There Is More Than One COVID-19 Infection Fatality Rate
The wide range of estimates reflects real variations as well as methodological differences.
Epidemiology
Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer Wants President Donald Trump To Impose a Nationwide Face Mask Mandate
Whitmer's argument is short on facts and legal reasoning.
Daily COVID-19 Deaths in the U.S. Continue to Rise
Meanwhile, the case fatality rate is still falling.
COVID-19 Deaths Are Now Rising in the U.S., but Case Fatality Rate Continues To Fall
We are starting to see the fatal consequences of the recent infection surge.
As COVID-19 Cases Surge, Daily Deaths and the Case Fatality Rate Continue To Fall
Expanded testing, a younger mix of patients, and improved treatment help explain the seemingly contradictory trends.
COVID-19 Herd Immunity Is Much Closer Than Antibody Tests Suggest, Say 2 New Studies
If the findings are true, that's really great news.
Did COVID-19 Lockdowns Reach Back in Time to Affect Behavior Before They Were Imposed?
Trends in Massachusetts highlight the importance of voluntary changes in behavior.
Were COVID-19 Lockdowns Worth the Cost?
The evidence suggests Americans are right to wonder.
CDC Antibody Studies Confirm Huge Gap Between COVID-19 Infections and Known Cases
The difference implies that the virus is much less deadly than it looks, but it also makes contact tracing a daunting challenge.
As COVID-19 Infections Rise, Patients Are Getting Younger
The trend, which may reflect growing defiance of social distancing in some age groups, implies a lower death rate.
Daily COVID-19 Deaths in the U.S. Have Fallen Dramatically Since April
The downward trend continued after states began lifting their lockdowns.
What Do Recent COVID-19 Trends Tell Us About the Merits of Lockdowns?
New infections are down nationwide but rising in some places as people rebel against government-recommended precautions.
Did the Lockdowns Save Thousands of Lives? A Soho Forum Debate
Physician Marty Makary vs. epidemiologist Knut Wittkowski on whether "the lockdown saved hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of lives."
Were the Lockdowns a Mistake? A Soho Forum Debate
Physician Marty Makary vs. epidemiologist Knut Wittkowski on whether "the lockdown saved hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of lives."
Lockdown Supporters Embraced Wildly Wrong COVID-19 Projections That Fit Their Preconceptions
The episode illustrates the perils of confirmation bias on both sides of the debate about disease control measures.
Virus Transmission Estimates Provide More Evidence That COVID-19 Lockdowns Are Overrated
Two models suggest that broad restrictions had less impact on the epidemic than commonly thought.
As Lockdowns Are Lifted, Is the COVID-19 Reproductive Number Rising or Falling?
Two models generate strikingly different estimates.
A Middle Course Between COVID-19 Hopes and Fears
Control measures should be based on emerging evidence about the danger posed by the virus.
The CDC's New 'Best Estimate' Implies a COVID-19 Infection Fatality Rate Below 0.3%
That rate is much lower than the numbers used in the horrifying projections that shaped the government response to the epidemic.
How Much Credit Should Lockdowns Get for Reducing COVID-19 Transmission?
All of it, The New York Times assumes.
COVID-19 Herd Immunity Is 'Still Very Far Away'
Studies from several countries find low infection rates.
The CDC Is Still Botching the Coronavirus Testing Process
The disease control agency is a poster child for bureaucratic incompetence.
Do the Divergent Results of COVID-19 Antibody Studies Reflect Real Differences?
The infection fatality rate probably varies from one place to another.
What's the Herd Immunity Threshold for the COVID-19 Coronavirus?
Estimates range from 70 to 10 percent.
Coronavirus Has Infected 2.8 Percent of Hoosiers, Says New Study
The infection-fatality rate for COVID-19 in Indiana is 0.58 percent, nearly six times worse than seasonal flu.
Does Questioning Official COVID-19 Statistics Make This Doctor a 'Denialist'?
If you think much about the epidemic remains uncertain, The New York Times warns, you might be part of "the virus 'truther' movement."
Were the COVID-19 Lockdowns a Mistake?
Andrew I. Friedson says they flattened the curve. Lyman Stone disagrees.
8 Possible Reasons for the Huge International Differences in COVID-19 Deaths
For each plausible theory, there are puzzling counterexamples.
Seemingly Small Differences in the Accuracy of COVID-19 Antibody Tests Can Make a Big Practical Difference
When infection prevalence is low, a test with relatively low specificity can generate highly misleading results.
What 'Excess Deaths' Do and Don't Tell Us About COVID-19
While official death tolls clearly underestimate the epidemic's impact, total mortality numbers can be misleading.
Miami-Dade Antibody Tests Suggest Local COVID-19 Infections Exceed Confirmed Cases by a Factor of 16
The preliminary results imply an infection fatality rate of 0.2 percent, similar to estimates from two California studies.
Will Summer's Heat, Humidity, and Sunlight Help Us Slow COVID-19?
Lab testing and epidemiology suggest a dog days reprieve could happen.
California Coronavirus Antibody Studies Likely Wrong That 12.4 Million of New York City's 8.4 Million Residents Have Already Been Infected With the Virus
California and New York coronavirus infection rate estimates differ substantially.
What Explains the Difference Between Estimated COVID-19 Fatality Rates in New York and California?
Are the California numbers wildly off, or is New York different in important ways?
Critics Say a Pair of California Antibody Studies Contain Critical Statistical Errors That Produced Implausible Results
Too many false positives, nonrandom study population, and infection fatality rates out of whack with other data, critics claim.
More Evidence That Hydroxychloroquine Is Not a COVID-19 Silver Bullet
Trump: "We'll take a look at that. We're always willing to take a look."
Shouldn't COVID-19's Lethality Inform the Response to It?
Evidence that the virus is much less deadly than people feared weakens the case for maintaining lockdowns.
What Do 'Missing Deaths' Imply About the Impact of COVID-19?
A New York Times analysis has little bearing on the infection fatality rate or the number of life-years typically lost to the disease.
If COVID-19 Has a Low Infection Fatality Rate, How Many Will Die?
Rough calculations from two preliminary population screening studies in California.
L.A. County Antibody Tests Suggest the Fatality Rate for COVID-19 Is Much Lower Than People Feared
The tests indicate that the number of infections in the county is around 40 times as high as the number of confirmed cases.
A Harvard Plan To Use Massive COVID-19 Testing To Reopen the Economy
This proposal might work, but it's doubtful that our politicians and president are competent enough to pull it off.
COVID-19 Lethality Not Much Different Than Flu, Says New Study
Possible really good news from a population screening antibody test study in Santa Clara County, California
Antibody Tests in Colorado Highlight the Huge Gap Between Confirmed COVID-19 Cases and Total Infections
Clarifying the prevalence and lethality of the virus will require wide testing that goes beyond a single rural county.
Official COVID-19 Numbers Represent Just 6% of Total Infections, a New Analysis Suggests
"The true number of infected people worldwide may already have reached several tens of millions," two University of Gottingen researchers say.
Preliminary German Study Shows a COVID-19 Infection Fatality Rate of About 0.4 Percent
Good news from a population screening study
Mass Antibody Testing in This Rural Colorado County Sheds Light on COVID-19's Prevalence and Lethality
The number of Americans who have been infected by the virus, which seems to be much higher than the official tally suggests, is crucial to understanding how deadly it is.
At-Home Coronavirus Testing Kits Might Be the Key to Ending Our House Arrest
Developing them ought to be the top priority right now.
How the CDC and the FDA Wrecked the Economy
The failure to conduct early and wide testing left politicians ignorant of basic facts about the COVID-19 epidemic.
