Coronavirus

COVID-19 Deaths Are Now Rising in the U.S., but Case Fatality Rate Continues To Fall

We are starting to see the fatal consequences of the recent infection surge.

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Daily COVID-19 deaths in the United States, which have fallen dramatically since the spring and continued to drop even as newly identified cases surged, are now rising.  According to the Worldometer tally, which is based on reports from local health departments, COVID-19 deaths averaged 948 during the last three days, compared to 302 during the previous three days. That's a pretty alarming increase in a short time, and it will have a significant impact on the total death toll if it proves to be more than a temporary spike.

The seven-day average of daily deaths, which is a better indicator of trends, has increased less dramatically. According to data scientist Youyang Gu's calculations, which are based on death tallies from the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center, that number fell from 1,122 on May 25 to a low of 510 on July 4 and has since risen to 641, which is still more than 70 percent lower than the peak average of 2,238 on April 18. The New York Times database also indicates an increase in daily deaths this week, although the paper says "health experts cautioned that it was too early to predict a continuing trend from only a few days of data."

Gu, who has a good track record of predicting COVID-19 fatalities, is now projecting that daily deaths will rise to 774 in late August, then gradually fall to fewer than 500 by the end of October. He has increased his estimate of total deaths by October 1 from about 186,000—his projection at the beginning of this week—to about 192,000, rising above 200,000 by mid-October.

Because newly identified infections have more than tripled since Memorial Day, from fewer than 20,000 to more than 60,000 yesterday and the day before, daily deaths were bound to rise eventually. (According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the lag between laboratory confirmation and death is about two weeks.) Yet the nationwide crude case fatality rate—deaths as a share of confirmed cases—continues to fall. It is now 4.3 percent, down from more than 6 percent in mid-May. That trend likely reflects not only broader testing but also a younger mix of patients and improved treatment.

If the patient mix remains about the same, the case fatality rate could keep dropping even as daily deaths rise. But if the young and healthy people who seem to be driving the recent jump in cases pass the virus on to a lot of people who are more vulnerable to COVID-19, the case fatality rate could go up, as it did from late March to mid-May, when the patient mix was older and less healthy. Much will depend on precautions aimed at protecting people in high-risk groups.

The upward national trend in COVID-19 infections is largely due to dramatic increases in several Sunbelt states. On Wednesday, for example, California, Florida, and Texas, where a little more than a quarter of Americans live, accounted for more than two-fifths of newly confirmed cases.

"The current surge in coronavirus cases in the United States is being driven by states that were among the first to reopen their economies, decisions that epidemiologists warned could lead to a wave of infections," the Times says. But California's prominence in the recent wave of infections complicates that narrative.

California, which led the nation in imposing a lockdown and has been lifting it only gradually, nevertheless saw newly identified cases rise more than fivefold between Memorial Day and July 7, from 2,175 to 11,694. It recorded about 7,000 cases on Wednesday. "The state was once seen as a model for how to contain the virus," the Times says, "but experts blame the current surge on an inconsistent adoption of prevention strategies and a haphazard reopening process that gave people a false sense that they were in the clear."

Still, California does seem to be doing better in some respects than Texas and Florida, which have seen even bigger increases in newly identified cases and daily deaths since Memorial Day. The seven-day average of COVID-19 deaths in California rose from 70 on May 25 to 85 yesterday. During the same period, the average rose from 26 to 66 in Texas and from 36 to 56 in Florida.

Then again, Texas and Florida have lower case fatality rates: 1.3 percent and 1.7 percent, respectively, compared to 2.3 percent in California. That suggests patients are doing somewhat worse in California, especially since it has tested a larger share of its population than Texas or Florida has, which would tend to reduce the apparent fatality rate. And according to Gu's estimates, the COVID-19 reproductive number—the number of people infected by the average carrier—is slightly higher in California than in Texas or Florida.

What about states that never imposed stay-at-home orders? Since Memorial Day, daily new cases are up dramatically in Arkansas, Iowa, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming, but not in Nebraska. It sure looks like politicians' decrees play a smaller role in this pandemic than The New York Times thinks.

NEXT: Short Circuit: A Roundup of Recent Federal Court Decisions

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  1. Gary Johnson just tweeted out support for Jo Jorgensen’s inane pro-BLM tweet. Regardless of their alleged libertarian bona fides, it’s impossible to get behind anyone who lacks the discernment to see BLM for what it is: an unapologetic, unabashed, outspoken, and vocal Marxist organization that stands in direct opposition to every value libertarianism holds most dear.

    1. The Tweet in question: https://mobile.twitter.com/Jorgensen4POTUS/status/1281638042315489284

      Just had to throw in the Black Lives Matter hashtag, didn’t you Jorgensen? The pull of the Woke must be strong.

      The timeline is amusing reading. Plenty of, “Well goodbye, bigot!” from her followers to anyone indicating displeasure that she thought to include a Marxist group in her thought. Though what “actively anti-racist” has to do with Libertarianism, I couldn’t tell you either.

      1. Though, like I wrote about Kanye’s campaign a few days ago, any messaging that pulls proportionally more Biden voters away than Trump voters, is good messaging.

        Keep it up, Jo!

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      2. Holy shit, libertarianism is dead.
        The progressives have conquered it, just as they did the term “liberal” with FDR.
        So many jeffs and eunuchs, it’s hopeless

        1. “If racism being bad is obvious to you, someone saying to be anti-racist shouldn’t bother you”

          -Vermin Supreme

          1. Libertarians are nothing if they fail to punish wrong think

            1. That was Tulpa, not me.

              1. No one cares.

              2. It would be obvious if he wasnt so close to your other statements.

                1. Careful. Don’t want to get sued.

          2. Anti-clockwise means counterclockwise. The same thing, just reversed in direction. I guess that’s what anti-racist is… racism directed in the other direction.

            If I agree racism is bad, then it is bad in either direction. Either you discriminate on the basis of race or you do not!

        2. I remember being asked at a Wisconsin Libertarian Party convention how they could get more women into the party and/or movement.

          I told them, “Yeah, you don’t want that. There are biologically influenced sex differences in personality and temperament between men and women, and one of those differences is that women tend to value safety over freedom. The outliers are already here. Recruit more women, you’re going to find your entire movement watered down.”

          To my surprise, none of the women there were offended. Which is why I like libertarians. 🙂

          1. Cool to see you commenting here. Been following you on yt for several years.
            Also, your point is sad but true. While I do believe every citizen should have the right to vote, the results of the 19th amendment have ushered in a rapid abandonment of enlightenment principles in favor of big daddy government. It seems like a hardwired preference that few break out of and we all know where it progresses to

          2. How very Jordan Peterson of you! If you could come up with a thought of your own instead of spouting dogma that has nothing to do with libertarianism, you could say something intelligent like when it comes to government, freedom is much safer than any safety theater program the government comes up with.

            If you want to know the truth, women aren’t that involved in the libertarian party because of sexist stupidity like this and general disrespect for women. Stop being sexist pigs and you’ll see that woman are very interested in libertariansim. How do I know? Because I’m a women who sticks around despite all the sexist crap that the guys dish out and when I talk to women, they actually tell me that they’re interested but don’t want to deal with libertarian good old boys club.

            1. I’ve been reading this site for years, mostly for the comments section, and I have yet to see misogyny here–unless you mean that when an article includes a stock photo of a fat chick somebody notices it. The horror. The problem with too many women is that they define “sexist crap” as “failure to actively get my tits kissed.”

              I call total bullshit on the idea that women would be interested in libertarianism if only it didn’t involve a “good old boys club.” I don’t believe you know any women who actually say that, but even if you do it means they subordinate the principles of freedom to getting their tits kissed. Which proves Straughan’s point.

          3. I know a few that are endlessly pushing for mandatory masks, social distancing, and stay at home orders. However, they aren’t limiting interactions with their significant others, who just happen to live in different households, and they see nothing wrong with visiting and being visited by family members from other states.

      3. Jorgensen (who’s a decent but not compelling candidate) is the result of a small, insular political party who operates in an echo chamber. They can’t win and the electorate at large that actually matters aren’t interested in their nomination process, so they can yell “Hurrah for principle” and let someone like Vermin Supreme stick around, oblivious to the damage it does to the party’s image.

        I stopped reading her tweets about 2 weeks ago, but her usual lines were the boilerplate “cut tariffs, spending regulations, and more school choice” at a time when the nation was burning and the jacobins were taking over our culture. Defund the police? Silence on that topic, it seems.

        Again if you don’t care about winning, or at least making inroads in an election for the sake of building momentum for the future then you can just operate out of an echo chamber as much as you please. I’ll be voting for libertarians in CA, but unless I see more from her I’m not voting for her.

        1. Everything you say is true, but I’d rather vote for empty platitudes than any of the actively destructive candidates running for president.

    2. He stated to bake the cake, are you surprised?

    3. Most libertarians support the BLM movement. Trump cultists are not even remotely libertarian, so it’s no surprise they are opposed to BLM.

      1. Most libertarians support the BLM movement

        Cite?

        1. So now you’re a cultist too?

          1. That was Tulpa impersonating me.

            1. Actually, it was someone impersonating Tulpa that was impersonating you.

              Wrong agian!

              1. Oh I’m sure there’s quite a few layers of libel going on here.

                1. Oh we’re internet lawyering are we?

                  Gross.

                2. I look forward to Trump’s suit against Alec Baldwin.

                3. “libel”

                  Ah another several years worth of mockery fuel.

            2. And what if he identifies as “chemjeff radical individualist”?

              Why are you denying his lived experience?

              1. By impersonating me, he’s claiming to speak on my behalf. His experience can be whatever he wants it to be, but only for himself, not for anyone else.

                1. But you’re anonymous. Make sense.

                  1. It’s Jeff.

                    1. Obscure libertarian internet comment boards are serious business

                    2. Once again that’s the impersonator, not me.

                    3. “It’s my brand!!!”

                    4. Look I get it you don’t like me, but this impersonator is literally putting words in my mouth. You would not appreciate it if it was done to you. It is not right.

                    5. The sentiment is yours no matter who said it.

                    6. Is that your version of “fake but accurate”?

                    7. He’s not wrong.

                    8. “You would not appreciate it if it was done to you”

                      I wouldn’t care.

                      It’s an obscure corner of the internet. Get some god damned perspective.

                    9. You’re upset because he called you fat and you are. You’re hiding behind libel threats because you’re a fat pussy and you can’t shut him up.

                      We see right through you, even though it’s really far because you’re fat.

                    10. Yeah there’s definitely more than one of you doing the impersonating.

                      Tulpa likes to make people mad because it gives him joy to see other people angry and to stir up shit.

                      However the other impersonator, you, I think really is angry and is using this trick as a tool of expressing your hatred towards those whom you impersonate.

                      It’s an incredibly crappy thing to do either way, but at least in Tulpa’s case it is narcissism. In your case, it really is rage. Both of you need some counseling.

                    11. I wouldn’t care.

                      It’s an obscure corner of the internet. Get some god damned perspective.

                      I happen to appreciate this obscure corner of the internet and the discussions that occur here, at least when there are productive discussions to be had.

                    12. “Obscure libertarian internet comment boards are serious business”

                      So that WAS you then?

                    13. When you said “get some god damned perspective” he heard “double down on silly”

                    14. “Obscure libertarian internet comment boards are serious business”

                      So that WAS you then?

                      No, that wasn’t me posting that comment.

                    15. Accuses others of mental issies, has a temper tantrum over getting trolled on the internet and resorts to threatening lawsuits.

                      Sounds legit.

                    16. I didn’t say it was your comment I said it was you

                    17. I don’t agree that the Reason comment boards are “serious business”. They are just recreation after all.

                      But I do feel like I’ve found, at least a little bit, a sense of community here. It’s a place that broadly supports what I also support and I can occasionally have some interesting discussions. Like the one I had with soldiermedic earlier today. So I would hate to see this place go away. The trolls and the haters just disrupt all that and make everything worse.

                    18. Hey look everyone Jeff realizes he made a fool of himself and is trying to walk it back.

                    19. No sir Jeff we all saw what you did.

                    20. Sure whatever Mr. Rabbi.

                      I am getting the distinct impression that you are going to argue against everything I do no matter what.

                    21. No I’m going to point out that you’re desperately trying to walk back your pathetic behavior.

                      If you admitted it I certainly wouldn’t argue against that.

                    22. No, you are demanding a scalp for something that I didn’t do.

        2. Direct link to the dark recesses of that which he uses for a mind?

      2. “Most libertarians support the BLM movement.”
        Translation: “Everyone I know agrees with me!”

        Confirmation bias is the most pervasive of logical fallacies.

        1. “Most libertarians support the BLM movement.”
          I don’t.
          “Then you’re not a true Sco.. err… libertarian.”

      3. There’s a difference between supporting BLM and supporting some of the BLM talking points. I very strongly support the idea of police reform and greater accountability in police. And I do acknowledge the racial discrepancy between whites and blacks as far as police treatment. (However, this DOES NOT mean that it’s necessarily “racially motivated” or at least not as simple as “police are just racists.”)

        But I don’t support BLM. I’ve always been skeptical of them and lately I think they’ve shown their true colors, so to speak.

        1. “There’s a difference between supporting BLM and supporting some of the BLM talking points”
          WTF?
          Either you support the groups talking points or you do not support the group. There was no way to support the fascism of National Socialist German Workers’ Party without supporting their final soultion.
          If you support the BLM organization, you are a family hating marxist.

          1. BLM isn’t nearly as unified as 1930s German Nazis. Recently, there have been reports of various prominent BLM figures at state an d local levels withdrawing from the BLM organization, in some cases explicitly due to the “trained marxist” video and the “if we don’t get what we want, we’ll burn the system down…take that figuratively or literally” TV interview. It’s not so black and white as you make it…

      4. I’m a Trump supporter, and I’m quite libertarian, small L. Other than open borders (which I would consider only after the removal of the welfare state and birthright citizenship), I’m pretty much down the line libertarian. Far more so than any of the staff writers here, it would seem.

        There’s a lot of things I do not like about Trump, but compared to anyone the Democrats offer, it’s no contest. I’m not one to vote for a candidate who can’t win as a protest, only to let the likes of Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden get in there and screw things up even more. Trump is the lesser of two evils, and would be a better choice than Romney, McCain, Bush (either of them), or anyone the Democrats have nominated in recent memory.

        1. And please remember in November, a vote for the democrat party electors is a vote for the Vice Presidential candidate to be President.

          1. Absolutely. Biden’s not fit to be president now, medically, so he surely won’t be in four months.

      5. Explain how the BLM movement is remotely libertarian.

        1. They hate cops.

    4. So, if you were on JoJo’s PR team, what Tweet would you write concerning racism, given the current moment, that would be most consonant in your view with a libertarian viewpoint?

      1. Also, listen guys I’m fat and too selfish to hit a treadmill so protect me by wearing a mask. It’s the courteous thing for me to demand of you.

      2. #EndTheDrugWar

        We’ve been on this for years, how fucking hard is it to come up with that?

        1. That sound you hear, Jeff, is the mic dropping.

          1. So nothing about racism per se?

        2. I agree that would be a good message.
          Ending the drug war would get rid of a lot of the racial disparities in a lot of areas.

          Should that be all?

          1. I mean, can I at least get sone poutine?

            1. “can I at least get sone poutine”

              Props where it’s due Jeff’s not wrong about poutine.

          2. Our job is not to get rid of racial disparities. We cannot ensure equal outcomes, only equal opportunities. And libertarians are against the general concept of policing thought.

            All we want to do are remove the barriers that prevent people from succeeding. We acknowledge that some bad policies do have disproportionate impacts, like the Drug War or the Title IX policies on campus. But even if those government overreaches had a perfectly distributed demographic of victims they would still be wrong. The libertarian role in stemming systemic racism is to weaken the powers of the “system.” Deregulate and get out of the way.

            1. I agree entirely but I do want to ask about one thing:

              And libertarians are against the general concept of policing thought.

              What specifically do you mean by this?

              1. My attorney has advised me against speaking to you.

                1. What are you even talking about?

                  1. Crap, now I’ve got spoofer account too. I was hoping I’d stay too low profile.

                    1. You have, it was just a one off to mock Jeff for threatening lawsuits.

                      Of course he’s too stupid and un-selfaware to get it.

                    2. I didn’t threaten anyone with a lawsuit.

                    3. And so let it be known Tulpa and/or Impostor #2 will happily impersonate anyone, if it means going after one of his favorite targets.

                      They are not just trolling me, they are trolling everyone.

                    4. and THERE is that disinjeffuousness, where he DOES passive aggressively threaten you, then pathetically tries to deny it.

                    5. Was trolling all day yesterday you aspie reatard, gets ome fucking awareness of someone other than you

                    6. And there comes Tulpa’s favorite tactic, where *everything I do* is proof of ill will and perfidy, no matter what. Damned if I do, damned if I don’t, no matter what, for all time.

                    7. “chemjeff radical individualist
                      July.10.2020 at 8:32 pm
                      I didn’t threaten anyone with a lawsuit”

                      You should threaten him with libel suit too.

                    8. “libel”

                      We all know what you did there and now you look even worse denying it.

                    9. Little bitch won’t even stand behind his punk bitch threats.

                    10. Little bitch won’t even stand behind his punk bitch threats.

                      See there it is right there. I’m condemned for making a threat that I shouldn’t have made and didn’t make, and then I’m condemned for not standing behind a threat that I didn’t make but shouldn’t have made in the first place anyway. Damned if I do, damned if I don’t.

                    11. “See there it is right there. I’m condemned for making a threat”

                      You sure are you libel lawsuit threatening little bitch.

                      And now you’re doubly condemned for lying about it because you got mocked.

                      Bitch.

                    12. You passive aggressively threatened a lawsuit, then tried to insult us by pretending it wasn’t a threat.

                    13. I shouldn’t have made and didn’t make

                      Shouldn’t have or didn’t? You sound desperate.

                    14. He knows it was a threat and he’s just too pathetic to be man about it.

                    15. You passive aggressively threatened a lawsuit, then tried to insult us by pretending it wasn’t a threat.

                      Remember what I wrote earlier about people viewing reality through the lens of their own lived experiences? Well, this is an example of that. In your mind, I’m a dishonest hypocrite who used the word “libel” to threaten lawsuits against people in a sneaky and underhanded way. In my mind, I used the word “libel” as a descriptive term of what is occurring with regards to the impersonation and did not threaten any specific legal action at all. Who is right and who is wrong? I am telling you, honestly, that I did not threaten anything, passive-aggressively or not. You disagree and no force on this planet will change your mind. So what is “reality” in this case? Is it your version of events, or is it mine? Who can know for sure, right?

                      I think we should be respectful of other people’s points of view because we cannot know what they have been through. I think you are wrong, but I do not doubt the sincerity of your opinion. All I ask is that you respect my viewpoint on this matter.

                    16. chemjeff radical individualist
                      July.10.2020 at 8:59 pm
                      You passive aggressively threatened a lawsuit, then tried to insult us by pretending it wasn’t a threat.

                      Remember

                      I rememeber your threat. Fuck your walloexcuses.

                    17. It was an obvious threat. Veiled but obvious. Give it up Jeff this is embarassing.

                    18. I think Tulpa’s trash and even I can see you threatened him.

                    19. chemjeff radical individualist
                      July.10.2020 at 8:59 pm

                      I’m a dishonest hypocrite who used the word “libel” to threaten lawsuits

                      Yes you are.

                    20. Come off it Jeff A Veiled Threat is still a threat you threatened him

                    21. Hey Tulpa I think you left out some people to impersonate.

                    22. Hey Jeff you threatened a lawsuit like a little bitch and now you’re going to get mocked forever

            2. ANYWAY, A Thinking Mind, what did you specifically mean by this comment? Because I am genuinely interested.

              And libertarians are against the general concept of policing thought.

              I think “policing thought” could mean a couple of different things and I don’t want to put words in your mouth (unlike the trolls around here) so I would very much be interested in knowing your thoughts on that.

              1. Careful remember Jeff threatens lawsuits

                1. Oh I am aware.

                  1. Sigh….Time to stop posting comments here for a while.

                    1. The trolls ruin it for everyone.

                    2. Yes Jeff you do.

      3. To lift from Dan Greenberg, I’d Twit, “Racism? Feh! Who needs it?”

      4. Given the clear text of the 14th Amendment, there’s no place for racism of any kind in the USA, and race should be removed from all government applications and forms (for students, employees, etc.):

        “No State shall make or enforce any law which shall abridge the privileges or immunities of citizens of the United States; nor shall any State deprive any person of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law; nor deny to any person within its jurisdiction the equal protection of the laws.”

        1. I like that, actually.

          1. No one cares.

        2. Every time that there’s a box for race, I check every one.

          If more people did that, the data becomes unusable.

      5. The more Libertarian action would be to stay away from the hate filled, thought controlled Twitter, and all other social media.

    5. Incidentally, here’s another JoJo tweet of note.

      https://mobile.twitter.com/Jorgensen4POTUS/status/1279495410839703552

      True patriotism is encouraging people to make their own choices responsibly, not twisting a national holiday to fit a political agenda. #4thofJuly #4thofJuly2020

      And you’ll never guess to whom it was in response.

      1. Doesnt excuse her new tweet.

        You fight racism by not giving racism power. You see people for who the fuck they are. Like we see you for being fat.

        This isnt hard. 50 years ago many of all races thought so.

        Stop defending an ideology that has enforced more segregation, under the guise of voluntary victimhood, than Jim crow did.

        Again, sorry you fall for stupid movements because they facially sound good and you’re too tired to actually look even a tiny bit into them.

        Racism wont end from the end of a gun. Yet that is what you’re tacitly supporting through BLM. There is a reason they are asking to enforce demands instead of educating.

        1. You fight racism by not giving racism power.

          You mean, judge people as individuals? I can get behind that. Can you?

          Stop defending an ideology that has enforced more segregation, under the guise of voluntary victimhood, than Jim crow did.

          What ideology would that be?

          Racism wont end from the end of a gun. Yet that is what you’re tacitly supporting through BLM.

          I agree that racism won’t end via the barrel of a gun.
          And, I’ll be clear about what I support and what I do not support.
          I support police reform broadly speaking.
          I do not support everything that BLM stands for or every detailed position they have taken on every issue.
          I am appreciative of organizations like BLM that have brought attention to racial injustices in our society.

          Where do you stand, Jesse?

          1. I have done nothing but defend people as individuals. But this includes holding them accountable for choices they make such as joining violent marxists backed groups because they are intellectually lazy and useful idiots. You wish to excuse this action because you too are intellectually lazy and a useful idiot. Not every member of the Nazi party wanted to kill Jews, but they all empowered that party (many from just joining put of fear of being the next victim). That was their individual choice and needs to be pointed out.

            But you dont understand this responsibility concept.

            By the way it fucking sad how you play dumb. Go look at the modern college campuses and the demands for safe and segregated spaces. We have discussed this, you ignore it. The fact that BLM is asking to ignore all other races in their demands is literally an act of segregation. Critical theory, especially critical race theory, literally requires fighting and segregation by group attributes. I literally told you this earlier yet you’ve already ignored the fact.

            And, I’ll be clear about what I support and what I do not support.

            Be clear then. State how you are against the violence and damages they have committed under the banner of BLM. Admit cancel culture is dangerous. Because you arent clear on this. You tacitly condone everything these groups do. You’re not fooling anybody. In fact you often resort to similar arguments of assuming racism and forcing counter arguments to prove it is not. You’re a useful idiot.

            1. I have done nothing but defend people as individuals.

              Really? In all contexts, not just when it comes to issues of racism? If you sincerely do then that is welcome news.

              But this includes holding them accountable for choices they make such as joining violent marxists backed groups because they are intellectually lazy and useful idiots.

              Do you think everyone who attends BLM-sponsored protests has “joined BLM”? I think everyone who chooses to attend their protests should not be lumped in together. They all have their reasons for doing what they do.

              Going to a protest is not the same as endorsing everything that BLM stands for.

              Furthermore, do you think BLM should be judged by what three of their founders said years ago, or by what they are currently doing now? We had this discussion a little while ago as well.

              By judging BLM to be “Marxist” based on what three of their founders said years ago, is literally the same as judging America “racist” based on what Washington and Jefferson said (and did) years ago. That is not the right standard to take here.

              Not every member of the Nazi party wanted to kill Jews, but they all empowered that party (many from just joining put of fear of being the next victim). That was their individual choice and needs to be pointed out.

              Go ahead and point out why individuals decided to make the decisions that they actually made, but it is unfair and unjust to assign blame to everyone in an organization based on what only a few members did. That applies to BLM, Nazis, everyone else. I categorically reject the entire concept of collective guilt.

              The fact that BLM is asking to ignore all other races in their demands is literally an act of segregation.

              They actually aren’t, at least as far as I understand it. They’re saying that the black experience in this country deserves some special attention, not that the police murder of white people doesn’t matter at all. Have they advanced an explicitly segregated agenda?

              Critical theory, especially critical race theory, literally requires fighting and segregation by group attributes.

              Okay, and? Besides, we already had this discussion that Marxism is fundamentally in tension with critical race theory.

              State how you are against the violence and damages they have committed under the banner of BLM.

              I’m against the initiation of violence in contravention to the NAP by anyone, BLM or not.

              Admit cancel culture is dangerous.

              It is dangerous. It is also more complicated than the usual right-wing narrative though. There can be a tension between freedom of speech and freedom of association. If my associate says some noxious things, I may want to disassociate myself from him. That may be viewed as “canceling” him but it is also an exercise in my freedom of association. Furthermore I have *my own* freedom of speech to advocate for whatever I wish, including advocating that others also disassociate themselves from my former associate. It may not be wise to do so, but arguing against this freedom of speech is just a different type of “canceling”. It is a complicated issue that requires a bit of reflection to successfully navigate.

              In fact you often resort to similar arguments of assuming racism and forcing counter arguments to prove it is not.

              Actually, what I sometimes do is offer a hypothesis to explain a certain observation, and then others present arguments either in favor or in opposition to that hypothesis. It isn’t “assuming racism”, it is making an argument in favor of a hypothesis. It’s quite different.

              Now Jesse, perhaps you could be clear about a few things.

              Do you think BLM is “Marxist” based on their current actions and activities right now? If so, why?

              What do you think ought to be done to address issues of racial injustice, particularly as it pertains to policing?

              Do you think the GOP is taking the correct strategy here by emphasizing LAWNORDER and offering a reform bill that honestly does very little? What more do you think they could do, that you would support?

              1. Careful remember Jeff threatens lawsuits

              2. Under this logic, going to a Klan clambake for orphans isn’t endorsing everything they stand for either.

                1. That’s right, it isn’t.

              3. “Furthermore, do you think BLM should be judged by what three of their founders said years ago, or by what they are currently doing now?”

                If they have not disavowed the comments from three years ago, I have to conclude that it is still what they believe. Is that not reasonable?

    6. This.

      Unacceptable and surprising.

      BLM IS POISON.

    7. Dr. Jorgensen explicitly rejected the organization known as Black Lives Matter.

    8. well, not every value. libertarians tend to be opposed to agents of the state murdering people.

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  2. The numbers are still being goosed.
    Not only are any deceased who could’ve possibly had covid being counted as covid deaths, but they’re screwing with test numbers too.
    Test positive? How many people have you been in close contact with the last 5 days? 15?
    Ok. That’s 16 new cases of covid.
    Test positive once and want to double check with another test or two?
    Each result counts as a new case.
    Then there are numerous stories of people scheduling a test but not showing up, only to get a call a few days later telling them they’ve tested positive.
    And the positive test from the papaya from Africa.

    We had a perfect case study from the beginning: the cruise ship.
    Literally worst case scenario due to environment and demographics.
    But we ignore that now so we can all freak out about unreliable numbers without context

    1. They are also taking “covid deaths” that occurred several weeks ago and piling those into the “daily death” category.

      I could understand that when talking about the overall death toll in a single locality, especially when all hell as breaking loose in New York back in April, but adding these old deaths to the total and then touting the difference as a “daily change” and expanded reason for panic is just plain dishonest.

  3. Everyone panic! CNN stories involve covid recovery from someone without covid.

    https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/supposed-covid-victim-promoted-by-nbc-didnt-even-have-the-virus

    1. Before I looked ay your link, I thought this was about Chris Cuomo.

  4. However, the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services indicated that Friday’s death tally of 15 was made up of older deaths identified by comparing death certificate data with the state’s registry of laboratory-confirmed cases. These deaths might have occurred days or weeks ago. — Detroit News

    https://www.dropbox.com/s/9g2cgscv7bgg8iv/Weekly%20change%20in%20Covid-19%20Weekly%20Deaths.pdf?dl=0

    Still looking for that big swing upward.

  5. I think its rather obvious to anyone with a modicum of intelligence, and no agenda to make things look like doomsday to understand why cases are going up in CA, TX, AZ, GA more than they are in say NY, NJ

    NY and NJ have already had a lot more cases per capita (detected as well as undetected) and so its somewhat slightly harder to spread like wildfire there.

    On Jun 1
    CA had about 300 per 100k detected
    TX had about 232 per 100k detected
    AZ had about 275 per 100k detected
    GA had about 451 per 100k detected
    FL had about 207 per 100k detected

    NY had 2010 per 100k detected
    NJ had 1838 per 100k detected

    Incidentally as Iowa was mentioned and I’m familiar with it.
    Iowa is doing about 35-40% more tests daily than they were back on June 01. The positive cases / tests done rate is hovering between 6 and 8% and the age like everywhere else has been decreasing and staff at LTC facilities have gotten very good at keeping the bug out (number of facilities with an active infection is down)

    Of course all this is neither here nor there because we’re all gonna get this (more or less) and there ain’t a damn thing anybody can do to stop it, at least not if people want to be able to keep eating.

    1. That would actually be pretty hilarious if NY/NJ had achieved herd immunity from its population getting sick this spring, and attributed it to mask-wearing instead.

      1. It’s probably not from herd immunity, but to me it appears that some people are much more susceptible to the WuFlu than others, and it hit much of the low-hanging fruit in NY/NJ this spring, which is what it’s doing now in other parts of the country.

      2. That’s exactly what has happened. It’s burned through the NE, just like it burned through Sweden and Italy.

  6. The real question is this: Would different edicts, lock downs, restrictions and other actions by politicians have made a significant difference in the long run, or just moved some numbers around? It is a universal political delusion, “If I were in charge, and I had done this or that, I would have managed and controlled this situation.”

    Political leaders are like beginning math students, who think they can solve a big system of equations with multiple variables just using simple arithmetic. Pandemics cannot be socially engineered away any more than poverty or racism.

    Of course New Zealand and Uruguay did well. If you look at all the factors, it is easy to see why, but we cannot just replicate that. NYC and Los Angeles are not Montevideo. A huge number of deaths in Los Angeles were due to low income workers at rest homes who worked in multiple homes.

    1. Would different edicts, lock downs, restrictions and other actions by politicians have made a significant difference in the long run, or just moved some numbers around?
      If you accept that it was endemic in mid-March, and possibly was endemic as early as January, then all that’s happened is they just moved numbers around.
      There is some value of course in slowing things down, particularly early when we know less, but that window is now past now that we know more.

      NZ has only temporarily appeared to have prevented infections. They can only do so for as long as they keep their policies enacted and even then it will still get in because when tourists bring their “I tested clean” certificate to customs there will still be false negatives that make it through.

      1. Epidemiologists are now considering that the virus may have first emerged as early as October, or even mid-September. Apparently, two people in Washington state who had COVID symptoms in December later tested positive for antibodies. The state’s first official case was diagnosed in mid-January.

        Sewage samples in Italy and Spain taken on December 18 and in mid-January, respectively, contained traces of the virus’s genetic code. That could mean the virus was circulating in those countries 40 to 60 days before their first confirmed cases were diagnosed.

        Moving numbers around was important in the beginning, not only because of what we didn’t know, but because of what was just being discovered in mid March–that China had had its wicked way, from mid Jan thru end of Feb with several countries’ medical warehouses. The US was kind of like, “uh… we’re trying to beef up the national strategic stockpile, but we can’t find a single ventilator or mask for sale in the whole country.” During that 6 week period, China (the world’s largest manufacturer and exporter of masks) imported 2.02 billion of them.

        The CCP used private proxies (companies and citizens) to make the purchases, so no one would notice. Australian media started reporting on it at the end of March, after asthmatics began to complain they couldn’t find masks to purchase during the brushfires. I mentioned this to a friend of mine there, he said he personally witnessed a group of Chinese people filling their cart from the shelves at his local hardware store and asking staff if they had more in the back.

        At the same time, China put out a notice in the press that they’d detected counterfeit and defective medical supplies set to be exported, and were upping inspections and tightening restrictions, so there would be delays in shipping.

        I submit that it was mid March when western governments discovered this, because that was 1) when they started locking down, and 2) when they started recruiting clothing, car and pillow manufacturers to make masks, respirators, PPE and ventilators, and asking distilleries and breweries to produce hospital-grade disinfectant and hand sanitizer.

        When the story broke in late March, early April (first in Australia) that China had cleaned us all out of masks (among other things), that was when all our governments changed their stance on masks, and began instructing people how to make their own. Because 1) now the public would know masks DO actually help (otherwise China wouldn’t have purchased all of ours), 2) they didn’t want people to panic when they couldn’t find any to purchase, or hoard what masks they could find and deprive health workers of them, and 3) they realized China had lied like rugs about the severity and transmissibility of the virus.

        This is literally why I did not hold the lockdowns against them. We (Australia, the UK, the US, Canada, and others) realized this was possibly really really bad, and at the same time, we had none of the shit we’d need to deal with it.

        But now? As a rule, Canada’s urban hospitals operate at about 98% capacity. We’ve been at 85% or so since lockdown, and every day we get COVID updates that needlessly scare the public. We’ve restocked our medical supplies and equipment. We have beds to spare. We know more about this virus. Let’s get on with it, ffs.

        1. Moving numbers around was important in the beginning, not only because of what we didn’t know, but because of what was just being discovered in mid March–that China had had its wicked way, from mid Jan thru end of Feb with several countries’ medical warehouses. The US was kind of like, “uh… we’re trying to beef up the national strategic stockpile, but we can’t find a single ventilator or mask for sale in the whole country.” During that 6 week period, China (the world’s largest manufacturer and exporter of masks) imported 2.02 billion of them.

          The CCP used private proxies (companies and citizens) to make the purchases, so no one would notice. Australian media started reporting on it at the end of March, after asthmatics began to complain they couldn’t find masks to purchase during the brushfires. I mentioned this to a friend of mine there, he said he personally witnessed a group of Chinese people filling their cart from the shelves at his local hardware store and asking staff if they had more in the back.

          I’m sorry but this sounds like crazy conspiracy nonsense. Is there any hard evidence for any of these claims?

          1. South Korea was definitely cleaned out of masks – by Chinese operators – in January and early Feb. The difference is – they had both smart public health system and a public-health educated public that immediately started trying to hoard masks with the first cases. So they saw the lines, realized the bottleneck, and immediately started fixing the problem (by banning exports of more than 10% of production, banning bulk sales to all ‘new/unapproved purchasers’, and govt buying a threshhold of total production to distribute in small subsidized (near-free) volume through post offices. That was done in three days and within one week Koreans were wearing masks.

            In effect, those Chinese purchasers did not create a problem for Korea. They made a problem visible and because the Koreans were competent and paying attention, they fixed it. We OTOH prefer to fucking whine – freaking forever.

        2. For some time I’ve been thinking it was endemic and unstoppable even before China first knew they had something.

        3. I submit that it was mid March when western governments discovered this,

          That may be but it is irrelevant. When China locked down (from Jan 22 to Jan 29), then actions (and very obvious and completely confirmable by all sources including eg satellite images of traffic) speak truth. Countries that took the virus seriously – by at least the public health authorities – from that moment have done OK. Countries that dicked around and pretended nothing was happening or did something symbolic for the PR value but then stopped until March are – stupid as fuck and are failing. It really didn’t matter much whether China lied in Dec and early Jan. Or that they either lied or were overwhelmed re their stats in early Feb. Those are all just words.

          Actions were what mattered from that point on. Actions were what the US (and others) failed to take. Yes I do think there is some commonality among all Western governments to this. But it wasn’t that they were lied to by those evil Chinese. It was that we are arrogant as hell (we don’t eat bats, we are healthy and rich, we got great rankings just a couple months ago for our ‘pandemic preparedness’). Asian countries around China did quite well – and they were even more lied to or in the dark about what was happening. Because they took it seriously from that moment.

          1. Western governments probably thought it was going to be something just like SARS or MERS, which only affected “those people” and didn’t need any special precautions because “it could never happen here”.

            1. When you’re dumb as a hammer racism is your nail

            2. I think that’s exactly right. And that is even more of a problem here for the US because American exceptionalism is deeply ingrained in both parties – and apparently in the public health bureaucracy as well. There is nothing we can learn from China. There is nothing we can learn from Singapore, Taiwan, South Korea, Thailand, Japan, Vietnam. We are simply too special and unique and superior. So we didn’t pay attention to what China did and we didn’t pay attention to what all those surrounding countries did either. No knowledge gained about the virus or about the success stories.

              1. “JFree
                July.10.2020 at 9:37 pm
                I think that’s exactly right”

                called it.

              2. What I really hate the most about the current moment, besides all the casual racism being flung around everywhere by all sides, is this idiotic idea that America can go it alone, that we don’t need anyone else on the planet in order to be a great country.

          2. “stupid as fuck and are failing.”

            Ah yes Jfree, the moron who chracterizes developing herd immunity and falling death rates as “failing.”

            You were wrong. Somehow you managed to find a way to shit your pants even harder

        4. “ We know more about this virus.”

          I don’t know what you think you know, but I know that nobody knows anything.

          Mask don’t work/mask do work/mask are bad/mask are good/mask are stupid/mask make sense/social distancing works/social distancing is foolish/they are goosing the numbers/the numbers don’t lie/the virus only kills old people/the virus kills young people…on and on and on…..

          But here’s what I can surmise:

          Using an epidemic for political purposes is down right evil.

          If we can’t handle a virus inflicting the current death rate( whatever that number is), we are certainly doomed if anything, even slightly more deadly, comes around.

        5. The Deaths are up the last couple days because the numbers were artificially low over the holiday weekend. Numbers are always low on the weekend..then they rise during the week, but the holiday weekend was a pretty big undercount. The daily average will still work out to 500-600 hundred when factored over the week.

        6. “Epidemiologists are now considering that the virus may have first emerged as early as October, or even mid-September.”

          I really hope you’re right. My stepmom and daughter were in Italy in mid to late September, and my stepmom had bad pneumonia in early November, was hospitalized, but no ventilator. It would mean a rather long incubation period, but not outside of the realm of possibility. If this is the case, my daughters and I have all probably caught it but remained asymptomatic.

      2. “They can only do so for as long as they keep their policies enacted and even then it will still get in because when tourists bring their “I tested clean” certificate to customs there will still be false negatives that make it through.”

        Not to mention negative results that are not valid anymore. You could catch the virus on the way home from the test, and be infected before you even see the “negative” result.

    2. Tiny countries with tiny populations. Ta-dah!

      1. Tiny countries with tiny populations.

        And tiny people with tiny eyes.

    3. New Zealand “did well” be restricting tourism and visitors. Now they have no population immunity so they have to keep restricting tourism and visitors.

      Sweden took the right approach all along.

      1. Well, it depends on whether we’ll have a vaccine before next winter. Fauci seems to think we will, but given his long and rich history of being wrong about stuff, that probably means we won’t. Given the uncertainties about a vaccine, I agree that herd immunity involving the relatively young and healthy is the way to go. Without a vaccine, countries like NZ and Australia will eventually get hit hard. There’s really no avoiding it barring permanent travel restrictions.

  7. Doesn’t anyone remember that it is a virus? It will continue infecting people until it doesn’t because it mutates or enough people have had it. Until then, trying to stop it from spreading is much like Caligula trying to hold back the ocean. Can we stop with the “virus porn” and get on with figuring out how to live productive lives?

    1. This is absolutely the right answer, but no one wants to admit it.

      Frankly, the problem isn’t that we are being “reckless” or “uncaring” or whatever which is causing it to spread. The problem is our overreaction. It’s like no one has ever seen a contagious illness before or seen someone die and therefore a viral outbreak that is tragic but still relatively mundane on a societal level has become into THE WORST CRISIS EVER!

      No one has any perspective at all, especially the media.

    2. I was going to comment about this.

      It’s a virus. IT’S OUT THERE.

      Public officials who say ‘we are doing everything to combat the virus’ are fools. What are you combatting?

      Until they start to adjust their thinking, shake themselves of relying on theatrical measures like masks, and accept the virus is here, we’re in for some really stupid measures by low IQ morons in positions of power.

  8. At worldometer look at the “daily new cases” graph for the states that are seeing the most new deaths and new cases. New cases were going up but shot up like a rocket after June 16h. That includes CA, which reopened later. Floyd died on May 25th, and protests followed a few days later. The timeline for the incubation period (and when it ended) seems clear to me.

    CA is arguably in WORSE shape than FL and CA. CA actually saw more daily new cases in May than FL pr TX in May. Two weeks ago they saw 4 days of 80 plus daily deaths, and one else matched that. They just had 3 days of 100 plus deaths. In early May the state looked like they should maybe start thinking about reopening schools and in the matter of 6 weeks they caught up to FL and TX.

    The protesters in big states spread the disease to Latino workers when they hit Starbucks and Mcdonalds. And the workers spread it to their families. What else explains it? Nevada reopened their casino a month ago, why aren’t they a hotspot?

    1. yeah, the spike following the protests is obvious, but apparently off limits to report

  9. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the lag between laboratory confirmation and death is about two weeks.

    I wouldn’t be surprised if this lag time changes very dramatically. Mar/April really were characterized by us infecting a whole bunch of old weak people. The time between them getting ill enough to be seen by a doctor v ill enough to be seen by a mortician is gonna be short. Not so now that those getting the disease are younger and healthier. There will likely be more of a lag time between getting ill and getting ill enough to see a doctor – and much more lag time between the various stages in hospital. And obviously the end result is a lower death rate than the over-80’s anyway.

    The serious cases are more likely to clog up the medical system for the next couple of months than they are to die quickly and free up the medical system to treat the next patient. Which means fewer specific covid19 deaths – but watch the overall excess mortality here.

  10. I tried to email Jacob Sullum, but I received an automatic reply saying he was out of the office until July 20th. I am posting my letter here to see what all you readers think. Let me know if you have an opinion. Thanks.

    Hi Jacob,
    I’m a fairly long-term (8-10 year) reader of reason.com and I just read your article about U.S. COVID deaths. I’m not sure where Worldmeters Tally gets their data, but I always go to the CDC NCHS Provisional Death Counts for COVID-19 page; https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
    It is a bit complex, but it gives the most accurate numbers on “all deaths involving COVID-19”, which is probably an overestimate just by the nature of the categorization which should be obvious by the term “involving”. In my understanding it is where the medical data supports a death that has been somehow affected by COVID-19 (i.e. just not a positive test). Let me know if you think I’m wrong in that assumption. I have been following this page for over 2 months and there is a stark reduction in COVID-19 deaths since the peaks in April. I take a screenshot each weekly update so I can compare the lagging additions/subtractions to the most recent weekly counts. Occasionally there are some reductions in the counts, but overall they always go up but never over about 30% of the original reported number for a specific week. Since this is Dr. Fauci’s and Dr. Redfield’s working arena I trust this over all others. Even Dr. Birks has stated that these numbers may be overestimated by any number of reporting inaccuracies that probably cannot be helped (at this point). If you look up the overall death rate for influenza in 2017-2018 the original estimates during the epidemic were slightly over 80,000 and the final number that was accepted by the CDC/NCHS was 61,000. My point being that they always overestimate and then as death data is collated more accurately the number goes down. Anyway, you may want to take a look at the link above and see what you think. My main point is that I heartily disagree with the assumption that COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. are now rising. I believe they are rising in certain geographic ares, but overall the number of COVID-19 deaths have been consistently falling since April. Again, let me know what you think in case I have missed something. Thanks.

    1. Can’t compare the 2017/8 (or any) flu revision to any expected covid revision. The initial flu estimate/projection from CDC (the 80k for 2017/2018) for all flu seasons is purely a modeled number. CDC does NOT collect death data on an ongoing basis during flu season specifically for that purpose. They collect influenza virus samples and outcomes for those samples – to prepare the vaccine for the upcoming season and assess whether the vaccine for the current season is configured right for the viruses that are actually circulating.

      The 60k final count is the CDC best estimate based on the total mortality and causality when they finally receive all death data for the year at the end of each. That 60k is more like the current covid death data – except that covid data is being collected more real-time than just end-of-year like flu. Because it is a current pandemic where epidemiological data is still very unknown (unlike flu) so they need that real-time death data.

      There may be revisions and adjustments as all mortality statistics come in and are looked at. But that will be for the history books and will involve seeing whether and how much overall mortality rates rise – this year and in future years. That adjustment will NOT be some major thing like you are assuming it must be. The CDC currently is tracking overall mortality compared to what they would expect

      1. “The CDC currently is tracking overall mortality compared to what they would expect.”

        The lockdowns themselves come with a death toll, so it’s misleading to look at the excess death rate and attribute it to the disease itself. There was a trauma surgeon in northern California who reported they were seeing a year’s worth of suicide attempts in four weeks, a 13-fold increase, and that suicides were outpacing COVID deaths. This is by no means surprising. There’s a known relationship between unemployment and suicide, but this was more than just causing a fifth of the population to lose their jobs. This was a huge amount of stress, and at the same time all of the mechanisms people use to deal with stress constructively were also forbidden. Therapists closed up shop, socializing with friends in person forbidden, can’t do your hobbies, can’t do much of anything but sit at home and stew. Stress is a killer, and stress with all of the coping mechanisms blocked is worse.

        1. The lockdowns themselves come with a death toll, so it’s misleading to look at the excess death rate and attribute it to the disease itself.

          That’s not what anyone’s doing. They are collecting data on mortality. Period. If you want to drill down via subcategories of mortality (eg suicide or auto accident or somesuch), then you can look at those – by state, by specific lockdown periods, by age, etc – and see what actually happened. To actually test a hypothesis that lockdown itself was associated with increased suicide.

          That said – I’ve never known a single politicized person – whose overriding goal is to support a pre-existing narrative – to ever really do that. Instead, they will do that if and only if the data fully supports their narrative. Otherwise, they’ll torture the data a bit into supporting their narrative. Or if that doesn’t work, to dismiss the data entirely and create a ‘conspiracy’ around it – in order to keep with the pre-existing narrative.

  11. The other thing Ito add is a link to an article on Dr. Scott Atlas of Stanford (former chief of neuroradiology at Stanford University Medical Center and a senior fellow at Stanford’s Hoover Institution) put into perspective the lack of hospital beds we are now seeing. Here is the link:
    https://dailycaller.com/2020/07/06/stanford-scott-atlas-coronavirus-texas-hospitalizations/
    All you currently in hysterics should definitely read this as well.

  12. Sorry, line one should be “I want to” (got going too hastily).

  13. What would you be willing to do if it was terrorists killing that many Americans daily?

    What would you do with a President that looked the other way?

    1. I’d tell him Rob Misek is a gross anti-semite who projects his own fear onto other people.

    2. According to statista, 167,127 Americans died of unintentional injuries in 2018. According to the CDC, 647,000 Americans die of heart disease every year. According to cancer-dot-gov, 609,640 Americans will die of cancer in 2020.

      OMG. People die.

      Meanwhile, the median age of death from COVID-19 exceeds the life expectancy at birth of those people by up to 23 years, and even the life expectancy at birth of a child born today.

      So what do you want? For the government to make it illegal to die?

      1. Are you sure your name is Karen?

    3. Terrorists can be stopped. Viruses (for which we have no vaccine) can’t. You can engage in all kinds of disease control theater, but ultimately that’s all it is. Sometimes nature is just going to do what it is going to do.

      1. Taking measures to reduce the 1000 daily death toll until we can stop it is what everyone is talking about and the US isn’t doing.

        You’re ok looking the other way. You belong in a shithole presided over by a megalomaniac retard.

        1. On 3rd Dec 2019, Dr. Fauci announced that the upcoming flu season was expected to be exceptionally bad. Keep in mind that we already have vaccines for influenza. The media didn’t make it “breaking news”. Nobody went into a frenzied panic. After all, it was “just” 70000 or so deaths, so why would they.

          I bet you didn’t start wearing a mask on 4th Dec, so I guess that means you were looking the other way.

          We’ve gone way past “reduce” into foolish talk of “prevention”. It’s too late for that now. Many of us are going to get it, and some of them are going to die, possibly including people for whom I care very much. That’s not “looking away”, that’s accepting a harsh reality.

          1. Said the lemming.

            Personally. I’m going to improve my chances by social distancing, washing, sanitizing and wearing a mask.

            I just improved your chances too, you’re welcome you fucking ungrateful narcissist.

            1. “I just improved your chances too…”

              No you didn’t. People like you are delaying herd immunity. You’re really banking on that vaccine, aren’t you?

        2. And you don’t. Care to buy a one-way plane ticket?

    4. “What would you be willing to do if it was terrorists killing that many Americans daily?”

      “What would you be willing to do if it was abortionists killing that many Americans daily?”

      1. Abortion MURDERS about 2100 people daily in the US.

        ISIS got nothing on us.

        1. Murder is a legal term. It’s the unlawful killing of another person. Please provide evidence about the unlawful killing of 2100 people per day by abortion.

          1. Name another term that describes the killing of helpless innocent human beings for convenience and ill use it.

            1. Genocide comes to mind.

  14. It’s the death tally of COVID-19 patients, not necessarily due to COVID-19. And the numbers were spiked with “probable” earlier deaths added on June 26th and July 1st:

    https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-deaths-covid-19?country=~USA

    “Limited testing and challenges in the attribution of the cause of death means that the number of confirmed deaths may not be an
    accurate count of the true number of deaths from COVID-19.”

    1. There is a spike in deaths in the past week, following the large spike in infections 2-3 weeks after the mass protests.

    2. Yep; they will count a traffic accident death if there was a positive test in the past.

  15. The haphazard reopenings didn’t give people a false sense of confidence that they were in the clear. The mass protests and the lack of hectoring the protestors about massing in public cued the rest of us in to the fact that it was now okay to go do what we want. There was no major spike in cases or deaths after Georgia, Florida, Texas and California reopened, nor was there any major spike after big Memorial Day weekend gatherings. The spike came 2-3 weeks after the protests.

    One other factor could be warmer weather driving people back indoors to shared air from air conditioning systems in the warmer states.

    1. The spike came 2-3 weeks after the protests.

      So why are there – this week – as many new cases in KS as in MN? Isn’t Minnesota where those protests were biggest and angriest? Why 2x more new cases in TN than in WA? Did they head up to Seattle to establish the cop-free zone there? Why are there 2x more new cases in Alabama (and South Carolina) than in NY? Were there no protests in NY while the South is now the center of BLM Marxism?

      I have no idea why the protests did not seem to lead to many more cases but they didn’t. I suspect however that the politicized opposition to wearing masks or, indeed any notion that this virus is anything more than ‘just the flu’ or ‘only affects old people’ is precisely what led to larger gatherings of those who signaled their opposition to the whole thing by refusing anything that signaled ‘maybe I should take precautions’. THAT is what is leading to the new case spikes. The proof of course will be whether there is a correlation between those states that are currently spiking and sales of tonic water or hydroxychloroquine (and can’t forget the zinc and pennies).

      If Dr Trump is the preferred doctor of choice for these new cases, then it is safe to say that the protests have nothing to do with the current spike.

  16. I don’t think any thought ‘Oh ok. We’re in the clear’. Talk about having a low opinion of people to think they’re this flippant and ignorant.

    I think it was more like ‘Ok. It’s out there. Public officials don’t know what the hell they’re doing except to impose draconian measures. I gotta go to work or else I starve. Shit happens. Fuck off slaver’.

    1. People shouldn’t be proud of being dumbasses. This was always going to be painful. Without the ludicrous politics imposed on us by the president and his mental illness, and the goat-like simpletons who actually think he’s a good leader, it could have been short-term pain rather than long-term. Man the fuck up and take responsibility for your stupidity.

  17. all these numbers are meaningless, because the “ground” underneath them is quicksand, and conststnly shifting.
    Until we have ACCURATE and COMPLETE statistics from accross the natioin, we have nothing really useful. Taken together we’ve got nothing more than static “traffic count” on a few individual roads, but nothing to indicate where each car goes from and to.

    We have very little accurate information on how many total across the country HAVE or HAVE HAD the infection. So total deaths stats are meaningless. No idea how many are actively infected, or have been and recovered with NO symtoms or after effects ever.
    Then we have the “death” numbers, which have been so badly cooked they are useless. We have NO idea how many listed as “died FROM/Or Covid 19, really died BECAUSE of the virus, as in would not have died except for that virus infecting them. Nor do we have any accurate stats on how many died WITH the virus. As in, would have died anyway from OTHER causes, but they tested and found the virus in the blood.
    Anyone else remember that in the autopsy report of George Floyd, he tested POSITIVE for the coronavirus? Is HIS death listed as a virus death? No he died of a drug overdose, fentany and speed. But they listed hiim as murdered by cop.

    How many people came into the ER with q bullet hole in their head, tested positive for the virus, and are listed as a cOVID death? Far too many.

    Until the death records are all reexamined independently to determine ACTUAL CAUSE of death, we’re still walking through the funny house with all the smoke and mirrors.
    And no one wants to wade through all those death records to see. Partly because the hospitals where those deaths occurred would have to pay back a TONNE of money they got for “hosting” supposed “died FROM” Corona cases.

    Everything we have now is speculation and/or rigging the system to get more FedBux. There simly are NOT enough data from which to draw any solid conclusioins. And these various control freak domineering state governors and mayors are out of control, passing “laws” they have no authority to be “enacting”. Time for all to jus tshut up and sit down, and let THE PEOPLE figure out what to do. Nearly ALL the predictions and scary numbers are NOT based in any fact.

    1. Then we have the “death” numbers, which have been so badly cooked they are useless…And no one wants to wade through all those death records to see.

      Those death records ARE waded through. Even though they take about two months for the states to send their records there and get fully recorded. And here’s the mortality numbers – by week – for this year and the last three calendar years. You can see seasonal variations – by whatever disease/cause you want. You can ignore ‘covid19’ attribution entirely if you want. You can drill down to one location – say NYC – and see what Apr (which is more than two months ago so is probably accurate by now) looked like there compared to previous. You can look at the data by age. Just dead people.

      Unless you think that the total number of dead people is also a ‘cooked number’.

      1. The reality is that only NY and NJ have seen this virus in action. So far.

        And unless states still trying to figure out this first wave are completely incompetent and blind and stubborn (and based on many commenters here I would never rule that out), no other states will. Until this fall. Then we’ll all get to see what a pandemic really looks like.

  18. vaccine is the only solution of this deadly pandemic. Till time the vaccine is being generated we have to keep our self safe and at home. Government must strict the norms and laws and keep an eye on the officials as they are working correctly or not. Government should also increase testing as this is our best way to tackle this situation. If you like my comment do visit my website worldfree4u.
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    1. Um, no. No on all of it.
      I know you’re just here to plug your lame web site, but you came to the wrong site if you think your “let the government fix it” message was going to resonate.

      A vaccine for this virus may never exist. Until one does exist, we have to act on the assumption that there will never be one. The idea that we have to wait for a vaccine that may never come or rely on governments to survive this weak-sauce virus is preposterous. We’ve evolved means of surviving pandemics, and they don’t involve governments or vaccines. It’s called “letting the virus run its course.”

      COVID is not Ebola… at least half of the people who are infected don’t even notice it, and only a small percentage of those who do notice it will have severe complications or die from it. The CDC itself estimates that 0.4% of those who have COVID with symptoms will die from it.

      Yes, some will die, and some will be adversely affected for some time to come, perhaps permanently, and it’s tragic. Life is like that, though… it is full of risks and threats, and ultimately, every one of the seven billion and change people on the planet will die from one of them.

      Those that get the SARS-CoV-2 virus and survive, around 998 out of a thousand, will have effectively been vaccinated, and that will be the final end for this pandemic. The faster that happens, the better. The news that the growth in COVID cases is in the younger population is good news indeed… they’re the ones that can get their antibodies with low risk of death, and that protects everyone, including those people who would not likely survive an infection.

      1. Much as we don’t know if a vaccine will be produced, we don’t know how long antibodies will guarantee immunity. If we go through all this death and suffering and end up with a resurgence in 6 months, without the equivalent of a flu shot, it wasn’t worth putting your neighbors through it for their own good. (Study of Spanish patients by Harvard and MIT was cold on the idea of long term immunity.) Even if you can’t count on a vaccine, there’s pretty good Consensus (reported in the LA Times) of a Plasma based Immune Globulin injection that could give at least a 2 month window of immunity; which would be a useful tool when combined with personal protection, distancing and contact tracing to starve Covid out. We don’t have to settle for just accepting death and misery, we have the option to spare people who are vulnerable. This argument is academic because we are being forced to try your recommendation because this country has no plan or policies in place that would achieve any measure of useful mitigation.

  19. The haphazard reopenings didn’t give people a false sense of confidence that they were in the clear. The mass protests and the lack of hectoring the protestors about massing in public cued the rest of us in to the fact that it was now okay to go do what we want. There was no major spike in cases or deaths after Georgia, Florida, Texas and California reopened, nor was there any major spike after big Memorial Day weekend gatherings. The spike came 2-3 weeks after the protests.

    One other factor could be warmer weather driving people back indoors to shared air from air conditioning systems in the warmer states.
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  20. HERE► The smart move would be to ditch it and come up with some constructive policies around exercise, cooking and education instead.”. I would rather just be left alone… ReadMore.

  21. No mention of percent of hospital beds with Corona patients is an indication that you don’t know what “flatten the curve,” means. Not knowing what that is means you should not have a strong opinion about Corona response

    1. You can just look at a graph. The one comparing European outcomes vs. the US is striking.

  22. Even a cursory glance at the charts will tell you that 3 days is meaningless. Additionally, last weekday reporting for this week is high due to catch-up from the holiday weekend. Perhaps we will see a slight increase going forward but we won’t know that until next week. Calling out every fluctuation, especially when you don’t understand how the reporting works makes no sense. Additionally, most deaths are occuring within a few states.

  23. Steady as she goes.

    When you’re going through hell, keep going.

    1. Said the moth as it circled the fire.

      There’s nothing good about the steady increases in cases and deaths in the US. People are not doing what is needed to “get out of hell”.

      The virus loves it when you put your personal liberty first and don’t stay away from other people, sanitize, wash your hands or wear a mak.

  24. So it turns out that mask-wearing BLM protesters didn’t cause much of a spike while the Trump rallies, which openly flouted mask-wearing as some kind of statement on masculinity, did. Trump personally caused this. Think not? What’s the difference between the US and Europe? What do we have that they don’t? How terrible does a president have to be before nonpartisan apolitical libertarians get off his fucking train, Christ. “But abortion!” Yeah do you people never tire of being used like cheap dirty sluts by politicians?

    1. Yeah,

      I liked that he was a bull in a china shop in the establishment. I won’t forget what he exposed beneath the polished veneer.

      Being a bull in a china shop during a pandemic is costing lives That’s as bad as it gets and there’s no upside.

      1. Abortion costs twice as many lives daily as this pandemic does today in the US.

        I would love to see Trump smash that establishment of murder.

  25. The Old Guard is a great movie. Flawless action sequences … great plot. 10/10 would recommend.ReadMore.

  26. Well – looks like we have the first – of many many more to come – Darwin Award

    30 year old dies after attending Covid party in San Antonio

    His last words – “I think I made a mistake. I thought this was a hoax.”

    I wonder what could possibly have given him the impression it was a hoax? Or that maybe ‘it only kills old people who are gonna die soon anyway’.

    Kind of hard to laugh at a 20-something who’s dumb. We were all there once. But for those in their 40’s, 50’s, 60’s, even 70’s etc who are selling this meme for political purposes. Shame on you. On the bright side – chances are it’s your kids you sold this meme too. They are now infected. Which means you will be too soon enough. And hey – your parents in their 80’s. On the even brighter side – hey it’s just a hoax.

    1. For life is quite absurd
      And death’s the final word
      You must always face the curtain with a bow
      Forget about your sin
      Give the audience a grin
      Enjoy it, it’s your last chance anyhow

      So, always look on the bright side of death
      Just before you draw your terminal breath

      Life’s a piece of shit
      When you look at it
      Life’s a laugh and death’s a joke, it’s true
      You’ll see it’s all a show
      Keep ’em laughing as you go
      Just remember that the last laugh is on you

  27. Hey jesseAZ – why is Maricopa County ordering refrigerated morgue trucks? Deaths haven’t even started yet – and this is ‘just the flu’ – and hey presto, yet another capacity bottleneck – county medical examiner (one branch at least) is at 96% capacity.

    Hey – at least they’ll avoid the bodies in the streets scenario. Which would really be ugly in 100+F temps.

    1. And you are loving every second of it, you sadistic, sick piece of shit.

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