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Prediction Markets

Tarek Mansour | Photo: Reason

Prediction Markets

Kalshi's CEO Wants 1 Set of Rules. The States Want 50.

Tarek Mansour argues prediction markets can police insider trading themselves, but regulators still see a gambling app.

Tosin Akintola | 10.23.2026 2:37 PM

Nick Gillespie appears on the left. Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour appears on the right. An image of a roulette wheel appears in the center square. Bold text across the top of the screen reads "Why Kalshi is NOT a Casino." | Illustration: Fatima Ruiz

Prediction Markets

Are Prediction Markets Just Gambling? Kalshi CEO Responds

Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour discusses the fight to regulate prediction markets, why ordinary people can outperform Wall Street, and the future of American capitalism.

Nick Gillespie | 10.21.2026 11:00 AM

A football on the steps of the Supreme Court | Illustration: Sean Pavone/Les Cunliffe/Mtsaride/Dreamstime/Fatima Ruiz.

Prediction Markets

The NFL Chooses States, Not the CFTC, in Fight Over Prediction Market Regulation

The league's amicus brief warns about game integrity and underage betting, but the NFL has a financial stake in keeping prediction markets under state control.

Tosin Akintola | 10.8.2026 5:45 PM

A slot machine with the Kalshi logo on it | Illustration: Fatima Ruiz/Midjourney.

Ninth Circuit

Kalshi Says It's a Prediction Market. The 9th Circuit Says It's Gambling.

Prediction markets can no longer offer sports event contracts in Nevada after the appellate court's decision, giving other states a roadmap for regulating the platforms.

Tosin Akintola | 9.1.2026 2:04 PM

An illustration of Kathy Hochul alongside the Kalshi logo | Bianca Otero/ZUMAPRESS/Newscom/Timon Schneider

New York

New York Wants a $36 Billion Cut From Kalshi, Calling It an 'Illegal Gambling Operation'

Casting Kalshi as an out-of-control gambling platform makes it easier for the state to take money from the company and its users.

Tosin Akintola | 7.31.2026 3:40 PM

A gavel in front of a picture of a market investment chart | Photo: Yuum/Andrey Popov/Dreamstime. Illustration: Fatima Ruiz

Free Markets

Federal Judge Halts Minnesota's Prediction Market Ban, Signaling Other States' Efforts Might Be Illegal Too

A preliminary injunction will keep Kalshi and Polymarket active in the state after a district judge found federal law preempts the state's ban.

Tosin Akintola | 7.28.2026 3:04 PM

Maryland Capitol and state flag | Karl Merton Ferron/TNS/Newscom

Corruption

Casino Lobbyists Wrote a Letter Attacking Prediction Markets. Maryland Copied It and Sent It to Federal Regulators.

The cronyism committed by the Maryland Lottery and Gaming Control Agency is a little too obvious.

Stephen Kent | 7.6.2026 12:40 PM

Polymarket logo | Adani Illustration: Samat/Instagram/Tiktok

Free Markets

Polymarket's Alleged Fake Trades Don't Justify a Crackdown on Prediction Markets

A Wall Street Journal investigation uncovered $1.9 million in fake bets to market the platform. Punishing the prediction market industry isn't the answer.

Tosin Akintola | 6.23.2026 1:16 PM

Minnesota statehouse | Illustration Credit: Adani Samat. Photo: Ej Rodriquez Photography/Dreamstime

Financial Regulation

Minnesota Law Banning Prediction Markets Creates Victimless Crime

A Minnesota senator got fined for insider trading on a prediction market. His response was to ban the platforms for everyone in the state.

Tosin Akintola | 5.21.2026 5:20 PM

Betting market graph and the U.S. Capitol with money in the background | Illustration: Lex Villena; Midjourney

Online Gambling

The Federal Government Once Tried To Restrict Prediction Markets. Now It's Suing States To Save Them.

In a bid to “reaffirm its exclusive jurisdiction” over prediction markets such as Kalshi, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission is suing six states for interfering in federally regulated financial markets.

Tosin Akintola | 5.1.2026 1:15 PM

Robby Soave and Christian Britschgi discuss Hasan Pikers recent remarks | Illustration: Adani Samat

Politics

Chaos with the SPLC, Hasan Piker Endorses Violence, and Predictions Markets Run Amok

Robby Soave and Christian Britschgi break down this week’s bizarre turn of events: The SPLC got indicted, and Hasan Piker made more violent comments.

Robby Soave and Christian Britschgi | 4.23.2026 4:00 PM

A Polymarket billboard showing Zohran Mamdani and Andrew Cuomo | Photo: Adam Gray/Bloomberg/Getty

Deregulation

Polymarket Returns to U.S. Users After a Nearly 3-Year Hiatus

The online betting company allows you to stake money on future events.

Jack Nicastro | 1.4.2026 6:00 AM

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