Coronavirus

Could the COVID-19 Epidemic Fade This Fall Without New Lockdowns?

A new study suggests that a second higher wave of infections can be avoided.

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Human beings are often terrible at foresight and generally learn hard lessons chiefly from failure. That has certainly been the case for the COVID-19 pandemic. Public health officials, politicians, and the public, by means of repeated policy failures, are still learning what works when it comes to mitigating the COVID-19 pandemic.

A partial list of initial failures in the U.S. includes underestimating the virulence of the pathogen by some public health officials; a massive bureaucratic screw-up by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) that delayed the rollout of diagnostic testing as the pandemic was taking off; the belief that airborne transmission was not a significant route of infection but instead the virus was chiefly passed along via direct contact with infected people and indirect contact with surfaces in the immediate environment; the early assertion that citizens didn't need to wear face masks to protect themselves from infection; epidemiological models making worst-case projections of millions of COVID-19 deaths by assuming that people wouldn't change their behaviors; the claim that the anti-malarial drug hydroxychloroquine was a "game changer" as a COVID-19 treatment; and a president who has doggedly insisted since February that the virus would miraculously fade or disappear soon.

So what has been learned over the past eight months? While conclusions are still preliminary, researchers now calculate that the COVID-19 coronavirus is about three times more contagious than seasonal flu; the availability of diagnostic testing in the U.S. has greatly improved but is still nowhere near where it needs to be; airborne transmission contributes significantly to the spread of the disease; when the background rate of infections is high the widespread adoption of face masks is an effective and very economically valuable method for stemming COVID-19 infections; when epidemiological models took into account actual changes in human behavior, their COVID-19 death projections declined steeply; and the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has concluded that hydroxychloroquine is not a useful COVID-19 therapeutic. But what about President Donald Trump's oft-repeated prediction that the virus will one day soon just disappear?

Epidemiological research suggests that COVID-19 will only fade away once the threshold for herd immunity is reached. Herd immunity is the resistance to the spread of a contagious disease that results if a sufficiently high proportion of a population is immune to the illness. Some people are still susceptible, but they are surrounded by immune individuals who serve as a barrier, preventing the microbes from reaching them. Herd immunity can be achieved via mass infection or mass vaccination. Epidemiologists estimate that the COVID-19 threshold for herd immunity is around 60 to 70 percent.

Some of Trump's fans have recently been touting the idea that COVID-19 herd immunity is closer than initial epidemiological projections have suggested. I, too, have reported that very preliminary studies on unsuspected preexisting T-cell immunity to the coronavirus and speculative modeling results suggest that the effective herd immunity threshold may actually be close, at least, in some countries and some regions of the U.S. (In other words, the possibility of a lower herd immunity threshold is a lucky accident, not the result of presidential prescience.)

Now a new modeling study in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences by a team of researchers associated with the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign suggests that the COVID-19 "heterogeneity-modified herd immunity" threshold has already been reached in some metropolitan areas of the U.S. Their model stands in contrast to many of the epidemiological models noted above that are based on the homogeneous assumption that basically every individual is equally liable to become infected and then to transmit their infection on to others.

The Illinois researchers define heterogeneity as the biological and social susceptibility of individual members of the population to COVID-19 viral infection. Biological heterogeneity takes into account differences in such factors as the strength of immune responses, genetics, age, and comorbidities. Social heterogeneity reflects variations in the number of close contacts that each individual has with different people. Basically the more social a person is, the more likely they are to get infected early in the epidemic and then become immune. The researchers combine biological and social heterogeneity to derive what they call an immunity factor.

The team tests their model on real-world empirical data from hospitalizations, intensive care unit (ICU) occupancy and daily deaths from New York City and Chicago to figure out changes over time in the effective reproduction number for the virus in those cities. The effective reproduction number is the number of people to whom an individual can transmit infection at any specific time, and it changes as more of the population becomes immunized through either infection or vaccination. In addition, the effective reproduction number is affected by people's behaviors such as social distancing and widespread mask-wearing.

Taking the effects of biological and social heterogeneity on COVID-19 transmissibility, the researchers calculate that the herd immunity threshold is likely somewhere between 20 and 30 percent of the population. According to recent reports, more than 20 percent of New York City residents have probably been infected with the coronavirus.

Seeking to see what might happen this fall, the researchers model possible outcomes of the second wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in New York City and Chicago. They consider what they call a "worst-case scenario" in which all current mitigation efforts are fully relaxed and bars, theaters, and restaurants open with negligible social distancing and mask-wearing. Their heterogeneity-modified model projects virtually no second wave of COVID-19 cases in New York City which indicates that herd immunity has likely been achieved there.

On the other hand, they calculate that Chicago has not passed the herd immunity threshold. Nevertheless, the effects of biological and social heterogeneity would still result in a substantial reduction of the magnitude of the second wave there, even under the worst-case scenario. The possible good news is that their results suggest "that the second wave can be completely eliminated in such medium-hit locations [as Chicago], if appropriate and economically mild mitigation measures are adopted, including e.g. mask wearing, contact tracing, and targeted limitation of potential super-spreading events, through limitations on indoor bars, dining and other venues."

Based on data from late May, researchers also calculate that most states were then still far away from reaching their heterogeneity-modified herd immunity thresholds. However, this summer's surge in COVID-19 cases may have brought some states closer to herd immunity. While the coronavirus may not just fade away, these calculations imply that the U.S. has a good chance to avoid a potentially disastrous second wave this fall if the public maintains reasonable social distancing and mask-wearing efforts.

NEXT: DOJ Interim Final Rule Restricts Reliance on Guidance Documents

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  1. The first paragraph is fine. The second paragraph is mostly fine but it was ruined by those last TDS lines. From then on, it went downhill.

    1. LOL – you’ve got a future here.

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    2. Especially the graph.

    3. Second paragraph fails because TDS
      ‘A partial list of initial failures in the U.S. include …
      the claim that the anti-malarial drug hydroxychloroquine was a “game changer” as a COVID-19 treatment’

      #HCQ is a game changer for any country that uses it.

      Bailey is still shilling for the murderous lies of the medical #DeepState, because #TDS.

      #hcqzinc4prevention cuts death and hospitalization rates massively. Add in vitmain D, and Covid just would not have been a problem.

      Note that *all* these preventives were well established to take for *any* coronavirus *prior* to the pandemic.

      This has been pointed out for *months*. But using #HCQ would make Trump look good, so it’s much better for Americans to keep dying.

      The Establishment’s pushing of #CCP propaganda against #HCQ has cost America trillions and tens of thousands of lives. Reason and Bailey played their part in those costs. Sad.

      1. You use more pound signs than OBL

        1. Yeah wtf was that about?

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        2. Hashtags?

        3. so WHATTTT??!!???!!######

          Read for CONTENT. Its there. He is absolutely in the ten ring I have rad multiple couble bllind studies on HCQ solo and with various other components in w two or three dtug “cocktail”.

          GO find some non-government funded/vetted clinical studies from different countries around the world. Go find a guy named Bill Sardii, who has written extensively on this and cites his sources, details the clinical trials, and analised wh they did/dit not work.
          The most damning one is a rigged “study” done amongt some elderly US War vets who had the virus. The idiots waited as the cases progressed, then abuot the time the gents went into hospital and were strong candidates for ventilators (KNOWN to be mostly fatal all on their own) they finaly put them on HCQ alone, were aware if zinc deficiencies all along in these patiiets, but faiiled/refused to adminsite zinc. They watched as most of them dies miserable deaths, not being cured by HCQ alone when adminstered way late in the game, WITHOUT zinc, to patients severely depleted in that mineral, which is essential for immune ssytem functioin. Good ol’ Bought andPaid For Fautchie grabbed taht “study” and paraded it on the nightly news to PROVE once and for all HCQ does NOT work.

          Meanwhile a doctor in New York City was faced with a few hundred cases that were worsening. He put them on HCQ, zinc, and azithromycin, an antibiotic. In five days EVEry ONE OF THEM was disease free, out of hosital, fully recovered. Not the only such study.

          So REASON Mag, get yer faxx straight. and stop promoting, wilfuly or inignorance, the gummit foull line.
          Your “information” on cases and numbers are also skewed. How’s about youse guys doing an in deptch examinationof all the death records of those alledgedy dying of COVID 19. Tell us the percentages who had one, two, or more comoribities. About the ones who came into hospital with a bullet hole in his head or the woman was brought in by the meat hack, had been in a sERIOUS car crash, tested positive, guess “why she died”? Or the man wiht a massiveheart attack and a history of heart issues. He didn’t make it through the night when they tested for ChinaFly, it was positive, so they put HIM down as a COVID death. Liars….

          they WANT to put inflated numbers out there to increasse the fear factor, “justify” continued lockdowns, mug naippies everywhere (I have yet to see ANYONE propery wearing one, I’ll lay high stakes at long odds not one in then thousand has had ANY training on proper protocol, NO ONE is changint them ad specified intervals, and the stiupid cloth thingies everyone is wearing only stop FOUR PERCENT of virus particles inhaled or exhaled. Anyone wanna play Russian ROulette with a ten shot revolver with nine rounds in the cylinder? You r odds would be far better than reality with the China Flu. By a fctor of at least ten.
          Now, since I did not use as many pound signs as did the other guy I’ll make up for that now Here ya go, so you can now holer at ME too… ##################################

        4. No US/Western European government or big pharma study has actually test the hypothesis that HCQ regime given early in the disease process effectively blocks infection/severe symptomatic disease.

          The mechanism for hydrochloroquine regimen:
          HCQ alters the AEC2 receptor and blocks the glycocalyx binding site of the virus. This impairs viral entry into the cell.
          If the virus gets into the cell, HCQ alters the pH of the endoplasmic reticulum so that viral assembly is blocked. Note: it is not clear if this effect is achieved in in vivo (but studies showing that the lung concentration of HCQ is much higher than plasma concentration support this is a valid mechanism.
          Zinc blocks RNA polymerase (the same target as remdesivir).
          There is some evidence that HCQ facilitates entry of zinc into cells and so aides in inhibiting RNA polymerase.
          Azithromycin has antiviral capability as well as antibacterial capability. It is enhances production of interferons (the natural response to inhibit viruses), especially in lungs, and is necessary to block the endotoxemia required for the progression of the disease to state of immunological dysfunction. It also has anti-inflammatory capabilities and inhibits progression to immune dysfunction.
          Clearly, given the mechanism of HCQ regimes, like all anti-viral regimes are best utilized as early in the process as possible. Once the virus has invaded the cell and is multiplying the regimes becomes less effective.

          It is unfortunate that pseudoscience sources such as Reason act as an echo chamber for misinformation. We expect better.

      2. First of all the your article is inaccurate about the face masks. Why does China still have the virus and had lots of people drop dead of the virus? It can not be because they were not wearing masks. They wear masks everywhere even before this virus. The CDC, you gotta love it , actually admitting that you can still get the virus even when the infected is wearing a mask and the uninfected is wearing a mask too. They also admitted that the testing is not accurate either. Here is another question for you. Why are there not numbers of people with the flu? In the year of 2019 during this time there were cases of the flu but now this year there are none. Also why are your paper and the main stream media hyping up the hysteria of this virus. It kills under 1%. Also, when people are asymptomatic which also happens with the flu too, people are not going to go to the doctor. Therefore the number a asymptomatic is a made up number. We do not need lock downs, and we do not need to wear masks. Here is a solution wear a mask if it makes you feel better but also remember that you need to stay 6 feet away from people. How about if you are immune compromised, or sick you do not leave your home. Our immune systems need to be exposed to pathogens, so they can fight it. As for that vaccine, let’s see Bill Gates, Melinda Gates, and Fauci get it first! Just quit this hysteria!

        1. ACTUAL tests PROVE the virus particles travel twenty feet quite easily in normal circumstances when not wearing a mask of any sort, six feet with a mask. A strong sneeze or cough can easily propel that but thirty feet in about ten to fifteen seconds. Shouting loudly can do the same. In Europe they have adopted two different standarsds for “social distancing”. One metre (three point one feet, thirty nine inches) or in places one and a half meters, 4.53 feet or fifty five inches. Somehow the virus WE get this side the Puddle are stronger, cause they can travel six feet, or seventy two inches… baloney. Circumstances, individuals environmental factors, etc, can and do radically change those numbers.

          Yet we insist on worthless paper masks that never get changed all day long, sometimes same one used for days. And some tiny fraction of one percent of them are properly fitted and worn. Hmmm. haven’t we seen that figure before somewhere? Oh, yes the actual death risk is about .026% of ALL thepopulation, and about .25% of those infected.

          biggest propaganda scam ever foisted upon any population anywhere ever.

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    5. Yup. No need for the ‘Trump fans’ line either.

        1. Your parents clearly didn’t beat you nearly enough.

      1. Stop trying to appeal to Democrats, you won’t win them over either.

    6. That, and he ignores the reality that masks other than N95s in clinical settings dont do shit.

      1. Yes. If masks work, why did the number of cases increase in Hawaii, Kentucky, and some other states after the mask diktats were issued? And what about South Korea?

        1. and WHY, in the states where no mask mandates were ever issued, they have the lowest rates of infection/cases AND lowest percentages of death, as in numbers per 100,000 people?
          If the masks did work, and were necessary to prevent the spread of this, HOW could those states that never put them on present such low numbers/ And WHY was there not a YUUUUUGE number of new cases when the motorcycle guys gathered together, closely no masks, no “unsocial distancing”, no room limits, days togther close, three fourths of a milion of them, packed closelly together for a week….. where is the massive increase in cases amongst and from those guys? (hint: weeks later, there ARE no new cases from that event, any more than there are from the riots and takeovers.

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  2. the second wave (a few weeks after the mass protest super spreader event) has already happened and is already starting to recede.

    I predict the severity of the virus will weaken substantially right around November 5th.

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    1. Is that theory dependent on who wins the presidential election and/or one or both houses of congress?

    2. “I predict the severity of the virus will weaken substantially right around November 5th.”

      No, the virus will still be major threat to the nation at least until January 21st. If Biden won, then the virus reporting will take a sudden turn and the reports will all be about how the worst is behind us and that’s old news.

    3. What makes you think so, CE? Just curious, because the Covid-19 Pandemic is still wildly out of control here in the United States, thanks to President Trump’s criminally irresponsible reaction to it, and to the fact that too many people refuse to wear masks and social distance, and also refuse to avoid large gatherings of people.

      1. Hahahahahahahahaha

      2. “…thanks to President Trump’s criminally irresponsible reaction to it, and to the fact that too many people refuse to wear masks and social distance, and also refuse to avoid large gatherings of people.”

        First, we get TDS-posing-as-evidence, and then an admission that whatever was legal, quite a few people are going to (properly) say ‘up yours’ to the authorities.
        Lose, lose, loser.

    4. weaken substantially? Maybe so. I am expecting the news feeds on this silly bit of kabuki theatre to all but disappear, flooded out by how horrible things willl be now we have dJT for another four years.
      Selectiive amnesia is a characteristic of lame stream media.

  3. Even back when we knew nothing about the virus, we knew it had a lifespan of 6-8 weeks. NYC thinking they somehow flattened their curve to 5 months is hilarious.

    This would have all been over if the politicians would have gotten out of the way. Probably less people dead, as well.

    1. Agreed.

      Government has taken the “peel off bandaid as slowly as possible”route rather than just ripping it off.

      The result is more pain that lasts longer. And that’s just the direct damage, like deaths and hospitalizations, caused by the virus. The damage done to the economy as a direct result of government fiat should be considered criminal, and every single governor and mayor who closed down economies should be publicly hanged.

      1. Make sure to get an extra stout rope for J(umbo) B(utt) Pritzker.

        1. +1 to criminal charges for every politician tang did anything drastic

    2. They extended the virus and maximized both economic and non-virus health impacts, which massively outweigh the virus. What is going to be most amusing is watching all these European countries that hid people in apartments get drilled. They already acknowledge that they can’t afford another shutdown.

    3. That uninformed opinion is why the US has among the worst pandemic response in the world today.

      Oh, you wish that nothing was done because it would have been soooo much better when ICUs are overwhelmed.

      Even today, herd immunity will require 1-2 million Americans to die. Their sacrifice for your ignorance.

      No thanks, I’d rather put a gun to your head than let you infect my vulnerable loved ones.

      BTW, lockdowns are only required when people are too stupid and ignorant to act responsibly.

      1. I’d rather put a gun to your head than let you infect my vulnerable loved ones.

        Keep telling yourself that is why you wish to have power over other people. It’s not the real reason, but it sounds so much better than calling us mud-people.

        You and the other lizard-folk could always stay home and not get infected.

        1. You reap what you sow.

          Demonstrating disregard for the lives of others results in many guns to your head.

          1. Hey, look, another morbidly obese, bi-polar basement lurker who wants to kill people who resist socialism.

            The thing I really can’t believe is that you have anyone you consider a loved one. Usually sociopaths look at everyone else as tool.

            1. …wants to kill people who resist national socialism.

              FTFY

          2. If you’re that afraid of the virus it’s on you to isolate yourself. Not on me or other non idiots to accommodate your shrill and insane demands.

            Also, if you intend to put a gun to MY head, it will be a losing proposition for you. Your dreams of another holocaust aren’t going to come true.

      2. Bow down to the totalitarianism you lust for, stormfag.

          1. You’re the one calling for lockdowns, not me. Don’t want me “infecting your loved ones”? Then lock them the fuck down. I’ll take my freedom. You can have your submission to unrestrained power.

            1. I’ll take my freedom. You can have your submission to unrestrained power.

              They don’t realize it but, ultimately, it’s more critical than that.

              Cancel the pro sports, close the schools, empty the churches, run people out of bars and restaurants, lock them in their homes, see where it gets you. How long until the infections subside or a vaccine is developed 2 yrs. 3? 5? 10? More?

              If you think BLM and Antifa riots and citizens policing each other are tough to handle, you don’t have the first fucking clue about what you’re actually doing.

      3. You assume that those 1-2 million Americans dying and achieving heard immunity naturally is avoidable.

        There’s no reason to believe that:
        1. The lock-down was effective in stopping the spread of SARS-CoV-2 rather than merely chronologically displacing the spread to a later date
        2. SARS-CoV-2 will stop spreading if we continue to lock down
        3. Continuing to chronologically displace the spread to even later dates, and eventually into flu season won’t actually be WORSE than allowing it to spread now
        4. An effective vaccine will be developed BEFORE those people die and natural heard immunity is reached
        5. An effective vaccine will EVER be developed before the millions projected to die will do so
        6. The “1-2 million” number is even accurate

        1. You will eventually die.

          By your logic, you should off yourself today.

          Think of all the money you’ll save.

          1. You’re a mendacious idiot. My point was very clearly NOT that “everyone EVENTUALLY dies, we might as well give up”, its that even in the NEAR term, the things you’re proposing are very likely to not make a difference.

            1. “achieving heard immunity naturally“ Is “giving up” dipshit.

              1. What do you call locking people in their homes with the economy shut down until we invent a vaccine that very well may never exist in the hopes of saving all the lives?

                I’ll answer it for you: wishcasting.

              2. Also, that would only be “giving up” if we STOPPED trying to find another treatment or vaccine. Dumbass.

          2. Rob, by my logic, you should have offed ourself a long time ago.

      4. OK. Let’s do the math on your claim. A 20% herd immunity threshold means that we should expect 68 million Americans to be infected (340 million x 0.2). Given the current estimate by the CDC that the WuFlu has a total infected mortality rate (IFR) of a whopping 0.4%, that gives total mortality in the U.S. at an estimated 272,000 (68 million x .004). Assuming a 30% herd immunity threshold, we get a total mortality of 408,000 (340 million x .3 x.04). This is a far cry from the 1-2 million deaths you claim. Suppose further that we locked down and required masks and distancing for only those over 60 or with identified comorbidities. The estimated IFR for those under 60 without such comorbidities drops to 0.2%. So for those under 60 without comorbidities at a 20% threshold, we get 136,000 (340 mil x .2 x .002), and at a 30% threshold, we get 204,000 (340 mil x .3 x .002). So had we done what many here suggested we do, lock down older people but let everyone else go about their lives, we would have roughly the same number of deaths as we have right now, but without the severe economic, psychological, and social damage that the lockdowns have caused. I know math is hard for you leftists, but shit, this is basic arithmetic. Also, if you kept your vulnerable loved ones locked down, no one here would have infected them. One more thing, many of us here were fine with the whole flattening-the-curve thing in regards to hospitalizations, but as it turned out, that was ultimately unnecessary. Of course, the leftist governors who you admire so much actually made things worse for the most vulnerable of Americans, those over 80, and that’s why the death toll is so high relative to the numbers my math produces.

        I’ll leave you with one question, and be honest: Do you hope this new estimate of the herd immunity threshold is right or wrong?

        1. Typical herd immunity is over 80%. I remain skepticsal about significantly lower estimates.

          I hope it’s lower but without science To prove otherwise, we need to act on what we know.

          1. We have yet to see a population that has had an over 20% actual infection rate. Even the Diamond Princess cruise ship only had an actual infection rate of 19% under extremely closed conditions and with a population more vulnerable than the average American. It is estimated that densely populated NYC has an actual infection rate of around 20%, and their rate of new infections is extremely low. Do you really think over 90% of NYC residents are following the mandated protocols? The point is, observations from real world conditions support the lower herd immunity threshold. And where did you get 80%? Even the “experts” say it’s typically 60% to 70%. That you are pulling 80% out of your ass suggests that no, you do not hope it’s lower. As far as the actual science that you claim to respect, there are several studies out of Europe that suggest that 50% of the population was already immune due to T-Cell cross-immunity.

            1. You’re wasting your time with him. He’s a goddamned Holocaust denying actual nazi.

              1. That’s how you justify your bigotry, with more bigotry.

                You refuse to consider one argument because you refuse to consider another.

                Which of us is more likely to lie?

                1. It’s you, hands down.

            2. Typically, measles requires 95% for herd immunity, polio 80 to 85%.

              Which “experts” are you referencing, the ones who say 35% or those saying 60 to 80% for covid19?

              Who’s pulling numbers out of their ass?

              1. This is not the flu, this is not polio, this is not measles.

          2. The people telling us you need 60-80% of the population to have had the virus to reach herd immunity are basing it off the same models that said we’d been hip deep in dead bodies by now.

            They’re failing to take into account that a lot of people are already largely immune to it due to earlier exposure to either SARS or several coronavirus “common colds”. They’re also ignoring the fractal nature of viral propagation: Once the “superspreaders” have immunity, they can’t superspread anymore, and they’re the first people to become immune.

            Immunity based off related viral infections is probably the biggest factor here in why the herd immunity level is much lower for Covid 19 than for something like the measles. The only thing that gives you immunity to the measles is the measles or a vaccine, we don’t have several viruses lose in the population acting like natural live vaccines.

            1. I didn’t realize you were an expert virologist.

              You advance on me to spread “herd immunity through death” and I’ll stand my ground and drop you.

              1. ..herd immunity through death exposure.
                That’s how it works.

      5. Everything you wrote is wrong because you have no idea what you’re talking about. The very first antibody results showed the VAST majority of the country would be just fine.

        You’re also still assuming 100% of the population is susceptible, which is not how it works in the real world. Because about half the people have immunity already, herd immunity becomes a big factor at about 20% infection. Over and over, all around the world.

        1. On August 14 I made this calculation.

          If the current cases in the us are underestimated by a factor of 5 and the death rate remains constant only 740,000 US citizens need to die to reach 35 percent infection based herd immunity.

          1. Stop trying to do math. You’re embarrassing yourself.

      6. Unfortunately, both the third and last sentences of your post really do cut to the quick, Rob Misek! There are far too many people, including President Trump and his Administration, as well as people who are too vicious, ignorant and willfully fucking stupid to act responsibly and comply with the rules of mask-wearing and social distancing, as well as the rules against having large gatherings of people.

        I’ll also add that there are too many people who are willing to accept the loss of tons and tons of lives to this virus, because they’re so pig headed about their preoccupation with so-called herd immunity to this virus, which will never exist. These irresponsible fuckwads are the ones who are preventing the control of the Covid-19 virus and screwing everybody else over, which is why the lockdowns had to take place to begin with.

      7. Why would we care what a bigoted Holocaust denier thinks?

        1. That’s how you justify your bigotry, with more bigotry.

          You refuse to consider one argument because you refuse to consider another.

          Which of us is more credible?

      8. Rob Misek
        August.28.2020 at 9:16 am
        “[…]No thanks, I’d rather put a gun to your head than let you infect my vulnerable loved ones.”

        Fuck off, Nazi scum; may your vulnerable loved ones get ‘deloused’.

        1. You’re obsessed with a false narrative Dipshit.

    4. Definitely less people dead. When they correct the death count to remove died with rather than from and eliminate all the bogus “presumed but not tested”, the number of actual COVID deaths will be lower than the number killed by the lockdownd.

    5. More proof we need to deal with our progressives. They are an existential threat to the rest of humanity.

  4. Wave Segunda was thrust upon us July 1 dude.

    1. Based on the poor response, the US is still in wave 1.

      1. The appropriate response was ‘meh’, but you are still wrong. Like the Nazis that you deny committed atrocities in the name of Science!, you will end up on the wrong side of history.

      2. Maybe in wave .75!

  5. All viruses fade with time, they run out of vulnerable people.

    1. Yeah, but they mutate to overcome human resistance. MUTANT VIRUS!!!

      1. which often happens when you over disinfect, viruses become stronger so why disinfect everything, do they want it to get stronger instead of natural immunity

        1. I supposed you’d prefer to see millions of people die, unnecessarily, to disinfecting everything.

          1. God damn you’re stupid.

      2. The Uncanny X-Virus!

    2. All viruses fade with time, they run out of vulnerable people.

      Considering that any laymen would regard this as “Yeah, point of diminishing returns, duh.” you almost have to wonder if there isn’t some propaganda involved with the term ‘herd immunity’. Because it certainly isn’t necessary and doesn’t generally or always accurately describe the phenomenon but it sure as hell signals that the herd comes first.

    3. Exactly. The flu for example… oh wait…

      1. The flu is always a new mutation .

  6. Their model stands in contrast to many of the epidemiological models noted above that are based on the homogeneous assumption that basically every individual is equally liable to become infected and then to transmit their infection on to others.

    “Assume a spherical cow.”

    1. Hey, how about all those stupid models that predicted 200,000 dead back in March? Boy, are their faces red.

      1. Meh.

        The ones who said 3 million tho? They’re probably bright red.

        Nah, probably not. They’re still scared. Yellow.

        Haha.

      2. No, you lying liar, they were predicting over 2 million dead.

        1. It is what he does. Just like he claims he has no team while touting a team.

          1. So who gets credit for saving 1.8 million lives?

          2. It’s the old “Mott and Bailey” form of argument.

      3. Hey, how about all those stupid models that predicted 200,000 dead back in March?

        200,000 people dead before April? They were way off.

  7. A lot of words, but not the one word that should be there.
    Sweden.
    “I have spoken.”

    1. Two more: South Dakota.

    2. Sweden

      One word “Socialism”

      1. Sweden’s approach had precisely zero to do with their economic system. In fact, they went contrary to the authoritarian approach one should expect from a socialist system.

        1. D, please understand that for Mod, the answer to every problem is going to be socialism.

      2. They aren’t socialist you stupid fuck.

      3. “One word “Socialism””

        Two words: “Lefty ignoramus”

  8. This article needed to be a headline and then one word.

    Yes

    1. Could The COVID-19 Epidemic Continue To Fade This Fall Without New Lockdowns?

      You’d think the guy that wrote “The End Of Doom” could put his TDS and viral infection paranoia aside for a bit.

  9. Human beings are often terrible at foresight

    And yet, Mr. Bailey, here we are. Again.

  10. There’s one inconvenient fact standing in the way of getting back to normal: politicians. They’ve gotten far too accustomed to all this lockdown power, pretending to be Hollywood-style business leaders, barking arbitrary and capricious orders, ordering people around for no reason, little fucking tyrants the lot of them. They aren’t going to let a bunch of facts get in their way. Modern Monetary Theory and Joe Biden will rescue them come January.

    1. Newsom is in all his glory giving daily briefings and all the local news media waits breathlessly for anything he says. I’m sure he will run for President in 2024 since CA governors office is limited to two terms

  11. Actually, Ron, social distancing and other fear factor behavior is the only thing preventing widespread herd immunity. The midwest is the only region that is probably about half way there, the rest is pretty close. FL, TX, AZ, GA, SC are all right there. The rest of the sunbelt is a week or two behind. Hospitalizations are at July 2 levels and falling about 5500 a week, which means we’re currently around June 25th levels of infection, heading towards early April. In 3-4 weeks, it will have come and gone for most population centers and, if people didn’t socially distance, it probably would be over in a week.

    1. Day 160 of 15 days to slow the spread!

        1. Reindeer already did.

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  13. “Human beings are often terrible at foresight and generally learn hard lessons chiefly from failure. ”

    Ronald said, gazing in the mirror.

    1. ” the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has concluded…. ”

      Say no more.

  14. Hey look.

    An article that describes how every model was wildly wrong but predicts the future with new models that will be wildly wrong.

    I’ve seen this picture before.

    1. Exactly. From the get-go, I knew it wouldn’t be nearly as bad as predicted. It never turns out to be remotely as bad as the “experts” predict when it comes to new diseases. AIDS, Mad Cow, SARS, H1N1, and now WuFlu. Their predictions are always wildly overstated. Every. Single. Time.

      Fauci is the worst of them all. He had a hand in many of these horrible predictions, yet the imbecile leftists put the guy on a pedestal. The only reason he’s gotten where he is is because he’s stuck around government agencies his whole life (where btw one is never held accountable) and learned to play their political games. It’s certainly and demonstratively not because he has any sort of competence when it comes to this sort of thing.

  15. So de Blasio’s early dipshittery may inadvertently prove the president would have been correct if not for the lockdowns?

  16. “A new study suggests that a second higher wave of infections can be avoided.”

    Who has ever predicted a “second wave” would be “higher”?

    1. Those who count seasonal flu deaths as part of the “second wave”?

      1. Don’t forget motorcycle accidents.

  17. Am I crazy or did the “flatten the curve” excuse to justify the lockdowns magically morph into the “stop the spread” excuse for extending the lockdowns? Why is no one talking about that?

    1. Wanna bet people are wearing masks next year?

      1. The physical masks or the perceptual masks, or maybe both?

      2. Years may come, and years may go, but the desire to virtue signal remains forever…

        1. COVID is a gift for the Nanny State. The opportunity to grow children in masks and bubbles when there is zero possibility that they will be harmed makes perfect sense to a Nanny. I also watch the new FFs fighter females leading the way in terms of sucker punches and kicks.

    2. It didn’t “morph” per se. It was an outright lie from the very beginning.

    3. Not crazy. And in the UK it’s morphing into (like in Aus and NZ) into ‘Zero-Covid’.

      Masks forever!

    4. Lots of people are talking about that. Just not any people in power or in the MSM. And I’m not even sure if stop-the-spread is the goal now. Is it a vaccine? Is it a vaccine as long as it isn’t Trump’s vaccine? Is it total eradication of the virus? I have no idea what we’re trying to do anymore. I’m slowly going crazy with the lockdowns and the masks. Seeing protesters do the opposite of social distancing but not being criticized by anyone in power adds insult to injury. Either the virus is so deadly that we must socially distance or it’s not really that bad so protests are okay. By some dark magic, both are true in this country.

  18. However, this summer’s surge in COVID-19 cases may have brought some states closer to herd immunity. While the coronavirus may not just fade away, these calculations imply that the U.S. has a good chance to avoid a potentially disastrous second wave this fall if the public maintains reasonable social distancing and mask-wearing efforts.

    How can both sentences be true? Social distancing, if it works, delays the immunity. as you seemed to be pointing out in the first sentence.

    1. Everyone is hoping for herd immunity before they catch it themselves.

      1. Speak for yourself. I don’t give a shit about the herd.

        1. I don’t give a shit about the herd.

          In the viral pandemic sense. I absolutely give a shit about the herd in the “They’ll chase you out of a place of business, burn it down, and then come after you unless you shoot them.” sense.

    2. How can both sentences be true?

      That is how you Science! these days. Ignore evidence and stick with whatever political narrative is most likely to embarrass the president.

  19. I am very disappointed in the American people. Home of the Brave and Land of the Free my ass.

    1. Yup. I want a flamethrower, every time I see one of those “Hawthorne Strong,” or “Jersey Strong” signs. Much stunning! What brave!

    2. and don’t get me started on the “greatest generation.”

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  23. Getting to natural herd immunity in this country will be difficult. With a population of 328 million you will need about 230 million exposed with antibodies. That works out to an infection rate of over 600,000 people/day if you want to get there in a year (that’s February or March 2021). The article is correct that we may see herd immunity in local areas and randomized antibody testing might help find these areas. The last line of the article best describes the situation. We are stuck with masks and social distancing for the near future.

    1. A troll says what?

    2. “Near” future? That’s cute.

    3. We are stuck with masks and social distancing for the near future.

      Until Nov. 7th unless mail-in voting drags things out further. Once Trump wins, people talking about masks and lockdowns as protracted policy have no leg to stand on outside their local fiefdoms. To which the local voters will resolve the issues as they see fit. Unless the President can force the people of GA to wear a mask, the people in AL are eventually going to figure out that the masks don’t do shit, and all the Karens between GA and AL can be freely told to cram it up their ass.

    4. unless, of course, you are harassing diners in DC or burning down a car dealership.

    5. COVID is a gift for the Nanny State. The opportunity to grow children in masks and bubbles when there is zero possibility that they will be harmed makes perfect sense to a Nanny. I also watch the new FFs fighter females leading the way in terms of sucker punches and kicks.

  24. Given the amount of power that lockdowns give politicians, it’s hard to imagine our “leaders” ever willingly ending the lockdowns.

    1. nope. we laid down for this one fast and surrendered right away. now we’re stuck.

    2. the problem with any lockdown is whenever you reopen you will have a surge, simple fact, then people scream we opened to soon. We see this in some states and new Zealand and Austrailia and several European countries. Lockdowns are only effective for things like ebola which has a fast transmission and high death rate.

      1. “Lockdowns are only effective for things like ebola which has a fast transmission and high death rate.”

        So much this.

        1. Though add to that a short incubation time.

      2. Quick get this guy to the CDC so all those expert medical authorities can hear what he has to say!

        1. thanks for acknowledging my intellect. But i would never work for them they wouldn’t listen just like they haven’t listened to the other certified experts telling them the same thing.

  25. Why does Ron act like the heterogeneous models are something they lucked into? Discussions, research, and modeling efforts in this area have been going on for ~6 months.

  26. All I know is whatever happens, Bailey will fold and defend it just like he always does. Being a hack is his jam

  27. oh goodie more models and studies and guessing. i’m not going to read it because i am really done with covid predictions. enough. uncle. make it stop. considering the riots and increased violence in boarded-up cities and protesters ignoring social distancing completely i can’t even believe we still talk about this.

    the virus just seems pathetically small at this point. i’d rather get the virus that read one more fucking speculative model-study article. when will we just admit we cannot see the future and nobody really knows anything about it and fucking move on with our lives.

    i want my life back.

    1. Move on with our lives… except for the hundreds of thousands of dead. Such a nonissue! Unlike you having to wear a mask in public.

      1. You got a plan to resurrect them? No matter when we move on with our lives, they will still be dead. Even if I wear a mask in public.

      2. Stupid Tony thinks his face diaper is a magic totem that will keep the bad bodily humors out. Even though cloth masks don’t do shit.

        Too bad democrats are completely ignorant of science.

  28. “a president who has doggedly insisted since February that the virus would miraculously fade or disappear soon”

    Which your article then shows is happening. Strange

    1. And even though he’s afraid to admit it, the article suggests that the lockdowns and mask BS have actually made the overall state of the nation (economically, psychologically, and socially) worse. That conclusion is inescapable.

  29. Following is something I wrote back in May. Think it is still valid although unsure how release of a mass of previously shielded vectors (kids in schools) will screw up MVV. In any case, stay safe and try not to become a bad statistic…

    Monk Virtual Vaccine (MVV)

    People seem confused lately when they see experts say that if everyone reopens too soon that we will see X deaths by a certain date…and then when that date passes with less deaths they feel justified in ignoring the problem because it must not be that bad after all. Even though, obviously, the massive amount of deaths to date are horrendous.

    I think what is happening is that people don’t understand the power of herd immunity, increased testing, and the new Monk Virtual Vaccine (MVV) that more and more people are taking. Let me explain.

    Herd immunity is fundamentally a concept that based on a viruses ability to spread (speed and ease of transmission, frequency of symptomless transmission, length of time a person can transmit) and lethality, at a certain percentage of the population being “immune” to the virus the virus will actually starve itself out.

    Starving itself out sounds nice, but how does that really happen? Basically it’s just gambling odds. If someone infected goes to church and statistically the odds are really low that someone not immune will sit near that person, then no one becomes infected. Add to that testing and contact tracing and quarantining/self isolating people who are unfortunate enough to lose to those odds and you can see how the virus could starve out.

    So, the immune part of the equation sounds like a good idea, but don’t many tens of millions of people have to die to achieve herd immunity? Well, yes, if 1) you don’t have a vaccine or 2) you don’t have a medical means of reducing the death rate of those that get infected. Luckily we have another solution.

    Immunity at its simplest is the inability to catch something. We always used to laugh at the character Monk on TV for being so fearful of catching something that he had massive supplies of wipes, cleaners, tissues, bottled water, etc and avoided contact with people, distanced himself from possibly sick people, and even wore masks (or full hazmat suits a couple of times :)). Basically some of our new normal and something that is on the par with a real life vaccine. You basically take yourself out of the virus transmission equation by being like Monk and not catching the virus in the first place.

    So how does this explain the discrepancy in forecast vs actual covid deaths over time? Well, fear comes into play just like it does with Monk (well, not as bad as Monk, obviously, if you’ve ever watched the series). Fear and common sense. Fear when people hear that opening up will cause more deaths and common sense when people accept the new normal of playing it safe by wearing masks, safe distancing, avoiding spending time indoors with people they don’t know and trust extremely well who are not wearing masks, etc. When combined with increasing number of people gaining immunity based on antibodies achieved by recovering from coronavirus and a larger number of people taking the MVV approach, herd immunity could possibly work without the massive number of deaths forecast.

    Apologies for sentence structure. Typing this on my small (ancient) iPhone screen wasn’t the best choice. Almost forgot…don’t fool yourself into thinking that we are anywhere near ifr based herd immunity. Those low ifr numbers you hear bandied about are based on early estimates based on poorly representative sampling back in March and April before widespread testing kicked in. Even today’s numbers are hard to calculate since 1) people that are playing it really safe won’t submit to a random test at a grocery store and 2) most people getting tested are doing so because they have a reason for thinking they might have been exposed. Guessing ifr will turn out to be much closer to current CFR than people expect.

    1. Given that the death rate is dropping much faster than the infection rate, I don’t see how you can possibly say that.

    2. Oh yeah, and screw your “new normal.”

    3. Yeah. No.

      I’m a Monk type. I always kept my distance from people (because they’re whack jobs for the most who can flip on you on a dime. Heh) and because I’m a natural introvert.

      I never ever thought that it was normal behaviour. Just my behavior BUT people did think I was weird if not ‘exaggerating’.

      Now, here we are those same people are doing the same thing and masking up and acting irrationally, and I’m the one telling them they’re exaggerating!

      “common sense when people accept the new normal of playing it safe by wearing masks, ”

      Common sense new normal.

      /fist in mouth.

      2020.

    4. “…people accept the new normal of playing it safe by wearing masks, safe distancing, avoiding spending time indoors with people they don’t know and trust extremely well who are not wearing masks, etc…”

      Up yours.

  30. Oof. Sighs. Hoo-kay. Deep breath. Makes Doug Henning hand move.

    We get it Ron. You’re all in with the masks. I read your link. And with all studies like it, it leaves me unmoved and pivots back to my overall point.

    One, the studies that cast doubt on their effectiveness outweigh and are more convincing than those that support masks. Two, and this is where I think gets to the hear of the matter. Reason is ostensibly a libertarian magazine correct? So, shouldn’t you guys be weighing the evidence of masks against MANDATING them since this brings into question civil liberties? From the over 40 studies I’ve read on the pros v. cons, to me, the cons make clear it’s NOT justified for its limited effectiveness.

    There are too many factors that need to happen for it to work out. Mask handling of course is one. Then there’s the

    And what is it with scientists saying mandates lead to more compliance? Are they autistic or just plain ignorant? OF COURSE, compliance increases because they’re backed by FORCE and COERCION in the form of fines. Most people wear them to a) shut people up and avoid trouble and b) to avoid getting a fine.

    I don’ think the trade-off based on the science is justified. Even with that link you provide. At best, the evidence suggests voluntary action. Not mandates. Study after study they all say it works in CONJUNCTION with other non-pharma measures. Relaxing one for the other is foolish nonsense. Think of another thing, for masks to work, you need over 80% compliance. Well Lord Suh, why stop at masks? Seems to me such compliance can be applied to anything in the interest of the pubic good. Make people wear helmets! Your noggin is no good if soft, right?

    Risk/reward is being thrown out the window to the point we’re losing what it means to be human. I don’t think we should be messing wth people’s minds with masks.

    I get the idea of ‘you don’t need absolute evidence’ to do right for public health. But we’re now in a place where the public collective heath takes precedence over liberty and this is a Faustian Deal we will forever regret. Add that we have to abandon personal liberty for the environment and we suddenly find ourselves living for nature and health. There’s no longer room for personal freedom and individualism. Masks are manufactured consent and COLLECTIVIST.

    I reject the notion on the grounds of science I’m belligerent. And I we can play ‘yeh but my study shows’ all day long. Drop the masks. It’s not a habit we should be forming. Between social distancing and masks, give me the former.

    I’m also not smart enough to understand the causality/correlation angle in that study. I’ve been monitoring Quebec since it mandated masks only in stores since July 18. Prior to it, we had double digit cases in June. And then to the run up of the mandates, it rose by low triple digits. It’s been hovering around there sine then.

    This is a play to social engineer ‘in case’ the fall becomes a disaster. They can spin the ‘success’ of masks however they want.

    If it goes higher: Wear the masks! Do it for the nation!
    If it remains steady: It’s working. Stay the course!
    It if goes lower: It’s working! Let’s get to zero!

    The question society should be asking, how long for do we have to do this since the number of cases are already low? Are they pulling towards that insane ‘Zero-Covid’ movement? What’s the end game? All we seem to be doing is micro-managing a virus that can’t be micro-managed.

    I’ve instructed my worker to NOT wear the masks all day long. It’s cruel. I’m also of the opinion that adults Mask Nazis forcing kids to wear them in school or planes or wherever else are engaging in child abuse. I certainly don’t wear one and you can all kiss my ass.

    And so far what I understand from you Ron is, you seem to think the lockdowns are a viable option and that masks must be mandated.

    https://www.express.co.uk/life-style/health/1320428/Coronavirus-news-lockdown-mistake-second-wave-Boris-Johnson

    1. Again though Rufus, your argument about masks proceeds from the presumption that we don’t want this to spread, with which I disagree. Given the low IFR predicted by the CDC for those without attendant comorbidities, it would be far better to confine the social distancing, masks, and lockdowns to those who have a worse than 1 in 500 chance of dying from the thing. I believe that’s true even with a 60% to 70% herd immunity threshold.

      1. I just want to apologize for the incomplete sentence “Then there’s the…”

        As to your point, just so I’m clear you disagree with the argument masks can stop the spread?

        But in any event, absolutely. Be far more surgical than this mass approach. The virus is circulating and not likely to ever go away who knows? So when will it be safe to knock it off?

        When the R number is below 1? When they tell us? There should be clear objectives here.

        The lockdowns were already not rooted in science and look at the heavy price we’re paying and WILL be paying.

        The same people who pushed for lockdowns (and ahem, the four food groups which I always hated) are now big on masks.

        Tickle me skeptical.

        Again, so Tony doesn’t get his garter belt all twisted and misapplies his lipstick, I’m ok with voluntary masks. I think there’s *some* use for it. If people feel good with them, so be it. They made their call and I made mine. But then, I was forced into one camp which I resent. I don’t think the science and evidence backs up mandates.

        For the love of God, France is forcing people to wear them all the time except for when they shit! Come on man. Get real.

        1. I’m in full agreement with you. I just don’t like seeing people give into the “we can’t let this spread at all” presumption. I also use the “we need to be social distancing” excuse when someone invades my personal space. Fortunately, I don’t have to resort to that too often these days, so there is an upside.

  31. As for HCQ. This one is interesting.

    Here’s a link to its usage where doctors upload in real time results. Seems to me, it’s overwhelmingly positive including other treatments at play.

    https://c19study.com

    The argument in favor of masks is that it’s a low-risk measure employed to stop spread and that we should do everything in our power to save granny.

    Well, why aren’t we using these treatments including plasma transfusions and RFL-100? The claim is that they’re not empirically proven to work but yet we drop that standard for masks where we say mask up for your own good despite potential harmful trade-offs and curbing of liberties?

    I’m sorry. I’m calling bull shit.

    1. Somebody explain this fixation to me, at long last. Is it literally ONLY because Trump beclowned himself endorsing it as a miracle cure, and you’re still desperately clinging to hope that you can salvage some of his dignity?

      Or is it yet more hack work in favor of some GOP donor that you don’t even know is pulling your strings? I genuinely don’t know anymore. Is the explanation stupidity, or stupidity?

      1. /grabs mic from Tony.

        Thanks again Tony for being you.

        This is not about Trump. Who cares what Trump said? That’s a reason to deny or accept it?

        But it DOES seem to be about Trump for Democrats.

        1. Nice! Good style.
          Seems like the public outcry is similar to the old Star Trek episodes where McCoy shouts, “For God’s sake, Jim, DO SOMETHING!”
          It’s an annoying waste of time to listen to so many loud announcements of ignorance.
          There’s no scientific study proving masks prevent virus spread but not wearing one can get you punched in the face.

          1. Yes, I classify that as part of the unintended consequences. We’re conditioning people to look at every as a threat. People are snitching on one another, and the state is threatening citizens with fines.

            So much enlightenment and science these masks. Again, let’s repeat, Sweden (Denmark, Norway and Holland) don’t mandate masks. For now anyway. But they seem to grasp, at least with Dr.Tegnell anyway, they’re psychologically damaging and the science behind them are ‘astonishingly weak’ as he put it.

            And you can bet your bottom dollar a lot of these experts and public officials aren’t wearing the masks when you’re not looking.

            1. I’d also add, with each passing day without a return to full normalcy because of fear, it has a potential level of danger in terms of quality of life lost.

              Three weeks in masks is awful, three months an abomination.

      2. Perhaps it’s because its a possible treatment that’s shown promise in treating what fear-mongers claim is the worst disease since the Plague of Justinian? Why wouldn’t you explore a possible treatment/therapeutic/cure?

        What’s with the fixation on masks? What’s with the fixation on locking people in their homes? What’s with the fixation on NOT using HCQ? What’s with the fixation on keeping the economy in the toilet?

        Why are we told the BEST things we can do are to wait for a vaccine while locked in our homes with masks on and the economy shut down? Things which affect all of us because Karens like you won’t leave people alone.

        Why aren’t we really even having a reasonable discussion about whether HCQ is effective, let alone letting patients who WANT to try it do so? Why aren’t we having a larger discussion about the possible wide-scale use of convalescent plasma therapy? Why no major discussions on the use of high-dose vitamin D?

        The difference? The things we ARE “allowed” to do all involve controlling massive swathes of the population. Things we AREN’T “allowed” to do involve allowing individuals and their doctors to make their own decisions. The difference is that changing the conversation might just undermine the positions fascists like you hold.

        1. And all this over an illness which is *claimed* to have killed ~1/2 of 1/10 of 1% of our population.
          Which claims are certainly due a degree of skepticism:
          “Colorado now breaking down deaths due to COVID-19 versus people who died with COVID-19”
          […]
          “According to Friday’s data, 878 people died in Colorado due to COVID-19, while a total of 1,150 people – including the 878 – have died and had COVID-19….”

          Only overstated by something very close to 100%

  32. It is clear that something is happening in downstate New York that is not just from shutdowns and the actions of the people. Things in New York reopen and infections don’t change. I am sure that some things help, like masks, the closing of bars, concerts and movies, but that what really is happening is this: the region was so infested with Coronavirus that now the virus can’t find pockets to infect.

    What is a bit concerning about this is if it is true will people believe that it is the draconian actions of the government halting the virus or just plain measles-like exposure? How long then, will people hold onto the comforting but ineffective shutdowns?

    1. Yep. NYC has been shut down for months for no reason. If the population were still susceptible, SOMEBODY would have kicked off another wave.

      1. Exactly. Do we really believe that over 90% of NYC residents are following the mandates?

    2. Yep.

      T-cell immunity is at play. NYC hit herd immunity at 70%: 20% infected plus 50% of those who had t-cell immunity from previous coronaviruses that caused them no noticeable illness when they were infected.

      There is no other reasonable way to explain what has happened in NYC, and in many, many places around the globe.

      One must harbor a pre-existing, deep-seeded trust in “Big Brother” government in order to look to lockdowns as the reason for the end of the pandemic in these places, while ignoring what we have learned in the past six months about t-cell immunity.

      I have noticed that the Democrats have suddenly become the “Anti-Science Party”.

      1. Suddenly? Their stance on GMOs, fracking, and transgenders didn’t convince you previously?

        1. Ha…I stand corrected. Democrats have whirled the term “Anti-Science” at anyone who does not agree with their narrative.

          Now, in the face of empirical data from nations around the globe, stemming from several independent studies, that show that children do not get sick (very, very rarely so), and also do not show to spread CV, Democrats are going against school openings because why? Because Trump’s Sec. of Health is following the CDC guidelines and telling schools that this data informs us that opening schools is the right thing to do.

          Everything is political…every…single…thing.

  33. Hydroxychloroquine may well work. I encourage you to look at John Campbell’s HCQ video from yesterday.

    Campbell is a doctor who’s been covering Covid in daily youtube videos since the start of the pandemic. He does so from a doctor/scientist perspective, without political spin. He’s now persuaded that HCQ works, thanks in large part to a recent Belgian study. The video is 36+ minutes, but he summarizes his conclusions right at the beginning, so you don’t need to watch the whole thing unless you want a deep dive into the science.

  34. Masks are a weak defense. They mostly serve a a reminder to be careful. Around here when you go to the store you wear them. Charles checking out your food at the grocery as he does for who knows how many people every day is working hard and has one. If for no other reason than respect for Charles I have no problem with doing the same.

    Herd immunity is misused and misunderstood as I have argued here before. It depends on variables which cannot be accounted for in mathematical modeling. The biological behavior of a new wild virus not completely understood, infectivity, latency period, human behavior, other things which cannot be reduced to an equation.

    Mathematical modeling and science of epidemiology are useful tools, but they are just that. Keep that in mind.

    So far as use of certain drugs or plasma therapy on an empirical basis. Plasma therapy has been around for a century. Medicine has mostly seen it as a “last ditch” or “heroic” effort. Not to say those are not worth doing. I do not see why there should be barriers to that so long as the patient consents and we know what we are talking about.

    I think what you mean is not scientifically proven rather than empirical. Empirical methods have been used in medicine forever. Try this and see what happens. Give her high dose steroids. That seems to have worked. In the current Covid outbreak the empirical method is likely to be most useful. We cannot wait.

    1. We have no control over herd immunity as individuals, so I only care about my immunity. Masks prevent that to some degree and that is why they want everyone wearing them and not to protect people from a fake virus. If enough people get some sort of immunity through direct exposure, then a stupid vaccine will not be needed. That is taking $100 billion dollars out of Gates’s and Fauci’s pocket as well as $100’s of billions more from corrupt Big Pharma. Masks will only make you sicker by depleting your immune system and also causing dental problems due to increased bacteria in the mouth.

      1. If it is a “fake virus” why do anything?

  35. Study after independent study from several nations around the world have confirmed that Covid-19, though novel, is not so new that it is not recognized by our body’s t-cell response, and that between 40% and 60% of populations show t-cell response to Covid-19.

    T-cell immunity is the “dark matter” that we knew was at play when it was noticed that 50% of those infected show no symptoms. And, sure enough, three months into the pandemic this “dark matter” revealed itself.

    Similar to how astronomers discovered Pluto by noticing a tiny little wobble in the orbit of Neptune, the result of Pluto’s pull.

    It is not about antibodies, as those fade and are supposed to fade, but rather t-cell response, which are more durable.

    The reason we have been focusing so much on antibodies is that testing for such is relatively easy, and therefore everyone and his uncle put out an antibody test to cash in. The media responded to antibody reports, and thus our focus was corralled.

    The new focus is t-cell immunity, and this is much more difficult to test for, and expensive. But, this seems to be the true body response that determines if we become ill from Coronavirus, or if we can become infected and shake it off (as 50% of knows cases have shown).

    1. Excellent truth my friend.

    2. Not exactly. There is a cascade of events which occur when an antigen is introduced. Lymphocytes include both T and B cells. There are subtypes of T cells. In order to “see” an antigen a T cell must have the proper cellular code broken down on a cell surface. So you are already infected and may or may not be infectious to others.

      Immunology is very complicated. Mother Nature exposes us to many thousands of antigens the day we are born. Ever notice how babies and toddlers crawl around and stick everything in their mouths? There is a reason for that. They also tend to get sick sometimes but that pink amoxicillin and some chicken soup mom makes generally gets them through it.

      The T cell if it is activated releases a number of factors which trigger an immune response. Those include the activation of other cells such as B cells and plasma cells (which produce immunoglobulins) macrophages. and granulocytes. It gets more complicated because some of the cytokines are what makes you feel sick, interleukins for example.

      So if you have the sniffles and still show up for work the next day next to me. You might be fine in a day or so I might be out for a week. No way to predict it.

      Naturally occurring so called “herd” immunity is rare. What we call herd immunity near always occurs when there is an effective agent such as a vaccine. The list of major diseases, polio, smallpox, measles, mumps, rubella, now progress with hepatitis B, HPV, rotavirus, RSV, others and some of which have no vaccine or vaccines which do not always work such as malaria, HIV, TB.

      Even then herd immunity is mostly a myth. If you have a percent of the population without immunization, say at Disneyland, they are exposed to a case of measles. Now you have measles somewhere else.

      1. Sure, but for lack of a better term, “Herd Immunity” is what we have.

        And sure…there may never be no level that we achieve 100% herd immunity. But, if this were a major concern, then wouldn’t we still be battling each and every virus that homo sapiens have been in contact with over that past 200,000 years? Or even longer, as we evolved from previous “homo _______” ancestors who also faced countless viruses, and we certainly share enough DNA with at our t-cell/immunity response level.

        Pardon my ignorance. I am an archaeologist not an immunologist.

  36. Do not be shocked if another fake pandemic of some sort appears in September of 2020. It might not be related to Covid-19, but of some other nature. Agenda 201 from late last year presented by the Commie Claus Schwab, all but proves this was a fake pandemic designed to create fear and panic and accelerated by the mainstream media. This is a global push by Gates, Soros and other megalomaniacs within the Deep State to replace capitalism and freedom with the Marxist green agenda (elimination of ALL CO2) and outright slavery, otherwise known as the GREAT RESET. Gates is already calling for lockdowns, masking, distancing and hiding in the closet at least through 2021. By that time he hopes to have his RNA/DNA altering vaccine ready for the entire population of earth, barring the ruling class of course. Never mind that every Covid vaccine will NOT and in NO WAY be thoroughly tested before forced administration to the public. Most people have no clue because they are glued to propaganda filled TV news and fake media news sites like Facebook, Google and Yahoo.

    1. Naw…they are betting they can pump enough oxygen into the existing coronavirus storyline to keep it alive just long enough to keep the panic and fear in play.

      Our job as citizens or this Great Nation is to be well-informed, to question the F out of everything, and to embrace dissenting opinion as the only was to reach clarity and truth (in line with the Scientific Method).

      Without such an approach, the tyranny and government overreach we have witnessed these past six months has been allowed to fester and take root.

      I am ashamed at my fellow citizens for not asking more questions, for not questioning the narrative, and have grown tired waiting for more of us to start doing so.

      1. So much this. Which is why I harp on the masks.

        A seem like an innocuous demand or request but it’s not in the wider context of questioning authority. From the onset the authorities have been wrong and inconsistent. Now they’re mandating masks out of the blue. For months they correctly pointed out the limits of masks. Now it’s wear them or else we lock you down. It’s retarded and people swallow it.

        It’s pretty amazing how resilient people have been up to now in keeping with the shifting narrative like mindless sheep.

        1. “It may seem like….” I stopped asking for an edit button at Reason in 2015.

          And the cynic in me wonders why is this continuing to be pushed? Pharma bet and countries spent billions on this vaccine and the virus isn’t exactly cooperating. So they have to keep the fear going to get a ROI.

          For fuck sakes, the Premier of Manitoba was babbling about how we have reign this in. C. 200 cases per day in Canada and 22 in Manitoba.

          22!

          And this hysterical boob was acting like this was a plague waiting to engulf his province.

          That’s 200 in a population of 37.8 million.

          Just on basic raw data this makes little sense.

  37. This article is just wishful thinking. New York has not developed herd immunity, not even close. You could be saying the same about Italy but the second wave is now emerging.

    1. Is it a 2nd wave or is it just because the lockdown were lifted?

      We ludicrously kept – and continue – under lockdown. Once they were allowed out (just my typing that angers me), it was bound to happen, no?

      We’re three months behind Sweden.

    2. If NYC was vulnerable, somebody would have kicked off another wave. Thinking they stretched the curve over 5 months is laughable. They didn’t even start cleaning the subways until it was too late.

    3. Re: Italy “Second Wave”.

      Number of cases is trending upwards, that is true, but nowhere near the levels seen in March/April.

      Now look at number of deaths in Italy by CV. They are very nearly flat, and hovering around 5-20 per day for two months.

      This tells us what we already suspected, that the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) is much lower than where we thought it was in March/April.

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  39. when did reason become the huffington shitpost?

  40. Begs the question of “why is it important”?
    The virus is not nearly as virulent as first suspected. A large portion of the population is already immune and asymptomatic while infected. We don’t panic over the flu. We should never have panicked over COVID-19.

    1. Yes! Based on % of U.S. population, coronavirus is about 20% more deadly as the 1968 influenza.

      The Math:

      1968 U.S. influenza deaths: 100,000

      1968 U.S. population 200,000,000

      2020 Coronavirus Deaths Estimated Total: 200,000

      2020 U.S. Population: 330,000,000

      100,000 divided by 200,000,000 = 0.0005 x 330,000,000 = 165,000

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