Coronavirus

What Percentage of COVID-19 Patients Are Likely To Die?

A new study in Lancet Infectious Diseases makes a somewhat lower estimate

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Between 100,000 and 240,000 Americans could die from COVID-19 according to epidemiological model projections cited by coronavirus task force members during a White House press conference on Tuesday. "This could be a hell of a bad two weeks," said President Trump. "Or maybe even three weeks." Policies that have locked down the economies of the U.S. and many other countries are based to a considerable extent on the dire projections from a variety of epidemiological models. But are they right, asked my Reason colleague Jacob Sullum.

"I've looked at all the models. I've spent a lot of time on the models. They don't tell you anything. You can't really rely upon models," said Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, who functions as Trump's coronavirus guru, at a task force meeting, according to the Washington Post. And yet, here we are.

Crudely put, models need validation by matching their projections to actual data. In this case, the outputs of infectious disease models might be compared to how well their projections match data on infection, hospitalization, and mortality trends from past epidemics. Of course, certain parameters such as the basic reproduction number and attack rates will have to be adjusted to take into account the differences between, say, influenza viruses and the novel coronavirus.

It turns out that most infectious disease epidemiological models have not been validated by comparing their outputs to empirical data. A 2018 comprehensive review article in the journal Epidemic of 78 global disease spread models found that model validation is uncommon. Why? Most likely, the researchers suggest, because there is a lack of suitable validation data due to the fact that pandemics are relatively rare events.

A more scathing 2009 study in The American Journal of Epidemiology narrowly focused on the accuracy of various statistical methods for predicting the hospitalization rates of young children for respiratory syncytial virus and/or influenza by matching their projections to seven years of empirical data in Quebec. "No method provided accurate or consistent estimates for both viruses and outcomes," concluded the researchers. "Because major public health decisions are made and population programs are promoted on the basis of estimates from these statistical methods, investment in their careful validation is essential to guide rational public policy decisions. Until then, their limitations should be made explicit and estimates used cautiously."

Since models are at best hazy guides to the future, can parsing real-time data from the early stages of this pandemic provide better insights on how it might unfold over the coming months? For example, it would be extremely helpful to know the percentage of infected people who eventually die of the disease.

One often-heard statistic is the "case-fatality rate," that is, the percentage of people diagnosed with the disease who will die of it. This afternoon that figure stands at 2.5 percent for the U.S. A huge problem is that the magnitude of this figure is significantly inflated because it does not take into account people who are asymptomatic or who suffer and recover at home and thus do not come into contact with the medical surveillance system. What we really need to know is the infection-fatality rate, that is, the percentage of all of the people infected who eventually die of the disease.

A new study in Lancet Infectious Diseases attempts to figure out what percentage of infected people in each age cohort will require hospitalization. The researchers aim to determine those rates and the overall case-fatality rate in real time by looking at several constrained COVID-19 datasets derived from near the beginning of the epidemic. These datasets included cases and deaths from a cohort of patients identified in China between January 1 and February 11, and several hundred cases detected outside of China and the passengers on the Diamond Princess cruise ship.

Applying adjustments for demography and location, the researchers found that the case-fatality rate for both Chinese and outside cohorts is about 1.4 percent. This basically matches the Chinese case-fatality rate reported in a March Nature Medicine study.

The researchers take the next step and try to estimate the number of undetected cases in Wuhan by applying the observed prevalence of infections among travelers repatriated on six flights from Wuhan over three days between January 30 and February 1. They ultimately calculate that the infection-fatality rate for COVID-19 in China is around 0.66 percent. This is about six times worse than the rate for seasonal influenza.

Notably, the infection fatality rate escalates with age. For infected people under age 50, well under 0.2 percent would likely die. For cohorts 50-59, 60-69, 70-79, and above 80 years of age, the estimated infection fatality rates are 0.6 percent, 1.9 percent, 4.3 percent, and 7.8 percent, respectively.

In an accompanying editorial, University of Miami statistician Shigui Ruan observes, "Even though the fatality rate is low for younger people, it is very clear that any suggestion of COVID-19 being just like influenza is false: even for those aged 20–29 years, once infected with SARS-CoV-2, the mortality rate is 33 times higher than that from seasonal influenza."

The researchers' low-end coronavirus attack rate—that is, the percentage of the population that would eventually be infected—is 50 percent. Assuming 50 percent of Americans were eventually infected, that would yield about 1.1 million deaths from COVID-19.

The big caveat here is that the researchers are trying to hit a moving target and could be missing by a mile. The actual lethality of this disease will become clearer in the next few weeks as more data, especially from population screening with antibody tests, comes in.

NEXT: The Federal Government Is Spending $60 Billion To Keep Mostly Empty Commercial Planes Flying Over the U.S.

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  1. Likely to die? All of them,
    at some point.

    1. One of the items that came out on Italy a week or two ago is that doctors put many of those who died at only living a year or two more if not infected.

      1. You get that, when your median fatality age in 85 or so, like Italy’s.

        The big problem with most of the papers mentioned in Bailey’s article is that they heavily rely on Chinese data. And Chinese data is garbage.

        On a happier note, so far it looks like another 30 k new cases and 1k deaths or so for the US. Which is better than 1800 new deaths or whatever it was predicted to balloon to by April 3. Steady state 1k dead/day is a really bad flu season, but not healthcare system crushing pandemic doom. At least it’s not growing. Of course, neither is the economy…

        1. Yeap. 2017 flu was 5k a week.

          1. Note, the CDC lumps pneumonia deaths in with flu.

          2. another macabre question to ponder: how many people dying from coronavirus would have died from the flu this year? Is the fatality rate A + B, or does A get reduced by B?

            1. https://imgur.com/AQjBDPH

              Flu/Pneumonia deaths down 33% since mass testing started :/

              1. The number of deaths due to covid 19 will increase even more. Unity is the key to getting rid of the disease. More news here: https://mobdroportugal.net/

        2. Oh, and I didn’t bother reading Bailey’s article close enough to check, but did he mention the WSJ article from a day or two, mentioning that Italy isn’t bothering to test many of the morts for COVID, but just recording the deaths and getting them in the ground ASAP?

          Something like 5-600 excess deaths for one town, compared to the same month last year, but only 150 or so officially from Covid. Interesting article.

          1. I commented about that a week or two ago and JFree got hysterical.

          2. Cuomo’s demand that the morgues not be emptied when this shit started was utter lunacy. I guess all that dunking on western history by the Diversity Brigade resulted in collective amnesia about what happens when you leave a bunch of dead bodies around for several days.

      2. 6500 deaths in USA supposedly tied to KungFlu in 10 weeks.

        Hysteria not required.

        1. Here’s a graphic that even a mentally deficient dimbulb such as yourself might understand. But probably not. https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/1712761/?fbclid=IwAR0WsMdJkWV3KfIbBKWDCmvMvEd_n0oPza4a3TvLIMd2nEpBym5Aloh-Dp8

          1. Wave your PANIC!!! flag, scumbag; yep, for all the screaming, it’s less than half the largest, and barely more than half of the second place.
            Here’s some suggestions that chicken-little ignoramuses you you *might* understand:
            Fuck off and die; make the world a smarter and better place.

            1. Here’s hoping the Rona takes your old, feeble, miserable existence and shoves my panic flag ,stick first, up your ass. Get a life, fucking loser.

              1. Poor hysterical sock troll.

          2. How many of those already had one of the following: Diabetes, Lung Disease, Cancer, Immunodeficiency, Heart Disease, Hypertension, Asthma, Kidney Disease, and GI/Liver Disease. If the NYC numbers are any indication, at least 98%.

            If COVID didn’t finish them off, one of those would have, likely in the next year.

            1. Your first statement might be true. You’re second one certainly is not, and even you know it.

              1. Neil Ferguson even admitted it in his follow-up. I hate to break this to you, but if 66% of NYC’s deaths have been confirmed to have had at least one of a certain set of underlying conditions, their chances for survival regardless of covid-19 were already pretty bad.

          3. Where did the assault rifle deaths come in on that list?

    2. yeah the headline answer is 100% lol

      1. I had to laugh as well. It was a stupid lede by Bailey, who should know better.

    3. What?!? That will be incredibly depressing news for most the the child-adults that pass for US voters and officials.

    4. The usual idiocy of the feds. Yep, the feds point out something anyone with an I.Q. over 10 knows….the shocking news that old and compromised people are more likely to die than a young man or woman in good health. This country needs to ditch the federal govt. as ANY other form of govt. would do better than our idiot feds.

  2. “The researchers’ low-end coronavirus attack rate—that is, the percentage of the population that would eventually be infected—is 50 percent.”

    Sorry. I really really doubt this is the low end.

    Stop panicking.

    1. “once infected with SARS-CoV-2, the mortality rate is 33 times higher than that from seasonal influenza.”

      This is fear mongering plain and simple. If your chance of dying is a 100 million to 1, changing it to 1 million to one multiplied your chance of dying by 100. But it is still a statistically negligible percentage.

      Stop panicking.

      1. Technically there’s never any point in panicking, even during an invasion of brain-eaters from Mars. Gotta keep a clear head in such situations.

        1. Now I’m waiting patiently for a comeback on the order of “at least *you’ll* be safe when the brain-eaters invade.”

          1. Depends on how hungry the brain eaters are. I’m sure they have some type of SNAP program for the small brains.

            1. At least you’ll be safe, Jesse, since they will consider your brain to be negative calories.

              1. Jesus fucking christ chipper. Are you that unfunny that you literally use the joke that Eddy was implying. God you’re so unfunny.

                1. Whoosh.

                  1. No, you’re just not funny.

                    1. Hey, he’s not nearly half as bad as sqrlsy.

                      Did he finally take our suggestions and kill himself? Haven’t seen him in a while. I hope covid doesn’t get him though. It would be a huge disappointment if he failed at killing himself too.

                  2. Woosh . . .

                  3. “Whoosh”

                    Only if you’re implying Eddy’s joke went over your head, Chipper.

          2. You never saw so many autistic old farts get excited, as when Switzerland reported “-3” in the new deaths column the other day, and one of them mentioned that, “At last! The zombie uprising has started!”

            1. 3 births?

              1. It’s a little early for the new births related to COVID to start showing up. But whoweeeee! Xmas is literally going to come a bit early for a bunch of OB/GYNs.

                What else can you do during a shelter at home order?

          3. I can sell you Martian brain eater repellent. $100 per can.

            1. I can’t believe you’d engage in profiteering during a crisis like this! It should only be about fifty dollars.

          4. It’s bad enough when jokesters have to explain their own jokes, but when straight men start explaining their own set-ups, . . .

        2. I don’t know why they would come to earth.

        3. An invasion of brain eaters from Mars?

          With a brain as big as mine, I’d be panicking.

  3. I know I have a twisted sense of humor, but I’m having a lot of fun watching The Rain on Netflix during this global pandemic. IT doesn’t hurt that August Alba is more than a little easy on the eyes.

    1. ‘August Alba’. Off to duckduckgo…

      Nah. Doesn’t help that she reminds me of my wife’s brother’s bitch of a wife.

      1. I googled, she looks hard lesbian.

        1. I still would

        2. Batting for the other team for sure.

    2. You said easy on the eyes, that bitch is Helen Hunt’s abortion.

  4. Strangely, I fixated on this:

    “Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases”

    So the same guy who deals with pandemics deals with peanut allergies and maybe pollen?

    1. Explains the peanut allergy panic.

      1. And we sure benefited from that delusion, right?

        But, Trust the Doctors!

        1. We actually made it worse by trusting doctors. The withholding peanuts until age 1 actually increased the allergy rate. Yay medicine!

          1. Yep, that was my point. But earnest doctors plus frightened parents plus eager do-something nannies plus coercive government (and schools and corporations) equals we fucked up.

            1. equals we got fucked.

              FTFY

          2. and now we’re stuck with pretzels on Southwest. if it’s ever safe to travel again.

    2. Considering we have a disease severe enough to be considered a pandemic about once every 7-8 years, he’s got to have something else to do, I guess.

      1. yup, more shutdowns in the future, because these worked “so” well.

  5. Anyway, the estimated rate-of-people-dying-earlier-than-they-would-in-the-absense-of-coronavirus seems like a lot. At least more than we’re generally used to.

    1. Hurry up and be nice to your rich Grandma. Or at least get her to buy a bunch of stuff with her Visa card.

  6. >>it does not take into account people who are asymptomatic or who suffer and recover at home and thus not come into contact with the medical surveillance system.

    Would have been nice if our tyrant betters had thought about this a month ago

    1. Not for them. Our tyrants think this is fine. After all, when they want to go to the beach now, they still can, and it’s perfectly empty, just for them.

      1. yeah in Dallas County the 14 days our stay-at-home Order was in effect 13 people died (may they r.i.p.) … the Order expired today so the County King extended the Order to May 31st … over 13 people

        at least he left the golf courses open …

        1. May 31?! Not April 30?

          They’re out of their fucking mind if they think they can roll with two more months of this shit. I’m not even sure Harris County will make it w/o widespread praised middle fingers by the 30th of April.

          1. wait my bad. 5/20/20. i’m putting a yard sign out that says Clay Jenkins is a Tyrant or something

            https://www.dallasnews.com/news/public-health/2020/04/03/dallas-county-extends-coronavirus-stay-at-home-order-until-may-20/

            1. Amen brother! When I’m my wife told me what Jenkins had done with this fucking extension, I almost woke my kids up I was yelling so loud.

              I would say more, but he seems like the type of piece of shit that would go after a website ala Preet.

            2. These state governors are tyrants.

              Good news is more and more Americans are saying fuck you to government snd getting out. Once the police try to stop them, the killing of government officials will begin. Civil war 2.0 will be in full effect.

              Or the tyrants will realize that they failed and roll back these ridiculous unconstitutional decrees of Martial Law and beg for forgiveness.

            3. This is longer than people would spend in fallout shelters!

              1. Yup. Two weeks post detonation. 14 weeks if you were insanely cautious, and really, you needed to move to a site out of the plume at that point. I intended to “pull through.”

                Though that episode of the new version of The Twilight Zone overstated it…

          2. these states and counties are bankrupting themselves with these shutdowns. the sales tax receipts are going to plummet.

        2. I like how basically the cure for Covid is to let old people do what they normally do and fuck the rest of us.

        3. “extended the Order to May 31st”
          2021?

  7. A lot more people than that better die or I’m going to be pissed. Lol!

    1. You’re far from alone in thinking that.

    2. So how do you think the political gains work out, after the pandemic fizzle and the 21st century Depression?

      Which party and personalities get the credit for “saving” us, and which get the blame for the economic hardships?

      1. Considering who controls the media, I think it’s a forgone conclusion who gets the blame.

        Hopefully voters don’t fall for it.

        1. Everyone’s praising Gavin Newsom because California led the way in destroying their economy over single digit deaths (at the time of the order). Hopefully the voters remember and he gets to lose his job too. But they’re California voters, so I’m not too optimistic. The Dems see presidential timber…

          1. All of the CA voters with brains, or who weren’t tied into fantastic jobs where it didn’t matter who the government was, moved.

            Fuck that fatuous piece of shit. I love CA, but got out as soon as I could.

  8. So … after weeks of “WE’RE ALL GOING TO DIE UNLESS WE TEST EVERY SINGLE PERSON WITHIN THE JURISDICTIONAL BOUNDARIES OF THE UNITED STATES” …. Reason and it’s army of crack “journalists” are firmly settling into “Eh, there’s no need to panic, the models are all wrong.”

    I love how this rag always follows the same patterns in covering everything: First, get completely hysterical about the subject matter and, second, when none of their hysteria materializes into anything, pivot back to reality as though sanity was always their position.

    Oh, and blame Trump for everything, anyway.

    1. Well of course blame Trump for everything. Orange Man Bad. Orange Man is Bad, right?

      1. Literally Hitler… Orange Hitler.

    2. In all fairness to Reason, you basically set forth the model the entire media operates under.

    3. You didn’t put near enough of the Reason special sauce on there. Get completely hysterical on the subject matter, stab libertarianism in the back a couple dozen times before kicking it’s corpse out the window into the dumpster, then, when none of their hysteria materializes into anything, pivot back to reality as though sanity, individual freedom, and the marketplace of ideas was always the position.

      You got the blame Trump part right.

  9. Try again. The number that matters is QALY, not deaths.

  10. So three to five times the traffic fatalities in 2018?
    So about one third the number of abortions?
    And yet, for this Communist disease, we destroy our economy?

    1. on the plus side, the shutdowns are probably reducing traffic deaths.

      1. Yes. It’s really funny how much total deaths per month really haven’t increased. If anything, they’ve decreased: social distancing helps fade deaths from cold/flu, quarantines stop traffic deaths, and both effects are drowning out Covid deaths.

        Go. Back. To. Work. This bug isn’t likely to kill those of you who are working.

        1. https://imgur.com/a/R4YhW7A

          Overall deaths are down nearly 20%, falling far below anything seen since this chart started in 2013.

    1. What if I want them in Urdu?

  11. Eddy
    April.3.2020 at 5:44 pm
    “Strangely, I fixated on this:
    “Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases”…”

    Read “The Band Played On”, Shilts.
    Fauci first made a name focusing on AIDS here in SF. According to the book, he did some pioneering work as a clinical MD and then as a research MD.
    But then, as AIDS became a political disease, he moved on to becoming an administrative (or political) MD; he was nothing if not skilled at that.
    MDs I’ve talked to still hold him in high regard, but none mentioned any particular, recent work.
    Any MD commenters?

  12. Needs to go here, too.
    Well, better late than never:
    Trump says enough PANIC!:

    “The CDC recommends people wear cloth masks in public – but Trump says he won’t”
    […]
    “…”The CDC is advising the use of nonmedical cloth face covering as a voluntary health measure,” Trump said during his Friday briefing. “It is voluntary. They suggested for a period of time. This is voluntary.”…”
    https://www.aol.com/article/news/2020/04/03/the-cdc-recommends-people-wear-cloth-masks-in-public-but-trump-says-he-wont/23969440/

    Perhaps if the local and state tin-pot dictators, along with most all “news” organizations would stop fanning the flames, some rationality might return.

  13. It turns out that most infectious disease epidemiological models have not been validated by comparing their outputs to empirical data.

    How conveeeeeeenient!

    1. sort of like string theory. my model has 11 dimensions. so what, mine has 17!

  14. “A huge problem is that the magnitude of this figure is significantly inflated because it does not take into account people who are asymptomatic or who suffer and recover at home and thus do not come into contact with the medical surveillance system.”

    The other side of that pancake is that the CFR is *underestimated* by counting deaths vs. *active* cases and not deaths vs. *recoveries*.

    Deaths/(Deaths + Recoveries)

    1. Cool story, bro.
      Try some believable numbers for your PANIC!!!!!! pitch.

      1. S et alia: No panic, just trying to figure out what’s going on. Stay well.

        1. If we test everyone, nobody will die.

          That’s science.

        2. “…No panic,..”

          You’ve missed JFree and Hihn.

        3. R.B.
          “S et alia: No panic, just trying to figure out what’s going on.”

          One aspect of the PANIC (and, yes it is such) concerns the total dislocation of what was a thriving economy, as a result of the government’s assuming control of it; no one (well, not no one) here has to be reminded of how government-run economies provide for the prosperity of the populations. They don’t.
          Now let’s make something clear: No activity, by government nor private actor, can “save” a life; what we are hoping for here is to prevent ‘early deaths’; the same metric which makes TSA a fucking failure once the human-hours lost are included in the calcs.
          Now, by allowing the government to take control of the economy, we have managed to put 10,000,000 people out of work in teh last two weeks. Ten million people have lost their jobs as a result of the PANIC!!!
          So, Ron, I offer this shown historical data as a trade off to the *predicted* data from the flu:

          “Do 40,000 people die in the United States for every 1% increase in unemployment?”
          […]
          “There are roughly 162 million workers in the US, therefore a 1% increase in unemployment corresponds to 1.62 million workers losing their jobs. According to this CDC data, for every 100,000 people aged 25-64 roughly 400 of them will die in a given year. That number comes from averaging the mortality rates for the age groups I assume make up most of the labor force. Therefore, for a given sample of 1.62 million working age people, we expect 6400 of them to die in a given year. This meta-analysis indicates that your risk of death increases by 63% when you lose your job. This means that 10,000 people will die instead of 6400, an increase of 4000 Americans per year…”
          https://skeptics.stackexchange.com/questions/39267/do-40-000-people-die-in-the-united-states-for-every-1-increase-in-unemployment

          Pretty sure all that converts to a historically shown increase in early deaths to be something close to 64,000 early deaths as a result of unemployment alone.
          Wanna tell me why we should continue with the PANIC?

        4. Poor Ronald Bailey.

          Much smarter people than him are working to solve the medical aspect of KungFlu.

          Much smarter people than him have already figured out this is hysteria propagated by the media.

          Bailey will never put together that the actions of his peers are why more and more Americans hate the media, consider them liars, and dont buy their garbage.

    2. The CDC says it takes 10-13 days for the average critical-case survivor to recover. One presumes the average death happens faster than that, since they don’t make it to the getting better part. So looking only at current deaths + current recoveries would still bias towards deaths.

      Also, only people with critical cases die, and only 5% of *diagnosed* cases are critical. That means most people who have been diagnosed but not recovered will recover.

    3. Which we don’t know, BB&D, until the pandemic is over.

      Though it can be a nasty surprise. The original SARS was thought to have a much lower CFR while the epidemic was going on. It was only at the end that it got bumped up to 10 percent or so.

      So far, the death numbers are climbing, but they’re not CLIMBING. Which is great. Social distancing shouldn’t be affecting the death numbers yet, given a IIRC, 3 week or so progression from infection to death, but perhaps antivirals and supportive therapy is lowering the death toll here?

  15. Whew what a party! 40+ people and quite the rager.

    I set some trees on fire while flame throwing the sanders effigy. His communist themed walker cracked and popped then exploded into the woods starting a small tree fire.

    God the United States of America and see us through the hysteria of Lefty traitors.

  16. Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, who functions as Trump’s coronavirus guru, at a task force meeting, according to the Washington Post. And yet, here we are.

  17. As I write, the Johns Hopkins data (total deaths divided by total cases, worldwide) has been climbing steadily for more than a week. It is now up to 5.4% fatalities. That is not a cherry picked number. That is for all the cases recorded to date, all over the world.

    I get that many here argue that percentage is too high, because the denominator does not include some number (unknown number) of asymptomatic cases, plus other cases which escape attention somehow. Presumably, to keep that reasoning from being pointless, there has to be a reckoning which brings these presently occult cases out of the shadows sometime. Maybe after the pandemic ends, someone will put a reliable-looking number to them, which will confirm the protests, and deliver consensus on a smaller fatality percentage.

    What I want is an explanation for why—if the numbers are converging toward a smaller fatality percentage after the epidemic ends—does the fatality percentage get larger over time now? If there is convergence toward a smaller fatality percentage, why isn’t the ongoing fatality percentage getting smaller and smaller—instead of larger and larger—as more and more of the epidemic goes into the record books?

    Seems like to make sense of that you have to presume that the percentage (not just the number) of (presently) asymptomatic cases is growing faster even than the percentage of fatalities—meaning perhaps that the pandemic is very rapidly expanding. Is there something about the time lag between exposure and first symptoms which can explain how that would occur? If so, would that imply a pandemic spreading so rapidly that the eventual percentage of the total population infected would be notably higher than expected? And with what dismaying implications for fatalities, even if they are finally counted at a lower percentage than measurements show now?

    1. What I want is an explanation for why—if the numbers are converging toward a smaller fatality percentage after the epidemic ends—does the fatality percentage get larger over time now?

      Answer: The rate of growth for deaths is greater than the rate in growth for new cases.

      1. Commenter_XY, I can’t follow that. It strikes me as unresponsive to the question about getting to the final accounting. Perhaps some hypothetical numbers would make your argument clearer to me. Please, try to take into account that everything we know about new cases suggests that the rate of increase, measured linearly, by counting cases one by one—like we count fatalities—is sharply on the increase.

        1. lathrop, I told you. Look at the relative difference in delta between the two (new cases, deaths) grow rates, and you have your answer in the short-term. As an aside, serologic testing is what will provide the ‘final answer’ you’re looking for by Labor Day, assuming this Wuhan coronavirus pandemic behaves as modeled by IHME, which is a pretty big assumption.

          Stay safe, stay healthy.

          1. Commenter_XY, indeed you told me. I asked about the long term, and you replied about the short term. Does that mean you are as baffled as I am about a rising short-term trend which is supposedly converging toward a smaller long-term number?

            1. They’re only testing severe cases. When you only test severe cases, 100% of your confirmed cases are severe.

              1. Once again, please address the issue. Initially, none of the cases are severe. They start out asymptomatic, at least as long as the virus incubates. Some, an unknown percentage, remain asymptomatic. But other cases progress to severe disease and to death. The experience thus far, with more than a million cases identified, is that as more cases are added to the count, the death percentage has gone up. Now you seem to be saying, apparently paradoxically, “Add yet more cases to the count, and the death percentage will go down.” That requires some kind of explanation, not a mere assertion. Maybe your assertion is, “I am positing that the cases added now will be more likely than previous cases to survive their exposure.” Okay. On what basis would you assert that?

                1. I’m saying the sample is obviously biased. If you keep testing people with severe cases, 100% of your confirmed cases will be severe. That has nothing to do with the percentage of cases that are ACTUALLY severe.

                  If we keep biasing our testing sample, we’ll never get the benefit of gathering the data that will show the true CFR.

                2. The reason is due to the growth rate of testing. Confirmed cases can only grow as quickly as testing. The number of new cases is outperforming the growth of capability to test. As testing is rationed to serious cases it looks like the death rate is rising faster than the new case rate.

                  1. And the deaths are lagged wrt the new positive cases. The deaths today are from the positive cases ~14 days ago. If the positive test rate is going down now, then the death rate in two weeks will go down.

                    1. Chipper, are you sure you are making mathematical sense? One way to interpret your comment would be that you are saying that with time the number of cases will decline, which will make the number of fatalities decline as well. Without something else, I don’t see that you have even touched the question of the percentage of fatalities. If some sizable fraction of virus victims take a long time to die, a sharply rising percentage of fatalities could be entirely consistent with a falling number of cases, and with your comment, right?

                  2. The government is also steering clear of negative test numbers. This number gives us a picture of how contagious this virus is.

                    On the cruise ship with a crew and passenger total of 3,711 only 712 got infected. 12 died.
                    2020 coronavirus pandemic on cruise ships

                3. Lathrop your citations fell off.

                  1. It’s all Johns Hopkins, as my first post said.

    2. Out of the shadows? I can count at least seven to ten people in my social circle alone, myself included, that have been diagnosed and have come out on the other side without any issues.

      It was not that bad. I’d place it on par with having a worse than usual cold, but not quite approaching the misery of full blown flu.

      There are likely millions of people like me who did not even know they had it.

      There are no shadows. We’re everywhere.

      1. Geraje Guzba, the shadows seem to be in the statistics, not the anecdotes. To me, your story seems to be casting more shade. Nothing you say even slightly critiques the fact that this is already proved to be a horrific pandemic, with corpses accumulating faster than standard procedures can handle. Or do you deny that?

        1. with corpses accumulating faster than standard procedures can handle

          Well, when a state governor forbids the city morgue from being emptied, that doesn’t imply that the system can’t handle it; that’s self-inflicted.

          1. +1000

    3. Because most of the data is still from China, and the Chinese data is artificially low.

      1. Unless you have some baseline for how many corpses there are in your average flu season, counting COVID-19 corpses is neither here nor there.

        People are not dropping dead left and right from this virus. 99% of people are getting through it fine. This was not worth crippling our economy over. Especially not to prolong the life of a minority of a minority of people that already have one foot in the grave. Putting millions out of work so grandma can have another month of dementia in the nursing home before she kicks the bucket?

        In what world is that a fair trade?

        1. Preaching to the choir, Gerade. I’m just trying to explain to the guy upthread of you why his numbers are coming out the way they are.

          In a perfect world: The vulnerable need to stay home. We’ll work out some way of supporting them. Wear a mask until they come up with a vaccine or some other cure. Everybody else, get back to work and doing what you were doing before.

          And, we really need to think about what we want to do with China going forward.

          All this enforced shutdown is doing is feeding the dictatorial element in people and making everyone way more dependent on .Gov than they should be.

          Glad you got through your own Covid bout as well as you did. The serologic Ab test results nationwide will be interesting reading.

          1. Geraje, sorry. Small font on this tablet.

            1. Meant to reply to Lathrop, sorry.

        2. Guzba, thanks for flying your flag. We’re done.

          1. Thanks for making it clear you’re chicken little.

          2. Fuck off, Lathrop. I’m in the middle of the shit and I’ve panicked exactly zero times. And that navy ship that’s treated all of ten people is blocking my view, asshole.

            Panic merchant assholes like you should be dumped in the East River.

            1. Stay safe, stay healthy = if you’re in NYC Geraje

              Sounds pretty damned bad. Jersey is no picnic these days.

              1. Thanks. It’s really not that bad. Just fortunate to have a job that allows me to work remotely. But many people I know are not in the same position.

                Incidentally, it seems like 90% of the people I see out and about are the elderly.

                1. Same here…I am blessed to be able to work remotely in the People’s Republic of NJ.

    4. Well, as Italy’s experience shows, the healthcare system is actually acting as the primary vector for this illness. They’ve even admitted that the biggest mistake they made was not segregating the COVID patients from everyone else, because Italy’s centralized hospital system didn’t allow for such things. We have the same sort of system–giant centralized hospitals that acted as a vector through the rest of society. Considering up to half of those infected with COVID will never show any symptoms, you seem to believe that the reported cases are the only ones that matter.

      Secondly, as New York City’s data indicate, if you have one or more of the following underlying health issues, you’re going to be in for a bad time: Diabetes, Lung Disease, Cancer, Immunodeficiency, Heart Disease, Hypertension, Asthma, Kidney Disease, and GI/Liver Disease. Those who haven’t had these issues make up 1.4% of all the COVID-related deaths. There are currently 554 “conditions pending” cases as of this morning, but the trend clearly shows that it’s mostly the obese, the heavy smokers, and those with already compromised immune systems that are vulnerable, which would have been the case in any respiratory illness, especially one that targets the lungs.

      Furthermore, the number of available ventilators are irrelevant. Despite what Cuomo and others have said, there are plenty of vents. The problem is that the vast majority of people who have to go on a vent end up dying anyway–somewhere between 65-85%–likely due to the fact that many of those who do end up dying already have severe health issues that would have killed them in a year, anyway, as Fauci indicated.

      This was not worth killing the economy over, and if the state governors don’t acknowledge the fact that getting the number of cases down to zero before doing so is impossible, and that there will be spikes regardless, they’re going to need to “shelter-in-place” because people will be looking to put a cap in their ass.

      1. As long as you save just “one life,” destroying the lives of millions of others is worth it. You can’t reason with these panic merchants. Their projections were bullshit from the start and now that reality isn’t matching up to their hysteria they’re moving into the next phase of taking credit for preventing the nonsensical apocalyptic scenarios their models got wrong in the first place.

        It’s beyond infuriating.

      2. “…if you have one or more of the following underlying health issues, you’re going to be in for a bad time: Diabetes, Lung Disease, Cancer, Immunodeficiency, Heart Disease, Hypertension, Asthma, Kidney Disease, and GI/Liver Disease…”

        What percentage of the general population have one or more of those traits? Isn’t it close to most people? And how long ago did the person have to have the condition, for it to be a factor in causing a Covid-related death? I agree with your main point, which AIUI is: this is a disease of the very elderly and the otherwise sick. The vast, vast majority of healthy people are going to think this is a nasty chest bug, and that’s it. (Until we get better data on cardiac myopathy or neurological issues that some of these patients are also manifesting.)

        Killing the economy by quarantining the healthy is worse overall than the disease itself. Especially if the American public thinks the cure for our ills is to bring in Socialism in November.

        1. Oh, and your point on Italy not isolating patients with a suspected droplet-transmissible disease, is just so Latin. And darkly hilarious. I mean, what the fuck did they think was going to happen?

        2. Probably, although keep in mind that a lot of those particular issues are obesity-related, and the national rate is about 30-40%. The caveat here is that the number includes people in the lower range of that “obesity” BMI that are probably just what we would consider chunky, not actual fatasses who would be at far higher risk.

          I suspect that this illness is going to be shaving down the national obesity rate a bit when this is all said and done. I’ve mentioned before that my cousin has gone full-on doomer with this, and now I understand why after seeing the NYC data. Both he and his fiancée are grossly overweight, and she’s apparently asthmatic, on top of that (although I’ve never actually seen her use her inhaler and it’s never come up in the 7 years I’ve known her; I suspect that’s related to her obesity as well).

          1. I can see that. I’m middle aged, heavy, and have a history of asthma & allergies. Accordingly, I try to avoid people. Forcing everyone to do what I do is lunacy. Especially to the extent that CA is chasing people around who were paddleboarding off Malibu, and arresting them. The cops weren’t in PPE for this bug, incidentally.

            Right now, it’s not at all about protecting people from a virus.

            1. And as a high-risk case, sheltering is exactly the right thing for you to be doing until this shit burns out and/or we get some herd immunity built up. With 25-50% of people being asymptomatic, that should already be well underway. Whenever the state governments feel like lifting these collective restrictions, there’s inevitably going to be another spike, and the shit might actually hit the fan after that.

              Governments will feel the pressure to lock down again, but there will be a sizeable chunk of society by that time who will say, “Fuck that, let the fatties and old people die, I have bills to pay” and you’re going to start seeing civil conflict between those who want to lock down again and those who don’t.

              This is a big reason why I said in mid-March that they have a month, maybe two at the most, to calm things down and try and get things back to some semblance of normalcy. If they legitimately try to keep these orders in place through the summer, all bets are off. It’s going to get ugly, and a bunch of people dying on vents in the hospitals will seem like a better tradeoff by that point.

              1. Yup. Saw the signs back in late January—you tell me the last time Chinese villages were building abattis-barricades to keep people out of their villages—and locked in some HCQ, PPE, and enough stuff that I don’t have to leave too often. As well as dumping some weight, and money from stocks to debt. Though I am wondering when to hop back into equities.

                1. I can answer that = Though I am wondering when to hop back into equities.

                  Answer: Right now.

        3. In other words, it’s like pneumonia always was and is. Has there ever been a time before that attempts were made to suppress the transmission of viral pneumonia in the general population to mitigate its effects on the old and sick?

    5. How’s that compare to viral pneumonias generally?

    6. dude, they started testing en masse about 2 weeks ago. before that you had to be in intensive care and recently traveled to Wuhan for a bowl of bat soup to get a test. Even now they are mostly testing people with the worst symptoms.

    7. Stephen, there are two opposing factors. 1) There is a time lag between people being diagnosed and dying. 2) The availability of testing changes with time. So if testing lags behind at first (because cases grow faster than the availability of testing kits, lack of awareness etc), you will see the following progression: some diagnoses but not many deaths -> lots of diagnoses and a higher percentage of deaths (because you only diagnose people right before they die) -> huge numbers of diagnoses and a falling percentage of deaths (because you start counting people with mild symptoms who wouldn’t have previously qualified for testing and who aren’t dying either).

  18. So their estimated case:infection ratio is 1:2? I’d put that as the absolutely worst case scenario, with 1:5 being much more likely, based on the estimates out of wuhan.

  19. Likely to die? All of them,
    at some point

  20. Maya Maria Work from your house for two to six hrs every day, and start getting averaging 1000-3000 bucks at the end of every week. Read more information here>… Details Here

    1. I work from my house every day now, thanks to Gavin Newsom.

  21. Splitting the difference between 100,000 and 240,000, around 170,000 might die of Covid-19. This would be around 6% of expected deaths in the U.S. in 2020. Around 329,300,000 Americans will survive the pandemic.

    1. Very frightening it’s time to panic. Seriously though I was at the store, and because our dumbass governor said wear a face mask all these people are wearing makeshift masks from scarfs, bandanas, or homemade. And fidgeting with them because they aren’t comfortable and don’t fit right. Which is basically useless if you really think it’s airborne.

      So bad flu season, but let’s throw innocent people out of work.

      1. I have a set of really shitty Chinese-made Home Depot filter masks leftover from some project a few years back. They were fine in the ziploc I’d left them in. But it doesn’t fit well at all, certainly not well enough to filter stuff I breathe. The beard doesn’t help.

        I figure though it’s a decent enough droplet barrier for stuff I might cough out at people.

      2. it’s definitely airborne, with so many people getting sick so fast. but adjusting your mask just makes you touch your face more and defeats the purpose.

    2. the point is without mitigation the number could be 1-2 M. maybe only 1/2 M. the problem is that is 500k or more people dying in the hallways of your local hospital on a mat on the floor drowing in their own fluids.

      even jared kushner might be drawn to concern.

      ps: wait till it its small red towns with 2 vents for the entire county.

      1. None of that shit is going to happen, “mitigation” or not.

      2. So you think it’s okay to put 10’s of millions of people out of work and possibly homeless to save 0.3% of the population?

        Fuck off, slaver.

  22. heh hero’s , how many of your aren’t practicing mitigaiton.

    i bet every one of you is hunkered down in his basement triple-plyed in saran wrap demanding your meals be lowered down in a basket.

    1. Not sure why you think that. I’ve gone out every day to do my “nessecary” trips, because things come up that we need to get. I’ve had to work from home, but that was imposed by my employer; otherwise I’d continue going to the office. I don’t own a bandanna and all the masks got bought up by hoarders so that’s not an option, not have I been wearing plastic gloves everywhere.

      People who actually think this shit is going to mitigate their risk are deluding themselves. Just wait until the second order effects of shutting down the economy start coming in to play; bet they are going to be astounded when the grocery supply chain starts to break down because the workforce has been nerfed by stay-at-home snitches and panic mongers.

      1. did you read the post’s here? people complaining they are inconvenienced cause only .3% die.

        simple math. Flu: 35M infections and 40,000 deaths on average. Flu is a good guide to CV19. Only diff, is CV19 spreads faster to more people and kills more. it wouldn’t take much imagination to see CV 19 killing a million.

        now if the nightly news starts off with images of persons laying on the floor of your local ER and bodies in Reefers outside what exactly do you think that will do to the retail environment?

        but heh you guys got a break -even on death vs. jobs? let me know what it is. i think your local mayorship may be up for re-election in Nov. You can put your numbers in front of your neighbors.

        1. it wouldn’t take much imagination to see CV 19 killing a million.

          It actually takes a lot of imagination, given who’s actually dying. You know who makes up 25% of those deaths in NYC? People in nursing homes. You know who makes up 98.5% of all the deaths? People with severe underlying medical conditions. I guess if you’re in a nursing home or an overweight fatass, you should be worried. The rest of us? Not so much.

          now if the nightly news starts off with images of persons laying on the floor of your local ER and bodies in Reefers outside what exactly do you think that will do to the retail environment?

          What do you think it will do if governments try to force people to shelter-in-place into the summer? Remember, Fauci has said that he doesn’t want the states to lift these restrictions until we’re down to “no new cases and no deaths.” He, and you, are idiots if you actually think we’re going to ever get there without locking everyone in their house for the next 18 months. And if you think an economic depression doesn’t have its own second-order effects that cause death, suffering, and hardship, you’re an even bigger idiot than I thought.

          I understand you’re a terrified bitch that’s afraid of a cold bug. There’s some of us who aren’t.

          1. Tim Koss, read this more than once, you fucking slaver:

            “I understand you’re a terrified bitch that’s afraid of a cold bug. There’s some of us who aren’t.”

            You terrified of getting sick?
            YOU go home and lock the door; none of us will bother you, you fucking lefty coward.

          2. somehow RR i think you are both. Just between you and I , am i wrong.

            you guys are why the libertarian movement never moved beyond the 2 Pauls. Because everyone in it is a selfish crackpot.

            All Hail Trump and Kushner: to the victor goes the spoils, right fellows?

            1. Yeah nuking the US economy for 20k dead Boomers is NOT selfish…right.

              600k+ American die every year from heart disease. There should be nothing done differently than we do for Flu season. That is until the media traitors and the Lefty politicians incited a panic that will less to millions of unemployed, wealth losses, and dead Americans who would have died.

          3. as much as i love pissing out your campfire let me answer with some reason.

            if say 1/4 are infected and we exit lock down with 3/4 uninfected, then we are right back where we started. but this time people are more confused, have less resources, trust everyone a little less.

            the thing will be mitigated when everyone who is going to get CV19 , gets its. however if this is done over 6 months to a year then hospitals will have their resources to manage deaths and you can , with less glee, offer up your euthanasia enthusiasm.

            1. I’m not sure this statement makes any sense, fellow.

        2. tim koss
          April.4.2020 at 7:57 pm
          “did you read the post’s here? people complaining they are inconvenienced cause only .3% die…”

          Yes, we have, including yours (and other’s) idiotic chicken little comments.
          Would you please compare and contrast your arm-waving death counts to what assholes like you are causing as a result of the economy being dismantled?

          1. Bet you would squeal like a pig when your lungs get filled up with fluid and you can’t breathe. You’re a pussy against the virus.

          2. well at least its a question with some basis in reason. I will counter, since its your argument. What is the expected death count from a ‘shelter in place ‘ order. Subtract all the customary deaths, what is the amount directly attributable to to ‘shelter in place’ order?

            Also will you’ve got your slide rule out, how many customary illness will now result in death because you can’t get admitted or medicine or doctors are in short supply?

            here’s is a statistic: 171 rural counties have no ICU beds.

            1. Your citations fell off.

    2. Some of us are ‘essential’, tim.

      Some of us bag groceries or ask if you want fries with that.

      Unlike you.

    3. tim koss
      April.4.2020 at 1:18 pm
      “heh hero’s , how many of your aren’t practicing mitigaiton.”

      What a stupid fucking question from a stupid fuck.
      Hint: I try to avoid catching colds, to, but unlike stupid fucks, I don’t suggest we shut down the economy out of fear.

  23. why do you suppose totalitarian regimes are locking down its citizens?

    china, russia, et. al.

    I presume they don’t have to worry about PR but do recognize the threat to their regime and economies.

    1. Because the world doesn’t want a nation oriented US. We are stealing from every country and corporation everyday Trump is in office. Those are their tax dollars we are paying – they’ll be damned if trump tries to make America anything but compliant dupes who don’t mind getting sodomized for every penny.

      So, they’re all in on it. Everyone.

    2. You.
      Are.
      Full.
      Of.
      Shit.

    3. tim koss
      April.4.2020 at 1:42 pm
      “why do you suppose totalitarian regimes are locking down itcitizens?
      china, russia, et. al…”

      Are you trying to prove how stupid you must be to become chicken little?

      1. i can’t even compliment you for a clever retort.

        just exactly why did putin lock down moscow or Xi , huan?

        if you have a thought i would love to hear it.

        1. tim koss
          April.4.2020 at 7:44 pm
          “i can’t even compliment you for a clever retort.
          just exactly why did putin lock down moscow or Xi , huan?
          if you have a thought i would love to hear it.”

          When did you stop beating your wife?
          Ask a stupid question, get a non-sensical reply.
          Once more: Your question is irrelevant; want an answer? Give it yourself.

          1. I thought this was ‘Reason’ Magazine. I can’t seem to find any in your responses.

            I was all set for you to correct me, instead i got …

  24. “In an accompanying editorial, University of Miami statistician Shigui Ruan observes, “Even though the fatality rate is low for younger people, it is very clear that any suggestion of COVID-19 being just like influenza is false: even for those aged 20–29 years, once infected with SARS-CoV-2, the mortality rate is 33 times higher than that from seasonal influenza.”

    As of March 26th, the deaths from flu were between 29 and 59 thousand–and flu season is still happening.

    The deaths from C19 were around 24,000 at that point.

    That is not “33X” higher.

    Currently, almost two weeks later, deaths from C19 are around 61,000. I don’t have current flu deaths, but that is STILL not “33X” higher.

    So whose ass was this number pulled from?

    1. Ruan’s Chinese government contacts.

      1. So you actually believe the fake Chicom numbers lmao

    2. The number refers to death rate, not total deaths. As in if you catch this, you are 33x’s more likely to die from it than if you catch the flu. This should be fairly obvious by reading the section you quoted again.

      Seasonal Flu mortality: 0.1%
      WuFlu Mortality: 3.3%
      That’s 33 times more likely.

      Now, if the models are right, and we can expect 50-80% of the population to catch it, that would indicate a total mortality in the US of… 4.45 to 8.71 Million over the next 18 months. Not that the models will reflect reality.

      1. The KungFlu mortality is based on known infected and deaths without counting or even trying to count all the minor cases that were never tested and turned away by hospitals and clinics.

        Of course the death rate is skewed too high.

        The government can get a 100% death rate if all they test are those about to die.

        1. And? Flu deaths are almost purely an estimate. We don’t test everyone for it. It may be high. Or it may not. Unless you test everyone with breathing problems you won’t have every coronavirus death either. You can take the numbers or leave them, but 96.6% recovery rate is completely in line with the “half of people will not have strong enough symptoms and 80% won’t need treatment at all” estimates.

          A 3.4% mortality is easily enough to create a tragedy here and abroad to satisfy those panicking, and still satisfy the head-in-the-sand folks who are screaming “almost everyone will get over it!” This doesn’t have to be either or. It can and appears to be heading for both.

          1. Its not a 3.4% death rate. Not even close for most Americans.

            The media knew this was not that bad and decided to incite a panic anyway. They are fucking traitors and have blood on their hands.

    3. The lancet released a correction for this article a week later that addressed this quote specifically. The number should have been 3, not 33. It now reads:

      “Even though the fatality rate is low for younger people, it is very clear that any suggestion of COVID-19 being just like influenza is false: even for those aged 20–29 years, once infected with SARS-CoV-2, the case fatality ratio is around three times higher than that of seasonal influenza in people aged 18–49 years.”

      https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30283-8/fulltext

  25. All these estimates of number of fatalities are WORTHLESS without a time frame. Is this in the next four weeks or three months or two years or ten years? People are stupid.

  26. This came out recently on the initial cases from Seattle WA.

    https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2004500?query=featured_coronavirus

    1. Looks like it really sucks if you’re diabetic and over 60.

      Also, WTF at including people with DNRs in the death toll, along with only giving 7 of them remdesivir, 1 lopinavir, and 1 (!) HCQ. I’m obviously not a doctor, but they only provided supportive ventilation and no other therapy on 11 patients who got sick, and are surprised some of them died? Can remdesivir not be given to diabetics? It just seems like you’d want to try antivirals or other therapy beyond sticking them on a ventilator and waiting for them to crash.

      1. Like I said the other day, the mortality rate of people who end up going on vents is so high, it’s clearly more about trying to give them some level of comfort before they expire rather than trying to actually save them.

      2. I will just put out what is there.

        https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/who-launches-global-megatrial-four-most-promising-coronavirus-treatments

        Just a news article as results are not in.

        So far as I know diabetes is not a specific contraindication for antiviral therapy. No agent again so far as I can find has been proven to have clinical benefit.

        The article I linked to above is just a case series report. It is not proof of anything.

        I would welcome more discussion on the topic.

        1. “I would welcome more discussion on the topic.”

          You’re kidding. Or you should be; typical passive-agressive bullshit.
          Is there a point buried there, or why should anyone click on the link?

        2. I had thought diabetes was a significant factor (no mention in what I’ve read whether it mattered Type 1 vs Type 2) in whether a patient lived or died. I’m just surprised remsidivir (I’m never going to spell that one right) wasn’t given to all of the patients, given it’s miraculous shift of fortune for the first US patient, also covered in NEJM. From steadily decreasing pulse Ox, down to mechanical ventilation, to getting remsdivir and getting off the vent two days later seems amazing to me.

          And with that, it’s weird that the non-DNR patients didn’t get it.

          1. It is a clinical report I first linked to, not a trial or demographic epidemiology study.

            It is just a way to report on what they experienced and learned in the first cases encountered.

            The second article is a news report about current trials underway for drug therapies.

    2. Basically confirms that this illness is primarily hammering people who are elderly and/or fatasses.

      1. There are a huge number of overweight people in the U.S. Many people with Type II diabetes that don’t know they have it.

        I don’t understand all the fuss about what the real mortality rates are. The social distancing is needed to prevent filling up all the hospital beds with Covid people so that people with the usual stuff (appendectomies, accidents, heart disease etc) can still get into the hospital. The total fatality rate may not be as high as expected, but the rate of contagion can cause the caseload to pile up very quickly.

        1. The social distancing is needed to prevent filling up all the hospital beds with Covid people so that people with the usual stuff (appendectomies, accidents, heart disease etc) can still get into the hospital.

          Wrong. The last place Covid people should be is in the same hospital population with other people. That’s the mistake Italy made; they’ve admitted that’s what caused the numbers to skyrocket.

          Covid patients need to be segregated in completely different medical facilities so they don’t infect the rest of what is a vulnerable population. Most healthy people who get this will recover; half won’t even know they had it. The ones who do actually need to go to the hospital need to be cordoned off immediately and worked on by select healthcare workers so the rest of the medical staff don’t get infected themselves and pass that on to the other sick people.

          The social distancing isn’t doing shit other than ramping down deaths from car accidents.

          1. “The last place Covid people should be is in the same hospital population with other people. That’s the mistake Italy made; they’ve admitted that’s what caused the numbers to skyrocket.”

            This. Absent serious infectious ward controls, if you have a lot of Covid patients in your hospital, your other patients are going to catch it. As well as the people in your waiting rooms.

            Aside, the opposite is coming out too. A lot of patients with difficulty breathing, fever, oh, and obesity, diabetes, and things that otherwise would suggest CHF, are all having to be treated as potentially Covid patients. Which makes life rough for the hospital having to segregate them, burn through a shitload of PPE treating them, and going through a bunch of protocols that ultimately don’t apply to a guy they can stabilize by feeding Lasix.

            At least, that’s what my ER RN sister is telling me. Pain in the ass, I tell you. All of them are waiting for the COVID punch to hit.

            1. That’s the point. Social distancing is meant to control the spread.

              1. No its not. Its designed to destroy the economy.

                Otherwise the cough due to cold would not be spreading.

                1. Is this what your Chicom handlers have told you to parrot? Social distancing is the reason why the numbers in Italy are flattening. It’s basics science, which I know is difficult for Chicom shills to understand.

                  1. Hahahahahahahaha

                  2. This new unreason sock troll is funny. Its like they dont know how to read facts then post the Lefty Narrative.

            2. Hospitals cannot have two entrances?
              Hospitals cannot have certain areas that are Wuhanvirus only?

              Of course they can.

          2. “The last place Covid people should be is in the same hospital population with other people.”

            You’re so confused. Either this virus is nothing or its so serious that people with it should be thrown out of hospitals. You’re out of your element old man.

            “Most healthy people who get this will recover; ”

            What % of the US pop. is actually healthy you absolute retard?

          3. Totally yes, I agree = Covid patients need to be segregated in completely different medical facilities so they don’t infect the rest of what is a vulnerable population.

  27. Ontario announced and the media screamed, ‘100 000 people can die in April!’

    Sounds scary. But I would love to know how they arrived at this figure to provide context.

    No context and anecdotal stories are a toxic mix. Today I was out shopping for food and the wife called saying ‘I just saw a Tweet saying a 41 year-old man died. Come home!’

    Therein lies the problem (aside me hanging up on her). We’re throwing unreliable and volatile figures around that prey on people’s fear of the unknown.

    Add that they don’t even have a clue as to a firm date to end all these measures (which part of me thinks is partly theatre for the state to show people they’re doing something as they string us along) and we have ourselves a recipe for civil unrest.

    I get the feeling we’re the elephant in the cartoons that dances in fear when it sees a mouse.

    Look. I get this is serious. And that it can mutate and get worse.

    But someone is gonna have to start really looking at the unintended consequences to all this.

    1. “But someone is gonna have to start really looking at the unintended consequences to all this.”

      As has been mentioned, what is an obvious consequence can not be claimed as unintended.
      I live in CA; king Newsom is now formulating the rules for his subjects for the coming months.
      He’s entirely too stupid to understand the economic results, but that doesn’t release him from the personal freedom results.

      1. This is gonna be great for the 2020 Census.

        People will flee Commifornia and give those higher populations to other states.

  28. Speaking of models – here’s one attempting to project peak covid deaths, hospital bed, and ICU utilization by state.

    Certainly an ambitious project. IMO – they’re reasonably accurate for the next 4-6 weeks – roughly 85,000 deaths by May 15 – but then they seem to assume it just ends for reasons I can’t figure out

    1. Odd thing is they do make a very reasonable assumption re the attack rate of this first wave – By end the of the first wave of the epidemic, an estimated 97% of the population of the United States will still be susceptible to the disease, so avoiding reintroduction of COVID-19 through mass screening, contact tracing, and quarantine will be essential to avoid a second wave.

      Good to leave a lot of things still up in the air. We may learn. We may improve our skills at treating this. Stuff may well happen. But 97% of the iceberg is still a lot to leave unexplored considering that roughly 97% of commenters here are clearly incapable of any coherent thought whatsoever. Are they/you outliers compared to actual Americans?

      1. JFree
        April.4.2020 at 10:52 pm
        “Odd thing is they do make a very reasonable assumption re the attack rate of this first wave – By end the of the first wave of the epidemic, an estimated 97% of the population of the United States will still be susceptible to the disease, so avoiding reintroduction of COVID-19 through mass screening, contact tracing, and quarantine will be essential to avoid a second wave.”
        No it’s not odd, you scumbag; they are guessing. And your bullshit about ‘second wave’ is unproven armwaving

        “Good to leave a lot of things still up in the air. We may learn. We may improve our skills at treating this. Stuff may well happen. But 97% of the iceberg is still a lot to leave unexplored considering that roughly 97% of commenters here are clearly incapable of any coherent thought whatsoever. Are they/you outliers compared to actual Americans?”
        Yeah, good to take over the economy based on bullshit assumptions from assholes like you.
        Stuff you PANIC!! flag up your ass, sideways and stick first.

      2. The bug can live in cats. Among other animal reservoirs.

        Is this a thing we’re just going to have to fade year in and year out?

        As I was trying to explain to someone a few days ago here, cold and flu season takes on a whole new meaning with a 2-3 percent fatality rate from catching the bug.

    2. Oh, good! JfuckingFree is here to wave his PANIC flag again.
      Got more data for the lefty assholes hoping for millions of deaths and trying to turn over the entire economy to the government:

      “Suicide rate and increased unemployment”
      […]
      “…The statistical model actually reveals a mean 1.5% increase in suicide rate, both sexes combined, for a 10% increase in unemployment rate. This association is clearer in men aged 25-49 years, for whom the rise in unemployment has been accompanied by a 2.6% increase in suicide rate…’
      https://presse.inserm.fr/en/suicide-rate-and-increased-unemployment/17424/

      Pretty sure you and your asshole compatriots ought to be patting each other on the back for several thousand suicides along with deaths from other causes.
      Proud of yourself, scumbag?

    3. Speaking of models – here’s one attempting to project peak covid deaths, hospital bed, and ICU utilization by state.

      Yeah, it’s someone’s guesses.

      1. All science is based on educated guesses. What’s your point?

    4. for my state they project a surplus of ICU beds of like 500.

      the problem is my state is 254 counties and 600 mi. wide.

      so in reality all the medical attention will be had in about 10-15 metro counties and the rest , say 200 will not have much if any ICU level treatment.

      since we refused medicaid expansion i am not even sure we would transport someone 50 miles from a rural county to a suburban hospital for treatment.

      at the end this will be a pandemic of 2 america’s ,urban/suburban blue and red rural.

      1. I assume you’re talking about TX. That’s the only one with 254 counties but the projections there are for a shortage (not surplus) of 300 ICU beds. I suspect it is actually much larger shortage than that because many ICU beds in the US (roughly 30%) are pediatric/neonatal and those are useless for the Covid affected population. Circus dwarves who get covid however are in good shape.

        The urban/suburban and town/rural problem is serious everywhere. Suburbs have always relied heavily on the urban pillhills for ICU type care and there’s some NIMBYism with that too. Also tend to be older population too – and you can bet they’ll bitch and moan like whiny welfare queens when the bills for all that start coming due end of this year.

        The whole small town and rural medical system has been being gutted for decades. They don’t have the volume for specialists and GPs are the red-headed stepchild of our system. In many cases, they had more doctors during the Depression than they do now. And they are really old unhealthy populations now.

        CO has the same rural probs as TX but are providing good county-level case data – esp the county breakout as per100k peeps. CO has two types of rural – ski country (Eagle, Pitkin, Gunnison, etc) which got hit very early by out-of-staters packing infection with their skis and are now disaster areas despite young populations – and the ag counties where cases are just now spreading but when they hit 5 cases and get the per100k breakout you rapidly see the problem there. Plus those ag counties almost all have their old folks home right next to the hospital/clinic in the county seat and share nursing staff. I suspect CO is not unusual in having lots of early outbreaks (30) in those residential/care facilities – and is like other states derelict in not testing/equipping medical workers well.

        1. unlike CO or say NY state, TX has no medicaid expansion meaining some 800K have no insurance. i wonder how they will be treated. of course first they won’t seek out care but when they finally do i will be an ambulance to the ER.

          Texas R party is toast after this. we were already a little purple. combine uninsured sick and dead with our government’s full backing of Obama care repeal, count us blue in 2002.

  29. Today’s deaths per worldometers: 1331. Which is bad, and higher than any previous day. But the models I’ve been looking at would have predicted 1800-2000 today. So stuff isn’t accelerating as fast as people fear.

    I think it’s due to maybe the fish meds working and critical patients still getting the care they need, vice Italy chucking 80 year olds in the hallway to die. I like the deaths staying low.

    Like global warming, the really serious consequences only come from feedback loops and exponential growth. If consequences are growing slower than that, hooray! Let’s get to the summer and see if this thing behaves according to the chemical warfare model I posted a week or so ago. Or like viral pneumonia typically operates during the summer.

    1. USA-
      Total Confirmed: 327,920
      New cases: 16,563
      Total Deaths: 9,326
      New Deaths: 874
      Total recovered: 16,700
      Active cases: 301,894
      Serious critical: 8,522
      Deaths per 1M population: 28
      Total tests: 1,726,457

      Spain has 266 deaths per 1M population.
      Italy has 263 deaths per 1M pop.
      (Worldometer)

      So out of ~2M tests, we have 328k positives and only 9,326 deaths?

      1. Italy was a wake up call. I don’t think many believe we will experience that level of death because as was said many times, Italy has a huge elderly population.

        For me, the only stat that has meaning, by which you libertarians will enthusiastically approve, is what are my chances of dying.

        I am at risk , in chemo, so i wonder alot , not if i get Covid, but when. Should i get sick next week, in urban Texas , I am okay treatment wise. But what about in a month? Will there be beds, masks, vents, gowns, doctors, nurses, drugs for symptoms?

        there is an article in today’s Politco about a cancer patient being denied care because of Covid. Not because he was too sick, but not sick enough. I myself had a tumor excision postponed. My R governor told the Board of Medicine to halt all elective surgeries. Well my tumor won’t kill me tomorrow, but a year from tommorrow because it wasn’t removed? Who knows. Ask the tumor. Ask the governor.

        This is where any stats available leads us to an ominous conclusion.

  30. The models of an ongoing event cant be trusted. Okay but how about climate models that attempt to look into the future, is there any way that they can be relied on at all?
    No…

  31. I think 2 lakh wil die because corona
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    mahakal status

    1. Shut up Hindu

      1. I’m not in the least bit surprised you’re a bigoted piece of shit.

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  34. as I know only the old people are likely to die .not all of them

  35. “These datasets included cases and deaths from a cohort of patients identified in China…”

    Garbage in, garbage out. From what we know if the Chinese government’s response [suppression] I would not trust any data coming from them.

  36. They call it a ‘cytokine storm’ when coronavirus hacks your own immune system into bumping you off.

    But they don’t call it a ‘statism storm’ when coronavirus hacks your sovereign overlords into similar for-your-own-good excess.

    Counted that way, the Chicomm numbers have got to be higher – like a lot higher.

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