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WV v. EPA: Some Answers about Major Questions (But Not All the Answers We Need)
My forthcoming article the good, the bad, and the likely implications of the Supreme Court's decision West Virginia v. EPA
In West Virginia v. Environmental Protection Agency, the Supreme Court correctly concluded that the Obama Administration and U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit embraced an overbroad understanding of the EPA's authority under Section 7411 of the Clean Air Act. The way the Court reached that conclusion left something to be desired, however. As I discuss in my forthcoming analysis of the case for the Cato Supreme Court Review, the Court front-loaded its consideration of the major questions doctrine and failed to fully engage with the relevant statutory provisions. It also missed an opportunity to refocus the major questions doctrine on what really matters in cases like this: What power did Congress delegate to the agency.
A draft of West Virginia v. EPA: Some Answers about Major Questions, is up on SSRN. Here is the abstract:
In West Virginia v. Environmental Protection Agency (WV v. EPA) the Supreme Court rejected an expansive reading of Section 7411 of the Clean Air Act. Expressly invoking the "major questions doctrine" for the first time in a majority opinion, the Court concluded Section 7411 of does not allow the EPA to require generation shifting to reduce greenhouse emissions. This decision rested on the longstanding and fundamental constitutional principle that agencies only have that regulatory authority Congress delegated to them. The Court further bolstered the argument that delegations of broad regulatory authority should not be lightly presumed, but also left substantial questions about the major questions doctrine unanswered. By skimping on statutory analysis and front-loading consideration of whether a case presents a major question, the also Court failed to provide much guidance for lower courts. While WV v. EPA represents a missed opportunity to clarify and ground the major questions doctrine, it remains a tremendously important decision, and will be cited routinely in legal challenges to new regulatory initiatives. While limiting the scope of Section 7411, the decision did not curtail the EPA's traditional air pollution control authorities, nor does it preclude the EPA from using such authorities to regulate GHGs. It does, however, make it more challenging for the EPA or other agencies to develop new climate change policies relying upon preexisting statutory authority directed at other problems.
I also blogged fairly extensively on the case. Some of the points I made in my posts made it into the article above, but some did not. Here are links to my various posts on WV v. EPA:
- Could the Supreme Court Revive the Trump Administration's ACE Rule? - Oct. 7, 2021
- Supreme Court Agrees to Hear Case Challenging EPA Authority to Regulate Greenhouse Gases (Updated) - Oct. 29, 2021
- Why the Supreme Court's Decision in NFIB v. OSHA May Be Even Worse News for Climate Regulation than You Thought - Jan. 24, 2022
- Does the Supreme Court Have Jurisdiction to Hear West Virginia v. EPA? - Feb. 2, 2022
- Standing in West Virginia v. EPA Revisited - Feb. 21, 2022
- Climate Change Returns to the Supreme Court: Previewing West Virginia v. EPA (Updated) - Feb. 23, 2022
- "Supreme Court Digs into Statutory Details More than Standing or Nondelegation in West Virginia v. EPA." - Feb. 28, 2022
- EPA Pushes Back Power Plant Greenhouse Gas Regulations While Awaiting Supreme Court Ruling - June 22, 2022
- Supreme Court Rejects Broad EPA Authority to Regulate Greenhouse Gases from Power Plants (Updated) - June 30, 2022
- Justice Kagan Throws Down the Gauntlet: We Are Not "All Textualists Now" - July 1, 2022
- Does West Virginia v. EPA Doom the SEC's Climate Disclosure Rule? (Updated) - July 13, 2022
I also recommend Tom Merrill's series of posts about the case. I do not agree with him in every particular, but his posts are quite worthwhile, and we seem to reach the same general bottom line. As he argues in his final post, the real question in cases like WV v. EPA is whether Congress actually delegated the power asserted by the agency, and that is a question courts must answer--and should answer without taking the sort of major-question-shortcut the Court took in WV v. EPA. Tom makes the case for this approach in his new book on Chevron, The Chevron Doctrine: Its Rise and Fall, and the Future of the Administrative State. I make a more rudimentary argument for this sort of approach in my recent book chapter, A "Step Zero" for Delegations.
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Please read, Article I Section 1. All executive regulation is void unless approved by Congress. Let the executive write regs on technical subjects. But, they must be approved by Congress. Let Congress be held accountable for the 90% that are quackery, not safe, not effective.
Is co2 the current primary driver of the warming since the end of the little ice age ?
I would prefer to get a better understanding of the science.
See figure 1.6 - just one of the many examples which raise legitimate scientific questions - unfortunately dismissed because it doesnt fit the narrative.
https://judithcurry.com/2022/07/31/the-sun-climate-effect-the-winter-gatekeeper-hypothesis-i-the-search-for-a-solar-signal%ef%bf%bc/
I look at AGW as a fraud from several perspectives.
One, the constant failed predictions. Polar bears will be extinct 20 years ago, polar ice cap and all glaciers will be gone 10 years ago, no one will know what snow is, the world has ended ten years from now many many times. None of these failures are acknowledged, they are just recycled over and over again.
Two, the fraud, starting with Mann's hockey stick, data ruined by a water leak, deleted emails, outright lies in peer-reviewed articles, cherry picked data, poorly-sited weather stations providing unreliable data, lies about CO2 being a pollutant instead of plant food which has increased food production and shrunk the Sahara. People who have truth on their side don't need to commit fraud at all, let alone on such a consistent and massive scale.
Three, the reality of warmer temperatures in the past, and more CO2 in the past, without having gone over the mythical tipping point to a runaway Venus-style atmosphere.
Even the most basic scientific question of how much greenhouse gases actually warm the atmosphere, is not settled. Trying to use that to predict the climate in 2100 is ridiculous. Trying to claim the science is settled shows a complete lack of understanding what science is. If it's settled, it ain't science; if it's science, it ain't settled.
Its pretty hard for CO2 to be the primary driver of climate, in fact probably physically impossible.
The reason is that there is no mechanism for long wave radiation emitted by CO2 to warm the oceans. Longwave radiation won't penetrate water, hit hits the surface and is all absorbed by the within microns of the surface, not millimeters, microns, so any water molecules at the surface that absorb longwave IR immediately evaporate. Indeed all the data shows the very top layer of water is cooler than the water below because of evaporation.
Where water gets its heat is from shortwave solar radiation which does penetrate water and can be absorbed by water molecules to a.depth of a hundred meters or more.
So the only mechanisms for heat exchange from CO2 to the oceans is either CO2 emissions warming water vapor and air in the atmosphere, or warm air Intermixing with surface water. Neither of those are plausible sources for any significant heat exchange, both in terms of volume, and also because of evaporation at the surface.
Wow, I can't believe you took the time to type up something so totally inane! I'm going to keep a copy of this post as a perfect example of pseudoscientific nonsense. The Jabberwocky of climate denial.
Joe_dallas, you and I and Alphabet don't really have the wherewithal to answer this question with any kind of certainty.
So we generally ask experts.
You cited a blog of a heterodox expert who you appear to have adopted as your opinion. Which is something of a pattern for you.
Alphabet just waives his hands and dives into some fallacies
-Post hoc ergo propter hoc
-Cherry picking anecdotes
-Ignorance of the state of the science, which has addressed both his issues.
Of course, he calls it a hoax, which is a clue he's not really here to interrogate expert opinions, but rather to pretend he's the expert. On accounta all the bad faith he's certain of, donchaknow.
That's some brave talk there, throwing a bunch of insults and refusing to answer any of the fraud problems?
Go ahead: tell me how Mann so conveniently lost his data accidentally deleted emails, or about all the lawsuits he drags out with frivolous excuses.
Explain how he disappeared the Roman and Medieval Warming periods from his hockey stick graph.
Explain all the temperature plots showing warming only because the five years prior were left off.
There's tons of fraud you could address, Instead you throw insults.
How progressive of you.
TONS OF FRAUD.
Truly, you are an incredible forensic analyst. Just really showing your chops with your rant about...::checks notes:: one guy. And shitty lawsuits that showed nothing.
Or maybe you're an overdramatic ninny who finds comfort in deciding those things he doesn't like are a massive conspiracy.
Oh, you recognize one name (Mann) yet don't respond to any of the fraud allegations. You also ignore all the others.
Tell me, what kind of expert are you to tell me I'm no expert?
And how much of an expert do you have to be to recognize Mann's Hockey stick graph leaves out important warming and cooling periods? Of course, you don't respond to those fraud allegations, apparently because you are enough of an expert to tell me that I am no expert, yet not expert enough (I guess you are humble) to respond to allegations of Mann's fraud.
You are a charlatan.
Dude, you call the entire enterprise of climate science a fraud, and then when called on it focus down immediately.
You're not speaking from anything reality-based.
I am not going to respond to Mann's HS, though the primary issue with the proxies continues throughout the paleo reconstructions. The proxies used in the paleo reconstructions fall into two buckets, the short proxies (300 years or less ) and the long proxies (1k-2k through the present day) . The short proxies generally fit the blade reasonably well which is generally reasonably consistent with the instrumental record. The long proxies represent the shaft, The shortcoming of the long proxies are the general sparseness, the ex post selection screening, the failure of the long proxies to have a blade and the numerous long proxies that conflict with known events ( events in proximity with that proxy) . In summary, its not whether the conclusions are right or wrong, its a case where the underlying data doesnt support the conclusion or the resolution of the data is insufficient to reach a conclusion. similar to measuring length within precision of MM using a yardstick
There are a lot of heterodox experts in all fields, in fact that's how science progresses.
Judith Curry is former chair of the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at the Georgia Institute of Technology.
From a 2010 article in Nature, tell me if you can find anything in this she says that you disagree with:
"For most of her career, Curry, who heads the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at the Georgia Institute of Technology, has been known for her work on hurricanes, Arctic ice dynamics and other climate-related topics. But over the past year or so she has become better known for something that annoys, even infuriates, many of her scientific colleagues. Curry has been engaging actively with the climate change skeptic community, largely by participating on outsider blogs such as Climate Audit, the Air Vent and the Black¬board. Along the way, she has come to question how climatologists react to those who question the science, no matter how well established it is. Although many of the skeptics recycle critiques that have long since been disproved, others, she believes, bring up valid points—and by lumping the good with the bad, climate researchers not only miss out on a chance to improve their science, they come across to the public as haughty. "Yes, there's a lot of crankology out there," Curry says. "But not all of it is. If only 1 percent of it or 10 percent of what the skeptics say is right, that is time well spent because we have just been too encumbered by groupthink."
Of course Groupthink is the avowed goal of Climate Science, so there is that.
Your solution this groupthink you discovered is to throw your lot behind a single expert you have selected. Great job evaluating her work and deciding she's the one that has it right.
You are more cloaking your priors in science than actually engaging with the material. Which, again, you will have trouble doing with any certainty.
Are scientists guessing? Yes. But so are you and I, and scientists are more likely than you and I to get it right.
Almost like you don't care about right and wrong, just rationalizing your previous stuff.
Look, Sarcastro, I've followed climate science closely since about 2005 when Climate Audit exposed Micheal Mann (by exposed I mean shpwing whatever Mann may know about climate, he knows little about statistics), I'd never taken notice of Judith Curry until about 2014.
Really in in terms of Scientists I follow, Dr. Roy Spencer and John Cristy of NASA I pay a lot more attention to:
This is from Roy Spencer's Wikipedia page:
After receiving his Ph.D. in 1982, Spencer worked for two years as a research scientist in the Space Science and Engineering Center at the University of Wisconsin–Madison.[3] He then joined NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center as a visiting scientist in 1984,[4] where he later became senior scientist for climate studies. After leaving NASA in 2001, Spencer has been a principal research scientist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH). As well as his position at UAH, Spencer is currently the U.S. Science Team leader for the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) on NASA's Aqua satellite, a position he has held since 1994.[3]
Spencer's research work is funded by NASA, NOAA, DOE, and the DOT."
Spencer and Cristy are responsible for the UAH temperature dataset, which uses satellite data to monitor the earth's temperature, so it isn't contaminated by land use changes an urban heat island anomalies like HadCrut and GISS are.
You can't coverup all the fraud in this field. Go to that failed predictions page I linked to -- lots more fraud and lies there for you to peruse. But you won't, because the only experts you recognize are the frauds, and they won't debunk themselves, so you need look no further for other experts, because there are none.
Failed predictions to fraud and lies.
Once again, you've left anything regarding science long behind and are just articulating your spite into words, actuality bedamned.
Fraud. Sheesh.
Sarcastr0
August.3.2022 at 6:10 pm
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Joe_dallas, you and I and Alphabet don't really have the wherewithal to answer this question with any kind of certainty."
Sarcastro - In your case, that is absolutely true. On the other hand, I have sufficient mathematical skills, basic science background, critical analytical skills to catch some errors. the most prominent was the bell mcdermott study of 96 us cities and premature mortality due to increases in ground level ozone which reached a conclusion of a higher mortality rate due to ground level ozone than supported by the raw data. That study being considered the gold standard for that type of study.
Same with numerous covid studies promoted by the CDC which I pointed out errors and/or misrepresentations of the experts , such as the kansas mask mandate v non mask mandate study, the Kentucky vax reinfection rate study, the AZ school mask effectiveness study. almost all my comments regarding covid that have been contrary to the experts have proven to be correct, especially my comments on the long term effectiveness of vax and masking.
Don Nico is probably the only other commentator on this blog that has exhibited any of skills necessary to evaluate the reasonableness of scientific studies.
I find many of the same/similar issues in the paleo reconstructions. So while I am not an expert, I have sufficient analytical skills to understand if the underlying raw data (proxies) support the conclusions.
It sounds like your main point is that science is largely wrong. That's certainly true. I'd say it's all somewhat wrong and most of it is mostly wrong.
But it doesn't follow that we should just ignore science. The point of science isn't to be right, it's to be less and less wrong as time goes on.
So... what point are you trying to make by pointing out past errors? Hopefully nobody here is mistaking science for religion.
Randall - I am not saying the "climate science " is wrong, though some aspects are highly over hyped and/or wrong, the paleo reconstructions being a good example. What I have said is the resolution of the underlying data is often far too low to support the conclusions reached. I hope people grasp the distinction.
There is no question the earth is experiencing a warming trend since the end of the LIA, the question is what is driving the warming. There is little scientific dispute that the increasing co2 is a contributing factor in the warming. The question is how much an effect. Is co2 the primary driver of the warming, or just a minor player in the warming. My point is that the resolution of the data is too low to reach a conclusion. Like measuring to the precision of mm using an unmarked yard stick.
You keep using words like "conclusion." That makes me think you don't really understand how science works or, more likely, you're just setting up strawmen in order to create doubt for partisan reasons.
For example: are we 100% sure that CO2 is the driving factor? No, but we're 99% sure, and that's good enough to motivate policy decisions. Quibbling over the 1% just makes you a propagandist.
Randal - you miss the point entirely. The resolution of the data is insufficient to reach a conclusion of how much of the warming is being caused co2 with any precision much less with the precision of 99% vs 100%. There are far too many unknowns. The ones claiming they can quantify with such precision are the ones that are the true science deniers.
No, you're missing the point. It's not about precision, it's about confidence.
You keep wanting conclusions. We won't know how the movie ends until it's over. What we have are best guesses.
This shouldn't be hard for you to understand, it's how weather forecasting always works. There's a 70% chance of rain tomorrow. It's a guess, not a conclusion. But you'd be an idiot to just ignore it for being insufficiently "precise."
Randal
August.5.2022 at 11:21 am
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No, you're missing the point. It's not about precision, it's about confidence."
The resolution of the data is too have any confidence in the conclusion
The unknowns are too large to have any confidence in the conclusion.
Your two examples demonstrate my points
A) We wont know how the movie ends until its over, yet the climate sciences have reached their conclusions with high confidence with significant missing info and significant on unknowns.
B) your example of weather forecasting - "70% " chance of rain tomorrow - in the case of weather forecasting, the meteorologists are working with vastly greater known information.
You keep saying "conclusion." Try restating your point without that word and see what happens.
climate scientists have "concluded " that the current warming trend is human caused by the increase in co2 with high confidence.
Abstract
The ‘Conclusion’ confirms that global warming is the major challenge for our global society. There is very little doubt that global warming will change our climate in the next century.
https://academic.oup.com/book/586/chapter-abstract/135313171?redirectedFrom=fulltext
Randal - are y satisfied
Haha lol. I'm satisfied in that you've confirmed my suspicions. The thing you linked isn't science at all. It's advocacy.
If you can't distinguish science from advocacy then I'm not surprised you're confused.
I kind of wonder if Congress' response to the Major Questions Doctrine won't be to add even more ambiguity to it's grants of power to the agencies. The Clean Air Act obviously did not grant the authority the EPA claimed it did, mainly because it limited authority to new plants or plants with major modifications, and it applied to a Stationary Source.
Always good to see a qualified individual like Prof. Adler opine on an important question like this (cf Prof. Blackman, or not if you want to maintain an equilibrium).
But the real issue on delegation should be the question of whether or not Congress can delegate its war-declaring powers to the Executive Branch. For some reason no one seems to worry about this, but in the short run that issue is far more important than regulation by the EPA.
As a pricipled conservative I see no way the Congress can delegate this power, in fact, it is clear that the war powers remaining with the legislature was an attempt by the Founders to prevent the King/President from making unilateral decisions to go to war. But almost all of my fellow conservatives (yes, I am talking about you Lindsey Graham) have a thirst for war that is so great a little thing like the Constitution does not seem to stand in their way.
Aside from declaring war, what are the "war powers" of Congress? Is a formal declaration of war required every time US troops engage in combat?
Since the very definition of war is US troops engaging in combat I think the answer is yes. If one believes in the Constitution of course and does not dismiss it when its provisions get in the way of Lindsey Graham's desire to go to war with every nation.
No, US troops in combat =/= war.
Troops can engage in combat in non-war quite easily, and have been doing so for centuries.
I remain skeptical that all the folderol around the Major Questions Doctrine(TM), Chevron, and delegation amounts to anything more than insubstantial verbal jockeying, that will affect what judges say more than what they do. What they do will be determined by their prior receptivity to the regulations in question and respect for the particular agency, gussied up as a "chancellor's foot" determination that they think something just goes too far.
Might as well be called the Judicial Activism Doctrine.
What an odd comment from someone who is also posting from behind a pseudonym. How do you know ABC's education, training or experience? Why in the world should a policymaker (or anyone) listen to your amateur (and highly motivated) speculations about ABC's credentials instead of evaluating the facts and arguments for him/herself?
As it happens, however, ABC is quite correct that the catastrophists have a long and and astonishingly well-documented list of failed predictions which discredit their remaining predictions.
ABC is also quite correct that there have been significant (and still unaddressed findings of error in the methodologies and even the source data used in many of the most wildly published climate science articles.
Queen almathea
August.3.2022 at 2:57 pm
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"You don’t have any relevant education, training or experience to make the pronouncements you do on such a monumentally complex subject. Why in the world should a policymaker, or anyone for that matter, listen to your amateur (and highly motivated) speculation on the subject instead of the large majority of experts in the relevant fields who disagree with you?"
Queen you raise an obviously good question -
Though why should we listen to the "experts" when they get so many things wrong. Just look at the experts performance with Covid and what those experts got wrong. Even when they got things right, they still promoted ineffective long term policy solutions.
Queen almathea
August.3.2022 at 2:57 pm
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"You don’t have any relevant education, training or experience to make the pronouncements you do on such a monumentally complex subject. "
Queen you make a very good point on relevant education training and experience. Climate science is immensely complex, requiring significant intellectual capacity. The climate scientists get so many basic things wrong that you have to wonder how they could possibly have the sufficient brain power to understand the complexities of climate science. compare and contrast the climate scientists understanding and solutions such as renewables, subsidies, hurricane intensity predictions, etc.
How dare you question the Queen of all Knowledge while she is busy avoiding the Monkeypox pandemic.
I hadn't realized what she said. Here's a good list of failed predictions. It begins with a few not-yet-expired predictions, but there's comedy gold following.
https://extinctionclock.org/
...and hey, how about the 2022 hurricane season? Those "experts" are sooo knowledgeable.
The Hurricane experts continually refine their projections so that by the end of the season it's close to perfect.