Coronavirus

Americans Are Nowhere Near Herd Immunity to COVID-19

Blood test study finds that only about 10 percent of Americans are immune to the virus.

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We are nowhere near achieving COVID-19 herd immunity according to a new study in the journal JAMA Internal Medicine. The researchers reached this conclusion based on an analysis of routine blood tests sent to commercial laboratories through the end of September taken from nearly 178,000 people in 52 U.S. jurisdictions. In this seroprevalence screening study, the researchers are seeking to detect what proportion of Americans have developed disease resistance antibody proteins produced by the immune system in response to infections by the COVID-19 virus. The study relied upon the results of routine blood tests while excluding tests taken from patients suspected of having COVID-19.

Herd immunity is the resistance to the spread of a contagious disease that results if a sufficiently high proportion of a population is immune to the illness. Some people are still susceptible, but they are surrounded by immune individuals, who serve as a barrier preventing the microbes from reaching them. Herd immunity is generally achieved via mass vaccination. An accompanying commentary by three public health researchers noted, "Unfortunately, history has shown that although herd immunity resulting from infection can curb pandemics, it does not eradicate diseases."

Earlier in the pandemic, various researchers made speculative calculations (many of which I reported) suggesting that COVID-19 infections were much more prevalent than had been detected and that the herd immunity threshold for COVID-19 might be reached if only 15 percent of the population were infected. The recent massive surge in infections belies these hopeful hypotheses.

Most researchers now believe that achieving the herd immunity threshold for COVID-19 would require that close to 60 to 70 percent of the population will have to have been infected or vaccinated. Without a vaccine, that means that around 200 million Americans would have to get infected before we reach this threshold. Data scientist Youyang Gu over at the COVID-19 Projections website estimates that perhaps 50 million Americans have so far been infected by the virus.

The JAMA study finds that by the end of September fewer than 10 percent of people in the U.S. had evidence of previous COVID-19 infection using currently available antibody tests. The researchers note, "Seroprevalence varied across regions and between metropolitan/nonmetropolitan areas, with estimates as high as 23% in the Northeast and 13% in the South, while estimates in the Midwest and West were less than 10%." They conclude, "Our results reinforce the need for continued public health preventive measures, including the use of face masks and social distancing, to limit the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the US."

The JAMA commentary observes, "In summary, a robust and well-designed seroprevalence study using residual serum samples from across the US has found that herd immunity to [COVID-19] is nowhere in sight, even as the COVID-19 pandemic has raged on for a year." The commentators conclude that "achieving herd immunity through natural infections will take years of painful sacrifice that are tallied in numerous deaths, severe long-term health sequelae, and widespread economic disruption and hardship. Let us hope that safe and effective vaccines help avoid the consequences of naturally developing herd immunity to COVID-19, as they have reliably done for so many other respiratory viruses."

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  1. Data scientist Youyang Gu over at the COVID-19 Projections website estimates that perhaps 50 million Americans have so far been infected by the virus.

    What percentage of those people died and how does that compare to the seasonal flu?

    1. This virus is about 4 times as deadly as the flu virus based on available therapies. As the vulnerable population segments get vaccinated and therapies improve that number should go down.
      (Im a physician who treats the sick in our two local hospitals.)

      1. Wouldn’t it make more sense for the vulnerable population to take precautionary measures than to impose uniform restrictions on everyone? And even if you are a vulnerable person, should you lose the choice to take the risk of getting ill and even dying?

        1. Absolutely. Mandates are counterproductive in my view.

          I’d advise the vulnerable to be super cautious for the next couple months. It would be unfortunate to die when a solution is literally weeks awa. The rest of the population are the incredibly low risk and should go about their business. If you are under 70 without significant medical comorbidities, your risk of dying is lest than 0.5 percent.

          1. That’s a little high. The WHO listed the IFR at 0.05 for under 70 years old.

            1. See what you did there? Mortality in >70 yo’s is ~5%. In those under 75? 0.05%.

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              2. Yet overall the IFR for covid is .38% vs .10% 10 year flu average.

                Key findings:

                Adjusted mortality from COVID-19 decreased from 25.6% in March 2020 to 7.6% in August 2020.
                The standardized mortality ratio declined from 1.26 (95% CI, 1.15-1.39) in March to 0.38 (95% CI, 0.12-0.88) in August.
                The probability of death decreased by 18.2% from March to August 2020, even when adjusting for changes in demographics and clinical severity.

                https://www.cdc.gov/library/covid19/112420_covidupdate.html

                Covid is a bad flu season….

                1. Deaths per year from flu: 12,000–61,000

                  Covid deaths this year: 250,000

                  A very bad flu season. Luckily hospital beds are an infinite resource. Oh wait they’re not and you’re spreading lies to hurt people.

                  1. If we counted everybody with a tiny piece of flu in their system as a flu death, we’d see 300,000 every year.

                    1. excess deaths are way up. it’s not imaginary.

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                    3. Of course it’s not “imaginary”.

                      But lockdowns are killing a whole lot of people as well. Those deaths we can ACTUALLY stop.

          2. Here in GA, between the ages of 40-49, there were 4K out of 16.4K people who tested positive hospitalized. The number of deaths is thankfully much lower at only a few hundred to date in that age bracket, but 1 in 15 who test positive being hospitalized is not what I would consider very low risk.

            I’m 40, but I would definitely prefer the mRNA vaccine to getting infected with the virus.

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  2. Its not September anymore and frankly I’m no denier but i have lost all respect for the scientific community for the lies they have perpetrated for the Covid, for the Power of government over all things, may we bow down to them

    1. Your illusion is that the scientific community is making these big decisions and/or advising these mandates. For the most part we don’t get asked, and the growing body of research is not even considered. The truth is that scientists and physicians are too busy performing research and treating very ill patients. The politicians who make these demands in the name of science have little or nothing to do with science.

      1. Nice Try. The “Politicians” are being advised by their own public health authorities. AND, as we know, public health is taking all its nods from a small set of scientists (Or, as in Fauci’s case: A science politician) who have the press and journalists in their hands. EXACTLY exhibited by this essay by Bailey. The deeper and more profound immunity strategy of the body is the T and B memory cells and not only is this information YEARS old, but it’s also being reported everywhere. And surely it’s something you, as a physician can suss out yourself? Antibodies fade, yet they are not the body’s only immune response. Its old news Doc.

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      2. So Fauci and the CDC aren’t part of the scientific community? The WHO? Good to know.

        1. Regardless of his background, I think it’s fair to call Fauci part of the political community. He’s made far too many mistakes since the start of the pandemic to be considered anything but a quack.

          1. Fauci has has done what he has always done going back to the AIDS epidemic I don’t think I would classify what he has done as mistakes but as his attempts at control and limiting all medical to what he wants even when shown better

            1. It could be that, too. Either way, it makes him a quack.

              1. Now do Scott Atlas.

                1. You just hate Scott Atlas because he’s on the Trump team and a supporter of herd immunity, kids back in school, etc….which doesn’t surprise me but it’s disingenuous to suggest he isn’t a highly credentialed medical professional who hasn’t had the history that Fauci has of playing the politics Dr. roll.

                  I’d go so far as to say’: He’s clean.

                  1. The only reason he has a job is because he contradicts scientists in order to tell Trump what he wants to hear.

                    You people should never vote again.

                  2. Once an idea becomes fixed people just selectively reinforce it. You see that here.

                    For example since most deaths occur in older people, who apparently don’t count, there is nothing to worry about.

                    The only thing that counts is death. A 50 yo in an ICU for 3 weeks on assisted ventilation with permanent lung damage is not a thing to worry about.

                    It is no worse than the flu. The death counts are fake in a giant medical/pharm conspiracy.

                    Sweden proves you don’t have to do anything.
                    Sweden now has 10x the number of cases it had a month ago and climbing.

                    Masks, social distancing, and limiting contacts does not limit airborne infectious disease. Thus disproving 150 years of medical “science”.

                    Naturally occurring herd immunity is common and will certainly occur.

                    The “scientific community” is lying.
                    They just got together I suppose and decided to make shit up for fun and profit.

                    Zinc don’t forget zinc.

                    1. Masks, social distancing, and limiting contacts does not limit airborne infectious disease. Thus disproving 150 years of medical “science”.

                      150 years of medical science made no such claims to those things, dumbshit. Masks weren’t deemed critical until around April of this year. Social distancing is a recent recommendation as well. And “limiting contacts” was always limited to people who were actually sick, not an entire fucking population.

                    2. Zinc is no good without quercetin and that quercetin must be delivered to the respiratory tract. So stick jalapenos up your nose while chewing pennies.

                2. Scott Atlas. I read a good deal of the classic book he put together. MRI of the Brain and Spine.

                  Excellent in diagnostic neuro radiology. If I wanted to know the best pulse sequences to diagnose a recurrent glioblastoma he would be the guy.

                  I have no idea how that makes him an expert in infectious disease and public health.

      3. Here in California we have Social Justice Warriors in key public health positions. At the state level, we have Sandra Shewry, MPH, MSW from Berkley with no clinical or laboratory experience in Medicine. In Los Angeles County, we have Dr. Barbara Ferrer. Here lack of qualifications for guarding the public health of 10 million people include a Bachelor of Arts in Community Studies from the University of California, Santa Cruz: a Master of Arts in Public Health from Boston University, a Master of Arts in Education from the University of Massachusetts, Boston and a Ph.D. in Social Welfare from Brandeis University. Again, no clinical or laboratory experience. No wonder we are seeing science free decisions in California.

    2. I believe in science but I don’t believe in politicians who claim to make decisions based on science.

      1. I don’t believe in politicians who claim to make decisions based on economics, environment, aerospace, military strategy, engineering, public health and sanitation, or anything else. I wouldn’t let a politician tell me how to fix the leak in my bathroom sink.

  3. “achieving herd immunity through natural infections will take years of painful sacrifice that are tallied in numerous deaths, severe long-term health sequelae, and widespread economic disruption and hardship. Let us hope that safe and effective vaccines help avoid the consequences of naturally developing herd immunity to COVID-19, as they have reliably done for so many other respiratory viruses.”

    So if the vaccines don’t work, what’s the alternative? JAMA’s appears to be to keep up the mask mandates, lockdowns, and various curfews, bans, and the like indefinitely. And that would be fucking stupid, not to mention immiserating. Unless we all completely isolate, including no immigration, no interaction except through technology, and get food and drink delivered, the virus will not stop until we reach natural heard immunity. And in the meantime, our governments will have kicked us in the balls repeatedly, and others will have died from suicide, late-discovered illnesses like cancer, etc.

    What a great plan from our betters.

    1. As a physician I want to be the first to say that my colleagues should have stayed the hell away from political punditing. We function best when we offer advice and treat only at the consent of the ill. When Fauci (whom I think is technically very capable) stands up and calls for mask mandates, he crosses a dangerous line from medicine into politics. Masks work. Moral encouragement works. Mandates don’t.

      To answer your question: Therapies are improving. We now use steroids, more efficiently manage respiratory conditions. The new antibody treatment also looks promising. We will get through

      1. Thank you. I wish more health professionals took a wholistic view – some people value liberty and making choices for themselves, including the attendant risks.

      2. After the gossip going around about Bill Gates wanting to sterilize half the human race in vaccines, I think I’ll pass.

        1. Cheaper than a vasectomy! But also based on a cherry-picked, out of context quote. He claimed that people in the third world have less kids if they have a greater assurance that their children will survive into adulthood, and thus vaccinations can reduce overpopulation.

    2. If vaccines don’t work (and recent headlines indicate they do work), then yeah, we have no choice but to gut it out. That’s been obvious from the start, hasn’t it? Our elected officials haven’t been all that clear in stating it but it sure has seemed like the plan was “stay at home until you get vaccinated”.

      Those same officials have been even less clear about your no-vaccine scenario. I’ve never even heard it discussed. We’ve just all been acting as if of course there will be a working vaccine, how could there not?

      1. And then it appears and has a 94% efficacy! TA DA!

        Which, no one seems to understand, simply lowers one’s risk ONCE infected.

        Ugh

        The beat goes on

  4. I would love a law that if the government of a state shuts down a single business then no state employee or elected official can get paid until all business are allowed to legally operate

    1. I want to know why state employees don’t have to sacrifice while private employees do.

      1. Because fytw

      2. And public employee unions.

  5. “Seroprevalence varied across regions and between metropolitan/nonmetropolitan areas, with estimates as high as 23% in the Northeast and 13% in the South, while estimates in the Midwest and West were less than 10%.”

    This may explain the “surge” in cases in the Midwestern states, rather than the relatively less stringent government containment measures; the virus is only now making its way through these states.

    1. Indeed its mostly not been around here till recently

      My midwest county had less than 500/100k (0.5%) up until September
      Up to 6% now thanks to November

      World not ending
      Cases locally and statewide declining without police state dictates from on high
      Kids are still going to school face to face, and absentee rate is typical for this time of year.
      Only thing that’s changed for me is my church last week voluntarily switched from in person (which we’d been doing since June) to online only for a few weeks.

    2. This is exactly the case. The virus is going where it hasn’t, just like everybody knew it would in March.

    3. That has looked like the obvious explanation to me all along.

    4. exactly if these people were smart they’d look at the growth pattern and see it all natural frankly will have to happen. Bring in extra hospital staff to the new infection areas. we won’t get that though do to TDS because they love themselves some misery amongst them other people

    5. Seroprevalence studies are biased towards the chronically ill and hypochondriacs, because they’re the ones who are least likely to do remote doctor visits and most likely to get bloodwork done.

      Few of the healthy people who had covid without symptoms are bothering to be tested. Most people are healthy.

      So these studies are missing out probably 90% of the people who already had this crap and won’t get sick again.

  6. Sweden, Reason’s favorite approach to the pandemic, admits the same.

    “We see no signs of immunity in the population that are slowing down the infection right now.”
    -Anders Tegnell.

    “In a recent OECD study, Sweden consistently ranked among the hardest hit nations in Europe, as measured by relative Covid mortality and infection rates. It was also the slowest at containing transmission.”

    https://fortune.com/2020/11/25/sweden-herd-immunity-antibodies-lockdown/

    So now they’re closing bars at 10, limiting public gatherings to 8, closing some museums and libraries, and interestingly enough, they have a PM who has gone on TV twice to beg the population to adhere to social distancing guidelines. Something our President isn’t famous for.

    As a far as a national approach to the pandemic, they’ve probably done more than we have…nationally (remember, both Dakotas are states here, not there). However, both countries at the end of the day aren’t going to have been responsible for the most successful approach. Funny- Tucille and Sullum haven’t brought up Sweden in a few weeks, when it was all they talked about in the summer.

    1. stay scarred you pantshitting pussy.

    2. So now they’re closing bars at 10, limiting public gatherings to 8, closing some museums and libraries, and interestingly enough, they have a PM who has gone on TV twice to beg the population to adhere to social distancing guidelines. Something our President isn’t famous for.

      Considering social gatherings and restaurants/bars aren’t even close to being the primary source for outbreaks, this is particularly stupid.

      1. Inflicting misery seems to be the primary goal.

        1. The mayor of Denver just went on a trip to Mississippi for Thanksgiving while telling everyone in the city to stay home for the holiday.

          Go see Grandma tomorrow. The oligarchs who put these insane, vindictive restrictions and recommendations out certainly will be.

          1. Several California legislatures just went to Hawaii for some meeting that couldn’t happen on zoom or in California.

            1. The workaround seems to be to hold your family gathering in a state that isn’t under restrictions. If none of you live there then meet at a hotel.

              Of course it would be great if some federal court had the guts to overturn the whole mess as a clear violation of the right to peaceably assemble. That’s the argument I’ll use if caught at it.

    3. Better people commit suicide from anti-social distancing than possibly die from COVID.

    4. Define “the most successful approach”

      1. See any East Asian island. And don’t point out that their techniques have varied wildly.

        1. So if the US was a small island with few airports and we closed down our borders we could match the East Asian islands?

    5. You can’t wait for more Swedes to die though and that’s creepy as fuck.

      1. Tbe problem is the swedes aren’t dying at any significant rate as compared to other countries.

        1. Exactly.

          1. Do these lockdowners (JAMA?) not understand that there are deep levels of immunity? T and B cells hold the memory while antibodies fade …as they are expected to do.

            The seroprevalence clown show is washed up ….why the hell is JAMA still reporting on this

            1. That brings up another important point: we know that cold and flu viruses always get less harmful over time. Has anybody tracked that for Covid? (And same question, about how they mutate over time, so that no vaccine can work for very long.)

            2. The editors at JAMA know that the body has memory of infections w/o having the actual anti-bodies floating around. They also know that Corona is seasonal. They know that response to the virus varies as a function of latitude. They know all of this cause it is pretty much foundational science at this point.

              Regarding Sweden their case to death ratio at their peak was about 5, now what is their case to death ratio? 133 two orders of magnitude difference. And their case rate & death rates have already peaked. How could their case rate have peaked w/o massive intervention and the assumption that they are miles away from herd immunity? The answer it that T cell plus the connector based models (SIR, SEIR) plus current seroprevelance show herd immunity to be functionally more like 25% or so.

              1. All over Europe that case rates are nosing over…btw. The best part is that they turned over before the lock downs could have possibly helped. So once again, lock downs don’t do anything but add to the death tolls.

        2. Check out ourworldindata.org. They’ve got a great interactive chart.

          Sweden currently has something like twice the cumulative per-capita deaths as Canada, close to four times as many as Germany. That’s often explained by the “dry tinder” theory (which may be true, might not, I have no idea).

          In recent deaths, I think Sweden is right in the same ballpark as Germany, Canada, Denmark, and the world average. They’re dying at much lower rates than the US or UK. I don’t know if that’s for real or caused by differences in how countries report death statistics.

          1. Their “data” uses estimates and projections and models. Not reliable for anything current.

    6. Why is it funny? Do you think you’re right is more right then someone else’s? Is there only one way? Go to China, weld yourself in. I’m pretty sure anything the Dakotas do or don’t do is infinitely better in what it means to be a person than China/New Zeland/Etc. I’m glad you have your opinion but it’s different than a lot of others.

    7. Get up off of your damn knees.

    8. Funny- Tucille and Sullum haven’t brought up Sweden in a few weeks, when it was all they talked about in the summer.

      you’re really going to be upset when and if this so-called crisis is over, aren’t you…? what are you going to shit your pants over when that goes away…?

  7. Lockdowns now, lockdowns tomorrow, lockdowns forever!

    1. See Jackand Ace, above.

      1. See George Wallace.

        1. Or just listen to the Drive By Truckers sing about George Wallace.

  8. I was wrong about herd immunity on this thing. I was not wrong that lockdowns and banning certain behavior have proven to incredibly destructive and the gov have been driven insane by powerlust. Also the populace has succumbed to a mass hysteria far more dangerous and destructive than the virus.

    1. similar. early on, it looked like we were going to get a lot more immunity from people who were never symptomatic. that ended up not being the case.

      but government lock downs were never a good idea. in addition to the destruction and suffering they create themselves, there is also another unfortunate consequence….. the backlash…. the second the government closed or mandated anything, it became political….. and now there are common sense precautions people can voluntarily take that some are refusing to just because it got political… this never should have been political.

    2. thank twitter. Social media has been the worst thing for fear mongering.

    3. So stop succumbing to mass hysteria. Oh, you mean people taking rational precautions so they don’t get sick and die? And perhaps you think that rather than worry about their own health, they should worry about unemployment numbers and GDP?

      The only people being hysterical are those of you who can’t handle taking safety precautions without soiling your frilly panties about the lizard people.

      1. Totalitarian edicts by tyrannical governors are not “people taking rational precautions”.

        1. Calling safety precautions totalitarian edicts = hysterical.

          1. Laying waste to small business is not a safety precaution. But you knew that.

            1. I do not favor that. I favor massive get-through-the-pandemic spending so that no business goes under and no jobs are lost. Literally the only thing standing in the way of such a policy is Mitch McConnell.

              1. I favor not having to pay for political decisions whose outcomes were entirely predictable.

              2. Congress passed a stimulus bill that was about 18 percent of our GDP and damn near what gets spent in a given year at this point.

                Claiming nothing was done is a flat-out lie.

                1. I didn’t say nothing was done. But that stimulus is expiring. So if you want to blame anyone for jobs lost, blame Mitch McConnell for not allowing a new one to come to vote.

                  1. Do you frequently spend more money than you actually have? I bet your bank loves you, and lets you have all the free pens a man could want.

                  2. That’s exactly what you said, you lying fuck.

      2. Yes, people are being hysterical when most of the cases are coming out of college dorms, prisons, and nursing homes–areas where many people are cloistered together on a continuing, daily basis.

        Social gatherings and restaurant visits are towards the bottom of the list for outbreaks, and anyone who claims otherwise is ignorant or a liar. Going outside to exercise and going to visit Grandma for a a couple of hours is not spreading the coof.

      3. Who is dying though? The average age of death from Covid exceeds average life spans. Are these the people “taking rational precautions so they don’t get sick and die” in your mind? THEY’RE INFIRM you whack job.

        1. It’s quite interesting how quickly individual-rights libertarians have become outright eugenicists.

          What other types of people do you think should die for the sake of the economy?

          1. Tone Loc…

            These are all projections son. Get some better material.

    4. How do you mean? It hasn’t developed as quickly as I had hoped, but it seems to me that herd immunity is exactly why we aren’t seeing now what we saw in March and April.

      1. have you not looked at a single fact? we are getting 5-6 times more daily cases than then…… it isn’t better right now….

        1. ……and we’re seeing those cases in places the virus didn’t hit hard last spring.

          1. i.e. the places where people have not seen it kill anyone they know. how seriously people take it is not an insignificant factor.

            1. People infirm are dying dude…get it in your head. There is simply NO SINGULAR way I can prevent that from my small vantage point called-my life. For heaven’s sake…there’s nowhere to even go! Do you mean work? Grocery store? My walk?

              The LTCF problem is one that can only be handled by each state’s DOH in unison with each Governor’s pandemic response policy. AND THEY’VE all sucked. Including Kristi Noem, who didn’t give guidance to those facilities either and she has a big elderly demographic in her state.

              But to be clear…you really don’t give two shits about an octogenarian dying..it’s all just fodder for the political hound dogs, the virtue-signaling woke morons, and something to stay scared about.

              1. first off, considering that i have parents and other loved ones who are old, you can GFY thinking i don’t give two shits about older people at risk. in fact, just GFY in general……. showing no concern for old people and then trying to claim the people who point that out are “really” the ones who don’t care.

                second, it is not about you single handedly preventing the spread….. this is a community problem that requires community response. that means you avoid large gatherings and interactions that are not necessary. it means you wear a mask and socially distance when you must be around others. your individual contribution might be small, but the more people who do this, the more difference it makes.

                third, i have repeatedly and explicitly denounced government driving any of this….. my post was that the government mandates are the reason people are resisting….. so you can, again, GFY for pretending i am just trying to scare and control people….. i only want people to stop being fucking morons.

    5. Also the populace has succumbed to a mass hysteria far more dangerous and destructive than the virus.

      and the longer this shit goes on, the angrier the sheeple get at those not getting with the program…there will be blood, if this doesn’t get resolved in the next few months…

    6. You were not wrong about herd immunity. Active antibodies are not necessary, in fact they always fade for any virus. What is left is cell memory of how to fight previous infections. That has always been the case.

      Also case rates started dropping in Europe a couple of weeks ago, ahead of the lock downs. Which we know already just add to the death and destruction. They are a net harm. No getting away from that.

  9. I’m not worried. Based on the comments following Washington Post articles about the current vaccine, many Democrats are afraid to use a vaccine approved by Trump’s FDA, so until a Biden-approved vaccine comes out, it’s vaccination for libertarians, conservatives, and independents only.

    1. party of science.

    2. Orange vaccine bad.

    3. You missed Biden going from dark winter and 2p0k more dead 3 weeks ago to basically parroting trump speeches today about winning the war and having hope.

      Fucking pathetic how people here will not even notice and likely give biden credit for everything next spring.

    4. Was that Democrats in general or just Governor Cuomo? Asking seriously, I don’t know any stats about who is willing to get vaccinated and who’s reticent.

      Me, can I get six in each arm and two more on my feet? I’ll take as many vaccines as you got, one of them has got to work.

  10. According To The Science, we will reach herd immunity whether we like it or not.

    1. According to the science. We never should have locked down. But democrats seized on an opportunity to make the next generation dumber and took it.

      1. According to evidence, the only thing that has worked anywhere on the world is strict containment measures. So what science are you referring to?

        1. Which will immediately get cornholed when they open up their borders again.

        2. What do you mean “worked”? What would the criteria for failure be?

          1. Tony just makes broad, sweeping, unverifiable comments and then doubles down with emotional diarrhea.

          2. You can look at places with low death rates and high death rates and figure out what the difference is, and the copy any policies that are discovered to make a positive difference.

            1. You can look at places with low death rates and high death rates and figure out what the difference is…

              did it ever occur to you, genius, that different countries count their ‘covid deaths’ differently…?

            2. Japan has no lockdown (the government claims it has no authority to call for one) and now has a policy of encouraging people to go out to restaurants and travel by paying for half of the bill. Yet, the infection rate there is much lower. All the government does is encourage basic hygiene and mask wearing. Guess what? There is high compliance from the people. It’s amazing what progress you can get when the government respects the governed.

              1. So what would get Trumpers to take personal responsibility? They have their leadership there. So I’m all ears.

                1. You should probably take some personal responsibility for lying about the main source of outbreaks downthread.

        3. that has worked no where but New Zealand only because they stopped all immigration and travel which you can do on an island nation but then they can never reopen because their people will never reach immunity ever even with a vaccine

        4. the only thing that has worked anywhere on the world is strict containment measures.

          hmmm…Spain, anyone…? France, Italy…?

        5. Worked?

          How have they worked when there is no correlation between lock down severity and Covid mortality?

          How have they worked when they have killed about half as many people as Covid (with+by) killed.

          How could they have worked if they are net harm wrt health AND they have decimated economies?

    2. better to get there through a vaccine than for people to die who don’t have to.

  11. Dakotas already declining. WI already declining. IL plateauing.

    This is herd immunity in action. Note that these places didn’t even get to 20% positive testing before seeing the decline. They only got to about 15% because much of their curve is already in the past.

    1. The decline is because people finally started washing their hands. — Fauci

      1. LOL

    2. Exactly. Do these lockdowners (JAMA?) not understand that there are deep levels of immunity? T and B cells hold the memory while antibodies fade …as they are expected to do.

      The seroprevalence clown show is washed up ….why the hell is JAMA still reporting on this?

    3. The progs don’t want to hear this. We are also in high excess death territory as well. Which means that most of the deaths now are within the normal, seasonal excess death rates.

  12. zzzzzz Happy Thanksgiving, Ron.

  13. Waiting anxiously for the Bailey article on MIT retracting their positive mask study.

  14. Herd immunity is generally achieved via mass vaccination.

    Incorrect. And it’s easy to see how stupidly incorrect it is when you realize that humanity has generally achieved herd immunity to several other coronaviruses, without vaccines, just not this particular strain. It’s as stupid as saying ‘starvation is generally avoided via fast food.’

    1. it would be more accurate to remove the word “fast” from fast food…… starvation is generally avoided via food. the alternative is letting people die until your food supply can keep up…….. that would be a better analogy….. because not doing it with a vaccine means letting people die until it isn’t a problem.

      1. 1. Everyone dies. 2. Lose weight (Yes I understand there’s some other factors), if you can’t take care of yourself why am I sacrificing for you. I personally don’t care if you want to eat fast food, smoke, do meth etc. I do care when you try to make your issues my issues. Leave me alone if you can’t take care of yourself.

        1. To be clear, are you asserting a right to ignore hygiene precautions during a pandemic?

          No wonder you people ignore climate change. You simply can’t conceptualize harm that doesn’t come in the form of a thug with a stick, can you?

          1. To be clear, are you asserting that the vast majority of deaths have been people who are healthy and fit rather than elderly fatasses?

            1. elderly fat asses locked up in a nursing home with other sick people un able to go outdoors. I’ve been saying since day one its all about air changes per hour if your indoors get the fresh air moving.

            2. No, I’m asserting that you’re a keyboard psychopath hiding your emotional immaturity behind calls for genocide.

              1. Thankfully, your delusions have no basis in reality.

                1. if you say you want people to die for being fat or old…… what he is saying is not a delusion.

                  1. People who are fat and old tend to die in high numbers no matter what. 655,000 a year, to be exact, and that was before the coof.

                    But you didn’t really give a shit about that, did you?

                    1. It shouldn’t have to be explained to a mute child, let alone a libertarian adult, that you don’t have a right to ask people to die early for your sake.

                    2. Dying of a heart attack or diabetes at 60 isn’t dying early?

                    3. you want more of them to die earlier than they naturally would….. that is not “letting nature take its course,” that is killing people. that is genocide.

                    4. What’s killing people is keeping them cloistered in isolation with no contact with their loved ones. You want me to remind you how many cases have been in nursing homes again? You think it’s fine to leave these people feeling as if their relatives abandoned them? You think THAT shit doesn’t kill people? Fucking asshole control freak.

                    5. you really are a special kind of awful. so, you want to deliberately expose the people you know this thing is highly likely to kill? i understand that it sucks that they can’t see family, but you really can’t wait a couple months until they can be vaccinated? you want to just kill them now so they can have a hug sooner? you literally want grandma to die.

                    6. you really are a special kind of awful. so, you want to deliberately expose the people you know this thing is highly likely to kill?

                      What the fuck do you think has been going on the last eight months, you moron? Why the fuck do you think so many COVID deaths are in nursing homes?

                      ou want to just kill them now so they can have a hug sooner? you literally want grandma to die.

                      You really think grandma doesn’t have any agency here? You really are as dumb as you seem

            3. Metabolic syndrome certainly makes it worse, that’s for sure. Metabolic syndrome is epidemic in this country.

        2. and if i just happen to be 60, and would otherwise have a solid 20+ years ahead….. i can just fuck off because I’m old?

          1. If you’re a lardass at 60, the odds that you’ll have a solid 20+ years ahead are actually quite small. In fact, the chances of you dying exponentially increase for each year past 60 that you manage to make it.

            1. there are people who are not fat at 60, shit face.

              1. And the obesity rate has been climbing for decades, fuckwad.

                1. they sky is blue today, goat fucker….. (i figure if you are going to throw out irrelevant shit, so can i.)

                  1. And you’re still a hysterical pussy, fuckhead.

      2. it would be more accurate to remove the word “fast” from fast food…… starvation is generally avoided via food.

        No shit Sherlock. And herd immunity is generally achieved through exposure and natural immune reaction. It’s how we developed herd immunity to the other handful of coronaviruses (and other viruses) endemic to humans. *If* we achieved herd immunity to this strain via vaccine, it would be the first and only among the coronaviruses and a tiny minority of viral infections generally. Making the statement ‘herd immunity is generally achieved by mass vaccination’ patently false by pretty much any except the most dishonestly narrow (and thus not general) interpretation.

        Your search for a better analogy is just looking for a better way to cover up your lie.

        1. Where do you get this crap? Herd immunity as a concept doesn’t even really relate to any discussion not involving a vaccine. I think you’re confusing herd immunity with Darwinian selection.

          If your big idea for how to handle a pandemic is literally to let it kill the maximum number of people, you can hardly be surprised if people try something else.

          1. Where do you get this crap?

            RTFA dumbfuck:
            Herd immunity is the resistance to the spread of a contagious disease that results if a sufficiently high proportion of a population is immune to the illness.

            Point to the word ‘vaccine’ in that definition. Goddamn you’re stupider than the ‘Russian bot’ tulpas you imagine Trump supporters to be. The only tell that indicates that you are in any way human is that you seem to fantasize about Trump’s genitals significantly more than your hypothetical Russian-bot Trumpistas. I’d say it’s hard to tell if you love Trump’s dick or science more, but every other post of yours expresses your love for one and every fourth post expresses your complete misunderstanding, if not disdain, for the other.

            1. Uh huh, and to reach that level of immunity, you use a vaccine.

              You can in theory achieve it by letting everyone get infected and then clearing away the dead, but that’s traditionally referred to as total failure.

              1. Yeah, good thing we had a vaccine that ended the Spanish flu pandemic.

                1. Nope just 50 million dead people.

                  At the rate the US is going, COVID may surpass the Spanish Flu as the deadliest event in American history.

                  Funny how your standards would still call that a success.

                  1. Nope just 50 million dead people.

                    Yes, the world certainly never recovered from that.

                    At the rate the US is going, COVID may surpass the Spanish Flu as the deadliest event in American history.

                    No it won’t. We’re seeing the same mortality pattern now as then, and the deaths as a percentage of the population is way lower now.

                    Funny how your standards would still call that a success.

                    I’d call a lower rate of death from a novel coronavirus a success, yes. I suppose next fall we can start freaking out about our obesity epidemic and the fact that 655,000 people die from heart disease every year without fail.

                    1. Your entire argument is “Oh well, people die.” And then you demand I pay attention to your whiny-ass petty grievances? Fuck you. People die, pay your taxes.

                    2. Your entire argument is “I’m scared that I’m going to die.” And then you demand that I suffer for your own neuroses. Fuck you. People die, get out of the house and get some fresh air.

              2. First, you’re an exaggerator and all your posts reek of lies and tall tales. And second, you aren’t speaking from a scientific viewpoint for the guy who claims to follow the science.

                Arguing herd immunity is like arguing gravity dude. Get over it.

          2. In literally every response you’ve ever made in these discussions it’s clear that you don’t understand the concept of herd immunity whatsoever.

            Not surprising though, you’re basically a walking Dunning-Kruger effect.

            1. I don’t think you understand the concept, actually. You people seem to think that maximum death is the same thing as maximum success. What am I supposed to do with that? Agree?

        2. the point is that if you are advocating to reach herd immunity through spread instead of vaccine, you are advocating for killing people.

  15. Real lockdowns have never been tried!

  16. don’t care

  17. Scared little manchildren who’d rather see the country fail than fall from the balance beam that is fragile masculinity by doing anything that could be perceived as not originating from the power of your own loins.

    I don’t see anything going on here but poorly socialized choads shivering in their shorts out of fear that caring about people or following rules makes them look like a pussy.

    Everyone is in the same boat. If you’re the whiniest, most entitled, most obnoxious people in the boat, that’s all you are. You’re stupid and annoying. There is no other description. You should let the people better able to handle their emotions lead, and you should follow. You won’t, because of the nature of your emotional problems, but you should.

    1. Everyone is in the same boat.

      Grab a fishing rod or get off of my boat.

      1. It’s not your boat, it’s our boat, and if you want to be part of the command crew, you have to stop being such a whiny little bitch. If there are any rugged individualists onboard who would rather spread disease than take orders, then they shouldn’t be surprised if they’re asked to swim the rest of the way.

        1. You know what will protect you from the coof, 100% guaranteed? A plastic bag around your head.

          Be sure to tie it in the tightest know you can so no viruses sneak through.

        2. and if you want to be part of the command crew, you have to stop being such a whiny little bitch

          Look at you, demanding everyone kneel to your pseudo-authority.

          1. An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure. You brought it on yourselves, same story as always. We could have dealt with climate change with a few regulatory tweaks 50 years ago. Instead you people shrieked and whined about every little thing, and now we’re going to need a vast, expensive globalist effort. You did that, not me. Stop being dumb. Dumb people need to follow, not lead. This is not rocket science.

            If you’re going to be the biggest pussy in the room, then cry into a pillow so you don’t bother the people with the actual testicles and actual responsibilities.

            1. now we’re going to need a vast, expensive globalist effort
              Bullshit.

              If you’re going to be the biggest pussy in the room, then cry into a pillow so you don’t bother the people with the actual testicles and actual responsibilities.
              Says the meathead who wants everyone to hide from the world.

            2. We could have dealt with climate change with a few regulatory tweaks 50 years ago.

              So, would you say that ~170 yrs. ago, we should’ve foregone agricultural mechanization to combat climate change?

              1. All I’m suggesting is that we solve problems that threaten the lives of millions of people. Sometimes we have a choice to fix it early and cheaply or later and expensively.

                I’ve said this a hundred times and you never listened. Every single roadblock you people have put in the way of clean energy ends up being a brick in the wall of global government. Problems don’t go away in the real world because you stick your fingers in your ears and cry.

                1. It wasn’t cheaper 50 years ago. Do you realize the effectiveness of a fifty year old solar panel? It could barely heat water in a desert. They’re much more effective now but still not that reliable.

    2. Just because you and your friends have weak immune systems doesn’t mean everyone else does. Lay off the buttdrugs and stop projecting your urbanite neuroses on to sane, healthy people.

      1. Not everyone can be as sane and healthy as the sea of shrieking lard that shows up at Trump rallies.

        1. Since those aren’t the primary cause of cases, you’re exactly right.

    3. WTF? Tony’s going with the shut up and take your tyranny like a man argument?

  18. Tony come on, you’re scared so don’t try to turn this around. I’m sorry for you, you’re rotten to the core and are bad for humanity. You’re last paragraph describes you. Good luck. But otherwise have a great thanksgiving.

    1. I’m scared for all my relatives who might die from a virus. I’m not scared of wearing a mask. Only the world’s biggest pussy would be scared of something like that.

      1. I’m scared for all my relatives who might die from a virus.

        And because you’re such a principled badass, you’re 100% in favor of any/all laws making it illegal for them to engage in activity that might give them HIV/AIDS.

        1. Enormous effort and expense was put into education and action for safety measures surrounding HIV. Everyone’s life changed because of HIV. Were you around demanding the god-given right to fuck people in the ass without a condom, like you’re doing now?

          Interestingly, right-wing assholes also engaged in denial and suppression around that. Even more interestingly, Donald Trump’s very own mentor, Roy Cohn, got himself infected and then received special treatment. My goodness, some things never change.

          1. Everyone’s life changed because of HIV.

            No, it didn’t. For the 3-5% of the population who were the most at-risk, it did, but for the rest of the country it was little more than a overblown scare, especially after we figured out how to identify the virus and segregate it from the blood supply by throwing out donations from infected people.

            1. Even then, I’ve had precisely zero transfusions in my lifetime. Expanding the social circle, it’s well south of 10% of the people I know who’ve had them. Considering that HIV is much more fragile than most other STDs and blood-borne pathogens, pretty much nothing changed for the vast majority of people.

            2. It changed free love into safe sex. I realize that mass death in groups of people you have dehumanized doesn’t bother you, but unfortunately covid doesn’t stay contained in that way, except to the extent that it finds people who have to work in public for a living.

              Your so-called right to a normal life doesn’t just affect you. We learn these things in kindergarten. You don’t want people to make the virus your problem, but you insist on making your developmental disabilities everyone else’s problem.

              1. It changed free love into safe sex.

                One media-driven fashion trend to another does not a population-wide life-changing event make.

                I realize that mass death in groups of people you have dehumanized doesn’t bother you, but unfortunately covid doesn’t stay contained in that way, except to the extent that it finds people who have to work in public for a living.

                Except the majority of cases are coming from prisons, college dorms, and nursing homes, not anywhere else. That’s why it’s okay to go see Grandma for turkey tomorrow.

                Your so-called right to a normal life doesn’t just affect you.

                Said the guy demanding that everyone lock themselves inside rather than get fresh air and exercise.

                We learn these things in kindergarten.

                And the fact that you’re emotionally stuck at that age doesn’t surprise me in the least.

                You don’t want people to make the virus your problem, but you insist on making your developmental disabilities everyone else’s problem.

                Said the guy whose neurotic projections are all over this board.

                1. So it’s safe to mingle with grandparents because you’ll be in a house and not a prison or nursing home. Do you think the virus knows what kind of building it’s in?

                  You know what’s interesting, the fact that countries run by women are the success story, while countries run by macho douchebags are failing.

                  We should consider taking the right to vote away from males.

                  1. So it’s safe to mingle with grandparents because you’ll be in a house and not a prison or nursing home. Do you think the virus knows what kind of building it’s in?

                    Resorting to these emotionally manipulative arguments shows you have no case. Social gatherings are not a main source of COVID cases and, in fact, are towards the bottom of the list. That you can’t handle these facts is your own failing, not mine.

                    You know what’s interesting, the fact that countries run by women are the success story, while countries run by macho douchebags are failing.

                    And states run by women are seeing massive spikes, so there goes that theory of gender superiority.

                    We should consider taking the right to vote away from males.

                    We should also consider lighting fags on fire like the good old days.

                    1. No I really think there’s something to this. Maybe men are useful in some contexts like making war, but then again, they tend to cause them in the first place, usually for no good reason. I think emotionally immature men have controlled things for too long. Their priorities are hitting stuff and prancing around trying to be alpha cock. Look at Putin and Trump. Failed countries, intellectually and emotionally stunted men in charge.

                      Contrast to Germany and New Zealand, and Scandinavia where women run practically everything. Do the people who live there feel oppression, do you think, or perhaps do you think they feel perfectly grateful not to be run by the amygdalae of male primates?

                      Men are too emotional to properly lead.

                    2. If you think men are too emotional to lead, you’ve never worked in an office full of women.

                    3. I’ve absolutely preferred female bosses to male bosses. Female bosses have to work on succeeding. Male bosses spend all their time trying to impose their stupid personality quirks and irrelevant fixations on everyone.

                      I suspect that when the day comes when female bosses, presidents, and queens are subject to the same loose selection pressures that males are, they’ll become just as incompetent on average.

                    4. Female bosses have to work on succeeding. Male bosses spend all their time trying to impose their stupid personality quirks and irrelevant fixations on everyone.

                      No, women do that, too.

          2. Everyone’s life changed because of HIV.

            Yeah, I had to check the box that said I wasn’t into gay sex when I donated blood. It was a real burden for me. I honestly don’t know how I made it.

            1. Not that big a deal, right?

              Now we have to do some things that aren’t that big of a deal to handle a virus that’s not spread by sex, but by breathing. It’s just one of those things.

              You can cry about those of us with the maturity to handle it because we make you look like sad little vaginas if you like, just do it with a mask on. You don’t have a right to infect other people. Not even in libertarianism.

              1. False equivalency.

                1. Yes, I explained why they aren’t equivalent. One is much more contagious, and the other one has killed 40 million people.

                  1. Implying that an extra box on a blood donation form is the same as life-disrupting government edicts is the false equivalency.

                    But you knew that.

                    1. Well I was referring to a complete global reassessment of how we treated sex, but if you think it’s no big deal, then you can probably handle wearing a mask when you’re in public.

                    2. a complete global reassessment of how we treated sex

                      It didn’t.

                    3. It didn’t.

                      Tony seems to think that condoms didn’t exist before 1983.

                    4. Perhaps you’re referring to the fact that AIDS mitigation has failed in many ways, especially with respect to Africa where child-fucking geezers with jewel-encrusted shoes have declared that every sperm being sacred is more important than containing a pandemic that’s killed 40 million people.

                      What I don’t understand is why you keep defining failure to prevent mass death as a success because it means you don’t have to think about or do anything.

                    5. Perhaps you’re referring to the fact that AIDS mitigation has failed in many ways, especially with respect to Africa

                      Despite 40 YEARS of spending and education. How do you define failure?

          3. Were you around demanding the god-given right to fuck people in the ass without a condom, like you’re doing now?

            I didn’t ask a question. And your personal contradiction on people’s right to infect/get infected is not my job to sort out.

            Holy shit, what is it with you and all the intimate details of anyone who’s ever met Trump? If you’ve got a problem with Roy Cohn, take it up with him.

            1. Anyone who knows someone who died from AIDS has a problem with Roy Cohn.

              Now Trump is following in his legacy.

              Whiny cunty psychopaths with masculinity issues getting other people killed. The Republican party, in a nutsack.

              1. The Republican party, Tony included, in a nutsack.

                FIFY

      2. That’s funny I’m worries that you and people that think like you may survive

      3. The people putting out these rules and recommendations aren’t following them, so there’s no reason anyone else should, either.

        1. Spoken like an emotionally mature adult.

          1. Yes, emotionally mature adults expect their leaders to follow the rules they put in place.

            1. Perhaps, but they don’t go on to take their leaders’ hypocrisy as an excuse to behave badly themselves.

              1. No, they take that hypocrisy as an indication that those rules aren’t necessary.

                1. Bzzz. No. Not correct. For one thing, you people are on the prowl for every infraction you can label hypocrisy because you want an excuse to go back to normal, because, as I’ve said, you are emotionally stunted man-children who can’t handle the slightest amount of adversity.

                  But that’s just asserting the validity of a conspiracy theory. Maybe a leader is a hypocrite. That doesn’t change any facts on the ground.

                  1. you are emotionally stunted man-children who can’t handle the slightest amount of adversity.

                    Mainly people are looking for the opportunity to handle said adversity on their own terms. Like mature adults. And they’re looking to government to provide them the tools they need to properly gauge risk to their neighbors and themselves.

                    Unfortunately, said governments have pissed away whatever goodwill they came into this with by engaging in obfuscation, hypocrisy and other forms of rank disrespect for the people on whose backs they’ve built their cushy lifestyles.

                    https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/11/20/this-is-an-abusive-government/

                    When people don’t have autonomy, it causes resentment and fear. Even though total security is a myth, we do tend to feel we have a level of control over our environment. When we don’t feel we have that control, we lose our foundations.

                    (It’s about the UK, but the same applies here)

                    1. Few places have allowed for more autonomy than the US. Look at where it got us.

                      I’m sure you’re beside yourself with disappointment that along with our lax regulations our national leadership has deliberately fostered an environment of science denial and hysteria over hygiene measures. It kind of makes the old rugged individualist method into a joke.

                      You want responsibility, take some responsibility.

                    2. See my comment above about Japan. You are wrong.

                  2. Ding ding ding. Yes. Correct.

                    For one thing, you people are on the prowl for every infraction you can label hypocrisy because you want an excuse to go back to normal, because, as I’ve said, you are emotionally stunted man-children who can’t handle the slightest amount of adversity.

                    Says the guy posting in terror that a cough will kill him.

                    But that’s just asserting the validity of a conspiracy theory. Maybe a leader is a hypocrite. That doesn’t change any facts on the ground.

                    The facts are that social gatherings are at the bottom of the list for spreading COVID.

                    1. Based on what? Your cherry picking of data you like while ignoring data you don’t like? I don’t know if you’re trying to prove me wrong about you being an intellectually and emotionally stunted manchild, but that behavior isn’t doing the trick. Especially since you’re lying:

                      https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/11/12/covid-social-gatherings/

                      “A record-breaking surge in U.S. coronavirus cases is being driven to a significant degree by casual occasions that may feel deceptively safe, officials and scientists warn — dinner parties, game nights, sleepovers and carpools.

                      Many earlier coronavirus clusters were linked to nursing homes and crowded nightclubs. But public health officials nationwide say case investigations are increasingly leading them to small, private social gatherings. This behind-doors transmission trend reflects pandemic fatigue and widening social bubbles, experts say — and is particularly insidious because it is so difficult to police and likely to increase as temperatures drop and holidays approach.”

                    2. Huh, look at that–a base claim without any corresponding statistics. That shows you’re a Lying Ass Dog.

                      Meanwhile, the New York Times had this to say yesterday:

                      In dozens of statements over the past weeks, political leaders and public health officials have said that while previous waves of infection could be linked to nursing homes, meatpacking plants or restaurants, the problem now is that unmasked people are sitting too closely in kitchens and living rooms, lighting thousands of small Covid fires that burn through their communities….

                      But many epidemiologists are far less certain, saying there is little evidence to suggest that household gatherings were the source of the majority of infections since the summer. Indeed, it has become much harder to pinpoint any source of any outbreak, now that the virus is so widespread and Americans may be exposed in so many ways…

                      Most states don’t collect or report detailed information about the exposure that led to a new infection. But in states where a breakdown is available, long-term care facilities, food processing plants, prisons, health care settings, and restaurants and bars are still the leading sources of spread, the data suggest.

                      An analysis of nearly 800 nursing homes in six states experiencing the biggest surges, including North Dakota, South Dakota and Wisconsin, found that these homes are still hot spots of viral transmission and that little has been done since the spring to reduce that risk….

                      In Colorado, only 81 active cases are attributed to social gatherings, compared with more than 4,000 from correctional centers and jails, 3,300 from colleges and universities, nearly 2,400 from assisted living facilities, and 450 from restaurants, bars, casinos and bowling alleys.

                      In Louisiana, social events account for just 1.7 percent of the 3,300 cases for which the state has clear exposure information.

                      Checkmate, fuckhead. You want me to cite the stats just from Colorado alone, a state of nearly 6 million? Is that enough of a statistical sample for your dumb, gullible ass?

                    3. Feel free to cite your numbers any time, fuckhead.

                    4. Where you at, Tony? You were pretty confident on this earlier, did those figures not come up in your favor?

  19. On a related note: I have a relative who’s 70+ yr.-old and a cancer survivor. Because they had their colon removed (and they’re in their 70s), their kidneys don’t operate as well as they should. They have regularly scheduled dialysis appointments. They had planned on being at Thanksgiving. However, on the 15th they developed a 101 fever with a cough. On Monday, they tested positive for COVID…

    By Monday afternoon, the fever was completely gone. As of the 23rd, the cough was gone. They’re bringing pie to Thanksgiving. Biggest complaint about COVID? The lockdowns make it harder to schedule a dialysis appointment.

    Kinda puts things in perspective when the primary reason you wouldn’t go to Thanksgiving would be to avoid giving it to the one person who was most susceptible and, turns out, can take this ‘unprecedented virus’ in stride.

    Happy Thanksgiving.

  20. The US Department of Health and Human Services issued a study in 2005 laying out a reasonable plan for responding to a pandemic. It called for basic public health measures and quarantining the sick, while essentially dismissing population-wide lockdowns as unworkable for several reasons, most notably that they can’t be sustained for the duration of a pandemic and because too much of commerce is essential and can’t simply be shut down – especially not for months.

    We went down the wrong road at the beginning with the idea that we’d control this with lockdowns for a few weeks then all’s good. No, if you lockdown a few weeks, when it’s over the virus picks up where it left off, which we’ve seen especially in Europe, where tight lockdowns didn’t save them from massive surges later. Instead, the emphasis always should have been that we’re going to institute certain public health restrictions that are sustainable, such as canceling large gatherings, reducing capacity in restaurants, etc., and provided targeted financial support to those harmed by those restrictions. Instead, we mailed out stimulus checks mostly to people who were still working and getting paid.

  21. “Most researchers now believe that achieving the herd immunity threshold for COVID-19 would require that close to 60 to 70 percent of the population will have to have been infected or vaccinated. ”

    Wrong.

    Plenty of settings — ships, prisons, meat packing plants and the like — have shown that 40-60% of the population isn’t susceptible to C-19.

    Which means heard immunity will start being apparent when 70% of the remainder are infected.

    So not 70%, but rather roughly 30-40%.

    1. From what I’ve gathered the % of people with strong immunity to the virus is closer to 80% due to exposure to similar coronaviruses in the past. The Diamond Princess, for example, had less than 20% test positive. I believe the USS Roosevelt had a similar number.

      I think we’re a lot closer to herd immunity than advertised.

      And then there’s the issue of false positive rate in the tests themselves – counting people with insanely high Ct numbers as positive (and infectious) when they were really measuring dead virus. This goes a long way explain the skyrocketing “new” infection numbers with relatively low deaths. I’m sure better therapies plays a role too.

      1. Please see my comment below. Also, in a communicable disease situation, can we assume that because only 20 percent acquired it, the rest are immune? Some probably practice better hygiene than others, some were closer to the infected people for longer times, etc. That could also account for why not everyone got infected.

        1. The difference is we have multiple scenarios that have served as excellent labs for this hypothesis. The fact that they all (that I know of anyway) have had remarkably similar infection rates indicates to me there’s more to it than hygiene or social distancing at play.

          It’s not proof of course, but you also have to consider that this virus, despite the “novel” tag thrown on it, isn’t really novel. It’s a coronavirus and they’ve been around a long, long time. A significant portion of the colds you’ve had in your lifetime were likely a coronavirus. If one of those viruses was similar enough to this “novel” one, you’ll have a certain level of immunity. That doesn’t mean you can’t infect others, but it reduces the likelihood considerably – asymptomatic people don’t shed at nearly the same rate as those with moderate to severe symptoms.

          “Herd immunity”, by it’s very nature, is not a binary thing – a forest with very few trees can still become a forest fire if conditions are just right.

          Anyway, if I trusted the tests I’d say we’re within 10% of effective herd immunity today – but 10% is 36m people so…

    2. I hope you’re right. I found this article that parallels your statement that 40-60 percent of the population has some degree of immunity to Covid-19, which is encouraging:

      https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200716-the-people-with-hidden-protection-from-covid-19

      But a problem is “some degree of immunity” doesn’t mean you won’t get it, but just that if you do, it probably won’t be too bad. Or maybe you won’t even know you’re infected. So I wonder, are these people with existing levels of immunity already accounted for in the asymptomatic and mild cases we see? We already know that most cases aren’t horrible in younger people without comorbidities. You’re suggesting that the people with certain levels of immunity are “off the table” when it comes to getting and spreading the virus, which you indicate by subtracting them from the percentage needed for herd immunity, but for the above reason I’m wondering if you can do that.

      1. From what I understand, that 40-60% won’t contract C-19 after exposure, likely due to having been previously exposed to a sufficiently similar corona virus.

        If so, the reason they get subtracted is that they can’t pass the virus on, just as someone who has gained immunity from having had C-19, or through immunization.

  22. I think one needs to realize that 2 month old data in a fast moving infection like this is pretty worthless from the standpoint of drawing conclusions. What was true two months ago is almost certainly not true now.
    The current surge of cases is past or nearly past the peak in some 20 states. These states have about 5% of their populations with confirmed cases as per JHSU numbers as of today. The active cases using real numbers, not JHSU, is beginning to decline in these states.
    As more states reach about 5% or more of their populations with confirmed infections, their active cases will likely begin to decline as well. Based upon the JHSU numbers this will likely occur in all but about a dozen states before the end of the year.

  23. This means nothing. In the US, 4-6 months ago, the rates of death per number of people infected were in the 4-5% ranges. This isn’t even close to the accepted pandemic rate of nearly 9%. Over the last few months, the death rate has been close to 2%. You don’t necessarily need antibodies if your immune system is functioning well. It’s a fact that just about everyone comes into contact with all kinds of germs and bacteria on a daily basis. We build up automatic immunity constantly…sort of like herd immunity, but through a natural process.

    At age 70 and not having any vaccines for at least 40 years, I have not had any flu in 25-30 years and this after traveling all over the country for work purposes for many years. What is the explanation for this? A strong immune system, devoid of the things that might otherwise weaken it. It is another totally false narrative created by pharma that vaccines are the only thing that achieve herd immunity or any immunity. It is pure hogwash.

    I would bet the farm that if instead of silly lockdowns, masking and isolation, everyone (adults) were to take 5k-10k IUs of vitamin D daily especially during the fall and winter months) , and get some sun in the warmer months, much of the fake pandemic would not be a problem for most people.

    And no way do I trust the JAMA which is another agency highly influenced by pharma, like the FDA, CDC, WHO, AMA and a dozen others. I’ll stick to vitamin D in higher doses with few other supplements and not worry about the fake pandemic.

    1. I completely agree. I suspect, in fact, that because you have traveled around the country for work and had small but regular exposure to pathogens that you have maintained a good immune system.

      What is going to happen when people who have been “sheltering in place” start to re-expose themselves to the world again?

  24. “by the end of September fewer than 10 percent of people in the U.S. had evidence of previous COVID-19 infection”

    On September 30, the US cumulative covid case rate was 21,725 per million. But its nearly doubled since, and is now 38,039 per million. If the study was accurate, about 18% of Americans (not 10%) would have been infected by now.

    “Seroprevalence varied across regions and between metropolitan/nonmetropolitan areas, with estimates as high as 23% in the Northeast and 13% in the South, while estimates in the Midwest and West were less than 10%.”

    Except that 13 states in the Midwest, West and South now have higher cumulative covid case rates than the highest state in the Northeast (Rhode Island at 4.854%).

    States with the highest cumulative covid case rates are North Dakota (9.7%), South Dakota (8.4%), Iowa (6.9%), WI (6.6%), Nebraska (6.0%) and Utah (5.6%), and 25 states have a rate above 4%.

    Previous studies (including one by CDC) found that 10 times more people were infected (than had tested positive), and a recently published Texas study found that 4 times more Texans were infected by covid than had tested positive.

    So the headline of this article is false, as we’re far closer to herd immunity than Bailey (like Big Pharma, CDC, Fauci, Democrats and the left wing media outlets) have been claiming.

    1. The Covid-19 Projections site referenced in the article we’re commenting on projects an even higher number of actual infections than your source (50 million). That would put the percentage of already-infected Americans at 15 percent.

      But to accept that this data means we’re closer to herd immunity than the article says requires refuting the article’s assertion that herd immunity requires 60 to 70 percent of the population to have already had the virus, because 15 percent isn’t close to 60-70 percent.

      But maybe this virus has been here longer than we think, and I’m not sure the antibody tests used to detect seroprevalence are good enough to tell us. (I was sick in February with Covid-like symptoms. I realize this easily could have been something else, so I was curious to find out. When I checked with a doctor this past summer about getting an antibody test, he said it would have been too long and I’d test negative regardless of whether I’d had Covid or not.) So, if those tests are how we’re assessing seroprevalence, are we catching everyone who’s had this disease?

      The first known case came to my state in early March. Within a couple weeks every county in the state had cases. Those cases didn’t all come from one man. They were detected when we started testing. So, to my way of thinking, this is where you open up a window to the possibility that there may be a lot more people than we think that have already had Covid.

      1. Seroprevalence was determined based on a sampling of leftover blood from routine blood tests for crap like cholesterol and blood cells and blood sugar levels.

        It’s not specifically from the blood of people who specifically had antibody testing.

        Because it’s based on a sample of all bloodwork at commercial labs, it’s biased towards the chronically ill and elderly, who tend to get more tests than young healthy people.

        So the seroprevalence study will be missing samples from the 90% of people who are young and healthy, just focusing on the old and sick.

        It’s not representative of the entire population, so it’s not possible to draw meaningful conclusions.

  25. This article (and the study it references) appears to completely ignore the documented effects of T-cell immunity on this virus. Many people without the antibodies nevertheless demonstrate pre-existing immunity to the disease, suggesting that the herd immunity threshold is actually nowhere near the 70-80% estimate, which is an assumption based on the false premise that everyone within a given population has an equal baseline susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 infection. The effect that pre-existing immunity plays is particularly obvious in places like Japan.

    1. Thailand is also an incredible outlier. First known case outside China, yet their case total stands at under 4,000. Sixty deaths. And they do have a handful of cases still popping up (four yesterday) so there would be the potential for it to take off there at any time, but it doesn’t.

      However this does then have to make you question the level of herd immunity in countries with severe outbreaks, such as the US. However much there is, it’s clearly not yet enough.

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  27. The researchers note, “Seroprevalence varied across regions and between metropolitan/nonmetropolitan areas, with estimates as high as 23% in the Northeast and 13% in the South, while estimates in the Midwest and West were less than 10%.”

    Since September 30, the cumulative number/rate of covid cases (i.e. those who tested positive) has more than quadrupled in Wyoming and Montana, has more than tripled in North Dakota, South Dakota and Wyoming, and has more than doubled in many other states.

    Meanwhile, the overall number/rate of covid cases in Northeast states have increased less than 50% since September 30 (largely due to the huge number of cases in the spring and summer.

    But in sum, the skyrocketing increase in new covid cases since September 30 (nearly doubling nationwide) indicates that we’re about halfway to achieving herd immunity nationwide (and closer in many counties, cities and states).

    By the time vaccines are readily available in the US (in two months), we’ll likely be much closer to achieving herd immunity than we are today.

    That doesn’t make Big Pharma happy because they want to achieve herd immunity by selling (and lobbying governments to mandate) to everybody (including to people who have already been infected).

  28. Correction to my previous post.
    Since Sept 30, the cumulative number/rate of covid cases has DOUBLED in Rhode Island, Vermont, New Hampshire, Connecticut and Pennsylvania.

    So if 23% of people in Northeastern states were infected by Sept 30 (which this newly published study found), it is much higher than that today (perhaps double).

    Once again, we’re far closer to herd immunity than Ron Bailey (or CDC, Democrats and left wing media outlets) have been claiming.

    1. The hospitals are full in many places, deaths are past 2,000 a day, and lots of people just took off for Thanksgiving. Either herd immunity kicks in soon or we’re going to go right off a cliff with hospitalizations and deaths. I’m praying you’re right.

      1. The case fatality and daily fatality rates have sharply declined since April, and there are plenty of hospital beds, ICU beds, ventilators and other equipment available.

  29. Apparently these mRNA vaccines achieve their immune response by inserting the spike protein into patients. Since all corona viruses have spikes, does this mean that vaccination will induce immunity to all corona viruses?

    That would be a very good thing. I don’t like getting the common cold. Is this new technology a step in the direction to getting universal immunity to the flu virus (i.e an immune response to a universal attribute of every flu virus)? That would be a very good thing.

    1. No, different strains have different spike proteins. There is still a concern that if the virus continues to mutate, there is a (thankfully low) risk that vaccines wouldn’t protect against alternate variants.

      1. That’s disappointing. I was hoping the spike protein was a conserved trait. Back to the drawing board.

  30. Only a few million more deaths and we can achieve heard immunity. So everyone, go out and have fun. Enjoy the company of others, go to church, go to work in the office, make sure this Thanksgiving and Christmas are the biggest friend and family get together’s are the biggest ever. If you are cooking less than 5 turkeys, you are not having a big enough gathering. So get out there and invite more to your home. Covid only takes the weak anyway. Right?

    So let’s do it. The faster we infect each other, the faster we will have here herd immunity. Granted some of our loved ones will be gone by the end of January, but we can just call it “God’s will”. And besides, less people mean less traffic on the road as you commute to work, so it’s a win win for everyone. Yay!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! MAGA!!!!!!

    1. You sound unhappy. I will send you a virtual hug to help you deal with the Wuhanic plague.

      1. Careful! Virtual hugs can spread virtual COVID.

    2. The bitterness and envy just reeks through you.

  31. Haven’t recent studies shown that antibodies for the virus tend to drop to undetectable levels after about three months, but people who were exposed still have healthy immune responses, which include manufacturing the needed antibodies if re-exposed? Wouldn’t that mean that a lot of people who now have protective immunity can’t be identified by antibody tests?

    1. You are correct, but ignoring T-cell immunity is the only way the author could stick with his scare tactic theme.

      In addition, T-cell immunity also is a big argument for why schools should be open (because kids would have more recently been exposed to a other coronaviruses that gave them a cold and partial T-cell immunity to COVID-19) so it has to be ignored completely.

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