Reason Roundup

Washington's Recent Fiscal Recklessness Will Look Even Worse if America Is Heading Into a Recession

Plus: Fashion versus the police state, a truce in the Kansas-Missouri border war, and more....

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Markets tumbled on Wednesday as the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by more than 800 points and U.S. Treasury bond yields flashed a warning that usually signals a coming recession. Forecasters predict a slight recovery on Thursday despite the fact that overnight trading in Asian markets was similarly bad.

Are we heading for a recession? Treasury bonds seem to think so. The yield (how much investors get paid after the term of the bond) for 10-year U.S. Treasuries fluctuates with market conditions, but it almost always pays more than the yields for shorter term, two-year bonds. That makes sense, of course, because investors expect bigger payouts in exchange for locking up their money over a longer period of time. But on rare occasions, like yesterday, the yield curves will cross—"don't cross the streams!"—and the two-year bonds will offer higher yields. This is something investors refer to as an "inverted yield curve."

That might seem like a weird little thing that shouldn't unnerve international markets so dramatically, but the last five times it's happened, a recession has followed.

If a recession is on the way, then recent fiscal recklessness on the part of Congress and the White House will look like an even bigger mistake. The current national debt exceeds $22 trillion, and the Congressional Budget Office estimates that the federal government is on pace to add another $11 trillion by the end of 2029.

Or, rather, that was the pace we were on before a massive new spending bill was approved by Congress last month. The CBO has yet to weigh in, but the $2.7 trillion budget deal is expected to add another $1.7 trillion to the debt over the next decade.

Those projections also don't anticipate recessions, which typically cause a decline in tax revenue and an increase in demand for government services. A recession, in other words, will make America's current debt crisis significantly worse.

When it comes to America's economic health, presidents generally get more credit and blame than they deserve. But it's impossible to ignore the impact on Wall Street of Trump's meddling in international trade and his haphazard handling of the trade war with China. The trade war is creating crippling uncertainty for businesses, many of which are delaying investment decisions. Exports have declined and business investment fell into negative territory during the last quarter—both of which could be effects of Trump's tariffs and could help cause a recession by slowing economic growth.

It is too soon to tell whether the next recession will be caused by Trump's trade policies. However, it is almost certain that the next recession will be worsened by his and Congress's total disregard for fiscal responsibility.


FREE MINDS

Resist the panopticon in style. Hacker and fashion designer Kate Rose unveiled her "Adversarial Fashion" line at a cybersecurity conference in Las Vegas last weekend. She tells The Guardian that if surveillance cameras are "able to be fooled by fabric, then maybe we shouldn't have a system that hangs things of great importance on it."

More from The Guardian:

To human eyes, Rose's fourth amendment T-shirt contains the words of the fourth amendment to the US constitution in bold yellow letters. The amendment, which protects Americans from "unreasonable searches and seizures", has been an important defense against many forms of government surveillance: in 2012, for instance, the US supreme court ruled that it prevented police departments from hiding GPS trackers on cars without a warrant.

But to an automatic license plate reader (ALPR) system, the shirt is a collection of license plates, and they will get added to the license plate reader's database just like any others it sees. The intention is to make deploying that sort of surveillance less effective, more expensive, and harder to use without human oversight, in order to slow down the transition to what Rose calls "visual personally identifying data collection".


FREE MARKETS

War is over if you want it. Gov. Laura Kelly of Kansas, a Democrat, and Gov. Mike Parson of Missouri, a Republican, signed a deal on Wednesday that they say will put an end to the practice of trying to lure businesses from one state to the other with tax breaks and other economic incentives. The so-called "economic border war" mostly resulted in taxpayers getting the bill for politically motivated job-poaching that didn't help either state's economy.


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  1. Markets tumbled on Wednesday as the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by more than 800 points and U.S. Treasury bond yields flashed a warning that usually signals a coming recession.

    This is how Trump gets out of having to continue being president.

      1. If the markets crash, it’s gonna be Obama’s fault.

        1. Yeah, I am sure you will be blaming Obama. You called it.

    1. Hello.

    2. Of course boehm doesnt mention even the fed sec Yelin stated she doesn’t believe a recession is going to occur. What happens is the automated trading algorithms reacted to the bad news (inverse yield) producing a sell off despite virtually every other market being positive. By next week this one day blip will be a one day blip. But boehm will continue to yell markets are imploding like the dumb love child of Krugman until he is right. Boehm is no better than Maher wishing for a recession because orange man bad.

      1. More cheap stock for me to buy.

        Thanks rookie traders!

        1. My 401k stock was scheduled to buy today. I was happy for yesterday.

          1. That is an important point… For most people with 401ks, they but in once or twice a month like clockwork because that’s what is set up in the system. So they will always be some limited support. Even in a crash, the 401ks will still buy.

        2. Reason’s absolute worst Trump troll goes totally off the rails, Again It’s almost self-evident, but I’ll explain it for the Alt-Right, now a majority in this vermin-infested commentariat.

          loveconstitution1789
          More cheap stock for me to buy.
          Thanks rookie traders!

          Exactly like Trump, when tragedies occur, he invents a reason to claim victory. For himself. The reason is absolute bat-shit crazy, to even the modestly informed. But it works. Trump’s core base will believe anything said by their new Lord and Savior, Donald Trump..

          Trump is Second Coming, to anyone not brainwashed by the MSM and the Deep State.

          He’s been training them for decades, starting with Birtherism. He knows he owns their very souls, because he bragged about it! They would defend him, as their Lord and Saviour, even if He shot someone someone to death , on Times Square … in broad daylight.

          Can anyone really have their very soul that enslaved to a psychopath? Well, lc1789 he says it every time the market crashes. LC1789 says a stock market crash is a victory for Trump! Because people like him can afford to buy more stock. The total, absolute, crockpottery of that can be easily proven, by only 4 digits.

          1929.

          If those numbers don’t have you laughing, hysterically, you have just finished reading this.
          .
          Believe lc1789, that the 1929 stock market crash was GOOD. Why? Working and middle class Americans could buy more stock … so the 1930s saw the greatest worldwide economic boom EVER… even with unemployment over 30%

          No mistake. lc 1789 says the market crash was caused by “rookie traders,” intentionally losing tens of billions of dollars, so they could buy the same stock they dumped …at the same price they sold it for … so HE could buy more stock. The diabolical bastards

          And that says all we need to know about Trump’s core. base.. History buffs will also be singing the same song. HAPPY DAYS ARE HERE AGAIN!

          Praise Jesus DONALD!

          Think I’m joking about Trumpsters? JesseAZ has signed on. His 401K can buy more stock. How much gain will Jesse pocket,
          when the stock returns to …. Where it was?

          Others will likely sign on. But from here on, most comments will be a raging hissy fit of hatred … toward me.

          1. Poor hihn troll.

            1. HUH? lc1789. YOU are the one who says stock prices are set by “rookie investors” NOT by millionaires, investment and pension funds.

              YOU are the one who says stock market crashes are a victory!
              Do a Google search for 1929 and get back to us.

              The crash of 1980 went to a 70% loss. YOU say that’s a victory! It fed THE worst recession since the 1930s double digit inflation AND unemployment.

              Forget stock prices. How does the working and middle classes win with unemployment at 30% (1930a) and 14% (1980s) … were all those layoffs millionaires and billionaires?)

              But BLESS YOU. For anyone who may have thought I was exaggerating about Trump’s core base … you just proved me correct by sinking even lower!

              (Can he or she sink even lower? Stay tuned!!)

              1. Dumbfuck Hihnsano has another bitchfit.

                1. Trumptards call it a bitchfit … to defend massive gaffes by any fellow cyber-terrorists… thereby proving me correct about Trumpsters!.

                  FACT, RESEARCH: Cyber-bullies don’t care about looking foolish to the adults in the room … who already know they’re thugs, bullies and aggressors..

                  They comment solely to nurture fellow terrorists, which REQUIRES unprovoked assaults, like this? How many are here already? (yawn).

                  There will be more. Take one for the team!

                  1. Dumbfuck Hihnsano bitchfits and copypastas his programming some more.

                    1. How does one copy pasta?
                      Are you too cowardly to address the issues he stated?
                      So you would censor or assault him or her for winning.
                      Why do you say the same thing, and assault the same persons as the Shitlord?
                      Why is it a matter of pride to be a shitlord, and celebrate your white supremacy?

                      Do you not realize you are hatred signalling? Or don’t you care?

          2. Haha. The Dow having a bad day is a “tragedy”? Get some perspective, man. This is why more people don’t take the perpetually aggrieved left more seriously. And of course, you’re all far too brilliant to consider changing tack. Haha. What a drama queen.

            Don’t change a thing.

            1. (boldface in self-defense of aggression, by someone who misread both the article and me, topped by a wacky false ASS-umption))
              Another one!

              THIS WAS NOT ABOUT “THE DOW HAVING A BAD DAY.” FAR GREATER CONCERN IS THE INVERTED CURVE, WHICH HAS CAUSED A RECESSION THE LAST FIVE TIMES A ROW .

              1) TOTALLY misread my use of “tragedy. “It was lc1789 who saw it as a tragedy. What else would cause him to post anything so totally humiliating?

              2) A tragedy to who? To Trump. duh

              3) How can you defend market crashes being GOOD, after my correcting that nonsense. Now YOU google 1929

              MORE WHINING, typical Trump base.

              people don’t take the perpetually aggrieved left more seriously

              ASS-umes only the left does not worship his Lord and savior. So the left now includes George Will, Bill Kristol, Michael Steele? (just the prominent ones)

              Now check the web archive of my published writing”> Check the topics: Taxes, Health Care, Governing and Education.

              1. Dumbfuck Hihnsano thinks we’re about to have another Great Depression.

          3. “bat-shit crazy”

            Yes, yes you are.

            1. ANOTHER assault by a Trumpster — AS PREDICTED!

              Like all cyber-bullies
              … COMPELLED to launch hate-fueled assaults. Does NOT care if he makes a public fool of himself on the issues AND LYING about what I said.

              Now THREE Trumpsters defend their Lord and Savior by going rogue
              1) Stock market crashes are GOOD.
              2) BELLEEBS that the working and middle-class workers GAIN from 15-30% unemployment, caused by …. unemployed millionaires?

              It’s like the loyalty oaths during the 1950s GOP communist witch hunt. One MUST show loyalty to the cause, or be guilty of TREASON.

              1. Dumbfuck Hihnsano belches more lunacy.

    3. One sure way to make a small fortune is to start with a big one and make your investments by timing the market.
      I guarantee there will be a recession…………….
      sometime.

  2. The right is worried that immigration will destabilize society. The left is worried that automation will. Am I the only one who thinks a society of people of diverse national origin, living and working beside intelligent machines, sounds absolutely fucking amazing?

    Sadly, no you are not. Total naivety and complete ignorance of how the world actually works is sadly the norm rather than the exception. You are a rube in a world run by maroons.

    1. But just imagine all the great ethnic restaurants!

      1. And food trucks and uber. Think of all the delicious food trucks you can access by Uber as you live paycheck to paycheck in your career in the gig economy.

        1. Food trucks run by white people appropriating other cultures.

          1. That is not funny Jesse. Cultural appropriation is serious!!

        2. Be serious John. Of course all these millennials will have their video go viral any day now!

      2. Yeah, there aren’t any of those now.
        The US is very diverse and that isn’t going to stop being the case.
        I’m pretty pro-immigration (of people who can be productive or at least not a drain on other people’s resources), but the fetishizing of “diversity” in a very narrow ethnic sense as a good in and of itself is pretty weird.

        1. This. And Reason is treading that line. The tweet was a tad immature as John pointed out.

    2. Apparently we cant reach a diverse country by only allowing 1 million visas a year.

      1. As long as we have a single unfashionable white person, we can never be diverse Jesse.

      2. Exactly, JesseAz.

        America cannot possible be considered “diverse” when tens of millions of mixed ethnic Americans have babies.

        “Diversity” is only when non-Americans are thrown into the Melting Pot that we already have had since 1776.

        1. My children are not mixed race. They are brown. It works out better that way.

          1. You know what I am trying to say.

            America is already super “diverse”. America is so “diverse” that we don’t actually have an American race.

    3. Not all of us can have a cushy federal government job, John, where we can post all day on Reason from our cubicle.

      1. Motherfucker you post day and night wtf lololol

        1. He means ” not all of us have a cushy federal job, I have to sit at home on a metal chair since welfare doesnt pay enough.”

          1. Haha. You beat me to it.

            That was the perfect comeback for that little shit ChipperMW

    4. Haha. Just about anyone who leads in with “am I the only one who…….” is about to say something stupid.

  3. …put an end to the practice of trying to lure businesses from one state to the other with tax breaks and other economic incentives.

    The first one to get across the board his or her state’s tax and regulatory burden reduced will be guilty of breaking the cease fire.

    1. Bipartisan cooperation: Two thieves with their hands so deep in each others pocket that they can’t individually rob a third.

  4. An autopsy revealed that Jeffrey Epstein suffered broken bones in his neck.

    And, apparently, rhinoplasty.

    1. How the rhino got into his cell is anybody’s guess.

      1. The worst part is it was wearing a “Hillary 2016” T-Shirt.

        1. She persisted.

          1. “what happened”

    2. Even I am starting to believe in this conspiracy theory.

      1. How do you hang yourself with paper sheets? No kidding, the sheets in his cell were paper. And the guards just happened to fall asleep and lie about checking on the one prisoner in their custody whose death anyone would care about? Yeah, that sounds legit.

        1. They were government employees, I expect nothing less than sleeping on the job from them

          1. No. Government employees and especially cops know when to do their jobs just enough to stay employed. If it were anyone but Epstein, your explanation would be fine. But, it wasn’t.

            1. John is speaking from personal experience here.

              1. My main job is living rent free inside of your head. The quarters are cramped and the place is empty, but it is free.

                1. Be careful, John, that place is scheduled for demolition at any moment.

              2. You’re saying he works with people like you?

            2. Sometimes doing your job “just enough” still leaves time a for a nap

        2. I didnt hear anything about paper sheets. I thought he was off suicide watch after spending a few weeks on it?

          Paper is wood. Do enough plys of that paper and you might have something fairly durable. See plywood.

          People do break neck bones when they hang.

          This smells fishy but no smoking gun yet. As intended. No jail guard was going to put their freedom on the line for a paid hit on Epstein.

        3. to bad there is no more Myth Busters, it would be great to see them try to roll a paper sheet into a noose.

          1. That would be very interesting. Even if they were still on the air, no way would they have the balls to do such a show.

            1. Balls or bad taste. I think suicide is probably not a great subject for a popular entertainment show.

            2. Disposable detention coveralls

              I dont think the coveralls are what you guys think. They have a zipper and its made from “1 oz. spun-bonded, non-woven polypropylene is breathable, soft and pliable”.

          2. I’m sure it’s possible. Paper is pretty strong under tension.

      2. Yeah, seems mighty fishy given how many important people likely had something to worry about if he went to trial. I’m not convinced, but I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he was murdered.

        1. The goal is to deflect the attention away from them until a new false flag operation is conducted.

  5. Trump hasn’t condemned China’s crackdown in Hong Kong because he made a private deal with Chinese President Xi Jinping to stay out of it.

    Luckily Trump doesn’t honor his contracts forever.

    1. Trump isn’t trying to start World War III. The guy is a maniac, unfit to be President.

      1. No no no. Trump is the first president ever to negotiate a private deal. This is unheard of. We probably need to invent a word for this… how about diplomacy.

        1. Nadler will surely use this as another excuse to try to unseal grand jury records. Especially considering the courts just denied his flimsy first attempt.

  6. “Markets tumbled on Wednesday as the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by more than 800 points and U.S. Treasury bond yields flashed a warning that usually signals a coming recession.”

    AAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH….

    The sky is falling!!!!!

    DOW Jones is back up 100+ points as of 9:35 am EST.

    1. NPR, yes that NPR, had talking head after talking head, including Yellen, reciting the ‘this isn’t the indicator of recession you’re looking for’ mantra. Very strange.

  7. The War on Terror will now officially be fought on American soil, too.

    THE FOUNDERS NEVER MEANT TO SIGN A SUICIDE PACT!!!

  8. ..a truce in the Kansas-Missouri border war.

    Don’t meth with Missouri.

    1. “Misery” you mean.

      But yeah, don’t get high on your own supply.

      1. I thought it was “Miseruh”

        1. The pronunciation is all good and the spelling fits Ozark living.

  9. Proposition 13 treats all California property taxes the same. Voters could change that in 2020

    Some of the highest taxes in the USA and now a push for far higher taxes?

    Looks like more businesses will flee that shithole state.

    1. Morons like you can flee if you like. Some realize the value of taxes spent wisely.

      Why does Cali continue to be the 6th biggest economy of the world? Shouldn’t Alabama or Kansas be in the lead ahead of them if low taxes are so great?

      1. Fucking LOL at citing Cali “spending taxes wisely” after the high-speed rail boondoggle.

      2. Haha. This troll wearingit doesnt not even realize that I don’t live in Commifornia.

        Its like these bots are getting even dumber script coders than before.

      3. Are you implying high taxes are what makes Cali’s economy so productive ? And are you implying that that money is being spent wisely ? yikes.

        1. He clearly has not spent time at a california dmv.

  10. ..a truce in the Kansas-Missouri border war.

    Headlines from 1859

    1. John Brown hit hardest.

        1. Friggin’ awesome.

        2. +10

          Hay, that’s pretty awesome.

          1. The bible and the gun are perfect.

        3. Not a fan. I’m a very proud Kansan, but I hate the fetish that my state has with John Brown. Abolitionism was a just and noble cause, but that man was a murderous zealot, plain and simple. The ends don’t justify the means.

          1. The mural doesn’t strike me as adulatory of Brown. But YMMV.

          2. He was a murderous zelot in the pursuit of a cause that was fighting real evil. If it involved anything less than the evil that was slavery, the fact that he was a zealot would be a point against him. Against slavery, it is a virtue.

            Regardless, the painting is so over the top it is great. It’s awsomeness has nothing to do with your opinion of Brown.

  11. Happy trails to former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper, who is expected to end his Democratic presidential campaign.

    So I take it the plan for these B-listers to get into this so that they can drop out and endorse the eventual winner and get a cabinet post or ambassadorship? Seems like a long con which has a payoff not commensurate with the effort.

    1. That practice is so long established, I am not sure you can even call it a con anymore. It is just one of the ways you get a cush job if your party wins the White House.

      1. Only, it seems, if you back the right horse.

        1. That is a universal rule of politics.

        2. Hillary said neigh.

          1. Not as well as AOC does.

    2. Like I posted below, the state Dems are begging him to run for Senator. That’s likely where he’ll go if he really wants to stay in politics, unless President Biden taps him for a cabinet position–Commerce or Energy would be my guesses, given his background.

    3. Way I see it, B-lister gets a bunch of idiots to pay for their life for a few months’ campaigning, and gets a phony-baloney job (with great benefits and pension package) in return.

      Win win

    4. But it is commensurate with the effort. These people crave attention and power above all. Both campaigning and a cabinet post satisfy those urges.

  12. Nuclear Reactor for Mars Outpost Could Be Ready to Fly by 2022

    Cue Space Force Theme Music.

    Eat your heart out Ars TechniLeftyca.

    1. In space no one hears lefty heads explode.

      1. I am a glass half-full kind of guy.

    2. And yes, “Simpsons” buffs, the Kilopower folks are your people: DUFF and KRUSTY are references to the iconic animated TV show.

      In all honesty, I was reading all of Patrick McClure’s quotes in Phil Hartman’s voice before I got to the part with the acronyms.

    3. Shouldn’t they just use solar?

      1. Problem #1 is periods of no Sun.

        #2 size of solar panels to electricity production ratio is probably not as good as these reactors. We have decades of proven reliability with small space probe reactors: Voyager, Pioneer, Cassini, Galileo…

        1. Even the rovers that were nominally solar powered required radiothermal heating to keep their batteries from freezing. They approached/surpassed Viking 1’s operational record but couldn’t have come anywhere close without relying on heat from radioisotopes.

  13. Philadelphia suspected gunman in custody after hourslong standoff and six officers shot

    Maurice Hill is the suspect’s name supposedly. Let’s see if the MSM Propagandists call this guy a Black Supremacist mass murderer.

    1. If Trump is responsible for inciting violence against immigrants, why isn’t BLM and the entire Democratic party who are its cheerleaders responsible for this?

    2. mass murderer

      Why would anyone call him a mass murderer?

      1. I thought headlines were supposed to have lies in them.

        1. Haha. $parkY walked right into that one.

          1. Yeah, you’re right. I forgot how retarded your “jokes” are.

            1. That wasn’t a joke.

              I will let you know when I post a joke. Hold your breath until then.

  14. U.S. Applies to Seize Iranian Tanker Held in Gibraltar

    Thanks to Trump, the American taxpayer is getting a refund on that horrible cash pallet transaction Obama did with Iran.

  15. Happy trails to former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper, who is expected to end his Democratic presidential campaign.

    The state party’s been begging him to run for Senator because the polls are showing that he’d wax Cory Gardner, so that’s probably where his campaign war chest will be directed.

    We’ll see if he goes in that direction. Senator is a pretty sweet gig, but he’s been doing politics for 16 years already as Denver mayor and CO governor, and I suspect his Presidential run was more of a flight of fancy (“Gee, wouldn’t it be neat to be President?”) than anything serious.

  16. Am I the only one who thinks a society of people of diverse national origin, living and working beside intelligent machines, sounds absolutely fucking amazing?

    I hope this Russian NPC bot likes ushering in not only the collapse of American culture as we know it but also the rise of a multilingual Skynet.

    1. This sperg is actually stupid enough to think the purpose of the machines is to supplement the labor force rather than replace it. Fast-food corps wouldn’t be looking into automated food-making machines and investing in self-serve order kiosks if they actually considered them complementary.

      1. The purpose of automation is to free the human mind and body from menial tasks for the purpose of pursuing other, hopefully more satisfying and creative, tasks.

        1. No. The purpose of automation is to automate a repetitive task.

          A SIDE EFFECT of automation MAY BE more free time.

          God you are fucking bad at this.

        2. No it is not. Automation is meant to replace low skilled labor. Full stop. It is not intended to allow you to sit on your ass painting happy trees. Automation is a cost analysis on a business like every other expense. Your free time has nothing to do with it.

          1. He’s also stolen another base (or two) in the assumption that a “freed” human mind doesn’t, predominantly, just turn to mush. Like sitting around thinking about riding a bike or throwing a baseball imbues you with the skill of actually doing those things and/or not having to do those things, your brain (and body) will just retain those skills at their peak forever. A huge chunk of leisure activities already constitute emulating inefficient and laborious tasks that have already been automated or otherwise obsoleted.

        3. Fully Automated Luxury Gay Space Communism

          1. “The purpose of automation is to free the human mind” = Fully automated lobotomies to pacify dissenters.

        4. “The purpose of automation is to free the human mind and body from menial tasks for the purpose of pursuing other, hopefully more satisfying and creative, tasks.”

          Haha. Where do the Communists come up with this stupid shit?

        5. “The purpose of automation is to free the human mind and body from menial tasks for the purpose of pursuing other, hopefully more satisfying and creative, tasks.”

          So the same as socialism

        6. More satisfying tasks like getting woke…

          1. +10

        7. Like dumpster diving! For the low skilled.

    1. Don’t worry, reason is often very worried about elected officials publicly criticizing judges

      https://reason.com/2017/02/05/trump-vs-the-judiciary/

      The same conservatives who were outraged by Obama’s actions then should be outraged by Trump’s actions now. Trump, just like Obama before him, is seeking to undermine the independence of the judicial branch because it threatens to rule against him. Judge Robart is not a “so-called judge.” He was duly nominated by a U.S. president and duly confirmed by a Senate vote of 99-0. Trump may not like it, but as president he is constitutionally bound to obey federal court orders.

    2. No, really, they are concerned about this

      https://reason.com/2017/03/22/gorsuch-calls-trumps-attacks-on-judges-d/

      Trump does not recognize this distinction, viewing any judicial interference with his agenda as illegitimate. “We’re also taking decisive action to improve our [immigrant] vetting procedures,” he said at a Republican fundraiser last night. “The courts are not helping us. I have to be honest with you. It’s ridiculous. Somebody [Gorsuch, presumably] said I should not criticize judges. OK, I’ll criticize judges.”

      The courts are not supposed to “help” Trump. In fact, they are supposed to hinder him, to the extent that his policies conflict with the law. That is obviously a matter of dispute, and it should be the focus of Trump’s criticism.

      If reason didn’t employ lying leftist hacks with double standards, they wouldn’t employ anyone at all.

      1. Clearly, Trump’s bluster is worse for the country than an actual threat of court-packing by Congress.

        1. Orange man bad Ray. Orange man bad.

        2. an actual threat of court-packing by Congress.

          Have they done anything yet?

          1. Do you know what the word “threat” means? Look it up and get back to us.

          2. Man, the shit you pick to cry about $perg¥.

          3. FDR had the House of Representatives passed the Judicial Procedures Reform Bill of 1937. It was defeated in the US Senate.
            Judicial Procedures Reform Bill of 1937

            So, yeah, the Democrats already tried to pack the SCOTUS to get their way.

          4. Wow. Your mind must have exploded after you were busy just a few days ago saying trump already implemented red flag laws because he mentioned them in a speech.

            1. You shush, $perg¥ is special and you should be considerate.

            2. So you’re saying these situations are similar. Agreed. We should not be concerned with court packing because, like Trump’s call for red flag laws, it’s just talk and we should ignore it completely.

              1. I’ve been the consistent one here. Waiting for energy to be put behind words. You and sparky were the ones claiming trump had already enacted regulations numbnuts.

                I’ll wait until the idiots actually create a bill with a chance of passing to be outraged. Right now they just look like children.

              2. We should not be concerned with court packing because, like Trump’s call for red flag laws, it’s just talk and we should ignore it completely.

                No. You should be concerned with both and call out reason’s hypocrisy for only being concerned about one and not the other. And that is all that is going on here.

              3. You should be talking to $perg¥.

              4. It’s always funny to see the same three tards with the same retarded excuse.

          5. I’d say putting threats on paper from congress critters is far more dangerous than the occasional off the cuff remarks from the president

  17. What do The Rock, Pikachu, Jar Jar Binks, and Donald Trump have in common?

    Each will be president before the end of the half century.

    1. We’ve already had Jar Jar.

  18. China softens stance on trade after saying it has to take counter-measures to US tariffs

    Poor Commies in China have to devalue their currency and now this?

    *Tyrant Leader Xi looks at sky and shouts something like KAWHN!

  19. A recession is probably two years out – we haven’t seen the top yet. And I believe the true “inverted” curve is when the 30 year crosses below the 90 day. But with the Fed easing already and the Prime Rate only around 2-2.25, we are fucked in the next recession – we have nowhere to go except negative rates and the Fed buying their own bonds again. Europe will be doubly fucked – the German 10 year bond I believe is still yielding negative %.

    1. The sad fact is that we are in the midst of a fracking boom and a government that finally has an industrial policy besides “please come and rob us”. This should be a golden age. Thanks to the fed and the Congress refusal to even try to control the deficit, we are setting ourselves up to be fucked royally when the business cycle eventually turns.

    2. I think the Fed playing games (among other things) has led to a lack of predictability that is difficult to quantify. I do know I don’t place much stock in the predictions of people who can’t use their economic expertise to get rich though.

      I also think recessions have a psychological component, and that it appears certain journalists are trying to talk one into existence.

      1. I also think recessions have a psychological component, and that it appears certain journalists are trying to talk one into existence.

        Agreed.

      2. I also think recessions have a psychological component, and that it appears certain journalists are trying to talk one into existence.

        That is absolutely the case. They are desperate to turn any economic bad news, no matter how insignificant, into the Great Depression.

        1. They arent even hiding it. There have been many articles on a recession as the only means to stop trump.

        2. the left and media claimed every year of Bush’s presidency was a recession until it finally happed through government interference. they made it happen once after six years of trying they hope they can do it in four this time

          1. Spaceology

            Any IT Crowd fans out there?

            “Every star you can see in the night sky is a wish that has come true”!

  20. Russian pilot hailed after ‘miracle’ landing of passenger jet following bird strike

    Or was it? Looks to me like it was Trump interfering with Russia’s elections that caused this. I don’t look forward to Putin’s pee tape.

  21. U.S. Yield Curve Just Inverted. That’s Huge. – Bloomberg “Dec 03, 2018”

    Totally predicted a recession

    1. Inverted Yield Curve in 2018 Is Taking Over Wall Street … “Dec 07, 2017”

      So did that one

      1. “Those nine recessions all began 6-24 months after the yield curve inverted”

        Oh OK so it’s useless as a predictor. Cool.

        1. And every one of them began on a day ending in “Y”!

          1. +100000

          2. Import illegal spanish calendars to stop the recession. Open the borders now!

    2. I hate it when my curve gets inverted.

      1. Boiiiiiingggg!

    3. Someone always accurately predicts a recession. Usually the person who is constantly predicting a recession. Funny how people get more credit for correct predictions than demerit for wrong ones.

      1. See climate change?

        1. Yeah, forgetting the predictions that failed to come true about climate is a similar phenomenon. I remember being told in the 90s that we wouldn’t have snowy winters anymore in the 2000s.

      2. Somehow that never seems to apply to gold bugs (or Austrian school) in their own mind.

    4. Whatever happened to the Octopus that predicted Superbowl Victor’s?
      On a slightly more serious note, everything is an accurate predictor until it isn’t. Remember, until Reagan, every President first elected in a year ending in zero died in office. We’ve had two that haven’t since then, of course this is just correlation.
      The better question is how often has the yield curve been inverted without a subsequent recession? Or is the time frame so generous (and recessions so inevitable) that a correlation can always be found?

      1. My guess is the yield curve is no longer an indicator of anything other than out-of control debt load and Treasury debt maturities that have been ultra-short for two decades now. It’s just broken now in the short-term and only matters now for the economy if it persists for a few bond auctions.

        It used to be an excellent indicator. But our debt load now is gonna break a ton of those indicators going forward. It’s the first stage in how the debt load will ultimately cause the mother of all financial crises.

        First step – break everything that people think helps them project the future so that everyone is flying blind.

  22. Trump makes rare trip to Clinton state, hoping to win back New Hampshire

    Naw. Trump was just going to find Walter White’s winter hideaway.

  23. Stocks Plunged After the Yield Curve Inverted. History Says Don’t Worry — Yet

    Don’t tell Eric Boehm. Once that guy has facts, he never runs around like the sky is falling.

  24. If a recession is on the way, then recent fiscal recklessness on the part of Congress and the White House will look like an even bigger mistake.

    On Republicans, yes. Genius on the part of Democrats.

    1. According to Peter Suderman, the House is no longer part of the Congress. Only the Senate and the President have anything to do with the budget and budget deficit.

      1. Wait I seem to remember reading somewhere that all taxes must originate in the house. Where did I read that? All I know is that’s why the Obamacare tax when I have no insurance is more of a penaltax.

        1. I seem to recall some really old concept about Congress having the power of the purse. But these things are like 400 years old and written in Sanskrit or something.

      2. Of course, John, Trump piled on $22.5 trillion in US debt all by himself. He is Hitler, after all.

        It’s funny that Democrats and their MSM Propagandists think the American public believes this crap. Even with all the evidence to the contrary (Trump’s election).

      3. Well we all expect Democrats to increase spending. For some reason or another we still don’t expect Republicans to go along with it. Fool me 10 times, shame on all of us?

  25. Walmart shares jump following earnings beat and raised outlook

    I am going to laugh when 3rd Quarter earning do even better, in spite of a shooting, multiple threats clearing stores, and a guy testing the protections of the 2nd Amendment.

    I for one, spend a few thousand at Walmart last week instead of other stores, for food care packages.

    1. Was at my local Walmart Sunday, they had a cop car parked right in front and two officers inside near the checkout aisles.

      Now, I’ve lived places where there was a police sub station in the Walmart, but here in east TN that was unusual.

  26. “The War on Terror will now officially be fought on American soil, too.”

    A libertarian might argue that that is the one and only place it should be fought.

    1. These libertarians at reason believe we should actually give them visas so they come here.

  27. Danny Masterson reportedly accused of stalking rape victims, calls suit ‘beyond ridiculous’

    I for one cannot wait until they RICO that Cult of Scientology for all the illegal harassment they do. Gives real religious institutions a bad name. Well, not the Catholic Church.

  28. http://www.kshs.org/p/kansas-state-capitol-online-tour-tragic-prelude/16595

    Don Lemon goes full Kevin Spacey while living on the low down.

    1. Don Lemon bears an odd resemblance to John Brown.

      1. Except John Brown is white, like Jack Lemmon and Don Lemon is black, like Jim Brown.

        1. And lemons are yellow and browns are brown.

          Mind. Blown.

  29. Hickenlooper expected to end White House bid Thursday, sources say

    Wait, WAIT, wait. You mean Democrats jumped into the 2020 Democrat Primary without having a good plan to actually win?

    1. He was against marijuana when the people asked for it, and he was against marijuana after the people voted for it.

      1. But the fact is despite that opposition, he still did the best job of any governor so far in making it happen smoothly.

        He’s got the wrong personality for politics today outside CO. And he’s too wussy when it comes to public unions. But he’s one of the last examples of what used to be common in politics – a competent non-ideological moderate.

    2. There will never be a President Hickenlooper or Buttigeig, mark my words. Haven’t these guys ever heard of stage names?

      Or maybe the kids at their schools weren’t as clever at making up nicknames as they were at my grade school.

  30. http://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/venezuela/article233947387.html

    Venezuela has lost as much as 20% of its population. Good thing that wasn’t “real socialism” and things will be different next time because we will finally get the “right people in charge”.

    1. It will be great once Boxer gets that windmill built.

    2. Yeah, real socialism would have lost them 30% of the population. It’s like they don’t even know how to purge right.

      1. Real socialism shoots people at the border before they can escape.

    3. Where will Americans go when America goes full socialist

      1. Gulags?

  31. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7353967/Did-Jeffrey-Epstein-portrait-Bill-Clinton-blue-dress-red-heels-NYC-mansion.html

    Jeffrey Epstein had a painting of Bill Clinton wearing a blue dress and red heels in his NYC mansion. The question is, did Bill do the modeling for it. I am guessing yes.

    1. That’s really something. This whole thing just keeps getting weirder.

      1. Check this out Zeb

        In 2010, film publicist and NYC power broker Peggy Siegal reportedly organized a dinner party for Prince Andrew at Epstein’s Manhattan mansion. In attendance were Katie Couric, Charlie Rose, Woody Allen, Chelsea Handler, and George Stephanopoulos.

        http://www.lamag.com/article/jeffrey-epstein-hollywood/

        2010 was after he had been convicted of having underage sex slaves. And those people were still hanging out with him and going to his house for dinner. Rose and Allen are known perverts. But how the hell are Couric and Stephanopolis not being held to account for this?

        1. Its like getting drugs from the dealer.

          Once you have one that you can count on, you try to keep him.

        2. To be fair, Handler was only there for a waitressing gig.

    2. “Dammit, can’t you idiots do anything right? I told you to go in there and get that damn painting before the feds searched the place!!” — HRC

    3. I am guessing yes.

      I’m going to have to disagree. The face and hand almost appear to have been done by a different artist. Still, unless Epstein did it himself, he had to commission one, maybe two or more, people to do it. Which doesn’t make it less weird.

      1. Of all his creepy clients, he chose to hang Bill his Wall of Honor? Must be a highly valued customer.

  32. Trump hasn’t condemned China’s crackdown in Hong Kong because he made a private deal with Chinese President Xi Jinping to stay out of it.

    Did he tell Xi to wait until after the election when he’ll be more flexible?

    1. Trump isn’t trying to start a world war. Do you need any more evidence of his unfitness for office? The guy is a lunatic.

      1. Of course. And really it’s more about the trade negotiations than nuclear war, even though the thought is always in the background. I do wonder what Republicans would say if it were reported that Obama wants to stay out of the conflict because he made a private deal with the Chinese.

        1. Partisans are partisans. The issue is what is the smart thing to do. And I think staying out of it but using the threat of not to get something out of the Chinese is the smart thing to do.

        2. And you are right about Sarah Silverman, her original show was funny. I don’t think it was as funny as you do, but it was funny.

          1. I always found her a dick and farts kind of joker with not much more in the tool box.

            I remember her being one of the people, where I would comment “Why did they pick this person”?

  33. “What do The Rock, Pikachu, Jar Jar Binks, and Donald Trump..”

    I recommend the following presidential assignments

    The Rock – SECDEF
    Pikachu – Ambassdor to Japan
    Jar Jar Binks – Economic Advisor. I would have recommended him for ambassator to the U.N., but we all know what happened the last time he had a job like that.

    1. Chuck Norris – Homeland Security

  34. >>National Football League Commissioner Roger Goodell wants everyone to know

    smokin’ weed bad, slingin’ ‘caine good.

  35. That can’t be right- aren’t the Republicans the party of “fiscal conservatism?”

    You’d think that after decades Americans would wake the fuck up to realize the Republicans are far and away worse on fiscal conservatism. At least the Dems want to fund their pet projects.

    1. No they don’t. Notice something changed over the last year and the deficit went up 27%. The Democrats took the House. As bad as the Republicans are, and they are bad, the Democrats are worse.

      1. Just like with Bush the dem’s took over the last two years and what did we get the great recession

        1. And the deficit exploded. The deficit was coming down from 03 to 06.

      2. It’s really shocking at this point. It would be nice if there was anyone actually seriously suggesting a reduction in spending.

        1. They don’t care because the public doesn’t care. No one ever lost an election for running up the deficit. Hell, the democrats are not even pretending to care anymore. Running against deficits while pretending they cared used to be the Democrats’ move. Not anymore.

        2. Reduction reduction? Or smaller increase reduction?

          1. Fewer lesser dollars money than the predicted greater morer plan.

          2. Either would be nice at this point. Reduction-reduction would be better.

      3. It’s also pretty willingly ignorant of the larger picture. Nevermind that violent sociopaths are forcing people to run the free shit race or be relegated to obscurity, it’s the hypocritical candidates who vociferously oppose the free shit race but run anyway who are (equally) loathesome obstructionists.

    2. “aren’t the Republicans the party of “fiscal conservatism?””

      Comparitively? Yeah. Practically? No.

      And yours hasn’t been an insightful observation for decades, primarily because even R’s have given up on the idea.

      1. Fairly cleat explanation by Eric. I sent it to all my friends … plus the part Eric missed, the reason an inverted curve has always forecast a recession in the past,

        Prices are determined by the Law of Supply and Demand.
        There’s only one reason for long-term rates to sink below short-term. Investors and funds have lost all confidence in the future. Guess why?

        It’s not just investors. 60-65% of all Americans think America is on the wrong track. (That’s not ll from mounting fear of Trump’s policies. A minority want a more leftward direction, but much of that comes from the perceived failures of the GOP).

        Investors are also a bit spooked that Trump, in his first two years has already added more new debt than Obama did AFTER 8 years. (CBO 2024 forecast) and they just added more. It’s racing to a train wreck.

        Worse than Obama on debt despite inheriting the longest recovery ever — from Obama. who began with the 2nd worst recession since the 1930s. (Much of Obama’s s debt was actually created by Bush2’s TARP)

        Jimmy Carter is … not happy, but grateful. Soon, he will no longer rated as the worst President since Nixon.

        1. Dumbfuck Hihnsano claims that “wearingshit” is an Eric sockpuppet.

          1. Prices ARE set by The Law of Supply and Demand

    3. >>>aren’t the Republicans the party of “fiscal conservatism?”

      1996 wants its topic back.

  36. >>>Am I the only one who thinks a society of people of diverse national origin, living and working beside intelligent machines, sounds absolutely fucking amazing?

    probably not but you’re douchy for tweeting like it’s an original thought

    1. I liked him better on the cover of MAD Magazine.

      1. lol word.

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