A Recession for Kamala?
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A few reasons to remain calm about the economy
A key indicator has predicted every recession since 1970, and the alarm just sounded.
We're often told European countries are better off thanks to big-government policies. So why is the U.S. beating France in many important ways?
At a minimum, the national debt should be smaller than the size of the economy. A committed president just might be able to deliver.
The U.S. tax system is extremely progressive, even compared to European countries—whose governments rely on taxing the middle class.
Big corporations and entire industries constantly use their connections in Congress to get favors, no matter which party is in power.
If lawmakers keep spending like they are, and if the Fed backs down from taming inflation, then the government may create a perfect storm.
If the midterms favor Republicans, their top priority needs to be the fight against inflation—whether or not they feel like they created the problem.
"The history of developed countries since 1970 is very discouraging about the prospects of bringing down 8 percent inflation," says Larry Summers.
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reports that GDP grew 0.6 percent in the third quarter of 2022.
The idea that the Fed has the knowledge necessary to control the economy with perfectly calibrated policies was always an illusion.
This fiscal irresponsibility throws gasoline on the country's already raging inflation fire.
"The fact-checking industry has become a partisan arbiter of political disputes," notes Phil Magness.
Most Americans believe so.
The economy is spinning, but we’ve proven there are viable ways to slow it down to more bearable levels.
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The danger of the virus can’t be considered to the exclusion of the need for jobs and prosperity.
People like the convenience of digital transactions, but they rely on the anonymity and reliability of physical money.
The Golden State has the highest gas tax in the nation, and one of its worst-performing highway systems.
Even after government had imposed an almost unfathomable level of intervention on the economy, the markets are chugging along much better than expected.
Top-down, one-size-fits-few mandates are recipes for conflict.
It may be a statement about the decline of the dollar, but the best-case explanation of the resilient stock market is that it is sending us a positive message about a rapid recovery of both public health and corporate profits.
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That's a huge concern as forecasters expect the U.S. unemployment rate in the months to come to surpass that seen during the depths of the Great Depression.
America will have to pay for its spending spree and its wars.
The details are reeeaaaaaally sketchy, but here's what we know now.
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"Public pension systems may be more vulnerable to an economic downturn than they have ever been."
"The economy is not like an engine that's going too hard," so let's stop analyzing it like one.
Texas Tech University's Robert Murphy vs. Cato's George Selgin at the Soho Forum
Another downturn is inevitable. What matters is how we respond.
Stock market and debt troubles could mean bad news for this presidential election year, giving Trump and Sanders both more traction for their respective bad ideas.
President Obama may try to spike the football only to realize he's in his own endzone.
Expect even more red ink and massive deficits during our next recession.
"What the voters want is snake oil. They want something that makes them feels good"
The last economic contraction was during the first quarter of 2011.
They voted for this disaster, twice
Germany and France both experienced growth, but output in Spain, the Netherlands, and Italy dropped
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