Trump Administration Projects 200,000 American COVID-19 Deaths by June 1

The leaked documents also expect nearly 200,000 people to be infected daily by the end of the month.


"We're going to lose anywhere from 75-, 80- to 100,000 people," President Donald Trump said on Sunday during a Fox News COVID-19 town hall. That may be an underestimate, according to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) projections that have been leaked to The New York Times.

According to the leaked projections, daily U.S. deaths could rise from around 1,500 a day now to 3,000 by June 1, for a death total of 200,000 by the end of the month. The daily number of new COVID-19 infections would rise from 25,000 now to nearly 200,000 by then. Total confirmed cases currently stand at around 1.2 million and 70,000 deaths.

It is worth noting that the number of reported U.S. COVID-19 deaths have tended to be significantly higher than the CDC's projections.

These internal Trump administration projections are even more pessimistic than the projections from the machine learning model developed by independent researcher Youyang Gu and his colleagues. That model estimates that U.S. COVID-19 deaths will likely exceed 100,000 by June 1.

Let's hope that both of these forecasts will turn out to be badly wrong.

UPDATE: Statistician Nate Silver points to an apparent divergence between the CDC's confirmed cases and death rate projections. Currently, about 25,000 new COVID-19 cases are detected each day and about 1,500 Americans succumb daily to the disease. In the leaked projections, confirmed COVID-19 cases grow eightfold to 200,000 per day by June 1, whereas the death rate doubles to 3,000 per day.

One possible explanation for this mismatch is that the CDC expects expanded testing to confirm lots more mild and asymptomatic cases that in previous months have been largely missed. Since most people newly diagnosed with mild and asymptomatic cases will not die of the disease, the number of deaths relative to confirmed cases would thereby fall. Another factor to consider is that COVID-19 deaths tend to lag confirmed cases by two to three weeks.

In the meantime, the White House is disavowing the CDC projections. "This is not a White House document nor has it been presented to the Coronavirus Task Force or gone through interagency vetting," said White House spokesman Judd Deere in statement. "This data is not reflective of any of the modeling done by the task force or data that the task force has analyzed."

NEXT: Lockdown Is Ending, Whether Governments Approve or Not

Editor's Note: We invite comments and request that they be civil and on-topic. We do not moderate or assume any responsibility for comments, which are owned by the readers who post them. Comments do not represent the views of or Reason Foundation. We reserve the right to delete any comment for any reason at any time. Report abuses.

  1. If you get to make up the numbers you can make them whatever you want. Why even listen anymore?

    1. The numbers have caught up to the deniers, so now they say the numbers are fake.

      1. I mean I’ve maintained the whole time shutting this country down for 100-200 they originally stated back in march-april wasn’t worth this. Even if I was skeptical the total deaths would get this high.

        1. Change Your Life Right Now! Work From Comfort Of Your Home And Receive Your First Paycheck Within A Week. No Experience Needed, No Boss Over Your Shoulder… xzs.Say Goodbye To Your Old Job! Limited Number Of Spots Open…
          Find out how HERE……More detail here

      2. “Deniers”

        Says the “they” who won’t accept biological reality.
        I cannot think of someone with less scientific credibility than yourself.

      3. So just burying your head with the multiple sources saying the numbers are bullshit? Even the CDC says not every death has actually been tested dummy.

      4. You started with 2.5 million.

    2. And turns out this entire report is bullshit. Not from the administration, never presented to the covid task force. It is from FEMA, not exactly the group in charge of projections.

      For fuck sakes ronnie, it is getting embarrassing for you.

      1. And they did so well last week tamping down all the orangemanbad reporting errors.

  2. After all of the previous failings of the CDC avidly pointed out on these pages, why should any projection by the CDC be taken with more than a grain of salt. They are against the lifting of “stay-at-home” orders, so they give an inflated death projection to make their political points. If those higher numbers hold true, we’ll get a “told you so” moment. If the numbers come in below their projections, well then, “Great job public in helping mitigate this despite the removal of “stay-at-home” orders”. It’s a win/win for them. Remember, it’s not about informing the public. It’s about people only having faith in their elected officials.

    1. Remember, it’s not about informing the public. It’s about people only having faith in their elected officials.

      And unelected bureaucrats. It’s especially important that people who their “betters” are.

      1. *people remember who*

        My kingdom for an edit button.

    2. After all of the previous failings of the CDC avidly pointed out on these pages, why should any projection by the CDC be taken with more than a grain of salt.

      Because, as the headline says, this is the Trump Administration making these statements. Sure, later the article goes on to state that the White House repudiated the statement, but it’s not like the White House is part of the Trump Administration. And it’s not as if the NYT might have any sort of agenda or anybody working with the CDC might have an agenda and be aware of the NYT’s agenda and therefore leak contradictory information to people they know would be eager to publish contradictory information, because the Trump Administration speaks with one voice and thinks with one mind so there’s never any differences in opinions or disputes in which facts and assumptions should go into forming the opinions. The science is settled and the experts are agreed, we should listen to the experts. Anybody who disagrees with the experts is obviously not an expert and shouldn’t be listened to.

    3. It’s all about control for the Medical-Pharmaceutical-Govt. Complex, so they have to keep the fear going….That is why the CDC bullied Drs. to lie on Death Certificates & list almost everything as CV-19…I would guess at least 25% of CV-19 deaths are BS!….The lockdown over this virus is the biggest Criminal Fraud in the history of the world!

      Then, I saw this today:

  3. Let’s hope that both of these forecasts will turn out to be badly wrong.

    Given all the other forecasts we’ve seen over the month, this one will also be badly wrong.

  4. Looks like the actual trend is flat.

    1. Looking at the daily deaths it looks like after throwing out the outliers the trend may be slightly downward from about April 15th on.

  5. Even of a million Americans died it wouldn’t be worth destroying the economy because 326 million would still have to go on with life.

    1. What is the “destroying the economy” that you anticipate? Capital and labor do not disappear. Once it it safe to mobilize the economy there is no reason to believe that the market will not be producing at full capacity.

      If anything, the economy will be damaged by the morons in Washington with their fiscal stimulus and 0% interest rates.

      1. Before the virus hit, America’s unemployment rate was 3.5%, the lowest in 50 years. Now Goldman Sachs predicts unemployment could spike to 15% by midyear. A St. Louis Federal Reserve economist grimly predicts 32% unemployment — worse than during the Great Depression.

        No model or guesswork is required to foresee the deadly impact. Job losses cause extreme suffering. Every 1% hike in the unemployment rate will likely produce a 3.3% increase in drug overdose deaths and a 0.99% increase in suicides according to data provided by the National Bureau of Economic Research and the medical journal Lancet. These are facts based on experience, not models. If unemployment hits 32%, some 77,000 Americans are likely to die from suicide and drug overdoses as a result of layoffs. Scientists call these fatalities deaths of despair.

        Then add the predictable deaths from alcohol abuse caused by unemployment. Health economist Michael French from the University of Miami and a co-author found a “significant association between job loss” and binge drinking and alcoholism.

        The impact of layoffs goes beyond suicide, drug overdosing and drinking. Overall, the death rate for an unemployed person is 63% higher than for someone with a job, according to findings in Social Science & Medicine.

        1. Crime, drug use, and suicide are all valid concerns, but by themselves are not damage to the economy. Of course we are seeing short-term economic problems, and not every individual business is going to survive, but they will be replaced and I am not sure if there is a reason to believe that next year at this time we will notice much of an impact from this.

          1. Fuck off idiot sock

      2. its kind of hard to restart a business when you diminished all your assets staying afloat during the lock down and every person who was going to add on or build can’t because they spent that money staying afloat. Money only grows on government trees not in everyones back yard

      3. Once it it safe to mobilize the economy there is no reason to believe that the market will not be producing at full capacity.

        It may bounce back eventually, but it’s not going to be overnight. Some of the people who have lost their jobs over the last month are not going to be rehired immediately. Some may never get their old jobs back and may be out of work for several months if not a year or more depending on how fast demand recovers. What happens to them in the meantime?

        If anything, the economy will be damaged by the morons in Washington with their fiscal stimulus and 0% interest rates.

        On that point I agree. The massive stimulus spending and 0% interest is going to wreck the economy even after things go back to normal (which contradicts the idea that the economy will bounce back to full capacity). Between the shutdowns and the stimulus we’ve pretty fucked ourselves for the foreseeable future. We’re probably looking at a “lost decade” at minimum.

        1. Definitely not overnight, didn’t mean to give that impression. But when I hear the phrase, “destroying the economy,” I envision long-term damage like the 07-08 recession. There is reason to expect that specific individuals will be hurt from this, but can we extrapolate that onto the economy as a whole?

          Plenty are still working and while businesses may not be making profits their expenses must have also decreased. Shutdowns don’t reverse the market, they pause it. Even if some small businesses and individual jobs are lost, the United States has the capital and consumer demand ready to restore whatever may be lost.

          1. Fuck off idiot sock.

            1. Surely you can troll better than that.

              1. How’s this; Fuck off, Jeff,

          2. “I envision long-term damage like the 07-08 recession. There is reason to expect that specific individuals will be hurt from this, but can we extrapolate that onto the economy as a whole?”

            Well, some respected economists have predicted the V-shaped recovery you seem to favor, while other respected economists have predicted a much shallower, longer recovery, akin to 2008 or worse. You say “Plenty are still working”, but no, many are not. The US unemployment rate is expected to pass 10% for April. Many small business owners will not be able to bring back their businesses, and so for their former employees, there is no job to return to, and they’ll have to find another in an exceptionally tight job market.

      4. Shut up idiot sock

    2. So much talk of “sacrifice” early on in this debacle—the young and fit sacrificing short term freedom to keep the vulnerable safe. To which I said, okay, if we’re actually going to use the “s-word,” then it needs to be used the other way around. And I was called heartless.

      1. Let the old live their natural course.
        If The Rona gets them or something else, so be it.
        Kill the panic mongers.
        If they want sacrifice, let them be it

    3. Guess what? In 2019 on average 8000 people died per day in the US. That means about a million people died every 4 months.

      1. And every one of those deaths costs our economy millions of dollars. People are a valuable resource and that’s the only reason the government is going to such length they are to avoid these deaths. It’s not from some sort respect for the preciousness of human life as they’d like you think. It’s actually cheaper to shut everything down and blow trillions of dollars.

  6. Sooner or later the virus is going to run out of 79-year-old people already on death’s door to infect.

    1. That’s when wave 2 comes and kills everyone else put of anger.

      1. Or social justice.

  7. They must be using the same computer modeling software they use to predict that the North pole was supposed to be ice free by 2007.

  8. Um …. didn’t the CDC just revise it’s COVID-19 death figures?

    Unless I am reading this wrong, or missing something (which is completely possible since I am a layman), it seems that as of May 4, 2020, they can only account for 38,576 death *from* COVID.

    Anyone know anything about this?

    1. Those are the confirmed tested numbers. The 67k is the other CDC guidance that’s adds:

      “In cases where a definite diagnosis of COVID cannot be made but is suspected or likely (e.g. the circumstances are compelling with a reasonable degree of certainty) it is acceptable to report COVID-19 on a death certificate as ‘probable’ or ‘presumed.'”

      1. So, for lack of a better term, they are admitting they fudged close to half the total number of deaths?

        1. Well when uncertain, be pessimistic and take in a 20% bonus per death.

        2. That works both ways, right? Meaning, a boatload of deaths that were actually KungFlu, but errantly classified as something else.

          1. The burden is on the party making the claim.

          2. Seeing as we have multiple doctors claiming they are being told to put covid on everything, dont think we have to worry about the other way.

  9. Your first sentence contradicts your title.


  10. So the models are predicting a second upward trend after the plateau despite the fact that no country so far (including those further along the curve than the US) has shown such trends. In fact, the only commonly infectious disease that displays such a behavior is influenza. Notably, this is the first year in, well, ever that influenza has not shown the double-bump pattern.

    It’s plausible that COVID-19 might show the double-bump pattern. But that should be represented by wider error margins in the out-data. There is no current basis for simply assuming it.

    1. I thought Singapore had a “second wave”/ double bump, or was that really just a delayed singe bump? I haven’t seen the actual data for them, I just know that there’s some hand wringing over how they supposedly got hit by a second wave when they lifted some of their restrictions.

      In fact, I wonder if that’s where the CDC’s 200,000 deaths estimate is from? Maybe they’re assuming a big second wave of infections now that states are starting to slowly open back up.

      1. Singapore’s health site.

        Statistical noise.

  11. It is worth noting that the number of reported U.S. COVID-19 deaths have tended to be significantly higher than the CDC’s projections.

    Very interested to know how accurate these reports are, one way or the other.

    1. And the time frame of projections he is limiting that inference to.

  12. Whole Foods has 87K employees. They have had 260 C19 cases and 2 deaths as of the end of April. They aren’t sheltering; they are out dealing with 100s of people every day.

    For the same time period, the UFCW (grocery store, etc, employee union) with 1.3 million members has had 5322 cases and 72 deaths.

    This from a union, not Fox News. I don’t think they’d undercount.

      1. I suppose if I wasn’t so lazy I could get the dates of the stories in this one and create a graph of cumulative/daily cases over time.

    1. Similar rates. What am I missing?

      1. Grocery store workers aren’t quarantined. They are out dealing with 100s of people a day and just taking precautions.

        Shouldn’t they be dropping dead left and right if the panic porn is accurate?

        As of the end of April:
        Whole Foods: 87K employees, 2 deaths.
        UFCW: 1.3 million members, 72 deaths.

        1. Shouldn’t they be dropping dead left and right if the panic porn is accurate?

          Yes, if panic porn is accurate.

          No, if IFR is 1% and extremely biased towards elderly and very obese.

          (Remember that deaths significantly lag infection rates. Germany was a huge outlier for a while. Turns out they just got it a little later and now they’re with the rest of us.)

          1. You believe shitty Chinese data why are you even talking

          2. Whopping 373 workers at meatpacking plant test positive for COVID-19 — and they were all asymptomatic

            1. Weak evidence for the multiple strains theory.

              Possibly the test is bad.

              More likely this is another case of people not grokking that symptoms happen a couple weeks after infection and death takes at least another two weeks.



            2. Notice that this is the complete opposite of the grocery store example where there are surprisingly few infections.

              1. “Sidd Finch v2.01
                May.4.2020 at 4:16 pm
                Didn’t say they are shit”


                “Sidd Finch v2.01
                May.4.2020 at 3:52 pm
                Their numbers may be shit”



  13. Poor fucking ronnie. Still pushing the models. And still pushing high end projections. Why the lack of articles on the trustworthiness of the data in the first place ronnie?

  14. I thought there was supposed to 2 million death in the U.S. alone. Looks like Trump is winning

    1. No no no. The new gaslighting is he could have prevented every death.

      1. I personally find that argument made by Team D revolting.

  15. Yeah, no. That model looks like total bullshit. It’s just a scare tactic to get people to keep locking down.

    Seriously fuck this. If this is how we are going to be treated, expect retribution at election time.

  16. If your projection model has a kinda flat section 47 days in, it’s probably more about impressing the biologist chicks and shitlib reporters with 5000 pages of code than accurately predicting anything.

  17. What are the parameters of the model? Why would cases and deaths inflect up right after the last real data? Something smells here.

  18. Ronald Bailey should stop spreading panic-inducing scare stories. Models are not reality. They are guesses based on arbitrary and untestable and unrealistic assumptions.
    Economic models, climate change models, coronavirus spread models – all attempt to predict the future outcome of complex processes where there are an unknown number of unidentified independent variables affecting the processes, the relationships between the variables are unknown, and starting conditions are unknown. In other words, unreliability is guaranteed. Models are the tools of charlatans and soothsayers and political hacks. Buy into them at your peril!

    1. He can’t help himself, he’s a liberal.

  19. Of course, they dont talk about the 150,000.00 plus who did not die, but now have scarred lungs, permanent breathing issues, some slight brain damage and other liver and blood disorders…Americans that is. Anyway, I do predict an upside down W shaped recovery, with another stimulus, clitoral, not vaginal.

  20. Hey Ron, what the hell ever happened to “global warming”? The forecast says it’s going to get cold as a motherfucker again a couple of days!

  21. So, we are to get excited over the most current batch of CV “related” death projections when all the past ones were so accurate?

    1. Report back to Karen 101 class for re-training…

  22. Start now earning more than $ 14,000 a month online salary. I received my second salary last month of $ 15823. This is my salary of just one month, doing an easy job online. I am very happy to have this job now and to be able to make thousands available every month online. Everyone can do this job now and make more information available online, just copy and paste this site into your browser and follow the details to get started …….

    See this link here — >>

Please to post comments

Comments are closed.