Budget

Possible Budget Deal Will Add $2 Trillion to the National Debt

If President Donald Trump signs the deal into law, he will have authorized a 22 percent increase in federal discretionary spending during his first term in office.

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It holds true that the only thing pretty much everyone in Congress and the White House can agree on is to spend more money.

The White House and Congress are closing in on a deal to hike spending and postpone a battle over the debt limit until July 2021—eight months after the next presidential election. The agreement includes a paltry $75 billion in budgetary offsets, Bloomberg reports. Though a final deal has not yet been reached, the plan is for Congress to pass the new budget before July 26, when lawmakers will begin a six-week summer recess.

The proposed plan will increase current spending caps by $320 billion over the next two years, with the spending hikes equally split between domestic programs and the military. Depending on the details, the budget could add as much as $2 trillion to the national debt over the next decade, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), a nonpartisan groups that favors balanced budgets.

[Update: Trump announced that a deal had been struck on Monday evening.

While Trump says Republican and Democratic leaders in the House and Senate have agreed to the budget and debt ceiling plan, Rep. Justin Amash (I–Mich.) offered a note of dissent.]

In a statement, the CRFB said the budget deal "may be the worst in history," given the country's current precarious fiscal condition.

"Members of Congress should cancel their summer recess and return to the negotiating table for a better deal. If they don't, those who support this deal should hang their heads in total shame as they bolt town," says Maya MacGuineas, president of the CRFB. "This deal would amount to nothing short of fiscal sabotage."

If President Donald Trump signs the deal into law, he will have authorized a 22 percent increase in federal discretionary spending during his first term in office—having signed a March 2018 budget deal that similarly jacked up both domestic and military spending.

It's apparent at this point that there is virtually no political coalition in Washington, D.C., genuinely interested in reducing spending and bringing the national debt under control. Democrats are largely a lost cause when it comes to fiscal responsibility, while Republicans—with few exceptions—are little better, having abandoned decades of lip service to the benefits of smaller government.

We're not even a decade removed from the moment when every major Republican candidate for president said they would rejecta budget deal that included $1 in tax increases for every $10 in budget cuts. Now, the modus operandi of the GOP is to ignore the threat of what near-record debt levels will do to economic growth in the coming decades. Our Republican president says he doesn't have to worry about the coming debt crisis because he "won't be here" when it happens, and conservative talking heads that once blasted President Barack Obama for soaring levels of national debt now argue, as Rush Limbaugh did last week, that "all this talk about concern for the deficit and the budget has been bogus for as long as it's been around."

The new budget deal reportedly includes a mere $75 billion in budget cuts—only $7.5 billion per year, less than 0.2 percent of all federal spending, and only half of what the White House originally sought.

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that the federal government will spend more than $57 trillion over the next decade. In the context of a $50,000 annual household budget, that means the proposed $75 billion in offsets is roughly equivalent to cutting $75 in personal spending every year and expecting that to let you pay off several maxed out credit cards.

The Republican Study Committee, a coalition that includes most members of the House GOP caucus, has condemned the budget deal as fiscally irresponsible, and the president of the conservative Club for Growth has said the agreement will "propel our country toward bankruptcy and fiscal crisis."

But as Trump has taken over the Republican Party, the influence of those other groups has waned. And with Democrats now controlling the House, any Republican resistance to higher spending will have a blunted effect anyway.

Meanwhile, the national debt will continue to grow even without lawmakers adding to it this month. The CBO presently projects that the federal government will add another $11.6 trillion to the deficit over the next decade. By 2049, the national debt will be more than one and a half times the size of the entire U.S. economy, breaking a record set during World War II. If a recession hits, those numbers could be worse.

And yet the only thing officials in Washington can agree to do is spend more money. May our children forgive us.

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  1. “”And yet the only thing officials in Washington can agree to do is spend more money. “”

    Yep. Party is irrelevant.

    1. Yep. Party is irrelevant.

      That’s because the US political system ensures that people get what they want, good and hard.

  2. If President Donald Trump signs the deal into law, he will have authorized a 22 percent increase in federal discretionary spending during his first term in office.

    Was this before or after Pelosi rejected deal to cut .3 percent of spending?

    1. That was separate, as a TINY offset to yet another irresponsible debt increase, NOT a net spending reduction. And … seriously .. peanuts.

      Did Pelosi cause Trump’s GOP to have already added more 8-year debt than Obama did after 8 years? How did she cause Trump to be the first President to ever increase the deficit by more than 40% in a single year … in a recovery? (Under total Republican control of both houses of Congress and the White House.)

      How does whataboutism justify the worst fiscal President in American history … after Obama handed him the longest recovery ever, for an incoming President?

      1. Obummy’s recovery may have been long, but is was pretty much Bupkis!!!! The worst recession recovery ever!

        1. It was the deepest recession and it was a recovery that continues to this day. President Obama must have been doing something right. Also note that Throughout the Obama Presidency the deficient though high went down each year after the initial spike.

          1. Deepest recession huh? History start in 1979 for ya? 2% growth is doing something right? Largely driven off of energy exploration that obama scuttled on federal lands? Do you even try to do facial analysis before your platitudes? And the deficit didnt go down every year under obama. God you’re ignorant. Likewise the cbo always had the deficit spiking around 2020 due to entitlement growth.

            Congrats on being wrong on literally everything you wrote.

            1. And the deficit didnt go down every year under obama. God you’re ignorant

              That’s your third massive blunder on this page (so far)

              Obama deficits, starting from second worse recession ever,
              2009 -9.8
              2010 -8.7
              2011 -8.4
              2012 -6.7
              2013 -4.1
              2014 -2.8
              2015 -2.4
              2016 -3.2

              Remember TARP was launched under Bush2, which hit Obama.

              Trump deficits higher immediately. Starting from the longest recovery ever, for an incoming President … and the first President to ever increase the deficit over 40% — in a recovery.
              2017 -3.5
              2018 -3.8
              2019 estimate -5.1
              2020 estimate -4.9
              2021 estimate -4.5
              2022 estimate -4.2
              2023 estimate -3.5

              https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/hist01z2-fy2020.xlsx

              Downright shameful Full stop.

              1. “”Remember TARP was launched under Bush2, which hit Obama.””

                In the house, 242 dems voted for it. 18 repub voted for it. 156 repub voted against it.

                1. As proposed by Bush’s Treasury Secretary, Paulson.
                  The House vote was 268-148, so you are spewing again.
                  And it was 47 Republicans who votes for it.
                  http://clerk.house.gov/evs/2008/roll101.xml

                  You just invent whatever you need. Tricky (lol)

              2. Republicans took both houses in 2012, seated in 2013 the deficits decreased. The Dems took the house back in 2018 and now the deficits are expected to increase. Note the trend?

                I’m not arguing the repubs are better than the dems. The deficits, and debt are bipartisan.

                1. LAME. Trump had ALREADY added more 8-year debt than Obama did AFTER 8 years. Obama started with a far worse economy — bit left Trump the longest recovery EVER for an incoming President.

                  Your tribal blathering also ignores Trump’s campaign promise to pay off the debt, entirely, after 8 years

                  You ate tricky, but that’s an gross understatement.

          2. Wait…… so shrinking the deficit from a one time emergency high is an accomplishment?

            I guess it all depends on where you start?

            Haha

            1. Forget it Eistau, it’s Hihntown.

              1. Umm, he or she responded to Moderation4eve. Trace the thread properly. Or … learn what the issue is, and THINK who is on each side!!

                P.S. Where is Hihntown? Is it in the US. Which state?

        2. Obummy’s recovery may have been long, but is was pretty much Bupkis!!!! The worst recession recovery ever!

          WRONG The Great Depression was MUCH worse. Google it.

          How does that justify Trump doing FAR worse on debt? THAT is the worst ever .. truthfully … in a recovery!

      2. Fuck off and die, hihn

        1. My name’s NOT Hihn … and you CANNOT shout down the truth.

          1. Well, you spent a lot of time impersonating Michael Hihn, until you were finally banned and thread scrubbed because of your enemies list on that website where you impersonate Hihn.

            Don’t bother to deny anything, your writing style is too distinctive.

            1. Jesus Christ, Hihn again, huh? To an outsider you seem like paranoid assholes at worst, and like little school-girls who have latched onto a lame insult at best. And after following Reason for a few months it’s apparent that you really only have about 5 different things to say, none of them interesting, and they’re the same variation of: “My head hurts…derp fuck slaver derp…you Hihn?” Can you please go away and get some real friends?

              1. There’s an obvious pattern. It’s when they’ve lost on the issue. and/or the facts. So, they “shoot the messenger” aka an ad hominem fallacy.

            2. “”your writing style is too distinctive.”‘

              As well as the level of arrogance.

              1. Pot. Kettle Black!

                As well as the level of arrogance

                Thanks for proving my point!!

                Your ilk says it’s “arrogance,” when you’ve been proven wrong, by official government data, WITH a link to the source! … that Trump and his party are MUCH worse on deficits than Obama.. even though Obama started from the second worst recession in over 80 years … but handed Trump the longest recovery EVER for an incoming President.

                What’s next? Your exalted ruler ordering me to leave the country?

                Hissy fits versus factual data!

                1. That’s exactly what Hihn would say.

                  Thanks for proving my point.

                  1. You’re actually gloating that Hihn and Nolan post facts and link to the source, gloating that you’re a bullshitter!!!

                    Nolan had been kicking your ass all down the page. You should reconsider how you stalk and attack. Cuz you suck at it!

  3. You will not get any change until at least, the voters think the debt is a problem. When the public buys that reductions on spending increases are vicious cuts and are looking for more largess, the Congress will not be anxious to do anything.

  4. Libertarian moment.

    1. Tinkerbell.

    2. If this is how much it costs to own the libs, then that is what we have to do.

      1. A massive failure???

  5. It holds true that the only thing pretty much everyone in Congress and the White House can agree on is to spend more money.

    OK, Mr. Know-it-all Boehm: you’re president. Congress sends you this budget. What do you do and why? Justify and analyze the political and economic consequences.

    1. Political consequences are irrelevant, unless you think that decisions should be made based on how they benefit the political party of your choice.

      Economic consequences are simple enough – repeatedly adding trillions of dollars to the debt will eventually bankrupt this country, and therefore should NOT BE DONE.

      Now, how about you justify your ignorance on this issue?

      1. Trump’s GOP has already added more 8-year debt than Obama
        added AFTER 8 years. (CBO forecast for 2024) Plus the first administration to EVER increase the deficit by over 40% in a single year … in a recovery!

        Even worse … Obama;s debt was after inheriting the second worst recession since the 1930s Trump inherited the longest recovery EVER for an incoming President … from Obama.

        Adding to Trump’s fiscal destruction of America, his campaign promise was to pay off the federal debt … entirely … in 8 years.
        At least Trump is not a Kenyan Muslim like Obama! Praise the Lord.

        1. Why do you keep posting repeated lies? Or are you magically assuming a foreknowledge of all deficits and crediting all future spending to trump?

          1. At least hihn admits that Trump will be in office for 8 hears.

            1. Liar. Every time you lose on the facts.
              What’s with your ilk and hihn???

          2. Or are you magically assuming a foreknowledge of all deficits and crediting all future spending to trump?

            Already answered. Read it again..

            CBO forecast for 2024

            That would be page 7 at this link.

            Why do you keep posting repeated lies?

            You also screwed up further down this same thread. Did you make third booboo here?

            1. If you’re not hihn you have the same mental disorder.

              1. PROOF is a mental is order!!!
                Childish insults are SANITY.
                (But only if punishing the FACTS about Trump and GOP failure on decists and debt … WORSE than even Obamja … worst EVER)
                So I’ll repeat it (lol)

                Trump’s GOP has already added more 8-year debt than Obama added AFTER 8 years. (CBO forecast for 2024) Plus the first administration to EVER increase the deficit by over 40% in a single year … in a recovery!

                Even worse … Obama;s debt was after inheriting the second worst recession since the 1930s Trump inherited the longest recovery EVER for an incoming President … from Obama.

                Adding to Trump’s fiscal destruction of America, his campaign promise was to pay off the federal debt … entirely … in 8 years.
                At least Trump is not a Kenyan Muslim like Obama! Praise the Lord.

                1. That’s exactly what Hihn would say! And how he would say it.

                  1. So, this Hihn dude posts actual proof, and YOU say he’s the only one doing so. You finally got something right!!!

                  2. It’s almost too creepy….

                    I was under the impression Hihn was banned from these pages.

                    Guess not.

      2. That is very simplistic. Political and economic consequences can be related, and usually are. If Trump were to veto every spending bill that didn’t satisfy your or Boehm’s desires, it’s likely that we’d have a huge and long government shutdown of some services (since entitlements are increasing and are on autopilot so couldn’t be cut) and the voters would sweep the Democrats into office in record numbers. Then we’d have spending increases that would make these look tiny. Is that Trump’s strategy? Doubtful, but the answer to this debt problem is not as simple as you suggest. But at least you had a suggestion. Boehm sat in the cheap seats and threw tomatoes with no alternative ideas.

        1. How long do you think the Government will be shutdown when we default on our loans and our inflation hits the stratosphere?

          You cannot constantly borrow more, and more, and more money. Eventually the loans get collected – or defaulted.

          It’s almost like certain people with certain political affiliations have never paid any attention whatsoever to history.

          1. Ok.
            Cite your historical reference.

            1. Bless your heart for being such an idiot.

              You’re right of course. No country has ever defaulted on its debt, so it would be foolish (even for you) to google it.

          2. “Eventually the loans get collected – or defaulted.”

            If the national debt is money we owe to ourselves, who is going to collect them? Is it even possible to default on ourselves? Not being snarky, it really is a paradox that I don’t understand.

            1. How much federal debt is owned by the working and middle classes?

        2. The late Ross Perot presented an alternative plan:
          When you’re in the hole, stop digging.

    2. Veto.
      Anything else?

      Debt is a tax burden on our children and grandchildren … which they have no vote on. Consent of the governed?

      1. Does hihntard know what veto proof majorities are?

        1. A 2/3 majority in both houses., Can you read a thread? This is the question I answered.

          It holds true that the only thing pretty much everyone in Congress and the White House can agree on is to spend more money.

          OK, Mr. Know-it-all Boehm: you’re president. Congress sends you this budget. What do you do and why? Justify and analyze the political and economic consequences.

          So you say the President can stop increased spending because of a … veto proof majority! … which would keep him from stopping increased spending … which means you and JW both got it backwards.

          hihntard

          You also screwed up Trump’ 8-year debt, in this same thread!!!

  6. The spending is constitutionally given to the house of representatives.
    Go tell Pelosi your little problems.

    1. The House and Senate spending bills must agrees, and the umpire is the President’s veto. Or … simply follow how this atrocity progressed. The negotiations, as driven by the GOP.

      1. What a bunch of bullshit!

        Negotiations cannot be controlled by the GOP because all spending bills are required to originate in the House, per the U.S. Constitution.

        Who currently controls the House, ass clown?

  7. For shame! Talking about the budget deficit without mentioning the fact that Trump’s tax cuts, which only cut taxes for the rich and raised taxes on everybody else btw, caused federal revenues to crater. Or so I’ve been told. Most recently, about an hour ago on NPR. By a Washington reporter. Who just matter-of-factly reported that this “budget crisis” was on the Republicans since they were the ones who voted for Trump’s tax cuts and caused this drastic drop in revenue.

      1. Ah, the same old stale crap peddled by the fiscally irresponsible. Tax collections rose, huh? Guess what : Tax collections always rise. Look at the last fifty years and revenue rose all but four times. It rises after tax cuts and tax hikes. It rises during economic booms and during recessions. The ONLY time it doesn’t rise is after a major economic shock, and then it just resets lower before beginning to climb again. My God, is it really possible you don’t know that ?!?

        Trump is putting trillions of added debt on the nation’s credit card to buy a tiny bit of extra juice in an already strong economy. He’s doing this solely to buy a few percentage points on his abysmal popularity rating. And you defend him by saying water is wet. Any idea how dumb that is?

        Because guess what : The economy expands and tax collections rise, but so do costs – just as rigorously and unrelenting. Costs rise even when the scope of government services is unchanged. Costs rise even after reducing the scope of government – just as revenues rise even after reducing taxes. Limit the rise of revenue with tax cuts and tax collections grow slower than expanding costs. The deficit then rises. I’m trying to make this clear because I feel like I’m explaining things to a child.

        Look at these comments and you see a lot of Right-Wing / Libertarian posturing bullshit : “The deficit is bad – But I like my tax cuts – So I’m gonna say a few pious remarks about spending (and then party-hearty on …. besides both-sides, etc etc)” Yet we’ve seen what it took to get the deficit under control with GHW Bush & Clinton :

        (1) Larger taxes on the wealthy
        (2) But tax increases on the middle class as well
        (3) Rigorious structural spending restraint, like pay-go
        (4) Tough choices, not pious bullshit.

        I bet we don’t see much posturing for THAT…..

    1. NPR is just a part of the trash-Trump brigade. You should stop listening to their news and analysis. Read magazines instead.

    2. I’m not rich and I got a tax cut. I’m happy about it. And I don’t resent the people who pay most of the bills for our bloated government to care about their tax cuts.

      See, resentment is your problem. Sad.

  8. No Republicans will ever be allowed to claim fiscal conservatism after this. Not that they ever could except some of their base believed it. So Donny is now a full fledged Democrat? Or is one of the 20 candidates going to make a speech on the senate floor like Obama did in 2006 saying how bad it was to raise the debt ceiling blah blah blah. 180 degrees later he was singing the praises of debt and deficit spending. So is Trump now basically Obama? Yes Virginia there is a Santa Claus and he has orange hair and speaks in incomplete sentences.

    1. The Republicans who voted against this can.

      The RINOs that work with democrats cannot.

      1. TRUMP IS A RINO? WHO KNEW?

        1. Gosh, I guess you did Hihnfaggot.

          1. Gosh, I guess you did Hihnfaggot.

            Typical

  9. Any kind of one party rule will likely result in increased spending. History suggests that a Democrat President with a Republican Congress provides the lowest spending. Not a perfect solution, just the most likely to hold spending in check. Something to keep in mind when you go to the ballot box.

    1. I’m for trying the Libertarian president experiment. Veto everything, as the late Harry Browne campaigned on.

      1. How many votes did Browne get? Libertarianism does not require being such a dumbass. There have been several much better alternatives. But they require a thinking mind.

  10. I don’t think we will reign in debt until the news media barons decide we need to reign in debt. Until that happens any attempt to restrain spending will have little old grannies on the 6 o’clock news saying how they are now starving because of the cuts. It’s too bad, but we need to acknowledge that much policy is made by the news media. Trump would appear to be an exception but in fact he’s part of the proof. The media was all gaga for him up to the nomination, thinking he would be the easiest Republican to beat. Unfortunately (for them) the momentum took him into the Presidency, and they’ve been furious about it ever since.

    1. I don’t think that’s what will happen. The media barons will never decide that we need to restrain debt. And even if they did voters would rather opt for massive inflation. That benefits spenders at the expense of savers.

  11. I guess it’s hard to blame them for doing exactly what their constituents want them to do.

  12. “President Trump … will have authorized a 22 percent jump in federal discretionary spending during his term.” Mr. Boehm, don’t get fooled by terminology used by bureaucrats. The numbers referenced don’t include Social Security, Medicare or Medicaid. Those are not contractual obligations, so are also discretionary. Including those means that Trump “authorized” less than a 10% increase. Not a pretty picture, but a lot less than you cite. And why focus only on Trump? All he does is sign bills from Congress, with no chance for a line item veto.

    1. A line-item veto is unconstitutional, you dumb fuck.

  13. Yeah, but it’s a dry debt.

    1. we need a “debt index” so we know how screwed we really are.

  14. Yup. Antichoice, prohibitionist looters, them Red Republicans…

  15. “the budget could add as much as $2 trillion to the national debt over the next decade” — Lets see that’s $200B a year. Seems pretty non-significant in comparison to Obama passing the AARA adding $900B in a single month.

    1. yeah whats another $2T on top of the few trillion short we’re already gonna be

      go big or go home!

      1. It is ridiculous; but I find it utterly ironic how democrats can make such a big deal (so much news) out of the minor deficit Trump is doing yet utterly ignore the outrageous spending Obama and the democrats already did. Talk about pushing the buck! 🙂

      2. another 2 trillion? just think if interest rates go up.

        At 2%, annual interest payments on 24 trillion USD are “only” 480 billion dollars.

        At 3% it goes up to 720 billion dollars — that’s a man-sized spending program right there (sorry for the phrasing Berkeley).

        At 4% they’re spending 960 billion a year on interest alone.

    2. Yeah, TARP was a “one-time” emergency spending hike of 800 billion. Which immediately became part of the new baseline annual spending for both Dem and Repub presidents.

  16. the president reportedly suggested the US could simply print more money to pay off the debt.

    “Let them eat cake.”

  17. Funny how the “budget deal” always ends up increasing the debt “ceiling”. The issue always seems to be how much to raise it, never when it will be reduced.

    1. This all goes away quickly if we force the progressives out.

      1. TRUMP IS A PROGRESSIVE?
        BUSH IS A PROGRESSIVE?

  18. “But as Trump has taken over the Republican Party, the influence of those other groups has waned.”

    When did “those other groups” EVER have influence…?

  19. […] The White House and Congress are closing in on a deal to hike spending and postpone a battle over the debt limit until July 2021—eight months after the next presidential election. The agreement includes $75 billion in budgetary offsets, Bloomberg reports. Though a final deal has not yet been reached, the plan is for Congress to pass the new budget before July 26, when lawmakers will begin a six-week summer recess. […]

  20. […] The White House and Congress are closing in on a deal to hike spending and postpone a battle over the debt limit until July 2021—eight months after the next presidential election. The agreement includes $75 billion in budgetary offsets, Bloomberg reports. Though a final deal has not yet been reached, the plan is for Congress to pass the new budget before July 26, when lawmakers will begin a six-week summer recess. […]

  21. […] The White House and Congress are closing in on a deal to hike spending and postpone a battle over the debt limit until July 2021—eight months after the next presidential election. The agreement includes $75 billion in budgetary offsets, Bloomberg reports. Though a final deal has not yet been reached, the plan is for Congress to pass the new budget before July 26, when lawmakers will begin a six-week summer recess. […]

  22. […] A Casa Branca e o Congresso estão fechando um acordo para aumentar os gastos e adiar uma batalha sobre o limite da dívida até julho de 2021– oito meses após a próxima eleição presidencial. O acordo inclui US $ 75 bilhões em compensações orçamentárias, Bloomberg relatórios. Embora um acordo final ainda não tenha sido alcançado, o plano é que o Congresso aprove o novo orçamento antes de 26 de julho, quando os legisladores começará um recesso de verão de seis semanas. […]

  23. […] Reason – Budget Deal Will Add $2 Trillion to National Debt […]

  24. […] budget deal that would again hike spending and lift budget caps. Congress is set to vote on the $320 billion spending increase—one that will add $1.7 trillion to the national debt over the next decade—sometime next week. […]

  25. […] budget deal that would again hike spending and lift budget caps. Congress is set to vote on the $320 billion spending increase—one that will add $1.7 trillion to the national debt over the next decade—sometime next week. […]

  26. […] The White House and Congress are closing in on a deal to hike spending and postpone a battle over the debt limit until July 2021—eight months after the next presidential election. The agreement includes $75 billion in budgetary offsets, Bloomberg reports. Though a final deal has not yet been reached, the plan is for Congress to pass the new budget before July 26, when lawmakers will begin a six-week summer recess. […]

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