Coronavirus

The Trump Administration Presents a False Choice Between Current COVID-19 Control Measures and 'No Intervention'

The real action in the coming months lies between those two extremes.

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The COVID-19 projections presented at a White House briefing yesterday imagine two scenarios, one utterly fanciful and the other intolerably vague. With "no intervention," the main graph says, the United States could see 1.5 million to 2.2 million deaths from the disease. But "with intervention," it says, the number of COVID-19 deaths plummets to somewhere between 100,000 and 240,000.

The "no intervention" scenario is clearly counterfactual, since it ignores all the steps governments, businesses, and individuals already have taken to curtail the spread of COVID-19. The "intervention" scenario assumes continued social distancing of the sort currently recommended by the federal government and enforced by state and local governments. What's missing? Anything in between, which is the area that really matters for policy makers.

Governments right now are not deciding whether to do nothing or do something. Rather, they are confronting choices about which restrictions should be imposed, where they make sense, and how long they should be maintained. In this context, a simple binary choice between "intervention" and "no intervention" is highly misleading, since it obscures myriad options for confronting the epidemic, including measures more carefully tailored than mass business closures and stay-at-home orders. Sooner or later, those options will have to be weighed, taking into account not only the deaths they might prevent (or allow) but also their economic impact, which under the current approach is already severe and could get much worse.

In addition to presenting a false choice, the Trump administration's framing relies on assumptions that may prove to be mistaken. One important variable is the number of Americans who will ultimately be infected by the COVID-19 virus. Another is the case fatality rate (CFR).

Because existing data are very limited in the absence of wide testing, we can do little better than guess at those numbers. Yet getting them wrong has profound implications, potentially leading to an overreaction that wrecks the economy while saving relatively few lives or (less likely, given the current political climate) an underreaction that costs many lives and allows hospitals to be overwhelmed by COVID-19 cases.

The White House seems to be relying on projections by the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), some of which were included in yesterday's presentation. The IHME model, which assumes that current policies are maintained until June, predicts that "an estimated 97% of the population of the United States will still be susceptible to the disease" at that point, which implies that 3 percent of Americans, or nearly 10 million people, will have been infected.

If that happens, we can be pretty sure it will not be reflected in the official numbers, which include only confirmed cases. That tally underestimates the true number of infections, because many people with mild to nonexistent symptoms, which are typical of COVID-19, will not seek medical treatment or testing. The extent of that gap, which is by definition unknown, is crucial in estimating the true CFR, which federal public health officials say could be anywhere from 0.1 percent, making COVID-19 about as lethal as the seasonal flu, to 1 percent, making it 10 times as deadly.

The IHME projects that "approximately 81,000 people will die from the virus" by late June if current policies are maintained, which implies a CFR of about 0.8 percent. Projections by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) assume the same CFR, while modeling by researchers at Imperial College in London is based on a slightly higher rate of 0.9 percent. Both of those estimates are near the upper end of the range that U.S. officials consider reasonable.

That does not mean those estimates are wrong, but their accuracy makes a big difference. If the CFR turns out to be 0.5 percent, the number of deaths in the IHME scenario of about 10 million infections by June would be fewer than 50,000 rather than 81,000. A CFR of 0.2 percent (still twice the estimated CFR for the seasonal flu) would reduce the death toll at that point to fewer than 20,000. By comparison, the CDC estimates that influenza has killed 12,000 to 61,000 Americans each year since 2010.

The true CFR matters even more when you consider alternatives to current COVID-19 control measures. It is hard to weigh the risks and benefits of relaxing restrictions—whether in May (as currently envisioned by the Trump administration), in June (as some experts suggest would be possible with wide testing), or even later than that (as assumed in the Imperial College's "best-case" scenario)—when you don't know the potential cost in terms of additional deaths, which could number in the thousands, tens of thousands, or hundreds of thousands, depending on your assumptions. One thing we know for sure is that the economic burden on millions of innocent people will be magnified with each passing week.

It seems that many people who are pessimistic about the COVID-19 death toll want to have it both ways. When it comes to justifying immediate, sweeping, and sustained control measures, they emphasize how quickly the virus spreads. But high estimates of the virus's reproduction number (the number of people the average carrier can be expected to infect) imply a bigger gap between confirmed cases and total infections, which in turn implies a lower CFR.

There is also a tension between the short-term goal of avoiding a hospital crisis by reducing transmission of the virus and the longer-term goal of mitigating the impact of COVID-19 through herd immunity, which requires widespread infection. After three months of lockdowns, the IHME model predicts, 97 percent of the population will "still be susceptible to the disease."

I do not pretend to have the answers. But given the high level of uncertainty, I am skeptical of people who claim they do, and it seems to me that the potentially devastating economic effects of aggressive and prolonged interventions have not received the consideration they deserve. Eventually we will have a clearer picture of the price exacted both by the epidemic and by efforts to fight it. But that knowledge will come too late for it to figure in the decisions politicians are making now.

NEXT: Another Trump-Appointed Judge Benchslaps the Trump Administration for Rewriting Federal Gun Laws

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  1. Lying TDS scum. Go lick doorknobs in NYC.

    1. The compromise solution now is, we will fill the churches on Easter Sunday… Eat out at a fancy restaurant on our way home from church, to celebrate Easter some more… Take the kids to crawl all over each other fighting for plastic eggs in the park… And THEN we will get around to licking doorknobs in NYC!

      1. Go do that, except for the doorknob licking. Good luck if you don’t get it, but at least you won’t be harming others.

        1. /Sarcasm was implied…

          I think a middle ground can be had. Flatten the curve for a while, and try not to totally squash the economy in the long term!

          Flatten the curve with free-will compliance as much as possible, and minimize too much Government Almighty heavy-handedness in the meantime! Need some balance as usual…

          1. “and try not to totally squash the economy in the long term!”

            Too late.

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    2. Well, someone is a crankypants. What do you hope to achieve by spouting meaningless invective rather than making a point?

      1. A question better asked of almost every Reason article

    3. The media hacks are now really hoping things don’t get better. Otherwise unemployed Americans might just be coming for them with pitchforks for hysterically nuking our economy.

      1. I noticed that they’ve shifted to “Corona-related deaths” in the last few days. I’m sure it’s nothing.

        1. You mean, like being killed in a car crash while shopping for toilet paper?

          1. Or maybe all deaths since the first pandemic headlines. Cuz only COVID-19 infected people die.

            1. both funny.

    4. It’s disappointing, because most of what Sullum has been writing lately has actually been pretty darn good, so it’s sad to see him resort to erecting such a riduclous strawman.

      At no point did Trump ever say “we should do nothing at all to combat the virus”. It’s a total fabrication.

      1. He didn’t say it, but the curve he showed had that assumption.

    5. Last month: Trump should sit back and let his medical experts take control.

      Trump does.

      This month: trump should stop listening to his experts.

    6. TDS =- Trump Delusional Supporter

      1. Its still Trump Derangement Syndrome. Lefties are riddled with it like herpes.

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  2. “The Trump Administration”, eh? How about pretty much every government around, from the UK, to New York, to whatever. Because it isn’t the administration that is pushing these numbers- it is a couple of researchers who created a very bad model.

    Trump tried urging calm. Tried encouraging people to do the “in between” type stuff. And people like you quickly said that he wasn’t taking it seriously.

    Simply put, the desire to pin on Trump- or any politician- any bad thing to happen will merely encourage them to clamp down the hardest. Because you can always say “Hey look at the millions dead”, but you will never be able to point out the millions who wouldn’t have died anyways. And so all levels of government are going to over react, and over react hard. Because you “journalists” won’t let them do anything else.

    1. Precisely. Well said. Trump is either a panic merchant or a non-chalant ignoramus, depending on whatever narrative the TDS crowd wants to roll with *that* day.

      These “journalists” would blame Trump in any event so watching them whine about Trump doing what they condemned him yesterday for *not* doing, and vice versa, is particularly infuriating.

      Fucking clowns.

      1. Ya and you wouldn’t be doing that if this was a Democrat?!? Of course you would. You partisans are stupid as fuck and not really Americans. You are in fact pathetic hypocrites.

        1. You probably get so many high fives at your HS democrat club.

          1. Not lately. Sheeple like him have to isolate themselves so they dont spread the delusional defective disorder.

    2. The ones over-reacting should be held to account, but journalists aren’t interested in actually speaking truth to power.

    3. No, not *every* government around. Sweden, the Netherlands and Japan have chosen more relaxed protocols that don’t shut down non-essential businesses. The UK was originally set to go with this model, too, until the media pressured them into a lockdown. I’m going to skip over Japan, which has low rates, because I don’t see reliable data; but so far Sweden and the Netherlands aren’t doing worse than countries with lockdowns.

      I think Pres. Trump would personally like to move to something more relaxed (“the cure can’t be worse than the disease”), but there’s a lot of political pressure on him not to, and in the end its up to the state governors and local mayors. Maybe after April, there might be some change.

      1. Um….you might want to check your premise = Sweden

        They changed their minds, based on the data.

        1. Japan’s moving in that direction, as well.

      2. We need a lockdown. Of democrats. Forever. This country won’t survive with so many of them.

        1. Suppression = Fascism

  3. So does everyone else. If you don’t believe me try telling your typical CNN-viewer all these lockdowns are overkill, their response will be something along the lines of “So we should just do nothing and let the virus kill everyone?”

    1. “”So we should just do nothing and let the virus kill everyone?”””

      The level of pants shitting explains the run on toilet paper.

      1. Brilliant!

    2. Plenty of Republicans feel the same.

    3. What you’re saying then is Republicans are spineless and giving in to the left panic.

      1. “What you’re saying then is Republicans are spineless and giving in to the left panic.”

        – That’s exactly what I’m seeing; Even disappointingly President Trump; who could get some credit for hesitating – but caved to the Nazi’s when the CARES Act signing came into play. Thomas Masse proved to have more backbone.

        1. True. That bill is bullshit. The democrats should have all been taken to GitMo as traitors for ever voting for it.

          1. It was a Republican bill. *smirk*

            1. A Republican bill written entirely contradictory to the GOP platform and in consistency with the DNC platform.

              1. DENIAL IS A SEVERE MENTAL DISORDER

                Shitlord: The democrats should have all been taken to GitMo as traitors for ever voting for it.

                LTT: It was a Republican bill. *smirk*

                TLL2000: A Republican bill written entirely contradictory to the GOP platform and in consistency with the DNC platform.

                That’s crazy, but at least you agree that Shitlord was … full of shit.

                A Republican bill written entirely contradictory to the GOP platform and in consistency with the DNC platform.

                1. Pelosi’s bill. Do you to actually follow these things?

            2. Pelosi’s bill.

              1. ALREADY PROVED YOU WRONG, Shitlord Woodchipper
                YOU POSTED YOUR IGNORANCE TWICE, ONE MINUTE APART!

                Pelosi’s bill.

                One more time:
                https://reason.com/2020/04/01/the-trump-administration-presents-a-false-choice-between-current-covid-19-control-measures-and-no-intervention/#comment-8194398

                Your hate-spewing, primitive, tribal bigotry has burned you yet again. But you’ll keep snarling, right?

      2. Yes dipshit. Thats the whole fucking problem. Republicans are acting just as pathetically cowardly as the democrats are.

        1. Hey, LOSER!

          Rasmussen Polling is the most prominent Republican pollster

          VOTERS STRONGLY ENDORSE FINES, BAN ON INTERSTATE TRAVEL
          Voters are turning hardline in the face of the coronavirus. Two-out-of-three now want to ban travel between states and fine those who violate social distancing guidelines.

          Again … to minimize the risk to themselves and their loved ones, as the death rate accelerates.

          Accelerating death count
          Mar 26 — First 1000 deaths (26 days)
          Mar 27-28 – Next 1,000 … Deaths double in TWO days
          Apr2, 12:37 PM – 5,300 total. Deaths up 530% in 6-1/2 days.

          Your ilk is all alone. Shaking your fists at the sky, and shrieking at the clouds.

  4. Of course, you’ll find the “no intervention” figure in a lot of liberal editorials and news stories as well, because it makes them scarier, and supports the “Orange Man Bad” rhetoric.

    1. “…supports the “Orange Man Bad” rhetoric.”

      I, for one, welcome our new “Orange Man Bad”!!!

      Orange Man bad?!? He BAD, all right! He SOOO BAD, He be GOOD! He be GREAT! He Make America Great Again!

      We KNOW He can Make America Great Again, because, as a bad-ass businessman, He Made Himself and His Family Great Again! He Pussy Grabber in Chief!

      See The Atlantic article by using the below search-string in quotes:
      “The Many Scandals of Donald Trump: A Cheat Sheet” or this one…

      https://reason.com/2019/09/02/republicans-choose-trumpism-over-property-rights-and-the-rule-of-law/

      He pussy-grab His creditors in 7 bankruptcies, His illegal sub-human workers ripped off of pay on His building projects, and His “students” in His fake Get-Rich-like-Me realty schools, and so on. So, He has a GREAT record of ripping others off! So SURELY He can rip off other nations, other ethnic groups, etc., in trade wars and border wars, for the benefit of ALL of us!!!

      All Hail to THE Pussy Grabber in Chief!!!

      Most of all, HAIL the Chief, for having revoked karma! What comes around, will no longer go around!!! The Donald has figured out that all of the un-Americans are SOOO stupid, that we can pussy-grab them all day, every day, and they will NEVER think of pussy-grabbing us right back!

      Orange Man Bad-Ass Pussy-Grabber all right!

      1. Jesus christ, could you NOT spam the same cut and paste job every time someone says that?

        1. As soon as they stop with the “Orange Man Bad” stupidity!!!

          “Orange Man Bad” as a summary from conservatives, of page after page after page, detail after detail, testimony upon testimony, of HOW and WHY Orange Man is a lying hypocritical narcissistic and corrupt, self-centered weasel, who is ruining the good reputation (for years if not decades) of the USA, internationally, shows the utter contempt that conservatives hold the rest of us in! “Here, dummy, I can summarize ALL of the encyclopedic knowledge that has been gathered concerning Der TrumpfenFuhrer, so that YOU (dumbshit) will NOT have to trouble your pretty little head, studying all that boring stuff! It just amounts to Orange Man Bad, end of story!”

          Don’t study medicine or boring medical texts… I will summarize it for you! “The human body is made of icky pus and smegma, slimy blood and mucus, and icky poop!”

          Law summary: “He or she who habeas the corpus, must take proper care of it.”

          Computers? Stop studying, you fool! “Learn to code; garbage in, garbage out; just be logical!”

          Electrical Hardware Engineering? “Don’t stick your diode in an anode! Sparks is as sparks does!”

          And then conservatives and other Trumptatorship worshippers and ignorance worshippers have the NERVE to say, “We need more SKILLED AND TALENTED immigrants and fewer ignorant ones coming into the USA!”!

          1. Fuck, you’re such a spastic.

            1. That comment is unfair and derogatory and I think you should apologise. Spastics aren’t that bad.

              1. Need not look any further than, “new-york-times-report”

                That “arrogant, greedy-pig, selfish asshole” has………
                – Set a record number of regulation cuts
                – Signed the biggest package of tax cuts
                – Cancelled the wildly subsidized Clean Power Plan
                – Put Constitution believers in the Supreme Court (Gorsuch & Kavanaugh)
                – Replaced NAFTA with the U.S.-Mexico Trade Deal
                – Withdrew from the job-killing Paris Climate Accord
                – Stopped the N. Korean inter-ballistic nuclear weaponry
                – Launched a commission to stop subsidizing foreign trade

                1. MASSIVE tax cut, yet SLOWER economic growth than Obama!

                  Remember, Trump started from the longest recovery ever, for an incoming President … from Obama, who started from the 2nd worst economy in the past 80 years.

                  Stopped the N. Korean inter-ballistic nuclear weaponry

                  FAILED!

                  *May 4, 2019 North Korea launched several short-range projectiles from the vicinity of Wonsan on the country’s east coast,[71] one possibly a Russian Iskander missile which can make course corrections during its flight.[72]

                  *May 9, 2019 North Korea launched two short-range ballistic missiles[72] from the vicinity of Sinori in North Pyongan Province (launch area also, in another source, identified as Kusong[72]) at 4:29 p.m. and 4:49 p.m. local time.[73]

                  *July 25, 2019 North Korea launched two short-range ballistic missiles, believed to be of a new design.[74]
                  July 31, 2019 North Korea launched “several” short-range ballistic missiles.[75]

                  *August 2, 2019 North Korea launched two short-range ballistic missiles at 2:59 a.m. and 3:23 a.m. local time.[76]
                  August 24, 2019 North Korea launched two short-range ballistic missiles from Sondok in South Hamgyong Province. Both fell in the Sea of Japan.[77]

                  *September 10, 2019 North Korea launched two short-range projectiles from Kaechon shortly after proposing to resume denuclearization negotiations with the US. Both the projectiles fell into the sea off the North’s east coast.[78]

                  *October 2, 2019 North Korea test-fired a new-type submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) in the waters off Wonsan. The Republic of Korea Armed Forces said the missile, which was dubbed Pukguksong-3, flew about 450 kilometers and reached a maximum altitude of 910 kilometers, making it an intermediate-range ballistic missile. It fell into the exclusive economic zone of Japan off Shimane Prefecture. North Korea said the launch was successful.[79][80]

                  *October 31, 2019 North Korea test-fired two short-range projectiles from Sunchon at 4:35 p.m. and 4:38 p.m. Both flew around 370 km and reached a maximum altitude of 90 km before falling in the Sea of Japan.[81]
                  November 28, 2019 North Korea test-launches two “short-range projectiles”.[82] Rocket exhaust was visible from Russia [83]

                  *March 2, 2020 North Korea carried out test-launch of two unidentified projectiles from eastwards over the sea from the Wonsan area on the east coast. Projectiles are equipped with an operational range of 240 kilometres, and capable to flew a height of 35 kilometres.[84]

                  1. – after proposing to resume denuclearization negotiations with the US.
                    – making it an intermediate-range ballistic missile
                    – short-range
                    OMG! N. Korea is launching hobby rockets – Trump is a Failure… Give me a break…

                    “recovery …. from Obama” — LMAO!!! That *IS* the new democratic HOAX!!! Who was presiding during the worst of the Great Recession again???? Heck; it didn’t even START getting better until the Republicans had full majority of both houses of Congress.

                    1. MORE MASSIVE SCREWUPS BY TLL2000!

                      Who was presiding during the worst of the Great Recession

                      CAUSED BY BUSH

                      THIS is how crazy he is!

                      Heck; it didn’t even START getting better until the Republicans had full majority of both houses of Congress.

                      (snort) THE RECESSION BEGAN DECEMBER 2007, RAN AN ENTIRE YEAR UNDER BUSH

                      THE RECOVERY WAS JUNE 2009, Obama’s fifth month in office.
                      *Dems held both Houses of Congress!
                      *2011-2013 Democrat House, Republican Senate
                      *2013- 2015 Democrat House, Republican Senate
                      *2015-2017 NOW BOTH REPUBLICAN. SIX YEARS INTO THE RECOVERY!

                      recovery …. from Obama” — LMAO!!!

                      LIE ABOUT MY WORDS. SHAME ON YOU

                      Obama began with the 2nd worst recession in 80 years
                      Trump was handed a RECOVERY, in its 7th year, THE LONGEST RECOVERY EVER FOR AN INCOMING PRESIDENT … AND PISSED IT ALL AWAY.

                      ***PASSED A MASSIVE TAX CUT … BUT, BUT, BUT …
                      ****SLOWER ECONOMIC GROWTH THAN OBAMA.

                      Obama’s GDP growth
                      2014 3.06
                      2015 3.05
                      2016 2.17 = 2.76 Average 8.28% total

                      Trump’s GDP growth
                      2017 = 2.9%
                      2018 = 2.3%
                      2019 = 2.1% = 2.4% Average 7.3% Total

                      https://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjones/2020/02/01/trumps-economic-growth-is-slower-than-obamas-last-3-years/#3416962d4fed
                      ***”For Trump the high point was 2.83% in 2018 when the tax cut seems to have had the largest impact but fell short of Obama’s 2014 and 2015 growth rates of 3.06% and 3.05%, respectively. ”

                      ***TRUMP HAD SLOWER GROWTH THAN OBAMA … IN ALL THREE OF HIS YEARS,

                      ============

                      ***OBAMA CREATED 30% MORE JOBS ! OMG
                      2014 3.01 MILLION
                      2015 2.73
                      2016 2.31 = 8.05 million

                      2017 2.15
                      2018 2.30
                      2019 1.74 = 6.19 million
                      ================

                      Are you still smirking? 🙂 🙂

                      Trumpbots be as eagerly brainwashed as Berniebots

                    2. Your such a propaganda artist —
                      “***OBAMA CREATED 30% MORE JOBS !”
                      OBAMA was inaugurated in 2009 you dipsh*t – yet you pick the years AFTER Republicans had full congress control and AFTER Obama CAUSED the Great Recession to support a “statistical” claim that by DESTROYING it and Republicans SAVING it as an Obama effect.

                    3. Your EXACT words, “Trump started from the longest recovery ever, for an incoming President … from Obama”

                      “recovery …. from Obama” – LIE ABOUT MY WORDS. SHAME ON YOU
                      !!! YOU ARE THE LIAR !!!

                    4. Oh look a NYTIMES blogger knows when the Recession began
                      https://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/12/01/december-2007-the-date-the-recession-officially-began/

                      YET; GDP didn’t tank until AFTER Obama got inaugurated – Google any GDP chart ALL show it was late 2009 beginning 2010.

                      LIES and PROPAGANDA, LIES and PROPAGANDA… That’s all you know.

                    5. BWAAA HAAAA …. now an EVEN BIGGER fool!!!

                      OMG! N. Korea is launching hobby rockets – Trump is a Failure… Give me a break…

                      NO, Gomer. I proved YOU a liar, for this:

                      Stopped the N. Korean inter-ballistic nuclear weaponry

                      HOBBY ROCKETS??? *OMFG*

                      Your such a propaganda artist —
                      “***OBAMA CREATED 30% MORE JOBS !”
                      OBAMA was inaugurated in 2009 you dipsh*t

                      That’s what I said, Gomer!

                      THE RECOVERY WAS JUNE 2009, Obama’s fifth month in office.

                      (pees pants laughing)

                      – yet you pick the years AFTER Republicans had full congress control

                      ****YOU SAID THE RECOVERY BEGAN AFTER GOP CONTROLLED BOTH HOUSES

                      heck; it didn’t even START getting better until the Republicans had full majority of both houses of Congress.

                      PROVEN LIAR!

                      REPUBLICANS HAD FULL CONTROL UNDER TRUMP’S FIRST TWO YEARS … PLUS THE WHITE HOUSE!
                      2.9% + 2.3% = 5.2%

                      OBAMA GAVE HIM: 3.O5% + 2.17% = 5.2% WITH NO TAX CUT … LOWER DEFICITS. …. AND MORE JOBS

                      ****NOW YOU GO FULL PSYCHO!

                      and AFTER Obama CAUSED the Great Recession to support a “statistical” claim that by DESTROYING it and Republicans SAVING it as an Obama effect.

                      *snort*
                      ***THE RECESSION BEGAN IN DEC, 2007. AND HERE’S THE PROOF, CRAZED TRUMPTARD.
                      OFFICIAL DATES FOR OUR BUSINESS CYCLES SINCE THE 1850s. RECESSIONS BEGIN WHEN THE ECONOMY PEAKS
                      https://www.nber.org/cycles.html

                      IN “PEEK” COLUMN” December 2007 *smirk*
                      ALSO SEE THE “TROUGH” COLUMN, WHEN IT ENDED:
                      June 2009

                      PROOF OF WHAT I SAID!

                      (snort) THE RECESSION BEGAN DECEMBER 2007, RAN AN ENTIRE YEAR UNDER BUSH. … THE RECOVERY WAS JUNE 2009, Obama’s fifth month in office. *Dems held both Houses of Congress!
                      2015-2017 *NOW* BOTH REPUBLICAN. SIX YEARS INTO THE RECOVERY!

                      CRAZED PSYCHO

                      YET; GDP didn’t tank until AFTER Obama got inaugurated – Google any GDP chart ALL show it was late 2009 beginning 2010.

                      ***GOMER LINKS TO A *BLOGGER*
                      ********AND HIS OWN LINK PROVES HIM A PSYCHO. THE TITLE IS AT THE END OF THE LINK!

                      december-2007-the-date-the-recession-officially-began/

                      ***AND IT WAS PUBLISHED IN 2008 … BEFORE OBAMA TOOK OFFICE!

                      2008/12/01

                      ******<AND GOMER NEVER READ HIS OWN LINK!

                      A committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research has declared that the United States is in recession, and has been in it since December 2007

                      I JUST LINKED YOU TO THE OFFICIAL RECESSION DATES … AT THE SAME SOURCE, NBER

                      Well, you’ve made a TOTAL public ass of yourself!

                      Anything else I can HUMILIATE you on. sonny boy? 🙂

                      Typical brainwashed Trumptard.

                    6. Lying Gomer INSISTS the words in bold are the same!

                      Your EXACT words, “Trump started from the longest recovery ever, for an incoming President … from Obama”

                      “recovery …. from Obama”

                      LIE ABOUT MY WORDS. SHAME ON YOU

                      !!! YOU ARE >HE LIAR !!

                      *smirk*
                      He deleted the “longest recovery ever, for an incoming President” … so he could CHANGE THE TOPIC, a chickenshit failure.

                      His PROVEN lies are boldface

                      “recovery …. from Obama” — LMAO!!! That *IS* the new democratic HOAX!!! Who was presiding during the worst of the Great Recession again???? Heck; it didn’t even START getting better until the Republicans had full majority of both houses of Congress.

                      ***EVERY WORD A PROVEN LIE
                      ***Has NOTHING to do with Obama gifting Trump “the longest recovery ever, for an incoming President
                      and (Trump) PISSED IT ALL AWAY”

                      This is every bit as pathetic as Trump. *sneer*

                      (Posted in self defense of MULTIPLE CRAZED ASSAULTS)

              2. Squirrelly, commit suicide right away. You are worthless and shouldn’t live. No one will ever love you.

                And it’s the most libertarian thing you will ever do.

            2. Whiny pussy *sneer*

  5. STOP with the media hysteria Sullum.

    The answer is for everyone who can go back to work and end this charade where everyone stuck in residential recycled air will solve this.

    The KungFlu is no more deadly to Americans than the seasonal Flu/Cold.

      1. Relevance?

    1. It’s even worse than that.

      First they say “This is all Trump’s fault! He didn’t test quick enough. The FDA is not approving things quick enough. Trump downplayed the virus”

      And now they are saying, “It’s not all that bad.”

      1. I’ve been carefully ignoring or avoiding everything Trump says and everything anyone says about stuff Trump says. It’s much better that way.
        So, I’ll just say I’m sure the federal bureucracy fucked up in lots of ways. And I’m glad Trump hans’t been more activist and tried to impose a national lockdown or something. It’s disgusting that “lockdown” is something that can even be seriously discussed for free citizens.

        1. He’s a Half-Coolidge.

          1. Lukewarmidge!!

      2. now they are not even testing unless you need to go to the hospital so i guess all that “not testing enough” was typical political BS

        1. It was bullshit from day one. You don’t need to test people to prescribe Robitussin, chicken soup, and bed rest for a week or so.

          The treatment for 99% of people is exactly the same for COVID-19 as it has always been for anyone with a bad cold or the flu.

          1. True, until the lungs start to fill up. Then it’s ventilator or die.

            1. Which is true of the flu, chicken little

            2. Life is tough. Death is ultimately unavoidable. I don’t what else to say.

              1. Why aren’t you panicking?!

                1. My balls probably.

            3. Pneumonia is #1 killer of really old people.

      3. Their response will always be whatever makes Trump wrong.

  6. The good Dr.s literally said several times yesterday that the actual curve will be somewhere in between the two options, depending on several factors that aren’t known. Hack reporters asked question after question to get them to commit to one so they could say they were wrong in the future.

    I’m really starting to wonder how many times Reason has lied in the past that I didn’t know about because I hadn’t watched the live press conference the day before.

    1. Reason is no better than the msm

      1. That is because of O’Sullivan’s First Law – “All organizations that are not actually right-wing will over time become left-wing.”

        1. That’s Robert Conquests Second Law of Politics!

    2. Notice the media are trying to pin this on someone else besides them.

      The writing is on the wall that Americans are not following unconstitutional orders, this KungFlu is not going to kill every American it touches, and the US economy is holding fast IN SPITE of treasonous media types trying to nuke it.

      1. “They were wrong. Here’s why!”

        In this day and age, that is the ultimate headline any “journalist” can aspire to foist upon the world.

        “We were wrong. We’re sorry!” is not an option. That would take journalistic integrity, and it would never be a headline in any event.

        “Journalists” live to skewer people, never to report.

    3. The good Dr.s literally said several times yesterday that the actual curve will be somewhere in between the two options, depending on several factors that aren’t known.

      Exactly right. Fauci has said this over and over. I’m noticing that people who had trouble moderating their skepticism about COVID-19 as data came in early on just cannot figure out how to reconcile the cognitive dissonance created by current reality and their initial instincts.

      Can’t wait for a followup podcast with Richard Epstein to set us straight.

    4. Reason uses Twitter as their primary sources generally.

    5. “I’m really starting to wonder how many times Reason has lied in the past that I didn’t know about because I hadn’t watched the live press conference the day before.”

      Always.

      I’ve got a nose for their bullshit now. Finding a complete source only confirms the lie for me.

      Listen for tortured language. It’s tortured to make it confess to a lie.
      Listen for the dog that *didn’t* bark, the fact that’s *obviously* the crux of the matter, must be known, but is left out.
      But for the true moron, listen for the absurd objection.

      Without further evidence, one can dismiss the “false choice” characterization as bs. With metaphysical certitude, you *know* that there’s absolutely no way they literally stated that the two alternatives they gave were the only *possible* alternatives.
      If they gave 3 scenarios, could not that have been equally called a “false choice”. 4? 5? N? N+1? The joy of this characterization is that it will *always* apply. You can always bitch that there are more alternatives they didn’t show. False Choice!
      They gave two response scenarios to bound expectations for deaths, not delineate all possible responses.
      The whole premise of the article *entirely misses the point* of giving the scenarios.

  7. Seems that all the old people – that would be me and my wife – and those who’s health is known to be at risk could just stay home. Costco and others have special shopping hours for those groups, so staying out of the way is fairly easy.
    Let the young and healthy go back to work or to the beach or school and get COVID-19. They will have a bad two weeks or so if they are not among those with little or no symptoms and the herd will develop immunity. After 60% or so have gotten sick and recovered we can crawl out from under our rocks.

    1. There are a million ways to get old people supplies so they can stay locked down if they wish.

      Rich celebrities can donate money for food delivery. Off hour shopping as you mentioned. Amazon food delivery. Charities deliver food. Local residents deliver food to their elderly neighbors.

      Americans need to go back to work.

      1. The Thomas Masse video (also on Reason) brings up another one where the FDA went in with police and shut-down a charity that was door-step delivering supplying to those infected and in self-isolation.

        Its amazing how the FDA is so determined in keeping the spread going.

      2. Rich celebrities largely take care of themselves. Wing a progressive is easy because you’re being ‘generous’ with OTHER people’s money.

    2. Old Rip Van Dinkle up here gets it. ^^^^^^^^
      +100%

    3. According to Gov. Cuomo, your willingness to accept a certain amount of risk is going to kill his mother.

    4. “…Let the young and healthy go back to work or to the beach or school and get COVID-19. They will have a bad two weeks or so if they are not among those with little or no symptoms and the herd will develop immunity. After 60% or so have gotten sick and recovered we can crawl out from under our rocks.”

      And perhaps have an economy which isn’t in such ruin that it might kill more than the disease.

    5. That’s actually an alternative proposed at promarket.org – Let Younger People Work

      Course the author there (unlike Reason or the commentariat here) is honest enough to calc the cost of that. By his calculation the cost is 110,000 under-50’s dead up to the point where 50% of them have been infected. I think he’s low by about 50% because 150 million young people getting sick still quickly and easily breaks our medical system. For a cost of $1 trillion to the economy.

      Not sure what’s really in it for that generation. They get sacrificed. They pay the debt burden forever. All so that the older folks can hang on and bleed them dry even further for an extra 2, 3, 5 years.

      1. From a purely Darwinian perspective, ‘the herd’ will be a lot stronger long-term if everyone is equally exposed to the threat. The virus will kill off the weaker, the unhealthy, and the burdensome. And the surviving herd will be stronger, younger, healthier and immune.

        1. And JFree is creaming his jeans with every new death headline he finds!
          This is JFree who celebrates the rousing Patrick Henry quote: “Give me Liberty, unless it might mean I can catch a flu bug”
          Go hide in your bomb shelter, you dishonest piece of cowardly shit.

  8. What’s missing? Anything in between, which is the area that really matters for policy makers.

    “BWAHAHAHAHAAA!!”

  9. I say people can still go to work if they just wipe everything down with disinfectant, not touch each other, and wash their hands a lot. Shutting the whole thing down is unnecessary.

    1. *** meekly raises hand ***

      Are you an expert?

      1. who’s an expert?

    2. Medically, it’s not necessary.

      Politically, it’s absolutely necessary, because anybody who doesn’t do that will get blamed for all the dead bodies. The fact that such blame would be misplaced won’t matter.

      1. We made a mistake not doing something about our propagandist media in this country a long time ago.

        1. Yeah, that fucking free press must be suppressed
          Along with your suppression of free speech
          SIEG HEIL!

          1. They’re not a fee press. They’re coordinated propagandists. Are you capable of understanding that?

    3. I think there is a role for government when it comes to public health, but that role should be limited. So far all the data points to a virus that is contagious but not very deadly. Government’s role in this should be on the lowest end of the scale of action to be taken. The best response would be to let private companies and labs perform the testing without interference. Pay for the test if you MUST do something. And ultimately let individuals be in charge of their own response. If you want to go to work and take the risk of the virus then that is your informed choice.

      1. “…Government’s role in this should be on the lowest end of the scale of action to be taken. The best response would be to let private companies and labs perform the testing without interference…”

        And goddam riot in the streets when the government takes over the entire economy.

      2. If you want to go to work and take the risk of the virus then that is your informed choice.

        virologist….the flaw in your premise is asymptomatic transmission. That is what makes it different, IMO. And yes, we are all autonomous actors, I agree.

      3. I think there is a role for government when it comes to public health, but that role should be limited. So far all the data points to a virus that is contagious but not very deadly.

        Sucker!

        COVID-19 DEATH RATE 25X WORSE THAN SWINE FLU

        Less than two years ago, the seasonal flu was especially deadly. It killed an estimated 61,000 Americans, but it didn’t overwhelm health care workers and hospitals, as COVID-19 did in Italy and threatens to in the U.S. Those people (with seasonal flu) were spread out from November to April or May. Our healthcare system is designed to handle that kind of load. Not so with COVID-19.”

        “The challenge with COVID-19 is we are all eligible to get sick and spread the disease all at the same time.”

        ELIGIBLE, because none are immune, unlike seasonal flu. DUH

        Last week, Trump said this at a news conference in the Oval Office: “If you go back and look at the swine flu and what happened with the swine flu, you’ll see how many people died and how actually nothing was done for such a long period of time, as people were dying all over the place.

        STILL BLAMING OBAMA – LIKE OBAMA KEPT BLAMING BUSH And this is 25 times worse (keep reading)

        Data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention track the increase of H1N1 swine flu in 2009 from the day of the first death – April 28th, 2009 — compared with the rise of COVID-19 since the first U.S. coronavirus death was reported in Washington on Feb. 29.

        … the CDC had confirmed 4,226 COVID-19 cases in 16 days since the first death. At the same stage in 2009, the CDC had tallied 3,352 H1N1 cases.

        But, contrary to Trump’s claims, the death rate for COVID-19 has far outpaced H1N1 over the same span.

        The CDC had confirmed 75 COVID-19 deaths, 16 days after its first death.. By contrast, 16 days after the first swine flu death, there were only three H1N1 deaths reported to the CDC.

        75/3 = COVID-19 is 25 times more deadly than swine flu

        The CDC estimates about 12,000 Americans ended up dying from swine flu between April 2009 and April 2010.

        12,000 x 25 = 300,000
        Graphic comparison charts at source

        **”… (swine flu) didn’t go away. Many people don’t realize it’s now part of the seasonal flu and covered by the annual flu vaccine. … COVID-19 is completely new, is hitting on top of the seasonal flu, has no vaccine and clearly warrants the stronger response because nobody is immune.

        1. Wow, that is some idiotic cherry picking. Now go back and look at all the data.

          And you really shouldn’t post here. You’re not taken seriously. In part because of things like this. It also appears you’re going into another manic period and ranting again.

          Either way, you have no credibility.

            1. So you link to a crappy article that as an embarrassment? Your concept of ‘proof’ is lacking. You are clearly more senile than Biden.

              I’m trying to be nice about this, since you clearly don’t understand math, or anything related to decision sciences.

              1. YOU SICK FUCK. (Re: The CARES Act)

                WRONG AGAIN.

                sickfuck of the woodchippets
                Pelosi’s bill. Do you to actually follow these things?

                BETTER THAN YOU DO. (lol)

                It was passed by the Republican Senate, then passed off to the House.

                Educate yourself, Gomer

                SENATE PASSES MASSIVE $2 TRILLION CORONAVIRUS SPENDING BILL

                WASHINGTON — The Senate overwhelmingly passed a massive $2 trillion stimulus package late Wednesday …

                … The House is expected to vote on the stimulus bill on Friday,

                House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, D-Md., said, which will allow Democrats enough time to review the legislation whose final language was not released until late Wednesday.

                Your hatred-spewing, primitive, tribal bigotry has exploded on you AGAIN.The drooling imbecile had said THIS!

                That bill is bullshit. The democrats should have all been taken to GitMo as traitors for ever voting for it.

                A REPUBLICAN BILL!!!!! O<FG
                MCCONNELL’S GOP COMMITTED TREASON! *sneer*

                *****NOW, GOES TOTALLY OFF THE RAILS!!

                I’m trying to be nice about this, since you clearly don’t understand math, or anything related to decision sciences.

                THAT’S BEING NICE!
                HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH MATH!!!!

                ONE … SICK … FUCK …
                ON STEROIDS.

                (uncontrollable vomiting)

    4. “Shutting the whole thing down is unnecessary.” — but probably the very goal as I’m still baffled WHY the FDA is making home-testing illegal… Like WTF????? Are they purposely trying to spread COVID-19 or what….

      With over-the-counter and at-home testing (which have already been made but GOV held-up) ALL working units could pre-test the employee crowds and everything could start moving again.

      NOPE though; I guess the GOV will stop that from happening.

  10. That first graphic was used in yesterday’s Task Force Briefing. The lack of proportion and axis-scaling in this schematic caused confusion.

  11. On their best days, most people can contemplate just two options or alternative scenarios. Universal democracy is a government of the people. Therefore we should expect our government to only present two cases. This is not a false choice; this is the only way they can present something voters can understand.

    (And more revealing of our bizarro society: most people are pre-wired to automatically embrace one option and reject the other, based on political source and favorite media bias. There is no “thinking”.)

    1. That’s not true at all. People, and businesses, are perfectly capable of understanding a nuanced plan of action, like wearing masks + washing everything + reasonable distancing + protecting the vulnerable. You have too little faith in people. Will everyone do it? No, but most would.

      1. And if they wouldn’t then we’re fucked anyway. There has to be some level of social trust or shit just won’t work.

    2. “…This is not a false choice; this is the only way they can present something voters can understand…”

      Are you trying to tell us something about your mental capabilities?

      1. No one ever lost money underestimating the intelligence of the American people.

        1. “No one ever lost money underestimating the intelligence of the American people.”

          Yes, they have, but you seem to be trying to prove otherwise.

  12. >>Governments right now are not deciding whether to do nothing or do something.

    “what can we take we won’t have to give back?”

  13. “It seems that many people who are pessimistic about the COVID-19 death toll want to have it both ways. When it comes to justifying immediate, sweeping, and sustained control measures, they emphasize how quickly the virus spreads. But high estimates of the virus’s reproduction number (the number of people the average carrier can be expected to infect) imply a bigger gap between confirmed cases and total infections, which in turn implies a lower CFR.”

    Yes, I have noticed this. There is a lot of “OMG this is super contagious, everyone who looks at someone who has it will get it, we might have a lot of asymptomatic carriers out there spreading this disease and never even know they had it so NO ONE CAN LEAVE THEIR HOUSE!!” followed by “this is super deadly and I think deaths are under reported and the real fatality rate is probably at least 10%!!” Well, which is it? Either it’s a disease that is super contagious and tons of us have/had it and don’t really know, and therefore it is much less deadly than feared, or it has a >1% fatality rate. It can’t be both, because if it was, we would have bodies littering the streets. However it CAN be neither, which is where the smart money is. I don’t think it’s something that everyone, or even most people, have contracted, outside of areas like NYC. But it’s almost certainly true that the actual number of cases is significantly higher than those diagnosed, perhaps by an order of magnitude, thus making fatality rates vastly overstated.

    1. >>> asymptomatic carriers out there spreading this disease and never even know they had it

      we’re all angels of death. stay 27 feet away from everybody.

      1. Is the 27 feet significant? I note that it is 3^3. Or maybe I suffer from OCD?

      2. I’ll be carrying a 6′ spear with me from here out.
        If anybody gets within range, they’re too close and I feared for my life!

      3. Make it 28. Just to be safe.

    2. If you can find it you can see that the infection rate is about 10%.

      That’s the percentage of people tested that turn out to actually HAVE C19.

      I dug the number out two times after I first heard it cited in a briefing. That one was when we’d tested about a quarter million. The second was a week later when we were just past half a million. And the third was this past weekend when the number of tested wasn’t mentioned–instead the 10% infection rate was just mentioned in passing as an established fact.

      But it’s a hard number to find. Because it undermines the whole house of infected cards.

      Of that 10% about 80% are asymptomatic or only having mild symptoms. And 15% get a symptoms like a bad cold. Only around 5% get anything worse.

      So it’s 5% of 10% of all tested people.

      1. It is 10% of people with symptoms string enough to test.

      2. Let’s do some quick math, shall we?

        330,000,000 * 10% = 33,000,000 (total infected rate? could be higher)
        33,000,000 * 80% = 26,400,000 (Afflicted, mild symptoms)
        33,000,000 * 15% = 4,950,000 (Afflicted, more severe)
        33,000,000 * 5% = 1,650,000 (Afflicted, require hospitalization, severe)
        33,000,000 * 0.5% = 165,000 dead

        You need to really reflect on what we are talking about here. This is far worse than any influenza. The hospitalization cost here should not be underestimated. The cost to American society will be tremendous.

        It is time to erect a Great Wall around China. Lying fucks.

        1. Well, walls do work. We need to finish the one on the Mexico border.

  14. That Joker meme has never been more appropriate:

    “Tell people that 600,000 will die this year of heart disease and obesity, and no one bats an eye. Tell them between 100K-240K will die of BatAIDS, and everyone loses their minds.”

    1. Then tell them that 65-75% of those 100k-240k are coming from the ranks of those who were going to die anyway of heart disease, obesity, etc. and they’ll look at you like a deer in the headlights.

      1. Yep. I’ve yet to hear the phrase co-mortality. It’s going to be a bad year for Covid-19, but a damned good year for everything else.

  15. “The only thing we have to fear is fear itself.” Said in 1933 by F.D.R., one of the heroes of the Democratic Party and most historians, and in every “famous quotations” book ever written.
    Imagine the howls if Trump made that kind of happy talk today?
    We must remember, however, that five years after F.D.R. said that, the unemployment rate was 19% yet most historians, and the public, believe F.D.R. was a demi-god.

    1. FDR was basically a fascist; that’s why historians love him.

      1. Not all historians. I buck my peers to the their annoyance.

  16. In addition to presenting a false choice, the Trump administration’s framing relies on assumptions that may prove to be mistaken.

    Trump isn’t presenting a “false choice”, he’s simply giving a baseline.
    Furthermore, so far, it’s the states that have imposed most of the draconian and involuntary measures, so I’m not sure what you’re complaining about when it comes to Trump, in particular since Reason has effectively attacked Trump in the past for not being draconian enough.

    1. Because if they can’t find a legitimate reason to criticize Trump, they’re duty-bound to shift the goalposts to create a fake reason to criticize Trump.

      Quite possibly the smartest thing that the Trump administration has done in this crisis is ignore all advice from people like Jacob Sullum. If he’d listen to that crowd, we’d have a million plus dead in the streets while Sullum sniffed that at least we stayed true to libertarian and free market principles while allowing the human “right” to migrate wherever you want with no regard for consequences.

      A “pure” libertarian is no different than a hard-left communist. They only care about winning the argument and maintaining ideological purity, they could care less about how many bodies their preferred policies create in a crisis.

      1. “…They only care about winning the argument and maintaining ideological purity, they could care less about how many bodies their preferred policies create in a crisis.”

        You.
        Are.
        Full.
        Of .
        Shit.

      2. Libertarians have nothing in common with unreason staff because the staff are not Libertarians and in fact hate much of what Libertarians stand for and like.

    2. This is the problem with the politically-based coverage of ….. .well, everything.

      It is pretty clear that more local action is what is needed. Even in a state the size of Florida, there were counties that needed to lock down weeks ago (as we did here in SoFla) and there are counties that still don’t have significant issues. DeSantis just ordered the entire state on lockdown today – which was the right move. He specifically talked about local governments taking appropriate actions based on the local situation.

      Now, the USA is a nation of 330 million people spread out over 50 states covering a large chunk of a continent. Absent closing the border 75 days ago (before any cases got here), there isn’t much that could be done at a national level. Even state wide level was too large…. look at Washington, California, New York and Florida. They took different actions and had different levels of compliance from their citizens… and despite being late to the party, New York City and mayor “I will not close the schools, ever!!” have nearly caught up with Italy in terms of cases over 2 short weeks.

      Meanwhile, Florida started closing everything down way back when we had less than 50 cases. I think Broward had 4 cases when they started cancelling school events. Absent a huge bump from New Yorkers travelling south, we’d likely still be under 1,000 cases.

      The rest of the nation has largely forestalled the spread of the virus – meaning that the nation as a whole is going to be experiencing rolling epidemics for quite some time to come.

      So a federalized reaction is the only way to handle it. There’s no way to send out One Size Fits All orders and have that succeed.

      Heck, look at the EU. They shut down borders all over the place in there, and they’ve had massively divergent results from state to state – but if you look at their case load, as a group they are well north of where the US is, despite having recorded first cases at about the same time (some 65-70 days ago) and representing a similar population size.

      So, because of the political basis for all news coverage of all types in the US, we have no idea how we are doing. I have not even seen anyone bother adding up the cases for the EU to compare directly with the US. (interesting, since NY can be our Italy, and maybe Cali is our Germany? Or maybe our France?) In any event, nobody is actually analyzing the events of the day, or running down the details of the story. They are entirely engrossed in finding the political angle that benefits their team.

      1. Lockdowns arent necessary.

      2. “He specifically talked about local governments taking appropriate actions based on the local situation. ” — Well said; a Constitutional principle that seems to have been forgot by many citizens with the ever-growing federal show-boating and steps to power-grab for National Socialization (implementing the Nazi System).

  17. The Trump Administration Presents a False Choice Between Current COVID-19 Control Measures and ‘No Intervention’

    Screeched the cosmotarians who had been screaming for open borders for the entirety of Trump’s presidency and who opposed his travel bans to fight coronavirus.

  18. no he didn’t…maybe the moron writer just didn’t get it…he is a Reason writer afterall, not the sharpest knives in the drawer they are

  19. Sullum – You always do the same shit with numbers. Pick the most favorable number to your case (in this case 0.1% CFR) – even when it is proven to be either a lie or utter bullshit – and then repeat it and repeat it and repeat it as if that makes it true. And then wave your hands around creating policy options and scenarios based on that bullshit. You did the same thing with that opioid ‘addiction’ number from the corporate marketing literature.

    You are, without question, the most deliberately dishonest author on this site. May God have mercy on your soul.

    1. You are, without question, the most deliberately dishonest author on this site.

      I still think it’s Boehm or Suderman, but I leave open the possibility that they’re both merely too dumb to understand the issues they write about.

      1. The current run rate – Coronavirus is now the 3rd leading cause of death in the US behind cancer and heart disease. It took one month.

        There are so many alternatives to deal with it. All of which suck to one degree or the other. But it boggles my mind that people are still insisting on being taken seriously when they basically keep repeating comfortable lies that this is just the flu. Short of giving out a ton of Darwin awards, I’m not sure what’s going to change that.

        1. “The current run rate – Coronavirus is now the 3rd leading cause of death in the US behind cancer and heart disease. It took one month.”

          By a factor of greater than two, you dishonest piece of cowardly shit.

          1. Give it time. Predictions are for an increase of substantial size.

            1. When does the sky fall, chicken little?

            2. Which predictions give you the biggest euphoria, the 2 million dead one?

              1. Given his whiny adolescence, I’m guessing he’s hoping for mommy/government control of his life until, 15-going-on-50, it dawns on him, he’s never going to grow up.
                That ‘responsibility’ shit; who needs it?

        2. It’s cute that you are using peak data and not comparing the data over large time periods. Idiots do as idiots do. When covid consistently has 1k deaths a day for a year, let us know.

          1. Further cute that the scumbag JFree had to search all over the web to find the scariest (and least honest) headline to post.
            Why, it’s almost like turd, finding that Obo managed to increase the production of crawfish by 200% and Trump hasn’t matched THAT!!!!

        3. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm
          24,000 – 62,000 flu deaths this season
          4,482 Coronavirus deaths this season.

          1. Stop comparing averages to averages. They prefer max(coroniavirus) compared to average(other deaths) because average(coronavirus) is only 400 a week so far.

          2. “24,000 – 62,000 flu deaths this season
            4,482 Coronavirus deaths this season.”

            Let’s give ’em the numbers; let’s say it’s 100K deaths.
            Now, does that justify ruination of the economy and government control of your life?
            JFree is a lefty; it’s no wonder he’s all in with government control of everything. Hihn and I think BigT claim to be libertarian, but they seem to be informed by that Patrick Henry quote: “Give me Liberty (unless I might get a flue bug)!!!”

        4. Not true. January 2020 there have been 4500 deaths.

          Influenza 2017-18 infected 45 million Americans and killed 79,000.

          1. Since January…. so 4500 deaths in 3 months.

            1. MOAR BULLSHIT!!!
              The first coronavirus death was FEBRUARY 29TH. SO IT’S ONE MONTH, NOT THREE!
              https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/1st-coronavirus-death-u-s-officials-say-n1145931

              IT’S 5000 X 12 MONTHS = 60,000 DEATHS
              AND THE DEATH RATE IS ACCELERATING RAPIDLY,

              First 1,000 deaths — 26 days (Mar 1 – March 26)
              Total Deaths DOUBLED in TWO days (mar 27-28, 2000+)
              Total deaths TRIPLED in in FOUR days (Mar 29-30, 3000+)
              Total deaths 500% in SEVEN days (Mar 30 – Apr 1, 5000+)

              Influenza 2017-18 infected 45 million Americans and killed 79,000.

              ***LIAR
              cont’d

              1. Part 2 of bullshit exposed

                https://time.com/5610878/2018-2019-flu-season/
                the CDC estimates that up to 42.9 million people got sick during the 2018-2019 flu season, 647,000 people were hospitalized and 61,200 died.

                WE’RE ALREADY ON PACE FOR 60,000 AFTER ONE MONTH … AND THE PACE KEEPS ACCELERATING.

                1. AVERAGE ANNUAL FLU DEATHS

                  … This season CDC estimates that, as of mid-March, between 29,000 and 59,000 have died due to influenza illnesses.

                  https://www.health.com/condition/cold-flu-sinus/how-many-people-die-of-the-flu-every-year

            2. 3,600 dead in the last 6 days, and the rate is increasing at a steady pace. The cases and deaths are both increasing at about 15% per day. At that rate the number of deaths doubles every 5-6 days. 1,000 yesterday, in 20 days it could be 16,000 per day. In 40 days it might be 250,000 in a day.

              Those are numbers based on our actual data and the observed exponential growth.

              But it’s just the flu.

      2. You are, without question, the most deliberately dishonest author on this site.

        I still think it’s Boehm or Suderman

        Shikha has a sad.

    2. Stuff your PANIC flag up your ass, stick first.

  20. Well, if it makes you guys feel better, the Federal Liberals up here lost the plot early in the game. When the Chink virus was spreading around doing its thang, Justin sent masks to China – even though experts were cautioning against. Then, when people suggested he shut down airspace, he and the Heath Minister said that would be racist. Then, he changed his tune when his wife got it and still hadn’t shut down an illegal immigration path known as Roxham in Quebec even as he announced a border closing deal with the USA.

    At every turn, they took an ‘internationalist’ stance putting Canadian interest and safety at risk.

    Now Tam the Health Minister is telling Canadians to wash their hands and social distance – even though she said it wasn’t a problem the virus early on.

    Now Justin is trying to look all dignified trying to lead a county but I don’t know of anyone who takes this guy seriously.

    A party of clowns made by clowns and for clowns.

    1. Chink virus?

      1. Yeah that didn’t narrow it down much.

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  22. Well, you obviously have not been watching CNN. Because they have made it clear that if Trump had only listened to the science people, this whole thing would have been averted. But he listened to political advisors instead, so now we have a quarter of a million people scheduled for death.

    CNN’s coverage of Today’s press conference followed a formula… the instant they cut away, they went to a political analyst who told us that it was terrible. First, the President is trying to make himself look good – which is always a terrible thing for a President to do, but particularly horrible at this time. Our analyst made it clear that it is irresponsible to try to make political points during this serious crisis. And it is also clear that Trump has completely botched the entire thing and because of that people are going to die. So instead of talking about (insert topic here), he should be explaining to the American people in detail exactly how he screwed everything up and why he wants so many Americans to die.

    Then they went to their White House reporter with Wolf Blitzer. They discussed how terrible it is that nobody is answering the serious questions that the American People have. And because of that, people are going to die… probably at least 250,000. If only Trump would take the questions of The American People seriously, things would be much better.

    They went on for even longer than the overly-long briefing, explaining exactly why everything they had to say is terrible and a lie and Trump killed people. They even said that Trump talking about a big drug interdiction is going to kill people – because he didn’t properly schedule a separate news conference for that topic.

    So, if this article really represents how you are feeling, I suggest you go turn on CNN. Because they are totally right, and all of their insider background information from “senior political advisors to the President” is that Trump is doing everything wrong and everyone is going to die. (seriously, they actually tried that gambit… Fauci telling us that he’s basically calling the shots and Trump has done everything Fauci has recommended notwithstanding)

    1. I’ve noticed that nobody in a position to have the question heard is asking the serious question that this American person has:

      Are the reported deaths from COVID-19 in this country only those whose actual cause of death is COVID-19, or do they follow the example of other countries such as Italy and report anyone who dies _from any cause_ while infected with the virus as being a COVID-19 death.

      1. A headline linked earlier today was claiming “COVID-19 *Related* Deaths”. Pretty sure that answers your question.
        I remember looking up “smoking related” deaths and found it was largely propaganda; If you got run over by a truck while smoking, well…

      2. The COVID-19 deaths are obviously underreported, perhaps severely, but impossible to count. There are presumed to be many who die from the virus, but were never tested and diagnosed,

        1. “The COVID-19 deaths are obviously underreported,”

          Your TDS ate your cite, shitstain.

            1. Yeah, fuck off and die, you pathetic excuse for humanity.

              1. BECAUSE I PROVED HIM WRONG!

            2. BTW, is your mommy still around to tuck you into bed and keep the boogey man away?
              If you have a wife, is she solicitous of such a cowardly piece of shit that you are willing to let the government run your life in the hopes you don’t get a flu bug?
              If you have children, are they honest enough to laugh in your face regarding your cowardice?
              If not, I presume you’ve infected them with your pathetic lack of principles.
              Fuck off and die, slaver; you owe it to the world.


              1. REUTERS: 81% said the country should continue social distancing initiatives, including “shelter at home” orders, “despite the impact to the economy.” (89% of Democrats and 70% of Republicans.)

                Only 19% said they would like to end social distancing as soon as possible “to get the economy going again,” including 11% of Democrats and 30% of Republicans.

                The March 26-27 opinion poll, released Friday, also showed that the public is much more likely to heed the advice of doctors and local government officials than President Donald Trump.

                66% said they would follow the instructions of medical doctors
                64% said they would follow the advice of the CDC,
                51% said they would follow the advice from their state’s governor
                46% would follow healthcare directions from local police.
                Only 31% are “very likely” to follow President Trump’s recommendations and advice

      3. Are the reported deaths from COVID-19 in this country only those whose actual cause of death is COVID-19, or do they follow the example of other countries such as Italy and report anyone who dies _from any cause_ while infected with the virus as being a COVID-19 death.
        ——————
        The CDC only has two outcomes: recovered and dead. If you die from something other than COVID, you still didn’t recover, so you go in the dead pile, even if you were hit by a bus.

        1. Umm, the other disease is what makes them a high risk for infection, with deaths shortly thereafter. Obviously, the other disease would not have killed them. You’ll need a different excuse to deny reality,

          1. Yes, covid was the reason for the bus.

    2. Cyto….The press in this country has been horrific. There is just no other way to say it. Absolutely disgraceful and shameful.

      At a time in out national history when we truly need the dissemination of accurate, unbiased information, all we get is worthless pablum. When this passes, the American press should take time to self-reflect on their actions. The press have served America poorly.

      1. How so?

  23. “Researchers in the U.S. found a temporary flight ban following 9/11 didn’t stop the spread of the flu, but delayed it by a couple of weeks and led to a prolonged flu season.”

    “In 2009, during the outbreak of H1N1 swine flu, some countries imposed travel restrictions on flights coming from and going to Mexico. A study two years later found it “only led to an average delay in the arrival of the infection in other countries (i.e. the first imported case) of less than three days.” “No containment was achieved by such restrictions and the virus was able to reach pandemic proportions in a short time,” the authors wrote.”

    1. No link = bullshit

  24. I love charts without scales! What kind of fucking moron cooks this shit up? A five-year-old could make that chart that WH provided.

  25. I hope that whenever this thing finally ends, there is research done on how recovery takes hold in areas that went full bore on raising the minimum wage.

    1. It won’t, but it’s pretty obvious that the companies forced to pay over-market M/W were already stressed before being put out of business by government edict. They’re toast and will reopen with increased automation or not at all.
      ‘Fool me once…’

      1. what do you think is the probability that some (or any) of these jurisdictions that had already legislated increases in future years dial them back?

        i won’t say zero point zero…but i reckon it’ll be close.

        1. Can’t help seeing your handle as november juliet 2 alpha zulu; tail number..
          I don’t see any of them doing shit in that regard. I’m far more certain, that given a major dose of government ‘help’, they’ll double-down.
          There’s a real danger that the damage might be permanent.

          1. Aye i moved here in my mids 20s after being born and raised in NJ. I’m not a republican, but i learned my lesson that the democrats aren’t the ‘solution’ either.

            at least out here my inept government costs be a bit less, though i will say i am proud of the fact that we spent the last few years building a rainy day fund despite countless ‘forward thinkers’ demanding we spend every last penny that came into the coffers

            1. I’m in CA, but by careful planing, wife and I have ended up under the radar of most of the CA government agencies.
              But there’s no hope at all that the spend-thrift CA governments have done other than to spend every penny and more so.
              I’ll voted against the tax increases in the next election, for all the good it’ll do, but outside of minimal exposure, we’re pretty bullet-proof.
              My continued ranting against government control has to do with the principle of accepting that control, rather than any personal financial issues.
              And my contempt for the scumbags who would so cheerfully hand over their freedoms for the chimera of ‘security’.

              1. I’m sticking with AZ until they start going full tard on guns. There are a few bills that get introduced by the minority party that go no where, but part of me believes even if the state legislatures were to flip, they’d suddenly stop with them because people in AZ loooooooooove guns.

                but if bans on this and that actually start passing here, i’m heading to Wyoming or some damn place the parasites hopefully won’t take over til after i’m gone.

  26. Sullum ignores a critical aspect of these projections. The professionals who do them accept varying degrees of personal accountability for their conclusions. That means they add a “safety margin” to minimize the loss of needless lives. “What are the odds of 5% greater deaths? 10%?” When so much IS unknown..

    A mere journalist has no such accountability, zero qualifications and zero experience.

    We do know, with ample proof, that accurate predictions are impossible.
    It took 66 days for the first 100,000 cases. Only 5 days for the next 100,000. Future unknown.

    It took 26 days for the first 1,000 deaths, The next 1,000 was only 2 days. The third thousand, again a mere 2 days. It took 2 days for the deaths to double, and 4 days to triple. We know each infected person infects 2.5 others, hence the growth keeps accelerating. Future is unknown.

    Simple math suggest that Trump’s delays, denials, lies and — the Democrat Hoax — allowed needless deaths to comprise at least 2/3 of out total deaths.

    Many other countries do not face our potential economic collapse, by paying workers 80% of their wages if laid off, and covering employers..

    Combining all we know, the best way our of this is a FULL lockdown, enforced by fines, for less than one month. 28 days covers the full 14-day incubation, even for those infected on day 14, and does justify a full lockdown. Exclude only groceries and medical treatment.

    Pay all affected workers 80% of their salary, for less than a month. Cover employer costs for rent and utilities. Reimburse all covid-19 treatment (to avoid massive rate hikes next year, to employers.)

    Repay the total debt within 20 years, from economic growth that would be otherwise destroyed, plus a small tax surcharge. Jefferson argued that ALL federal debt should be repaid in 20 years (by the generation who borrowed it.) This is a good place to start.

    I can already hear the screeching. Costly, yes. But government will spend far more without it and many more will die, needlessly.

    After 28 days. we’ll have only those infected at grocery stores and hospital waiting rooms, easily within the available testing, and the “contact tracking” so successful in other countries, (Test anyone who had recent contact with new infectees, a lot fewer tests than a partial, or no, lockdown)

    Fewest deaths, near zero permanent economic damage. and a lot less costly than Trump’s half-hearted measures will cost. 28 days is the REASON for a total lock down. Anything less is costly denial, as we continue failed policies, for many more months of needless deaths and needless trillions in spending., The future will be known.

    1. Oh, goody. The shitbag Hihn is here to pass out lies and propaganda.
      And as a (claimed) libertarian, he is firmly behind that rousing Patrick Henry quote “Give me LIBERTY – unless it means I might catch a flu bug…”
      Yep, real champion of liberty here, except where he might get sick, in which case, all the rest of us have to accept the government as our savior!
      Fuck off and die, you scummy pile of hypocritic shit.

      1. Thank GOD for Sevo!
        His foul-mouth screaming saved us from $6 trillion in bailout spending and loan guarantees. Right? 🙂

        No he’s screeching at a LIBERTARIAN proposal that would result in
        MUCH fewer deaths
        FASTEST possible end to the virus crisis.
        NO lasting damage to the economy.
        At LESS total cost,
        And NO permanent debt increase.

        Hmmm.

        1. TheLibertyTruthTeller
          April.2.2020 at 12:08 am
          “Thank GOD for Sevo!”

          Thank whoever your please you pathetic piece of cowardly shit.

    2. Please daddy, save me… Im so scared!!!! I’ll do anything

  27. What about the hospital overload? I don’t want to die from appendicitis because the hospitals are too full of Covid-19 cases to take me.

    If you really don’t care about minimizing deaths (which it sounds like most of you don’t because unemployment or poverty must be worse than death) then at least stop bitching about inaccurate mortality rates and death totals and instead consider that a certain amount of social distancing among the “young and healthy” is needed so that the “young and healthy” (in a sample under-45s made up 20% or so of the Covid-19 cases in the hospitals in the U.S. and 38% were under 55) don’t keep the hospitals too full to treat anyone else.

    See this:

    https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e2.htm

    Among 508 (12%) patients known to have been hospitalized, 9% were aged ≥85 years, 36% were aged 65–84 years, 17% were aged 55–64 years, 18% were 45–54 years, and 20% were aged 20–44 years. Less than 1% of hospitalizations were among persons aged ≤19 years (Figure 2). The percentage of persons hospitalized increased with age, from 2%–3% among persons aged start highlight≤19end highlight years, to ≥31% among adults aged ≥85 years. (Table).

    There are lots of obese younger people who think they are perfectly healthy. They won’t stay in unless forced. They are now taking up space in NYC hospital beds.

    1. THANKS!

      1. One more fucking coward whining…

        1. So brave you are.

          1. So spineless you are. Are you proud of that? Willing to trade your freedom and liberties in the hopes you might not catch a flue bug?
            Is your mommy there to comfort you in these trying times?
            Do you know how pathetic you sound on a site supposedly dedicated to personal freedom and minimal government?
            Go crawl into your ‘safe space’ you pathetic excuse for humanity.

            1. Is that supposed to frighten me?

              1. Only when you stop laughing.

              2. “Is that supposed to frighten me?”

                Of course not! You are already a pathetic coward willing to trade your freedom in the hopes your mommy might save you.
                You’re already frightened beyond any rational comment.
                Go hunker down in your ‘safe space’ you pathetic piece of shit.

    2. Lester224
      April.1.2020 at 10:05 pm
      “What about the hospital overload? I don’t want to die from appendicitis because the hospitals are too full of Covid-19 cases to take me.”

      Aw, go whine to your mommy or grow up.
      You are more than welcome to hide under whatever ‘shelter’ you can find until mommy says it’s OK to come out; I don’t care.

    3. Stress from not being able to work, collect a pay check, pay rent, etc… not to mention fear of coronavirus from rampant fearmongering, will cause consequences. Including health consequences measured in bodies. Potentially more bodies than will ever be counted for coronavirus. (https://consistentprinciples.wordpress.com/2020/03/23/the-powerful-reason-covid-19-lockdowns-may-cause-more-deaths-than-they-prevent/ with links to medical literature).

      Also, since it’ll be over a year till there’s a vaccine, there’s really no escaping a huge number of infections. Social distancing won’t reduce total infections, it’ll only make us suffer for longer. Cue more stress. Not that anyone’s willing to talk about the real costs of the lockdowns.

      People at risk, including older people, should self-isolate. But for the rest of us, infection is probably near inevitable anyway. Let people set their own risk tolerances. Life isn’t free of risk, and we live with a lot of other risks every day. Coronavirus is just scary because it’s new. The flu killed 61k people in the 2017-2018 season (and hospitalized another 810k), and the news media didn’t even blink. (CDC statistics, can’t post a second link). Anyone naively thinking that taking drastic action to ‘flatten the curve’ is without significant and severe consequences of its own hasn’t bothered to do a real risk analysis of both worlds.

      1. Social distancing won’t reduce total infections,

        Umm, it’s a COMMUNICABLE DISEASE.
        Infections come from people infecting other people.
        If there is 80-90% fewer social interactions, there will be ….
        80-90% fewer infections! AND DEATHS!!!.

        1. Fuck off, coward. We got your number.

        2. And we need to interact with other people. It slows the spread, not eliminates it. And the spread doesn’t stop until herd immunity is achieved. (Estimates i’ve seen are ~60-70% of the population). The spread stop point isn’t measured in time, it’s measured in number of (recovered) infections. The longer you make it take to reach that number of recovered infections, the longer the disease persists as an epidemic.

          1. OMFG
            YOU WANT 200-230 MILLION AMERICANS INFECTED, TO GET HERD IMMUNITY … 2 MILLION DEAD.

    4. “What about the hospital overload?”
      Only with a government over-regulated industry like our healthcare it seems there can be SHORTAGES; Hmmm…………… kinda like Venezuela shortages??!!??

      Medicare for the win – Medicaid for the win – Obamacare for the win!!!
      – FDA dictates they have full monopoly on charity and shuts down resource supplies to infected households
      – FDA bans over-the-counter in home COVID testing units

      The picture is the same; the FDA/CDC IS what is causing the shortages.

      1. TRUMP caused the shortages .. by DENYING there was a problem, until 19 days ago. … thereby allowing at least 2/3 of out total deaths.

        1. Insanity = Insisting the king wolf tend all matters of the sheep, then complaining that the king wolf ate the sheep…

          Lefty ideology – The problem *IS* the solution….

          1. insanity = Insisting the king wolf tend all matters

            Only the Presidency, bullshitter

        2. No Trump fan here … but why did Trump have that power in the first place?

          If people decided it was a problem, they should have been able to act before the government did anything. That the FDA and CDC has tied private actors hands is entirely the problem.

          1. Trump denied it was a problem until 20 days ago.
            Sneered that it was a Democrat hoax.
            That would just go away “magically”
            It’s just one guy back from China.
            Way back when we had only 15 infections, said it would be down to nearly zero in a few days.

            Since then … instead of ‘near zero” …. 239,000 new infections, 5,784 deaths …. while he kept refusing the mantle of leadership — personally allowing over 2/3 of those 5700 deaths

            AND HE WON’T RETURN PHONE CALLS TO GOVERNORS UNLESS THEY’RE NICE TO HIM! (Like everywhere else, MUST kiss his ass … while he screws them over)

    5. Lester, two things that have not really been commented upon.

      The virus strikes military-aged youth at an unusually high rate. They’re down for the count, and go on to recover. But tie up a lot of resources along the way. You could not engineer a more effective take-down of a country. A remarkable co-incidence, I’d say. /sarc

      We are about to see one of the largest transfers of wealth in history. I have to wonder how this plays out over time.

    6. What about the hospital overload? I don’t want to die from appendicitis because the hospitals are too full of Covid-19 cases to take me.

      Well, you can thank stupid government regulations, licensing, and restrictions on hospital capacity for that.

      In a free market, this would be between you and your health provider; you would make the choice to pay a bit more for disaster preparedness or take your chances, and you’d live with the consequences.

      In our collectivized system of medicine, you don’t have that choice, except perhaps for the very wealthy.

      1. NOW NOYB2 blames “stupid government” because we don’t ALWAYS have enough hospital capacity to handle a major pandemic! …. totally useless costs 95% of the time.

        Well, you can thank stupid government regulations, licensing, and restrictions on hospital capacity for that.

        What about Trump’s months of delays, denials and LIES (Democrat hoax) … which alone allowed at least 2/3 of all our deaths.

        1. NOW NOYB2 blames “stupid government” because we don’t ALWAYS have enough hospital capacity to handle a major pandemic!

          We don’t have enough hospital beds, period. Government regulations limit the number of hospital beds and are intended to keep prices high.

          …. totally useless costs 95% of the time.

          Insurance is “totally useless cost 95% of the time”; we still have it.

          What about Trump’s months of delays, denials and LIES (Democrat hoax) … which alone allowed at least 2/3 of all our deaths.

          What about your constant lies and factual errors?

          1. NOW NOYB2 blames “stupid government” because we don’t ALWAYS have enough hospital capacity to handle a major pandemic!

            We don’t have enough hospital beds, period.

            Prove it.

            What about Trump’s months of delays, denials and LIES (Democrat hoax) … which alone allowed at least 2/3 of all our deaths.

            What about your constant lies and factual errors?

            LAME: How many people did I allow to die?
            BE SPECIFIC, so I can jam the proof up your lying ass.

            1. Well, we obviously don’t have enough hospital beds to handle this emergency, for example, you pointed that out yourself. QED.

  28. Sullum is kinda right in that “with intervention maybe 200,000 thousand people will die instead of 2 million” is arbitrary and not much of a choice.

    What would happen if we loosened restrictions and let hair salons open? What about stores like Best Buys, which offers repair services? What if churches were allowed to open as long as they limited capacity? Would that lead to 500,000 additional deaths? 75,000 deaths? 1.5 million? 164,723 deaths?

    If this thing drags out to July, more and more people will head outside – for Cinco de Mayo, Memorial Day, fourth of July, birthday parties, whatever. They’ll be creative in skirting lockdown protocols without directly breaking them. Consumer behavior will take strange turns as certain cravings and demands start to take place. Underground commerce and speakeasies are all but inevitable, as is the usual tragedy that comes with enforcing prohibition.

    I see local politicians (in Corona virus updates) sort of pat the citizens on the head for heeding state recommendation. Good job, we’re in this together, etc. That’s not going to last for 8 straight weeks. TV ads show people practicing yoga, playing piano and dancing with their kids in quarantine. That’s not 90% of America. If something happened to the booze supply and streaming services, things will go sour fast.

    1. What about stores like Best Buys, which offers repair services? What if churches were allowed to open as long as they limited capacity? Would that lead to 500,000 additional deaths? 75,000 deaths? 1.5 million? 164,723 deaths?

      OBVIOUSLY a lot more would die. It’s … communicable. The easiest, most accurate, estimates are for a full lockdown – or obvious reasons.

      1. Fuck off, coward. We know exactly the price you’ll pay for government control over your life; you’ve made it clear:
        Save you from the flu bug and the government can control *all* of your life.
        What sterling principles a hypocrite claiming to be libertarian has! The first hint of danger, and you turn over your entire life to the government!
        Fuck off and die, slaver.

        1. I love watching lefties faces when their ‘so smart’ progressive plans are so easily defeated by –

          “If its such a great idea then why not start a ‘Demons’ membership club by contract where anyone’s can freely join and have their communist community.”

          Which always follows with one of two answer….
          – We know better than they do and so must dictate them
          – Our plan wont work without STEALING from unwilling people

          1. … all underlining the root cause of their flawed belief in;
            GUN-POWER/FORCE = WEALTH ( which is what criminals do ) .. vs ..
            VALUE = WEALTH.

      2. There’s no full lockdown, because people can still go outside to thousands of essential retail stores and restaurants that are open.

        The Chinese could either drag people to quarantine zone or imprison an entire apartment by welding their doors shut. We can’t do that here, but to save 200,000 lives, maybe we should!!!

        You think Americans will spend 3 months stuck at home without a peep? Get real.

        1. (yawn) hysteria
          28 days is enough to almost eliminate it, if done properly.

    2. “What would happen if we loosened restrictions and let hair salons open? What about stores like Best Buys, which offers repair services? What if churches were allowed to open as long as they limited capacity? Would that lead to 500,000 additional deaths? 75,000 deaths? 1.5 million? 164,723 deaths?”

      So you, too, are in love with Patrick Henry’s stirring quote: “Give me liberty unless I might catch the flu”…
      No, we are not in this together; when you go to city hall, kneel down, and beg them to tell you what to do for the next month, that won’t be me next to your pathetic pleas. I’ll be laughing at you while I’m going about my business.
      Fuck off, slaver.

  29. I’d love to see an actual scale on those ‘flatten the curve’ graphs, since it claims to measure in *days*.

    First *confirmed* community spread in the US was in early February ffs. We’re well past the point where we should have spiked for ‘no intervention’. of course, we also only have a window that looks at the state of infections 2 weeks into the past too, so we may possibly have peaked already, but we won’t know till the middle of the month.

    1. 99% here think you’re generally pretty stupid – must be a fact!

        1. VIDEO — The problem *IS* the solution. The government must *cure* this; but the governmental President *is* the problem.

          Perhaps the REAL problem is your incessant focus/ideology that this nation has a monarchy king. You’d have a hard time blaming President Trump if he wasn’t the monarchy king in Nazi land now wouldn’t you.

          1. You’d have a hard time blaming President Trump if he wasn’t the monarchy king in Nazi land now wouldn’t you.

            (smirk) YOU blamed Trump!
            The video is undeniable proof.

        2. “Video”
          Fucking hypocritic ‘libertarian’ now asks government to save him from what his mommy won’t! Poor slimy piece of shit is willing to turn over his entire life to the government if they, please, please, PLEASE, save him from getting the flu!
          And willing to use the government to make YOU help this slimy, cowardly, piece of shit.
          Fuck off and die, slaver.

    2. Oh, goody.
      Fucking lefty coward posts links showing other lefty cowards support this lefty coward who claims to be libertarian!
      Libertarian; someone who proposes that individual efforts are better than government coercion.
      Hihn, stuff your love for government coercion up your ass; perhaps your head needs some company, you scumbag hypocrite.

    3. It’s not surprising that people respond to the fear FascistLieTellers like you are spreading.

      66% said they would follow the instructions of medical doctors
      64% said they would follow the advice of the CDC,
      51% said they would follow the advice from their state’s governor
      46% would follow healthcare directions from local police.

      So none of your fascist orders are actually needed, because people will follow advice voluntarily.

      And your whole narrative falls apart.

      1. LIED ABOUT MY WORDS … PATHETIC
        THE WORDS AND CONTEXT HE LIES ABOUT ARE IN BOLD FACE.

        The March 26-27 opinion poll, released Friday, also showed that the public is much more likely to heed the advice of doctors and local government officials than President Donald Trump.

        66% said they would follow the instructions of medical doctors
        64% said they would follow the advice of the CDC,
        51% said they would follow the advice from their state’s governor
        46% would follow healthcare directions from local police.
        Only 31% are “very likely” to follow President Trump’s recommendations and advice

        How crazy are they?

        So none of your fascist orders are actually needed

        ADVICE = FASCIST ORDERS TO ALT-RIGHT CHICKEN LITTLES
        ==============

        VOTERS STRONGLY ENDORSE FINES, BAN ON INTERSTATE TRAVEL

        Voters are turning hardline in the face of the coronavirus. Two-out-of-three now want to ban travel between states and fine those who violate social distancing guidelines.

        Again … to minimize the risk to themselves and their loved ones, as the death rate accelerates.
        Rasmussen Polling is the most prominent Republican pollster

        Accelerating death count
        Mar 26 — First 1000 deaths (26 days)
        Mar 27-28 – Next 1,000 … Deaths double in TWO days
        Apr2, 5:01 PM Eastern – 5,800 total. Deaths up 580% in less than 7 days.

        1. Correction. What NOYb2 LIED ABOUT

          The March 26-27 opinion poll, released Friday, also showed that the public is much more likely to heed the advice of doctors and local government officials than President Donald Trump.

          66% said they would follow the instructions of medical doctors
          64% said they would follow the advice of the CDC,
          51% said they would follow the advice from their state’s governor
          46% would follow healthcare directions from local police.
          Only 31% are “very likely” to follow President Trump’s recommendations and advice

          NOBODY TRUSTS HIM!

          “recommendations and advice” are NOT fascist orders!! *sneer*

          1. “recommendations and advice” are NOT fascist orders!! *sneer*

            I’m glad you acknowledge that Trump is not a fascist.

            That’s why you hate him.

  30. I think Pres. Trump would personally like to move to something more relaxed (“the cure can’t be worse than the disease”), but there’s a lot of political pressure on him not to, and in the end its up to the state governors and local mayors. Maybe after April, there might be some change.

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  33. You complain and tell President Trump, “Listen to the Doctors”. However you then bashing President Trump for listening to the Doctors.

    The Doctors have presented statistical models. They use the model without any intervention to compare with proposed intervention methods.

    President Trump is not a Doctor and should not be expected know all the nuances of this or any other pandemic or virus. Nor should we expect any President to be an expert in any field.

    We do expect President’s to gather knowledge people ranging from Doctors and others regarding the Economic concerns. We should also expect that President’s will make difficult decisions balancing the conflicting positions.

    The reality is that no one really knows how it is going to eventually land. One thing I do know for sure is that the Doctors are much more credible than the author of this article or anyone in the Media.

    The Media including this author have an elevated sense of self that is borderline narcissistic at best. The Media does not report news and has not for several decades. It is far too tempting for the narcissistic Media to spin opinion articles as news.

    1. You’ve raised a very important and seriously underrated point about leadership here. “Nor should we expect any President to be an expert in any field.”

      This is spot on not just for the President, but any leader. Leaders shouldn’t be doing everything themselves. That’s not leadership. This isn’t even an effective way to get the job done. Leadership is about trusting your people, bringing them together, and synthesizing their subject area expertise to help everyone focus on the bigger picture.

      I usually lose the argument and get people to laugh at me the moment I say this, but CEOs really are a minority and deserve a more fair shake from society. Most people aren’t going to have the luxury of their parents already being leaders. The stakes just aren’t comparably high enough anywhere else and the leadership lessons they might get from sports or their church don’t apply to the harsh world of scarcity.

      I think this skill is what serves Trump best. His lack of expertise makes everyone think he’s a bumbling idiot, but he’s really not in the slightest.

      1. “Nor should we expect any President to be an expert in any field.”

        Except for Obama! He was brilliant! He knew nuclear physics, and general relativity, and understood Internet protocols, health care economics, and history as if he had been there! We need more brilliant geniuses like Obama! /sarc

    2. The Doctors have presented statistical models. They use the model without any intervention to compare with proposed intervention methods.

      “If we do nothing” isn’t about intervention, it has to do with behavior: social distancing, business closures, and other measures. Many of those measures can be taken voluntarily, without intervention.

      Trump wasn’t primarily advocating for intervention, he was advocating for voluntary changes in behavior. Big difference.

      1. In fact, the NBA/March Madness cancellations happened before they were forced. Clearly the people were already “doing something” long before government stepped in.

      2. “Voluntary changes in behavior.”

        Which the vast majority of us are doing. We are learning and adapting quickly.

        The real heroes are the people who produce, transport, and deliver essential items. Food, all of the others at the pharmacies, medical workers, police, EMS, They are not giving up.

        Humans are astonishing. Really they are.

        1. Faux “Conservatives” now screech that governments are NOT formed to protect and defend Life.

          THEY claim a God-Given Right to infect and kill innocent people.
          (And have NO clue what they advocate)

  34. Have yet to figure out how this is a “false choice”. Seems to me to be saying, “Hey, if we did nothing, predictions are this many would die at this rate. If we do this, this, and this, predictions are this many less would die at this lower rate.”

    Can’t see anything false there.

    1. Only imbeciles see false choices.

  35. Sullum completely missed the point of these press conferences. They aren’t for abstract academic discussions about semantics. They’re for the American people. The graph is saying if we do nothing at all, like if people and corporations don’t continue to respond the way they are, 1.5-2.2m could die. Why is he saying this? Because we still have fucking retards holding large gatherings and getting more people infected. Good on Trump for hitting the messaging home. “You can lead a horse to water but can’t make it drink” may be true, but that doesn’t mean you stop trying to lead the horse to water.

    1. And Sullum apparently has trouble understanding the difference between the baseline Trump was using (“if ‘we’ do nothing” i.e., “if everybody in the US behaved as if there were no epidemic”) and government action (“if ‘we’ do nothing” as in “if the government does nothing”). And the action Trump was advising wasn’t more draconian federal measures but self-restraint, individual responsibility, and state-level actions.

      That’s because, at heart, Sullum is a progressive who doesn’t believe in any of those things. At heart, Sullum wants the jackboot of government to stamp down on the country whenever he feels it’s beneficial to America’s collective well being.

  36. That horizontal axis of “days since first case” conveniently leaves off any numerical labels. Does anyone have any idea what they should be or, equivalently, where we are now on that axis?

    1. Government is interested in determining where we are on the curve because they are getting to play masters of the universe thanks to a government-caused lack of data.

      1. isn’t*

        Dammit.

      2. Accelerating death count

        Mar 26 — First 1000 deaths (26 days>

        Mar 27-28 – Next 1,000. Deaths double in TWO days

        Mar 29-30- Next 1,000. Deaths TRIPLE in two days

        Apr2, 12:37 PM – Next 2,300. Deaths up 530% in 6-1/2 days.

        1. So? You talk about this as if it were news, or surprising. How is this related to what we’re talking about?

          1. WHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOSH
            IT’S NOT A FALSE CHOICE.

            Anything else?

            1. He didn’t present a choice at all.

              “WHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOSH”

              1. HE SAID IT WAS A FALSE CHOICE … IT’S IN THE FUCKING TITLE

                1. Yes: Sullum’s title said “it’s a false choice”. But Sullum is wrong, because Trump never presented a choice in the first place. I corrected Sullum, and you simply keep repeating Sullum’s false statement.

        2. Deaths/day are a terrible way to measure where you are on infections, because current infections will cause deaths in the future. Deaths today were caused by infections in the past. Covid-19 has a relatively long incubation period (at least 5 days till first symptom and possibly as long as 9 or longer, even longer till symptoms become severe).

          Nor is it a good proxy for infections, because not all people infected die. In fact, it’s a pretty small percent. Especially since most infections are never confirmed, because most people have mild cases or no symptoms at all. Those people can still spread the virus. Exactly what the true CFR ends up being can’t be known now, but estimates are 0.1 to 1 percent, with the likely truth being somewhere in the middle. (It’s also significantly age dependent, so it will vary across communities based on age distribution).

          So we could well have peaked already for infections, but still be seeing the death toll climb rapidly.

      3. We know there are 5,300 deaths in only 6-1/2 days. and the pace is accelerating. PLEASE no gummint conspiracies.

        1. We know there are 5,300 deaths in only 6-1/2 days. and the pace is accelerating.

          Really? Where is the evidence that “the pace is accelerating”? For the last few days, we have had about 1000 deaths per day attributed to COVID.

          1. WTF? …

            for the last few days, we have had about 1000 deaths per day attributed to COVID.

            BULLSHIT!
            I GAVE YOU THE ACTUAL PACE, AND YOU SNEERED:

            So? You talk about this as if it were news, or surprising.

            Six minutes later, you say it’s NOT news and IS surprising!

            What’s your next dodge???

            1. (1) Your numbers were wrong. You confused a report of NY’s total death toll up to 12:37pm on April 2 (“2300”) with a national daily increase in death toll.

              (2) An increase in the daily death toll does not automatically imply an increase in the “pace” of the epidemic, so even if your numbers had been right, you’d still be wrong.

              Anything else?

              1. If daily deaths change from 5 to 500 the PACE is faster.
                If daily deaths change from 500 to 5, the PACE is slower.

                PACE means how fast the total deaths are changing.

                5,000, 5500, 6100, 6900 is increasing the pace — from 500 DPD, 600 DPD, 800 DPD.

                Still confused? Equate Deaths Per Day with MPH.
                50 MPH. 60 MPH, 70 MPH, 80 MPH is an increasing pace.

                ***PACE MEANS SPEED

                1. 5,000, 5500, 6100, 6900 is increasing the pace — from 500 DPD, 600 DPD, 800 DPD.

                  So you admit that your numbers were wildly wrong. Good, that’s a start.

                  50 MPH. 60 MPH, 70 MPH, 80 MPH is an increasing pace.

                  Correct. But an “accelerating pace” is different from an “increasing pace”.

                  The second problem with your reasoning is that current death rates tell you little about the effectiveness of countermeasures, because current death rates reflect infections from weeks ago. Therefore, today’s death tolls tell you little about the state of the epidemic right now.

  37. Rasmussen Polling is the most prominent Republican pollster

    VOTERS STRONGLY ENDORSE FINES, BAN ON INTERSTATE TRAVEL

    Voters are turning hardline in the face of the coronavirus. Two-out-of-three now want to ban travel between states and fine those who violate social distancing guidelines.

    Again … to minimize the risk to themselves and their loved ones.

    1. Again … to minimize the risk to themselves and their loved ones.

      Yes, that’s how the fascists justified murdering millions of people: “to minimize the risk to themselves and their loved ones”.

      Of course, you’d be on board with that.

      1. CHICKEN LITTLE HYSTERIA
        CONFUSES GOVERNMENT AND VOTERS omfg

        Yes, that’s how the fascists justified murdering millions of people: “to minimize the risk to themselves and their loved ones”.

        Fascists were the GOVERNMENT.
        “Millions of people” are the ones YOU would allow to die, AND THEY REJECT YOUR FASCISM

        1. Fascists were the GOVERNMENT.

          Yes, fascists were the government plus the voters that voted them into power, voters who thought that “minimizing the risk to themselves and their loved ones” was more important than anything else. Voters just like you.

          See, in a free society, it’s your responsibility to “minimize the risk to yourself and your loved ones”, and if you have failed at doing so, you don’t get to demand that others do it for you.

          You don’t want a free society; you want a fascist society in which collective outcomes override individual choice and individual responsibility.

          “Millions of people” are the ones YOU would allow to die

          Indeed: I think people should be allowed to die if they choose to die or make bad choices.

          1. Yes, fascists were the government

            I appreciate your retraction,

            “Millions of people” are the ones YOU would allow to die

            Indeed: I think people should be allowed to die if they choose to die or make bad choices.

            THE SURVEY YOU RIDICULED IS MILLIONS OF PEOPLE WHO CHOOSE TO LIVE … AND YOU DENY THEM THAT CHOICE.

            What’s your next mind game? 🙂

            1. I appreciate your retraction

              No, you just demonstrate your ability to selectively quote. Let me write it out again for you: Yes, fascists were the government plus the voters that voted them into power. Voters like you.

              THE SURVEY YOU RIDICULED IS MILLIONS OF PEOPLE WHO CHOOSE TO LIVE … AND YOU DENY THEM THAT CHOICE.

              Not at all. Those millions of people can shelter at home in any way they like. What I deny them is to do so at my expense.

              And I don’t “ridicule” them, I condemn their choice, a choice rooted in the misguided propaganda brownshirts like you are spreading.

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