Coronavirus

Why Use Two Doses of COVID-19 Vaccines When One Works Almost as Well?

We could double the number of Americans vaccinated against COVID-19.

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With the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine already cleared and the Moderna vaccine soon to be approved by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), COVID-19 relief finally seems to be on the way. There remains the issue of distribution, and as it stands, rollout will not be completed until summer. But Duke data scientist Zeynep Tufekci and Harvard epidemiologist Michael Mina point out in a recent New York Times op-ed that changing the vaccines from a two-dose to a one-shot regimen would double the number of Americans who could be vaccinated soon, all without losing a significant amount of protection against COVID-19 infection.

Tufekci and Mina note that infections dropped off steeply after two weeks among the participants in clinical trials who were inoculated with the first dose of the vaccines. Preliminary data from the Pfizer/BioNTech trial suggested that the vaccine efficacy for the prevention of COVID-19 was 82 percent after the first dose. Efficacy against severe COVID-19 occurring after the first dose was 88.9 percent. In comparison, the two-dose regimen is 95 percent effective against infection.

The Moderna vaccine, according to preliminary clinical trial data, provides substantial protection after the first dose as well. Tufekci and Mina note, "Moderna reported the initial dose to be 92.1 percent efficacious in preventing Covid-19 starting two weeks after the initial shot, when the immune system effects from the vaccine kick in, before the second injection on the 28th day." The Moderna vaccine is 94.5 percent effective after the second dose.

Back in June, the FDA issued guidance outlining the agency's expectation that a COVID-19 vaccine would prevent disease or decrease its severity in at least 50 percent of people who are vaccinated. According to preliminary data, one dose of either the Pfizer/BioNTech or Moderna vaccines clears this low hurdle.

Tufekci and Mina note that important questions remain, namely how long immune protection may last. But even if immunity were to wane over, say, a year, that would still provide enough time for people to get a booster shot later this year while the initial one-dose inoculation protects people immediately. Tufekci and Mina suggest that clinical trials evaluating one-dose efficacy could be rolled out quickly among low-risk healthy younger health care and essential workers.

I appreciate their caution, but given the much lower 50 percent vaccine efficacy threshold set by the FDA in June, the benefits of adopting a one-dose strategy using these vaccines outweigh the current real risks of the rising pandemic.

In any case, they are not wrong when they assert, "The possibility of adding hundreds of millions to those who can be vaccinated immediately in the coming year is not something to be dismissed."

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  1. We need multiple doses to extend the crisis for the benefit of the State.

    1. Yup. SCOTUS denied challenge to not counting illegals, so Census 2020 is gonna strip away Democrat House seats and give them to Red states. NEW CRISIS!

      1. Well, don’t count on it yet.

        “The court said the challengers, a coalition of states led by New York and immigrant rights groups, did not have the legal injury necessary to bring the case because the government has not yet announced which individuals it seeks to exclude from the count.”

        https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/18/politics/supreme-court-census-undocumented-immigrants/index.html

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    2. I just visited some “libertarian” sites I haven’t visited in a long time and holy shit, they’ve all turned into anti-vaxxers. I don’t think I want to be associated with the “libertarian” label anymore. Too many crazies. Toss it in the bin along with “liberal.” I suppose I don’t need a label at all, but “voluntaryist” and “individualist” still seem relatively safe.

      1. I get that. I joined the Libertarian Party forty years ago. I went to one meeting. A few (really, like five), were “classical liberals.” The rest were pretty much a bunch of nuts. Interesting nuts, though.

        1. I suppose anyone that is into politics enough to actually go to a meeting is either a power-hungry sociopath or a nutty idealist. It’s best to avoid both types of people, really.

          1. And this is why non of the LP presidential candidates are actually libertarians.

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          2. “I suppose anyone that is into politics enough to actually go to a meeting is either a power-hungry sociopath or a nutty idealist. It’s best to avoid both types of people, really.”

            Actually, it seemed more like a social gathering. One speaker, who spoke for maybe ten minutes, and then the refreshments, which seemed to be what most folks were most looking forward to. “Organizing” libertarians seems rather like herding cats. Mostly a useless endeavor,

        2. I feel like that describes the establishment parties as well though. (Replace ‘classic liberal’ with appropriate representations for their respective groups).

          Most people who actively take part in political parties are nuts of one flavor or another.

        3. Vermin Supreme! Everyone gets a pony, at least.

        4. You make a good point, although none of them them as bad as the cult of Trump dick suckers who get their nourishment from him.

          1. Forgotten already about the “Mmm, mmm Obama” people, huh?

          2. Fuck off ass eater.

      2. “voluntaryist”

        Apart from vaccines obviously.

        1. Fuck off, Tulpa. Also, not once have I supported mandatory vaccinations and have in fact heavily criticized Bailey in the past for supporting the same.

          1. holy shit, they’ve all turned into anti-vaxxers. I don’t think I want to be associated with the “libertarian” label anymore.

            Keep lying.

          2. Fuck off, Tulpa

            The exact moment of Chipper realizing his own world view makes him a monster.

            1. I’ll give eunuch credit here, I’ve seen him come out against mandatory vaccination before.
              I remember this, because it’s the only decent or half-intelligent thing he’s ever posted.

              1. I too have seen him lie to fit in!

          3. Youre a fucking globalist cheering all this removal of liberties over a cold that effectively is no risk if under 70. Fuck off WK.

      3. I think of myself as an I-don’t-give-a-shit-itarian.

        1. I think of myself as an I-don’t-give-a-shit-itarian.

          http://alcoholicsanonymous.com/

      4. ” I don’t think I want to be associated with the “libertarian” label anymore.”

        The FDA finally succeeds with “Truth in Labeling”

        1. “And nothing of value was lost”

      5. We get that you side with the forced vaccination crew and anything short of complete faith in a novel vaccine with limited testing is unthinkable and should be tossed as anti-vax. Liberty is servitude in your bizzaro world.

      6. You were never a libertarian, with your libertarian “litmus tests”. You don’t even understand the libertarian concept.

      7. Ying globalist says what?

      8. Voluntaryist? So you think vaccinations should be voluntary?

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    5. “…these vaccines outweigh the current real risks of the rising pandemic.”

      What pandemic? Deaths have been going down for months.

  2. How about nobody get the vaccine because it has a death rate <1% overall.

    There are 4 more vaccine doses available because my wife and I are not getting such a ridiculous medicine.

    Give it to the health care workers, military, and old people that want it.

    Mask pussies like Bailey will have to cower in his urban abodes until the magic serum becomes available.

    I wonder what mask pussies will do next year when a new strain of Kungflu or some other Chinese biological weapon hits the 6 Continents.

    1. Might be because if you are over 65, or have co-morbidities, your chances of dying are much greater than the average. 80% of deaths are among those 65 or older.

      Compared to the 18 to 29 year old group, my chances of dying, at 71, are 90 times higher.

      I’ll vaccinate ASAP.

      https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-age.html

      1. You did read the part where he included old people in the list of those getting vaccinated if they want right?

        1. loveconstitution1789: Do you also think people should not have taken the polio vaccine because the risk of death from polio was low?

          1. Did we lock down for polio and force people to live in fear without the vaccine?

          2. Good thing WWII never happened because polio was so scary that we had to cower on our farms and urban dwellings.

            Mask pussies are so harmful to American independence.

    2. “I wonder what mask pussies will do next year when a new strain of Kungflu or some other Chinese biological weapon hits the 6 Continents.”

      They will say, “Thank god we have a plan that works. Lock us all in our houses for 8 months, sending us paychecks, while the government hyperdrives us a vaccine!”

      1. (And in case it isn’t apparent, I do not endorse such a view. I just know that they will claim “Hey, it isn’t indefinite lockdown. It is just 8 months”)

      2. thinking people SHOULD wear a mask is in no way an endorsement for any of the horseshit the government has done this year.

        1. It is 100% an endorsement

          1. i wear a seat belt, would never get on a motorcycle without a helmet, and never plan to shoot up heroine…… but i oppose all laws about all of those things….. fuck off.

            1. Mask pussy at unreason AND endorses such government restrictions.

              You can always tell the tyrants and their apologists.

            2. Die of a mild virus, fatass leftist

          2. Not really, it’s a harmless piece of clothing that doesn’t hurt you or impair you in any way other maybe having to talk a little louder . The nonmaskers are a bunch of pussies still hanging off their Momma’s tit whining that they’re coming for their freedom. I don’t agree with the shut downs but wearing masks is a no-brainer as is well supported as a theory because of the flat-line Trump supporters who only take their mouths off his wiener long enough to say stupid shit.

            1. My mask makes my glasses fog up so much I can hardly see. I’m glad you don’t have my health problems, but please have a little compassion.

              1. There’s no room left in “Wise” Old Fool for compassion; it’s virtue signaling all the way down.

            2. “doesn’t hurt you or impair you in any way”

              Try telling that to a deaf person, asshole. Reading lips helps deaf people communicate somewhat without sign language. Now you authoritarian thugs have even taken that away from them. It’s also common sense that masks cause people to become lightheaded and increases risk of fainting. But again, you fucking ass eaters just say SCREW EVERYBODY WITH HEALTH OR RESPIRATORY ISSUES.

              “wearing masks is a no-brainer”
              Even Dr. Fauci said in the spring, “don’t wear masks, they don’t do shit.”

        2. Thinking people should do something that offers closer to zero value than some value as a virtue signal makes you a statist.

          1. thinking something has zero value just because someone in the government said you should do it makes you a moron.

            1. Poor mask pussy.

    3. Given what I do and where I work, I have direct interaction with COVID+ patients on a daily basis. Thus far my NIOSH N-95 has kept me from contracting the virus; just had the vaccine today.

      More than any concern for myself [I am no longer “young” but in pretty good health] I just really want to see the bitch, and all of the stupid fucking things various governments have done in response to it, gone. Or at least it will be one less excuse for them to do stupid fucking things.

      1. Leftist totalitarians don’t need excuses.
        Welcome to the New Normal

        1. And the Georgia Senate race will greatly influence my legal status for the immediate future.

        2. then why are all the nonmasker pussies whining so much. If the government wants your freedom like you claim, then as totalitarians they would just take your freedom.

          1. “they would just take your freedom.”

            That’s the point, dipshit. They ARE taking our freedom, as we speak.

    4. people who want to risk a small chance of death for an equally small chance of a minor side effect…….. dumbest motherfuckers around…… not just dumb, but they believe they have thought it through. you don’t want to get it, fine. but don’t delude yourself into thinking that decision is actually “smart.”

      1. Mask pussy at unreason. Commies and pussies to boot.

        Just sad America has allowed you cucks to not be laughed out of every room.

        1. Cucks? Lol definitely a Trumper forever hanging off his wiener for their nourishment and his pleasure.

      2. I’m young and take care of myself. I have statistically zero risk.

    5. Your body, your choice.

  3. Or, one could advise two doses for “at-risk” groups while recommending single doses for lower-risk groups.

    1. I like this idea.

      1. This does seem like the best way. You’d get strong protection for the most exposed or vulnerable, and quite good protection for a larger fraction of the public.

  4. I’m planning on getting 12 vaccines by registering under different names and in different states and by using the mail-in option of applying for the vaccine.

    1. Smart… the radio frequencies of the chips will interfere with each other, rendering the tracking and biometric signals useless.

      1. Nope. These are “super-chips,” and communicate with each other in order and decide which frequency and encoding to utilize. That information is then relayed directly to a super computer in Bill Gate’s basement.

        1. Lifehack: sprinkle iron filings on your cereal every morning. An internal tin-foil hat, if you will.

          1. Now THERE is an idea.

          2. And, if there is no conspiracy and you’re just a nutcase, you still get your recommended daily dose of iron. There’s no way to lose!

            1. Yes, exactly. And for even better results, utilize the radiation shielding properties of lead in the filings.

    2. 12 vaccines to 20M Americans. Herd immunity achieved!

  5. because this has never and will never be about science or logic. it’s magic and religion.

    1. Commies are looking to this “vanguard” to start the revolution but unreason cant even get their narrative to convince the antivaxers.

  6. I thought testing was going to solve all this?

  7. Sure get one hell get none if you want.

    Of course the oligarchs running this joint may force you if you wanted to leave your house. And who knows they might decide your kids get a dose plus some puberty blockers so they can decide later on gender. And of course going to church is a super spreader while going to casinos and strip clubs is ok. So no mo prayin until you get their dope.

  8. Interestingly, the news this morning explicitly stated that a single shot of the vaccine was half as effective as the 2-shot version.

    I suppose that if you flip the numbers around, an 89% efficacy leaves you 11% exposed, whereas a 94.5% efficacy leaves you only 5.5% exposed. And 5.5 is indeed half of 11. But it’s some twisted logic getting there. Who would typically say that 90% is half as good as 95%?

    1. In reality such a small people ACTUALLY GOT SICK during the trial, your ACTUAL risk reduction is very very very small. It’s only RELATIVE risk that looks big.

    2. Of what vaccine, they’re all different?

    3. They were correct. The author here is not reporting the study correctly.
      “…the vaccine efficacy for the prevention of COVID-19 was 82 percent after the first dose. Efficacy against severe COVID-19 occurring after the first dose was 88.9 percent. In comparison, the two-dose regimen is 95 percent effective against infection.”
      No, the first two figures represented overall efficacy for the entire group, counting any cases after dose #1 until the end of participation (median followup 2 months), and almost all of those participants received two doses of the vaccine. It does NOT represent efficacy for a one-dose regimen. The 52.4% efficacy you probably read is the correct efficacy for the period between dose 1 and dose 2. However this obviously does not give us any idea on the efficacy of a 1-dose regimen because that was not the goal of the study.
      BTW one of the NYT authors is a sociologist. Not a doctor. Not an epidemiologist. Not a vaccine scientist, although she does correctly suggest that further research needs to be done.

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  10. I really don’t care what someone says in the New York Times.
    Of course, there was no full scale testing with just one dose, so the NYT is ignoring “the science” again.
    “all the new that fits”

  11. Let me see if I have this right. The NYT published an op-ed piece from some doctors who say you can take just one dose of the vaccine. You can trust them on this, even though there was no testing of a single vaccine dose. It is all good. This is the same NYT who just retracted an entire podcast series because it was a total hoax.

    Yep, I’ll surely trust ’em here.

  12. Holy astounding coincidences! Just got off the phone with Mrs. Casual, an essential healthcare worker, who just got her first dose yesterday. She’s complaining of pain, numbness and tingling in the arm that got injected (yes, we’re fully aware that this happens even with placebos). It’s unclear whether she’ll get the second dose.

    Personally, at this point, I have several relatives who’ve been exposed to COVID, several with co-morbidities who contracted it and recovered in short order, and, now, one who’s been vaccinated and is experiencing complications because of the vaccine.

    Yay 2020!

    1. Oh man, good thing the pharmaceutical companies have immunity so if her symptoms get worse, she can’t sue!

      Because, you know, if it’s totally safe then they wouldn’t need indemnification, would they?

  13. Why even one dose? These vaccines are not tested to prevent death, only lessen the effects of a mild brush with the virus. So why take them at all and risk REAL death and severe reactions? This is beyond stupid…they know they couldn’t make a vaccine that would be used against severe Covid cases…it would be more toxic than the virus. The main purpose of these vaccines is to permanently alter your RNA which in turn will change your DNA…into what little boy Gates only knows. And as you get jab after jab, year after year, because there will be many more fake Covid pandemics every year, he will be building a nano-particle machine in your body that he will control…or it will control you.

    1. Lol

      Cell and molecular biology 101.

      You might have skipped that semester.

      Permanently alter your RNA. You don’t really know what RNA is do you?

      1. They don’t care what RNA is. A guy in a white lab coat, who calls himself a “scientist” says it’s ok. And that’s good enough for the libtards.

    2. i think you need to adjust your dosage.

    3. “…These vaccines are not tested to prevent death…”

      Now that is some special stupid right there. Really special.

  14. i understand the point here, but it seems it might be missing some important information. sure, that first shot might giver you 82% effectiveness, but for how long? is there any data on effectiveness past 20 days if you don’t get the second shot? it might be irresponsible to suggest only getting the one shot without knowing this. you might be able to get the vaccine to more people, but less of them might still have immunity by the time you finish.

    1. Another good point to consider.

  15. If Bailey’s figures are correct for the general population, it would indicate health care workers should indeed get two doses since they’re so likely to get exposed. The difference between 89 and 94% would be pretty important for them and we don’t want to lose them.

    1. The difference between 89 and 94% would be pretty important for them and we don’t want to lose them.

      If you didn’t want to lose them, you shouldn’t have postponed surgeries, mandated their kids stay home, locked them out of interstate travel, and/or laid off their spouses from non-essential positions. Far more were lost to the above measures (and similar) than were lost to COVID.

  16. The study was done based on a two dose regimen.

    Anything Ronald says here is speculation.

    1. Bailey is a moron and the company recommended dosage is two doses.

      Maks pussies can take my two doses and shove them up their commie asses..

  17. Why not just leave it to individual patients which level of protection they want?

    1. Forced broccoli intake requirments.

    2. It is up to the patients of course. Some occupations such as health care are going to have a requirement or you will have to give a reason for an exemption. They already have that for flu shots and TB tests.

      I know I have said it before. Back in the day in the department we had a 5’3” Jamaican nurse. On a certain day she would just roll by with a cart full of flu doses. She would just say “sign here and roll up your sleeve”. You did not mess around with this woman. All done snoopy band aid.

      The anti vax people here. Your choice but what are you afraid of? That nurse and many more medicals I worked with had more courage in critical situations than I have witnessed in a lifetime. She did not fear disease. She fought it.

      So if you think calling people “pussies” is something to be proud of that is on you brave warrior.

      1. Hey I agree, it is brave to risk injecting experimental, RNA altering chemicals into your veins. As for me, I’ll let them be the guinea pigs and wait a few years to see the LONGTERM effects.

        1. It does not “alter” RNA. Humans do not have the enzyme to replicate mRNA. Once it gets in the cell, it is intramuscular not intravenous, it does its job in initiating protein synthesis and is quickly degraded. The ribosomes in the muscle cells where it was injected pump out the protein for a while then go back to their normal state. The fragment of the viral spike protein coded for initiates an immune response.

          RNA viruses are different in that they come pre packaged with instructions to allow RNA and many other things it needs to replicate into new virions. Drugs like Remdesivir seek to interfere on that level.

          1. Humans do not have the enzyme to replicate mRNA.

            This is dumb on several levels. It’s like saying because a programming language doesn’t have an explicit ‘for/while loop’, it can’t be infected/corrupted.

            Humans absolutely do have reverse transcriptases which would allow for RNA to be transcribed to DNA and then replicated endlessly. I’m not saying this can/will happen in any concerning way, but the notion of “No RNA replicases, no problem.” is patently absurd.

  18. Ronald Bailey is still pretending he knows something about science. He has opinions, but so does my bartender.

    1. Well now you opened up to bartender jokes.

      My favorite.

      Guy walks into a bar in the middle of the day. Orders 10 shots of whiskey and starts downing them.

      The bartender says “hey something bothering you mate? You look kinda down.”

      Guy says “I’ll tell ya.”

      “You build 20 houses and walk down the street. Does anyone say “hey there goes Robbie the builder” “nahhh”

      Takes another shot.

      “You notice a school on fire. Run in and rescue a dozen children. Does anyone say “oh look there is Robbie the rescuer”

      “But you fuck ONE goat…”

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    The Bohemian waxwing

  20. “Why Use Two Doses of COVID-19 Vaccines When One Works Almost as Well?”
    Sorry Robbie, one does not work almost as well. Give more people only one round and you’ll have wasted it all.

    1. The difference is a few percentage points so you’re wrong. And it’s not Robbie.

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  22. While the idea is good it does not appear we have the data yet to make this decision. This might be a good time to follow-up with a study. If you can get reasonably long immunity at an acceptable rate (say 70%) then I think a move to single does will be good. I am not sure we can do that before summer and most people are vaccinated with the double dose. Assuming we need to revaccinate in a year, the single does could be useful then.

    1. No, we must have 100% safety before we can “open up”.

      1. Well I can only speak for myself, but I am not eating in a restaurant, drinking in a bar, flying on an airplane, or doing any else in a big crowd until I feel safe doing so.

        1. These activities never were completely safe.

          1. No they are not. I have gotten food poisoning and I had an interesting airplane fight once. That said I am not looking for complete safety, I am looking for a level of comfort. Not 100%, but not also where we are today.

  23. Why Use Two Doses of COVID-19 Vaccines When One Works Almost as Well?
    Money, the government is paying for the vaccines., Twice as much profit.

    1. The reason it is split into two doses is because if you gave a bigger dose all at once you trigger a bigger immune reaction which is what gives you the icky side effects.

      I do not think the pharm companies are being altruistic here but we are looking at low prices. Moderna vaccine is the most expensive so far and is around $32 a dose which is dirt cheap as pharm goes. Pfizer is expected to be around $20.

      Actually this technology has been worked on for years and this is the first big breakthrough. The big money will come when it can be applied to other things like cancer. The folks who started Moderna began with the idea of a cancer fighting drug.

  24. So with two doses, the failure rate is 5%, but with one, it’s 18%.
    That’s failing 3.6 times as often.
    Seems like a big difference to me.

  25. Interesting fun fact.

    I saw that Muslims in some places have been worried because a stabilizer used in some vaccines is pork derived. The article said that Muslim scholars are split on the issue because according to some the derived chemical is no longer pork.

    I don’t know but similar issues have come up in Judaism and were resolved on that basis and also on the basis of “saving a life” which takes priority over Kosher laws. I think there is a similar concept in Islam.

  26. If the first dose is placebo, with outcomes adjusted the way NASA GISS adjusts thermometer readings recorded back in the days of airplanes and relativity theory, these numbers would be about right. The ones that return and say “Thank you sir may I have another?” get the real thing. Call it artificial selection.

  27. Brazil copied the Nixon Anti-Libertarian law and alternates between fascism and communism. The current Prez’ commented on the Communivirus vaccine: “If you turn into an alligator, that’s your lookout.” So a cartoonist draws two reptilian faces in the swamp:
    “You new around here?”
    “Yep. Just been vaccinated.”

  28. Its just the virus which mutates so fast that by the time you are ready with vaccine for the original strain there are few more strains already in the market. I think thats the reason why you need multiple doses.

  29. Because close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades.

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  33. Why wear a mask, Ron, when not wearing one is about the same?

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