In Learning Resources v. Trump, the Supreme Court invalidated President Trump's global tariffs by a 6-3 vote. Almost immediately, Trump held an impromptu press conference, in which he lashed out at the Court, and in particular two of his appointees, Justices Neil Gorsuch and Amy Coney Barrett, who joined the majority. The presser was classic Trump: angry, winding, but direct. First, he conveyed a truth that Republican presidents have known for nearly a century, but have rarely said aloud: progressive justices never break ranks when it counts, but conservative justices will invariably find the principle to do so. Second, Trump uttered another unspoken truth: Presidents fear that criticizing the Supreme Court may result in the Justices ruling against them. The Justices are supposed to rule without fear or favor, but they are still human and will invariably react to what they see as an overbearing president. Third, Trump now sees clearly the problem with those who advised him on his first batch of Supreme Court nominees. Rather than focusing on nominees who favored a strong, robust executive, they supported nominees who actually wanted to transfer power from the executive to Congress and to the courts. Should Trump have another Supreme Court vacancy, these three important lessons will inform his future decision.
Since the 1970s, the Supreme Court has had a majority of Republican-appointed Justices. Indeed, in 1991, eight of the nine Justices had been appointed by Republican presidents. Only Justice Byron White, a Kennedy appointee, was on the other side. Yet, the Court still leaned to the left. In Planned Parenthood v. Casey (1991), five Republican appointees voted to reaffirm Roe v. Wade. And even when the Court found a conservative majority, swing votes like Justices Sandra Day O'Connor and Anthony Kennedy moderated the outcome to the left. But the opposite effect seldom, if ever, happened. Over the past two decades, I have struggled to think of a decision where a Democratically appointed Justice cast the decisive fifth vote for a conservative victory. Justice Stephen Breyer, to his credit, cast an important vote to save a Ten Commandments monument at the Texas Capitol, but that narrow ruling was overwhelmed by a companion case from Kentucky that broadly expanded the Court's power to scrutinize religious displays. Justice Breyer also cast a key vote in a pair of affirmative action cases from Michigan, but there, too, racial preferences were largely upheld. And in NFIB v. Sebelius (2012), Justices Breyer and Elena Kagan joined the Chief Justice in holding that states could opt out of the Affordable Care Act's Medicaid expansion. But it has been reported that they did so as part of a compromise to avoid invalidating the entire program. Since Justice Breyer's retirement, I think the odds of compromises from the left are slim.
President Trump's press conference described this dynamic and used his own appointees as examples. Trump said, "The Democrats on the court are thrilled, but they will automatically vote no." Trump added that the Democratic appointees are "an automatic no, just like in Congress." How often do Democratic politicians break ranks and vote on principle? Republicans in Indiana voted against redistricting. Will any Democratic state legislatures actually vote against a Democratic gerrymander? Trump's analogy between Democratic politicians and Democratic-appointed judges has some merit. I struggle to think of any significant case where the Court's progressive justices cast a dispositive vote against the progressive side.
Trump continued that the Democratic appointees are "an automatic no, no matter how good a case you have, it's a no." I think Trump is saying what every Supreme Court litigator would quietly admit: in an ideological case, only three or four votes are really ever up for grabs, and they are all on the right. But Trump drew a contrast: "You can't knock their loyalty, one thing you can do with some of our people." In other words, the progressive justices never break ranks when it counts, but "some of our people," that is, the conservative Justices, do.
Trump also shone a light on an unspoken element of Supreme Court advocacy: you cannot say or do anything that could offend the Justices. Trump explained he kept his mouth shut: "I wanted to be very well-behaved because . . . I didn't want to do anything that would affect the decision of the Court, because I understand the Court." He does understand the Court better than most people might think. Trump continued, "I understand how they are very easily swayed. I want to be a good boy."
Trump, likely on the advice of counsel, was told not to say anything negative about the Court while the case was pending, lest he sway the decision. The implication here was clear: if Trump criticizes the Court, he is more likely to lose. Trump even acknowledged this point in his roast at the Alfalfa Club earlier this month. He quipped, "I had the nastiest, most vicious joke about John Roberts," but "if you think I'm going to tell that joke you can forget it." Trump said the quiet part out loud: "I'm going to kiss his ass for a long time." Well, at least for a few weeks. Now Trump can tell the joke.
Do you see the problem? Judges are supposed to decide cases without fear or favor. Whatever a litigant says about the judge should have no bearing whatsoever on the outcome of the case. But of course, every first-year law student knows this isn't actually true. The clear import of some of the commentary about Trump's press conference is that he made it less likely that the Justices will rule in his favor in future cases. Judges are human. Indeed, judges are even more sensitive than mere mortals. One does not become a judge by ignoring how the public perceives them. And even if the justices tell themselves that Trump's comments have no effect on their ruling, the public perception is that there is such an effect. And where did this perception come from?
I'll let you in on a little secret. Much of the commentary you read about the Supreme Court involves obsequiousness in an attempt to curry favor. Law professors, in particular, want to be held in high regard by the justices. After all, they want to be cited and have their students hired as law clerks. (I, for one, never hold back, even if there are consequences for my candor.) You wonder why Trump's lawyer told him to put a muzzle on it?
Finally, I think Trump is having a rude awakening about the Supreme Court nominees from his first term. While Trump is angry at Justices Gorsuch and Barrett, I think his ire should be directed at the lawyers who advised Trump to pick them. A flashback is helpful. Immediately after Justice Scalia died, Trump realized he had an opening. If Trump could convince conservatives that he could be trusted to appoint a conservative to replace Scalia, he could win the primary. Trump innovated the process by releasing several lists of potential nominees. (It is noteworthy that Gorsuch and Kavanaugh were not on the initial list.) But let's be frank. Trump didn't know the people on the lists. He worked with the names given to him. And Trump, unlike prior presidents, didn't have a firm grounding in constitutional law or what the Supreme Court did.
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