Coronavirus

Two Reasons the Worst-Case Scenarios for COVID-19 Seem Unrealistic

The mortality rate is much lower than the official numbers suggest, and adaptive behavior affects the transmission rate.

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One of the scarier aspects of COVID-19 is that many people who are infected don't know they are carrying the virus, because the symptoms typically range from mild to nonexistent. At the same time, that fact means raw case fatality rates (CFRs), calculated based on the number of known infections, make the disease look much more lethal than it actually is. How big is the difference between the actual CFR and the CFRs suggested by the official numbers? That remains unclear, but recent research and expert estimates suggest some possibilities.

Speaking to reporters earlier this month, Brett Giroir, assistant secretary for health at the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, called attention to the "denominator problem"—i.e., the exclusion of many people with mild or nonexistent symptoms from official counts of confirmed COVID-19 infections. Giroir noted that "the typical mortality rate for seasonal flu is about 0.1 percent or 0.15 percent." By contrast, "the best estimates now for the overall mortality rate for COVID-19 is somewhere between 0.1 percent and 1 percent."

That range is "lower than you heard, probably, in many reports," Giroir said. "Why is this? Number one, it's because many people don't get sick and don't get tested…so probably for every case, there are at least two or three cases that are not even in the denominator." The CFR for COVID-19 "certainly could be higher" than the CFR for "normal flu," and "it probably is," Giroir said, but it is "not likely to be in the range of 2 to 3 percent," as the crude CFRs for some countries suggest. While the COVID-19 pandemic "is likely more severe in its mortality rate than the typical flu season," he added, "it's certainly within the range."

Three federal public health officials—Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases; H. Clifford Lane, the institute's deputy director for clinical research and special projects; and Robert Redfield, director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)—struck a similar note in a New England Journal of Medicine commentary last month. "If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1 percent," they wrote. "This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of COVID-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1 percent) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively."

A study in Science last week estimated that 86 percent of all infections were undocumented in the early stages of China's epidemic, before the travel restrictions that the government imposed on January 23. In other words, the actual number of infections was roughly six times as high as the official number. If that holds true at this point in the United States, where about 41,000 cases have been confirmed so far, the actual number of infections right now would be nearly 250,000. The actual CFR would be 0.2 percent, compared to the current crude CFR of 1.2 percent.

That makes a huge difference in terms of projected deaths. The CDC's worst-case scenario, which assumes that containment and suppression efforts are largely unsuccessful, imagines 214 million infections (65 percent of the population) and 1.7 million deaths, which implies a CFR of 0.8 percent. If the true CFR were 0.2 percent, the number of deaths would instead be 428,000.

How likely is it that 65 percent of the U.S. population will be infected? The Science study estimates that the basic reproduction number for COVID-19—the average number of people a carrier could be expected to infect—was 2.4 prior to January 23, "indicating a high capacity for sustained transmission." During the period from January 24 through February 8, the researchers estimate, that number dropped to 0.99.

One important question for the United States is the extent to which that reduction depended on government-imposed restrictions, as opposed to voluntary changes in behavior as people took more precautions to avoid infection. While lockdown enthusiasts give the lion's share of credit to coercive measures, it is not reasonable to assume that voluntary steps—avoiding crowds, limiting social interactions, paying extra attention to hygiene, and so on—would have no impact on the reproduction number. It is notable that jurisdictions such as South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, and Hong Kong seem to be having similar success at controlling their epidemics without imposing restrictions as severe as China's.

Even if the CFR for COVID-19 turns out to be something like 0.2 percent, it would still be deadlier than the seasonal flu, which has an estimated CFR of about 0.1 percent. Furthermore, COVID-19 seems to be more readily transmissible, with an estimated basic reproduction number between 2 and 2.5, compared to around 1.3 for the flu. COVID-19 also has a much longer incubation period than the seasonal flu: up to 14 days vs. up to four days.

"In theory, COVID-19 could spread further and faster than flu," notes microbiologist Alex Berezow, vice president of scientific communications at the American Council on Science and Health. Yet so far, he says, "it doesn't appear to be doing that….Every year, up to 1 billion people around the world get influenza and about 300,000 to 500,000 will die. The average seasonal flu case-fatality rate is 0.1%. But the sheer volume of cases means that, in the U.S. alone, 22,000 to 55,000 Americans have already died of flu during the 2019-20 season."

By comparison, the current official tally of COVID-19 cases is about 367,000 worldwide. Even if that number is off by a factor of six, the true number of infections would be around 2.2 million, a tiny fraction of annual flu cases. That certainly is not cause for complacency, since the number is bound to grow and since existing precautions help explain why the number of COVID-19 cases so far seems relatively small. But the comparison does suggest that the fears underlying the worst-case scenarios are overblown.

We do not have a clear picture of the infection rate in the United States because there has been no testing of nationally representative samples. Iceland, the one country that is screening its general population, recently reported the results of 1,800 tests involving asymptomatic people, of which 1 percent were positive for COVID-19. In a larger sample that included people with symptoms, about 6 percent tested positive.

It would be risky to extrapolate from those results, which involve a relatively isolated country with a total population of just 364,000. But unless something similar is attempted in the United States, policy makers will continue to make decisions in the dark, with potentially devastating consequences.

NEXT: FDA Should Get Out of the Way of At-Home COVID-19 Testing

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  1. Summary:
    The media over-reacted. Everything will be fine

    1. The media overreacted to assist the fascists in the government who are using the ‘crisis’ as cover.
      Everything is NOT fine.
      The revolution is over, and we lost.
      We lost the last pretense of individual freedoms, we lost the best economy in modern history, and we lost our collective minds.

      1. This.

        I think this one will be the final nail in Liberty’s coffin. Not only are pols enacting economy and civil rights busting measures that are wholly unnecessary, but large swaths if people are actively begging for more restrictions, more lockdowns, more government control.

        We’re fucked.

      2. All of this. Next up, some sort of currency fuckery that steals your retirement out from under you.

        1. Oh look, unlimited bond buying from the Fed.

        2. Too late — They’ve been doing that for a decade or two. Say you’ve saved a retirement of $100K. In 2150 a loaf of bread will be $10K – so you might be rich today but with the current status of government printing / borrowing they will essentially “steal your retirement out from under you” through inflation.

          1. Of course, if you are 30 right now, in 2150 you’ll be 160, and probably won’t worry about the price of bread.

          2. Too late — They’ve been doing that for a decade or two.

            Of low inflation.

            say you’ve saved a retirement of $100K. In 2150 a loaf of bread will be $10K

            6% averageinflation for 30 years?
            Inflation hysteria has been a real problem for decades.
            It makes a mockery of what should be genuine concerns
            And for THAT bread/nestegg example, free-market interest rates would be more appropriate.

            What would his house be worth? His wages? It has different effects on different examples. Like nearly 200 years of DEflation under the gold/silver standard, when Marx wound up saying “exploitation of the working class” because wages were forced down (in nominal dollars).

      3. The government mainly reacted to China’s response and Italian mortality figures. However they did so without taking into account why those areas were so bad. My personal bet is that Chinas death rate was much much higher than they’ve released but that it was so high because the Wuhan Flu primarily kills through complications with inflammation and the air quality in China was so bad that everybody was very susceptible to it. This is also why they’ve reported a sharp drop off in deaths since the primary cause of their population’s susceptibility vanished once the lockdown orders started. The air pollution maps in China over that period of three months are funny to see.

      4. “We need to help you help yourself”.

        – Gavin Newsom……. said with a smile on his face.

        Ok, this shit is getting really creepy now.

        1. Newsom has been creepy for quite a while.
          What looks like Brylcream is Brylcream; if he landed head-down on a roadway, he’d cause spin-outs for hours.
          And if you get a chance, ask him about fucking the wife of his assistant; probably gets the same response as Willie Brown when asked about Jim Jones.

          1. Nice. People forget “Any twosome” Newsom was banging his buddy’s wife

    2. Do You have a Paypal? Then you can make an additional 500 Dollars a week in your account just working on the laptop for a few hours… Read More

    3. Summary- clearly didn’t read the article.

      While we can hope this is true, we can’t rely on it. And bracing against a pandemic is a far better option than doing jack shit to begin with.

      The summary might be after all is said and done: Hindsight is 20/20.

      1. How come no similar response was necessary for Ebola, SARS, and MERS, which had similar dire projections?

        Something is fishy, and it ain’t isolated to Denmark.

      2. And bracing against a pandemic is a far better option than doing jack shit to begin with.

        There is a whole lot of room between “do jack shit” and “destroy individual autonomy and the whole fucking economy”.

        1. The reason jurisdictions such as South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, and Hong Kong seem to be having similar success at controlling their epidemics without imposing restrictions as severe as China’s is because ALL their citizens had and wear masks when they are out in public. Here in the US, we’re more concerned with keeping taxes low (and the Pentagon floating in money) rather than pay for any serious preparedness for a national emergency. Additionally, hospitals and healthcare companies are far more interested in paying CEOs obscene salaries than they are at stockpiling supplies and equipment for that “rainy day” that always comes when one least expects it. So even our hospitals don’t have enough masks for caregivers to wear, let alone every citizen. Remember when your mother told you to save your money for a rainy day?

          I predict that when this clusterfuck is over – and it’s not going to be anytime too soon – the people in this country are going to take a serious look at our lack of national preparedness (both public and private) and demand change. We can blow-up the world a million times over with bombs, yet we stand virtually naked and indefensible against the tiniest organisms.

          1. The government had a mandate to keep 100 million masks on hand… they never refilled after 2009’s pandemic. But keep blaming private industry which has no mandate to stock up for rainy day outbreaks.

            1. But let’s not note who was running the country in 2009.

              1. When it happens under Obama, it’s Obama’s fault.
                When it happens under Trump, it’s the Deep State cabal.

          2. “…Here in the US, we’re more concerned with keeping taxes low (and the Pentagon floating in money) rather than pay for any serious preparedness for a national emergency…”

            One more fucking lying lefty ignoramus whining about how daddy isn’t taking care of him!
            Grow up

          3. Asian countries have a large supply of masks because they are actually used by many people day-to-day.

            1. It’s so common that they have erotica dedicated to girls in masks.

          4. You must be one of the 50% who pay no taxes, but my taxes federally are around 20% of my income. That’s what democrats consider “low”. Add to that property taxes, sales taxes, state income taxes, fees in lieu of taxes, I’m forking out around half my income just paying taxes. As far as the military, it is one of our smaller federal expenses and one of the few federal expenses that is actually constitutionally provided for and discretionary. 75% of the federal budget is for charity, largess and money losing insurance companies the founders themselves said the federal government has no constitutional authority to spend federal money on. How long would we last with no military?

      3. “…And bracing against a pandemic is a far better option than doing jack shit to begin with…”

        This is the sort of imbecilic blather expected of lefty idiots; ‘if the government isn’t doing it, nothing is being done’.
        You’d hope that the lefty assholes would one day grow up and quit expecting daddy to take care of them.

      4. re: “Summary- clearly didn’t read the article.”

        Looking at the summaries provided by you and Virologist, it doesn’t seem like you have any room to talk about not reading the article.

    4. That’s not the takeaway. We have flu vaccines, and most people get an annual flu vaccine. There is no vaccine for COVID-19. The death toll for a season of flu WITHOUT a vaccinated public would be much much higher than it would be with a vaccinated public. Not every flu season has a severe flu, but many do. Laughing this off as just an other flu is bullshit. The Spanish Flu was “just another flu” and it killed off tens of millions.

      In addition, while we have good health care systems, we do not have the capacity to handle millions of cases. People survive severe flus today because we have good hospitalization. That disappears when the hospitals are overwhelmed. That doesn’t happen with the flu because we have… wait for it… vaccines! We don’t have vaccines for novel diseases. Nor do we have any natural resistances to them, because they are novel.

      Now I am NOT arguing in favor of the fascist measures being implemented to combat this disease. There has been a definite overreaction. But at the same time, laughing it all off as just media hype is bullshit.

      1. But it IS media hype.

        There is a MAJOR difference between recognizing problems figuring out ways to deal with them and what the media is doing. And pols are happy to use it as cover. If we had a media with a sense of propriety, this wouldn’t be happening.

        Instead, they’re creating panic when it’s the last thing we should do.

      2. Were there vaccines for Ebola, SARS, MERS?

        Wonder why they didn’t kill the projected millions without all this government intervention.

      3. The vaccine is hit-or-miss every year, based on a reasonable guess of what might be coming down the pike (from, uh, China btw). In 2017-18 it missed by a country mile, and like 80,000 Americans died. But somehow, the world did not end. WIth the response to this virus, it seems the objective is to end the world.

        1. Not the world, just Trump’s presidency.

      4. I haven’t had a flu vaccine in over 25 years and NEVER had the flu even when coming in contact with MULTIPLE individuals who were contagious! The key is to have a SOLID IMMUNE SYSTEM, NOT GETTING VACCINATED!

        1. I don’t think you understand how infectious disease transmission or vaccination in population to prevent disease transmission works.

          1. The majority here do not.
            This is already 25x more deadly than swine flu, and it’s just begun. Transmission of infections is like compound interest.
            On average, each infectee infects two people. So 1 person becomes 3
            3 people become 9
            9 people become 27
            27 people become 81
            81 people become 243.

            That’s the “curve” that we MUST flatten. The “fascist restrictions” are slashing how many die before a vaccine is available, 12-18 months.
            Imagine influenza with NO flu vaccine!

            Last Thursday, we were on the same curve as Italy, but 10 days behind. Italy reported 793 deaths that day, from 1/5 our population. IF we stay on the same curve, that would be 4,000 deaths in a single day. By month-end. And still climbing.

            If we see even 4,000 deaths a day, and growing, people will be AFRAID to go out. Same result as requiring them to stay home … but with far more deaths.

            1. You are such a stupid fucking retard Mary Stack. I wish you would be one of the miniscule number of virus victims.

              1. *lol*

                COVID-19 DEATH RATE 25X WORSE THAN SWINE FLU

                Data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention track the increase of H1N1 swine flu in 2009 from the day of the first death – April 28th, 2009 — compared with the rise of COVID-19 since the first U.S. coronavirus death was reported in Washington on Feb. 29.

                … the CDC had confirmed 4,226 COVID-19 cases in 16 days since the first death.

                At the same stage in 2009, the CDC had tallied 3,352 H1N1 cases.

                But, contrary to Trump’s claims, the death rate for COVID-19 has far outpaced H1N1 over the same span.

                The CDC had confirmed 75 COVID-19 deaths through (last) Monday. By contrast, 16 days after the first swine flu death, there were only three H1N1 deaths reported to the CDC.

                75/3 = COVID-19 is 25 times more deadly than swine flu

                The CDC estimates about 12,000 Americans ended up dying from swine flu between April 2009 and April 2010.

                12,000 x 25 = 300,000 corvid
                Graphic comparison charts at the source

                Anything else?

      5. Why do you liberals lie so fucking much?

        “Flu vaccination coverage among adults was 37.1%, a decrease of 6.2 percentage points from the previous flu season. ”

        https://www.cdc.gov/flu/fluvaxview/coverage-1718estimates.htm

        About a third isnt most. For fuck sakes. Learn basic facts before trying to be an expert.

        Everything you wrote is based on a false premise.

        1. “Flu vaccination coverage among adults was 37.1%, a decrease of 6.2 percentage points from the previous flu season. ”

          And that’s US. Several European countries are notorious for culturally avoiding certain vaccinations and all kinds of various shithole governments are well-known to either manipulate known numbers or outright fabricate unknown numbers.

        2. basic facts before trying to be an expert.

          What would be the death rate (per population) with NO flu vaccine?
          THAT is COVID-19!

          1. There are years when the flu vaccine fails.

            1. Diversion.

      6. Flu vaccines are only ~30% effective. Not the change in mortality you are likely thinking here.

        1. Flu vaccines are only ~30% effective

          How would you know that?

          CDC: flu vaccination reduces the risk of flu illness by between 40% and 60% among the overall population during seasons when most circulating flu viruses are well-matched to the flu vaccine.
          https://www.cdc.gov/flu/fluvaxview/coverage-1718estimates.htm

          The RELEVANT point: How deadly would seasonal flu be with NO vaccine, THAT is CORVID-19

      7. And if the government had quarantined us all during the spanish flu what the heck do you think would have happened to the economy? It was already bad enough with everyone going to work despite the epidemic, had everyone stayed home it may have saved lives but at the cost of massive and long term economic hardship to everyone in the nation (except the politicians of course, they get paid anyway). I’m over 60 and a 2 cigar a day smoker with weak heart and bad lungs, directly in the cross hairs of this thing, should I expect the economy to shut down in order to add a couple extra years to my life? That actually seems to be the attitude of America even during the best of times, if it saves even one life any amount of economic damage and loss of rights is worth it, even if that life isn’t really worth much. We’ll spend a hundred thousand a year keeping an 80 year old bedridden and miserable but alive. That’s not actually my version of compassion.

        1. How many will still go to work when there are 10,000 deaths in a single day?

          The swine flu killed 12,000 Americans, April/2008 – April 2009
          Corvid is 25x more deadly so far.
          If that pace continues this will kill 300,000 in a year.
          That’s 25,000 a month,

          Italy had 793 deaths in a single day, with 1/5 our population … 4,000 in one day. adjusted to our population,

          Italy, who had more deaths than CHINA! has finally got their curve heading downward. They added law enforcement. It was so successful, England STARTED with violations as a misdemeanor and fine. Trump’s going in the wrong direction!

    5. virologist….maybe = media over-reacted.

      The fact is, we do not know yet. What is the percentage people afflicted by the Wuhan coronavirus that require hospitalization, and go on to recover after a lengthy stay?

      And we have zippo idea of longer term health effects, post recovery.

      1. And we have zippo idea of longer term health effects, post recovery.

        It’s a safe bet that if you had a mild case, you’re not going to have any long term effects, since the virus gets eliminated completely.

        If you had a severe case, you may get some lung damage from the inflammation, same as with run-of-the-mill pneumonia.

        1. NOYB2….Let it be as you say = It’s a safe bet that if you had a mild case, you’re not going to have any long term effects

    6. Everything will NOT be fine! The death rate depends on where you are. Currently the death rate in the US is about 1.1%, but in China it was over 4%, while in Italy it currently stands at over 9% (as I pen this Italy has 63927 cases and 6077 deaths; do the math!).

      At the moment the US is following the some trend line as Italy so expect things to get worse before they get better. That’s the price you pay for not taking the threat more seriously sooner.

      1. Italy has been reporting any death involving COVID-19 as being caused by the virus. Their own NIH reviewed the data and found that on 12% of those deaths should have shown COVID-19 as the proximate cause. And 12% of 9% is… 1.1%

        The attribution of cause of death is very important.

        1. [your name here]: “Their own NIH reviewed the data and found that on 12% of those deaths should have shown COVID-19 as the proximate cause.

          What’s your source for that statement? That is NOT what I’m seeing being stated elsewhere.

          1. And the average age of the people who have died is 78.5–why? Because Italy, especially in the Lombardy region, is among the oldest populations in Europe.

            Meanwhile, Germany is showing a mortality rate of 0.3 percent, primarily because, like typical Germans, they’re testing like crazy and methodically documenting ANYONE that shows a trace of the virus.

            1. New York City is our epicenter. Nearly half their cases are under 45 years old.

              New Orleans has just exploded to a near epicenter, which shows how the virus actually is under warmer, humid weather.

          2. That is NOT what I’m seeing being stated elsewhere.

            Then quit citing Vox and HuffPoo as a source fuckwad.

            1. FAILS to provide the requested source. (yawn)

              1. #KillYourselfHihn

                1. Called out for FAILING to provide a source (FACT) … throws an infantile hissy fit. Bellowing.

        2. Source?

      2. Death rate is decreasing, especially here, as more tests get put out.

        4.06% March 8 (22 deaths of 541 cases)

        3.69% March 9 (26 of 704)

        3.01% March 10 (30 of 994)

        2.95% March 11 (38 of 1,295)

        2.52% March 12 (42 of 1,695)

        2.27% March 13 (49 of 2,247)

        1.93% March 14 (57 of 2,954)

        1.84% March 15 (68 of 3,680)

        1.90% March 16 (86 of 4,503)

        1.76% March 17 (109 of 6,196)

        1.66% March 18 (150 of 9,003)

        1.51% March 19th (208 of 13,789)

        1.32% March 20th (256 of 19,383)

        US is largely only testing those with symptoms, which skews the number even more.

        In italy there was a report out earlier that they have only actually tested 12% of the covid recorded fatalities, they are likely mixing flu deaths with covid deaths.

        1. JesseAz: “In italy there was a report out earlier that they have only actually tested 12% of the covid recorded fatalities, they are likely mixing flu deaths with covid deaths.

          You were quoting only HALF the statement. Here is a FULLER version:

          “On re-evaluation by the National Institute of Health, only 12 per cent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus, while 88 per cent of patients who have died have at least one pre-morbidity – many had two or three,” he says.

          Notice that word “direct” (as in “direct causality from coronavirus”) which you conveniently omitted?

          What that means is while only 12% had a DIRECT cause of death from the virus the other 88% of deaths had the virus as only one of the causes. Meaning they died largely from complications in pre-existing conditions exacerbated by the virus.

          You really need to read an article more fully.

          BTW, my source for that extract is:

          https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/have-many-coronavirus-patients-died-italy/

          Read iut for yourself.

          1. You really dont understand what you read… not even worth discussing.

            Hint. Virtually none of the deaths are not directly caused by covid, it is almost the secondary ailments (generally more existing). The fact is many of the deaths attributed to covid were done so purely because of the other causes. Not every death in Italy was tested for Covid.

            1. JesseAz: “You really dont understand what you read…

              No, it’s you who don’t.

              JesseAz: “Virtually none of the deaths are not directly caused by covid

              That statement is nonsensical. (NO deatha were “not directly caused”?) Duh!

              I preume you mean “none were directly caused”.

              YOu do understsnd what the word “directly” means?

              Hmm, maybe not.

              OK, first, 12% is not “virtually none”. Secondly, the other 88% were STILL caused by COVID19, just LESS directly. Meaning, it was a CONTRIBUTING cause of death. Didn’t I explain that?

              Apparentlly not.

              The article DOES goes on to explain why, but I since you (probably) didn’t bother to read it I’ll let you stew in your own ignorance.

              JesseAz: “Not every death in Italy was tested for Covid.

              Who’s suggesting that? Of those 6077 Italian deaths EVERY SINGLE ONE had covid19. Just some of them had other conditions which covid19 exacerbated. But they ALL had covid19.

              1. You really don’t understand how these things work right? Just like with the flu, it is generally the 2nd infections of pneumonia that exacerbate and cause death, not the virus itself.

                “Who’s suggesting that? Of those 6077 Italian deaths EVERY SINGLE ONE had covid19. Just some of them had other conditions which covid19 exacerbated. But they ALL had covid19.”

                No, Italy has flatly stated they did not test every attributed death for Covid. Some they assumed based on the secondary ailments as the cause of death.

                1. JesseAz: “No, Italy has flatly stated they did not test every attributed death for Covid.

                  Then you should have no problem proving it. Point me to where you saw that statement you claim the Italians made because that is NOT what the sources I’m using claim themselves. At the moment all you’re doing is making unproven assertions.

                  1. He always runs away, when asked for a source.
                    I don’t think that discussion hit the real issue, with no examples.

                    COVID-19 causes pneumonia. It’s the pneumonia which kills, because it’s so severe. A few sources call it “coronavirus pneumonia” (one labek)

                2. every country is effected with this virus after china Italy and Spain most effected and now US we must think about it many of people from Israel and from other country are accept ISLAM because they think that the only way to get rid from corona is ISLAM
                  A few days ago when heavy fire in Australia is not controlled and the Muslim people offers prayer and the is finish that why i also think to accept i think ISLAM is best religious all over the world

      3. “Everything will NOT be fine!..”

        Won’t you please fuck off and die of a heart attack?

        1. Temper, temper!

      4. Almost 25% of the population of Italy is over 60, 5% is over 80, they’re the oldest population in Europe. China already was known to have a huge respiratory problem from the air they breath. People were already wearing masks daily just because of the air pollution. America hasn’t even come close to the Italian CFR. After a couple months of government mandated sitting on our couches watching netflix I do expect the obesity rate to rise though. I also expect that the economic damage the government is causing will be the worst part of this virus.

        1. Italy, like many others, finally reversed their worst-in-world ranking.
          They STRENGTHENED their restrictions, and added police enforcement.
          That was so successful that England BEGAN with a list of legal reasons to be away from home, with violations a misdemeanor or fine.

          I also expect that the economic damage the government is causing will be the worst part of this virus.

          Based on what?
          How much economic damage when deaths hit 4,000 per day? 10,000.?

          That’s exactly where we’re heading. Italy’s worse day was 793 deaths, from 1/5 our population. That’s 4,000 in our population, and we are on track to see that within two weeks. When they talk of “flattening the curve,” have you ever seen the curve? Do you know what it means? Our slope is almost vertical, which means the RATE of growth increases every day,

          At the same pace, we’d hit 10,000 death in one day, in maybe 6 weeks,
          THEN … what happens if Trump had stayed with his national re-open by Easter? (now cut way back.) With NOTHING to slow the growth we’d hit 20,000, and keep going.

          This is 25 times more deadly than swine flu. And a much bigger threat than Ebola, which never hit major urban centers. This BEGAN in a major urban center, Metro Seattle. NYC is now half our national total infections .. so bad that the administration now asks EVERYONE who left New York recently to … self-quarantine for 14 days.

          It’s not just the media fomenting hysteria here.

          America hasn’t even come close to the Italian CFR.

          WRONG METRIC. We’re on the same slope they were, until they toughened up, but 10 days behind, and our cases just doubled in a single day. You may not grasp the growth dynamics where evert infected person infects 2 more. Then 2 infect 4, 4 infect 8 …

    7. The media under reacted. Everything will not be fine for those who are dead…or have permanent lung damage…or lost loved ones.

      1. Fuck off, Chicken Little, unless you want to start crying for all the flu deaths that happened this year, too.

        1. You retard. Did flu deaths overwhelm hospitals?

          1. You retard. Did flu deaths overwhelm hospitals?

            Imagine influenza with NO flu vaccine.

          2. As a former nurse, who worked both acute and long term care, flu season is always busier. In long term care it is quite common for flu season (in a population with near 100% vaccination to boot) to tax resources to the limits every year. Some years, even in acute care, it would tax resources to the max. Outside of medicine I doubt most people realize how taxing of resources fly season is every year. It is difficult to prepare because it is difficult to predict how serious flu season will be until you are into it.

            1. Thanks, It’s the PACE that so many people cannot imagine,

      2. Everything will not be fine for those who are dead…or have permanent lung damage…or lost loved ones.

        Indeed. And by wasting trillions of dollars to save what amounts to maybe a few hundred people, you end up destroying the lives of half the people in this country and killing thousands. That’s the kind of selfish bastard you are.

        1. “few hundred people”.

          Your fantasy world is a bore.

          1. Even a few thousand or a few hundred thousand it is hard to justify destroying the livelihoods of 160,000,000 people or more.

            1. I totally agree with this. We’re ensuring maximum damage whether you get the virus or not. I think the long term financial hardships we’re causing hiding from the virus are going to be far worse on far more people than the worst the virus will do.

              1. How much will the virus do, at its current pace, which is accelerating?
                Our cases just doubled in a single day.

        2. NOYB2:to save what amounts to maybe a few hundred people

          There have already been over 17,000 deaths fro COVID-19 worldwide. Short of a miracle, that will probably double in another 7-10 days, and double again in a further 7-10 days beyond that.

          Are you suggesting you’re not interested in saving them?

        3. destroying the lives of half the people in this country and killing thousands.

          Hysteria much.
          How many died of swine flu? Corvid us just starting, but is, for now, 25X more deadly.

          1. Now there’s some hysteria. So far even worst case it’s not even close to the cfr of the spanish flu. And we didn’t shut down the economy during the spanish flu, what we’re doing now is ensuring the maximum damage to the majority in order to attempt to save a minority.

            1. You obviously have no clue how to compare two diseases, which is to compare their growth, day by day, from the first death of each.

              CORVID is still new. This is the first 16 days for both.

              … the CDC had confirmed 4,226 COVID-19 cases in 16 days since the first death.
              At the same stage in 2009, the CDC had tallied 3,352 H1N1 cases.

              But, contrary to Trump’s claims, the death rate for COVID-19 has far outpaced H1N1 over the same span.

              The CDC had confirmed 75 COVID-19 deaths, 16 days after its first death.. By contrast, 16 days after the first swine flu death, there were only three H1N1 deaths reported to the CDC.

              75/3 = COVID-19 is 25 times more deadly than swine flu

              The CDC estimates about 12,000 Americans ended up dying from swine flu between April 2009 and April 2010.

              12,000 x 25 = 300,000
              Graphic comparison charts at source

              **”… (swine flu) didn’t go away. Many people don’t realize it’s now part of the seasonal flu and covered by the annual flu vaccine. … COVID-19 is completely new, is hitting on top of the seasonal flu, has no vaccine and clearly warrants the stronger response because nobody is immune.

              ***********”Less than two years ago, the seasonal flu was especially deadly. It killed an estimated 61,000 Americans, …

              That’s WITH a vaccine. CORVID has NO vaccine and is more deadly

              … but it didn’t overwhelm health care workers and hospitals, as COVID-19 did in Italy and threatens to in the U.S. Those people (with seasonal flu) were spread out from November to April or May. Our healthcare system is designed to handle that kind of load. Not so with COVID-19.”

    8. “…so probably for every case, there are at least two or three cases that are not even in the denominator.”

      If you buy the premise the conclusion makes sense. I’m not sure I buy the premise. “Probably” as stated by someone with an agenda rarely has anything to do with statistical probability and usually has everything to do with trying to elevate an opinion to the level of a fact.

      Regardless of what the media says, the data coming from the Italy shows conclusively that the number (not percentage, just raw number) of people who require hospitalization can overwhelm the healthcare system. Much like a vaccine, if restrictions aren’t imposed (either coercively or voluntarily) on peoples’ ability to transmit the infection, the critical number of carriers can easily undermine others’ actions. This is far more contagious than the flu. It incubates slower, often making people contagious before becoming symptomatic. Unless we significantly slow its rapid spread our hospitals and healthcare staff will be overwhelmed. I saw a cell phone video taken inside an Italian hospital yesterday. It was beyond bleak with dying, wheezing people crammed in hallways.

      If similar images from the U.S. make their rounds on social media as they inevitably will, I hate to think of how people are going to react. The simple fact is that while there is a contingent of Americans who would be happy to ignore shelter-in-place orders and go back to work, many won’t. Those that do will continue to spread the virus- both to each other and to their friends and family. “Getting back to work” is an aspiration, but until the virus is better understood it will be a hard sell to the general public.

      We need to have the *actual* data regarding death rate vis-a-vis infection rate as well as knowing exactly how it is spread and how it can be stopped short of quarantine. Historians may well note that the devastation to the economy was worse than the pandemic itself, but we live in such a sanitized scared society that until the general public feels safe to go back to work the economy can not hope to rebound.

      The media is not to blame for this, and no, it will not be fine. Not for a good long time. Get used to it.

  2. that Fauchi asshole should be placed on stage with a sock in his mouth.

    1. a Tulpa sock

    2. No doubt you made poor grades in school in science class. Fauci is smart, you are dumb.

    3. Wait a sec: I thought this site was called “Reason”. Fauci knows what he is talking about. Trump has no idea about any of this. Why would you silence the truth? This whole anti-intellectualism thing from so many on the right is bizarre. Do you take your car to a knowledgable mechanic or do you just trust the salesman who says you need a new car?

      1. for the most part I tend to my car myself, thanks. i’m just tired of him enjoying the spotlight and i believe we’ll end up on this side of his “the sky is falling!”

        1. It was Fauci (and Briz?) who finally talked Trump out of another massive blunder, his nationwide re-opening by Easter. At yesterday’s press conference, Trump even said that a single, one-size fits all, policy is the wrong way to go.

          (Trump threw you under the bus)

  3. covid-19 not that much dangerous disease, in my opinion we should take a break and seek for some coins, im professionally metal detecting since 2018 and also suggesting to try it. I bought my detector based on detecthistory reviews, its the easiest way to relax cuz its you and huge unexplored field……

    1. Of course it’s a dangerous disease! The death rate depends on where you live. Currently the death rate in the US is about 1.1%. In Italy it currently stands at over 9% (as I pen this Italy has 63927 cases and 6077 deaths; do the math!).

      1. “Of course it’s a dangerous disease!..”

        Chicken little is here to tell us to PANIC!!!!!!!

        1. No, I’m SUGGESTING you take the danger seriously and take some elementary precautions. Of course, if you want to die from the disease that’s your constitutional right. Be my guest. No one’s stopping you.

          1. The only ones who should take the low incidence of danger seriously are the high risk groups. Destroying an economy over this is far more dangerous.

            1. Jesse: “Destroying an economy over this is far more dangerous.

              So you prefer to act like a cat crossing a road at night: staring at the approaching headlights and not scuttling out of the way until it too late?

              That is basically what Iran, and Italy did. Now they’re in the full grip of the epidemic with no easy way out save TOTAL lockdown. What do you imagine THAT does to an economy?

              The sooner you act the LESS likely you are to need the sorts of extreme countermeasures that WILL do damage to the economy. Conversely, the longer you procrastinate the worse the damage will be and the more extreme the countermeasures (eg China) necessary to stop it.

              You won’t save the economy by putting it first and people’s lives a distant second.

            2. It doesn’t matter if destroying the economy is more dangerous. Until the majority of people feel safe going back to work the economy isn’t going to start itself. The spread has to be contained and we need to know more about the infection before enough people will be wiling to go back to work as before. The economy is a symptom. We need to deal with the cause, like it or not.

          2. Yeah, I’m sure the second-order effects of a demolished economy will be miniscule in comparison to a virus that is most dangerous to the eldery and infirm, just like every other upper respiratory illness.

            1. Umm, what happens to the stock market at 10,000 deaths per day? And how many will be AFRAID to go out? So, we’d have the same number of people sheltered, by 5X the deaths.

              The math is simple. We get lockdowns either way. Voluntary or required?

          3. You’re free to take whatever precautions you want to. The problem is when you try to use the power of the government to impose your hare-brained precautions on others.

            1. NOYB2: “The problem is when you try to use the power of the government to impose your hare-brained precautions on others.

              Your presumptions are showing. How can I use “the power of the government” when I don’t work in or for the government, and so I have NO power to use?

      2. Ok, but the important thing is:

        Can DetectHistory interest you in a used metal detector? Might calm ya down!

        Haha

  4. So it is worse than the flu?
    Is it worse than the flu was when the flu was new and in full power?
    Is it worse than the fatalities from cars?
    Who is John Galt? (and has he tested positive?)

    1. Perhaps it would help if the media’s tallies of COVID-19 cases and deaths had parallel tallies for the flu and automobile deaths.

      1. “apples and oranges” is what they say when logical arguments are made about flu and banning the wheel.

        1. If they even bother. My experience is them jumping straight to “you just want people to die.”

      2. Imagine if 0.1 percent of everyone who owned a car would die this year. Current automobile death toll is around 35,000. At a 0.1 percent fatality rate, that’s around 300,000 deaths.

        NEARLY TEN TIMES THE NUMBER OF DEATHS!

        1. Are you comparing global and country, by year, by year-to-date, or maybe by how many butt hairs you yanked while typing?

        2. It’s cute you think everyone in America will get infected by covid. You and JFree should go discuss this. And ignore 86% of asymptomatic cases that will go untested.

        3. Imagine if 0.1 percent of everyone who owned a car would die this year.

          ~1% of everyone who owns a car does die every year. Probably has been *more* or less true for close to a century.

          1. No, sorry, not even close. There are about 230m driver licenses and 270 million vehicles in the us. Annual fatalities are around 40000. That makes for an annual mortality rate of about 0.02%.

            1-2% is about the lifetime risk of a driver to die in a car accident, not the annual risk.

            1. Automobile deaths are not contagious!
              Automobile deaths do not keep tripling.
              One automobile death does not “infect” two more automobile deaths.

          2. You moron. Those stats are wrong.

          3. That’s 2 people who didn’t read what was written.

            ~2.5 million people die every year in the US. Only something like 8% don’t have access to a car. ~2.5M / 250M ~ 1% (The math is really closer to something like (2.8M * 0.9) / 275M but why should I car about accuracy if you nitwits don’t.)

            ~1% of people who own a car will die this year. And, as you go back in history, the total deaths per year goes down, but so does vehicle ownership. So, it’s not at all unthinkable that ~1% of car owners have died every year for the better part of a century.

            Or are we making some stupid statement where people catch cars from their neighbors and, when they get drunk and slam into a bridge abutment, it’s their neighbor’s fault for giving them cars?

      3. Or parallel tallies with swine flu deaths from 2009-2010.

        1. Or parallel tallies with swine flu deaths from 2009-2010

          Since you asked

          COVID-19 DEATH RATE 25X WORSE THAN SWINE FLU

          … the CDC had confirmed 4,226 COVID-19 cases in 16 days since the first death.
          At the same stage in 2009, the CDC had tallied 3,352 H1N1 cases.

          The CDC had confirmed 75 COVID-19 deaths through ((last)) Monday. By contrast, 16 days after the first swine flu death, there were only three H1N1 deaths reported to the CDC.

          75/3 = COVID-19 is 25 times more deadly than swine flu

          The CDC estimates about 12,000 Americans ended up dying from swine flu between April 2009 and April 2010.

          12,000 x 25 = 300,000
          Graphic chart comparisons at the source

          1. You keep posting this “25X more dangerous” number, but then you show the math you are using and reveal that you are not saying what you think you are saying.

            Having 75 deaths in 16 days instead of 3 deaths in 16 days (putting aside for the moment the laughably small number you are using) just shows that for those cases COVID-19 killed faster. And if that’s the case, we should be cheering. A fast-killing viral infection will burn out of a population faster (e.g. – Ebola). Without also showing transmission rates (probably still the biggest unknown being addressed by increased testing), and an accurate CFR (currently falling to the H1N1 range) you cannot say how much more or less dangerous a virus is.

            1. I said 25 times more

              just shows that for those cases COVID-19 killed faster.

              The death cases spread faster. The average time between infection and death is untracked and unknown.

              Would you say that swine flu killed slower, for those cases ending in death? If so, what you’ve said is that no such data can be useful.

              Plus, look again at the data. It include INFECTIONS. THAT makes this more deadly.

              In round numbers
              covid = 75/4226 = 1.8%
              swine = 3/3352 = 0.09%
              Covid is 1.8/0.09 = 20 times more deadly PER PERSON.

              <blockquote< transmission rates (probably still the biggest unknown being addressed by increased testing), Just as easily calculated In 16 days
              Covid went from 1 death to 75.
              Swine from 1 death to 3.

              That ratio will from get even worse as more days are added, simply because covid had nearly 900 more people infected, and infecting others.

              1. OOPS First line should be

                I said 25 times more deadly, per the data.

      4. Yes, great idea. Do that after 12 months so we can see clearly what morons most of you are in this comments section.

      5. Perhaps it would help if the media’s tallies of COVID-19 cases and deaths had parallel tallies for the flu and automobile deaths.

        Automobile deaths are not contagious!
        Automobile deaths do not keep tripling.
        One automobile death does not “infect” two more automobile deaths.

  5. “One of the scarier aspects of COVID-19 is that many people who are infected don’t know they are carrying the virus, because the symptoms typically range from mild to nonexistent.”

    No, that’s not scary at all. When many of the people who are sick don’t even know they’re sick, that means _it’s not serious_. When you’ve got something serious, you’re not in any doubt as to whether you’re seriously ill.

    1. There are people who never get symptoms, but it’s also true that everyone who gets serious symptoms, or even dies, has a period of days after he’s infected where he has no symptoms.

      That’s not reassuring.

      1. People who get seriously symptoms do not, by definition, have mild to nonexistent symptoms.

        1. NOT AT THE SAME TIME … THERE CAN BE NO SYMPTOMS FOR AS LONG AS 14 DAYS … THEN BECOME FATAL.

      2. No, that’s not scary at all. When many of the people who are sick don’t even know they’re sick, that means _it’s not serious_

        THEY’RE STILL CARRIERS, ABLE TO INFECT AND KILL OTHERS … RAND PAUL SELF-QUARANTINED WHEN HE TESTED POSITIVE, WITH NO SYMPTOMS AT ALL.

    2. When the hospital ventilators are all in use and the ambulance parking lot becomes the triage tent to decide who gets the next available ventilator and who gets to wait for the U-Haul to the crematorium, the fatality numbers will go up and people will not be quite so enthusiastic about going back to work. The economy is a symptom. The virus is the cause.

      1. ^THIS

        The economy is a symptom. The virus is the cause.

        I’m stealing that. 🙂

  6. The article makes a lot of sense but then why are our hospitals being overwhelmed? And how do you explain what’s happening in Italy?

    1. We have 1,000 serious cases in the US. Even if every one of them needed a hospital bed & ventilator, we have plenty. Specific local places may be overwhelmed, but the answer is to increase the supply of care in an as-needed basis.

      1. THat’s because thanks to Trump testing in the US was slow to get started. The US is on the same trend line as Italy, where the death rate is horrendous.

        1. It is amazing how dumb some of you are. Trump does not run the day to day operations of the FDA or CDC. Those decisions are made by career individuals. The decision to restrict test kit creation was made by career bureaucrats.

          Trump has actually acted by ordering bother the FDA and CDC to reduce regulatory barriers.

          And again, you’re fucking lying. The US trend line is decreasing as a percent dumbfuck.

          1. JesseAz: “…you’re fucking lying. The US trend line is decreasing as a percent dumbfuck.

            Temper, temper!

            So you think I’m lying do you? OK, you should then have no problem pointing me to the site which shows that decreasing trend line. Go right ahead. Point me to it.

            1. It is called the CDC. I literally posted the week to week numbers dummy.

            2. “…Point me to it.”

              Lying lefty shitbags lie; it’s what they do.\
              Fuck off, chicken little; die of your TDS.

              1. Stephen ran away when I called out the graph he was using to cite the same trajectory as Italy.

        2. “…The US is on the same trend line as Italy, where the death rate is horrendous.”

          Your TDS ate your cite, chicken little. Perhaps we’ll be fortunate and it’ll be fatal in your case.

        3. I’m all for blaming the CDC for making private tests illegal, and blaming the FDA for continuing to do the same. Trump runs neither of those agencies. When the market finally breaks through and supplies the information that we’re demanding, we’ll finally understand this was much ado about nothing. As long as government stands in the way of widespread testing, they have us by the short hairs.

          1. Trump runs neither of those agencies.

            So …. are they in the Legislative branch, or in Judicial?
            Perhaps state-level agencies???

        4. Testing has absolutely nothing to do with how fast the virus spreads in the real world. And the test kits were delayed due to FDA and CDC regulations, not Trump.

          1. Testing has absolutely nothing to do with how fast the virus spreads in the real world

            You just can’t help it, can you.
            When Rand Paul and Ted Cruz tested positive, they self-quarantined, to avoid infecting others.

            But YOU would NOT self-isolate, and DEMAND the “right” to infect, or kill, others.

            While you were in a coma, Trump said it was a “Democrat hoax” … “It will go away, magically.”

            1. Of course, for the rest of us, we generally can’t get tested unless we show symptoms, so folks infected but asymptomatic aren’t tested.

              1. Of course, for the rest of us, we generally can’t get tested unless we show symptoms, so folks infected but asymptomatic aren’t tested.

                Rand Paul and Ted Cruz volunteered to be tested, because they’d both been near a carrier.
                Neither had symptoms — which don’t appear for up to 14 days.

                Here’s why. When someone learns they’ve been close to a carrier, they test to see if THEY are infected. Also why Trump got tested, after exposure to the infected President and Press Secretary from Brazil … after originally (and recklessly) refusing to test. Pence was also tested based on proximity.

      2. Yes we have 1,000 serious cases today. How much of a peabrain do you have to not realize it will be much more than that in weeks.

        1. Each infected person infects 2 more, on average
          1 becomes 3, becomes 9, becomes 27, becomes 81 ….

          New York’s has been doubling every THREE days.

    2. Hundreds of thousands of people are hospitalized every year due to flu. The US has 924k hospital beds. An extra “flu” and its hundreds of thousands of hospitalizations, if they happen close together, would put a lot of stress on hospitals.

      So hospitals being overwhelmed doesn’t mean the new disease is super deadly. It just shows that hospitals don’t keep massive amounts of overcapacity.

      1. Which they are right not to do.

        I had some asshole arguing that this is why we need gov run healthcare. Because they would make sure to “put people before profits” and have an emergency stash of medical equipment for situations like this.

        I then asked why Italy *currently* has the problems they’re projecting here if thing were to get really bad.

        The bottom line is you don’t plan your entire system around a once a century event (though after this shit storm of government power masturbation I foresee new “pandemics” every couple of years as they tighten the ratchet.

        1. Did you mention to that asshole that we used to have 100 million facemasks in 2009, used most of them for H1N1, and then the government never replenished the stock? Hope he also realized that the FDA regulations is largely what is stopping the quick startup of factories for generic medicines and the FDA also makes it prohibitively expensive to create said generics in the United States.

      2. Hundreds of thousands of people are hospitalized every year due to flu.

        THE FLU HAS A VACCINE, AND MEDICATION, WITH 100% OF AMERICANS EXPOSED TO IT.

        COVID-19 HAS NO VACCINE, NO MEDICATION, AND ONLY 3% OF AMERICANS EXPOSED TO IT, SO FAR. DO THE MATH.

    3. “The article makes a lot of sense but then why are our hospitals being overwhelmed?”
      They aren’t.

      “And how do you explain what’s happening in Italy?”
      Different demographics and there are things known as ‘outliers’.
      How do YOU explain So. Korea and please justify, in NUMBERS, not arm-waving projections, shutting down the entire economy.

      1. Outliers have nothing to do with it. Preparedness and early action do.

        It’s still (comparatively) early days in America (current death rate: 1.1%), but it IS following the same trend line as Italy (current death rate: 9.5%). Expect the situation to get worse. MUCH worse.

        1. “Outliers have nothing to do with it. Preparedness and early action do.”

          Actually, chicken littles have more to do with the PANIC!!! than does the disease.

        2. You know what’s funny… I actually know which trend line you are citing and was hoping you would post it so I could laugh at you. It is a lefty facebook image of total infections over time. It doesnt normalize by population, but uses total numbers and total death. No normalization for the fact that the US has nearly 300 million more people than Italy.

          Love how dummies fall for non normalized comparisons.

    4. Statism and statism.

      There was a time when doctors came to your bedside rather than insisting you drag your sickly carcass to them. Since that time, commuting has become easier, telecommuting has become a thing, and the medical community (including insurers) has both stratified and been massively regulated. The closest approximation the modern era has for house calls is minute clinics and that approximation is exceedingly poor.

      Moreover, in Italy, they’re saying the hospitals have been overfilled for weeks. This is an exceedingly bizarre statement for a couple of reason: 1. If you need a hospital bed, you can get pretty much anyplace inside and lots of places outside of Italy in less than a week and 2. presumably all the beds in Italy, even the EU, are interchangeable when it comes to COVID-19. The issue isn’t that all the hospitals in Italy are full.

      The issue is that mismanaged resources are scarce and the easiest way to raise awareness in such a situation is panic.

    5. Hospitals are not being overwhelmed. It is a liberal hoax. That is what the MAGA dumbf*cks really think.

      1. RobertWorth: “Hospitals are not being overwhelmed. It is a liberal hoax.

        Italy (current death rate: 9.5% ) and other places are in crisis because of this virus and you’re STILL mouthing Trump’s claim of a hoax?

        1. Chicken little, you should address the statement and quit lying about Trump; he never claimed the disease was a hoax.
          That only outs you as a lying lefty piece of shit.

          1. BEND OVER, THIS WILL JAM UP YOUR LYING ASS EASIER!!

            PROOF YOU’RE A PSYCHO LIAR!
            Trump says it’s a Democrat Hoax, starting at 2:23 in this video. *sneer*
            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NYUP95sw1IM

            NOW he says he always knew it was a pandemic!!
            NOW he activates the National Guard in CA, NY and WA … paid by federal …. under command of their governors!!!

            YOU CAN’T EVEN KEEP UP WITH THE TOP NEWS!

            Vice President Pence, a former governor and the leader of the federal response to the coronavirus, urged Americans on Monday to respect state and local restrictions that are in many cases tougher than those imposed by the Trump administration.

            “We made it clear to the governors that this president and this administration fully supports decisions that governors are making in communities and states that are particularly impacted by the spread of the coronavirus and we are grateful for their efforts,” Pence said

        2. Haha. Dude. You were arguing with a guy selling metal detectors, and now you’re snapping at someone who agrees with you!

          I don’t know about hoaxes, but I do know not to listen to your irrational bullshit.

          Haha

        3. Hahahahaha, you can’t even read other leftist comments correctly. Hahahahaha

  7. Yep, and the PRIMARY reason they don’t want you getting tested (IMHO), is because it will actually show just how LOW the death rate is! I have NO doubt COVID-19 is highly infectious, however, the death rate is MUCH lower than that of even the seasonal flu as long as it is handled properly and you get treated.

    Fouci is nothing but a deep state shill! It was proven by his reaction when Trump referred to the Deep State in his presser!

    1. It certainly seems that way, even if it’s a little tinfoil for me. If everybody in the country could order a test and find out they’ve already been exposed to this and got over it, the “crisis” would evaporate overnight.

    2. It doesnt even appear to be that infectious. South korea has tested at a 4% positive rate. The US is around 12% of the population showing symptoms that have been tested.

    3. Fouci is nothing but a deep state shill! It was proven by his reaction when Trump referred to the Deep State in his presser!

      FOUCI RIDICULED HIM.
      AS I NOW RIDICULE YOU 🙂

      1. Coronacoofs will be ridiculing you soon, Hihnsano. Make sure to keep hiding in your shitbox apartment like a bitch!

    4. “however, the death rate is MUCH lower than that of even the seasonal flu”

      Not going to disagree, just adding more depth: The age dimension on this one seems to skew to being potentially *more* dangerous than flu to the elderly and infirm, and virtually harmless to the youngest and fittest. The overall population CFR is continuing to fall and will be in the same ballpark as the flu, but we will need more specific protocols to protect the most vulnerable when there are future outbreaks.

      1. The younger are about 40% of the elderly, hardly harmless, and the younger they are , the more people they tend to be around, on average.

  8. No JFree yet with his PANIC!!!! flag and his orgasm over ruining the economy?

    1. Him and Hihn have the same crib notes, was making me laugh hard earlier.

      1. STILL laughing, Jesse? *smirk*

        BILL GATES PREDICTED A VIRUS CATASTROPHE …. IN 2015

        “We are not ready for the next epidemic,” said Gates in 2015. (He) mentioned the details about Ebola and stated that “the problem was not that system did not work well enough but the problem was we did not have any system at all.”

        In the Ted Talk titled ‘The next outbreak? We’re not ready’, Bill Gates predicted that the next outbreak would be more devastating than Ebola.

        “The failure to prepare could allow the next epidemic to be dramatically more devastating than Ebola.”

        Gates cited the fact that Ebola did not reach many urban cities or else the results would have been greater. “Next time we might not be so lucky,” His words have somehow predicted the Coronavirus epidemic’s dangers.

        COVID-19 has barely begun … and has ALREADY hit major urban centers, worldwide.

        President Trump deserves praise for reversing two months of delays and denials ,… “It’s a Democrat hoax” … “It will magically disappear.”

        The President now endorses and supports the severe restrictions by governors in CA, NY and WA … He has activated the National Guard in those states … paid by federal .. but under command of the governors. And he’s shut down his new critics, saying he will watch results for 15 days, before any further decisions.

        He’s even considering a special enrollment period for Obamacare, to help uninsured Americans cope with this crisis.

        Vice President Pence, a former governor and the leader of the federal response to the coronavirus, urged Americans on Monday to respect state and local restrictions that are in many cases tougher than those imposed by the Trump administration.

        “We made it clear to the governors that this president and this administration fully supports decisions that governors are making in communities and states that are particularly impacted by the spread of the coronavirus and we are grateful for their efforts,” Pence said

  9. Are US Influenza related deaths still higher than Worldwide COVID-19 related deaths? I quit paying attention when the media flipped the switch from oblivious mode to panic mode.

    1. 23k US influenza deaths in 11 weeks. So yes. Including 390k hospitalizations from it. US numbers only:

      https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

      1. Influenza HAS A VACCINE, and 100% of Americans exposed, MOST IMMUNE.
        COVID-19 has NO VACCINE, NOBODY IMMUNE, only 3% exposed (so far)

        ***CDC SAYS YOU ARE FULL OF SHIT … COVID-19 IS FAR MORE DEADLY THAN THE FLU.

        COVID-19 DEATH RATE WORSE THAN FLU
        ***********”Less than two years ago, the seasonal flu was especially deadly. It killed an estimated 61,000 Americans, but it didn’t overwhelm health care workers and hospitals, as COVID-19 did in Italy and threatens to in the U.S. Those people (with seasonal flu) were spread out from November to April or May. Our healthcare system is designed to handle that kind of load. Not so with COVID-19.”

        “The challenge with COVID-19 is we are all eligible to get sick and spread the disease all at the same time.”

        ELIGIBLE, because none are immune, unlike seasonal flu. DUH

        COVID-19 is completely new, is hitting on top of the seasonal flu, has no vaccine and clearly warrants the stronger response because nobody is Immune. YOUR SUCK LIES ARE A THREAT TO HUMAN LIFE … WHICH IS WHY EVEN TRUMP REJECTS YOUR BULLSHIT,

        1. Fuck off and die, Hihn.

          1. That screeching has been FAILING for over two years.
            That puts you among the biggest failures on earth!

  10. People on this comment page need to check the facts BEFORE they post

    The mortality rate depends on which country you live in. In the US it is currently about 1.1% In China, however, it was over 4%, while it Italy it is now over 9% (as I type Italy has 63,927 covid19 cases and a 6077 deaths, which is around 9.5%).

    Don’t believe me? Look it up and do the math.

    1. Which science book are you using chicken little?

    2. “People on this comment page need to check the facts BEFORE they post”

      Chicken littles need to justify ruining the economy for years over a cold.

      1. “A cold”? So you think all those deaths are a liberal hoax?

        1. “A cold”? So you think all those deaths are a liberal hoax?

          Yeah, a bit worse than a cold. Nothing like what lefty chicken littles wish for.

          1. On what grounds do you base that claim? Even Trump has stopped calling it a hoax. Is he now a “lefty chicken little”?

            1. Stephen54321
              March.23.2020 at 11:14 pm
              “On what grounds do you base that claim? Even Trump has stopped calling it a hoax. Is he now a “lefty chicken little”?”

              Called on bullshit yet once more:
              You’ve yet to support one of your claims with data, you pathetic piece of shit. And you again claim Trump called it a “Hoax”; called on bullshit again.
              Fuck off and die, asshole.

              1. PROOF: Sevo a lying sack of shit.

                And you again claim Trump called it a “Hoax”; called on bullshit again.

                TRUMP CALLS IT A HOAX, STARTING AT 2:33 IN THIS VIDEO, GOMER
                https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NYUP95sw1IM

                NOW, he says he always knew it was a pandemic! As crazy as Sevo@

              2. Sevo: “You’ve yet to support one of your claims with data…

                Actually, I have. I’ve posted links in other comments and stats. Where your supporting evidence?

                Plus you keep on misquoting people. Like…

                Sevo: “And you again claim Trump called it a ‘Hoax’

                Actually I claimed exactly the OPPOSITE! That he had STOPPED calling it a hoax.

                Didn’t you read the very post of mine you responded to? Or is English not your first language? (Your first wouldn’t be Russian by any chance?)

                Sevo: “Fuck off and die, asshole.

                Temper, temper! You’re losing it, Sevo. Tell Putin your need the night off.

        2. BTW, are you tired of being called on your bullshit or just ignoring it when you are?
          It’s tough being a lefty fucking liar when you’re constantly called on it and your only ally is some idiot posting ransom notes as supposed ‘comments’.
          Fuck off and die of TDS; make the world a better place.

          1. It could be a bot. Some of the posts he’s replying to demonstrate a lack of comprehension, or a blind panic and a need to fling shit, even at people who agree with him. Kinda odd.

            1. Could be.
              The handle X-54321 suggests it’s not a human choice and the refusal to respond when called on bullshit might also suggest same.

              1. FYI, my handle is not “X-54321”.

                Sevo: “The handle X-54321 suggests it’s not a human choice

                Says the guy/girl/bot who uses “Sevo” as a handle.

            2. EISTAU Gree-Vance: “It could be a bot.

              Says someone who makes generic, sweeping statements withOUT any actual specific to back up those claims up. Just like a bot might. That said…

              EISTAU Gree-Vance: “Some of the posts he’s replying to demonstrate a lack of comprehension

              Are you suggesting that Sevo’s posts (who is one person I replied to) “demonstrate a lack of comprehension”?

              Someone I don’t think Sevo picked up on that backhanded insult.

              EISTAU Gree-Vance: “a need to fling shit, even at people who agree with him.

              True, Sevo does like “flinging shit”. Shit like “lefty fucking liar”.

          2. Sevo: “…are you tired of being called on your bullshit or just ignoring it when you are?

            All you’re doing is demonstrating your own ignorance. Your claims are basically from the same sad school of conspiracies which keep claiming 9/11 was a Deep State plot and that the Twin Towers weren’t actually destroyed by planes flying into them but from explosive charges planted in them by some nefarious American organisation.

            ASs fort all the ad homs…

            Sevo: “It’s tough being a lefty fucking liar…

            Are Trump and all those GOP members of Congress who now accept the reality of the danger posed by the pandemic “lefty fucking liars” a

            Most of the world now accepts the reality if that pandemic and its danger but not you. You still think it’s all a hoax.

            Yet all you can do is jeer and smear those of us who aren’t inhabiting your little bubble of ignorance as “lefties” and “liars”. Frankly, it’s sad and pathetic. Or as one Jack Nicholson’s character said said it in A Few Good Men: “You can’t handle the truth.”

            Well, we’ll see whether you’re still in there when you or someone you care for contracts the virus.

            Sevo: “your only ally is some idiot posting ransom notes as supposed ‘comments’.

            You need to get out of your bubble more. Elsewhere on the Net, even among Republicans, your point of view is now a rather teensy minority.

      2. A COLD????

        COVID-19 DEATH RATE 25X WORSE THAN SWINE FLU
        ***********”Less than two years ago, the seasonal flu was especially deadly. It killed an estimated 61,000 Americans, but it didn’t overwhelm health care workers and hospitals, as COVID-19 did in Italy and threatens to in the U.S. Those people (with seasonal flu) were spread out from November to April or May. Our healthcare system is designed to handle that kind of load. Not so with COVID-19.”

        “The challenge with COVID-19 is we are all eligible to get sick and spread the disease all at the same time.”

        ELIGIBLE, because none are immune, unlike seasonal flu. DUH

        Last week, Trump said this at a news conference in the Oval Office: “If you go back and look at the swine flu and what happened with the swine flu, you’ll see how many people died and how actually nothing was done for such a long period of time, as people were dying all over the place.

        STILL BLAMING OBAMA – LIKE OBAMA KEPT BLAMING BUSH
        Dying BECAUSE nothing was done! And this is 25 times worse (keep reading)

        Data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention track the increase of H1N1 swine flu in 2009 from the day of the first death – April 28th, 2009 — compared with the rise of COVID-19 since the first U.S. coronavirus death was reported in Washington on Feb. 29.

        … the CDC had confirmed 4,226 COVID-19 cases in 16 days since the first death.

        At the same stage in 2009, the CDC had tallied 3,352 H1N1 cases.

        But, contrary to Trump’s claims, the death rate for COVID-19 has far outpaced H1N1 over the same span.

        The CDC had confirmed 75 COVID-19 deaths through Monday. By contrast, 16 days after the first swine flu death, there were only three H1N1 deaths reported to the CDC.

        COVID-19 is 25 times more deadly than swine flu

        The CDC estimates about 12,000 Americans ended up dying from swine flu between April 2009 and April 2010.

        12,000 x 25 = 300,000
        For low IQs, see simple charts at the source

        **”… (swine flu) didn’t go away. Many people don’t realize it’s now part of the seasonal flu and covered by the annual flu vaccine. … COVID-19 is completely new, is hitting on top of the seasonal flu, has no vaccine and clearly warrants the stronger response because nobody is immune. “The challenge with COVID-19 is we are all eligible to get sick and spread the disease all at the same time

        ***********”Less than two years ago, the seasonal flu was especially deadly. It killed an estimated 61,000 Americans, but it didn’t overwhelm health care workers and hospitals, as COVID-19 did in Italy and threatens to in the U.S. Those people (with seasonal flu) were spread out from November to April or May. Our healthcare system is designed to handle that kind of load. Not so with COVID-19.”

        1. Hihnsanity!

          (Chortle)

          1. WHO LINKS TO PROOF?
            WHO GIGGLES AND CHILDISH NAME-CALLING?

            1. Who acts like the lobotomy was unsuccessful?

              1. Would a dude who goes by TheLibertyTruthTeller lie to you? Duh.

                (Chortle)

                1. Pretty good rule:
                  If the sign says “World Famous”, it ain’t. You’d have heard of it.
                  If the fucking piece of shit claims ‘truth teller’, the piece of shit is full of shit.

                2. It’s THE LINK … to UNDENIABLE PROOF
                  *smirk*

                  1. No, it’s incoherent ramblings.

                    1. It’s THE LINK … to UNDENIABLE PROOF
                      *smirk*

                      No, it’s incoherent ramblings.

                      Another major screwup!
                      Of 487 words … 485 are the source — CDC data and conclusions … that prove you wrong (on top of your screwup)

                      My two words area question: A COLD??

            2. That’s rich coming from a crybully like you.

              1. WHO LINKS TO PROOF?
                WHO GIGGLES AND CHILDISH NAME-CALLING?


                CORONA VIRUS DEATH RATE IS 25x GREATER THAN SWINE FLU”

    3. These morons can’t do basic math. That is a big part of why they are morons.

  11. “and adaptive behavior affects the transmission rate.”

    Which contrary to the claims of a number of so called experts that have been in the news, is NOT worse than the seasonal flu. In fact, the transmission rate appears to be 1 or 2 orders of magnitude lower than the seasonal flu.

    Using the CDC’s preliminary estimates for the 2019-2020 flu season, I calculate a daily new case rate for seasonal flu in the range of 150,000 to 200,000

    1. Seasonal flu has
      100% exposure, all Americans
      A vaccine.

      COVID-10 has
      Only 3% exposure, so far.
      NOBODY immune (except those few already infected and survived)
      The PURPOSE of restrictions is to reduce the spread of COVID-19, until a vaccine can be developed, which will take 12-18 months.

      We KNOW this is ALREADY worse than Ebola (without stiffer restrictions.)
      Well, SOME of us are educated on this.
      Now you too can have a clue!

      BILL GATES PREDICTED A VIRUS CATASTROPHE …. IN 2015

      “We are not ready for the next epidemic,” said Gates in 2015. (He) mentioned the details about Ebola and stated that “the problem was not that system did not work well enough but the problem was we did not have any system at all.”

      In the Ted Talk titled ‘The next outbreak? We’re not ready’, Bill Gates predicted that the next outbreak would be more devastating than Ebola.

      “The failure to prepare could allow the next epidemic to be dramatically more devastating than Ebola.”

      Gates cited the fact that Ebola did not reach many urban cities or else the results would have been greater. “Next time we might not be so lucky,” His words have somehow predicted the Coronavirus epidemic’s dangers.

      COVID-19 has barely begun … and has ALREADY hit major urban centers, worldwide.

      President Trump deserves praise for reversing two months of delays and denials ,… “It’s a Democrat hoax” … “It will magically disappear.”
      The President now endorses and supports the severe restrictions by governors in CA, NY and WA … He has activated the National Guard in those states … paid by federal .. but under command of the governors. And he’s shut down his new critics, saying he will watch results for 15 days, before any further decisions.

      He’s even considering a special enrollment period for Obamacare, to help uninsured Americans cope with this crisis.

      1. Fuck off and die, Hihn.

      2. “COVID-10 has Only 3% exposure, so far.”

        How do you know this? Every single expert from the WHO to the CDC to the NIH has been screaming and pleading for testing precisely because we do NOT know how widespread the exposure is or has been. Given the new information we are seeing about the delay of information from China in the early days (it wasn’t months as some claim, but they did not sound the alarm when they should have) it’s possible that the virus has been here far longer than we’ve assumed, which would lead to far more widespread exposure.

        1. You don’t know what exposure means
          How many people have been “exposed” to the virus. 3% may be a LITTLE off by now. 100% have been exposed to influenza.

          The numbers are almost irrelevant.
          Do you really deny that far less than 100% of Americans have been exposed to corvid?

  12. My fear is that we have entered an era when the media isn’t just obnoxious and tedious, but is actively in control of the entire narrative. I have a terrible feeling that those who have promulgated these economic lock downs of lightly populated places with fragile economies, will not re-think them until the media gives it’s permission. And, since the media feeds on crisis, that will certainly be too late.

  13. Ummmmm, REALITY

    BILL GATES PREDICTED A VIRUS CATASTROPHE …. IN 2015

    “We are not ready for the next epidemic,” said Gates in 2015. (He) mentioned the details about Ebola and stated that “the problem was not that system did not work well enough but the problem was we did not have any system at all.”

    In the Ted Talk titled ‘The next outbreak? We’re not ready’, Bill Gates predicted that the next outbreak would be more devastating than Ebola.

    “The failure to prepare could allow the next epidemic to be dramatically more devastating than Ebola.”

    Gates cited the fact that Ebola did not reach many urban cities or else the results would have been greater. “Next time we might not be so lucky,” His words have somehow predicted the Coronavirus epidemic’s dangers.

    COVID-19 has barely begun … and has ALREADY hit major urban centers, worldwide.

    President Trump deserves praise for reversing two months of delays and denials ,… “It’s a Democrat hoax” … “It will magically disappear.”
    The President now endorses and supports the severe restrictions by governors in CA, NY and WA … He has activated the National Guard in those states … paid by federal .. but under command of the governors. And he’s shut down his new critics, saying he will watch results for 15 days, before any further decisions.

    He’s even considering a special enrollment period for Obamacare, to help uninsured Americans cope with this crisis.

    1. The ravings of a madman, ladies and gentlemen!

      1. GOOBER SAYS BILL GATES IS A MADMAN. *sneer*

        1. Raving madman has poor reading comprehension, ladies and gentlemen.

        2. Fuck off and die, Hihn.

  14. Vice President Pence, a former governor and the leader of the federal response to the coronavirus, urged Americans on Monday to respect state and local restrictions that are in many cases tougher than those imposed by the Trump administration.

    “We made it clear to the governors that this president and this administration fully supports decisions that governors are making in communities and states that are particularly impacted by the spread of the coronavirus and we are grateful for their efforts,” Pence said

    1. Make the world a better and more intelligent place; fuck off and die.

      1. Trump AGAIN exposed as lying … about the FDA this time… by the FDA Commissioner! It never ends.

        FDA Head Dials Back Trump’s Timetable (short video)
        “FDA Commissioner Stephen Hahn talks about the timelines for a pair of new treatments being considered to help combat the coronavirus pandemic. After Trump claimed the use of a drug to fight malaria — hydroxychloroquine — would be available “almost immediately” Hahn said a LARGE clinical trial was needed first,” with Trump at his shoulder!

        How many times have we seen Trump make a PHONY covid-19 claim … only to be immediately corrected, “to his face” (he’s at their shoulder)

        Another inconvenient fact, to ENRAGE Sevo. SUCH FUN!

        1. Fuck off and die, Hihn

        2. The dumb hick MAGA ‘tard don’t care about his lies.

  15. WTF
    This will end in a month tops

    1. Unfortunately, the results of the disease are likely close to that.
      The result of the lefty-manufactured panic are going to last far longer, and while it was manufactured by the left, the left will blame it on Trump.

  16. A not-so-modest proposal:
    The whiny chicken littles; Hihn, JFree, the newest piece of shit Stephen54321 and other lefty scumbags:
    Please stay home. Stay there always. Do not come out the door; the boogey man might get you.
    And please leave the rest of us alone.
    Fuck off and die of what ails you.

  17. I am just spit-balling here, but to balance dollars and lives, how about this? 1. You get all those biotechs to give everyone the $10 corona virus home test kit regardless of their current health. 2. Anyone who tests positive and has not been sick can repeat the test in 14 days and they will be deemed to have cleared the virus and are now immune and not spreading it is negative again. Those are the people who can go back to work and keep the economy going – the Immune Workforce. 3. In the meantime anyone who has tested negative or is actively stick stay in quarantine. The immune people can deliver goods to the quarantined or take care of them medically. 4. The people in quarantine stay there until they get sick, get the virus and clear it or get immunized once a vaccine is available. This way the hospitals are not overwhelmed and there is an actual economy to return to once this is over.

    1. Nice program; you want the government to handle that?
      How about a spit-ball suggestion that has some market concerns?

      1. I guess “economy” and “market” are vastly different terms.

        Paying for these cheap and rapid tests rather than throwing trillions of dollars at businesses and public services that are shut down and giving Americans $1,000 each (which is like giving them a row-boat for a tsunami of a financial catastrophuck), would identify the 80% of the people who will get/already got the virus and have/had mild symptoms and can go back to work, quickly. Have you ever gone to work with a cold? It’s pretty easy and fairly common. The “market” (as in preserving it while keeping hospitals from being overrun like we are seeing in Italy – https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-they-call-it-the-apocalypse-inside-italys-hardest-hit-hospital-11960597) is really the main fucking point to this spit-ball suggestion.

        But yes, I agree. The government would find ways to mess up this simple strategy, too.

  18. For all intent and purposes, there is no national lockdown in most parts of the United States. All the essential retail and restaurants remain open, meaning millions of Americans are legally allowed to leave their homes to interact with other people out in the open. We’re not using the national guard and drones to keep people home (not yet), and testing is still largely voluntary.

    In So Cal enough people are living their normal live outdoors that LA mayor Garcetti have to shame them publicly. So what will it be – will millions of Americans die because the disease continues to spread? I go to Walmart every week and no one there enforces social distancing. I’ve seen maybe one lady say “stay away from me” and that’s saying a lot in a pushy city like LA. If that’s how it is in LA, I can’t imagine how it’s like more redder parts of the country.

    If states like Vermont and Idaho aren’t reporting massive spikes in deaths can cases in 2 weeks, we just have to accept that NY and CA were the Italies of the United States, on a somewhat smaller scale. And that there’s a limit how much the virus spreads.

    1. Ever hear of Washington State?
      One of THREE states, where Trump has activated the National Guard … under TOTAL command of their governors .. paid by federal … to assist in those governor’s efforts.

      And this!

      Vice President Pence, a former governor and the leader of the federal response to the coronavirus, urged Americans on Monday to respect state and local restrictions that are in many cases tougher than those imposed by the Trump administration.

      “We made it clear to the governors that this president and this administration fully supports decisions that governors are making in communities and states that are particularly impacted by the spread of the coronavirus and we are grateful for their efforts,” Pence said

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  21. Those who think COVID-19 is like the common cold might want to take a look at this information video which explains more about it:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OOJqHPfG7pA

    1. Thanks. That is awesome

  22. Remember the three groups we have now:
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    2) Not working but getting paid, less private mostly government
    3) Not working or getting paid or greatly reduced, that is they have been forced shut

    Folks in groups 1 and 2 don’t give a shit about group 3 at he moment because they are the majority. The group 2 government folks are oh so snarky why they make up insulting meme’s about group 3’s concerns while on their paid government check vacation.

    But group 3 is increasing in size and also getting pissed off as the pajama clad paid in full government workers scold them.

    Its not going to last. I say right now two weeks more tops.

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