What We Got Right and Wrong About 2021 (and What We Predict for 2022)
Plus, the CDC's amateur psychoanalyzing.
Predictions
Earth Day Turns 50
Half a century later, a look back at the forecasters who got the future wrong—and one who got it right
Don't Trade Stock Tips or Obsess About the Fed, Read Moby Dick Instead
You need to be inoculated from some strange but popular notions about the economy.
Reason Once Tried To Predict the Future. How Did We Do?
A generation later, three major themes still resonate.
Master Resource Reprises My Takedown of the National Academy of Sciences' Energy Projections
How is America's Energy Future looking nine years after I first panned it? Not so good.
The Next President
Michelle Obama has better odds of being the next president than Hillary Clinton.
How Political Extremism Sways Presidential Elections and Public Policy
Models of American electoral behavior suggest that Clinton should lose, but worries about extremism may Trump
Climate Change Prediction Fail?
What did 'climate hero' James Hansen actually predict back in 1986?
What Did 'Climate Hero' James Hansen Actually Predict Back in 1986?: New at Reason
And has the temperature signal for man-made global warming finally emerged?
Sliding Down the Super-Cycle: Resource Doom Postponed Indefinitely
Legendary investor Jeremy Grantham admits he was wrong about "peak everything."
Happy Earth Day: A Reprise of Failed Doom
A trip down memory lane of failed Earth Day predictions past.
A U.S. Department of the Future Is a Really Bad Idea
Unfortunately, there is no shortage of would-be Secretaries of the Future.
A U.S. Department of the Future Is a Really Bad Idea: New at Reason
Shooting down Kurt Vonnegut's proposal for a Secretary of the Future
A Response To: Where Have All the Peak Oilers Gone?
Dancing on the grave of peak oil clearly annoys somebody.
Humanity Extinct by 2100?
A child born today may live to see humanity's end, unless…, says Reuters.
Intrade Prediction Market Targeted by Our Commodity Futures Trading Commission (For Absolutely No Good Reason)
In a press release strangely devoid of any mention of anyone being victimized or defrauded, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) announces it is suing Intrade, the famous "prediction market" business, based in Ireland.
NSA 1990s Report Showcases Wildly Inaccurate Predictions About Computing's Future
But the government is good at forecasting everything else
It's Hard to Make Predictions, Especially About the Future
The new book Future Babble explains why dart-throwing monkeys are better at predicting the future than most pundits.