation needed. You don’t get to just make stuff up.

                  1. so you didn’t understand his response to you.

                    1. Made me lol.

                2. Maybe if you tweet it, then link to that tweet, Tony will take you seriously.

                1. even the Spanish flu for most of it.

                  1. Which ended WWII.

                    1. I thought The Bastards ended WW2 when they killed Hitler in that French theater in 1944.

          2. media and government became a cyclic chickenittle story, so fuck off with your sophistry. When the average estimate of death is 30 million, it isn’t by choice but by ignorance.

            I was literally at a stand up comedy show the night before lock downs, it was packed. Government and media influenced the mask Karen’s and you are part of it.

          3. I call BS on that. I would definitely behave differently as a consumer and employee if there were no lockdowns.

          4. Most ALL of the economic damage is not from the lockdowns, not from changed behavior.


      2. Everything is China fault when they heard about pandemic they did not stop international flights but stopped the domestic flight which means they wanted to harm other countries as well.

        1. Where was the CIA and NSA on this one, have they confirmed this happened and if it did, was the President warned? I have yet to read anything on that subject…has anyone else seen an article on the intelligence community and ChiCom fights in January?

    3. The latest poll indicates that 332 million Americans believe 28 million Americans are dead of Covid already.
      But chill — Britons and Scots think things are worse over there:

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    5. With 20 million dying annually of all causes, one million extra would be bad, but better than a 25 to 40% economic loss. One way there is a chance, if labeled non-essential… not much. How does being labeled worthless/non-essential feel?

  2. More MSM lies.

    Even in the USA, the 150,000 COVID19 deaths are DEAD WHILE INFECTED. There is no supported evidence that all counted Wuhanvirus deaths in the USA were caused by the Kungflu virus.

    Georgia has been “open” for months and we have 4,000 deaths while infected. That is in 5 months.

    1. NYT is a Commie rag. They don’t even try to hide it anymore.

      Everything they say should require even more evidence to overcome public laughter, since almost everything that rag says…the opposite is true.

      1. California vows to fix coronavirus reporting system amid huge backlog of unreported tests

        Commifornia messed up their count of Kungflu cases.

        Looks like all that shutdown nonsense did nothing to prevent residents of that state from being infected.

    2. Even if you accept that line of reasoning as true, the scale of it is still relevant. Remember, all Flu numbers are pure estimates. We don’t really have accurate Flu numbers. The COVID numbers are more accurate, but even so, they may have all of the same inaccuracies as Flu numbers.

      I’m not sure how important the accuracy of the COVID numbers are…at least in terms of precision. If they are +/- 25%, that’s still enough to tell us enough to make decisions about how serious this is.

      So it’s certainly historically significant. In the top four pandemics of the last 100 years. But we have so grossly lost our societal acceptance of risk that our reaction is way way over the top. And THAT, plus the media’s complicity in failing to adequately account for risk/reward, is the real story.

      1. The flu numbers do not include the with metric. Many of the pneumonia numbers started with the flu. A good estimate of the overcount is Colorado that showed a 30% over count, which is important.

        Then there is the fact that 3 million Americans die every year, so even without that 150k is statistical noise. The one million is being thrown out to keep people locked down. It is a joke.

      2. In 2017, Flu there were 45 million Americans infected with Flu and 79,000 died directly from Flu related complications.

        There are millions more Americans who get the Flu and are asymptomatic or never get tested.

        Kungflu is not a big deal as viruses go.

        1. I mostly agree, but it seems that even if you accepted that the reported numbers were perfectly accurate, you could still state that “it’s a bad flu season but it’s not deserving of the reaction we gave it”. The better reaction would have been to “lock down” by age, not by area. That’s actually a bit more socially awkward, but it would have had a far higher cost/benefit ratio while still substantively impacting premature deaths.

          1. What do you mean by lockdown by age, for chrissakes? As an adult who’s over 65, that’s the most demeaning, insulting and offensive comment I’ve heard on here yet, or from anybody. As someone who’s over 65 who’s healthy and active, I’ve got just much right to be out and around and active as anybody else does! Don’t feed me bullshit! Thanks.

            1. And being over 65, you deserve a bit more credit for being able to make your own choices. So no lock-down by age, but it would have been far FAR better to say:

              “Hey, if you’re over 70 with diabetes, COPD, etc… maybe be a bit more careful because this might hit you harder than some other viruses.”

              Then let you make your own choices because you’re a fucking adult.

        2. My point being that, from a narrative construction perspective, there’s really no need to harp on the accuracy of the numbers. They’re not so inaccurate to matter. And thus the argument distracts from the greater argument, which is that this particular outbreak can be far better managed than via the sledgehammer approach.

          My primary argument when trying to compare the US to other areas of the world is that we are a large country with fluid borders and extensive travel. So State level border restrictions would never be Constitutional and could never work in any practical way anyhow. All we’re seeing is different regional curves, with the regions being affected later in the cycle having better outcomes because we’re more medically knowledgeable and we’re overall minimizing exposure to the elderly. Our entire outbreak is on par with Europe, simply with different regional start/end dates.

          1. They’re not so inaccurate to matter”

            100% over counting is more than just a little inaccuracy matter and in many situations it would be a crime

          2. All we’re seeing is different regional curves, with the regions being affected later in the cycle having better outcomes because we’re more medically knowledgeable and we’re overall minimizing exposure to the elderly. Our entire outbreak is on par with Europe, simply with different regional start/end dates.

            This guy gets it.

        3. Exactly. One thing to consider: we have a vaccine for the flu. We have flu-specific medications (e.g., Tamiflu). We have some herd immunity to the flu. We do not usually see flu victims overwhelm the medical system. And flu still manages to kill tens of thousands of people most every year, and 60K or more irregularly.

          We have no vaccine for the COVID. We have no COVID-specific medications. We have no herd immunity for COVID. COVID was close to overwhelming some parts of the healthcare system.

          And with all that, COVID is *only* killing 3-4x more than flu? Punk-ass virus.

          With our woeful defense against it, COVID ought to be running up the score like Georgia Tech vs Cumberland.

      3. I would bet if we tracked the Flu like we track Wuhan, the Flu would seem even worse.

        1. You actually hit upon my biggest question concerning the flu comparisons at this point.

        2. Don’t give them any ideas.

      4. Risk assessment is not a strong suit of many Americans. Think of the people who had heart attacks or strokes yet were unwilling to go to the hospital for fear of catching the coronavirus.

        1. “Risk assessment is not a strong suit of many Americans.”

          Americans will get in their car and drive 5 hours to go to the beach, then say “I don’t go in the water because I’m afraid of getting eaten by a shark.”…in some cases, even when the beach in question is on Lake Michigan.

    3. I can’t (or won’t because I’m lazy, take your pick) find where I saw this, but I remember reading that if we used the same criteria for COVID as we did for SARS, the death toll would be <20k…

      I'm definitely probably remembering that correctly, but the pandemic has absolutely increased my day-drinking, so… Umm… What was I saying?

  3. The pandemic will end on Nov. 4 (if Biden wins the election).

    1. This year has been a year of miracles.

      First, the riots prevented transmission of the Coronavirus (temporarily), then they figured out a way to live in harmony and bliss with no more police around, and now an election will end the pandemic.

    2. The pandemic will end on Nov. 4 (if Biden wins the election).

      Disagree. If Biden wins, places like Churches, bars, Gun Shows, and motorcycle clubs will become even more critically associated with outbreaks and need more lockdowns, testing, and contact tracing.

      1. I personally think that if Donald Trump wins this POTUS Election, the pandemic will go on and on, because he helped get us into this mess in the first place by deliberately stating that Covid-19 was a hoax, and lying to the American people by telling them that the Covid-19 virus was under control, back in December and January (when the Covid-19 virus was still relatively easy to contain and control), when, in fact, it wasn’t a hoax and they had it under control.

        1. You left out that he developed it in his office laboratory, and he was also the third man on the grassy knoll.

          1. Wasn’t that Ted Cruz with his dad?

    3. Will the ocean levels stop rising?
      Will he be awarded a nobel peace prize immediately?

  4. I doubt I am the outlier when I say my personal experience tells me this cannot be possible. Out of everyone I know and everyone they know, there has been one known case and it wasn’t fatal.

    1. The assumption behind the million deaths estimate is that everyone in the country gets infected and the death rate stays exactly the same as it has been. The first assumption is ridiculous. That’s not how it works at all. The second is possible, but things like this often become less virulent with time. When’s the last time someone died of SARS-1?

      1. SARS1 was never really snuffed out; it, in the words of my employer’s chief virologist, “mutated itself out of existence.” It’s an interesting counterpoint to the mass hysteria which predominates.

  5. We need a distraction from the riots.

  6. >>who has a good track record of predicting COVID-19 fatalities


  7. That scenario seems highly implausible based on what we know about the epidemic.

    Because it’s probably based on polling data.

    1. When I saw the polls saying the average American thought 30 million Americans had died i knew the media was more effective than I gave it credit for.

      1. Well according to Biden 150 million were killed by guns. so maybe 30 million isn’t so far off

  8. There is no fucking “surge”. There is only the completely predictable and foreseeable continuation of the virus spreading to places it hasn’t yet had its peak. This is fucking disgusting and absolutely shameless on the part of the people writing this shit.

    1. Is anyone else out there doing what Alex Berenson is doing? Sullum’s been fighting the more absurd pronouncements (like this one today) but Berenson has been consistently providing data that shows all of the fear mongering is over-the-top and all of the response has been a failure.

      Or have I just drunk too much Berenson kool-aid? ’cause it’s really hard to simply write him off as a cherry-picker given the data he presents.

      1. Very few are doing it.

        Alex has done great.

      2. I’ve seen several people who have been doing a good job of analyzing available data. I haven’t seen anything data based that shows any benefits to lockdown.

        1. You compare compare different outcomes in different countries and see what policies were in place.

          1. Yes, and it shows very little correlation between different policies and different outcomes. If you have something showing a strong correlation between lockdown severity and less death and infection, I would like to see it. Most “lockdown works” articles I’ve seen use models, not data to make their point.

            1. You’re talking to Tony. He proudly admits he is scientifically illiterate.

      3. Not really. A few months ago I started aggregating the data myself because it was so frustrating not getting the important numbers from the news. Then I actually signed up for Twitter because of Alex and his numbers. I am open to any new data, but by and large it looks like two things are true:

        Everything we needed to know about Covid we knew in February. By then we knew who was at-risk. That leads to #2 —

        The bar for “successfully” handling this was not killing your own people. Some governors (Almost all D?) managed to slither under that bar.

        1. ^^THIS^^

          Read John Ioannidis take on things from February on… His “guesses” have been closer to the truth than almost any other model/prediction/BS.

  9. Whatever it takes to keep the narrative alive.

    1. I hope that as these scare stories get more and more implausible people will catch on more. But I’m not so sure about today’s Times readers. I was sure that by now people would be sick of this shit. A lot of people are sick of this shit. I see them out acting like normal people all the time. But a shocking and terrifying number of people are still eating this shit up.

      1. I had very little faith in humanity before this. What has been shocking to me is just how far fear propaganda as well as government mandates can push most of the population to accede to major infringements on freedom. Even more eye opening is how many people have gotten to this point and still believe we need to shut down even more or we’re all gonna die. Maybe it’s just an incredibly vocal minority with enablers in government and media, but I’m afraid the silent majority of sensible people might actually be in the minority regarding this virus. It’s very difficult to hold any optimism for the future when I see so many believe the most unreasonable bullshit

        1. I hate to go there, but I feel like I have a lot more insight into how someone like Hitler can come to power now.
          I really feel like decent people need to do something, but I’m having a hard time thinking of much to do that isn’t ineffectual posturing or likely to end me up dead or in prison. So I’ll keep trying to inform and convince people where I can.

          1. Actually that’s a pretty interesting point!
            when it begins to crystalize that something institutionally wrong is being perpetrated, how do you know the correct, effective way of trying to correct it as Joe Blow?
            The attitude you describe could easily be seen as being shared by those ‘others’ during ‘that’ time [that shall remain nameless]
            … then again – i guess we do know how to react when some institutionally sanctioned wrong is happening – you burn your own cities down i guess. … but even that requires the tacit approval of our masters in gov.

      2. What do you mean by “normal” people, Zeb? You mean those who refuse to wear masks and to social distance from each other, or who insist on having large gatherings, house parties, etc.? Sorry, but I don’t buy that. A terrifying, shocking percentage of “normal” people here in the United States as a whole are refusing to wear masks and to social distance, which is why the United States is having so much difficulty controlling the Covid-19 virus. We can thank President Donald Trump for promoting this “normalcy” shit.

        1. mapol
          August.11.2020 at 12:04 pm
          “…Sorry, but I don’t buy that…”

          Cowardly pieces of lefty shit should crawl in a hole and stay there until tey feel safe.

        2. I hope this finally pushes regular people to start beating the shit out of impertinent progressives for all this pandemic panic.

  10. Wasn’t there a study recently done in India, where they discovered that 52% of the slum population of Mumbai (very little social distancing there) either had or had previously contracted Covid and the death rate was very low?

    1. SShhhhhh!!! That doesn’t fit the “Fear Porn” narrative.

    2. T-cell mediated cross immunity is a wonderful thing. Those slum dwellers probably have immune systems like the Incredible Hulk.

  11. It is fully irresponsible for The NY Times to publish fraudulent and fake information. They should be forced to retract and issue a public apology.

    Won’t happen because leftists always pump out fake news.

    1. The New York Times had an article in this Sunday’s paper on how bad policy was responsible for the death of the elderly from CoVid. The multi-page article had no mention of New York City, just how poorly Belgium managed its nursing homes.
      Couldn’t believe it …

    2. Nope: It’s the Right wing who’s pumping out this fake news.

  12. superspreading events — as in nursing homes, meatpacking plants, churches and bars — are major drivers of the pandemic

    As long as the NYT is going to lie about the pandemic, they might as well continue the gross exaggerations about the contribution
    of religious institutions as well. Anyone that won’t acknowledge that the NYT is a front for Marxists at this point is an idiot or a liar.

    The NYT is without question the enemy of freedom. The question is, how can you answer the bad speech with more speech when the other side controls the medium? Does the answer have to include crosshairs on these editors at some point?

    I won’t advocate for their arrest, as, unlike them, I actually have integrity. But, I might be willing to face a jury of my peers if I could take enough of them out to make a difference.

    1. >>superspreading events

      today the radio told me my vacuum was a superspreader and in these times now more than ever I need to be certain my vacuum something something

      1. “HEPA Filter”, I’d guess.

        1. dont be a tool of Big HEPA….
          Biggy HePa? … sounds like a rap name
          -good idea for a song…
          …num num num, de apockety a dum ding ptoooo
          King Otto and Biggy Hepa together in one recording!

          OT… is KTel still a thing?

      2. Just put a custom made cloth mask over it. That will satisfy the wankers.

    2. So don’t read the NYT. The US has some of the best medical scientific orgs in the world. They have websites.

      You people are trying to impose your paranoid goddamn nonsense conspiracy theories and utterly irrelevant neo-Nazi name-calling on the rest of us. How many Americans have to die as a result of your stupidity before we get to shoot you?

      1. “”You people are trying to impose your paranoid goddamn nonsense conspiracy theories and utterly irrelevant neo-Nazi name-calling on the rest of us.””

        Obviously reads the NYT and not the best medical scientific orgs.

        1. Do me a favor and link me to where you’re getting your information about the pandemic from.

          1. Largely from the medical director at my job. Sorry I can’t link that for you.

              1. Yeah, because a medical director is just a guy. Forget that he is a MD with years of experience in practice and in population health.

          2. So if the nyt has writers calling for socialism, and for nationalistic revolution for socialism, and cheering on ny persecution of jews while blurring stories where jews get attacked, and forming new seeking codes, I think that makes it pretty easy to see who the neo nazis are.

            1. Socialism and a Jewish genocide are always the left’s prescription to fix everything.

          3. From the CDC, namely their numbers. The ones that show the deaths as a yearly statistical blip while their political side convinced Americans 30 million people died.

      2. You people are trying to impose your paranoid goddamn nonsense conspiracy theories and utterly irrelevant neo-Nazi name-calling on the rest of us. How many Americans have to die as a result of your stupidity before we get to shoot you?

        Spoken like a true Marxist. Particularly because I offered no conspiracy theory and your response had nothing to do with what I actually wrote. Like you, the NYT have clearly studied both Marx and Alinsky. The combination of fallacious argument, regurgitated rhetoric, and hatred for religion is glaringly apparent. That you pounce on neo-Nazi as a descriptor, like someone of that bent is going to call out Marxism with so many tantalizingly hateful epithets to choose from, speaks volumes about who exactly is making shit up in this scenario. People are on to you. We know what you want. We will fight you.

        If one person dies as a direct result of my stupidity, I would stand without resistance in front of the wall and face the firing squad without a blindfold. Can you say the same, coward? I daresay, if your blindness is not willful, there is no amount of science that will get you to ever admit that you made an error in believing the lies about super-spreader events linked to churches.

        By the way, I was alive when your liberal gay predecessors decried the call to close bathhouses as evil when it would have done wonders to stop the spread of AIDS and saved tens of thousands of lives. I have always been fine with allowing people freedom to risk their own health. My opinion doesn’t change depending on who is being denied freedom to make their own choices.

        1. You people have got to get a real fucking person into your YouTube algorithm every now and then.

          There are no Marxists. You don’t even know what you mean by Marxist. When alt-right assholes say Marxist or cultural Marxism, I can’t help but assume they are using the same 100 year-old antisemitic slur. Sorry.

          With respect to the actual topic, the f sex ta are out there. You don’t know more than the CDC or the Mayo Clinic. You just don’t. So stop spreading lies. Lies kill.

          1. There are no Marxists

            I know exactly what I mean by Marxist, and so do many others. Marx wrote a manifesto. People read it and adopted the ideology. That ideology has lead to the death of more than 100 million souls at the hands of their own governments. It has only brought misery and death. Yet, it still has adherents who think that they can achieve what the Soviets, Chinese, NorKs, Cambodians, Cubans and Venezuelans could not, a socialist utopia. Yes, lies kill, and socialist lies kill the most.

            You can’t gaslight people who understand history.

            And please, fling some more inappropriate epithets, you pathetic moron, because Marx was, without question, antisemitic. Your comments do nothing but expose your ignorance. of history.

            1. The Nazis were antisemitic too, I think you might learn if you deeply study the nuances of history, and they also had a habit of calling all the people they wanted to exterminate Marxists.

              Since there are no Marxists (assuming you’re mean people advocating a revolution of the proletariat and dividing up all the means of production), then you are literally talking about no one. You are equating everyone to the left of Ayn Rand a Marxist. Explain why that lie is helpful.

              1. Except for the people openly calling themselves marxist…

                Who the fuck are you gaslighting aside from yourself?

                  1. “About 18 percent of social scientists in the United States self-identify as Marxists, compared to only about 5 percent who identify as conservatives, Dunn and Shields reported.”

                    Lefty bullshit is entirely too easy to call, shitstain.

              2. Since there are no Marxists

                Petty. Little. Cunt.

                You can’t gaslight people who understand history.

                1. So you understand that every serious person in American politics is a capitalist. You understand that this includes the ones who call themselves socialists, and that socialism and communism aren’t the same thing?

                  Just because republicans have decided to go off the edge of the cliff in terms of radicalism doesn’t automatically mean everyone else made the same choice.

                  1. So let’s translate this from Prog-speak and see what we get:

                    So you understand that every serious person in American politics is a capitalist has selfish interests. You understand that this includes the ones who call themselves socialists will screw you twice as hard because they sincerely believe that whatever is good for them is good for everyone, and that socialism and communism aren’t the same thing are a distinction without a difference, up to the point of collectivization, which is where the commies double-down on the stupid and really start killing people?

                    Just because republicans have decided to go off the edge of the cliff in terms of radicalism doesn’t automatically mean everyone else made the same choice.

                    The second part is stricken because it has no translation into non-Prog.

                    1. I think Tony at least partially believes this bullshit. Most Martian’s like him are at least partially delusional.

          2. And by the way the recommendation to close the bathhouses came form the CDC. But the governments in San Francisco and California didn’t want to follow it because it was political suicide.

            God, you are such a petty little cunt.

            1. By all means let’s have a debate about a totally unrelated crisis from 40 years ago.

              1. Same epidemiologist in fauci. Same fuckups from the cdc under fauci. Fake science such as human touch based aids that caused schools to shut down water fountains. Saying aids effects everyone instead of focusing on those most at risk.


                No similarities you ignorant fuck.

                1. Yes, it was Fauci who made a hash of initial AIDS policy, definitely not all the hysterical bigotry of politicians.

                  1. So when claiming irrelevance didn’t work you throw out a red herring.

                    Now you are just being an insufferable little cunt.

                  2. Yes, not wanting GRID to spread like wildfire because rabid little queens like you are unwilling to control your deviant lust was hysterical bigotry. Even though the primary means of GRID transmission is guys like Tony raw dogging each other’s rectums anonymously at places like bathhouses.

          3. So stop spreading lies. Lies kill.

            I don’t know about lies, but Marxists? They definitely kill. Just like you threatened to do here:

            How many Americans have to die as a result of your stupidity before we get to shoot you?

      3. Those are the same organizations with under a 50% reproduction rate? Science. And especially scientists, are human. They make mistakes. Yet you treat then in more reverence than a born again does God. But for some reason only when they back your political beliefs.

    3. Yeah, I remember how the outbreak in the Smithfield meat-packing plant in Sioux Falls was guaranteed to turn South Dakota into the next hot-spot for Covid-19(84)… Over 300 cases were directly traced to that plant, and over 1 person died (2 if we’re being exact)!

  13. I see the world in numbers, math, and always have.

    330,000,000 American Citizens. Considering recent developments in our understanding of previous T-Cell Immunity from other coronaviruses like the common cold (the previously unknown “dark matter” that has been driving down case numbers through Europe and elsewhere) it appears that “herd immunity” sets in when about 20% of the population is estimated to have become infected with coronavirus. After that, cases drop dramatically, and the virus burns itself out

    And estimating that there are about 12 times the number of infections than known cases (5,000,000 in the U.S.), we are at 60,000,000 infections (very near 20% of our population).

    Now, with an Infection Fatality Rate of approximately 0.2% (the current estimate), we get 60,000,000 x 0.3% = 180,000 deaths.

    Sounds about right to me.

    1. Yup. Herd immunity percent (like everything with this virus) as been vastly overestimated.

      1. If only someone had said, back when we were talking about Zika, that herd immunity is a myth and that it’s conceptualization outside of mathematical equations serves only to support socialist agendas.

        1. Why? Herd immunity (find a different word for it if you don’t like that) is real and important. And it’s about as spontaneously organized as you can get. It’s totally contrary to socialism. No plan is needed, no one has to be in charge. The human immune system and normal social interaction patterns mean that when a large minority of the population has been exposed to a disease, it will largely stop spreading.
          The fact that some people use equations based on over-simplified models to determine it is a different problem.

    2. Which puts on track with Sweden’s numbers.


    3. The Mayo Clinic estimates it’s 70% infection before herd immunity sets in. Will you get a vaccine if one becomes available?

      1. Will you get a vaccine if one becomes available?

        No Tony Clifton, I’ll let my immune system do the job it has been doing my entire life and deal with it.

        Got a problem with that? Wear a fucking mask.

        Got a problem with me not wearing a mask? Wear two fucking masks and mind your own business.

        1. So you don’t have the first fucking clue what you’re talking about.

          I love this fantasy land where the inhabitants of a libertarian fucking blog are all bragging about their robust immune systems. A bunch of fat poxy-faced goobers. Unreal.

          1. So you don’t have the first fucking clue what you’re talking about.

            It’s that kind of insightful and well reasoned rebuttal that has people falling all over themselves to praise your intellect.

            Please, share what you know about my immune system, what you know about the CFR for this particular infectious disease for Americans of my age, what you know my age to be, and how it is hubris to believe the human immune system is ill prepared to deal with yet another respiratory infection that presents a trivial threat to one’s health unless you have already lived longer than the average American, have a co-morbidity that puts you at mortal risk from dozens of other infectious agents, or live in a state with a Democrat governor.

            Or fuck off. One will be equally as valuable as the other.

            1. You are irrelevant. Maybe you will survive. The concern of anyone who isn’t you is how many people the policy you are advocating will kill.

              1. Maybe? Probably. And it isn’t close.

          2. If he is under 55 then he has the same risk as driving to work every day. Panic!!!

          3. I love this fantasy land where the inhabitants of a libertarian fucking blog are all bragging about their robust immune systems. A bunch of fat poxy-faced goobers. Unreal.

            I’ve been out pretty much every day of this fucking “pandemic,” before, during, and after the lockdowns. I haven’t gotten so much as a sniffle despite supposedly dangerously exposing myself.

            Considering the ChinaCoof tends to kill off fat people the most, your speculation about the general state of my and the health of others on this board appears to be wishful thinking rather than having any basis in reality.

            I still don’t know anyone in my familial or social circle, across several states, who’s actually caught this shit.

            1. Oh I’d much rather you’d all be fit and robust, and I hope that’s the case. Let it not go unsaid that I agree with the libertarian position on coronavirus that “fuck off and die, fatties.” Now explain to me why such a vast portion of libertarian policy is “fuck off and die, ____”.

              1. Now do heart disease.

      2. “”Mathematicians at the University of Nottingham in the United Kingdom and Stockholm University in Sweden realized that different groups of people within a population spread infections at different rates.

        When they updated the classical model to take into account rates of transmission in different age groups and among people with varying levels of social activity, the threshold for herd immunity fell to 43%.

        The research, published in Science, suggests that social activity is a more important determinant for the threshold than age.

        “By taking this new mathematical approach to estimating the level for herd immunity to be achieved, we found it could potentially be reduced to 43%, and that this reduction is mainly due to activity level rather than age structure,” says Prof. Frank Ball from the University of Nottingham, one of the authors of the study. “”

        1. “It is debatable whether (classical) herd immunity for COVID-19, which is believed to lie between 50% and 75%, can be achieved without unacceptably high case fatality rates.”

          I’m just trying to include the number of dead humans in the conversation.

          1. But since study after study shows roughly 50% have t-cell immunity, that means the threshold falls to about 20%, which is what we see time and again across the world.

    4. Hey, stop reading my private texts!

      I had a similar (but differently derived) estimate in a conversation with a friend of mine back in March. The case studies from the Diamond Princess, USS Roosevelt, and [whatever that town was] in Italy pretty much killed the idea of 100% susceptibility. Like someone said upthread: we knew everything we needed to know about this virus in February.

  14. Filed under “shit that will never happen.”

  15. What surprises me is that masses love bad & catastrophic news. If you try to give them some perspective and numbers, they recoil in horror and go back to their panic mode. It is some sort of Stockholm syndrome.

    1. It is some sort of Stockholm syndrome.

      Persecution complex. If society and the conditions of the world aren’t conspiring to make my life misery, then I’m responsible for my own misery.

  16. Leave it to Darwin.

    1. Plus, think of all the carbon emissions being eliminated

  17. If it is that serious then why doesn’t the Times shut down completely? Why wait for someone else to command you to do what you already think best?

    Oh, I get it. They want everyone else to take the economic bullet in order to keep them healthy.


  18. These numbers are impossible, going by the numbers predicted by the greatest scientist Neil furgason, 150 million died of hoof in mouth, and the rest died of Sars. The model shows that there are no people left to die

  19. If the million is going to be in New York city can someone advise how we speed this process up?

    1. I’m afraid NYC is already done with their epidemic. There will be very few additional deaths from the ‘rona there.

  20. Jesus, Sullum, highly implausible?
    How about total bullshit?
    Never, ever, use anything in the New York Times as a source for anything! Half the time they publish, the damn date on the front page is wrong.

  21. Without “much more aggressive shutdowns,” a New York Times editorial warns, “well over a million” Americans “may ultimately die” from COVID-19. The paper does not cite a source for that estimate, which seems highly implausible based on the death toll so far, projections for the next few months, the gap between total infections and confirmed cases, and a crude case fatality rate that continues to fall.

    So the NY Times published something again that’s full of shit. Where’s my shocked face, and does it count as a mask?

  22. The stupidity and ignorance demonstrated in the pathetic disjointed US pandemic response would be a global joke if it wasn’t so unnecessary and tragic. What a shithole.

    1. Have you seen what’s going on in Australia with their government sendi6nf in their own mitary to enforce lockdowns? Italy, from where I just returned after 6 months, reports new surges everyday. No one is listening. But what do you do in countries like australia where they use their own milirary to enforce shutdowns?

      1. The citizens of some countries just don’t give a fuck about each other. Not even their own families.

        The fucks who say “everyone needs to get it” would rather everyone’s vulnerable loved ones died.

        I don’t blame people for putting a gun to their heads.

        1. If you had covid19 and came at me to infect me, I’d stand my ground and drop you in a heartbeat.

          1. Stupid pieces of cowardly shit need to crawl in a hole and stay there.
            Fuck off and die; the world will be a better palce.

    2. Is it cool and retro to say “obvious troll is obvious” yet?

      1. My comment was both accurate and on topic.

        That’s why it upsets you.

        Can you spell “Sturgis”.

        the definition of “troll”.

        “ In Internet slang, a troll is a person who starts quarrels or upsets people on the Internet to distract and sow discord by posting inflammatory and digressive,[1] extraneous, or off-topic messages in an online community (such as a newsgroup, forum, chat room, or blog) with the intent of provoking readers into displaying emotional responses[2] and normalizing tangential discussion,[3] whether for the troll’s amusement or a specific gain.”

  23. Ah yes, and may they all be NYT readers who believe this rot.

  24. Even the “no intervention” scenario wouldn’t result in a million deaths. After the mass protest super-spreader event there was a surge in cases and then deaths, but that is now starting to decline as well. No intervention might even reduce future deaths faster, as more people get exposed. To get to a million deaths the current rate would need to continue unabated for 3 years or so, which never happens with an infectious disease.

    1. I’m pretty sure that with no intervention we would be no or perhaps slightly worse off today in terms of deaths and much better off in every other way.

      1. You need to stop vomiting your ignorance all over this thread. Do you people have no standards of evidence whatsoever? You’re just making shit up. Why do you think that’s OK?

        1. “””You’re just making shit up. Why do you think that’s OK?”””


          King of making shit up now wonders why it’s ok if SOMEONE ELSE does it.

          1. Zeb, not to imply you are doing that.

        2. “”Do you people have no standards of evidence whatsoever?””

          You fool no one with this. You laid bare your standards back in December with the impeachment hearing and it was pretty friggin low. If someone said they over heard someone talking to Fauci on the phone, you would think it’s good enough.

          1. All you have to do is read reliable sources. If it has some fat fucking alt-right blogger’s fat face on it, it’s not a reliable source.

            1. So you think the quality of articles are not based in the actually quality of the article, but by the identity of the source.

              Yes, double down on your idiocy.

              1. Yes. Idiot. That’s exactly what I’m saying. How do you judge if the information is good if you don’t know the source is reliable? Did any of you make it to sixth grade?

                1. By judging the fucking information on its own merits or lack there of dumbass.

                  Triple down on your idiocy.

                  1. Oh oh let me guess, by “merits” you mean “this makes Trump look somewhat less terrible.”

                    1. Trump?

                      SMH, at least a 6th grader could have stayed on topic.

                    2. I take it you are some kind of medical professional? Are you an expert in the relevant field? Do your opinions differ significantly from those expressed by national and global authorities?

                      I don’t actually think any of us have a good enough grasp to be declaring what the policy should be. So I’m not actually advocating for a policy, I’m just trying to figure out why I should listen to you if and when you diverge from a mainstream assessment. I have every reason to suspect that the prevailing political narrative is affecting your objectivity. As in be sure not to discard any studies that happen to not be good news for Trump.

                    3. so your appeal is you have to be a scientist like Ferguson before you can weigh in? Lol.

                      There are a shit ton of people who understand modeling and statistics that regularly discredit the shit coming from government agencies.

                  2. Come on, Tony thinks Fauci is a competent and credible scientist rather than a proven incompetent who had the wisdom to spend all of his life working for government and learning bureaucratic politics.

                2. “ How do you judge if the information is good if you don’t know the source is reliable?”

                  Just like that, Tony proudly states his belief in The Genetic Fallacy. As it’s name suggests, the genetic fallacy results from attacking the source or origin of information, rather than the information itself. Just ask John Edwards about the Genetic Fallacy. There were a lot of Tonys who balked at the National Enquirer’s reporting on Edwards’ affair, but were later surprised to find out the famous gossip rag was accurate.

                  1. It wasn’t deemed accurate until other sources verified it.

                    1. Verifying the info didn’t make it accurate Tony. Keep doubling down on stupid though, it’s a great look for you.

            2. Dude, there are plenty of people with different views who are not right wing paranoids. Get over it. There is always a debate to be had. This is a disease people are still figuring out. If you think there is a settled answer or any “settled science” on this virus, you are full of shit. The people you are listening to are being hyper-precautionary (assuming they aren’t completely evil). Fine. But that’s not the only way to look at the world. There always has to be a debate.

              1. You’re keeping your mind so open your brain is falling out. If your approach to facts is to pick and choose the ones that make you feel better, or that you think boost Trump’s poll numbers, or for any other reason than that they are what the scientific community knows (or doesn’t know), you’re not acting in good faith.

                Republicans governors and Trump himself are being more precautionary than you and the alt-righters here. What does that tell you?

                1. Zeb is 100% correct.

                  Quadruple down on you idiocy.

                2. At this point it’s just painful how absolute you are in your opinions regarding a subject that we lack about 80% of information on.

                  1. All I’m doing is telling people to stop saying things they don’t know.

                    1. All while doing that which you condemn. Ironic.

            3. All you have to do is appeal to authority from Tony’s pre approved authority list.

              1. ^ lol

        3. No one has good evidence or facts on the present epidemic. What we do have is lots of historical epidemics of very similar viruses and they all follow similar patterns. This isn’t some completely new disease the likes of which no one has seen before. It’s a flu like illness. We know how those work.
          Sure, it’s possible that this time its different. It is not likely and that’s not a reasonable assumption to go on when the consequences of the lockdowns and such are so dire.

          1. If we had done no lockdowns we would have seen many hundreds of thousands more infected. That’s what the global information suggests. The rates tracked perfectly logically with the policies that were or weren’t in pace. Keeping people away from each other prevents spread of a highly infections airborne disease. So you need to explain why more people getting the disease is a good thing.

            1. The key word is ‘suggests’. Yes, but you are now ignoring the fact that the original lockdowns were meant to spread the infections over a longer period of time. What ‘appears’ to be happening now is the same thing that happened to New York City months ago, a surge in cases, followed by some deaths followed by a tapering of the virus. The CoVid is behaving similar to other viruses in the past in that manner. What some are witnessing and pointing out, here, is the lockdowns don’t ‘appear’ to mitigate the infections, as once the lockdowns release the virus jumps back up again. I witnessed this in AZ. Lockdown, release, lax behavior as no real threat seemed to present itself in spite of the constant barrage of TV and internet sites telling me it was right there waiting to kill me, lax release led to spike, spike then started to fall. Similar to NYC but on a much smaller scale. Deaths, yes. Sickness, yes. Recovery, yes.
              What I think we are saying here is those invested in the Pandemic keep throwing in more measures like a gambler throwing chips at a bad hand. Sometimes it is better to fold while you still can.

              1. The problem that people like Tony suffer from is the dreaded failure to embrace reality and instead move to goalpost shifting. First it was to flatten the curve and now it is apparently no one is allowed to get it. Just bizarre.

                But in all fairness, no one in leadership positions has been willing to actually explain reality, rather we play these games of, “oh, just socially distance, wear masks, and lockdown to save lives,” yet no one explains the overall goal.

                The reason why is because the overall goal is either lockdown until there is vaccine or people are going to continue to get the disease and we just manage it. This is the reality that continually gets ignored because people don’t actually want to face it.

                1. It’s a psyop, plain as day

              2. So a much stricter lockdown should be on the table. You’re describing a situation that is worse than we feared.

                I must object to a policy of just letting it run its course. That’s not a fold, that’s a deliberate failure. I don’t want to go through what friends of mine have gone through, a disease so bad that it can leave you with PTSD. If you think we can’t do better than natural selection, then someone besides you needs to be making policy.

                1. A slight breeze can leave psychotic leftists with PTSD.

                  I like you, Tony, but you’re really not fit for survival

                  1. Undoubtedly, I have yet to see any real-world evidence contradict the thesis of the incisive documentary Idiocracy, except it was highly optimistic on the timeline and the credibility of presidents.

                  2. I don’t want to go through what friends of mine have gone through, a disease so bad that it can leave you with PTSD.

                    Funny how I literally know not a single person that’s even tested positive for this, much less shown symptoms, while you seem to be surrounded by specimens of humanity with hyper-fragile physical and emotional constitutions.

                    Maybe you guys should start taking better care of your health and you’ll be less susceptible to getting your shit pushed in by a fucking coronavirus.

                    1. It was a doctor.

                    2. So what?

                    3. Not an unhealthy or emotionally fragile person.

                2. I don’t want to go through what friends of mine have gone through, a disease so bad that it can leave you with PTSD.

                  I call BS… You don’t seem like the kind of person who has actual friends.

            2. So instead of 50 million infected we would have had 50.5 million infected? And that would have justified the lockdown and spending four trillion dollars?

              What a maroon.

            3. That’s what the global information suggests

              No it doesn’t. It says we would have had the same number but spread more closely temporarily dummy.

        4. One word for you, Tony; Sweden

          1. Go on, tell me how the concept of Sweden somehow makes Trump not a clown fire.

            1. Go on, tell me how the concept of Sweden somehow makes Trump not a clown fire.

              ACKCHYUALLY… {snort}

              Trump is not currently on fire. Nor has he ever received formal training as a clown in any of the accepted forms or schools…

  25. “The paper does not cite a source for that estimate…”

    It’s an editorial, you see; don’t need no stink’n source. And there’s an election on besides. I suspect a majority of NYT readers, who definitely consider themselves smarter than the average citizen [by virtue of simply reading the NYT] will take it all in hook line and sinker.

    1. It has to be assuming that without lockdowns absolutely everyone will get it. If the death rate is ~ 0.3%, there you go, a million dead.

      Of course, by that logic, a million people must die of the flu every year too.

      1. I work in a hospital emergency room. We have Covid + patients through here not infrequently. We all wear the necessary PPE [face masks and eye protection] routinely; “PAPR” [powered air purifying respirator helmets] for known infections and thus far none of us who work here have gotten it. At least not that we know of, though many of us have been tested.

        Assuming that “everyone” in the country will get it is just an example of an op/ed writer playing very fast and loose in order to come up with a scary headline.

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  27. And how exactly are we supposed to get to herd immunity, regardless of what percentage applies, if social distancing and masks are effective? The libtards either don’t want herd immunity, or they’re lying about masks and distancing. (Both possibilities are of course true.)

    1. The real question is how we get to herd immunity if 1/3 of the country refuses any vaccine once one is available.

      The method you’re talking about is letting the maximum number of people die and being satisfied with that. I don’t know if you knew that.

      1. Do your part by convincing your lefty anti vaxxer friends to take the vaccine. They are legion compared to the Breitbart crowd.

      2. Do your part by convincing your lefty anti vaxxer friends to take the vaccine. They are legion compared to the Breitbart crowd.

        1. Citation needed that it’s lefties right now. I bet you’d be surprised. But I’ll tell them they’re idiots who want to kill people with their stupidity just the same as righties. Believe it or not I’m not actually a blind tribalist sheep like all you independent-thinking free spirit libertarians who just happen by accident to think Trump is a great leader with a slim figure and the most tremendous hairdo.

      3. I’ll bet you $100 that we have effective herd immunity long before there is a vaccine that works.

        1. This statement doesn’t even make sense.

          1. Perhaps not to you.

          2. It would make sense to a 6th grader.

          1. So maybe slightly better than a flu vaccine.

            1. “So maybe slightly better than a flu vaccine.”

              Or maybe much better… 2018-19 flu vaccine was only 29% effective (estimated). So not a really high bar to clear.

        2. This statement is amorphous and not easy to validate one way or the other.
          I’d be inclined to agree with your statement, if I were a betting man.

  28. Is this an editorial from the NYT or a campaign ad for Biden?

  29. Reason brand optimism ™ just feels like a sad joke right now.

  30. Without “much more aggressive shutdowns,” a New York Times editorial warns, “well over a million” Americans “may ultimately die” from COVID-19.

    And how many more Americans would die as the result of very aggressive shutdowns nationwide? These Fear Porn pieces always speak as if there were nothing on the other side of the ledger—maybe because the writers are elites who don’t anyone who is suffering from the lockdowns.

    1. You literally never cared about the negative consequences of macroeconomic realities until Trump told you to.

      1. Can you cite that?

        1. Tony just makes shit up and claims authorizes back him up.

      2. Are you psychic? How would you know what I care about? And what do you know about “realities”?

  31. Most of the country would be in last phase of reopening if the protests never occurred.

    These people have NO shame. I want to see Tony run his mouth about progressives “maximizing” society again. They certainly maximized the pandemic in this country, as the heavy handed regulations they favor and bluetard states are almost solely responsible for the spread of this disease. NY killed more people than entire countries.

    They are fucking morons. FL was reporting less deaths and cases in May than CA despite having expanded reopening. Most of the big spikes in George occurred in counties that saw huge protests. The libtards subjected the nation to 2 months of additional covid hell for no fucking reason. Whatever mistakes Trump made earlier this year, the democrats compounded it by a factor of million.

    And now whatever riots and reduction in police they achieve will destabilize society and the economy at a pandemic – when max effort should be made to safeguard the nation’s assets as it reaches recovery. Insanity.

    1. Citations needed. You want me to play, put on some big girl panties and start citing facts instead of fever dreams for once in your goddamn life.

      Ftr I thought the protests were a horrible idea. Almost as horrible as Trump rallies where pandemic hygiene measures were deliberately and ostentatiously ignored. Herman Cain RIP.

      1. No one here wants you to play.

        1. [Your mom joke.]

      2. why do you ignorant ask for citations when above say you’ll flatly reject them if you don’t agree with them?

      3. Citations needed. You want me to play, put on some big girl panties and start citing facts instead of fever dreams for once in your goddamn life.

        If you’re talking to the NYT, they can’t hear you.

      4. Yeah, the LA public health director already admitted that the protest likely spread the disease in LA. Patients linked to protests have been already spotted in FL. I can’t post links here, google is your friend.

        It’s scientifically impossible for a crowd that size to NOT spread the virus. Half of them wore less effective paper masks. The only question is by how much. Every current spot experienced a huge spike around June 16th, two weeks after the protest. Like I said, Florida was reporting less deaths and cases than FL (by a considerable margin) all throughout May.

        Trump deliberately ignoring hygiene protocol (refuted by attendees) had less impact than Cuomo sending infected patients to nursing home. And where did the virus originate? China, a mecca for modern American progressives.

        Progs kill most people in this country even before the pandemic. Blacks and whites kill the most people, and they make up the majority of the dem voting bloc. Do the math. And now a few bluetard states spread death to the rest of the country. “OH but Trump”

        1. edit : Florida was reporting less deaths and cases than CA (by a considerable margin) all throughout May.

  32. So the NYT agrees with the State of Missouri… sue the bastids! Cynical dereliction on the part of the Chinese Communist Party in mishandling its illegal biological weapons has caused massive loss of life, and that civil asset forfeiture, fines and reparations are in order. After all, if a U.S. nuclear reactor were to leak 43,000 curies of krypton with zero casualties, the NYT would again be leading the charge for damages. So how about a Red Chinese germ lab killing millions worldwide by incompetence or deliberate attack?

  33. “The paper does not cite a source for that estimate…”

    It’s an NYT editorial (opinion), they don’t need to provide a source for anything, they just have to say it and make it sound like it’s official. Like the 2.2 million claim.

  34. The real pandemic is a media addiction to porn–news porn. There is real science that shows how our brains change when we view porn, and why we can’t get enough. It’s more addictive than heroin. The reason why the MSM wont let coronavirus go is because they can’t. Their stories and estimates become more and more outrageous. They can’t stop. It’s a hardcore fixation. That’s why most of us havevr returned to our lives. It’s a freak show in the news. Ever see a seedy porn?

    1. Or it could be all the dead people.

      1. The news only cares about dead people as far as it creates clicks and views. Funny how you are a perfect example of the kind of people they aim their panic porn at.

        1. How many dead people are enough for you to care? Should I care about dead people less than or more than your right to discriminate at the workplace or your tax rate?

          1. I love this argument. How many dead people does it take for you to care? Car accidents? Drug over doses? The fact that 225,000 people die each month in this country? Where’s the 24/7 drumbeat of constant panic porn about those things?

            That’s right, those things don’t get clicks or views. It’s not that I don’t care about people dying, it’s just that I understand context and the reality of the situation. I advocate for protective measures (e.g. wearing masks and social distancing), but I don’t cave into extreme hysteria over a disease that is in the end extremely survivable.

            It is called balancing the realities of life. And getting so paranoid and panicked about COVID is not remotely helpful and actually hurts things in the end.

            It would just be nice if we could be honest about the disease rather than taking the “it’s all a conspiracy” or “we’re all gonna die” approaches. Unfortunately, nuance and calm don’t sell newspapers or garner viewers. Moreover, nuance and calm don’t allow for unfettered self righteousness, which is all the rage these days.

            1. I hate your argument, by contrast, because, and correct me if I’m wrong, it actually amounts to “Public policy shouldn’t concern itself with people dying in large numbers because… people die.”

              How wonderful! So much time freed up to keep ourselves busy worrying about your tax rate.

              1. Tony is shocked people die every year. Utterly shocked.

                1. Tony lacks a tremendous amount of reading comprehension. But, when you’re a person who sees Nazis around every corner, what would you expect.

              2. Wait, that’s your actual takeaway from my statement? You’re not participating in some absurdly reductionist logic, you actually think that was the basis of my point? Wow. Binary thinking is your ballgame apparently.

                1. If we got rid of seatbelts, even more people could die in cars and that would make COVID deaths even better! Let’s just line people up and shoot them and make that COVID death look like a real walk in the park.

                  I’m not saying you can’t advocate for a policy of letting nature take its course (though when the dead start numbering in the hundreds of thousands, your assessment of its seriousness becomes increasingly a matter of opinion). You just can’t say your idea is the best, because it is the one that results in the most death and probably the most economic disruption to boot. It’s a failure of an idea. The idea is to fail.

                  1. Yet, that isn’t my position. How often do you resort to straw man arguments?

                    1. All the time. It’s the internet.

              3. Yes, Tony. Public policy isn’t the answer to every problem.

                1. Just the problems that you personally care about. I’ve known libertarians for a time.

            2. Tony the commie isn’t bothering to tally up the numbers of all those dead black kids, killed by other black kids. 2,000 since May? Wow.

            3. I am interjecting here because car accidents and other trauma? My personal area of sub specialty. I served on level 3 and level 2 trauma boards. Drug overdose? Let’s talk about that. Something I learn and care about very much. I cannot even count the hours I have completed in that and I do not prescribe anything.

              So while you were not paying attention many people have devoted much of life to those two issues alone. Let us talk about cancer, heart disease, liver or kidney failure, pneumonia. Just because it did not hit the political news does not mean the rest of us were ignoring those diseases. Far from it and much progress has been made.

              False dichotomy. This new infectious disease is very serious. Granted that all we have had are blunt tools. Quarantine sucks. So thank you for bitching about it.

              In time there is the possibility of better vaccines and treatments. Every day you hear about them.

          2. I don’t care about people dying, particularly from natural causes, because I’ve known death is an inevitable consequence of life. Known that since I was 7. Did your parents not have the talk with you, or let you have a pet growing up?

            This is either very selective outrage, or you’re….no, it can really only be selective outrage. No one is this oblivious the facts of life.

            1. So why the fuck should I care about your tax rate? Or your freedom at all?

      2. 3 million die every year. Do you cry for every one?

        1. Only the ones I kill.

          1. Only the cute ones

        2. Only the ones I might have prevented.

  35. Why do you act surprised when the NYT says this? Or WaPo for that matter? These are partisan newspapers who work for the Democratic Party. The Democratic Party believes a Covid-19 doom narrative can help elect Joe Biden. That’s why the NYT says a million could die, not because they have any facts to back that up. They probably wanted to say a billion Americans could die from Covid-19 but realized they couldn’t quite get away with that (but they really could, the average American whose opinion is sway-able by a NYT editorial probably has no clue what the population of the US is.)

    1. What newspapers do you read?

      1. Ones that don’t openly print Chinese propaganda and then go back and scrub the printed releases when called out.

        1. Sounds like a good start. Is every article in the New York Times Chinese propaganda, or just the articles that have implications that make you feel icky in your tum tum?

          1. Yeah, pretty much every article.

  36. Without ‘Much More Aggressive Shutdowns,’ The New York Times Warns, COVID-19 Could Kill ‘Well Over a Million’ Americans

    And at the end of this pandemic when COVID-19 subsided and there is not a “Well Over a Million Americans killed nobody will remember the New York Times news. But if any does say anything about they can just claim that it was “an opinion.” Well then it must be that every thing that they have written about Trump must be opinions cause very little of what they have written has come true. Some will say just give it a little more time. To that I will say there are two possible dates that if what they have written does not come true then it never will. The first date is January 20 2021 and the next date will be January 20 2024 which would be the last day he would be President of the United States. After these two dates all the news that The New Your Times and others media that also hates Trump has reported will become only opinions and will be forgotten! But opinions are reported as news are in reality only lies designed to hurt Trumps ability to be elected before his first election and reelected now that he is running for his second term in office.
    I have never said this except here in the last few years. It is time for conservatives to start holding these news outlets who have been out to destroy every republican and conservative running for office to be remembered by the voters and not give even one dime to any of them by buying their products nor buying from their advertisers.

  37. That scenario seems highly implausible based on what we know about the epidemic New York Times.


  38. They sense that the 2020 election is slipping away, so naturally the Times is going to advocate for that policy which will bring about the most suffering.

    1. Reading rightwing propaganda is all fun and games until it starts telling you you’re winning when you’re actually losing. Of course that is kind of the entire point of rightwing propaganda, isn’t it?

      1. Do you know how much of a partisan kool-aid drinker you are, or do you think you’re actually objective? I mean, both right-wing and left-wing propaganda literally do the exact same thing. Yet, you only get incensed about one side’s use of propaganda. Being that way is so bizarre to me.

        1. In theory yes, but in practice you are both-sidesing the issue, a tactic that ever serves Republican interests (because they are almost always the worse actor).

          I can find one or two left wing blogs that engage in propaganda that matches the mendacity of a FOX News, but certainly no cable channel or newspaper. And not most leftwing blogs in this country at this time. Whereas by contrast the entire Republican message apparatus up and down the ladder from president to internet neo-Nazis all use the same lies and tactics, obviously in support of political power rather than truth, and with the willing aid of the goddam Russians as the goddamn cherry on top. It’s all so absurdly recognizable.

          Valuing an empirical approach is a central preoccupation of liberals right now, and it’s no concern at all to the right. Favoring one team editorially is not propaganda. Propaganda is a specific thing. It’s what results in you believing lies usually in service of making you irrationally hate some other for the political advantage of people who don’t care about you except as a pawn in their power games.

          1. Wow, you are a full blown kool-aid drinker. The amount of ignorance or straight up gaslighting in this one comment is so jaw dropping you have actually left me speechless. I mean, just wow… speechless.

            1. One of us may be in a cult, but the kool-aid comes later when your predictions fail to come through and you suffer disillusionment. It’s called “forcing the end.”

              1. Nah, it will be giving the finger to someone demanding to shut down a country of 330 million people again because they know there’s nothing for them in the end but being worm food.

                1. Democrats offered to save the economy in time for the election and thus boost Trump’s chances, and Republicans said no, and Trump took personal responsibility for it by throwing a PR stunt at it.

                  Maybe the Republican cult is in the “forcing the end” stage.

                  1. “offered to save the economy”

                    They could have done that by not locking down.

                    1. You can keep telling yourself that if you like. If you’re going to go through life believing literally whatever you want as long as it lets Republicans off the hook, there’s really no point to conversation.

          2. Valuing an empirical approach is a central preoccupation of liberals right now


            1. They’re going through a nerd phase. Which must be why the Republicans are going through a “kick them in the nuts” phase.

          3. “Valuing an empirical approach is a central preoccupation of liberals right now”


            This from a guy who thinks masks work.

            You do realize social distancing and masks are non-pharmaceutical and arbitrary measures rooted in the precautionary principle right?

            Yet these so-called liberals claim it’s science.

            1. It’s not like they forgot to do experiments. I’m glad we agree that anti-maskers are being the least rational player here.

  39. Please make it stop. Stop the projections and models. Stop the scare mongering and finer pointing. Stop assuming those who disagree with you are your political opponents, broadly speaking. Stop the simplistic thinking. Stop the arguing and the yelling and the masks and the dots on the floor and the constant Red Alert.

    I’d prefer to get coronavirus than read one more damn article full of speculation about what it might do to us. Life is risky. Being born is a death sentence. This is not the bubonic plague.

    (And for the love of all that is holy, can we PLEASE stop having the exact same argument every day. We are far beyond any “Groundhog Day” jokes.)

    Seriously, make it stop. Let me be alive again. I’ll take my chances. If you don’t want to take your chances, stay home and take advantage of technology like Instacart and Door Dash and curbside pickup and all manner of delivery services. But don’t make ME stay locked up.

    Enough. Please. Uncle. I give up. White flag. I just can’t take any more.

    1. It’s not bubonic plague. Bubonic plague is treatable with antibiotics. And the most widely accepted theory about how plague in the Middle Ages was ended was by strict quarantines. Quarantine is just one of things we have to do once a century or so to mitigate mass death of the human population. People who want public policy off their backs ought to be the last ones to advocate policy that kills millions for the greater good of everyone else. Sorry about your cabin fever.

      1. And the most widely accepted theory about how plague in the Middle Ages was ended was by strict quarantines.

        Sorry, we’re not locking down again. Trying to do that is going to get politicians killed and lockdown supporters beat to death.

        1. Thanks Obama.

      2. Oh look, you wrote an LSAT question! I think the answer would end up being, “All of the above.”

      3. Strict quarantining of the…..SICK.

        Not the healthy.

        1. Quarantine of the contagious, which sometimes but not always, and not in this case, means the same thing.

  40. Without ‘Much More Aggressive Shutdowns,’ The New York Times Warns, COVID-19 Could Kill ‘Well Over a Million’ Americans

    I’d like the NYT to suck my fat fucking dick. But, like the shutdowns, we just can’t get what we want, can we?

  41. Given how little we know about this virus, one million dead Americans is certainly possible, especially if a vaccine fails, is too weak (50% effective, 25% use due to anti vaxers=12.5% immune, not enough to do much) or wears off after 1 year. We’ve had 150K deaths and likely to have 250K by 2021. A moderate drop over time with occasional flares could easily reach 1M by the time we reach as much herd immunity as were gonna get and/or it becomes less virulent.
    What’s harder to defend is the “much more aggressive shutdown” lefty wet dream part. Using a mask in public for the time being and other reasonable precautions we are presently taking appear to be doing the trick.

    1. Some trick.

      Curious. How does anyone know?

  42. “The closest thing is in 1917, they say, the great pandemic. It certainly was a terrible thing where they lost anywhere from 50 to 100 million people, probably ended the Second World War,”

    President of the United States of America.

    1. Just a gaffe.

      1. Like Yo Semites? The t shirt already exists. I checked.

  43. The Times projection is nothing more than fear-mongering at best and at worse an attempt to collapse the United States as a capitalist country and remake it into a socialist country.

    Socialism touts for each according to their needs, the reality is socialism is not a class-less society. It closer to a monarchy or feudal system where power is in the hands of a few. Under socialism people “might” get what they need, but will never get what they “want”. Except for the few who will be living off the fruits or the labor of others.

    Under socialism the Times will remain and have protected status, however they will be subject to the whims of the elite and be forced to tow the official line. Basically a propaganda arm of the official party. Of course the Times has basically been a propaganda arm for the Democrat Socialist Party for several decades so it won’t be much of a change.

    1. Whereas in pure capitalism we can have all the objective journalism money can buy.

      1. There is no such thing as objective journalism Tony. Never has been.

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  45. Perhaps its time to admit that lefty politicians and media outlets are actively feeding fear and paranoia of a virus that is historically not that bad. That’s not to say the deaths and illness is anything to lightly dismiss, but in historic context, it pales in comparison to past pandemics.

    Our politicians and media should be dealing with and reporting facts and analysis of the full cost/benefits of various societal actions. Has anyone on the left/media rigorously looked at the costs of lockdowns to small business, families, kids, and longterm economic outcomes? Because I certainly haven’t seen it.
    Our local medium sized city’s school district….rated one of the worst in the state….is going to 100% online education in the fall. Poverty and broken homes are rampant in that district and these kids are being sacrificed to the altar of ‘lockdown’. We can argue about the real benefits of public education in urban areas, but having a bunch of teenagers on the streets for months is not going to be good. If there were strong parental figures in play the district wouldn’t be as bad as it is….as many of the education focus parents/guardians fled to the suburban districts already. which are all going to a hybrid plan with reduce on-site hours to maximize distancing.
    And no one is talking about the cost to those kids in the urban school district….it’s appalling. They will be left behind more then they already are, out of school, no organized sports, and only a fool would think there won’t be any reduction in transmission risk, because they are all going to be socializing anyway.
    It’s evil and its driven by political reasons.

    1. And to expand on the evil being done to our communities. On the edge of the urban center, we have county sports fields….a huge taxpayer funded complex of soccer, baseball, etc fields.

      Our governor is pushing for stopping of all youth sports, rec, club, and school-based. Yesterday, he ordered the county sports fields closed and police were manning the entrances.

      So…no baseball pick-up games. no amateur play, no nothing.

      evil. totalitarian evil. for political purposes.

      1. Seriously? I’d arrest these motherfuckers for cruelty against humanity.

      2. Quebec is 3/4th retarded of Ontario and some U.S. states.

        They’re allowed sports back but under conditions but at least kids are playing all over the place. Preventing them to do so would have been tantamount to child abuse.

        Our daycares and athletics have resumed since June and so far all is fine.

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  47. I don’t even know what to think about this virus, but I’m pretty certain the New York Times is not where I’m going to learn the truth about it.

    I’m wearing my mask and staying away from people as much as I can, but I have a sneaking suspicion that on November 4th this virus will suddenly become much less of a threat.

    1. Google scholar is a good start. You can link to all of the major medical and scientific journals.

    2. I bet money that the virus will be all Biden’s fault after that date.

  48. Back some months ago, I wrote in email to a friend:

    I wonder how many of those people demanding longer lockdowns would feel if things were *really* locked down. Being able to run to the grocery store or Wal-Mart or picking up your favorite take-out…those are all ways and places where you can infect other or be infected, even if you’re wearing a mask.

    So I mean *really locked down*: no grocery stores, no Wal-Mart, no fast-food drive-throughs, no pizza delivery, no Uber-Eats or Door-Dash or whatever. No Amazon or Target online. No home delivery. No jogging, visiting a park, etc. You’ll stay in your house or else–we’ll allow you to wander around in your own backyard (backyard only), if you have one. For food, what you’ll get is a government truck will deliver a box of food for one person to eat for a week, and drop off the boxes at your front doorstep based on the number of people in your household (hope you didn’t lie on the census form!). Each week, you will be told to line your household up at the door, one at a time, so they can be counted; this will inform the number of food boxes dropped of at your house. An armed escort will accompany the delivery person to ensure that no one opens their doors while the delivery person is within 20 feet of the door. Don’t do that, because you could get shot. The delivery personnel and their guards will be in full MOPP gear.

    If someone in your house needs medical care, call 911 and an ambulance will be dispatched. People in full MOPP gear will pick up your sick loved one and take them away for treatment. If they live, you’ll see them again.

    The ONLY “essential” personnel will be those involved with treating COVID and for producing and delivering the food. These people will be issued uniforms and ID lanyards. So there’s no reason for anyone one else to ever venture outside of their house and anyone on the streets who is not in uniform obviously has no business being there, and will be subject to immediate detention in physical quarantine facilities.

    Let them imagine a real lockdown for a few minutes then ask the question again.

  49. I dunno… shutting down the NYT aggressively probably would save a lot of lives.

  50. “well over a million” Americans “may ultimately die” from COVID-19.

    With no time constraints, this statement is meaningless. I mean, “Ultimately” 100% of all people will die… How many have “ultimately” died from… Influenza? Plague? Pneumonia? Tuberculosis? Measels?

  51. The new york times isn’t even worthy toilet paper.

  52. Hello, NYT —-

    2+2=5 doesn’t make good epidemiology.
    I would like to say they knew it, but I can’t.

  53. The point is not accuracy. The point is not ‘reasonableness’. The point always is hysteria, fear, and the continuing shrill advocacy of economic disaster in the name of “even one death is one death too many”.

    The Times simply continues its discreditation process…. no longer “all the news that’s fit to print”, it embraces instead “whatever it takes to advance the narrative”. Thus the New Pravda…thus the Times ‘Truth’. It’d be disgusting if it weren’t so completely & pathetically expected.

    Confirmed Case Rate is a meaningless number. Like the drunk who lost his keys in the park, looking for them under the streetlight : “This is where the light is!” We count always what is easiest to count.

    As Mr. Sullum notes, even the CDC — notorious for its abysmal failure to do the one job it was created to do — even the CDC admits that serology testing reveals a WuhanV INFECTION rate which is, at a minimum, 10X the case rate. They tell us, in other words, that the number of asymptomatic ‘infected’ is so entirely common that rather than the precisely counted 5.2M confirmed cases (people who are sick enough to get tested), there are more likely 52M Americans who have actually had the virus and developed the antibodies.

    Does the new Pravda report this? Do we calculate the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) thus revealed ….do we highlight that the multiplier effect might actually be significantly higher (Stanford’s initial April studies indicated a 50X expansion)?

    Do they go back and re-tally risk percentages? Do they tell us that if we are unlucky enough to catch the virus, that we would still have a 90% probability of not getting sick enough to even notice? Do they let us know that if we actually catch the virus…and if we’re among the few 10% who get noticeably sick….that we still have a 97% chance of recovery. Do they tell us that our odds of living, given the infection, are 99.7%? And do they emphasize that the reason the odds are that ‘bad’ is only because the calculation is heavily weighted by the early months of the pandemic when we were not protecting the most vulnerable among us (the aged and significantly co-morbid)? Do they highlight the steadily improving virus therapies? Do they give us a current IFR which would certainly be much lower?

    Nah! Why bother?

    THAT kind of truth might lead the easily cowed 330M to actually question the incredible social-cultural-political-individual destruction wrecked by the economic lockdowns….the Chamberlain-esque decisions of the so-called Elite (the white-coated wizards whispering at their sides) to sacrifice it all for ‘peace in our time’.

    Far easier to preach fear.
    Far easier to advocate cowardice.
    Risk is something ‘those other guys’ do….we prefer the Netflix life in the locked-down cave.

    Long past time we wake the hell up!

  54. I get it now.

    The US is suffering from a modern media version of “the boy who cried wolf”.

    After being duped into WW1 and dragged Into WW2, the Middle East conflict and lied to by every corporate elite mainstream media and political power wannabe, when a real threat arrives, many don’t believe it.

    It’s truly tragic.

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