An argument for humility in the face of pandemic forecasting unknown unknowns.
It's ten times more powerful than the current U.S. effort.
The vaccines are great news, but the winter still looks bleak.
Social connectivity, prior immunity, and behavior changes may all contribute.
Stanford epidemiological model predicts self-flattening while MIT forecasts continued epidemic growth.
What might learning to live with COVID-19 look like?
The leaked documents also expect nearly 200,000 people to be infected daily by the end of the month.
Benchmarks for determining accuracy of projections are set.
A new study in Lancet Infectious Diseases makes a somewhat lower estimate
Great news if true, but only massive population testing can tell us if that's really so.
A close look at the new study from Imperial College which models worst-case scenarios and makes the case for social distancing.
Looking at better and worse projections.
"Stop using the worst-case scenario for climate warming as the most likely outcome"
New report declares world must be off fossil fuels entirely by 2050.
Paul Romer overturns limits-to-growth nonsense, and William Nordhaus projects climate change damages.
Combining econometric and climate models: How lucky do you feel?
That would mean more time to address whatever problems man-made climate change may cause
"We calculated that value as 1.1 C (almost 2° Fahrenheit), while climate models estimate that value as 2.3 C (about 4.1° F)"
Global per capita income now is $10,000. How much should we spend to prevent climate change losses in 2100?
It depends on what the meaning of the word "hiatus" is.
The novelist, activist, and BoingBoing founder on cyber warfare, Uber-style reputation economics, and what he's likely to get arrested for someday.
Does new study reconcile controversies about the 'global warming hiatus'?
New York Times columnist notes the uncertainties in climate science; progressives want him fired.
Models versus reality.
You'll see the average global temperatures now are about where they were 9,000 years ago
And has the temperature signal for man-made global warming finally emerged?
If you preach to choir, at least try to be fair in your sermon.
Come by at 11 am Tuesday, June 7 to hear author Robin Hanson and me.
Actually, no. The Capitol is in no danger.
Also carbon emissions rate highest in 66 million years
Unfortunately, there is no shortage of would-be Secretaries of the Future.
Shooting down Kurt Vonnegut's proposal for a Secretary of the Future
So says the new U.N. analysis of national climate plans from 146 countries
The problem of programming ethics into autonomous vehicles
No sign yet that global warming is making hurricane damage worse
Climate model projections fail even worse, running way too hot, if these data stand up to scrutiny
New Climate Model Simulations Project Global Warming At Rates Unprecedented For At Least the Past 1,000 Years by 2020
A falsifiable prediction finally - only five years away
Combined climate and econometric computer models produce any desired result.