A little knowledge is a dangerous thing. This maxim comes to mind when journalists who lack any legal background attempt to engage in complicated empirical studies of judicial decisions.
The latest headline from the New York Times is titled "Trump's 'Superstar' Appellate Judges Have Voted 133 to 12 in His Favor."
But the data suggests that in the 13 appellate courts, there is increasingly such a thing as a Trump judge. The president's appointees voted to allow his policies to take effect 133 times and voted against them only 12 times. . . .
The Times analyzed every judicial ruling on Mr. Trump's second-term agenda, from Jan. 20 to Dec. 31 of last year, or more than 500 orders issued across 900 cases. About half of rulings at the appellate level were in Mr. Trump's favor — better than his performance with the district courts, though worse than his record at the Supreme Court, where the rulings on his agenda have almost all been on a preliminary basis in response to emergency applications.
My immediate reaction concerned not the numerator, but the denominator. How many Trump circuit appointees were actually able rule on Trump cases? For starters, the authors do not define what it means to rule "in Mr. Trump's favor." Does that include a random APA challenge to a regulation passed in a prior administration? Or do they count a mundane Title VII case against a federal agency? The authors do not actually share their data set, which makes scrutinizing it impossible. At least academics share their data, which makes it possible to dissasemble the studies.
Let's assume the data set is limited to litigation against Trump executive actions. The majority of the anti-Trump litigation has been filed in the First Circuit, where until recently, there were zero Trump appointees. Then there is the D.C. Circuit, where Judges Katsas, Rao, and Walker are the only ones. I can think of a smattering of Fourth and Ninth Circuit opinions where Trump appointees wound up on the panels, but that is a small number.
If you read about three-quarters of the way down, you get to what might be called a selection bias in the data set:
Mr. Trump's success on appeal has also been driven by the influence that his appointees have wielded in specific judicial circuits, especially the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit. The court has jurisdiction over federal matters in the nation's capital, and its three Trump appointees have exercised outsized influence, repeatedly sitting on panels hearing key cases.
Combined, Judges Gregory G. Katsas, Neomi Rao, and Justin R. Walker voted 75 times in favor of the administration — slightly more than half of the pro-Trump votes from Mr. Trump's appointees logged by the Times analysis — and only three times against.
Again, the authors found a total of 133 total votes for Trump, and they attributed 75 to these three judges. Again, I was still perplexed by the denominator. Were these three judges really on that many panels with Trump-related cases?
If you keep reading further, the authors describe their methodology. You learn that the authors count separately a vote for an administrative stay, a stay pending appeal, and the merits:
When Mr. Trump's policies are temporarily blocked by district court judges, appeals courts can issue "administrative stays," temporary rulings that effectively reverse the lower court's orders and let contested policies take effect. Administrative stays are supposed to be temporary but can remain in place for weeks or even months. In many cases, they are replaced by a more lasting stay, known as a "stay pending appeal," that remains in place while the appellate court considers the case.
The Times analysis tracked both kinds of stays, as well as the final rulings that appellate courts made after considering arguments from both sides.
Mr. Trump's nominees sided with him consistently across all three kinds of rulings, voting in his favor 97 percent of the time on administrative stays, 88 percent of the time on stays pending appeal, and 100 percent of the time on final rulings.
So it seems the number of rulings is inflated triply: 75 rulings may break down to 20-something cases. Even on the Supreme Court, a vote to grant interim relief will usually predict the same vote on the merits.
Let's dig a bit deeper. In many of these cases, as I recall, the vote to grant the administrative stay was unanimous. In other cases, the justification to issue a stay pending appeal was made based on Supreme Court precedent. Indeed, Judge Rao dissented in Slaughter, arguing that the majority failed to follow Wilcox and Boyle. The Times also fails to mention that Judges Katsas and Rao disagreed concerning Judge Boasberg's contempt proceeding. Moreover, how many of these conservative votes were vindicated on appeal--especially by Justices Alito and Thomas, who were not Trump appointees. This limited analysis proves very, very little.
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