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Predictions

archives

Archives

From the Archives: May 2020

Excerpts from Reason's vaults

Reason Staff | 4.30.2020 6:00 AM

earthday

Earth day

Earth Day Turns 50

Half a century later, a look back at the forecasters who got the future wrong—and one who got it right

Ronald Bailey | 4.22.2020 6:00 AM

topicseconomics

Economics

Don't Trade Stock Tips or Obsess About the Fed, Read Moby Dick Instead

You need to be inoculated from some strange but popular notions about the economy.

Deirdre McCloskey | 12.19.2019 6:30 AM

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History

Reason Once Tried To Predict the Future. How Did We Do?

A generation later, three major themes still resonate.

Virginia Postrel | 11.8.2018 6:00 AM

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Energy

Master Resource Reprises My Takedown of the National Academy of Sciences' Energy Projections

How is America's Energy Future looking nine years after I first panned it? Not so good.

Ronald Bailey | 1.19.2018 2:01 PM

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Donald Trump

The Next President

Michelle Obama has better odds of being the next president than Hillary Clinton.

John Stossel | 4.26.2017 12:01 AM

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Donald Trump

How Political Extremism Sways Presidential Elections and Public Policy

Models of American electoral behavior suggest that Clinton should lose, but worries about extremism may Trump

Ronald Bailey | 10.28.2016 1:30 PM

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Climate Sensitivity

Climate Change Prediction Fail?

What did 'climate hero' James Hansen actually predict back in 1986?

Ronald Bailey | 6.17.2016 1:30 PM

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Predictions

What Did 'Climate Hero' James Hansen Actually Predict Back in 1986?: New at Reason

And has the temperature signal for man-made global warming finally emerged?

Ronald Bailey | 6.17.2016 1:30 PM

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Government planning

Who Wants To Be Secretary of the Future?

Everyone, apparently.

Ronald Bailey | 6.1.2016 12:00 PM

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Super-Cycles

Sliding Down the Super-Cycle: Resource Doom Postponed Indefinitely

Legendary investor Jeremy Grantham admits he was wrong about "peak everything."

Ronald Bailey | 5.13.2016 1:30 PM

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Earth day

Happy Earth Day: A Reprise of Failed Doom

A trip down memory lane of failed Earth Day predictions past.

Ronald Bailey | 4.22.2016 3:01 PM

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Future

A U.S. Department of the Future Is a Really Bad Idea

Unfortunately, there is no shortage of would-be Secretaries of the Future.

Ronald Bailey | 3.18.2016 1:30 PM

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Future

A U.S. Department of the Future Is a Really Bad Idea: New at Reason

Shooting down Kurt Vonnegut's proposal for a Secretary of the Future

Ronald Bailey | 3.18.2016 1:30 PM

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Peak oil

A Response To: Where Have All the Peak Oilers Gone?

Dancing on the grave of peak oil clearly annoys somebody.

Ronald Bailey | 1.22.2016 3:10 PM

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Extinction

Humanity Extinct by 2100?

A child born today may live to see humanity's end, unless…, says Reuters.

Ronald Bailey | 6.19.2015 10:07 AM

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Oil prices

Oil to Surge to $200 Per Barrel: Or Maybe Collapse to $20 Per Barrel

Whatever.

Ronald Bailey | 2.10.2015 11:41 AM

Environmentalism

Global Extinction Rates Have Likely Been Exaggerated

Ronald Bailey | 1.25.2013 11:26 AM

Government Spending

Predictions Are Hard, Especially About the Future, and Especially About Estimating the Excesses of Government Debt

Brian Doherty | 12.28.2012 12:23 PM

Predictions

Intrade Prediction Market Targeted by Our Commodity Futures Trading Commission (For Absolutely No Good Reason)

In a press release strangely devoid of any mention of anyone being victimized or defrauded, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) announces it is suing Intrade, the famous "prediction market" business, based in Ireland.

Brian Doherty | 11.26.2012 10:45 PM

Predictions

NSA 1990s Report Showcases Wildly Inaccurate Predictions About Computing's Future

But the government is good at forecasting everything else

Reason Staff | 11.12.2012 3:56 PM

Economics

Third Summer of Recovery Is Already Over

Tim Cavanaugh | 4.16.2012 4:38 PM

Paul Ehrlich

It's Hard to Make Predictions, Especially About the Future

The new book Future Babble explains why dart-throwing monkeys are better at predicting the future than most pundits.

Ronald Bailey | 4.5.2011 6:00 PM

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