Coronavirus

Trump Is Right To Worry About the Cost of Aggressive COVID-19 Control Measures

So far politicians have been acting as if only one side of the ledger matters.

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President Donald Trump is rightly worried that the "cure" for COVID-19—sweeping restrictions on travel, local movement, business activity, and work—could prove to be "worse" than the disease. That may already be true, because politicians have been acting as if only one side of this ledger matters.

Economists are predicting that the official response to the pandemic could lead to a downturn as bad as or worse than the Great Recession of 2008–09, which cost Americans an estimated $22 trillion. It is hard to see how a loss of that magnitude can be rationally justified.

When government agencies evaluate health or safety regulations, they routinely consider not only the number of deaths they might prevent but the cost of doing so. That makes sense, because finite resources spent to reduce one kind of risk, depending on the payoff, might better be spent or invested elsewhere, possibly in ways that would save more lives.

A rough calculation based on the "value of a statistical life" (VSL) that the Environmental Protection Agency uses to assess proposed regulations suggests that the cost of COVID-19 deaths in the worst-case scenario sketched by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), which assumes that containment and suppression efforts are largely ineffective, would be huge: on the order of $13.6 trillion. But if the economic projections are right, the cost of aggressive COVID-19 control measures will be substantially higher.

That comparison assumes government intervention will be completely successful at preventing those deaths, which is certainly not true, and it uses a VSL that is arguably excessive in this case, since COVID-19 fatalities are concentrated among the elderly, meaning fewer years of life lost on average. Furthermore, there are sound reasons to think that the worst-case scenario, which imagines 214 million infections (65 percent of the population) and 1.7 million deaths, is unrealistic.

The true case fatality rate (CFR) for COVID-19, although probably higher than the CFR for the seasonal flu (about 0.1 percent), is likely to be much lower than the rates suggested by the official numbers, which include only confirmed cases. Since COVID-19 symptoms are typically mild to nonexistent, the actual number of infections is bound to be much higher.

Taking that "denominator problem" into account, Assistant Secretary for Health Brett Giroir says, "the best estimates now for the overall mortality rate for COVID-19 [are] somewhere between 0.1 percent and 1 percent." Based on data from the cruise ship Diamond Princess, John Ioannidis, an epidemiologist and biostatistician at Stanford University, calculates that "reasonable estimates for the case fatality ratio in the general U.S. population vary from 0.05% to 1%."

The CDC's projection implies a COVID-19 CFR of 0.8 percent, near the high end of those ranges. And the scenario implausibly assumes that voluntary measures to curtail the spread of COVID-19, such as avoiding crowds, limiting social interactions, and paying extra attention to hygiene, have no impact on transmission.

There is a great deal of uncertainty about these projections, and public officials may think they are erring on the side of caution. But that is true only if you ignore the potentially devastating impact of disrupting economic transactions, shutting down businesses, and depriving millions of people of their livelihoods.

Ioannidis worries that if the CFR for COVID-19 is much lower than many people fear, "locking down the world with potentially tremendous social and financial consequences may be totally irrational." David Katz, founding director of the Yale-Griffin Prevention Research Center, favors a more carefully targeted approach that focuses on protecting the people who face the greatest risk, saying he is "deeply concerned that the social, economic and public health consequences of this near total meltdown of normal life…will be long lasting and calamitous, possibly graver than the direct toll of the virus itself."

In settling on an appropriate response to COVID-19, there are no easy answers. But wise policy starts by recognizing the tradeoffs that politicians so far have been inclined to ignore.

© Copyright 2020 by Creators Syndicate Inc.

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  1. I’m sure not a fan of Bill Gates – but he does have the best quote for this:

    Hey keep going to restaurants, go buy new houses, ignore that pile of bodies over in the corner, we want you to keep spending because GDP growth is what counts

    1. He never said that. Oh, it’s you. THIS is what he REALLY said. Shame on you.

      BILL GATES PREDICTED A VIRUS CATASTROPHE …. IN 2015

      “We are not ready for the next epidemic,” said Gates in 2015. (He) mentioned the details about Ebola and stated that “the problem was not that system did not work well enough but the problem was we did not have any system at all.”

      In the Ted Talk titled ‘The next outbreak? We’re not ready’, Bill Gates predicted that the next outbreak would be more devastating than Ebola.

      “The failure to prepare could allow the next epidemic to be dramatically more devastating than Ebola.”

      Gates cited the fact that Ebola did not reach many urban cities or else the results would have been greater. Next time we might not be so lucky,” His words have somehow predicted the Coronavirus epidemic’s dangers.

      COVID-19 has barely begun … and has ALREADY hit major urban centers, worldwide. So WILL be worse than Ebola,

      President Trump deserves praise for reversing two months of delays and denials ,… “It’s a Democrat hoax” … “It will magically disappear” and similar bullshit.

      Vice President Pence, a former governor and the leader of the federal response to the coronavirus, urged Americans on Monday to respect state and local restrictions that are in many cases tougher than those imposed by the Trump administration.

      “We made it clear to the governors that this president and this administration fully supports decisions that governors are making in communities and states that are particularly impacted by the spread of the coronavirus and we are grateful for their efforts,” Pence said

      1. This is what he actually said…

        ‘There really is no middle ground, and it’s very tough to say to people, “Hey, keep going to restaurants, go buy new houses, [and] ignore that pile of bodies over in the corner. We want you to keep spending because there’s maybe a politician who thinks GDP growth is all that counts.” ’— Bill Gates

        https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bill-gates-on-trump-call-for-quick-end-to-lockdown-its-tough-to-tell-people-keep-going-to-restaurants-go-buy-new-houses-ignore-that-pile-of-bodies-over-in-the-corner-2020-03-24

        1. That’s a PARTIAL excerpt. In context Gates REBUKED Trump’s proposed opening of the economy. And your source lied.

          YOUR source cited, linked to ITS source, Vox Mediasite Recode, cited below IN CONTEXT. The title and subtitle alone rebuke JFree.

          You may not know that, In cases like this, it’s always best to check the original source, because your source lied, using partial paragraph, omitting THE key words.

          Original source. My emphasis added.

          BILL GATES SAYS “WE CAN’T RESTART THE ECONOMY SOON, AND SIMPLY IGNORE THAT PILE OF BODIES IN THE CORNER.”
          Gates rebuked the proposal of leaders like Donald Trump”
          (Mar 24)

          Bill Gates rebuked proposals, floated over the last two days by leaders like Donald Trump, to reopen the global economy despite the Covid-19 coronavirus outbreak, saying that this approach would be “very irresponsible.”

          Gates did not mention Trump by name …

          Your source omitted the paragraph ending, Gates’ POINT, in bold below

          “There really is no middle ground, and it’s very tough to say to people, ‘Hey, keep going to restaurants, go buy new houses, ignore that pile of bodies over in the corner. We want you to keep spending because there’s maybe a politician who thinks GDP growth is all that counts,’” Gates said in an interview with TED Tuesday. “It’s very irresponsible for somebody to suggest that we can have the best of both worlds.”…

          not to politicians!

          ***…Asked what he would do if he were president, Gates returned to his concerns about reopening the economy.

          “The economic effect of this is really dramatic. Nothing like this has ever happened to the economy in our lifetimes,” Gates said. “But bringing the economy back … that’s more of a reversible thing than bringing people back to life. So we’re going to take the pain in the economic dimension — huge pain — in order to minimize the pain in the diseases-and-death dimension.”

          The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation has put up $100 million for programs to fund testing and science around the pandemic, and he has begun using his public profile, too, to shape the coronavirus conversation

          The phony quote looks like a typical distortion, by a very partisan player, to manipulate Trump supporters.

          1. It might be worth noting that when Bill Gates talks here about “taking the pain in the economic dimension”, he is most assuredly not talking about himself. He’ll be fine. He just wants all you other little people to “take the pain”.

            1. Yeah, Microsoft profits and stock price won’t be affected at all.

            2. “He’ll be fine. He just wants all you other little people to “take the pain”.”
              That’s the key point to this entire issue. The people making the choices to lock everything down don’t generally live paycheck to paycheck, own small businesses, or live in efficiency apartments. They have access to exercise equipment, spare freezers to store extra food, assistants to wait in line for toilet paper, and can wait this out as long as they need.

              1. The people making the choices to lock everything down don’t generally live paycheck to paycheck,

                They’re professional scientists. Who know what they’re doing! Which means qualified for the job. And a President who was elected to PERFORM the job.

                The scientists have finally convinced Trump that his original, nationwide, re-opening would be catastrophic in the virus “hot spots.” (Like New York)

                Plus, many governors would simply ignore him, which THEY were elected to do.

                Trump said so himself at the press conference, yesterday, that a single, one size fits all, policy would be wrong. There are VERY wide differences in how the virus has affected different states, or large sections within large states

                Further, New York is SO bad that the administration also asked EVERYONE who has left New York recently to … self-quarantine for 14 days

                Who would you have making these critical, life-saving decisions?

                1. “Who would you have making these critical, life-saving decisions?”

                  I honestly don’t know brother. I don’t think that there is a good answer, and certainly not from a peon like me. But there’s something that tickles my hackles with your appeal to the wisdom of “Top-Men” and Technocrats. Or are you just messing around with us?

                  1. This is Hihn you’re talking to. He’s insane. I mean that in a clinical sense.

                    1. P.S. Eric doesn’t know what technocrat is either!
                      (Unless he “thinks” Trump is a technocrat.)

                      For the uninformed. a technocracy is a government RUN by technocrats. Not ADVISED by them. THAT is why Eric would prefer an auto mechanic as a dentist. And REFUSE to hire an accountant as a bookkeeper!

                  2. But there’s something that tickles my hackles with your appeal to the wisdom of “Top-Men” and Technocrats. Or are you just messing around with us?

                    1) Get back to me when an auto mechanic is your dentist. (lol)

                    2) YOU say you have NO CLUE who should be making these life-saving decisions, then REVERSE yourself and claim to be an expert … ON THE SAME THING YOU’RE CLUELESS ABOUT!

                    And THAT is why I’ll seek a professional over you, every time.

                    1. “ 1) Get back to me when an auto mechanic is your dentist. (lol)“

                      Get back to me when public policy is a science and not implemented by idiots who won a popularity contest. (Or appointed by said idiots).

                      2) YOU say you have NO CLUE who should be making these life-saving decisions, then REVERSE yourself and claim to be an expert … ON THE SAME THING YOU’RE CLUELESS ABOUT!”

                      Where did I claim to be an expert on anything?
                      Christ you are a piece of work Hihn.

                    2. Where did I claim to be an expert on anything?

                      (lol) Your wacky statement that the nation’s top medical experts should not be trusted … never saying who can be trusted … which is why you must assume that a dentist cannot be trusted to deal with your teeth.

                      Possibly caused by your ignorance of what “Top Men” means .

                      http://urbandictionary.com/define.php?
                      term=top%20men
                      “People who gets things done.”

                      Obviously not you, which may explain your contempt for your betters.

                      Or perhaps wildly irrational.

                      All of these obviously also apply to whoever BRAGS about being a shitlord

                      “Shitlord” is a pejorative often used on the Internet against those who are perceived as racist, sexist, homophobic, fat shaming or otherwise prejudicial

                      And a sock, invented by one who has been banned, and all his comments deleted., to get around the ban.

                    3. Get back to me when public policy is a science and not implemented by idiots who won a popularity contest. (Or appointed by said idiots).

                      We agree Trump is an idiot. But what are you,

                      You say Dr. Fauci is an idiot, who was appointed and retained because he won MULTIPLE popularity contests, under six Presidents … for over 30 years

                      Dr. Fauci was appointed Director of NIAID in 1984. He oversees an extensive research portfolio of basic and applied research to prevent, diagnose, and treat established infectious diseases such as HIV/AIDS, respiratory infections, diarrheal diseases, tuberculosis and malaria as well as emerging diseases such as Ebola and Zika. NIAID also supports research on transplantation and immune-related illnesses, including autoimmune disorders, asthma and allergies. The NIAID budget for fiscal year 2020 is an estimated $5.9 billion.

                      Dr. Fauci has advised six Presidents on HIV/AIDS and many other domestic and global health issues. He was one of the principal architects of the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), a program that has saved millions of lives throughout the developing world.But YOU say he won a popularity contest!!!

                      I’d ask YOUR qualifications, but we can all assume your answer
                      I don’t need no steeeenking qualifacations. But there’s something that tickles my hackles with your appeal to the wisdom of “Top-Men” and Technocrats. Or were you just messing around with us?How large is your paper route?

      2. You say its “ALREADY hit major urban centers” as if that’s some sort of end stage for this, when in fact a virus like this hits the densest populations FIRST. Its not really comparable to Ebola in this respect as the transmission methods are very different

        1. You say its “ALREADY hit major urban centers” as if that’s some sort of end stage for this

          Read it again. Next

          FROM SOURCE
          Gates cited the fact that Ebola did not reach many urban cities or else the results would have been greater. Next time we might not be so lucky,”

          ME
          “COVID-19 has barely begun … and has ALREADY hit major urban centers, worldwide. So WILL be worse than Ebola”

          See it, now?

          when in fact a virus like this hits the densest populations FIRST

          That’s HIS point, and MINE.
          Ebola NEVER hit major urban centers
          CORVID-19 began in one. Metro Seattle, where Gates happens to live, and Microsoft HQ. And over half our cases are in … New York City.

          Its not really comparable to Ebola in this respect as the transmission methods are very different

          How is that even remotely relevant, when there are far fewer people to infect?

          1. “CORVID-19 began in one. Metro Seattle,”

            And here I thought it all began in Wuhan, China. 😉

          2. We’re talking the United States ,,, explicitly. 🙂

    2. All the pessimists like to bandy about thousands dying per day.

      Let’s bandy about an economy so shot to shit that GDP drops to half its current level, unemployment rate of 50%. How many people do you think would die from that?

      Hell yes the economy matters! That’s where government gets its taxes from, if you care about nothing else. It’s what allows people the luxury of 3D printing respirators, or turning entire factories over to making masks. Without a functioning economy, you wouldn’t have nearly as many doctors, hospitals, or medical equipment.

      Fucking maroons seem to think saying “If it saves even one life” justifies killing millions from a trashed economy. You idjuts don’t have a clue what you are talking about.

      1. You don’t get it do you. The virus ain’t going away just cuz you want GDP to keep growing. I’m pretty sure the virus doesn’t even care which DeRp wins in 2020.

        We screwed up by failing to act early re this virus specifically and by a ton of other ways in which we have failed over the decades. Now we’re gonna pay.

        Either we keep the total serious case load below the number of ventilators/ICU’s and run probably a 0.8-1.4% fatality rate for those infected. ‘Social adjustment’ wise, this is the option that requires the massive stuff that is being mandated by govt.

        Or we don’t keep it below that and we run a 4-11% fatality rate overall for those infected. This pretty much requires no action at all.

        That’s it. The number of infected will have to be roughly idk 60 or 70% of the population maybe before it slows down to below R0. That’s the two options – with I suppose a third one to go back and forth between the two. If you think GDP is gonna keep growing in either of those scenarios, you’re a complete twit.

        1. You are ignorant beyond belief if you think medicine of any sort can protect against a pandemic without a functioning economy.

          You are a statist of the most deluded sort.

          1. P.S. I just posted a detailed explanation of what you’re missing. The long one below (other comments may get in the middle.

            The biggest was a major change yesterday. They’ll be opening PORTIONS of the country … where that curve JFree described is downward. Keep tight restrictions on the worst states and areas, tighter on the very worst (which got Italy’s curve headed downward, after 793 deaths in one day, from 1/5 our population. That’s 4,000 in one day here, and we just doubled in a single day.

            A nationwide opening is now dead. The administration just advised anyone who visited NYC to self-quarantine for 14 days.

            Ya think Trump will open New York in two weeks?
            (Governor Cuomo would refuse)

          2. You are ignorant beyond belief if you think medicine of any sort can protect against a pandemic without a functioning economy.

            And you are still utterly clueless as to what is happening. You are not even trying to understand the thing itself. Just lashing out blindly at someone who says things you don’t want to hear.

            You think I am a ‘statist’. I’m not in office. I am an anonymous commenter on a thread. I’m not imposing anything on you. Nor, bluntly, are you remotely worth that effort. Outside my family concerns, this pandemic is nothing more than the supreme intellectual exercise and learning experience of all – a chance to see how every society on Earth deals with the same fast-moving threat at the same time. Those that succeed (relatively) in this, will succeed in future when it recedes. Those that don’t, wont.

            1. Who said you are imposing anything on me> Where did you dig up that strawman?

              Go ahead, imagine your perfect healthy world devoid of any money to pay for its medical miracles because the economy has crashed. Only socialists think prices are meaningless and resources grow on trees. Because that’s what money is, in the end — representation of resources. When your dream world has a crashed economy because you’ve locked it down and put half the people out of work, half the resources won’t be produced, and the lack of symmetry means half of what you do produce won’t be half delivered.

                1. I think it’s perfectly relevant to be concerned with the economic costs of economic shutdown over a few months. It is very likely more people will die of the disease if we do less to contain it; it is very likely to overwhelm hospitals in the process of people dying. This will take months, but eventually most people will have it and hence, immunity to the current strain.

                  Or, we can try to stop it spreading for months, incur the economic losses, and when we get there we could still have a virus that is stubbornly persisting. Do we then shut down the economy for another three months and go for round two at stopping the invisible man from moving around? Or do we accept we can’t stop this thing without a vaccine, and prioritize that while going back to work?

                  At what point do we admit we can’t quarantine an invisible adversary (without essentially nullifying freedom) and keep the economy running?

                  1. At what point do we admit we can’t quarantine an invisible adversary (without essentially nullifying freedom) and keep the economy running?

                    Well since we have the option to run a lower fatality rate (unlike the Third World), my guess is we will choose to run the higher fatality rate when we choose to accept those higher fatalities as acceptable AND base notions of what ‘the economy’ will be on that higher fatality rate.

                    Right now – the people advocating ‘getting the economy going’ are essentially denying there is any fatality rate of significance. so they are useless in advocating for anything unless the fatality rate here has absolutely no relationship to what it has shown in every place (including here so far) with this virus to date.

            2. “every society on Earth deals with the same fast-moving threat at the same time”

              So, Predator has arrived?

              If so, easy answer. Call up Alien.

        2. Neither did any of the scourges our ancestors endured but guess what they kept working. They didn’t sit at home until polio was no longer a threat. The virus is not going away no matter how long you stay inside.

          You can’t have a society where nobody produces. That is far worse than the virus itself. Also, its been around since November. So

          1. Neither did any of the scourges our ancestors endured but guess what they kept working.

            How large were their gatherings? How many died?

            The virus is not going away no matter how long you stay inside.

            NOT the purpose at all. You won’t get infected. You won’t infect others.
            The real purpose is to slow the new infections. America’s just doubled in a single day. In hot areas, hospitals are already overwhelmed, with severe shortages in masks, ventilators, even the protective gear needed by doctors and nurses.

            1) This is 25 times more deadly than swine flu, and more contagious.
            2) We MUST stay within the capacity of our already overloaded hospitals. Example: New York City is converting its main convention center into a 1,000 bed hospital, and needs tens of thousands of masks.
            3) Until a vaccine has been developed and tested,
            4) Last week, we were on a curve to hit 4,000 deaths in one day,within 2 weeks. What happens if your way leads to 10,000 deaths in one day, and the curve is still going upward? We get 20,000.

            You can’t have a society where nobody produces.

            If anyone proposes that, let us know. The latest remedy looks like a PHASED re-opening of the economy, starting with (IIRC) 10 or so safe states, keeping restrictions on other states until the bend the curve downward, tighter restrictions on the very worst places — New York City now has over half America’s infections. They’re now doing deep research on those “safe” areas, to make sure there are no minor glitches.

            This is all too new to have good data. The first death was 26 days go.

            People who have recently left New York are estimated to cause 40% of all new US infections. This is recent, but are you aware the Trump Administration now asks everyone who left New York recently … to self-quarantine for 14 days.

            1. “1) This is 25 times more deadly than swine flu, and more contagious.”

              You really need to stop with this. The numbers you use don’t say what you think they say, and we do not yet know the actual CFR for COVID-19. Even the CFR for seasonal flu or H1N1 is based on statistical modeling rather than direct measurement, and we haven’t done that statistical modeling for COVID-19 yet, so we don’t have numbers that we can legitimately compare.

              1. Clearly you have no idea what this is about, or how to use relevant data. I know you’ve seen the relevant data I posted, because you made the same comment.

                The ONLY valid way to compare two communicable diseases is to … compare their daily progress, day-by-day.

                As you’ve seen — and forgotten? — those data are based on the first 16 days of EACH disease

                As you’ve also seen, this is how corvid and swine flu compare, each 16 days from their first death. (just data, not the full summary)

                The CDC had confirmed 75 COVID-19 deaths through (last)) Monday. By contrast, 16 days after the first swine flu death, there were only three H1N1 deaths reported to the CDC.

                75/3 = COVID-19 is 25 times more deadly than swine flu

                The CDC estimates about 12,000 Americans ended up dying from swine flu between April 2009 and April 2010.

                12,000 x 25 = 300,000
                Graphic comparison charts at the source

                **”… (swine flu) didn’t go away. Many people don’t realize it’s now part of the seasonal flu and covered by the annual flu vaccine. … COVID-19 is completely new, is hitting on top of the seasonal flu, has no vaccine and clearly warrants the stronger response because nobody is immune. “The challenge with COVID-19 is we are all eligible to get sick and spread the disease all at the same time

                1. No, [ynh] is correct.

                  The baseline that reporter chose for comparison, 2009-2010 H1N1, has a mortality rate of 0.02% per the CDC, and that low mortality rate makes it easy to naively assert that COVID-19 is far worse than it actually is. There was a lot of initial fear about H1N1 because it appeared to be much more deadly than it actually was. The primary basis for that early assessment was the high death rate in the area of Mexico where it was first reported, but that was actually rooted in poverty and lack of resources in that area.

                  Worse, the reporter (and you) obviously has no understanding of basic statistical reasoning nor epidemiology. Feel free to challenge this point by proffering the reporter’s qualifications in those areas. He makes the fundamental mistake which Hans Rosling called the “straight line error”. You can read all about it in chapter 3 of his book “Factfulness”. Considering the broader situation, you should also read chapter 4. From what I’ve seen of all your posts, regardless of topic, you would dearly benefit from reading the entire book – twice – before ever posting again on anything, here or anywhere else.

                  The WHO is even being careful not to refer to the current ratio of deaths to known infections as a mortality rate. Why? Because they understand epidemiology and the valid statistical methodologies. That reporter from WWL-TV clearly does not.

                  Oh, and why an online article by some local TV station reporter who has no relevant qualifications? Why that source instead of the CDC or WHO? Sure, New Orleans is a large TV market, but local news tends to be quite good at covering local issues, yet tends to be lacking when it comes to national/global issues. Perhaps because you found something that you can link as a source which, regardless of its folly, supports your views and desired narrative, while also appearing credible to the mathematically unsophisticated. Good show, sir! If you ever tire of posting here, there’s undoubtedly a Russian troll farm with a well-paying job tailor made for you.

                  You are drunk on fear. I’ll be on the edge of my seat waiting to see whether I receive a smirk or a sneer – don’t disappoint me!

                  1. The baseline that reporter chose for comparison, 2009-2010 H1N1, has a mortality rate of 0.02% per the CDC,

                    The baseline is per the CDC.

                    I have a source. You have nothing.

                    1. [So, for some reason, a similar reply in another article was marked as awaiting moderation. That post seems to be stuck in limbo, so I’ll copy that reply here as two responses, under the assumption that it had too many URLs. First, though, I’ll address your terse reply.]

                      “The baseline is per the CDC.”

                      The mortality rate I quoted is per the CDC, but they are not using 2009-2010 H1N1 as a baseline for comparing COVID-19 for the purposes of developing recommendations for policy makers and the public. If you can prove otherwise, please provide a link to a credible source, ideally from the CDC or WHO.

                      “I have a source. You have nothing.”

                      Your source is a local reporter with a case of Dunning–Kruger Effect. My sources were in the prior post, but since it is “stuck” I’ll re-post it split across three responses; here’s the first part:

                      “The WWL-TV article you linked is almost as useful as a junkyard Yugo. Primarily, the author reaches an unsupportable conclusion on the basis of a facile analysis.

                      In short, simplistically comparing the spread of the two diseases in the way that he does is invalid. But you shouldn’t take my word for it. Instead, note how the WHO is unwilling to assess COVID-19 by such direct and simplistic comparisons with 2009 H1N1: https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-h1n1-totally-chill/partly-false-claim-covid-19-and-h1n1-numbers-compared-the-public-was-totally-chill-during-the-h1n1-pandemic-of-2009-2010-while-covid-19-is-causing-mass-hysteria-idUSKBN2172HT

                      [See next response for the relevant quoted paragraphs, with expanded URLs.]

                    2. (sigh) That one’s “awaiting moderation”, too, perhaps forever. At the prior URL, it’s the last two paragraphs before the “Verdict” section at the end which address the matter of the WHO being unwilling, for good reasons, to declare the preliminary numbers for the ration of deaths to cases as a mortality rate.

                      [Hey, Reason! Maybe you should beg Koch to buy you a message board that’s better than something I would have written as an undergrad Comp. Sci. project.]

                  2. Oh, and why an online article by some local TV station reporter who has no relevant qualifications? Why that source instead of the CDC or WHO?

                    BOTH are named sources!
                    NEAR THE VERY TOP!!! *smirk*

                    data from the World Health Organization and U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to track the increase of H1N1 swine flu in 2009 from the day of the first death – April 28th, 2009 — compared with the rise of COVID-19 since the first U.S. coronavirus death was reported in Washington on Feb. 29.

                    “Statistical genius” .. but LESS than a 6th grade reading level!!!!

                    1. “BOTH are named sources!
                      NEAR THE VERY TOP!!! *smirk*”

                      You capacity for disingenuous assertions knows no limits. How convenient that you omitted the “WWL-TV used”, which makes the relevant quote:

                      “WWL-TV used data from the World Health Organization and U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to track the increase of H1N1 swine flu in 2009 from the day of the first death – April 28th, 2009 — compared with the rise of COVID-19 since the first U.S. coronavirus death was reported in Washington on Feb. 29.”

                      So, the _reporter_ made that statistically absurd comparison, _not_ the CDC or WHO. If you’re looking to toss the “6th grade reading level taunt” at someone, try starting with the man in the mirror. Except that’s not it, is it? No, it isn’t. It’s your own pathetic dishonesty which you have displayed here for all to plainly see.

                      “Statistical genius”

                      Those are your words, not mine; I made no such claim about myself. I merely pointed out the foolish statistical error of one reporter, your _only_ source for your fear-mongering. I also pointed out your naive credulousness, though that’s an undeservedly favorable interpretation of your utterly transparent motivations.

                      Since you apparently could not understand the prior simple request for a better source, perhaps because you would have lost in the first round of that old TV show “Are you smarter than a fifth-grader?”, let me try to reword it for you with greater clarity and precision: Produce a reputable source, ideally from the CDC or WHO, which definitively asserts the same _conclusion_ as your vaunted reporter reached, based on the _same_ simplistic comparison of the _same_ brief period of data. I apologize for not finding a way to express that using only monosyllabic words, but you obviously have internet access, so do avail yourself of dictionary.com as needed.

                    2. CAUGHT RED-HANDED!

                      “BOTH are named sources!
                      NEAR THE VERY TOP!!! *smirk*”

                      You capacity for disingenuous assertions knows no limits. How convenient that you omitted the “WWL-TV used”,

                      NAMED SOURCES

                    3. So, the _reporter_ made that statistically absurd comparison,

                      ***WHAT’S *YOUR* SOURCE? *snort*

                    4. “CAUGHT RED-HANDED!”

                      Yes, you were caught red-handed omitting “WWL-TV used” from your quote, an omission which intentionally misrepresents the facts of the matter. Thanks for finally showing just a little bit of honesty, but you’ve got a lot more work to do on yourself in that area.

                      “NAMED SOURCES”

                      Named sources which don’t prove what you misrepresent them as proving, and you know it, and now so does anyone with the endurance to follow this sub-thread. For future reference, the all-caps and bold text do not make your poor source more correct or authoritative.

                      “WHAT’S *YOUR* SOURCE? *snort*”

                      Your source is invalid, and you know it. In response, you expect me to provide a source to all of the statistically invalid conclusions which the CDC and WHO _didn’t_ publish…I have the feeling you failed “Introduction to the Philosophy of Logic” in college, given that you’ve just revealed that you don’t understand the general problem of proving a negative.

                      Since I (and of course, by definition, every person) cannot prove a general negative, the closest I could get to that is via the link I _already_ provided, which you, of course, failed to acknowledge, or perhaps even read: https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-h1n1-totally-chill/partly-false-claim-covid-19-and-h1n1-numbers-compared-the-public-was-totally-chill-during-the-h1n1-pandemic-of-2009-2010-while-covid-19-is-causing-mass-hysteria-idUSKBN2172HT

                      This time I’ll put the relevant paragraphs here without the expanded URLs, in the hope that this post won’t go into moderation limbo:

                      “Calculating mortality rates during a disease epidemic is difficult, in part because the numbers of deaths and patients constantly change. That’s why World Health Organization (WHO) officials – who said last week that 3.4% of the people worldwide confirmed as having been infected with the new coronavirus had died – were careful not to describe that as a mortality rate or death rate (here). In 2013, Reuters reported (here) that at least one in five people worldwide were infected with swine flu during the first year of the 2009-2010 H1N1 pandemic, according to an international research group at the time, but the death rate was just 0.02 percent.

                      Updated daily, the latest figures on COVID-19 cases and deaths in the U.S. can be found on the CDC website here”

                      That specific excerpt “…careful not to describe that as a mortality rate or death rate…” is where you have unequivocally lost this debate. But you knew that already, didn’t you? Because if you didn’t already know that your “25 times as deadly” statement is hokum, you would have kept using such an alarming figure in subsequent posts to other articles. But you’ve stopped doing that, haven’t you? Anyone can see that by simply looking for your posts in later COVID-19 articles (all the pointless bold text makes them easy to spot, so I’m sure they’ll be thankful to you for that), which just shows that you already know you’ve lost.

                      Oh, and purely for your edification, those three dots I placed at the beginning and end of that excerpt I pulled from the larger quote are called “ellipses” (plural, singular “ellipsis”). That’s how people quote properly when they’re _not_ trying to disingenuously misrepresent the words of others. You should try it sometime, even if just for a change of pace.

                      Finally, a “snort” this time? Does your sneer hurt? Is you smirker worn out? I can only assume you’ve removed or covered all the mirrors and other reflective surfaces in your home, on the off chance that you might unintentionally see yourself for what you really are.

                      To borrow an old game show quote: “_You_ are the weakest link! Goodbye!”

                      YHL, HAND

              2. Just ignore him. It’s Hihn. He’s an insane gibbering idiot. He just attacks everyone, no matter what.

                1. “Just ignore him. It’s Hihn. He’s an insane gibbering idiot. He just attacks everyone, no matter what.“

                  I couldn’t have said it any better myself.

            2. Garbage in, garbage out — the only reliable data is so minuscule as to be lumped in with the rest of the garbage data. Meanwhile, common sense says if the infection rate keeps doubling, we will all be dead in a month anyway, so you’ve got that wrong. Common sense also says that if you destroy the economy in a quest for perfection, you will have destroyed the village in order to save it.

          2. guess what they kept working.

            Actually no they didn’t. These are exactly the times when the militia was mustered and mobilized into action. When the times called for action as a community directed towards a common threat. Yes – they kept ‘working’ but no they did not keep doing what they had previously done. And whatever resources they had on hand and had prepared for ahead of time and had trained ahead of time for – well that’s what could for better or worse be mobilized.

            We are in ‘lockdown’ or whatever because we no longer have that. It’s too late to train anybody. We didn’t stockpile the sorts of resources that could do anything. Absent that, getting together to mill around makes things worse. Like mustering on the pier with a bunch of spoons to watch an incoming tsunami. Caught with our pants down.

            We chose to abdicate our governance to others. The strain of ‘libertarianism’ here has proven stunningly corrosive to the very idea of that that we used to have. This is where we are.

            1. I know most people here pretend to worship history but have no interest in history-as-it-was. It’s just a different cudgel to beat up others you oppose now. Not a way to learn how our ancestors actually dealt with threats

              I’m certain here no one here even ran across how different places dealt with the plague in Black Death times when studying the medieval. Or yellow fever cholera etc at other time. Very few have any experience whatsoever of modern epidemics in the Third World since of course those only happen in shitholes. Until 2 weeks ago, I am 100% certain few here realized the Spanish and other foreigners invaded in 1918 and brought flu.

              An oblivious complacent people. Unpleasant topics are – unpleasant. Let’s ignore them instead.

            2. The strain of ‘libertarianism’ here has proven stunningly corrosive to the very idea of that that we used to have

              Thar “strain” is called anti-government, now dominant … as opposed to the original dominant stain, pro-liberty pro-people

              Advancing individual liberty always limits or reduces government.
              Slashing government, as the first priority, can REDUCE liberty, by enacting the opposite of free-market outcomes — as they mostly do today … like slashing Medicaid, instead of transitioning back to the free-market outcome — which WAS universal coverage! Progressives began shouting, “Health care should be a RIGHT, not depending on charity.” (that’s where it began.)

              Now it’s a right, but Medicaid eligibles are the HIGHEST uninsured rate in America. Many doctors refuse MediCARE, because it pays so little. MediCAID pays 25-30% less, so many inner-cities have no doctors at all (they’d have ONLY Medicaid.)

              Sorry, you “triggered” me. 🙂

        3. “idk”

          That certainly appears to be true…

      2. Let’s bandy about an economy so shot to shit that GDP drops to half its current level, unemployment rate of 50%. How many people do you think would die from that?

        A teeny, tiny fraction. How do you assume they would die?

        We just doubled our cases in a single day. Even NYC doubles every three days. NYC has over 50% of the US total. Last Thursday, our slope was to 4,000 deaths in one day, by month-end. 1 person infects 2 … 2 infect 4 … 4 infect 8 … that’s the curve that MUST be flattened, or it continues at an escalating pace.

        What happens to the economy, at 10,000 deaths in one day, when the curve has not flattened? We go to 20,000.

        Fucking maroons seem to think saying “If it saves even one life” justifies killing millions from a trashed economy. You idjuts don’t have a clue what you are talking about.

        They are idjuts, but you say corvid will kill only one person.

        All the pessimists like to bandy about thousands dying per day.

        No, simple math. Italy had 793 deaths in one day, from 1/5 our population. That’s 4,000 per day in our population, and we just doubled our cases in one day. Plus, Italy forced their curve downward with very strict lockdowns … and Trump wants to do the exact opposite.

        But, he’s already backed off, per Tuesday’s press conference, finally influenced by the health professionals he’s ignored … at a meeting that day.

        Dr Fauci now has the influence we need. For now? Trump now says we can open PORTIONS of the country, then Fauci stepped up and explained it all.

        Many parts of the country have low incidence and can be reopened. Opening other parts (NYC) would cause a catastrophe. Fauci says they are already doing deeper data studies for the “safe” areas, and they have a lot of time before Easter (he feels). For example, a state may have low infections, but recently escalating on a steep curve. That’s a no, because of the 14 days with no symptoms. Bet your life that several governors would refuse to open up. New York for sure … leading to months of lawsuits and NO opening.

        Bottom line. Trump has again made a commitment that’s impossible to fulfill, complete opening, and again backed off.

        That is the option you may have missed. Open the economy gradually, in steps. Likely stiffer restrictions in the worst area, to bend the curve downward. Open additional states or areas, as they become safe … a continuing process. Trump himself said one nationwide plan would be wrong.

        NOTE: the administration now advises ANYONE who visited NYC to self-quarantine 14 days … which is the stiffer stance I mentioned. He gets it.

    3. JFree,
      Stuff your PANIC flag up your ass, stick first.

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  2. It is hard to see how a loss of that magnitude can be rationally justified.

    It’s 25 times more deadly than Coronavirus.
    And sure to be far worse than even Ebola (See Gates talk above).

    U.S. cases just doubled in a single day. If our curve continues we’ll have a 4,000-death day by month-end.

    What happens if we hit 10,000 deaths per day? Major stock market crash. Tens of millions afraid to go out — same end as a national lockdown, but far more deaths. Jacob needs to see both sides of this.

    It’s been virtually guaranteed that Trump will screw it up, BUT he backtracked heavily on Tuesday, and CLAIMS to be listening to people who know what they’re talking about. Because this is NOT the Democrat hoax he originally claimed.
    It will not “magically disappear.” And spinning wind turbines do not cause cancer.

    (Dr. Fauci said, with Trump at his side, that PORTIONS of the country could be restored, which is where Trump caved, obviously not New York. Low infection rates in many states, and parts of large states, which are now targeted for deeper study.)

    Fauci seems back in charge, perhaps because Lindsey Graham tore apart Trump’s original claim to open the entire country.

    1. What is your prediction how long we must stay home?

      1. Point is, I don’t know. And even the strictest I know of (England) has REASONS to go out, groceries and health care the most obvious. Fauci “knows” where, but says they’re doing deeper research — so no quirks in the background, This guy is PROFESSIONAL!

        Depends on your location. Safe to say that New York ( city or state) will be the last to open up. NYC has over half the US cases! Look for Cuomo to do what Britain’s PM Johnson did. There are explicit reasons to be outside your home, enforced by the police, broader than I’d have guesses. Violations will get a misdemeanor and fine.

      2. I’d like to take a stab at the question = What is your prediction how long we must stay home?

        The question is an excellent one. Here is my take. The 15-day self-isolation period ends March 30th. I believe that it will be renewed for an additional 15 days, and I think that is the smart move. Why? Because we have several disparate outbreaks in the very early stages where we can dramatically influence the course of events. Specifically, I am speaking of Louisiana (there will be others that crop up this week).

        We have north of 350K observations, and much more is coming online this week (testing data is coming in from 12K private labs and hospitals). Then we can get down to zip code, and this matters a lot. We will also have a much better handle on incidence by zip code.

        My intuition is that by the end of Passover (April 16), the US will start opening up a lot and many of the home bound restrictions will be lifted.

        Bottom Line: Prepare to stay homebound through April 15th.

        1. I described that they’ve already announced that large sections of the county will open before Easter – The safer states and large in-state regions. Yesterday, Fauci described deeper research in those areas, presumably to find any subtle glitches. Assume the state must have low infection AND a low curve, since the overriding goal is to “flatten the curve”

          In hot areas we’ll likely see tighter restrictions. Italy finally reversed their rapid climb (793 deaths in one day) by enforcing shutdowns with police. England BEGAN with a list of permitted activities, with violations a misdemeanor and fine.

          Governors are free to ignore whatever Trump wants to open, which is likely why he’s abandoned a nationwide opening he first announced, along with the insistence of Fauci and others.

        2. That time period has little to do with the virus. That’s all about the governance (that we abdicated except via the couple minutes every few years ‘electing’ them) deciding what we will tolerate. At the margins I suppose its about some people with mild cases recovering and no longer being infectious. But the % of the population that applies to at this point is near irrelevant. Maybe 0.2% of people at max. More likely a lot less than 0.1%. That ain’t a herd immunity that will do shit.

          Assuming your real question is ‘how long do we have to sit around and/or ‘socially adjust’ while other people deal with the actual virus assuming that we want to keep fatalities low’
          Answer is – until there is a vaccine in mass production or until the virus infects the 60% or 70% or 80% of the population that (we hope) creates some herd immunity.

          None of that is remotely part of the public discussion and we have chosen utter passivity in our governance. Where our only civil function is to get pissed (or answer polls re our feelz/opinions). So we will most likely ‘get released’ in 15 or 30 days. And hey presto, the virus will start back up and blow into higher fatality range.

          the bright side of that high fatality range is that this could all be over in about 2 or 3 months. Course that many bodies creates consequences in the aftermath. One of which can get really ugly in the absence of social cohesion going into it. And sure enough – DeRps still don’t even see the thing itself as the same thing. Much less agree on how to approach a solution.

    2. Right! And if we use even a three day doubling time, the entire population of the country will be dead by mid-June!

      See how that doesn’t make any sense?

      1. See how that doesn’t make any sense?

        The FACTS are in-con-veeeeeen-yent, so you sneer at them.

        What makes NO sense is to ignore reality

        the entire population of the country will be dead by mid-June!

        INFECTED, and you don’t understand how it works. Very little of America is yet a “hot spot,” but much of it is headed there.

        New York is so bad that the TRUMP administration now asks EVERYONE who has left New York recently to … self-quarantine … for 14 days.

        No offense intended, but … How many people have asked for your expertise in quantum physics?

        1. No, you said based on our curve, we would have a “4000 death day by month-end.” Now I’m not sure which month you refer to, but I will assume April since March is almost done. Using 100 deaths as a starting point, and three day doubling time you would hit 4k daily deaths (with ~10k cumulative) around day 16 or 17. And again, another couple months and we would all be dead. Obviously the latter case will not hold- why would the former?

          New York has a lot going on, no doubt. I don’t disagree with your point that saying EVERYONE EVERYWHERE should handle things the same way on April 12 (or any date), regardless of their local situation, isn’t the realistic path. I agree that the NYC area in particular will probably be handled differently for a longer time than most anywhere else. But right now we are told to expect that situation to develop everywhere, and I just don’t see any rationale for that. NYC is far and away the most extreme case in the nation in terms of population density, number of domestic and international travelers, etc. They account for almost half the cases and over 2/3 of the deaths in the country (and even at that, a few hundred deaths in a city of ~9 million is nothing). Let’s not pretend that the same scenario is likely to play out across the nation. Big, dense cities? Maybe. Those of us who chose not to live or work in those environments should not be punished for their problems.

          For my part, I am laissez faire to my core. With most things in life, doing nothing is always an option, and usually the best one. Worry about yourself and your loved ones, and let everyone else worry about theirs in the way they see fit. Control freaks and micromanagers are the worst.

          1. Again, it’s the infections (bold in the original) which double every three days in New York.

            For my part, I am laissez faire to my core.

            Not when you invent some right to walk around infecting and killing innocent people .. who will then each infect two others… now four who will infect eight others … etc. etc.

        2. Well, since you have all “the facts” on this new and unknown virus, will you please share them with the powers that be so they can come up with a coordinated plan?

          As far as I’ve been able to tell, the “facts” are unknown at this point. Although there have been many observations presented as “facts”. And, said “facts” are all over the place.

          The one I’m most interested in is immunity. I listened to a virus expert just this morning say that it is NOT clear that there will be immunity beyond the short term for people who’ve had this virus. Much like the other coronavirus’ it stems from. The immunity is usually quite short lived in the former but much longer in the later. Which is why we get colds over and over in our life. But the flu, only when it is a different viral strain.

          Again, it is mostly an unknown. Which means, trying to support arguments with “facts” that are not yet known is a fools errand.

          1. Well, since you have all “the facts” on this new and unknown virus, will you please share them with the powers that be so they can come up with a coordinated plan?

            I GOT the facts from the powers that be.

            Again, it is mostly an unknown. Which means, trying to support arguments with “facts” that are not yet known is a fools errand.

            Umm, the facts are known by the powers that be, which is where I get them.
            Per your own words, those fact are “not yet known” by … you.

  3. When this is over it will be a matter of fact the government’s incoherent reaction to this mess will be the most damaging element. Not just the closures and orders to stay at home, but the absurd political battle over a relief bill (and the grotesque mutilation of that bill for political reasons). This sort of horseshit is how a republic dies.

    1. et tu Brute?

  4. The government screwed this up a long time ago. Certificate of Need laws, the FDA, occupational licensing, etc. all contributed to the slow response much more than anything the government could have done once the crisis was here.

  5. this goverment was screwed up already.. Hope can change the president who can make fast response with any crisis!

  6. There are times you are damned if you do, and damned if you don’t. This is one of them. For Trump, for you, and for me. There is no right answer.

    1. This is one where I’m VERY interested to see the results of how it’s handled state-by-state. And we’ll have the statistics to back it all up within about a year. Do states with a hands off approach come out with a higher death rate, but better economies? Do states that have implemented harsh lock-downs have their economies crushed? Stay-tuned!

  7. Several commenters here have squawked that the bug isn’t as bad as the flu since we often have 100 deaths per day from the flu. Take note, yesterday we had over 200 deaths from the bug. And we have just begun to die.

    As the medical pros have predicted, the virus is starting to overwhelm healthcare capacity. What say you now?

    1. Direct more resources to the hot spots, like NY, where lots of people that traveled in China came through (or back to). If the rest of us would fucking follow the CDC recommendations on hand washing, disinfecting frequently touched surfaces, staying isolated if sick, and staying away from the elderly and other high risk people – we could get much of the economy back in operation.

      1. If the rest of us would fucking follow the CDC recommendations on hand washing,

        Is this something like following speed limits on the highway?

        Understand I’m not saying something is good or bad. Or frankly that I prefer one way or the other. Things just are what they are. People start getting back to normal and the virus will start right back up on its full exponential growth. That is the fact.

        1. China is getting back to work – and their numbers (which I know are suspect) are no longer scary. Guess we’ll see if they regret getting back to work.

          1. They shut down the entire country for about a month. In part to stop the spread – and even more so to transport tens of thousands of medical staff (and presumably ventilators) to Hubei. Hubei is planned to be opening up in early April – so eleven weeks under lockdown. Both of which were magnitudes more intrusive than ours can ever be. In addition, Hubei built eleven hospitals in about a month – and converted pretty much all public facilities into isolation beds.

            They started those lockdowns when they had roughly 400 confirmed cases in Hubei and roughly 100 confirmed elsewhere in China.

            They will certainly have another wave – and most Chinese (probably even in Wuhan) are still not-immune and never-exposed. But it is almost certain that they ‘completed’ the first wave.

            We are not remotely in that situation. Nor is there a chance in hell of what has already happened in China happening here to control it. Here, it really does look more like a decision of whether we are going to have two separate waves or whether we’re just going to kind of smoosh them into one wave whether we like it or not.

            1. And that wave will probably involve their other major metropolises of Shanghai and Beijing. They put everyone on quarantine very quickly in those places to knock down infection, which helped stop the spread but which also means that those people won’t have immunities to the disease so they’re going to be susceptible to the second round of infections.

              And that second wave could be much worse than the first, because their economy is already weakened.

              1. So … protecting people from infection is BAD … because the won’t have immunity from the second round of the virus … because there will STILL be no vaccine …. also bad to protect them from THAT, which would leave them helpless against a third round …. (keep repeating, til hell freezes over)

                …. and we KNOW tens of millions of Americans have a GOD-GIVEN RIGHT to risk death. Because immunity is more important than life itself, as you state so brilliantly! (swoon)

                Translation: If it’s effective … REJECT IT!
                If it’s far more effective than Trump’s month plus of delays, TRUMP is more important than thousands of lives … just ask him!

                Thanks for sharing.

  8. “The CDC’s … implausibly assumes that voluntary measures to curtail the spread of COVID-19, such as avoiding crowds, limiting social interactions, and paying extra attention to hygiene, have no impact on transmission.”

    Curious, isn’t it? Why isn’t the CDC, and others like Bill Gates, telling us the number of cases prevented, and lives to be saved, by implementing these draconian measures? Could it be that nobody really knows whether these measures will be successful? Or is it, As I have read some medical professionals candidly suggest, that the number of cases and deaths will not be reduced at all, and that the purpose of these draconian Restrictions is simply to defer the number of new cases and deaths over a longer period of time to reduce the burden on the health system?

    I wonder if Americans will tolerate having both a devastated GDP and a pile of bodies in the corner.

    1. Medical professionals seem confident that it spreads like the flu – from human contact primarily, and from droplets (from coughing, etc.). Airborne transmission has been mentioned too, but that is likely overstated.

      The op-ed in today’s WSJ by two doctors (professors of medicine) from Stanford is interesting. They suggest that it’s likely that current estimates about the coronavirus fatality rate may be too high by orders of magnitude.

    2. Could it be that nobody really knows whether these measures will be successful? Or is it,

      Funny thing is. Every country on the planet is running this experiment as we speak. And the experiment is moving fast enough so there will be no valid data that we will be able to look back on and learn from and change our behavior much in the first wave. This is merely the proving ground of who does this shit right and who doesn’t. And who can make the first steps towards the massive learning/doing rampup that needs to happen before second wave.

      1. Yup. It’s all test bed, no control group. And I hope we learn some lessons from this quick, because if history is any guide, it’s only a matter of time before the second wave hits as well…and the second waves of pandemics can often be far worse.

        That said, they had some promising news about the vaccine efforts. They’ve looked at the genetic profile for coronavirus and said it’s relatively stable, so a vaccine they develop should maintain a high efficacy for awhile. And the former Kansas governor (a physician) is involved in the hydroxychloroquine testing and said the results so far are very promising.

    3. They’ve been open about it. It’s flattening the curve.

      One can argue it buys time to try and get in front of it. But, if immunity proves to be not the 100% many posters here seem to believe, then we’re all screwed sooner or later.

      Here’s an expert’s explanation of immunity, coronaviruses and variations in mutation that can go either way.

      https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/04/two-scenarios-if-new-coronavirus-isnt-contained/

      We have no control over the mutations. But, we can hope for the best.

  9. Wow, a rare, well-written Reason article giving President Trump credit. Has Hell frozen over?

    1. Yes, Hell froze over for Unreason writers.

    2. Yesterday, they announced (in effect) that individual “safe” states will be opened by Easter (if current research bears out)

      Why isn’t the CDC, and others like Bill Gates, telling us the number of cases prevented, and lives to be saved, by implementing these draconian measures?

      They are, and have been all along — arguing for stricter measures. Gates just BLASTED Trump’s original re-opening as “irresponsible”

      Elsewhere, like Italy, they finally got a downward curve when they made it mandatory, with police enforcement. So impressive that England just BEGAN with a list of legal reasons to be outside the home, with violations a misdemeanor and fine.

      1. Fuck you, Hihn, stay off my threads.

      2. Actually, I’ll retract that…you offered a coherent and valid argument. Thank you for that. As long as you’re doing that and not the standard gibberish, I’m cool with you commenting.

        1. Maybe they adjusted his meds. Seriously.

          1. If so, I’m glad to see it and I hope it sticks.

            And I mean that sincerely.

        2. I’m cool with you commenting.

          Why should I care?
          Why should anyone care?

          This is an open discussion forum. That’s why it says “Reply” at the bottom left. If you simply cannot tolerate that, well …. buh-bye

          You’re the one who threw a raging hissy fit ….

          Fuck you, Hihn, stay off my threads.

          over a comment you then admitted you’d never read! … inventing a power you don’t have

          1. A few of us are saying something even a little bit positive about you. You don’t owe anyone a thank you, but it would be nice if you didn’t shit on it either.

            1. HOW does Shitlord say something “a little bit positive” about someone?

              MUST be his ONLY comment in the thread. duh

              Maybe they adjusted his meds. Seriously.

              SERIOUSLY!
              *smirk*

    3. Trump has since fallen back on a nationwide re-opening. Even says a nationwide, one-size-fits-all policy is wrong, FINALLY listening to the experts,

      He’s helpless to stop governors from doing whatever they want. Many would have simply ignored his original re-opening, which is their job.

      Opening “hot” areas now, like New York, would be catastrophic. New York is so toxic that over half of recent infections have been people who recently LEFT New York. Note that the administration now asks EVERYONE who recently left New York to self-quarantine for 14 days. THAT is a significant reversal also.

      We’ll see loosening in the safer states, and more tightening in the hot states. Look for police enforcement, if needed, which is what it took to reverse the trend in hot spots like Italy.

      1. I agree with your points on the “hot” areas, as well as the likely loosening in safer states.

        1. Thanks, but I just reported what I’m 99% sure are Dr Fauci’s points. His explanation, from the lectern, was simple enough for junior high kids!

      2. He’s helpless to stop governors from doing whatever they want. Many would have simply ignored his original re-opening, which is their job.

        It is, and it’s a valid approach because frankly not every state is going to be facing the same circumstances that New York or Washington is. The governors have to be able to tailor their approach to local conditions.

        But I do think most of them will generally follow the President’s lead, because they understand the same thing he does…you can’t shut down the entire U.S. economy just because some people might die from coronavirus. It will collapse society. We’re already looking at a 2Q unemployment rate of 30% and a 50% drop in GDP because of the shutdowns, and countries collapse under those conditions. And governors, who have to answer to voters too, aren’t going to want to see their states fall apart.

        Even Jay Inslee, who hates the President and is a hardcore partisan, understood this point and has tried to balance the risks with keeping prosperity in his state going. He only put down restrictions when the idiots in Seattle who wouldn’t self-quarantine gave him no other choice.

        1. It is, and it’s a valid approach because frankly not every state is going to be facing the same circumstances that New York or Washington is.

          So we agree that Trump was way out of line, as stated by Dr Fauci and Lindsey Graham, among others,

      3. Opening “hot” areas now, like New York, would be catastrophic. New York is so toxic that over half of recent infections have been people who recently LEFT New York. Note that the administration now asks EVERYONE who recently left New York to self-quarantine for 14 days. THAT is a significant reversal also.

        The problem is that once they realize this virus has broken quarantine from a hot zone, it’s usually when someone gets sick outside that zone, meaning they were spreading it for up to two weeks before they saw a doctor and the virus is already likely established in the new place.

        I don’t think this virus was containable once it got out of China and arguably wasn’t containable in China. Its inherent characteristics defeat basic containment protocols. So the question then becomes about how you deal with the problem once containment is no longer a viable option…which to my mind means focusing all testing and most treatment on the high risk population groups and stressing self-isolation for them as an individual responsibility. And for most of the rest of the population, focusing on a timeline when they can consider themselves sufficiently healthy to get back to work.

        1. which to my mind means focusing all testing and most treatment on the high risk population groups

          Most who say that seem unaware that the under 50s will continue infecting people.

          This morning I read that the original ratios, by age, were from China. We’re running about 40% infections under 50, who are far less likely to die, but far more likely to infect others (lesser or no symptoms)

          Recall that testing is not just to find who’s infected. It’s also to find who should self-quarantine to avoid infecting others … like Ted Cruz and Rand Paul did (Paul too late).

          This is recent, but a growing number of countries are now using law enforcement, A list of legal reasons to leave home, violations are a misdemeanor and a fine. THAT is what reversed the curve in Italy, just after that day with 793 deaths. I saw they had declined 3 days in a row. England only just started restrictions, but BEGAN with legal enforcement of a list. If many others replicate Italy’s success, that could become the norm.

          1. I’m aware that the under 60s (the high-risk groups start at 60, not 50) will continue to be carriers. But there are a lot more of them than there are people in the high-risk groups, and the reality is that the disease is already established, it can’t be contained (in part because it inherently defies containment, and it survives a long time and spreads asymptomatically), and if you try to protect everyone you end up protecting nobody.

            The isolation efforts need to focus on the high-risk individuals while the lower-risk people build up something like a herd immunity. And that immunity is going to be important, because I’m willing to bet that China has another massive outbreak before long…their quarantines were put in place before their population centers got hit, and now that those are being lifted, all it takes is another outbreak to start in Shanghai or Beijing and they’re right back where they were months ago.

            We don’t want that second go-around. We want this to be the only serious iteration and the next outbreaks to be less virulent, and hopefully we end up having a vaccine or effective treatment regimen in place by then.

            1. The isolation efforts need to focus on the high-risk individuals while the lower-risk people build up something like a herd immunity

              Herd immunity requires a high percentage of the POPULACE (not just your subherd) be individually immune,. For COVID-19, the herd immunity threshold ranges 29-74%, which are, of course, estimates,

              The only ways to get individually immune are vaccine or the disease, both over a year away.

              It’s now quite obvious that you’ve abused my trust, my giving you the benefit of doubt, of much doubt. It’s now certain that you’ve been inventing whatever you need at the moment.

              Buh-Bye.

              .

          2. Recall that testing is not just to find who’s infected. It’s also to find who should self-quarantine to avoid infecting others … like Ted Cruz and Rand Paul did (Paul too late).

            The problem is, that ship has sailed. Quarantine has already been blown, and the problem is not with testing people…it’s in getting those tests processed at labs and back to people. The turnaround where I’m at is two weeks. By the time the people getting tested get their results, their bout with the disease for the most part has already passed and the result is worthless to them. Even worse, their result helped bog down the system so that someone who needs a result fast may not be able to get it in time because of the bottleneck at the lab.

        2. I don’t think this virus was containable once it got out of China and arguably wasn’t containable in China

          It’s close now.
          Even Italy has finally reversed its curve from upward to downward, having had more deaths than the much larger China, shortly after a record-setting 723 deaths in a singles day. The success of Italy now sees countries following their tactic … law enforcement … even England

  10. Economic contraction will probably not kill too many people in the United States.

    But if the rich countries stop buying from poor countries (and stop giving them anything), poor people in the poor countries will die.

    1. I think it’ll kill more than you think. Financial ruin is what a lot of people face when they lose their jobs and businesses. Then you’re talking spikes in alcoholism, drug addiction, depression, divorce, suicide…not to mention the time it takes for new businesses to start up to replace the ones that failed, which means a lag in that 30% unemployment rate dropping back down.

      It’s not just a matter of “everyone got a vacation for two weeks and then you get plugged back into your job” on a shutdown of this scale. Real damage gets done to a lot of people, even in wealthy countries, from events like this.

  11. Are we not yet at the stage where reporters start reporting on hospital admissions? That is the metric that counts. Frustratingly, very few articles even delve into their local hospitals. Perhaps that will come, but it would seem like now is a good time to prepare the public with baselines so that we can have a realistic grasp on what hospital stats mean.

    1. Yes, that would be nice to see. Right now we only really have the data points from the two extremes- how many infected (which can mean no symptoms to critical condition) and how many die. Worldometers does have by country data for serious or critical cases, which puts the US at 1175, but that statistic has not always been accurate on that site, to the point where they removed it from the individual US page.

      Because we are told that the real danger here is overwhelming the hospitals- that’s the reason we are supposedly doing all this social distancing nonsense, not to keep people from getting it, but to keep them from getting it NOW. Part of determining how we restore some sense of sanity to the country is real data, from various types of communities in the US, about how overall infection rates translate to hospitalizations. Because if the chicken littles are being honest, they should agree that we should actually be targeting an infection rate for each state/county/community based on symptomatic infection rate, population, demography, hospital capacity, and hospitalization rates. Using the “hospital capacity will result in deaths” theory, we should want this to work through populations as fast as possible, but as slow as necessary- we don’t want zero infections.

      1. Part of determining how we restore some sense of sanity to the country is real data, from various types of communities in the US,

        That data is useless … beyond the professionals who need and use it. You’ve labeled social distance as “nonsense” .. despite none of the data you also say is necessary … for you?

        New York is converting a convention center into a 1,000 bed hospital.
        What’s relevant is that Trump wanted to reopen all of America (thankfully now abandoned, )when everything is already in short supply, and the PACE of new infections is still escalating. US total infections just doubled in a single day.

        Short version: when we already have critical shortages of critical care beds, masks, ventilators, even the protective gear needed by our doctor and nurses … do we need stats to know that INCREASING the rate of new infections would severely worsen what is already a near tragedy?

        1. It is nonsense, because even a virus with a 10% fatality rate isn’t worth taking the actions we are doing, much less this. Whether a thousand people die or a million, it is what it is. That’s life. Not too many generations ago, they dealt with stuff like this every few years at least, and they didn’t cry and hide in their houses like bitches. Why are people so comfortable with being scared and weak? I just don’t get that. It’s a disgrace to human civilization, and all those that went through so much to get us this far, to react like this. The simple fact is the vast majority of us, and vast, vast majority of healthy, productive people, are going to be just fine.

          The data is necessary to try and bring some rational thought into the discussion rather than “SHUT IT ALL DOWN.” I’m sure NYC hospitals are swamped right now. My local hospital? There are probably tumbleweeds rolling down the hallways, because no one is allowed to use it for anything in preparation for a “wave” that will probably never come in our small, relatively rural area. So when our betters say “you need to live like rats until we tell you different” based on a few worst case scenarios around the world, they damn well owe us every stitch of data they have supporting that position, so WE can make our voices heard and tell them when this needs to end. Because in case you have forgotten, the government works for us. Ultimately it is OUR value judgement what is worthwhile and what isn’t, and any data that better informs that judgement is owed to us.

          1. Here, Here!! Yes. I’m in a suburb of a large metropolitan area. If you want me to state indoors while watching my multi-generational family business collapse as all the family-owned businesses I interact with every day also collapse you better have the numbers to back it up. Not just “we think this might happen.”

          2. +100000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000

        2. He’s not entirely wrong or irresponsible for wanting to open America, because he’s look at it from the position of tradeoffs. As he said, America was never designed to be a place that you just shut down the way we have. We do that, there are going to be severe consequences, many far worse than the virus itself. He’s pushing people to reopen the country because while the coronavirus is a problem, societal collapse is a far bigger problem, and that’s potentially what we face with a shutdown economy.

          Authoritarian states can get away with that because they don’t care what happens to their people, we can’t.

          1. He’s been talked out of re-opening America, even now says that was the wrong way to go. It will start with only the safest of states. Other states added as they get their curve flattened or reserved (whatever Fauci’s metrics are).

            Once that becomes the environment, expect to see stricter restrictions, in the worst hot spots, perhaps enforced by police … as the most successful countries are doing — it converted Italy’s worst in the world into a declining curve. England was so impressed that they BEGAN with law enforcement (a list of legal reasons to be away from home, with violations a misdemeanor and fine.)

            1. He was saying differently as of yesterday, and I don’t think he’s going to back off of it. Nor should he.

              The reality is that setting an end date is important because it gives people hope and a target to focus on. Absent that, it’s just a crisis with no end in sight. “Before Easter” gives them a goal to work towards, where they can focus on staying afloat. That is a huge deal with the economy in the toilet, half of GDP gone, and facing a 30% unemployment rate.

              The epidemic is bad. Giving the American people nothing to pin their hopes on in these circumstances is orders of magnitude worse, because it *will* collapse society.

              1. He was saying differently as of yesterday,

                Not at the press conference

                and I don’t think he’s going to back off of it. Nor should he.

                Is that a medical judgment, or a political one?
                He’s already started, not just the rollback to saf states only. The administration now asks EVERYONE who has left New York recently to … self-quarantine for 14 days. That’s a major ramp up of his 15-day plan.
                Do you really believe he’d then release NY from his current guidelines, two weeks later? When, lately, about 40% of all new cases, in the country are from people who’d recently left New York?

                Florida’s governor, Ron Desantis, now requires mandatory 2-week confinement for air passengers from New York. (also from NJ and CT)
                https://www.politico.com/states/new-jersey/story/2020/03/23/florida-demands-quarantine-for-air-passengers-from-new-york-new-jersey-1268762

                It’s over, the nationwide re-opening. Political suicide, when he’s already in so deep.. Nationwide would sharply increase infections and death, from again ignoring his top medical professionals.

      2. It’s not even how many “infected”. It’s how many “confirmed cases”. We know that the former number is larger than the latter, both because this virus results in a lot of people having only mild symptoms (or no symptoms) and because of limits on the number of tests. (And we need to be realistic on the latter point. South Korea leads the world in testing, and cumulatively it has tested only about 350k people through March 25, out of a population of just over 50 million.) https://www.statista.com/statistics/1095848/south-korea-confirmed-and-suspected-coronavirus-cases/

      3. We don’t know how many “infected”. We know how many “confirmed cases”. We know that the former number is larger than the latter, but we don’t know by how much.

        1. We know that it’s 25X more deadly than swine flu, on the most accurate metric. How many people died, after the same number of days for each, from the first death. 100% accurate,

          covid’s first death was less than a month ago, so the most recent published result in 16 days,

          Covid = 75 deaths. Swine flu = 3.

          For the first few months, that could be mostly because covid spreads faster, still a sign that we aren’t doing nearly enough.

    2. Are we not yet at the stage where reporters start reporting on hospital admissions?

      They’re reporting far more relevant info.

      Stats are not newsworthy, and would sail over most Americans heads At the moment, what’s relevant is that hospitals in hot spots are overwhelmed, which tells us why Trump’s original nationwide re-opening has been abandoned. Total US infections doubled … in a single day.

      Hot spots have severe shortages of hospital beds, masks, ventilators, even the protective gear needed by doctors and nurses — which is far more relevant than stats. Re-opening those areas like New York, would sharply increase the RATE of new infections, and be catastrophic.

      NYC is rushing the conversion of a convention center, into a 1,000 bed hospital. For most folks, I’ll suggest that’s far more relevant than admissions — the CONSEQUENCES of too little hospital capacity, especially when the curve is going upward so rapidly.(in hot spots)

      1. Total US infections doubled … in a single day.

        Source? They certainly didn’t yesterday.

        1. Right, Saturday to Sunday they basically doubled, but that is an outlier and I assume had more to do with testing and processing than actual new cases. Saturday was a drop from Friday. The past few days have been a basically linear increase. Now 3-4-5 data points don’t tell us much either way at this point- a big spike today, similar numbers tomorrow, etc. make that linear trend turn exponential pretty quick. But it’s not fair to say that doubling on a day to day basis is the case right now.

          1. They probably didn’t literally double. Considering the incubation period, heightened awareness, increases in testing availability, etc.. it could just be that a bunch of new cases were counted in one day. Which is separate from actual infection numbers. As there are so many asymptomatic infectees. So that jump may be an accounting anomaly. Or not.

            1. They certainly didn’t double. We have maybe a week left of what is merely an increase in detection (in some states – some aren’t yet in that mode). Once we get there, we’ll likely be able to interpolate the case data from early on in Jan/Feb to now – add the relatively known asymptomatic and undetectably mild cases – and have an idea of how fast the epidemic is growing from that estimated line.

              Would have been better to have done this six weeks ago but it is what it is so we are where we are.

            2. Right, I guess I should have said that “identified cases” only doubled vs. infections. And yes, a large amount what we have seen thus far is directly tied to how many tests have been administered and processed, and I’m not completely sure when that period will be over and we are actually seeing rates that correlate to new infections. Although the proportion of tests administered coming back positive might help give an idea as well. Which in WI, has been pretty small- 5.3% positive so far.

            3. New York is doubling every three days. Over two cycles, IIRC, when Governor Cuomo announced it.

              1. I believe that’s NYC that’s doubling, not New York overall, which makes sense because you’re talking a confined geographic region with very little ability to separate the high-risk groups from carriers.

                And it’s important to remember as well, as Under_Pressure noted, that it’s a doubling of *identified cases* not a doubling of actual infections. The infections were already there, they just realized it as they did more widespread testing.

                1. Thanks! By “New York” I meant the city. I should go back to using NYC 🙂

              2. Heavily urban populations with prominent air travel hubs, and sea ports will absolutely experience a much more rapid infection rate than almost all other areas. WA has the same problem in the Seattle area, but not the rest of the state.

                1. But no other such hubs, so not valid.
                  Check LA, which is far more relevant than Seattle.

          2. And the curve is still nearly vertical, which means the “rate of increase” is still expanding. That’s why the first priority is “flattening the curve”

    3. Are we not yet at the stage where reporters start reporting on hospital admissions? That is the metric that counts. Frustratingly, very few articles even delve into their local hospitals.

      I agree 100% with this re data. Even with hospital admissions, there is about an 8 day lag after symptoms start. And then another lag to ICU and then to fatalities. And then another lag to recoveries. Said two lags then freeing space for hospitals. CO is providing reasonable data. Italy is providing excellent data except it’s all in that meatball language.

      Here’s a twitter feed from an ER doctor in NYC day before yesterday – Dr Craig Spencer

      It’s tough for media though. That’s the really depressing side of the story. At a certain point, media is clearly in the way and obstructive. And since we are utterly unprepared, it’s too late to change anything. It’s like showing a train wreck in slow motion over and over and over. Whew that can get ugly and depressing

    4. The media isn’t reporting yet on local hospitals because it would really screw with the narrative. Hospitals are desolate and staff are being laid off due to states make it illegal to perform “elective” surgeries. In a month or two, the hospitals may be overflowing. Right now, some hospitals are close to shutting down.

      1. What state do you live in?

        1. You can look at the JHU sick map and see which counties have 20-30 infections or less and which counties are swamped.

          Most of American medical facilities are not swamped.

          1. Most of American medical facilities are not swamped.

            Has anyone said or implied otherwise?

            Indeed, many of THOSE states are suspending laws, licensing, or whatever, so their doctors and nurses can go help in other states .. which is the biggest news story on this — the lack of staff in the hotspots, Also why Trump has backed away from a “nationwide” re-opening.

          2. Most counties don’t have much more than 1 ICU bed or 1 ventilator. Many none. Rural areas are also older and sicker. So 1 ICU patient = swamped.

            There is not going to be a 50 mile ambulance ride to the nearby city for treatment. Nor are many of the more relevant specialists for this (and many specialists are going to be useless) going to be making their rounds in rural areas for heavily scheduled stuff. There will be no ‘scheduled’ anything in hospitals for a long time.

            And why is it that you conservatives are simply incapable of looking ahead even one week? Do you drive like this too?

        2. What state do you live in?

          My guess is Confusion.

          “Elective surgeries” are cut back in hospitals that are overwhelmed, or close, to focus more staff and resources on CORVID. And it’s hospitals which are deferring electives. Beds are very tight at many. I read one story where patients are on mattresses, on the floor, many in hallways.

    5. They are only collecting the scariest data and are stopping you from getting your own data. At this point I’m thinking it’s on purpose.

      1. This economy is not going to nuke itself!

  12. When the (manufactured) smoke clears, we’re going to find the costs of the (manufactured) ‘crisis’ far out-weighed the costs of the disease.

  13. I am making 10,000 Dollar at home own laptop .Just do work online 4 to 6 hour proparly . so i make my family happy and u can do……..  …..  Read More

  14. Trump is America’s broken clock. Don’t ignore the 1338 minutes a day of Trump being wildly wrong to cheer for the 2 he is almost right.

    And this is not even one of the times that he is almost right.

    Efforts to directly fight the pandemic or to adapt to it if the, as is likely, becomes endemic are cost saving efforts versus letting it crash rampantly across America, maybe in multiple like or worse than the 1918 Flu.

    The real cost, and a completely wasteful and avoidable one, is the idiotic Trumpulus package.

    Now, idiotic efforts

  15. I am so glad Trump is President over Hillary.

    1,000,001 reasons he is better.

    1. Hillary wouldn’t have ignored medical experts for months, only now deferring to them. Actually, no other nationally prominent politician would do such a thing.

      How many months were lost because of
      It’s a Democrat hoax?
      It will magically go away?
      etc.

      When we have a virus which is 25x more deadly than Obama’s swine flu, such delays allow the pace to escalate far more than it should have. More people die, needlessly.

      1. Poor hihn sock troll.

        1. How many months were lost because of
          It’s a Democrat hoax?
          It will magically go away?

          Name another national level politician who would ignore his own experts on a nationwide re-opening … only to later reverse back to them again .. following a meeting that day.

          When we have a virus which is 25x more deadly than Obama’s swine flu, such delays allow the pace to escalate far more than it should have. People die, needlessly.

          Since you were so totally wrong … why does it matter who called you out … even if I am a sock troll?

          1. P.S.
            ATTENTION loveconstitution1789!!!! (beep beep beep)
            TRUMP DID NOT ANNOUNCE HIS 15 DAY LOCKDOWN UNTIL … MARCH 16th …. ONLY TEN FREAKING DAYS AGO! ….

            Have you been following this at all? ANY of it?

            MIGHT that be because he said it was a “Democrat hoax,” and would just go away on its own, MAGICALLY? AND YOU SWALLOWED IT!

            I am so glad Trump is President over Hillary.
            1,000,001 reasons he is better.

            Tell that to those who died so needlessly … and their loved ones …. because of your psychopathic hatred of “lefties.”

            Party over country.
            Over even human life.

  16. The DC Swamp creatures are only concerned with saving their own asses…not yours. This entire farce has been perpetrated by the extreme left and WHO in order to destroy capitalism world wide and stop Trump from being re-elected. The leftist Dems know they cannot win with any of the shithead candidates they have trotted out in public. Take your pick…destruction by fake panic or destruction by a Marxist administration by after the 2020 election. We is doomed in any event.

    1. +1000

      We are NOT doomed otherwise Lefties would not be trying this hard.

      They would simply bide their time like they used to do and use incrementalism to add Socialist policies bit by bit.

      There is an urgency to their desperation. It’s almost as if they know that their power is fading. Not just slowing down but fading.

      Imagine such desperation that you Propagandize hysteria to destroy the largest economy in the World and many Americans take two weeks off and then the economy comes back even stronger than before. Nothing you do works.

    2. Or, destruction by a virus with no political interests.

      1. It’s well proven that lc1789 places party over country, above even human life.
        Proven by his own words.

        https://reason.com/2020/03/25/trump-is-right-to-worry-about-the-cost-of-aggressive-covid-19-control-measures/#comment-8183344

        Sad

  17. Trump is a malignant narcissist. All he cares about his how a declining economy will hurt his reelection chances in the fall.

    1. So you have no real point, or anything useful to add to the discussion.

    2. The ravings of a TDS sufferer who will be bitching their heads off when the Food Rationing starts in the fall if Farmers aren’t able to do their work ~today~.
      It won’t be the people in farm/flyover country that will go hungry if the blanket restrictions aren’t rationalized.
      It will be you ~morons~ in the cities who don’t have a clue about how the rest of the world works that will be City People dealing with Rationing.

      1. WOW! Who knew that farmers farm … in groups of 10 or more?
        THANK YOU!

  18. “they routinely consider not only the number of deaths they might prevent but the cost of doing so”

    On what planet? The standard line is “if it saves one life………….”

    Or, “any life is priceless”.

    That’s how we got the health care mess we’ve ended up with. Believing that costs vs life don’t matter.

    It’s also why people are living longer, but not necessarily better. We’ve extended the length of life, but not the quality.

    No one wants to admit, other than insurance actuaries, that every life has a price.

  19. I feel that the season -probably- controls the severity of this COVID-19 virus and that this warming trend shall only improve conditions for human life in short order (c. 60 days).

    •Speculation: the virus may soon fizzle out with these protective measures under continued application … social distancing, quarantine procedures, voluntary delay of congregation.
    •Basis: warming weather means the virus must bend to circumstances that -may- be contrary to its origin. Bats also hibernate at point where they had to clear Batangas’s own Taal — doubtless resulting in one majorly expensive hangover, since they would had been sleeping for about three months more had Taal not erupted, until Spring begins.

    Its severity may well had been a matter of surprise and chill — the unforseen & Unexpected. China shares being in the Northern hemisphere. Their winter is our winter. The virus appears to had been spawned by eating of migratory bats and contact therewith that emigrated en masse due to loss of their home sheltered in volcanic cone and previously empty lava vents of the Philippines. These bats brought their hard-won transition with them in every biological manner only to be devoured by capital opportunity there in the land of all-out communism b;-)

    Medical science rather hasn’t explained COVID-19 performance in warm weather conditions, except to suggest that warming weather won’t be of any benefit to the virus.

    What were going on at this very moment were the very example of qualitative vigilant response.

    If the $2 trillion can be refunded, partly — if necessary — then I think the article suggests the figures of rational conclusion.

    1. The latest possible epicenter just had a mass of new infections … New Orleans, warm and humid/

  20. Quite true. Not warm-dry– but wet-mushy!

    Wonder why they have to bury bodies in upright cases there, above ground?

  21. 81% said the country should continue social distancing initiatives, including “shelter at home” orders, “despite the impact to the economy.”

    REUTERS: The March 26-27 opinion poll, released Friday, also showed that the public is much more likely to heed the advice of doctors and local government officials than President Donald Trump.

    The president took a hardline approach earlier this month when he urged people to gather only in small groups. Later he appeared to change course, telling reporters that he would like businesses to reopen by Easter, on April 12.

    The poll showed that most Americans do not want that.

    Eighty-one percent said the country should continue social distancing initiatives, including “shelter at home” orders, “despite the impact to the economy.” This includes 89% of Democrats and 70% of Republicans.

    Only 19% said they would like to end social distancing as soon as possible “to get the economy going again,” including 11% of Democrats and 30% of Republicans.

    66% said they would follow the instructions of medical doctors
    64% said they would follow the advice of the CDC,
    51% said they would follow the advice from their state’s governor
    46% would follow healthcare directions from local police.
    ****Only 31% are “very likely” to follow President Trump’s recommendations and advice

    Safe to ignore the raging deniers here, eh? Trump has now boxed himself into a corner, with no way out. He loses WHATEVER he does by Easter. Loses BIGLY

    Safe to ignore the deniers here, eh? The raging Chicken Littles.

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