Reason.com - Free Minds and Free Markets
Reason logo Reason logo
  • Latest
  • Magazine
    • Current Issue
    • Archives
    • Subscribe
    • Crossword
  • Video
  • Podcasts
    • All Shows
    • The Reason Roundtable
    • The Reason Interview With Nick Gillespie
    • The Soho Forum Debates
    • Just Asking Questions
    • The Best of Reason Magazine
    • Why We Can't Have Nice Things
  • Volokh
  • Newsletters
  • Donate
    • Donate Online
    • Donate Crypto
    • Ways To Give To Reason Foundation
    • Torchbearer Society
    • Planned Giving
  • Subscribe
    • Reason Plus Subscription
    • Print Subscription
    • Gift Subscriptions
    • Subscriber Support

Login Form

Create new account
Forgot password

Protests

Remember When a Democratic Polling Firm Fired the Guy Who Thought Violent Protests Could Backfire Politically?

A pre-Kenosha poll shows support for Black Lives Matter plummeting among white voters in Wisconsin.

Robby Soave | 8.27.2020 1:10 PM

Share on FacebookShare on XShare on RedditShare by emailPrint friendly versionCopy page URL
Media Contact & Reprint Requests
sipaphotosten990620 | Christopher Dilts/Sipa USA/Newscom
(Christopher Dilts/Sipa USA/Newscom)

Back in June, the sudden firing of data scientist David Shor from the progressive consulting firm Civis Analytics raised eyebrows.

Shor had publicized research from the social scientist Omar Wasow showing that violent protests tend to backfire on progressive goals—tipping the 1968 election in favor of the law-and-order candidate, Richard Nixon, for instance—whereas peaceful protests often succeed. In response, Shor was widely derided by the left. On Twitter, the progressive activist Ari Trujillo Wesler accused him of using his "anxiety and 'intellect' as a vehicle for anti-blackness." Employees and clients of Civis Analytics said Shor's statement—which, to be clear, was merely an endorsement of well-grounded social science research that says nonviolent protest is strategically superior—had threatened their very safety, according to New York magazine's Jonathan Chait.

As a result, Shor was terminated. The exact reason for the firing was never specified, but it spoke to concerns among many liberal thinkers—Chait, Vox's Matt Yglesias, and others—that certain sects of the left are unwilling to have difficult conversations about tactics. This is a concern shared by many libertarians, and supporters of free speech culture more broadly.

On Wednesday, polling by Marquette Law School showed that support for Black Lives Matter has plummeted among white Wisconsinites. (The poll was conducted before the recent police shooting in Kenosha, and thus does not reflect attitudes toward that event.)

"A substantial majority approved of protests in June, but this fell to an even split, 48-48 in August," wrote polling director Charles Franklin. Black and Hispanic attitudes toward Black Lives Matter changed little over the summer, but white approval had fallen and "become net negative."

A related piece in Politico surveyed residents of Kenosha—where peaceful protests but also violence, rioting, fires, and looting have consumed the streets at night—and perhaps unsurprisingly discovered plenty of wariness, even among people who are not exactly the law-and-order type:

"There's no doubt it's playing into Trump's hands," said Paul Soglin, who served as mayor of Madison, on and off, for more than two decades. "There's a significant number of undecided voters who are not ideological, and they can move very easily from Republican to the Democratic column and back again.They are, in effect, the people who decide elections. And they are very distraught about both the horrendous carnage created by police officers in murdering African Americans, and … for the safety of their communities." …

Billy Stevens, an African American man who was helping paint the murals, agreed that the violence and destruction on display in the city give Trump more to point to in his reelection campaign.

"He tries to paint a picture of Democratic leaders being weak. Personally, I think it's divisive in times like these," Stevens said. At the same time, Stevens said Kenosha is desperate for order. "Now we're sending in more troops for a large show of force immediately. I do think it's needed right now." ..

Soglin said he's concerned some Democrats aren't paying close enough attention to the business owners and residents in communities coming under attack who want protection. The situation is likely having the biggest effect on swing voters, he said.

John "Sly" Sylvester, a longtime Democrat and radio personality who has been active in the labor movement, said he feared Democrats have a "blind spot" to rioters and looters.

Meanwhile, Joe Biden's lead in Minnesota—whose governor has dispatched the National Guard to quell continuing protest-related violence in Minneapolis—continues to shrink. He was up more than 10 points on July 1, but his lead is now just five points, according to the latest polls.

This is not to say that Biden's campaign is imperiled: He's still clearly ahead. Nor is it the case that Biden is the avatar of violent protests and Trump the avatar of a return to normalcy. Biden has condemned needless violence and failed to fall in line with the more militant left wing of the Democratic Party. Meanwhile, the lawlessness has actually occurred on Trump's watch, and the president has done very little to effectively counter it: Trump's main contributions thus far have been to sweep peaceful protesters from Lafayette Park in Washington D.C. so that he could pose for a photo; deploy federal law enforcement officers to Portland, where the unrest only worsened; and tweet the words "LAW AND ORDER."

But there's plenty of reason to think that Shor's concerns, and Wasow's research, have even more relevance today than they did at the start of the summer. It would be wise for progressives to consider the well-supported idea that what's happening in Kenosha and Minneapolis—and Portland, and even Washington, D.C.—is a net negative for the causes they support.

Start your day with Reason. Get a daily brief of the most important stories and trends every weekday morning when you subscribe to Reason Roundup.

This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.

NEXT: Trump's Staged Naturalization Ceremony Does Not Make Him a Friend of Immigrants

Robby Soave is a senior editor at Reason.

ProtestsActivismElection 2020Kenosha ShootingWisconsinKenosha, Wisconsin
Share on FacebookShare on XShare on RedditShare by emailPrint friendly versionCopy page URL
Media Contact & Reprint Requests

Show Comments (126)

Latest

The EPA Is a Prime Candidate for Reform by the Trump Administration

J.D. Tuccille | 5.9.2025 7:00 AM

Review: A Doomsday Murder Mystery Set in an Underground Bunker

Jeff Luse | From the June 2025 issue

Review: A Superhero Struggle About the Ethics of Violence

Jack Nicastro | From the June 2025 issue

Brickbat: Cooking the Books

Charles Oliver | 5.9.2025 4:00 AM

The App Store Freedom Act Compromises User Privacy To Punish Big Tech

Jack Nicastro | 5.8.2025 4:57 PM

Recommended

  • About
  • Browse Topics
  • Events
  • Staff
  • Jobs
  • Donate
  • Advertise
  • Subscribe
  • Contact
  • Media
  • Shop
  • Amazon
Reason Facebook@reason on XReason InstagramReason TikTokReason YoutubeApple PodcastsReason on FlipboardReason RSS

© 2024 Reason Foundation | Accessibility | Privacy Policy | Terms Of Use

This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

r

Do you care about free minds and free markets? Sign up to get the biggest stories from Reason in your inbox every afternoon.

This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.

This modal will close in 10

Reason Plus

Special Offer!

  • Full digital edition access
  • No ads
  • Commenting privileges

Just $25 per year

Join Today!