The Election Betting Markets Fell Short. They're Still the Most Flexible Predictor.
People with money on the line try harder than pundits to be right, and they adjust quickly when they've made a mistake.
Donald Trump
J.D. Vance Seized His Chance, but the New Right Had a Bad Night
Big-government conservatives underperformed across the country.
Yale Journal on Regulation Symposium on Peter Shane's "Democracy's Chief Executive"
Participants include Daniel Farber, Keith Whittington, Cristina Rodriguez, Lisa Heinzerling, and myself, among others.
Kari Lake's Election Conspiracy Theories Aren't Even the Worst Thing About Her
It's her willingness to wield state power to punish the ideas and groups she dislikes.
Conservative Republican Rep. Dan Crenshaw Says Republican Leaders' Election Denialism was "Always a Lie"
GOP politicians lied in order to exploit public ignorance. That dynamic is just one particularly egregious example of the broader danger widespread voter ignorance and bias.
Video of Federalist Society Panel on "What are the Limits of Executive Emergency Powers"
The panelists included Elizabeth Goitein (Brennan Center, NYU), Daniel Dew (Pacific Legal Foundation), and myself.
'Election Fraud' Can Become Our Awful New Hyperbole
If we go through one election cycle after another and every loser unjustifiably cries fraud, eventually the claim will cease to impress.
This Court Case Could Make It a Crime To Be a Journalist in Texas
Priscilla Villarreal found herself in a jail cell for publishing two routine stories. A federal court still can't decide what to do about that.
Free Trade Would Boost the Economy, But It's Not on the Ballot
Joe Biden adopted his predecessor’s protectionism, threatening our peace and prosperity.
The Lincoln Project Demonstrates How Anti-Trump Fixation Can Lead to Lousy Policy
Reflexive opposition to the 45th president was terrible for Covid policy and basic ethics.
The Paul Pelosi Conspiracy Theories Are an Embarrassment for the Right
The House Speaker's husband was attacked by a crazy home intruder. Why is Donald Trump pretending otherwise?
Why Are Democrats Still Backing Trumpists in GOP Primaries?
Democrats paid $435,000 to back a pro-Trump Republican in Michigan—nearly $100,000 more than the candidate himself raised.
Revisiting the First Trump Impeachment
New article in symposium on the law and politics of impeachment now available
This Election Day, Listen to the Betting Market Instead of Pundit Predictions
Over time, betting has been a better predictor than polls, pundits, statistical models, and everything else.
Ninth Circuit Refuses to Quash Jan. 6 Committee Subpoena for Kelli Ward's Cell Phone Records
A Ninth Circut panel split 2-1 over whether First Amendment concerns should prevent congressional investigatos from obtaining cell records for Arizona's Republican Party Chair.
What Happens When a County Employee Acts Like a Police Officer?
A highway engineer got qualified immunity for detaining drivers—despite not being a cop.
A Federal Judge Says Trump Knowingly Endorsed False Fraud Claims in an Election Lawsuit
Despite that evidence, it is hard to tell whether Trump actually thought he beat Biden.
Midterm Polling, PayPal, and Patellas
Plus: The editors consider Ye and social media, then field a question about the TARP bailouts during the 2008 fiscal crisis.
Justice Department Takes Aim at Judge Cannon
In its latest filing, the Department of Justice seeks to put an end to Judge Cannon's interference with the federal government's investigation documents kept at Mar-a-Lago.
Supreme Court Turns Away Trump Effort to Keep Government from Reviewing Documents Seized from Mar-a-Lago
An unsurprising development in the former President's latest legal doings.
Divided Government Is Good. In 2023, Bipartisanship Would Be Better.
From immigration to drug reform, there is plenty of potential for productive compromise.
Biden Chips Away at Trump's Deregulatory Legacy With New Gig Worker Rule
The administration's draft regulations expand and complicate who the federal government considers an "employee."
What the FBI's Mar-a-Lago Warrant Does—and Doesn't—Mean
Even if a warrant wasn’t the DOJ’s only option, its choice to go this route doesn’t signal—let alone prove—anything about the future of the probe.
American Elections Are a Mess, and They Always Have Been
The long, weird history of partisan electoral shenanigans
How Should Libertarians Think About Ron DeSantis?
Reason's Zach Weissmueller and the New York Post's Karol Markowicz talk about life under the most controversial governor in America.
Trump's Declassification Claims Are Implausible and Irrelevant
The potential crimes that the FBI is investigating do not hinge on the current classification status of the records that the former president kept at Mar-a-Lago.
The First Significant Lawsuit Challenging Biden's Student Loan Forgiveness Plan [Updated]
It was filed by Pacific Legal Foundation public interest lawyer Frank Garrison, and includes a novel strategy for getting around the problem of standing.
Putin's Push and Ponytail Solidarity
Plus: The editors engage in a full-throated denunciation of the CIA in response to a listener question.
Why the Political Grift Won't Stop
What unites Donald Trump, Black Lives Matter, Steve Bannon, and the Lincoln Project? They all got stupid rich by you being big mad.
The FBI Regains Access to Mar-a-Lago Documents That Trump Claims He Mentally Declassified
Even if Trump did declassify those records, the 11th Circuit says, he "has not identified any reason that he is entitled to them."
Most Americans Say Immigrants Make the U.S. Better. So Why Don't Politicians Do Anything About It?
Democrats pander to immigrants but do little to liberalize the system. Meanwhile, Republicans' hostility to immigrants has increased.
Eleventh Circuit Grants Stay of Trial Court Order Blocking Access to Mar-a-Lago Documents
An appellate panel thoroughly dismantles Judge Cannon's order blocking Department of Justice access to documents President Trump kept at Mar-a-Lago.
New York Attorney General Sues Trump for Fraud, Seeks $250 Million in Restitution
In a press conference, Letitia James accused the former president of routinely misstating the values of his properties for personal financial gain.
Judge Reviewing Mar-a-Lago Documents Complains That Trump Has Offered No Evidence He Declassified Them
In any case, that issue does not seem relevant under the statutes that the FBI cited in its search warrant.
A Senate Candidate's Belated Acknowledgment of Biden's Victory Is a Reality Check for a Trump-Dominated GOP
Until he won the Republican nomination in New Hampshire, Don Bolduc insisted that the presidential election was stolen.
Americans Reject Biden's Divisive Rhetoric
The president’s Philadelphia “threats” speech gets thumbs-down from the public.
Hiring Formerly Incarcerated People Is Good, Actually
Some conservative media outlets and politicians lambast the practice. But if you care about public safety, that opposition doesn't make sense.
Trump's Lawyers Say It's Not Clear Whether 'Purported' Classified Documents at Mar-a-Lago 'Remain Classified'
The former president's legal team notably did not endorse his claim that he automatically declassified everything he took with him.
Trump's Document Trove Reportedly Included Information About a Foreign Nation's Nuclear Capabilities
"Nuclear weapons issue is a Hoax," says the former president, who insists that nothing at Mar-a-Lago was actually classified.
Biden and Trump Stoke Division While Complaining About It
The current and former presidents offer dueling but equally apocalyptic takes on this fall’s elections.
Biden's Disturbing Speech Outside Independence Hall
Plus: The editors answer a question from a U.S. House candidate.
Three Points of Agreement on Democracy Protection
Sixth post in the symposium on the National Constitution Center "Restoring the Guardrails of Democracy" project. Edward Foley of Team Progressive highlights some points of agreement between the three reports.
In Philadelphia, Joe Biden Peddled a Competing Brand of Authoritarianism
The current president becomes what he criticizes by delegitimizing opposition.
Glenn Greenwald on the Deep State, Capitalism, and Identity Politics
"One of the things that the left and right have in common is an awareness that our government has essentially been co-opted by corporate power," says the Pulitzer Prize–winning journalist.
Biden's Student Loan Debt Cancellation is a Trumpian Abuse of Emergency Powers
Like Trump's policy, it's an illegal usurpation of Congress' power of the purse under a dubious emergency power pretext.
Trump Disregards Democracy, While Biden Ignores Its Dangers
The president's attack on the "extreme ideology" of "MAGA Republicans" elides the tension between majority rule and individual freedom.
Biden's Presidential Address Was Actually a Campaign Speech
Plus: Backpage appeal hits the 9th Circuit today, E.U. petition would ban anyone born after 2010 from ever buying nicotine products, and more...
The Biden Administration Is Taking From the Poor and Giving to the Rich
From student debt cancellation to green subsidies, the White House is giving handouts paid for by hardworking lower-wage Americans.
