The CDC's New 'Best Estimate' Implies a COVID-19 Infection Fatality Rate Below 0.3%

That rate is much lower than the numbers used in the horrifying projections that shaped the government response to the epidemic.


According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the current "best estimate" for the fatality rate among Americans with COVID-19 symptoms is 0.4 percent. The CDC also estimates that 35 percent of people infected by the COVID-19 virus never develop symptoms. Those numbers imply that the virus kills less than 0.3 percent of people infected by it—far lower than the infection fatality rates (IFRs) assumed by the alarming projections that drove the initial government response to the epidemic, including broad business closure and stay-at-home orders.

The CDC offers the new estimates in its "COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios," which are meant to guide hospital administrators in "assessing resource needs" and help policy makers "evaluate the potential effects of different community mitigation strategies." It says "the planning scenarios are being used by mathematical modelers throughout the Federal government."

The CDC's five scenarios include one based on "a current best estimate about viral transmission and disease severity in the United States." That scenario assumes a "basic reproduction number" of 2.5, meaning the average carrier can be expected to infect that number of people in a population with no immunity. It assumes an overall symptomatic case fatality rate (CFR) of 0.4 percent, roughly four times the estimated CFR for the seasonal flu. The CDC estimates that the CFR for COVID-19 falls to 0.05 percent among people younger than 50 and rises to 1.3 percent among people 65 and older. For people in the middle (ages 50–64), the estimated CFR is 0.2 percent.

That "best estimate" scenario also assumes that 35 percent of infections are asymptomatic, meaning the total number of infections is more than 50 percent larger than the number of symptomatic cases. It therefore implies that the IFR is between 0.2 percent and 0.3 percent. By contrast, the projections that the CDC made in March, which predicted that as many as 1.7 million Americans could die from COVID-19 without intervention, assumed an IFR of 0.8 percent. Around the same time, researchers at Imperial College produced a worst-case scenario in which 2.2 million Americans died, based on an IFR of 0.9 percent.

Such projections had a profound impact on policy makers in the United States and around the world. At the end of March, President Donald Trump, who has alternated between minimizing and exaggerating the threat posed by COVID-19, warned that the United States could see "up to 2.2 million deaths and maybe even beyond that" without aggressive control measures, including lockdowns.

One glaring problem with those worst-case scenarios was the counterfactual assumption that people would carry on as usual in the face of the pandemic—that they would not take voluntary precautions such as avoiding crowds, minimizing social contact, working from home, wearing masks, and paying extra attention to hygiene. The Imperial College projection was based on "the (unlikely) absence of any control measures or spontaneous changes in individual behaviour." Similarly, the projection of as many as 2.2 million deaths in the United States cited by the White House was based on "no intervention"—not just no lockdowns, but no response of any kind.

Another problem with those projections, assuming that the CDC's current "best estimate" is in the right ballpark, was that the IFRs they assumed were far too high. The difference between an IFR of 0.8 to 0.9 percent and an IFR of 0.2 to 0.3 percent, even in the completely unrealistic worst-case scenarios, is the difference between millions and hundreds of thousands of deaths—still a grim outcome, but not nearly as bad as the horrifying projections cited by politicians to justify the sweeping restrictions they imposed.

"The parameter values in each scenario will be updated and augmented over time, as we learn more about the epidemiology of COVID-19," the CDC cautions. "New data on COVID-19 is available daily; information about its biological and epidemiological characteristics remain[s] limited, and uncertainty remains around nearly all parameter values." But the CDC's current best estimates are surely better grounded than the numbers it was using two months ago.

A recent review of 13 studies that calculated IFRs in various countries found a wide range of estimates, from 0.05 percent in Iceland to 1.3 percent in Northern Italy and among the passengers and crew of the Diamond Princess cruise ship. This month Stanford epidemiologist John Ioannidis, who has long been skeptical of high IFR estimates for COVID-19, looked specifically at published studies that sought to estimate the prevalence of infection by testing people for antibodies to the virus that causes the disease. He found that the IFRs implied by 12 studies ranged from 0.02 percent to 0.4 percent. My colleague Ron Bailey last week noted several recent antibody studies that implied considerably higher IFRs, ranging from 0.6 percent in Norway to more than 1 percent in Spain.

Methodological issues, including sample bias and the accuracy of the antibody tests, probably explain some of this variation. But it is also likely that actual IFRs vary from one place to another, both internationally and within countries. "It should be appreciated that IFR is not a fixed physical constant," Ioannidis writes, "and it can vary substantially across locations, depending on the population structure, the case-mix of infected and deceased individuals and other, local factors."

One important factor is the percentage of infections among people with serious preexisting medical conditions, who are especially likely to die from COVID-19. "The majority of deaths in most of the hard hit European countries have happened in nursing homes, and a large proportion of deaths in the US also seem to follow
this pattern," Ioannidis notes. "Locations with high burdens of nursing home deaths may have high IFR estimates, but the IFR would still be very low among non-elderly, non-debilitated people."

That factor is one plausible explanation for the big difference between New York and Florida in both crude case fatality rates (reported deaths as a share of confirmed cases) and estimated IFRs. The current crude CFR for New York is nearly 8 percent, compared to 4.4 percent in Florida. Antibody tests suggest the IFR in New York is something like 0.6 percent, compared to 0.2 percent in the Miami area.

Given Florida's high percentage of retirees, it was reasonable to expect that the state would see relatively high COVID-19 fatality rates. But Florida's policy of separating elderly people with COVID-19 from other vulnerable people they might otherwise have infected seems to have saved many lives. New York, by contrast, had a policy of returning COVID-19 patients to nursing homes.

"Massive deaths of elderly individuals in nursing homes, nosocomial infections [contracted in hospitals], and overwhelmed hospitals may…explain the very high fatality seen in specific locations in Northern Italy and in New York and New Jersey," Ioannidis says. "A very unfortunate decision of the governors in New York and New Jersey was to have COVID-19 patients sent to nursing homes. Moreover,
some hospitals in New York City hotspots reached maximum capacity and perhaps could not offer optimal care. With large proportions of medical and paramedical personnel infected, it is possible that nosocomial infections increased the death toll."

Ioannidis also notes that "New York City has an extremely busy, congested public transport system that may have exposed large segments of the population to high infectious load in close contact transmission and, thus, perhaps more severe disease." More speculatively, he notes the possibility that New York happened to be hit by a "more aggressive" variety of the virus, a hypothesis that "needs further verification."

If you focus on hard-hit areas such as New York and New Jersey, an IFR between 0.2 and 0.3 percent, as suggested by the CDC's current best estimate, seems improbably low. "While most of these numbers are reasonable, the mortality rates shade far too low," University of Washington biologist Carl Bergstrom told CNN. "Estimates of the numbers infected in places like NYC are way out of line with these estimates."

But the CDC's estimate looks more reasonable when compared to the results of antibody studies in Miami-Dade County, Santa Clara County, Los Angeles County, and Boise, Idaho—places that so far have had markedly different experiences with COVID-19. We need to consider the likelihood that these divergent results reflect not just methodological issues but actual differences in the epidemic's impact—differences that can help inform the policies for dealing with it.

NEXT: Libertarian Party Picks Spike Cohen as Its Vice-Presidential Candidate

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  1. Lolz.

    1. Are we allowed to say a bad flu season yet in comparison?

      1. You're clearly a Nazi.

        1. Killjoy is JFree

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        3. And a racist. Don’t forget that.

      2. Just you wait for that second and third wave!

        1. The second wave will be worse because people stayed inside and didn't get exposed and didn't get healthier to fight it off.

          1. Everyone still went to the supermarket - which is like a New York subway at all times thanks to the lockdown.

            So no, you’re wrong. Boot licker.

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          2. So … lockdowns forever?

            1. After the third or fourth wave, when all small businesses are destroyed, and the economy is completely controlled by the correct corporations and the government, infectious diseases will no longer be a concern.

              1. And all restaurants are Taco Bell. Do we talk about the shells now?

                1. Dr. Cocteau approves.

        2. All we need are some tasty waves and a cool buzz. We’ll be fine.

      3. Worst flu season since 1918-1919.

        1. Sure if you ignore 1957-1958, which had 116,000 deaths with half the population.

          They didn't lock down of course.

          1. So everybody died?

            1. Yep. That's why America is a depopulated wasteland today. If not for that and the Hong Kong flu of 1968 (100k deaths, 200m people) we'd have approximately 9 billion people in the United States.

            2. Not till the 37th wave.

          2. And '68-'69. And we had Woodstock.

      4. Too soon.

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      6. Only if wiping out Sioux City in three months is OK.

      7. No one tries to stop me.

      8. They are slowly working their way down to that They have to do the revisions in small steps to mitigate how bad this looks. They don't want to give any credibility to those who at the start said this was over blown BS and more like a harsh seasonal flu then a true pandemic. They're also hoping fro a stronger 2nd wave so they can go back to saying "we told you so" and start back to pushing for global mandatory vaccinations. They just need the time to get things back int motion; maybe have a few plains clothes representatives "accidentally' leak some nasty stuff in public areas with the intent of infecting as many as possible. Don't be surprised if we soon start to hear that there is some new even deadlier strain of the virus. There is way too much money to be made from a global mandatory vaccine as well as power to be gained from this to let it fade away. Those in power are going to push back, its just a matter of when.

        1. Well I'm not quite as conspiratorial, but I do realize that a supposed scientific entity like the CDC can't go from - the world's ending - to "whoops we overestimated". They realize that if they make a huge step and revise their estimates then it will be a huge backtrack in the eyes of the public and further damage their reputation. They haven't been doing well lately - first we didn't need masks, now, anything you can tape on your face including old underwear is A-OK. In fact, the entire enterprise of government is going to have a hard time swallowing that they were in essence wrong - or at least not nearly as correct as they thought they were - and the result is a trashed economy.

      9. You are allowed to be as stupid as you want, in a public forum. However, the flu doesn't kill 100,000 people in the USA in three months, while half the population is locked down and wearing masks everywhere.

        1. "Locked down" didn't really mean all that much. For most, it really just meant the closure of eat-in restaurants and bars, and you couldn't go anything but grocery shopping like you normally would. Everything else was still open, most commerce was still occurring, and let's not forget the mask debacle is relatively new.

          Second, we know that over half of the deaths in the US were in nursing homes, the absolute ideal place for covid to run rampant and kill. About a third of the country is 21 or younger, and 71% 54 or younger. Italy and Spain seemed to have the worst go in Europe - but again, very old populations with lots of comorbidities.

          To be clear, this disease is by-in-large one for the old, and those with multiple chronic health conditions. It's mostly benign for the relatively young, and the data bare that out. Would it not have been better to completely seal off nursing homes, than forcing them to take covid+ patients as was done in NY and NJ?

        2. Umm...not to be too much of a hindrance in your echo chamber, but if you combine flu and respiratory diseases, then in 2019 around 95,000 people died as per CDC. These deaths are not evenly spread through the whole year and peak during November to May. So, around 5-6 months.

          Meanwhile, Covid's "100,000" include 25% of "assumed Covid" deaths, and a non-trivial number of deaths casually marked by hospitals as Covid because there's a financial incentive to do so.

    2. Three words: THE DIAMOND PRINCESS.

      All of the necessary model parameters could have been known with decent accuracy months ago and in time to matter were it not for the stubborn refusal of European and American medical researchers to experiment on live humans.- some mumbo jumbo was given about a dead greek named Hippocrates. They even seemed unwilling to seriously evaluate the god given info from The Diamond Princess.

      Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and China reacted effectively and in time. Europe and America have not done as well - likely a million plus dead before this is over. Happily, COVID-19 is relatively benign. What if the next pandemic is seriously fatal?

      1. I've been preaching the Princess story from the beginning. There was never any real mystery about this disease. We had a controlled study right in front of us. Instead idiots relied on bogus modeling to excuse their tyranny.

        1. Yeah wearing a mask is just so hard.

          1. Cowardly piece of lefty shit, if you're worried about getting sick, crawl in a hole and stay there.
            Don't bother lecturing *me* about a mask; fuck off.

          2. Assume the position!

          3. The WHO and CDC and mainstream media said for a months that no one should be using masks.

          4. Wearing a gold star on your chest so you can be allowed to participate in commerce is just so hard.

            Tyranny is tyranny. If they can force you to wear a mask, they can force you to do anything.

      2. Exactly. Which is why this thing is driving me nuts. Half the country is running around in a panic, and the other is saying it’s a conspiracy and acting like asshats. Can’t we approach this in a non partisan manner? Be careful, deal with the extraordinary feature of the virus, that it is super contagious, without resorting to blind panic or cray cray thinking? I hope we learn from this as a nation, and world, so if this happens again we all act a lot more reasonably.

    3. Bullshit, CDC. It's already killed 0.15% of New York state with 12.3% of the population infected (antibody tests), so the actual fatality rate is around 0.0015 * 1 / 0.12 = 1.25% or 4 times the CDC estimate. And that's after all of the so-called overreaction. If NY hadn't "over-reacted", they would have run out of hospital rooms and staff.

      1. 0.15% of NY state? Not very good with math, are we?

  2. I'm saving the goodies for Tue morning.

  3. And I would be interested in the CDC's best estimate of anything, ever, why?

    Miami-Dade County, Santa Clara County, Los Angeles County, ....

    These places are somehow different from New York City. But how? Hmmm, think, think, think, ....

    Been reading a lot about vitamin D lately. Makes the stay-at-home orders seem all the more stupid.

    1. Yes, lots of other health and environmental factors to consider.

      But we all want to be like NY, right? At least New Yorkers think that.

      1. Not just NYers, every smug prog urbanist has held NYC up as a model for how we all should live-very few own cars, millions crammed into shoebox size apartments and subway cars, people pay outrageous taxes and costs just for the privilege of living in The City. Haven't heard much from them lately...

        1. Don’t worry. There gonna be out of their quarantine soon enough to tell us all how superior they are to the rest of us.

      2. Mostly De Blasio kept insisting that California and other sates were just two weeks behind New York numbers.

        1. And at least 80% behind the lies.

      3. You couldn't cut it there. Start spreading the news.

      4. NYC is an international gateway city. It was inundated with cases at a much faster rate than other places. Plus the population in NY and NJ cite areas is the densest in the country.

    2. The elderly are those most at risk. NY and a number of other hard hit areas ordered corona patients sent back to nursing homes to keep hospital beds open.

      1. Hospital beds that didn't end being needed anyways, to boot.

        1. Hospital staff getting laid off is just a right wing conspiracy to undermine how dangerous the Wuhan virus is.

  4. Well this article is all good news, it seems to me!

    1st Amendment... To heck w/all the stupid so-called "science" anyway!!! Does "science" dictate our rights, these days?

    "Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances."

    "...the right of the people peaceably to assemble..."

    WTF is with THAT?!?! What happened to this so-called "right" during all this time! We have our rights... Except when we don't? Is THAT it? What do our "rights" mean, then, anyway?

    1. It's obvious your concern for any relevancy is nonexistent.
      Fuck off.

      1. On the rag again today, Sevo? Are you ever NOT on the rag?

        Do you recall the awesome enchanter named “Tim”, in “Monty Python and the Search for the Holy Grail”? The one who could “summon fire without flint or tinder”? Well, you remind me of Tim… You are an enchanter who can summon persuasion without facts or logic!

        1. I believe Richard Pryor said it best, "bitch gonna bleed to death."

        2. It’s obvious your concern for any relevancy is nonexistent.
          Fuck off.

          1. It is obvious to all readers that you being on the rag is THE most important thing in your mind! All other things in the entire universe are irrelevant to Sevo, except that Sevo is on the rag! Happy on-the-rag life, Sevo! Let us all celebrate Sevo being on the rag!

            All readers everywhere (This is IMPORTANT, dammit!): PLEASE be advised that Sevo is on the rag! Sevo wants to let y'all know today, that she is on the rag, as usual!

    2. Right but you told us you eat shit.

      1. And you told us that you are a mucus vampire, and LOVE to suck the snot out of the noses and other orifices of people, animals, and slime molds, whether living or dead! Do you REALLY get any joy out of that? No? Then WHY do you keep on doing it?

        1. You goddamn autistic fuck - go embarrass your family or something. You’re not welcome here you shit brained commie.

          1. Hi Granite-for-Brains,

            I really, REALLY feel for ya, bro or bro-ess!

            To make up for my CLEARLY egregious offenses against you, I am willing to sing you a long-dong-song; a sing-along song:

            Cootchy-cootchy-cooo, Buckaroo!
            Don’t be sad and blue, Buckaroo!
            Sweet Little Thang, say “Goo-goo-gah-hah”;
            CAN ye, PLEASE, for Mama-Dadda-Ba-Ba?
            Put on a Happy-Baby smile, for a LITTLE while!
            Fend OFF my tears-of-the-Great-Crocodile!

            (If’n it ain’t enough, if ye will give me yer address… Did yer Mamma teach you that item yet? … Then I will PERSONALLY drive over to Your Happy House, and deliver a consolation warmed-up ba-ba to ya!)

            Now, I have NO “deep pockets” and I hate to bring this up, for fear of too-deeply “tapping” the pockets of…

            But… IF by any chance, my generous offer is NOT enough to assuage your DEEPLY offended feelings… And maybe you are seriously contemplating some SERIOUSLY destructive vengeance, such as Holding Your Breath till such time as the Very World Itself implodes… Then I Truly Beseech Ye, don’t DO that! Not quite yet! First, send an email to… I have written a draft for YE:


            Reason! SQRLSY One has HURT MEEE, Deeply! SQRLSY One has offered to sing ME some stupid, hurtful sing-along, ding-a-dong song, and to bring ME a warmed-up ba-ba, but it is NOT enough to make even the TINIEST dent in MY DEEPLY Hurt Feelings!

            Accordingly (with the writing-assistance of MY attorney), please be advised that the hurtful statements of SQRLSY One has caused ME to require, for MY “medically required” recovery:

            ’20 hours of self-esteem therapy

            ’32 hours of crystal-healing therapy

            ’34 hours of aromatherapy

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            ’17 hours of Government-Almighty-Loves-MEEE-therapy

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            That comes up to around-about $137,538.27! So PAY UP, or else!

            Yours Truly,
            A Truly and Deeply Hurt, Long-Suffering VICTIM!!!
            AKA, Granite-for-Brains

            1. Hey look the retard is spouting gibberish again.

              1. You are an enchanter who can summon persuasion without facts or logic!

                1. You already said that stupid shit in this thread. Now go play in traffic.

                  1. Not funny. "Dumb", in the words of a Great Writing Genius! Try, try again! One of these centuries, you'll get this skill mastered!

          2. I'll welcome you here, Squirrel. Even if you are mostly just weird and annoying.

    3. I'm sure you know, just reading your belly aching is tiresome.

      1. Let's all celebrate the demise of our Constitutional rights then! Let the party begin!

  5. The CDC's New 'Best Estimate' Implies a COVID-19 Infection Fatality Rate Below 0.3%

    Mainstream news outlets will begin reporting this on November 4th.

    1. It will be 200,000 dead by then, 100,000 today.

      1. 200,000 if the Democrats have their way and keep sending the sick into nursing homes

        1. I loved Cuomo stating it was Trump's fault he did that.

          Odd that ONLY Democrats did that if it was "Trump's idea" given that they ignore everything else he says. And that no Republicans really followed suit.

  6. Called it. Said this was gong to be less than 0.3% and more like the Hong Kong fly of 1968-70.

    Fuck all democrats and their whiny ass weak dick sucking supporters.

    1. Flu. Unlike the Spanish fly. Fuck autocorrect.

      1. Fly could be more dangerous.

      2. Spanish fly raped more women, but definitely not a murderer.

        1. You catch more Flys with honey.. But you catch more honeys being fly

    2. Cmon... we know JFree has been right every step of the way!

      1. Link to one post of mine where I've been wrong on the high side. Just ONE.

        Here's my earliest post afaik so you can bracket your search from Jan27 - where I project it in waves with the second bigger than the first. But even there, I UNDERESTIMATED the spread in the first wave. I thought then that only the second wave would turn global. Who knew public health was so utterly incompetent that it couldn't even do contact tracing and testing 101?

        You asswipe Trump-bots keep repeating some Big Lie technique as if repeating it perpetually makes it true. I suspect what really pisses you off is that I expect that second wave to start up right around election time - and yes it will affect how people vote.

        1. Every post between February until about 2 weeks ago dipshit. You pushed the IHME model. You fucking said covid would infect 100% of the population retard.

          1. As I said - link to ONE or STFU. All you ilk do is repeat your Big Lie tactic over and over and over.

    3. I had it pinned between .3-.5 after the initial bit of data came out. Enough to be concerned, but not to change everything. It's odd that this is even a news story because it matches what was and has always been the fairest assumption. How deadly are people being led to believe is this virus? Shocking to me how bad the "experts" are at interpreting data and how unthinking most of the population is

      1. Don't forget me. I had it right. I still can't convince most people that healthy people < 60 years old don't die from COVID in spite of many published COVID deaths by age records.

        1. I think studies have shown that it’s more about one’s health than their age. A healthy 70 year old (and there are some) is better off than an obese 50 year old.

          If you really want to get upset, think about how obesity has contributed to the death toll and, in turn, the decision to lockdown. We’re trapped in our homes because of someone’s inability to control themselves at the dinner table. Whereas you can’t blame an old person for being old, obesity is very much a conscious decision.

          1. We're trapped in our homes because public health "experts", politicians, oligarchs with agendas (like Gates), and a bunch of leftist Karens are totalitarian pieces of trash who have been non-violently tolerated for far too long

            1. I'm trapped in mine, but it is so much nicer than yours.

        2. Jeez, you predicted 100,000 dead by today, good job.

      2. That's about where I expected it.

        And also note the wide ranges between age groups!

    4. Hong Kong flu had an IFR of 0.5%. Which is about what I expected this to be... but 0.3% is still within my reasonable error bars. If it's really 0.2%, well, I'm happy to be wrong in that direction.

    5. You are a mosquito after all.

  7. How can you write this article and not mention that the governors in NY and NY actively killed their people? OF COURSE THE CFR IS HIGHER! They infected the people who were most at-risk!!!

    1. Don’t forget Whitless.

      1. I didn't, but the article specifically wonders why NY and NJ are worse off than most places.

        1. Incompetent elected leaders = why NY and NJ are worse off than most places

    2. It was in there. Near the bottom:

      "But Florida's policy of separating elderly people with COVID-19 from other vulnerable people they might otherwise have infected seems to have saved many lives. New York, by contrast, had a policy of returning COVID-19 patients to nursing homes.

      "Massive deaths of elderly individuals in nursing homes, nosocomial infections [contracted in hospitals], and overwhelmed hospitals may…explain the very high fatality seen in specific locations in Northern Italy and in New York and New Jersey," Ioannidis says. "A very unfortunate decision of the governors in New York and New Jersey was to have COVID-19 patients sent to nursing homes."

      1. In a just world, Phailing Phil Murphy and his little Health Commissar Troll will be personally held to account for the consequences of their decisions.

      2. I'd like to add a distinction that is still not being made in those reports.

        New York ordered nursing homes to accept COVID patients regardless of their ability to safely manage them.

        It's not like Florida kept COVID patients entirely out of nursing homes, they simply made sure that those patients only went to homes set up and equipped to properly handle them with cohort isolation.

        New York could have done this.

  8. So, in a bad year - we have had several in the last decade - the CFR for flu is around 0.2 to 0.3 and no one had to close churches or shutter barber shops. When the CFR reaches 0.4 however we close everything down because that extra 0.1 means we are all gonna die!
    The 9th circuit decision that closing churches is fine because this is an extraordinary event, like the Black Death or a 19th century cholera outbreak. Only, not so much. It is the flu with a media flack.

    1. I am sure politics, especially in an election year, and most especially in out hyper-partisan media-driven electioneering, had nothing to do with that.

    2. If a liberal court won't even defend the First Amendment rights of the citizens, they should be disbanded.

      1. Which is why the 2nd is the most important, all of the sudden.

    3. The flu, libertarians confuse it with corona virus because it's made in Mexico.

      1. "The flu, libertarians confuse it with corona virus because it’s made in Mexico."

        Cowardly pieces of lefty shit confuse their lies with information.
        Fuck off.

    4. You are forgetting about the contagion rate difference between this and a typical flu. That's a big factor in the total number of cases. Why is everyone so stuck on the fatality rate? Deaths = number of cases * fatality rate. If you have a high number of cases due to high contagion you are going to have more deaths. Duh.

  9. And here we have a splendid example of the conflict between science and politics and policy. Science is changeable, and willing to make mistakes, and get ever better. Policy is a best guess reaction to current (not ultimate) science, and politics is just my team vs. your team.

    Sad, very sad.

    1. Except for climate science. It's more like a religion, or a democracy driven by consensus.

      1. No, this is now just as much a religious issue as climate change, with much more immediate impact on the heretics who own small businesses.

        1. Yes. An excellent example of what the climate alarmists want, except they want the poverty to persist forever.

          1. Right but you told us you eat shit.

          2. Oh, they don't want all you reason boys to stay poor forever.

            1. Cowardly pieces of lefty shit confuse their lies with information.
              Fuck off.

    2. Actually science stands for something, a way to understand the universe. Politics is just attaining power and keeping it.

  10. So now the CDC is a bunch of Coronavirus deniers?

  11. Trump's fake malaria cure is obviously a Miracle Cure!

    1. Go fuck you daddy or some random 5YO, turd.

    2. Sure am glad your fellow travelers tried to nuke the economy. I hope your gambit was worth it when Trump gets re-elected.

      1. Killjoy
        May.24.2020 at 11:36 pm
        "Turns out it’s probably worse than useless...."

        Turns our Killjoy assumes turd is referring to something and then the TDS kicks in.
        Fuck off and die.

      2. Lol sockpuppet screech

      3. From the article:

        We did a multinational registry analysis of the use of hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine with or without a macrolide for treatment of COVID-19. The registry comprised data from 671 hospitals in six continents.

        I find this kind of comparison-based science absurd. I worked for a semiconductor company with multiple factories worldwide. We had tightly controlled and monitored processes. Yet, it was extremely hard to compare the same process across multiple factories because of so many confounding variables.

        This is junk science.

        1. Well, the Lancet did launch the anti-vaxxer movement...

  12. The first reports from Wuhan implied 3 weeks to contagion. It took two months to escape China to North America. The cruise ship full of closely crowded passengers and crew showed it wasn't deadly. The 80.5 year average age of death in northern Italy showed where the danger was. It was obvious then, as it is obvious now to more and more people, that this was not the deadly pandemic it was pitched as, and that the panic lock downs, social distancing, and forced shuttering of businesses, were all propaganda in support of further government control, and the economic destruction was the icing on the cake.

    1. "...The cruise ship full of closely crowded passengers and crew showed it wasn’t deadly. The 80.5 year average age of death in northern Italy showed where the danger was. It was obvious then, as it is obvious now to more and more people, that this was not the deadly pandemic it was pitched as..."

      And tin-pot-dictator wannabes like Newsom et al immediately opted to kneee-cap the entire economy, since PANIC!!!! as in JFree, Hihn, the scumbag bigot Misek, and other cowardly pieces of lefty shit.
      Thanks, assholes!

    2. It was already in the USA long before that. It didn't go from 2 or 3 cases of community spread on the West Coast to millions infected nationwide in a few weeks.

    3. Right but you told us you eat shit

      1. Can we please stop this schtick. Even if he is squirely, engaging him just ends up with the whole damn thread full of back and forth juvenile sniping.

  13. How do the get their numbers. Already they have about .5%. Are the assuming no more deaths.

    1. .5% of what? The 0.3% is the fatality rate for people who are infected.

      1. Yeah but lots more people were infected than we thought.

        Signed: a retard that doesn’t understand how percentages work.

  14. Keep it simple stupid.

    Last year the seasonal flu killed 34,000 US citizens.

    In two months covid19 has killed 100,000 US citizens.

    1. Theaverage flu season kills >60K, you fucking ignoramus, and we have vaccines for that.
      We'll keep it simple, so ignoramuses like you can understand: Fuck off and die.

      1. To be fair, the fact that we have vaccines for the flu is a factor that would be worth considering in how we respond as a society. If we didn't have vaccines, we might consider taking more precautions during flu season.

        But that's just playing devil's advocate. In reality, I think it's the inverse. Because we are so good at mitigating diseases nowadays, the idea of one we cannot mitigate scares us more than it would otherwise. That's only natural, I suppose, but it does mean giving up rights (likely some permanently, as I'm sure any apparatus the government devises to track people will stick around at least) is a tragedy.

        1. Since our Dear Leaders, and their media lackeys, have embraced the mandate of lying to the people (for their own good, of course), then why not lie about a vaccine? Add given the proven placebo effect, a fake vaccine, besides convincing the masses that they can forget about the corona virus and fixate on the next big thing, might actually have some positive health effects.

          1. And think of the money for Big Pharma!

        2. And the "vaccine" we have for the flu is a best-guess and is estimated to only be about 40 percent effective.

          1. And some years not even that. Still, since influenzas tend to have an R0 near 1.5, 40% would approximate herd immunity if everyone got the vaccine.

            Oh lord, I just realized they are gonna leverage this pandemic and the new "of it saves one life" rhetoric into trying to make flu vaccines mandatory, aren't they? I mean, I'm all for flu vaccines, but they shouldn't be mandatory.

            1. Yes, and yes

            2. "If it saves on life" then perhaps we should do lock downs every winter.

              1. If our ongoing policies are built around "saving one life" then abortions should be banned, forever.

        3. "To be fair, the fact that we have vaccines for the flu is a factor that would be worth considering in how we respond as a society. If we didn’t have vaccines, we might consider taking more precautions during flu season."

          Who is this "we" of whom you speak?

      2. As usual you’re full of shit.

        Over the last 9 years the average deaths caused by the flu have been 37,000.

        1. As ussual,
          "...In total, the CDC estimates that up to 42.9 million people got sick during the 2018-2019 flu season, 647,000 people were hospitalized and 61,200 died. That’s fairly on par with a typical season, and well below the CDC’s 2017-2018 estimates of 48.8 million illnesses, 959,000 hospitalizations and 79,400 deaths."

          And a scumbag bigot besides.

        2. "Over the last 9 years the average deaths caused by the flu have been 37,000."

          BTW, just so you'll know in the future, selecting a limited data set which fits your narrative is known as "cherry-picking", asshole.

          1. Taking the average of the available data isn’t cherry picking.

            Though it does support my comment.

            1. @Rob Misek
              May.24.2020 at 10:09 pm

              "Last year the seasonal flu killed 34,000 US citizens."

              As Sevo showed with a link to CDC figures, it was a bit over 61000. Let's be generous and say you were simply wrong, but the actual number weakens your point.

              "In two months covid19 has killed 100,000 US citizens."

              So, the virus started running through the US in late March? I bet we could find posts on this site from you blaming Trump for not taking action in January. So, which is it - two months or four months? Maybe five months if it got here in December? No need to answer, we all know it depends on how well it supports your comment.

              1. And how many of those 100,000 died with the virus, as opposed to from the chinaflu?
                Death rates have been over-reported, for various reasons.

    2. And about half of those were in nursing homes, which could have been prevented had a bunch of idiot governors not forced these places to take infected individuals.

      1. "We were just doing what Trump told us to do! Trump literally said that we had transfer coronavirus positive patients into nursing homes!"

        1. Naah. In Misek's case, it's gotta be The Joooze!

          1. But he’s a Jew, so he can say that.

    3. Yeah, turns out all those flu deaths people keep wanting to compare this to so badly (never mind that it's not instead of flu, it's on top of flu, and yeah, 2 months, not 12) aren't counted the same way that the COVID19 deaths are being counted.

      Those 35k to 65k yearly flu deaths are an estimate based on the counted flu deaths, a projection... counted flu deaths are more like 3500 to 15500 per year.

      And that counted number... that's the apples to apples with COVID19's tally creeping up on 100,000 dead.

      I'm sure someone's going to tell me to go F myself or something now... because of course libertarianism is about insults and blind tribalism, and not facing facts even when they don't make us happy, right? /sarcasm

      1. Your apples to apples comparison kind of falls apart due to the fact that anyone presumed (not even confirmed) to be positive for the virus is having their death attributed to the virus, regardless of what the actual cause of death may have been.

        A state senator in Minnesota, who is also a doctor, has already discussed how he has never put “influenza” on a death certificate as the cause of death, because he has never been encouraged to do so. That is not the case for this virus.

      2. And everything you just said was wrong. See Colorado's change to counting died of not died with.

        1. Feel free to read the linked study sometime, or, you know, just tell me "you're wrong" because it's more comfortable. Your call.

          1. You didnt link to a study idiot. You linked to an article. They were very clear to use the word article, not study. "Faust and del Rio wrote in a JAMA Internal Medicine Viewpoint article."

            Do you know what words mean? It is an opinion of two doctors dumbfuck. I can give you plenty of articles from doctors of different viewpoints.

          2. Killjoy
            May.24.2020 at 11:50 pm
            "Feel free to read the linked study sometime,.."

            Feel free to link a 'study', you cowardly piece of lefty shit. Or, just crawl in a hole and stay there. Forever.
            Hint, asshole: I am NOT responsible for your health. You're scared of catching something? Tough shit. YOU take care of that while I go about my life.
            Fuck off and die, slaver.

          3. She has a passion for evidence, data and public health. Molly Walker is driven by evidence, data and a passion for public health. Her prior analytical writing experience ranges from healthcare public relations to advertising media research, and she holds a B.S. in Advertising from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.

            Well, since her bio says “evidence, data, and a PASSION for public health” twice, effectively, in two sentences in a row, I’m totally gonna take that as more important than her BS in advertising.

            Are you DOL?

      3. COVID-19 is a serious disease -- if you're over 65 or have major health issues already. 83% of those hospitalized in New York weren't even working, so why shut down work places? 50% of them were staying home, so why make healthy people stay home? What happened to governing from the data?

        1. And how do you explain the seriousness of this disease among the older people in Taiwan, Estonia, Hong Kong, Japan, Vietnam, etc? Perhaps Covid virus is a bit racist against Americans? Or could it be that NYC's own medical and political realities have more to do with the abysmal stats than the virulence of the virus itself?

      4. To clarify your lie... this is the first time the CDC has told doctors and such to classify covid on a death certificate without a test. They do this for no other actual disease. They do not guess. But hospitals have been directed to do so. Theyve been given financial incentives to classify people as covid related with a 20% increase in payments above normal. Hospitals have backdated to last december for deaths with symptoms of covid, which the idiot claiming 2 months (oh you) lied about. The majority of deaths are elderly near death already. Pennsylvania's cover death average age is 80 for fucks sake.

        So yes, I'll tell you to fuck off with your scaredy cat idiocy.

        1. Our median age in Ohio has crept up to 81 now. 53% of all deaths are 80+.

          1. I don't car if the median age is 15; if you're worried about catching something, crawl in a hole and stay there.
            Your health is your concern. Wanna quit your job 'cause you might get sick? Help yourself.
            Don't bother telling me I should quit mine.

      5. Killjoy
        May.24.2020 at 11:25 pm
        "Yeah, turns out all those flu deaths people keep wanting to compare this to so badly (never mind that it’s not instead of flu, it’s on top of flu, and yeah, 2 months, not 12) aren’t counted the same way that the COVID19 deaths are being counted."

        So we add the deaths from this to, oh, the deaths from auto accidents and make choices based on that sort of idiotic comparison?
        Did you drop out of school in the 3rd grade, you cowardly piece of lefty shit?

      6. Flu season is 5-9 weeks - so all those deaths in 2018 (65-80k) happened in that short amount of time. But thanks for showing everyone that you’re a blundering fuck whose only purpose in life is to parrot the elite’s talking points. Pat yourself on the back assfuck.

        1. Those deaths also happened despite vaccination!
          These lefty cowards are terrified if a flu which is not statistically separate from the seasonal flu deaths, even *if* you accept the NYC area claims as anywhere close to good data (they aren't; no statistician accepts 1/4 of the national numbers from one urban area without good explanation; we don't have any)

        2. No, flu kills people all year, but in late winter or early spring spikes to a much higher rate. Hence flu season.

      7. Killjoy
        May.24.2020 at 11:25 pm
        "Yeah, turns out all those flu deaths people keep..."

        No, it turns out your a cowardly piece of lefty shit and a liar besides.
        I can't tell, nor do I really care which lefty piece of shit has chosen the new sock; just make your family proud and the world a better place. Fuck off and die,

      8. It’s easy for us to make fun of you idiots and tell you to fuck off when you don’t even put effort in to your bullshit.

        Even if it was about total deaths vs total deaths, flu season goes from October thru March, not 12 months. The first case of covid in the US was January 21st, so your timeline of two months is half the actual time (we’ll just ignore the fact that it was almost definitely here before that).

        But it’s not about total deaths (mostly because we know the counting in both cases is bullshit), it’s about the death rate. And the actual death rates are damn close.

        Your insistence on pivoting to total deaths instead of the death rate now that it’s been shown to be pretty close to a very bad flu season is duly noted though, you disingenuous fuck.

        1. The first case we KNOW OF was January 21st. We were not testing specifically for COVID before that. Many people, including a hanful in my own family, were ending up at urgent care with terrible respiratory illnesses and flu-like symptoms that did not test as flu. Doctors just shrugged, prescribed a few meds, and sent people on their way.

      9. And more since you seem to be ignorant..

        Doctors have modified their reporting metrics for covid.

      10. No, if we counted flu deaths like we count Wuhan virus deaths, we'd have 150,000 flu deaths.

      11. So December to May is TWO months to you people?

        And you wonder why everyone laughs at you?

        Those 35k to 65k yearly flu deaths are an estimate based on the counted flu deaths, a projection… counted flu deaths are more like 3500 to 15500 per year.

        And you ARE aware that this is done with C19, right? That the "counted" C19 deaths number is nowhere near the estimates and the projections, right?

    4. Dr. Birx said that anyone who died with COVID is assumed to have died from COVID. Given that a high percentage of the deaths have been of old people infirm enough to be in nursing homes, where people tend to die pretty regularly even without a pandemic, it's probable that a lot of the dead attributed to COVID would have happened anyway.

      It was reported that the directors of some nursing homes have been listing COVID for pretty much any death in the last two months, even in the absence of any COVID tests.

      Hospitals are hurting, having had their lifeblood banned by the state governments in preparation for the scores of COVID patients that never came. Many are on the brink of bankruptcy. But for those patients they do have, they get several thousand more in Medicare reimbursement if they list "COVID" as cause of death. If they used a ventilator, they get even more. It's been reported that hospital administrators have been pushing doctors to list COVID as cause of death.

      While the government has been trying to tell us that the COVID death numbers are "probably even higher" than the official numbers, the reality is that they are probably overstated significantly. In Colorado, there was an outcry when an obviously non-COVID death was attributed to COVID because the patient tested positive, and as a result of pressure from the citizenry, they've changed their methodology... they're no longer using Birx's method, but are only listing COVID deaths where COVID was a major factor, not simply present. The deaths were revised overnight to be 25% lower. I'd bet they would go lower still if the "probable" COVID deaths (no test having been done) were restricted to those actually caused by COVID.

      Before anyone ever heard of COVID, this was shaping up to be a bad flu season, but somehow now the flu deaths have all but disappeared. So have viral pneumonia deaths (the usual kind that happen every year, apart from COVID). You could claim this was because of social distancing, but the COVID deaths have continued to rise even with all of the precautions in place, and one would expect the other flu-like illnesses to do the same. This year, anything flu-like is COVID.

      So, no, it's very doubtful that the real COVID death toll in the US is all that close to 100,000.


      1. The least biased way to estimate Covid19 deaths is to look at deaths in excess of the average of the past few years. Then the reported death count in the USA is about right, but reported deaths in Europe are low.

        1. Excess deaths is widely variant with a decently high sigma at the month time frame. A year is about what you need to estimate the excess death count at.

        2. Least biased perhaps, but still fraught with error. The emergence of COVID is not the only variable to be considered. There is the impact on death rates from lockdowns and travel restrictions too. Fewer automobile fatalities, but more suicides. Fewer drownings, but more drug overdoses. Etc...

      2. You saw that here, in HyR, in the reporting on that young CBD patient who died of seizures. She and her family tested negative for Covid-19 but were presumed to have had it anyway (because they'd had flu-like symptoms earlier), and her death was presumed to have been caused by Covid-19. Of course she'd been taking CBD for years because of this rare seizure disorder.

        But that's not as bad as the friend of a friend of my friend whose death from falling down the stairs was classified as one of the two Covid-19 deaths in that county in Penna. because his corpse tested positive for it.

    5. "Last year the seasonal flu killed 34,000 US citizens."

      Counted the way we are counting covid deaths the flu kills 69,000 to 91,000

    6. I'll never understand how anyone is just fine with a 9/11 every single day in this country. There are a LOT more "vulnerable" Americans out there than most of y'all seem to realize. Many of them are children.

      You may be willing to sacrifice your own parents. I myself am not.

  15. I have been out and about a fair bit despite/because of the lockdown. Latest data shows that 35% are asymptomatic, so then almost two thirds should show symptoms, yet, I have not noticed really anyone coughing or sneezing more than usual, if anything, I've noticed less of it, and I have been paying more attention lately so that I definitely look twice when someone is coughing or sneezing. Now of course, it could be that everyone who is sick is in fact staying home as they should, but I would still expect to see more sick people if COVID-19 were as widespread as they say.

    1. 35% may be asymptomatic and test positive, but there's likely a MUCH greater %age of the population that has some cross-immunity already from other cold viruses (which is finally starting to get some attention - virus isn't so "novel" after all) - that never test positive, nor will likely have the specific antibody that's being tested for.

      Again - go back to the Diamond Princess cruise ship. EVERYONE on that ship was exposed - no doubt about it, but only ~700 of ~3000 ever had a postive test - and ALL were tested. This ship (and to a lesser extent the Navy ship) were the only models needed.

      Add in the virus was likely around in late 2019, and well, you can make your own conclusions about what's going on.

    2. Cold and flu season is over. The lockdowns should be ended tomorrow.

      1. The lockdowns, and the resulting knee-capping of the US economy should never have happened.
        The Ds and the DNC media was and is hoping to pin the entire mess on Trump.
        I do not suggest any conscious conspiracy here; that presumes cupidity where stupidity will do. The flu showed up, there seemed to be an opportunity to turn it into a crisis and blame it on Trump. No calls or emails required; shared narrative was sufficient.
        Pretty sure it will backfire; the Ds are still trying to tell us what to do and when, the Rs are suggesting you might have the ability to make those choices on your own.

        1. Yes, TDS at work. The only difference with this and with SARS, MERS, Ebola, and all the other diseases of the last few years is that Trump was tugging their chains and freaking them out. Whatever else Trump is, good or bad, he is also one of the best political baiters this country, or any other, has ever seen. He got a billion dollars worth of free advertising by baiting the media and their chosen politicians, and they still haven't figured it out. Along comes this and they grasp at a straw even weaker than their impeachment trash, take the pathetically weak chance to try to tweak Trump, and instead trash the economy, kill a few thousand old folks who wouldn't have died otherwise, and pretend they have done something noble.

          1. Right but you told us you eat shit

    3. One of the assumptions that seems to persist despite a lack of evidence is that this is highly contagious. In fact, much of the evidence points to it being much more difficult to transmit than previously thought. But we continue to discuss it as if it were highly contagious and easily transferred. Sweden, which supposedly has ignored all the advice of "experts" has around 7% of the population which has been infected. They spin this as either Sweden is nowhere near herd immunity (Mr. Bailey I am looking at you) or try to come up with some reason other than it is less contagious than originally thought to explain the discrepancy between actual data and the models. No one seems willing to admit the alternate hypothesis that it just isn't significantly contagious.

      1. Are you comparing population density and opportunities for interaction in Sweden overall vs. NYC? I think the average population density in Sweden is less than that in NYC.

        Different places should have different policies.

  16. This was the most blatant assault upon the civil rights of the American people we have seen in decades. Still, we were at a point where millions of people, millennials especially, had the opportunity to take an actual stand against tyranny. We were at a fork in the road. Instead of taking a stand, millions of people diligently, willfully, and compliantly surrendered everything.

    They gave right the fuck up.

    I'm sickened. These people deserve nothing but contempt, in my view.

    1. We know they spy on us, we know they track us, we know they think of us as enemy combatants.

      Most people don’t want to rock the boat unless shit gets really bad. And, as 9/11 showed, security theater makes your average human feel like things aren’t so bad while the government shits on your rights.

      1. Shit like this has me genuinely considering the merits of anarchism. If the government's default position is going to be complete totalitarianism, my position is going to be anarchism.

        1. Come to the dark side Geraje! You’re the kind of shitposter we need.

          1. Another month of lockdowns and it's Molotov cocktails and mohawks for me …

    2. Not only have they surrendered, but they attack and malign those of us who have not. They proudly put on their face diapers even when or where they were not required by royal decree, seeing them not as the shameful symbol of servile governmental genuflection that they are, but as beacons of virtue.

      I expect the Europeans to not understand why we would protest against lockdowns, but I do expect better from Americans. We're all supposed to have a spirit of defiance of the government within us, and a reverence for the principles of liberty even when inconvenient, and even when we've let the media and CDC scare us.

      Instead, far too many Americans (nominally at least) take pride in how quickly and completely they surrendered to our so-called public servants. Not only are they not ashamed of their cowardice and subservience, but they're proud of it.

      I don't want to be a subject in yet another European social democracy. Clearly, a lot of people in the US do. Good news, grovelers! There's plenty of social democracies in Europe... place is lousy with them! Take your pick, then take a plane, and let us both forget you were ever my countrymen.

      1. Americans adopted safety measures voluntarily to a great extent. The governors, however, freaked out about getting blamed for many deaths and took the path most helpful TO THEM. A measured response was only attempted in a few places so our chance to develop herd immunity was squandered, and we may pay with a worse second wave.

        It ain’t over til it’s over.

      2. People of an older generation, like Helen Thomas would express a nostalgia for WWII. Not the fighting, but the shared deprivation and national purpose. These people have always existed among us, but I had thought that the US had more than enough independent minded curmudgeons to keep those sentiments in check. Now, I m not so sure.

      3. I wish politicians would give speeches like this.

      4. And that spirit of defiance has gotten us 25% of the world's deaths with 4% of the world's population.

        Good job everybody! USA!

  17. How do any of these numbers jive with
    US tested positive: 1,686,436
    US fatalities: 99,300

    99,300/1,686,436 = 5.88%

    Can anyone explain this me?

    1. There is a significant portion of the population asymptomatic and not tested (I think way over 35%), or possibly already cross immune. This was somewhat validated with antibody testing at a number of different locations, and all results have pointed the same direction.

      There are really only 3 possibilities for this thing:

      1. Extremely contagious - not that deadly.
      2. Not that contagious but deadly (meaning the 5% is somewhat accurate)
      3. Both.

      It can't be #3 or you'd see body bags piling up. Given the cruise ships (the only "models" we ever needed) I think #1 is correct - but that the exposed positive/antibody/cross immune is much higher than 35%

      1. Are you expecting something out of a pandemic movie, or that documentary about the Black Death showing carts full of bodies?

        Go do your own look at the weekly death totals, and compare them to the normal "winners" like heart disease, cancer, etc.

        Of course, I'm sure I'll get at least one reply telling me that I'm an idiot for believing "the numbers".

        1. The number of deaths is correct, more or less. Some early deaths were missed and some later deaths were attributed to COVID-19 when it may not have been the primary cause. But the number infected is based on the number of people tested. The great majority of people haven't been tested. Many millions have been exposed already.

        2. "Of course, I’m sure I’ll get at least one reply telling me that I’m an idiot for believing “the numbers”."

          Perhaps, but this one will tell you that you are a fucking cowardly piece of lefty shit.
          Fuck off and die.

        3. Heart disease kills approximately 2,400 people a day.

          Cancer kills approximately 1,700 people a day.

          Still the clear winners. So you’re an idiot for other, much more valid reasons.

    2. The "jive" by taking into account every positive virus test (current infection) and every positive antibody test (past infection) and adding in estimated additional cases for the biggest possible number of infected people possible.

      Remember that this is the same CDC that told us not to wear masks, did everything they could to interfere with independent testing in the critical first weeks, etc... that we've seen article after article here criticizing for mission creep and bloated budgets and supporting the drug war... does all that go away now that they're telling people what they want to hear?

      1. "...Remember that this is the same CDC that told us not to wear masks, did everything they could to interfere with independent testing in the critical first weeks, etc… that we’ve seen article after article here criticizing for mission creep and bloated budgets and supporting the drug war… does all that go away now that they’re telling people what they want to hear?"

        As a cowardly piece of lefty shit, you should immediately crawl into the nearest hole and stay there.

    3. Yes. We can assume that there are at least ten times as many people who have had the virus but have not been tested and got over it.

      1. To clarify your point for his benefit (I'm sure you know this), this isn't just a guess. Random population viral tests and antibody tests both show 10-20x all over as a matter of course. This directly gives you a IFR of 0.3 to 0.6.

    4. Most of the supposed coronavirus deaths are bullshit. Anyone who died with ANYTHING even remotely similar or reminiscent of the coronavirus symptoms is marked down as a coronavirus death. No testing. Ignore the comorbidities. Plump the statistics!

      1. Right but you told us you eat shit

        1. So how's your "mucus vampire" gig coming along? Still enjoying all that snot-sucking?

          1. You really shouldn't use a sock to defend another sock.

    5. Your denominator is Case Fatality Rate, CFR, the number of positive tests. Sullum’s is the Infection Fatality Rate, IFR, the number of people actually infected. Since most Infections are mild, many won’t ever get tested and then don’t count as Cases.

    6. Everyone wants to reduce the denominator. So lets use NYC

      ~24,000 deaths in a city of 8.4 million means that if every single person (100%) have been infected the IFR would be 0.28% As per the commentary above. New York just released numbers for serological testing in NYC of an infection fatality rate of 0.6% as per the article. Way worse than the flu.

      The bottom line for most of the commentary is to reduce the IFR. This has the pretense of diminishing the apparent need for public health measures that may cause economic pain. Of course few are willing to come out and say how much pain is tolerable but I would suspect that the answer is none. Indeed Mr. Sullum writes of "....hundreds of thousands of deaths—still a grim outcome, but not nearly as bad as the horrifying projections cited by politicians to justify the sweeping restrictions they imposed." The horrifying projections are about 2X higher and still within the CI of the analysis.

      In the nihilist libertarian world, market idolatry is all that matters. The common man will figure out the answer for himself and self only. Everyone else can drop dead, literally.

      1. It's not market idolatry. Nor nihilistic. It's the recognition that economics, society, and humanity are not either/or, but one in the same. That "existing" is not living. That subsisting on government handouts of $800 a week—paid for by the productive classes—to stay inside and play video games, watch Netflix, and order out from Grubhub (those expendable essentials, don't cha know!), is not the epitome of human endeavor.

      2. Regarding your last paragraph, and in case you're interested...

      3. "...In the nihilist libertarian world, market idolatry is all that matters..."

        In the murderous lefty world, power is all that matters.
        Fuck off and die.

  18. And yet the "data driven" California response continues to ignore all the data and stick to the 4-phase plan for lifting the lockdown when there never should have been a lockdown to begin with.

  19. I wish we could have a grown-up discussion about measured responses, instead of a constant argument between the Whitmers of the world and the Trumps of the world, without the name-calling and the nonsense and the tribal mud-slinging.

    1. Killjoy
      May.24.2020 at 11:56 pm
      "I wish we could have a grown-up discussion about measured response..."

      We can.
      Cowardly pieces of lefty shit like you should crawl into a hole and stay there.
      Your health is your concern, not mine. You're worried about getting sick? OK, fuck off to someplace where you feel safe. Don't bother *ME* with your concerns.
      That's "adult"; your whining is certainly "juvenile" at best, perhaps "infantile"; the world isn't your mommy, asshole.

    2. Concern troll is concerned.

    3. Killjoy is a Whitmer staffer (not Whitmer herself, she’s at her vacation home in northern Michigan) who doesn’t understand why people would respond to tyranny with name-calling.

      Xer’s gonna be really confused with what is coming next.

    4. When you graduate middle school and actually attempt to read and understand what you link to, then maybe I will talk to you like a grown up.

  20. "I wish we could have a grown-up discussion about measured responses"

    The time to do that was back in February.

    1. Indeed. Although by discussing it now MAYBE we can prevent any attempts at a second wave of lockdowns if a second virus wave appears when the kids go back to school.

      Those who do not know history are doomed to repeat it.

  21. Everyone, especially the politicos, wants that denominator to be as large as possible. Given that the CDC has conflated the different types of tests does not give me confidence in their number. I would like to think not but I smell a political rat.

    The IFR from serology studies around the world had been in the range of .12 - 1.1%. The issues with the serology tests are noted and they will inflate the infection rate.

    Yes there may be regional differences and there may be differences in local responses, the fact is that those responses blunted the course of the infection. California started very early with the lockdowns and perhaps its better experience is to be considered relative to New York which was slower on the uptake. Even a week matters. Targeted interventions in high risk populations (eg nursing homes as in Florida) are also useful.

    SAR-COV-2 is not the flu, it is worse. Even with this lower revised IFR of 0.3%, it is, 3 times worse at a minimum. The IFR for seasonal flu is in the range of 0.04 - 0.1% . Even with an IFR of 0.3%, in an unprotected population, that is many hundreds of thousands of deaths. Fully fledged this virus will ravage this country and frankly people are talking and acting like its over. It is not.

    Any good data will hopefully guide policy decision but the simple equation is R0=Beta * Tau. R0, the basic reproduction number is driven by Beta (contacts per unit time) and Tau which is the viruses infectivity period in either symptomatic or asymptomatic people. Thus keeping your distance from other people and quarantine. Such a strategy works in virtually every disease setting when applied.

    The PHS act of 1944 empowered the federal government to protect the public from communicable diseases entering this country from foreign soil. The tools of social distancing and quarantine are blunt but effective and objectively necessary.

    Case in point nursing homes. Note that the people in nursing homes are not running around getting the disease. It is being onboarded by staff or visitors. Obviously the nursing home occupants right to live disease free is of no concern to the people who are acting as vectors.

    To say that people will self moderate and self quarantine is to reject the observation that quite a large amount of people could give a shit and will not be bothered. Freedom to get the disease and freedom to give it to someone else. Nihilism at its best.

    1. Not .3% "at a minimum": try "at a maximum". Every study brings it down and down. By the time this is over, it will match the flu.

    2. You're also wrong about nursing homes. In NY and some other states, nursing homes were forced to accept old patients who were known infected -- there's your source. Note this was long after the data showed old people were most at risk.

      And you are also wrong about people "se;f moderating and self quarantining" -- people were doing all that and social distancing before governments and stores mandated it.

      You really need to stop thinking the worst of people. Just because you fucking statists think everybody else is naive, ignorant, selfish, and otherwise an idiot, does not make it so. People have shown time and again that they will do the right thing, whatever that is; the problem is you fucking statists keep changing what the right thing is, and real people, who know how to think for themselves, start ignoring you and figuring out things for themselves. They don't always get it right, but government never does.

      1. You can both be correct = patients KungFlu+ and outside people (staff, visitors) KungFlu+ both carried KungFlu into our nursing homes. In the case of NY & NJ, this is the likeliest scenario.

        What really pisses me off alephbet, is the data and science were there. It was clear in early March that nursing homes could incubate KungFlu like fire (see Italy, Spain, WA - the data were there for all to see). Despite the data, the fucking Progtard governors of NY and NJ both decided to force nursing homes to take in KungFlu+ residents. I cannot believe the outright stupidity of this decision. The deaths of thousands are on their hands as far as I am concerned. May they never sleep another peaceful night in their lives. Even worse...These two Progtard fuckers just stood by and watched it unfold in slow-motion, and did nothing to change their idiotic policy for weeks! Can you believe this shit?

        In a just world, we would remove the governors sovereign immunity, and let people who were directly impacted by their stupid decision sue them for damages. Their actions were beyond grossly negligent, but not malicious.

        Maybe in the end their actions did not break any law, but God damn it, these two have killed thousands by the consequences of their decisions that were not based on the data and the science; no, their decisions were based on their warped progressive ideology.

    3. Your last paragraph is disproven by mobility data, as people did, in fact, largely self-quarantine before the orders went out.

      That said, you kinda glossed over a point in your favor: COVID-19 is significantly more infectious than the flu, too. Being conservatively three times as deadly and twice as infectious as a bad flu season where the vaccine isn't particularly effective, you get about 9x the deaths: (((1-1/2.5)*.003)/((1-1/1.25)*.001)=9

      So without mitigation, these numbers give you about 600k dead, and, given the higher infectivity, that happens quickly. Additionally, you could speculate if the IFR wouldn't be higher without mitigation due to less time for doctors to find treatments.

    4. "right to live disease free"

      Not a thing.

      You speak of nihilism immediately after expressing the most nihilist idea possible - that of life without risk, without death.
      If you desire not to be, as is sensible in your position, you may cease being at any time you summon the courage to fulfill your desire.

    5. Keeping the patients in nursing homes and other highly vulnerable individuals quarantined (but not by governmental fiat at any level), while letting anyone of pre-retirement age, those who are far less likely to have a severe outcome, continue to live our lives and gain that herd immunity, would have made sense. I bristle at my own use of the word "let," as government shouldn't have the option to NOT "let" any of us live our lives as normal, but it is what it is, and the argument that none of this should have happened because that's not the role of government doesn't convince many. Sadly.

      Quarantining everyone just kicks the can down the road... it reduces the odds of infection per contact with a carrier, raising the mean time before infection. At some point, though, you'll get it... so will I, and so will everyone else, unless herd immunity has been reached. Since we're isolating everyone, we're in essence isolating no one-- we're slowing the building of herd immunity exactly as much as we are slowing COVID deaths, and the result is that we've just put off what would have happened this month to next month, or maybe the next. As long as herd immunity and COVID deaths rise together, we're not changing anything but the date of each COVID death.

    6. Nah, this is less worse than the flu for the majority of the people. It mostly affects older people, and very little younger people.

      .3 IFR isn't that bad. There have been worse flus (1957-1958) that have been higher.

      This is so overblown.

    7. You’re supposed to quarantine sick people, not the healthy masses.

      1. Locking down the sick = quarantine.
        Locking down the healthy = tyranny.

    8. " Note that the people in nursing homes are not running around getting the disease. It is being onboarded by staff or visitors."

      Or newly admitted residents - who often come from the hospital. And likely not from visitors since in most places they've been on lockdown to any unnecessary outsiders for at least the last two months.

    9. "Reason4thinking"

      Why is it that lefty trolls chose handles claiming to be 'thinkers' or some such and end up spouting CNN-level bullshit?
      Twit ought to be in jail for false advertising...

    10. "The tools of social distancing and quarantine are blunt but effective and objectively necessary."

      Ipse dixit.

  22. Can someone please point me how to move my cash and self out of this country?

    1. You'd have to tell us where you think you are going.

      1. No idea, preferably English speaking retirement like the Philippines. I need a way to move money without it getting flagged on the way out.

        1. You can't = move money without it getting flagged on the way out

          It will get flagged every time. Don't try to get around the law. If you're serious, you pay the fees, and you follow the law. Getting 'cute' is how you fuck yourself.

    2. I can, but this depends on what you want to do, vis a vis citizenship. Are you renouncing?

      1. Yes - I won’t be coming back.

        1. In that case, Singapore is the place to go, assuming you have some coin. What you need to do is prove to the Singapore authorities you are self-sufficient, and you're in.

          You buy a place. You get a passport with another country (there are several). Then you leave the US. Once settled in Singapore, and you have another country passport, you visit the US Embassy, announce your intent to renounce citizenship, pay the 3K fee, and that is it. You are no longer American.

          I strongly advise that you do not formally renounce citizenship.

          1. Hey what happened with Chad Elwartowski? He posted here few years ago. Thailand. I think he and his girlfriend got away. Good.

            And where is Mcafee?

            I have to agree with -XY. For most of us there is no escape. You can retire to other places with lower cost of living. You can put money in trusts in South Dakota and other places if you have that much.

            My plan is to write the last check to the undertaker and that should bounce.

          2. If you're not a big fan of tyrannical democracies, Singapore is not the place to go.

    3. If you aren’t smart enough to figure that out for yourself, you were never smart enough to amass any cash.

      1. Well I just started thinking about so cut me some slack dick.

  23. "By contrast, the projections that the CDC made in March, which predicted that as many as 1.7 million Americans could die from COVID-19 without intervention, assumed an IFR of 0.8 percent. Around the same time, researchers at Imperial College produced a worst-case scenario in which 2.2 million Americans died, based on an IFR of 0.9 percent."

    Notice that still gets you about 600k dead in those models. The real issue here is that such models assume no innate mitigation factors, and thus settle at herd immunity numbers around 60-70%. History shows us this is unlikely. With or without government orders, in a bad outbreak, people start to take precautions (as well they should). You can, I suppose, debate to what extent those orders were effective and if that justifies they intrusion on liberty, (I think they are very slightly effective and it doesn't, but there are still a lot of unknowns in the former question and the latter is an opinion), but 2.2M dead was just never in the cards.

    1. These models are broken. Stop relying on them.

      1. Not so much the models, but the assumptions in them.

        All models are wrong. Some are useful.

      2. That's what I said, isn't it? Models are only as good as their inputs, and the lack of natural mitigation feedback in the models makes them non-predictive.

  24. Frankly, I have nothing to contribute to this argument, so I'm just gonna wait a year or two for the final numbers to come out.

  25. Why would you but any weight on numbers from a federal resource that has been under immense pressure from the government to downplay the pandemic? Other countries, with better health care and an earlier onset of COVID-19, report higher CFR numbers across the board.

    Also, historically the CFR tend to be underestimated. Compare to SARS, where it was reported to as low as 3-4% during the epidemic, but it turned out to be as high as almost 10% in the end.

    1. ....under immense pressure from the government to downplay the pandemic?
      Is today Opposite Day?

      1. You mean opposite of the (normal) Opposite Day?

        That would make it a truth day and I’ve never seen one of those before.

    2. You may want to learn the difference between IFR and CFR before you wade into the discussion next time.

      1. What's there to learn? It's not like the difference is some real hard-to-grasp sciency talk. Other countries report, of course, higher IFR numbers too.

        1. Yet you seemed to confuse the two by posting confirmed numbers and asking a question about the IFR.

    3. "Why would you but any weight on numbers from a federal resource that has been under immense pressure from the government to downplay the pandemic?"

      Yeah, that's the reason the federal government is *paying* for deaths diagnosed as COVID-19, right?
      "PolitiFact: On hospitals and the possible financial incentive of COVID-19 patients
      Medicare is paying a 20 percent add-on to its regular hospital payments for the treatment of COVID-19 victims. That’s a result of a federal stimulus law."

    4. "OLI" you clearly dont understand IFR vs CFR.

      SARS IFR was under 0.4%, not "10%"

  26. Asymptomatic infection, meaning your immune system dealt with the virus before the infection got out of hand, might also indicate that many people carry at least partial immunity (or immune recognition) due to previous exposure to other, similar corona virus.

    Because, while a different strain , COVID 19, is likely mostly the same as all the rest.

  27. Dr. Robert B. Strecker and Attorney Theodore A. Strecker submitted the Historic Document, "This Is A Bio-Attack Alert", March 28, 1986, in attempt to have the CIA, FBI, Congress, Senate and President of USA, stop the intentional creation & spread of AIDS/HIV, Cancers and other Diseases, spread through Vaccinations Programs. None of this COVID-19 Bioweapon would be going on if there had been an effective response to Protect Americans. Look up Dr. Robert B Strecker, or This Is A Bio-Attack Alert on Archive Dot Org.
    UMOJA Research Private Health Research 1986-2018

    1. And Elvis' alien love child kept them from doing so, right?
      But what about Hitler and Nixon in Guatemala in '56? What about THAT???

  28. Tyranny, thy name is Democrat.

  29. So as many of us suspected for a couple of months. Marginally worse than the flu and even those .2/.3 figures will drop a tad with better treatment.

    One thing I learned is that progressive blue states run by Democrats supposedly the 'smartest people in the room' did the absolute worst things while dumb hicks from red states approached it with common sense. WE QUARANTINED HEALTHY PEOPLE. Let that sink in.

    Canada is no better. Doug 'Mr. Emergency' Ford is screaming the numbers are trending in the wrong direction now. NO SHIT fathead you're testing more and people who were ludicrously in isolation are coming out. How about you calm the fuck down and actually lead instead of pant shitting and scaring people you CINO (conservative in name only)?

    We spent trillions and ruined millions. Not even Kafka can make sense of the surreal and stupid response by all countries except for Sweden and South Korea.

    I'm thoroughly disgusted by how all of this went down. From Day 1 I smelled hysteria.

    The question now becomes will people - mostly progressives of course because that's what they do. They follow orders and not science - finally calm down and quit it with the kabuki theatre and screams for ineffective mask wearing and their fetish of controlling people through social distancing?

    1. Re South Korea. They're now requiring everyone register at bars and to wear a mask. Still no shut down though.

      Hope that doesn't come here.

    2. "So as many of us suspected for a couple of months. Marginally worse than the flu and even those .2/.3 figures will drop a tad with better treatment."

      Pretty sure those numbers will drop precipitously as the NYC stats are examined by competent people.
      There is simply no way that a single metro area accounts for ~1/4 of the national deaths *attributed* to the flu absent horrendous (government) mismanagement of the problem or outright lying.
      Statistics don't lie; the bell-curve is fact. Politicians DO lie, everywhere and always.

  30. I assume the sub 0.3% mortality rate is on the general population, which includes older people with serious underlying health condition. What's the mortality rate on relatively healthy people?

    We dismantled the economy over a virus that had .0000001% chance killing who's not a sick grandma? The worst thing that could be happen for most people is breathing problem that requires hospitalization, but even that concern was proven to be overblown?

    1. "...We dismantled the economy over a virus that had .0000001% chance killing who’s not a sick grandma?.."

      All in the hopes that CNN, MSNBC and ABC could somehow claim 'Trump did it!!"
      Again, I do not presume any sort of active conspiracy; it was not required. Stupidity will suffice.
      All three (and more) remain embarrassed that Trump proved they didn't have a clue as to what their audience (outside of the blue cities) thought; they *knew* that the hag was going to be elected!
      And Trump jammed it down their throats.
      They have not forgotten; they remain pissed, they don't care if their fanning of the flames knee-caps the economy for years to come; they get their paychecks, and screw the hourly workers.
      Like Biden's racist claim to know what 'being black' means, I'm guessing it'll be four more years of Trump and RBG gets plugged in the ground!

  31. The left wing twitterverse take on Covid-19 (mortality rate of less than 1%) is truly something to behold. These people literally believe someone not wearing a mask outside is akin to them pointing a gun at someone. They applaud NY lunatics who berated and chased a maskless woman outside of the grocery store.

    They trumpet "your freedom doesn't trump my safety" rather proudly. They're part of the collective, and all pretenses are out the window. Calling them "Karens" as if they were only nagging housewives minimizes the true danger these cretins pose to our nation.

    1. I now have a mask which I put on just before opening the door of an establishment, and remove immediately after leaving; it is the stated legal requirement, and I can understand the retail outlets complicity; the city business agencies could well make it hell on them.
      But last week, as a (cute) gal rang up my stuff in a Safeway, she took off her mask an tossed it aside.
      The start of a real 'resistance'?

    2. I have a lestist friend who basically says that if you don't wear a mask, you will die. There's no arguing with idiocy of that magnitude.

    3. They are both Karens and the Borg.

    4. People overdo it both ways. Risk of contagion is related to time of exposure, distance and ventilation. There's lower chance of getting covid from touching a surface than from breathing in droplets some sick (or contagious although asymptomatic) expels.

      I wear a mask where ever I'm inside a public space, like a store. I leave the mask off outside unless it's a crowded sidewalk.

  32. Whoever did the math was wrong in their figuring - when figuring percentage one must take the number of deaths and divide that number by the nation’s population, it should have took 98,220 and divide it by 331,000,000 than multiplied by 100, it would give the number in a percentage form. - Which should look like this (0.02967) %
    According to the COVID-19 Dashboard by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University (JHU) the death count for the U.S. is at 98,220 as of 5/25/2020,

    If it were indeed .3% as shown, the death count would be 993,000 which is not the case.

    1. no. The author is specifying IFR (Infection fatality rate) not overall mortality rate.
      The mainstream press has been conflating and confusing mortality rate, IFR, CFR (case fatality rate) in order to scare everyone into thinking this is worse than it is.

      Let's define the terms in what we are talking about in the numerator/denominator:
      Let's assume that the numerator is in the range of 0.5 X to 1.5 X, where "X" equals official death count in a jurisdiction, and this is possibly overestimated by attributing deaths in people with multiple issues dying while infected with covid, and possibly underestimated where one can correct by counting all excess deaths. So while .5 to 1.5 is a range, it is not that bad a range.

      the denominator is in:
      1) US "mortality" 340,000,000, ie covid deaths over the entire population.
      2) CFR: known, diagnosed cases of infected and symptomatic
      3) IFR: estimated infected, includes lots of asymptomatic

      The CFR is ~0.3% , the IFR is between 0.1% to 0.2%; and the mortality rate -- which is the number you are giving -- is 0.03%

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  34. I'm confused here, I went to the johns hopkins web data site for covid-19 and divided total number deaths by confirmed cases and got roughly 6%. Now I know it's going to be higher or lower depending on your age, but how is my number so wildly different than this .3% ?

    1. Confirmed cases are those that presented themselves (or were presented) for medical help. Just from the JH and CDC numbers you can surmise that the real infection rate is at least 20 times the confirmed cases.

      1. Ok it’s less.

        How would you know it’s 20x that?

  35. "If you focus on hard-hit areas such as New York and New Jersey, an IFR between 0.2 and 0.3 percent, as suggested by the CDC's current best estimate, seems improbably low. "While most of these numbers are reasonable, the mortality rates shade far too low," University of Washington biologist Carl Bergstrom told CNN. "Estimates of the numbers infected in places like NYC are way out of line with these estimates."

    Not if you consider first, that random antibody tests in New York showed an infection rate of @ 15%. This means @ 2.9M infected and with a mortality of 28,313 yielding @ 0.95% mortality.

    While that's about 3 times the CDC projection, the CDC doesn't take into account morons dumping "recovered" but infected patients back into nursing homes (target rich environments). If the governors of who ordered that aren't charged with capital crimes, there is no justice.

  36. If a person has heart disease, diabetes and has bad lungs and a weak immune system, he can die if he gets COVID 19. But that does not mean that COVID 19 alone killed him; all the other factors contributed as well. If looked at from that standpoint, it is not really killing a lot of people.

    Also, during the 1958 Flu Pandemic, about 200,000 people died. There was no lock down back then.

    1. You don't have to have a lot of pre-existing conditions or be old to die from Covid. You could just be fat. If you are fat, you probably have high blood pressure and are pre-diabetic. Many fat people have no clue because they are borderline and last year they didn't go over enough for their doctors to make a fuss.

  37. Perhaps the real lesson is that, when it comes to anything other than war and crime, government "help" is like trying to put a fire out with gasoline.

  38. If you want to feel better about all of this just remember that all the global warming and climate change models are done by the same experts that are doing the coronavirus models. That means in 50 years the earth will actually be better off or destroyed. They have concluded this through intense studies and computer models.

  39. That's really nice stuff..... I am really glad that you share such informative articles.

  40. And even that incredibly low mortality rate estimate is itself too high, particularly as we seek to project that rate forward.

    Because we have, despite many indications to the contrary, actually gotten just a wee bit smarter over the last several months.

    1) Early and still evolving serology studies, looking for the presence of antibodies, indicate that the actual infection rate is 50X + higher than the reported symptomatic case rate. The Stanford Study in Santa Clara country indicated 956 known cases (at the time of the study) but a 2.7% infection rate which yields an estimated infected population size of approximately 50,000.

    Yes, these studies still show significant variance, but much of that variance can be attributed to ...
    2) the fact that 93% of the fatalities are comorbid (2.5 comorbidities per fatality, on average). Given that cormoribidy is very typically associated with age, then the more age-weighted the population studied, the higher that mortality rate will be.

    3) Treatment options continue to improve. What might have been a fatality in early March may not be one in July, August, or September as medical options are tested, proven, and more consistently applied (including both pharmaceuticals and antibody plasma transfusions)

    4) Now that we've identified more clearly exactly who comprises the most vulnerable, we can take (and already are taking) more effective protective measures to shield them from infection

    In sum, then, we can easily project an actual general population mortality rate of WuhanV to be essentially equivalent to the mortality rate of so-called 'ordinary' flu (higher among vulnerable/comorbid populations....lower among the younger/healthier). Now balance that against the cataclysmic damage done to the the 38M the tens of thousands of business shuttered, crashed, and the city & state revenue streams which have cratered, thereby crippling our ability to carry out planned infrastructure repair & maintenance... to the suicidally depressed, to those who suffer from domestic violence, to the drug-addicted, to those who have avoided doctor and hospital visits (missing critical testing for cancer, heart attack, and stroke) the entire medical system which has laid-off 1.4M workers and lost $200B in revenue because 'normal' medical procedures have been shut-down.

    Are we so afraid of dying (accepting the minimal risk thereof) that we refuse to live? Are we so afraid of dying (even one death is one death too many!) that we are willing to sacrifice our nation? God I hope not!

    1. You must have made Cs or worse in math, in school. Am I right? Yes, I thought so.

  41. 100,000 people dead, as in DEAD, in 3 months. And that is with all the lockdowns and the smart people wearing masks, etc.

    100,000 people DEAD from covid.

    So that's great if the IFR is 0.3% or 0.5% or 1.2%. It doesn't change how many people have died and that 2 or 3 or 5 times as many would be dead by this point if social distancing was not enforced. But 100,000 dead is plenty and that is in three months. Maybe it will be 250,000 dead by the end of the year, and the low IQ set will still be saying it's just a bad flu. Morons.

    1. And you are basing your 3x prediction of deaths based on how many people have died in Sweden, which didn't enforce the same lockdowns, as say New York, yet turned out better?

      100,000 people died from covid, but millions around the world will die from the side-effects of the lockdowns. Just in the U.S. more people will probably die from all the medical procedures missed or delayed. And let us just ignore the fact that the numbers of covid in the U.S. are inflated due to reporting procedures.

      Myopic obsession with possible direct deaths from covid is what led to the horrific economic destruction and subsequent devastation that we are witnessing around the world. Morons like yourself wish to see it continue.

      Hopefully you are just a troll.

      1. > . Just in the U.S. more people will probably die from all the medical procedures missed or delayed.

        You live in a pathetic fantasy world if you really think that 100,000 people died in the USA in the last three months from "medical procedures missed or delayed"..

        > And you are basing your 3x prediction of deaths

        Deaths from covid were doubling every three days until the "stay at home" orders and extreme social distancing was put into effect. I'm sure in your magical world that just suddenly stops and everyone is ok, but some of us have to live in the real world.

  42. Fatality rate is not the key factor. What is important is the contagion rate and the hospitalization rate. These two factors influences the number of hospitalizations required compared to the hospitalization capacity in an area. Also important is how fast you can get someone out of the hospital. Effective treatments will help with that.

    The amount of social distancing necessary is that which prevents local health care from getting overwhelmed. When local health care (and or health care workers) are overcapacity then additional deaths due to lack of capacity for non-Covid reasons start piling up too.

    1. I should say *minimum* social distancing necessary. Economic impact has to be balanced with health impact given that health care still has capacity. 100% social distancing is not what anyone is advocating, even with the most gradual start-up plans. I think easing and tightening social distancing will happen multiple times, especially with flu season overlapping Covid-19 in the fall.

  43. If you didn't make As or Bs in school, the STFU and don't post in this section. We don't need you low IQ opinions.

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  45. One thing to note is that the current crude CFR for New York is nearly 8 percent, compared to 4.4 percent in Florida. electricians grand rapids mi

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