The Election Betting Markets Fell Short. They're Still the Most Flexible Predictor.
People with money on the line try harder than pundits to be right, and they adjust quickly when they've made a mistake.
People with money on the line try harder than pundits to be right, and they adjust quickly when they've made a mistake.
With government meddling, many farmers end up doing less with more, and people end up paying more for less.
If the midterms favor Republicans, their top priority needs to be the fight against inflation—whether or not they feel like they created the problem.
The idea that the Fed has the knowledge necessary to control the economy with perfectly calibrated policies was always an illusion.
Over time, betting has been a better predictor than polls, pundits, statistical models, and everything else.
The lack of statutory authority is the main issue raised by legal challenges to the plan.
The U.S. should instead reform immigration pathways for Haitians to come to America and remove barriers for NGOs to do work in Haiti.
Consumer Financial Protection Bureau
The Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals is right to notice that the CFPB is unique even among federal agencies that don't get their funding from Congress.
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From immigration to drug reform, there is plenty of potential for productive compromise.
Warnings of inflation and rising interest rates have long been tied to high and rising debt levels.
His administration has expanded deficits by $400 billion more than expected, even before we count recent spending.
Despite the state's law allowing no third-party House candidates to get on the ballot in 60 years, the Court declined to hear the case.
The Federal Prison Oversight Act would create an independent ombudsman to investigate complaints about the Bureau of Prisons, something prison advocacy groups have long called for.
If climate change is an emergency that requires immediate action, it makes sense to streamline environmental reviews that tangle green energy projects in red tape.
Democrats pander to immigrants but do little to liberalize the system. Meanwhile, Republicans' hostility to immigrants has increased.
So much for the idea that low interest rates meant the government could borrow endlessly with no consequences.
A genuine surprise: Politicians prioritize a bill’s possible success over partisan campaign signaling.
The narrowly averted strike would have been an economic catastrophe. The story of how we reached the brink of that disaster is an illustrative one.
The Republican senator improbably claims his bill is authorized by the 14th Amendment and the Commerce Clause.
A compromise to protect religious freedom may bring on more Republican support.
Biden says Republicans are plotting a repeat of 2020 in 2024. Maybe Congress should do something to prevent that?
Blaming the ballot system ignores the fact that many Alaskans simply did not think the former governor really represented them.
The likely answer is "yes." There are three types of potential litigants who probably qualify.
U.S. counterterrorism action in Somalia hasn’t been approved by Congress, but it rages on anyway.
Mary Peltola will only be the third Democrat, as well as the first Native Alaskan, to represent Alaska since it became a state.
From cronyist subsidies to an unfair tax code, there are several key fixes Congress could make to better serve the public.
After redistricting, neither representative was willing to run in a different district, leading to a lengthy, expensive, and unnecessary campaign.
Despite an overwhelming sense that the country is headed in the wrong direction, the only way most voters will fire an incumbent is by voting for a different incumbent instead.
Why should we believe that this boondoggle will produce better results than hundreds of other corporate welfare programs?
But it will raise taxes and sic thousands of new IRS agents on American households.
Cynical single-party gerrymandering contributes to and is driven by the hyperpartisanship that defines American politics right now.
If all of the ballot initiatives succeed, pot will be legal in 25 states.
The U.S. may not realize it, but it has the upper hand. It turns out communism doesn't work.
A comprehensive catalog of every case in which the Court considered a constitutional challenge to an act of Congress
Asking America's agriculture industry to stand on its own two feet remains a third rail in American politics.
It also spends billions on new green energy programs, and it lets the IRS hire 87,000 new agents.
Many conservatives no longer appear to care much for fiscal conservatism.
So why do Democrats keep equivocating on the point that households making under $400,000 may be targeted for more audits by an expanded IRS?
But thousands of Afghans who helped U.S. forces are still stuck in Afghanistan under Taliban rule.
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More airline workers and more flights—not bailouts and restrictions on mergers—is the better policy.
The West Virginia senator proposes marginal reforms to a federal permitting process that policy wonks say needs a root-and-branch overhaul.
Even while conceding that the rifles they want to ban are commonly used for lawful purposes, they refuse to grapple with the implications.
Recent polling suggests that Americans are starting to recognize that such laws make no sense.
Here's what's in the $1 billion reauthorization package.