Daily COVID-19 Deaths in the U.S. Continue to Rise

Meanwhile, the case fatality rate is still falling.


Daily COVID-19 deaths in the United States are continuing to rise, reflecting the impact of a surge in newly confirmed cases that began last month. The seven-day nationwide average reported by independent data scientist Youyang Gu, which is based on tallies from the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center, rose from a low of 510 on July 4 to 763 yesterday. The Worldometer tally, which is based on deaths reported by local health departments, shows a similar trend, although its numbers are somewhat higher.

Daily deaths are still much lower than they were last spring, when Gu reported a seven-day average of 2,238 on April 18, and the upward trend is much more gradual than it was that month. Furthermore, the crude case fatality rate—deaths as a share of confirmed infections—continues to fall, from more than 6 percent in mid-May to 3.7 percent today. That downward trend likely reflects wider testing, which has added milder cases to the denominator; a younger, healthier mix of patients; and improvements in treatment.

The Worldometer count of daily new cases has risen almost fourfold since Memorial Day, from fewer than 20,000 on May 25 to a record of nearly 75,000 on July 17. But as reflected in the declining case fatality rate, the increase in a daily deaths has been much smaller—about 50 percent, based on the seven-day average.

Some states have seen much larger increases in daily COVID-19 deaths. Since Memorial Day, per Gu's numbers, the seven-day average has risen by 178 percent in Florida and 338 percent in Texas. California, another state that accounts for a disproportionate share of newly identified infections, has fared better by that measure, seeing an increase of just 37 percent. And in Georgia, where the seven-day average of daily new cases has quintupled since May 25, the seven-day average of daily deaths is down a bit since then, although it was rising until mid-June and is once again headed upward. But even in Texas and Florida, the increase in deaths has been much smaller than the increase in cases.

Some of that gap can be explained by the typical lag between laboratory confirmation and death, which the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) last month estimated was about two weeks. If expanded testing is catching cases earlier, the average time between a positive virus test and death may be growing, meaning the fatal consequences of the infections recorded in early July might not be apparent until the end of the month.

Even allowing for that lag, however, it is clear that COVID-19 patients, on average, are less likely to die from the disease than they were earlier in the epidemic. That is consistent with data showing that patients in the Sunbelt states that are driving the recent increase in cases tend to be younger than they were in the spring. The median age of people testing positive for the virus in Florida, for example, plummeted from 65 in early March to 35 in mid-June.

Such trends have important implications for the death rate, which is strongly correlated with age. According to the CDC's "best estimate," 1.3 percent of Americans 65 or older who develop COVID-19 symptoms will die from the disease, compared to 0.2 percent of 50-to-64-year-olds and 0.05 percent of people younger than 50. The ultimate death toll will therefore depend heavily on the success of precautions aimed at protecting older and less healthy Americans from infection during the time it takes to deploy an effective vaccine.

While a younger mix of patients implies a lower case fatality rate, we can still expect daily deaths to climb as a result of the recent surge in new infections. Gu, who has a good track record of predicting COVID-19 deaths, has repeatedly increased his projections during the last few weeks. His model still predicts a gradual rise in daily deaths during the next month, followed by a gradual decline through October. But the projected peak has risen from 774 in late August to 918 on August 11, and the estimated death toll as of October 1 has risen from about 186,000, the projection in early July, to nearly 200,000, rising to about 214,000 by November 1.

NEXT: This Health Care Law Bars Competition And Drives Up Prices, Even as a Pandemic Rages

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  1. >>Daily deaths are still much lower than they were last spring

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  3. Europe’s borders remain closed.

    *cue ominous music*

    1. So, when troops are rotated back to the US they are not replaced?

      1. That’s a good question. I’m guessing there are ‘special exceptions’.

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  4. Solid fact-based reporting. Thank you.

    Graded on a straight scale: B+

    Graded on a curve, against all the other “news” covering Covid-19 daily: easy A+

    1. No, he used percent increases in the deaths rather than telling us the numbers. This is a common tactic to obscure either how good or how bad something is. He is writing like a newspaper hack rather than as a science correspondent.

      Still better than most, C+.

      1. Neither numbers nor percentages tell anything useful by themselves. You need both. The worst compare a number against a percentage.

      2. Agree – Fl and TX are running at about 1/10 and 1/15 of the NY peaks respectively. Historically, this far into an epidemic, we will not see major growth in this proportions.

        1. Sorry, meant to specify “per capita’

  5. As long as we’re in hundreds, not thousands, I think it’s likely that the epidemic is mostly over.
    Headline should have been “death rates remain relatively low”.
    The fact that it is increasing in some places is not surprising or hard to predict. Some places just took longer for the virus to get to. Of course when people start moving around more again it will spread a bit faster.

    1. The fact that it is increasing in some places is not surprising or hard to predict.

      Nothing about the disease was surprising or hard to predict. It’s the resulting apoplectic panic that was unpredictable.

      1. I still say the most disturbing part of this whole thing is the inability (or perhaps unwillingness) to adjust policy in real time based on observed data. People make mistakes, they can misinterpret early data etc., but this just seems like we’ve dug our heels in, and we’re not budging no matter what facts present themselves.

        1. Adjust policy? You mean admit to over or under reacting?

          To me the most disturbing part is believing that most of these restrictions are going to stay in place. I was thinking about getting a part time job as a waiter, for some spare cash. But not if I have to wear a mask. Somehow I doubt that restriction is going away, nor is the new acne on the faces of those forced to wear the damn things all day.

          1. Adjust policy? You mean admit to over or under reacting?

            Yes, exactly. By adjusting policy in real time, that is essentially a tacit agreement that you were wrong or misguided.

            A health crisis is EXACTLY the kind of thing that officials should adjust in real time. If there is any policy I can think that should be extremely flexible, a health crisis (real or perceived) is it.

            1. I agree with your previous statement (and this one) and would fault all of our leaders, Trump included passively, for a lack of vision and/or adaptability.

              It should be highlighted and every spcialist and faux libertarian should be slapped across the face with the fact that if leaders with such maladapted decision-making abilities were in charge of coming up with touch-free delivery, drive-thru liquor sales, and zoom meetings of their own accord more people would’ve died, lost their jobs, and be otherwise socio-economically harmed. They saw a bad decision making things worse and couldn’t collectively come up with any better ideas except to do more of the same.

              The only reason they have the luxury to hem and haw about whether they should double down on these bad decisions is because they are made and kept free to do so by better leaders and business owners than themselves.

          2. This is the part where I remind you that people born after Richard Reid was arrested are old enough to vote and that you still have to take your shoes off for the TSA.

            1. Uggghhhh. Now I’m depressed. I guess I better stock up on masks the rest of my life.

          3. Fuck I didn’t flag that on purpose. Was trying to X out the video.

          4. One has to bear in mind that the rules about wearing masks while going out in public and social distancing at around 6 feet or more from other people are still in place for a reason. People who refuse to obey these rules not only put others at risk, but they put themselves at risk for Covid19 as well.

        2. Yes. Coumo was threatening another lockdown because some rebellious residents broke social distancing rules. If he can go on a PR tour down south to “help” the states that helped NY then it’s not that serious. At some point ppl were going to start getting on with the business of living with or without government permission. People under 40 have seen more ppl in our age group die from random reasons over COVID-19 since March. People are still dying from other human causes of death.

          1. When people break the rules, they’re screwing themselves, as well as others. What’s so hard for them to understand about that?

      2. It’s the resulting apoplectic panic that was unpredictable.
        Indeed. I’m still reeling. What the fuck just happened?

    2. I said early on that the US, being one of the more free and populous (and relatively honest/objective) countries, would be among the highest number of cases and deaths first/soonest. However, being one of the better managed healthcare states and generally more affluent, would have one of the lowest CFRs.

      The disease was never going to kill 2.2M people. Ebola is far more contagious and far more deadly and it wouldn’t kill 2.2M people and, if it were on track to kill 2.2M people, a two-week break from work, social activities, etc., would be more than enough time for people to figure out their own lives and how to conduct it so as to avoid contracting ebola and bringing it to work or home to their families.

      1. But that won’t stop our “leaders” from crowing about how they saved 2 million Americans.

        1. Why not? Obama saved over 7 million jobs!

          He said so!

      2. That’s because when the Ebola pandemic broke out, we had the anti-pandemic group in our government to control and contain it. Since President Donald Trump fired the anti-pandemic govt. group two years ago, and was criminally irresponsible in his too little/too late response to the Covid-19 Virus, and the firing of the anti-pandemic group, he made an already horrific situation a hell of a lot worse than it already was. Donald Trump could’ve taken responsibility back in December 2019 and this past January, when the Covid-19 virus was still relatively easy to contain, but he chose not to, which was disgusting.

    3. Yep. We’re seeing exactly what we expected: The steepest curves did the worst but finish first. The flattened curves take longer but don’t threaten the medical system in the same way.

      The places that are still dealing with covid are the places that did BEST at flattening the curve.

      Yet we have to hear the “experts” tell us how NYC “beat” the virus because they can’t admit it ran through when they weren’t ready and they nuked the economy for nothing.

      1. The steepest curves did the worst but finish first. The flattened curves take longer but don’t threaten the medical system in the same way.

        This and the rest of your post should be noted as true *in spite of the policy predictions*.

        NY implemented the lockdowns earlier, faster, and harder than FL and still almost singularly accounted for the US spike. While FL was lax by most any state’s standards in getting mitigation in place and still has/had an exceedingly flat curve, especially relative to NY.

        Thus far, the only medical system that has faced any real threat was a small regionalized on in Italy. Most of the rest have been high but still less than 100% of normal operating capacity (and certainly less than anything like 110% or 20% overflow capacity).

        1. The NY spike was due to their murderous governor and NYC mayor.

          1. Yep. Even though they were “fastest” to react, it was already far too late. NYC is perfectly ideal virus-spreading city. Then Cuomo dumped gasoline on the fire.

            Still, they didn’t exceed their healthcare capacity (though it was close!)

            Even now the “Houston ICU full” is only their normal capacity. They have the ability to easily add another 1000 beds and then ANOTHER 300, though that would be more difficult. All with 650 covid patients in the ICU, and numbers already declining.

            The world is going to have a lot of questions for Mr. Cuomo very very soon.

      2. So, another way of saying this is that only Sweden and Belarus had it right, as I’ve been saying since the start. (Well, the Sweden bit anyway; it is only more recently that I learned that Belarus also took the same approach).

        We’ve been trying to stop the natural adaptation process that we have evolved to allow us to survive diseases, and we’ve been sold the idea that if we only obey the politicians like Cuomo, people that “stupid” doesn’t even begin to describe, the pandemic will end sooner. By employing methods intended to flatten the curve, aka “drag the pandemic out over a longer period of time with the same ultimate number of deaths,” we’re ending it sooner and saving lives.

        It’s probably a good thing that masks do not do a damned thing to slow the spread of the virus (and may accelerate it, though many of the “COVID” cases are probably bacterial respiratory infections caused by the masks themselves, adding to the false tally of COVID cases that are used to justify the mask mandates), since herd immunity is the only thing that is going to end this once and for all, whether it comes from a needle or from nature.

        It used to be that the mask requirements were confined to the more awful areas of the country like New York and California, but with the recent increase in positive tests, they’ve spread across the country like a virus. What could give a petty tyrant the jollies more than seeing scores of people dutifully going about in their face diapers, just as they were told?

        The people yelling the loudest that mask wearing is supported by science appear to have the least knowledge of what science actually is. They love to pat themselves on the back for being pro-science, uncritically believing anything presented to them as the “word of science,” without ever trying to evaluate things for themselves.

        As it is presented, “science” has become the official state religion, one that says whatever its self-appointed prophets want it to, useful for putting the stamp of approval on any government action desired. How convenient!

  6. So overall, the death rate has fallen roughly 2/3rds from it peak. Is that right Mr. Sullum?

    You trying to pull a Bailey?

    1. Sullum was running late, and needed to get an article in. He swiped the statistics off of Bailey’s desk, in an on-running feud between the two. Upon discovering the theft, Ron debated whether to send a strongly worded letter of complaint, or just key Jacob’s car. He went off looking for a CDC report that would help him decide, and hasn’t been seen since.

      1. This is much more interesting reading than the original article.

    2. O/T – Have you seen The Federalist article on God King Murphy?

      And I’ll say it again – he is one ugly SOB.

      1. May Phailing Phil reap what he has sown, one-thousand fold.

  7. In our population there exists a subset of people for whom infection by COVID is a death sentence. I’ll call them Group A. Once exposed, there is no amount of medical assistance that is going to save them (e.g., 80% of people who get put on ventilators and in ICU care for this still die). Short of magically knowing who those people are and placing them in sterile bubbles for the rest of their lives, there is likely nothing that we can do to prevent their deaths.

    There exists another subset of people for whom infection with COVID is going to cause severe illness, but with the miracles of modern medicine, like ICU care and ventilators, they can eventually recover. Call this Group B.

    There are other groups: those for whom COVID infection results in virtually no detectable symptoms (may be upward of 50% of infections) [Group E]; those for whom COVID infection causes mild flu-like symptoms that they recover from without medical intervention (may be upward of 40% of infections) [Group D]; those for whom COVID infection results in severe illness, perhaps requiring hospitalization but not extraordinary care (no ICU, no ventilators) [Group C]. Let’s ignore these, because except for the small last group, they resolve on their own or with some standard-level medical care.

    Because we really cannot separate Group A from Group B until after extraordinary care fails to save them (must have been Group A) or they recover (must have been Group B), we tried to slow down the rate of infection so that we did not overwhelm the hospitals all at once with all the Group A and B people at the same time. Because if we ran out of ventilators, the next person that needed one might be from Group B and might die as a result of not having the ventilator.

    In other words, “flattening the curve” was, by definition, trying NOT to save every life–we know those in Group A are dead anyway–but to hopefully ensure there were enough resources available to save as many Group B people as possible. Maybe a little bit of trying to keep from flooding the hospitals with Group C folks, again to save the Group B people by not overwhelming resources.

    Sadly, the folks in Group A will die from COVID sooner or later, because the virus is in the wild and half-assed lockdowns that let people go the the grocery store, Wal-Mart, and Home Depot will not protect the people in Group A. No amount of masks or social distancing will prevent all Group A exposures. The virus is in the wild and those folks in Group A will eventually be exposed and they will die from it. Period. The only way we reduce the size of Group A is when they die from something else before they are exposed to COVID.

    Again, sadly, the people in Group A are essentially “dead folks walking”. We should do what we can to protect them and save them, medically speaking, but it is foolish to think that we can prevent their deaths. Instead of locking down the whole country and obsessing over masks and social distancing, it seems far simpler that we should have isolated the most at-risk folks (e.g. over 65 w/ obesity and/or diabetes).

    1. Good post, mpercy

    2. Thing is, you can’t isolate the at-risk folks without cries about inequality. Restrictions must apply equally to everyone. Which means not enough to truly protect the at-risk folks, but unpleasant enough to get most people to thank authorities for “doing something.” Kinda like the TSA. Only they haven’t managed to destroy the economy.

      1. >>Restrictions must apply equally to everyone.

        restrictions need not apply.

      2. I thought that was implied by “half-assed lockdowns”.

      3. The restrictions need to be imposed by the people themselves, i.e. voluntary. This idea that some government idiot can make better decisions for people he knows nothing about and has never met than the people themselves is ludicrous.

        The media has presented us with a false dichotomy of everyone being forced to lock down or everyone being forced to go about business as usual, but ending (or better yet, never having in the first place) lockdowns doesn’t mean everyone is forced to live life as though COVID never existed. Every person has the ability to impose their own lockdown on themselves. They have the ability to enact their own mask rules for themselves.

        Now, it is true that deciding to lock yourself in your basement when the rest of the world reopens can have consequences. Perhaps you work at a movie theater, and you can sit at home and collect unemployment as long as the theater is closed, but if it opens, you lose your “sit at home and do nothing” money.

        If you expect us to extend lockdowns so you can stay home on the taxpayers’ dime, well… no. Lockdowns kill, and if you expect us to kill people just so you can have free money, the answer can only be no. If you want to stay at home, do it. It’s your choice. So is finding a way to make money while at home, which a lot more people have been doing than ever before recently. The most vulnerable people are generally getting pensions or Social Security benefits anyway, so they are better positioned to lock themselves down than the younger set that is a lot less likely to die from the disease.

    3. Short of magically knowing who those people are and placing them in sterile bubbles for the rest of their lives, there is likely nothing that we can do to prevent their deaths.

      Incorrect. Even if you magically know who they are and put them in sterile bubbles, their deaths are still inevitable.

      I’ve said before and I’ll say it again; a good portion of these people were 1 flu vaccine away from being last year’s (or the year before that, etc.) flu victims.

      1. And why not let our small-government individual-liberty believing brethren explain to us why they get to decide which citizens live and die because they’re too much of a sad whiny bitch to put on a mask.

        1. You heard it here. If everyone wears a useless cotton mask, nobody will die. Ever.

        2. >>why they get to decide which citizens live and die because they’re too much of a sad whiny bitch to put on a mask

          welcome to Fantasy Island!

        3. I never said anything about deciding who lives and dies. I’m just pointing out the ultimate inevitability of it, because we’re not going to wear masks at all times forever, are we? And even if we do wear masks at all times forever, the virus will still manage to be transmitted, albeit perhaps at a slower rate. And we’re specifically talking about the subset of people for whom exposure/infection is effectively a death sentence.

          1. But it’s not inevitable. Is it also inevitable in Europe? Are they all simply delaying the inevitable mass death event by having successful outcomes now?

            Trump fucked this up and you’re trying to say it’s OK no matter how many people die for the sake of saving his face.

            1. Is it also inevitable in Europe?

              Is Italy not in Europe or are you declaring it a successful outcome? I’m interested because you don’t seem to remember how Italy was going into meltdown before the US had even gone into lockdown.

              The US, UK, France, and Spain’s daily active case rate was roughly identical to the US’s through Mar. and the first half of April and only diverging in the latter half of April because the US has more people than the other three combined. To date, their deaths per 100K population are *still* almost 50% higher than the US and the CFR for France, Italy, and the UK are more than triple that of the US’s (and Spain’s is more than double).

              And, once again, if you take out NYC or the four worst counties nation-wide, the US comes out distinctly better than even places like S. Korea, New Zealand and Australia.

              If Europe is how you define successfully delaying the inevitable outcome of COVID, I sincerely hope we fail.

            2. Trump did about as well as any president could be expected to. I am quite glad we had him there and not Hillary Clinton… yeesh.

              Masks do nothing to stop COVID. They’re in the same category as cloves of garlic to ward off vampires, nothing more than good luck charms that put people at risk of bacterial infections and getting COVID themselves, while not providing an iota of protection for anyone else.

              1. Are you wrong on purpose? Do you understand how being right on facts means you can’t possibly support the Republican Party, so you choose to discard the facts and not the party? How very sad.

        4. they’re too much of a sad whiny bitch to put on a mask

          Uh, by your own precepts, the people not wearing masks are the ones staring death in the face without blinking. Or are you admitting that the masks don’t do dick for the wearer?

        5. You preach about masks more than Evangelicals preach about Jesus. Perhaps you can start your own Mask church. Your savior, the Mask.

          1. Actually it’s just about keeping spittle to yourself.

            1. Spittle, but not SARS-CoV-2, which will just be converted to an aerosol, where it can linger in the air for hours and penetrate any mask with impunity, short of N95 (which still lets about half of them through).

              1. Not what I read, though I did read it a few months ago when they had all of one study done on masks. Now as far as I’m aware cloth masks can reduce risk of spreading by 60%. I’ll assume your oversight has nothing to do with an absurd belief that you are entitled to pick and choose evidence depending on which political team is better served.

                And it would be hard to explain why medical authorities would beg everyone to wear masks that don’t work. George Soros made them do it I bet.

      2. “Even if you magically know who they are and put them in sterile bubbles, their deaths are still inevitable.”

        True. I should have said “their death from COVID”. If we can magically pre-identify the COVID victims and isolate them in sterile bubbles, they will still die of something but we will have “saved” them from COVID.

    4. Because we really cannot separate Group A from Group B

      Hold my beer.

      Watch this. I can magically figure out, with greater than 99% accuracy, who is likely to die while having (not necessarily FROM) a COVID-19 infection: People who are over 75 with at least one existing morbidity but TYPICALLY (as in greater than 51%) 3 or more. People like my aunt in law, who was over 80, had a stroke, was hospitalized with pneumonia, and then caught Big C on her death bed. You know, the sort of people the grim reaper was already hovering over. The sort of people for whom the actual flu is also deadly.

      But no. Let’s shut down politically disfavored businesses and wear diapers on our faces and print 3+ trillion dollars because of a disease that kills healthy people less frequently than fucking lightning.

    5. Excellent mpercy.

      We can isolate those in Groups A and B – but they should be doing it themselves, or their caretakers should be isolating them. And they are not destined to die from the virus since there are lots of other ways to go.

      My wife is probably in group C (at least she believes she is in A, B, or C), so we are isolating like hell. Haven’t been to a restaurant, store, church, or friends’ house since early March. I may be facing a long stretch in near-solitary. And these are supposed to be our golden years. Not happy.

      Actually, we are all doomed to die of the virus or, if we can avoid it, of something else. Just a matter of time.

    6. You’ve got an idiotic attitude towards people over 65, mpercy. There are plenty of people over 65 who are healthy, active, and without any underlying medical conditions. That being said, I and other healthy people over 65 have just as much right to be out and around and not isolated all the time as younger people. If you don’t like that, tough.

  8. Notice how most of the mass media has stopped reported deaths except as an afterthought? Now its “new cases”, which may not be new cases at all, there’s a lot of counting of anti-body positives, which might be people who had the COVID weeks or even months ago and represent not “new cases” but are in fact “old cases, presumed recovered”. And of course there will be lots more positive test results, since we’re testing far more people weekly now than we were 3 months ago.

    The media focuses on the raw “case count” numbers, without delving into the type of test used, the infection rate, the positive test test rate, deaths per case or any other metric that is not likely to keep panic high among the masses.

    1. And when the numbers get too small to mean anything, they start using percentages.

      1. As does Sullum.

    2. I’ve noticed a lot since this pandemic started.

      And one of them is just how remarkably untalented and incompetent many leaders in the West really are.

      They hide behind public health officials – who are equally as lost – like cowards too scared to lead. Rather, they just gave the keys to the Cadillac and said, ‘Go. Just bring the tank back full!’

      Bimbos and pimps rule over us.

      That’s my take away.

      1. And one of them is just how remarkably untalented and incompetent many leaders in the West really are.

        They hide behind public health officials – who are equally as lost – like cowards too scared to lead. Rather, they just gave the keys to the Cadillac and said, ‘Go. Just bring the tank back full!’

        Personally, this lesson goes back to the Bush campaign and Katrina when an advisor was asked if the storm surge would top the levees and gave an answer along the lines of “It’s uncertain. It’s possible but not likely.” People were claiming he ignored the advisor’s warning like the guy had said, “Damn The Constitution and fuck the Governor! Send in federal aid workers now or people are gonna die!”

        I’m sure there earlier examples, but this is the first one I recall seeing first hand and thinking, “Wait, what the fuck did that advisor actually say?” It was a very stark contrast to stereotypical heroic scientific advisor that Hollywood likes to lionize.

        1. People get the idea that science is a series of black and white choices because it is often portrayed that way on TV. It ain’t.

          Without mentioning uncertainty most discussions on Covid or AGW or hurricanes are almost meaningless. Why can’t these ‘experts’ put things in context; even the weather reports are honest enough to say “60% chance of rain”.

    3. Yep. This entire time they have only been in reporting the scariest data, not the data that would be most useful.

      1. Carve this into your wall – true for politics and the press:

        The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

        H. L. Mencken.

        1. I vote for displays like this in public spaces.

    Update from Houston: ALL THE HOSPITALS ARE (not) FULL! And they’re not going to be, since new #Covid hospitalizations are down 30% in a week. Is there a word for panic porn as badly timed as that

    spectacular? They’ll update it soon, I’m sure.

    1. Hospitalizations and new deaths per day are dropping in Arizona too.


    Deaths rising but still not exploding nationally like they were in the spring.

    1. Corona fea porn.

      When they do explode something else is gonna explode in their pants.

      1. fear

    2. Gosh, it’s almost like this virus works just like all the other similar viruses that we are familiar with.

      1. Nailed that!

      2. You mean the ones that we’ve known that masks were useless against for decades?

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  12. Meanwhile, speaking of the Peter Principle, Cuomo said, ‘things are getting worse; not better’.

    And everyone is living in fear. Good job assholes.

    1. Haven’t you been paying attention? Being a teacher during COVID hysteria is like being in the first wave to land on Omaha Beach.

      1. Except it’s more like being the wave that landed when the beach hand already been secure for months (in this case, by all the people who never stopped working in the first place).

      2. The new york times had an editorial from a teacher asking why she should have her life put at risk and she was refusing to go. Probably after she went to the grocery store without a care about those working there.

        1. And she probably drove her car there, which, depending on her age and co-morbidities, might have been more dangerous.

          People in the COVID panic are like folks who drive 500 miles to go to the beach, then say “I’m not going in the water because I’m afraid of being eaten by a shark.” Completely discounting the actual risks of driving there vs getting attacked by a shark.

          Far more kids have drowned this year than have died of COVID, but no one is saying anything about keeping kids from swimming.

        2. Life is risk. None of us make it out alive. You are risking your life if you have a life, no matter what you do. The key is to manage the risks and make decisions based on the odds, and recognize that life is not fair, and sometimes you do the right things and die, while others screw up badly time after time and live.

          The government and media intentionally terrorized the feeble-minded (like that teacher who will be influencing future generations) into being afraid of their own shadow. I am not sure whether they overshot the target or if they hit it dead center with stories like that one. I’m inclined to think the latter.

      3. Being a teacher during covid is more like being in Beach Blanket Bingo.

  13. If you look at the excess death rate ( ) the number of deaths are actually lower than the same period going back to 2017.

    1. Wait until they readjust actual deaths downwards.

      Everyone knows they’re padding the numbers.

      1. That’s when they will use percentages. “Death toll up 20% in a week!” When you dig into the numbers you see five fatalities the previous week, and six in the current.

        1. This is/was already being done in rural places. 2 people you don’t know in a rural county of 10-20K people doesn’t mean as much as 50% more deaths than last week. Especially when opioids killed 2 in a week the month before that and 2 died in traffic accidents the week before that.

          1. I think Mark Twain said figures don’t lie, but liars figure.

      2. How exactly are they padding the total mortality stats? Are they creating deaths for people who never existed?

        1. everyone who died died of covid. oh wait, no they didn’t.

        2. Someone who goes skydiving and dies from a parachute malfunction will be counted as a Covid death if the pancake that’s left of them tests positive.

          1. That’s irrelevant. The data is showing total mortality – not specific causes Either the person died or they didn’t. The assertion is that they are simply making up deaths in order to create a Covid19 death

            1. No, the assertion is that they’re padding the numbers. By counting deaths that were in no way caused by the virus as virus-related deaths, simply because the corpse tested positive, is padding as far as I’m concerned.

              1. If that is happening it would not be affecting total mortality. A death attributed to Covid19 would be subtracted from a death attributed to skydiving. Total mortality would not change.
                Instead total mortality is higher. Which either means something is actually causing that or ‘deaths’ of people who never existed are being created.

                1. The excess deaths are down not up, they have been going down since late June, right about the time the cases started rising again after the protestors started getting people sick. What that means is the low hanging fruit (the elderly and infirm ) had been reduced in number by those helpful Governors that sent the infected into care facilities. The greater number of those becoming infected now are those that can handle the virus.

                  1. They haven’t been ‘ going down’ since late June. They are incomplete data. The CDC specifically says all recent data is incomplete on that graphic and goes into a lot more detail on the methodology page.
                    Once the data is complete, then you can compare it to the now complete data from earlier to see if there is a change in trend

                    1. Um….check the figure in his link ( )

                      There are 4 weeks after the starred weeks. These show a downward slope and the last two are well below the average number of deaths.

            2. I think you have a point there.

        3. We’ve seen cases where GSW victims counted as COVID deaths. We’ve seen alcohol poisoning counted as COVID deaths.

          1. George Floyd was a China virus death.

        4. It’s obvious from the linguistics. Originally it was ‘COVID deaths’, then it became ‘COVID-related deaths’. At one point, if a COVID patient prevented you from having a hospital bed when you suffered a heart attack and died, people were discussing counting that as a COVID death. Further, while it may cloud the waters, if the heart attack victim tests positive, they still might be considered a COVID death despite the fact that they’d suffered multiple previous heart attacks, didn’t display any other symptoms of COVID, and couldn’t have contracted it long enough ago to develop symptoms/complications.

          You might say this is just the nature of science and communication taking time to get up to speed with the reality of the situation but that idea cuts both ways. If we don’t understand it well enough to have developed and distinguished COVID deaths from COVID-related deaths, then how does a projection of 2.2M deaths made months ago have any reasonable conception/application, let alone the policies drafted around such premature science?

    2. That data doesn’t show what you think it shows. If you are looking at the orange line that is merely the normal seasonal fluctuations with a margin added so that true excess mortality can be more visibly seen. If you are looking at the data points with the red x, those have a lag of about a month or two before all the data makes its way from the local to state to fed level and gets coded

      1. That data doesn’t show what you think it shows

        Please, Jeffy-splain some more, because nobody even said what they thought it meant.

    3. So, if science were to tell the story, here is what it would be: COVID has killed 125k people in the US who were not expected to die anyway and the current downward trend below the expected deaths implies that some number of those 125k died 1-3 months sooner than they would have otherwise.

      Oh, and since half of all excess deaths come from NYC and the surrounding area, sounds like Cuomo and the other metro area governors killed a lot of grandmas sooner than they would have otherwise passed. Prison for the lot of them!

      1. There is no current downward trend below the expected seasonal numbers. There is a LAG in reporting and coding deaths through three different levels of government. As the graphic specifically states. That lag is about one or two months before it all shows up in the graphic

        1. In your opinion, and you are entitled to it. We will have to wait until the end of the year to know for sure. I for one choose to believe they will continue to go down as those getting sick now tend to be abler to handle the virus. Not to mention new treatments being discovered as well as those that had been ruled out by the talking heads just because the President had endorsed them but are now proving to be affective. That includes Hydroxychloroquine.

        2. It has been 3 weeks since you made your prediction of the Arizona apocalypse of dead bodies. ICU usage for covid patients never peaked above 60% (and that was for a very short time).

          Keep clicking your heels though.

        3. No, Jeffy is just too stupid to read the graph. The weighted numbers for the last 2 weeks are well below the expected. Weighted means it is already adjusted to account for the lag. The weighting is quite significant as the graph approaches now.

          This is exactly what you would expect to see at some point because, as COVID kills people who are going to die anyway, they cannot then also die in a later period. That point has arrived and even the CDC isn’t going to deny it.

        4. We went from thousands/day in April to hundreds now. I don’t think a slight uptick means the end of a downward trend. Doesn’t mean it’s continuing either, but since it is clear that many part of the country are just now getting their first real wave, it should be expected that there will be some more ups and downs. But my money still says we are pretty much over the hump nationally (to the extent it makes sense to talk about it that way).

        5. JFree: No guys. You just don’t understand. Looking at the data is important when the data looks terrifying but when it doesn’t look terrifying the data is incomplete.

          1. Looking at the data is important when the data looks terrifying but when it doesn’t look terrifying the data is incomplete.

            And when the ‘data’ is nascent projections based on spurious reasoning and now-defunct definitions we have to continue to base policy around it but when it’s actual numbers cast against a long-term background of actual numbers, you guys don’t understand, and we shouldn’t discuss any policy based on such immature data.

    4. And that’s with the ~13x increase in suicide rate the lockdowns caused, not to mention the certain increases in substance abuse deaths and preventable medical deaths because people experiencing (for example) chest pains or slurred speech and weakness on one side of the body elected not to call 911 and to ride it out at home instead.

    5. Donald Trump caused hundreds of thousands of unnecessary deaths due to the Covid-19 viruses, and people like you don’t seem to care. It’s disgusting!

  14. So good then it appears the retired crowd should stay in hiding, the rest should not.

    Not the fear uncertainty and doubt the elitist assholes would like us to have. But they keep trying and gullible outlets like CNN and Drudge and the rest keep spouting out the BS.

    1. CNN, Drudge and other outlets aren’t gullible.
      They’re complicit.
      This is all about the Democrats and their media allies tanking the economy and claiming that Trump ‘mismanaged’ Covid-19 and killed your grandma.

      It’s going to take a combination of the 2008 crash and Hurricane Katrina to drag Joe Biden over the finish line.

      1. And idiots, like Tony, bite what the media are creating, hook, line, and sinker.

  15. True story. I just walked up my sidewalk and ran into the mail carrier. He was new on the route and had questions about what addresses were what (my house numbers have been removed for a while because I got new siding and haven’t replaced them– and neighbor’s house numbers are on the ‘side’ of his house due to orientation of house to street etc). A… person (couldn’t tell if it was female or male– kind of like Pat from the saturday night live skits) was walking by with xer dog. Xe yanked xer dog off into the median, and wrapped xer arm around xer entire face and stood there, glowering at me and the mail carrier as if we were coughing leprosy into xer face.

    1. There’s a guy who rides his bike with a bandana over his face (as if that will stop the virus) and every time he passes someone without a mask (mind you this is in Texas sunshine in July) he rings his bell really loudly…you can hear the bell ringing all up and down the bayou as no one is wearing a mask but him.

      1. Ha Similar thing here walking with co worker outside (we have mandatory indoor mask 🙁 ) bicycler 30 feet away is yelling 6 feet away from me stay away while he peddles furiously away. The illogical fear the media has caused depresses me i have to see endure this

  16. Whatever doesn’t inconvenience me even in the slightest measurable way* is the correct policy approach (copy and paste for literally anything).**


    *If my actions cause other people to get sick and die, that was by definition the correct policy approach. Too bad so sad.
    **If I happen to get sick, I reserve the right to shame any and all Democrats for not taking a stricter policy line.

    1. If you weren’t such a fatass, maybe you wouldn’t be so scared.

    2. I think it is more about the absolute sanctity and universality of contract law in the highly developed legal system of ancap Libertopia.
      Not only do two parties have the absolute right to contract anything at all between themselves. Said contracts are also enforced and legally binding on all third parties.
      Two people can agree to infect others, to pollute others and even to enslave others. The US used to be Libertopia until that Lincoln tyrant prevented the righteous secession of the Libertopia Confederacy.

      1. Is there a term for an argument weaker than a strawman? Noodleman maybe?

    3. Do you drive 25 mph or less? If not, you are risking the lives of others. Please slow down to save countless lives Tony.

      1. Don’t encourage him, you can hear the shrill whining from here. Just let him vent, not like it will change anything much less keep him from getting the virus.

      2. Well if he’s driving or using public transportation he’s killing me by polluting my environment. Would you only walk; barefooted (because your shoes which were produced also put chemicals into my water and air) So you wont put me at risk?

      3. We do slow down and it’s law and everyone pays attention and it’s not a big deal. Stop being such a goddamn pussy. You are not smarter than the CDC.

    4. **If I happen to get sick, I reserve the right to shame any and all Democrats for not taking a stricter policy line.

      Weird how your sarcastic libertarian disclaimer defends Democrats a priori. Mine reserves the right to shame any and all Democrats and Republicans whether I get sick or not.

      It’s almost like you don’t really care about liberty or people getting sick as long as Democrats don’t get the/any blame. Huh.

      1. I’m not the one who is arguing for excusing every American death because an (R) is president.

    5. So you’ll be wearing a mask at all times forever, then. I get it.

      You know, we have a vaccine for the flu, true, but only about 60% of people get vaccinated each year. And we also have flu-specific drugs like Tamiflu. But flu still kills tens of thousands of Americans every year. So if you’re not wearing a mask, you might be spreading flu virus and killing people; heck, you might have already killed people and done so annually!

      With no vaccine for COVID, with no COVID-specific treatments, with no herd immunity, I say again, COVID is is not much of a virus, doing only about 2-3x more deaths than the flu? Flu fights through vaccines, mutating seemingly at will to break through the lines, it laughs at Tamiflu, and kills tens of thousands. COVID saunters around and barely does better than the flu?!

      People seem to think that their failure to wear a mask during every flu season for their enter life is somehow acceptable, and they’ve absolved them from responsibility for spreading the flu that kills so many annually. They never looked up and saw 20k, 30k, 60k people (2017/18 flu season killed between 60k and 90k, estimates vary because flu deaths are not required to be reported) and said “Gee, we need to social distance and wear masks all the time to save these people!” and if/when COVID is solved, I suspect they will go right back to ignoring flu deaths.

      If preventing one COVID death is worth everything we’ve been through, why is preventing one flu death not?

      And if you’re not willing to mask up always and forever, your just selfish bastard who doesn’t care about flu deaths.

      P.S. At no point have I said that COVID is the same as the flu. So don’t go off on that tangent. COVID seems to be somewhat more deadly overall than the flu, primarily because it kills elderly people at far higher rates than the flu. I’m asking why COVID deaths are somehow more important than flu deaths–how many people is it OK to let die from the flu when we could prevent many of those deaths with masks and social distancing during flu season?

      1. You know, we have a vaccine for the flu, true, but only about 60% of people get vaccinated each year. And we also have flu-specific drugs like Tamiflu. But flu still kills tens of thousands of Americans every year. So if you’re not wearing a mask, you might be spreading flu virus and killing people; heck, you might have already killed people and done so annually!

        It’s exceedingly likely that he voted for someone who approved killing foreign people in foreign lands and it’s a near certainty that he paid for them to do so.

        It’s exceedingly likely that he voted for someone who approved killing people who were a few months, weeks, or even days shy of being born and it’s a near certainty that he paid them to do so.

        But he whines like a bitch if you suggest that people should be free not to be forced to support such actions.

        1. Abortion. Really. Trump can preside over the demonstrably worst response to a pandemic in the world, can send un-uniformed federal thugs to round people up for their politics, and libertarians need pay no mind because abortion. Did the GOP at least give you a wink after they threw your buck fifty on the dresser?

          1. Did the GOP at least give you a wink after they threw your buck fifty on the dresser?

            Don’t get mad at me because Obama left you high and dry and Papa Joe won’t even return your phone calls.

          2. Did Donald Trump force New York to hold huge covid lunar new year parties in February and send infected people to nursing homes? Look at how many peopled died in blue states. Or just NY and NJ.

            The first cases were reported in the west coast. By April NY was an epicenter. By the time protests ended 3 big states that appeared to have dodged a bullet got bit by covid because the lunatics who run America’s big cities thought racism was a public health issue.

            You know who admitted that protests spread covid all over CA? Barbara Ferrer. Congratulations, your left wing friends killed a lot of Latinos, more than Trump could ever do in his “concentration camps”

    6. I can’t see any of us shaming Democrats for not taking a stricter line.

  17. The CDC posts an “excess deaths” chart, but it’s not updated every day. There’s no doubt some lag time anyway. Still – the chart is interesting when you look at the “excess deaths from all causes”. We’re below projected deaths from all causes and have been for weeks. About 8,000 people die in the USA every day (using 2019 numbers) – and except for some weeks in April – we have not seen many more deaths than expected. I realize that we may see the numbers jump up again, but I also wonder if the MSM is happy to make us think thousands and thousands more people are dying every day than we normally experience.

    1. Somebody needs to stop all the dying.

  18. reads like CNN. What a bunch of chinese ass kissing sluts.

  19. It’s a race between the COV-19 virus and Chicago!
    Who will win?
    The deadly virus, or the city that depopulates its citizenry every weekend?
    Las Vegas bookmakers say it’s too close to call.

    1. Have any of you ever been to a city? The burnt-out anarchic hellscapes of your imagination are not the same places where, let’s see, literally all the billionaires choose to live and work.

      Of course conflating persistent gang violence with BLM doesn’t have any unfortunate implications at all.

      1. Have any of you ever been to a city? The burnt-out anarchic hellscapes of your imagination are not the same places where, let’s see, literally all the billionaires choose to live and work.

        This makes me think you don’t really have any idea about where billionaires live and work. Given your track record of homes and real estate and your otherwise general stupidity I could see how Warren Buffett’s $650K home in Omaha would be your conception of where billionaires live. However, in reality, places like Woodside, Medina, and Jackson Hole are at least an order of magnitude away from anything that conventionally constitutes ‘a city’. And even more popular places like Palo Alto still generally fall short of the mark.

        1. Tony is an ignorant slut. Even the communists who rule NYC admit after chasing out 100,000 millionaires with punishing taxes there’s been a huge gap in revenue.

  20. FL had one day in all of May where they saw more than 50 daily deaths. California experienced 80-100 deaths regularly that month, while it was still closed and weeks before memorial day.

    Everyone in CA who’s not a deranged leftist knows the protests mangled a state that was trying to reopen. EVERYONE. Barbara Ferrer acknowledged it. It’s scientifically impossible for protests that size NOT spread the disease somewhere. Paper and bandanna masks won’t protect you in a crowd of thousands.

    You’ll see montage of protests and beach goers (because they’re equally culpable, you see) set to ominous music in “covid spike” new coverage, which is the most you’ll see the media acknowledge that massive protests were a bad idea. The left screwed the country in the east HARD and then moved their operation to the west.

    The southwest was also too close to Mexico to come out unscathed. CA didn’t properly lock down Imperial, which became a hotspot in early June. I’m repeating myself, hoping that Reason will maybe think that super happy fun open borders time is not a good idea in a pandemic, in a country of this size where massive tracing will be harder.

    1. “Paper and bandanna masks won’t protect you in a crowd of thousands.”

      True– and if they won’t protect you in a crowd of thousands, they won’t protect you anywhere else either.

      1. Banana masks are even more effective.

  21. “the case fatality rate is still falling”
    And that’s basically the gist of the matter.
    We’ve known all along that most people are going to be exposed to Covid. As long as hospitals are not swamped, things are going as they must.

  22. Well yes, with as many cases as have been added to the tally over the past month or so, sheer numbers of deaths in a given day are obviously going to increase at some point no matter how low the fatality rate is. What’s important is the relationship between numbers of cases and deaths, and while those tracked each other pretty well from March through May (the shape of the death curve tracked the shape of the cases curve pretty well when deaths were moved back ~14 days to account for lag), since June that relationship has broken down. Cases have taken off like a rocket, while deaths continued down for a while and only in the past couple weeks have started to tick up a bit, and hardly in anything matching the “spike” in cases. Even accounting for the time between diagnosis and death, the relationship is nothing like it was early on. It is clear to anyone who cares to pay attention that almost all cases being diagnosed now are not having bad outcomes, and in all likelihood are minimally symptomatic or asymptomatic. Whether it is because of a less susceptible population being infected, a weakening virus, better treatments, or a combination of these (most likely the last), this thing has lost almost all its teeth on a statistical level. However, we should all be terrified of just getting this virus that is so deadly we don’t even know we have it unless someone tests us for it because… reasons I guess.

    1. And this is exactly what we would expect: When testing is limited to the very sick, all our cases will appear to be severe. However, the first antibody tests showed this was FAR more widespread than we thought and we were missing about 90% of cases.

      As testing restrictions eased, we started catching more of those 90% of mild cases we were missing before. This is nothing to freak out about.

  23. We need to return to mini tribalist cultures. This government leadership thing with corporate media isn’t working.

  24. Here are 7 at-home jobs that pay at least $100/day. And there’s quite the variety too! Some of these work-at-home jobs are more specialized, others are jobs that anyone can do. ghu.They all pay at least $3000/month, but some pay as much as $10,000.


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