It Figures That Michigan Is Among the First States To See Protests Against Social Distancing
Plus: Puerto Rico criminalizes fake news about COVID-19, wide geographic disparity in U.S. income growth, and more...

Protesters take over streets around Michigan State Capitol. Even as polls show a majority of Americans are reluctant to resume business as usual, residents of some states have started publicly pushing back against stay-at-home and social-distancing orders. Cities in Michigan, North Carolina, and Ohio have all seen organized protests in the past week.
In Michigan—where state leaders aren't just determining which businesses can stay open but what particular goods they can sell, and where some sheriffs have declared that they won't enforce the rules—people participated yesterday in an "Operation Gridlock" protest organized by the Michigan Conservative Coalition and the Michigan Freedom Fund. The organizers stressed to protesters (which Politico puts in the "hundreds" and NBC News in the "thousands") that they should remain in their cars, but many didn't listen.
The demonstration may have backfired if the goal was actually getting the state government to reconsider its rules. Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer said in a TV interview afterward that "this is the kind of behavior that extends the needs for stay-at-home orders."
Then again, a substantial number of Michigan residents had no problem defying that order yesterday.
That Michigan is one of the first places seeing substantial pushback against state stay-at-home orders is no random occurrence. Whitmer has instituted one of the nation's most severe stay-at-home policies, banning everything from the sale of paint to the use of motor-powered boats (but not canoes) while the state-run lottery remains "essential." The whole mess highlights the sadly symbiotic relationship between authorities taking things too far and people (some reasonably and strategically, some carelessly and imprudently) reacting in ways that provoke more draconian policies.
Americans have proven quite willing to play along with social-distancing directives when these directives are narrowly tailored to stopping the spread of COVID-19. If there's a lesson from Michigan for other states, it's that imposing overly-strict rules or trying to sneak pet policy transformations into precautionary measures will provoke backlash that makes public health goals even more difficult to reach. If state and local leaders want their people to consent to COVID-19 emergency measures and be partners in public health, rather than antagonists, they should look to Whitmer's examples as what not to do.
"The absolutist nature of the country's shutdown and the economic rescue package have democratic consent—enacted by a bipartisan roster of governors and overwhelming votes in Congress—but it was the kind of consent achieved by warning would-be dissenters, Are you serious? There is no choice!" writes John F. Harris at Politico today. "Many people concluded that for now there is nothing to do but suck it up. It won't be surprising if some of those people eventually have an intense desire to spit out."
FREE MINDS
Puerto Rico criminalizes misinformation. A new law makes it a crime "to transmit or allow the transmission" of any "false information with the intention of creating confusion, panic, or public hysteria, with regards to any proclamation or executive order declaring an emergency, disaster or curfew." Breaking the law can lead to six months in jail and a fine of $5,000.
"This doesn't just violate the Constitution, it makes it more difficult for journalists to cover the pandemic as it unfolds," points out Tim Cushing at Techdirt.
A lack of solid information isn't the same thing as misinformation, but criminalizing speech the government feels is inaccurate (and costs money to respond to) is only going to result in less information being spread. "Fake news" laws tend to do collateral damage to non-fake news reporting as reporters in the middle of unfolding events opt to self-censor, rather than run the risk of being prosecuted. This won't withstand a Constitutional challenge, but until the law is blocked, everyone in Puerto Rico will have to make do with a little less First Amendment.
FREE MARKETS
Do you make more money now than you did 10 years ago? The average answer to that depends on where you live, according to a new analysis from the Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse (TRAC) at Syracuse University. Using IRS data, TRAC found that "some counties saw a doubling of average adjusted gross incomes while taxpayers in other counties experienced" sharped decreases:
For the U.S. as a whole, the average adjusted gross income (AGI) reported on a return grew by $16,735, from $55,361 for returns filed during 2008 to $72,096 for those filed in 2018. This translates into a growth rate, not adjusting for inflation, of 30.2 percent.
Individual counties, however, often experienced quite different changes during this same period. The range in dollar change in a county's respective AGI was as high as $123,096 all the way down to a decline in AGI of -$71,059. In fact, 69 out of the 3,146 counties in the nation experienced a decline in reported AGI. The change in percentage terms in AGI ranged from a low of -93.7 percent to an increase of 290.4 percent…
More here.
QUICK HITS
- If states don't start taking measures to reduce the spread of COVID-19 in prisons and jails, "worst-case model estimates predict that almost two-thirds of hospital beds in Louisiana (8,000 of 12,000) and Georgia (14,000 of 23,000), two-fifths in California (28,000 of 65,000), and more than three-quarters in the most vulnerable state, Arkansas (7,000 of 9,000), will be required by prisoners between 14 and 22 days from now," reports The Appeal.
- "It's not the politicians who have the power to reopen America, or at least the parts that are now closed. It's individuals, families, businesses, and religious congregations," writes Ira Stoll.
- Relatedly, from the Cato Institute's David Boaz: Data shows Americans are "mostly staying home because we decided to—we as individuals, and businesses, and civil society."
- For COVID-19 patients, "the chronic condition with the strongest association with critical illness was obesity," according to a new draft paper.
- How China corrupted the World Health Organization's response to COVID-19.
- New York has made wearing masks in public mandatory:
#BREAKING: I am issuing an Executive Order today that all people MUST wear a mask or face covering in public in situations where social distancing is not possible.
— Archive: Governor Andrew Cuomo (@NYGovCuomo) April 15, 2020
- The Small Business Administration has granted most of the $338 billion set aside for Paycheck Protection Program loans for small businesses.
- A Facebook post from Maryland's Taneytown Police Department reminded the community to "please remember to put pants on before leaving the house to check your mailbox. You know who you are. This is your final warning."
- A Liberty University student is suing the school for its response to COVID-19, alleging that Liberty U. President Jerry Falwell only kept it "open" so as not to have to refund student fees for housing, meals, and amenities. "The university's statement that it is 'open' is an illusion being put forth to try to keep money that should be returned to students and their families," the lawsuit says.
- Against the California model of categorizing independent contractors.
- "If we are going to have 60,000 deaths with people not leaving their homes for more than a month, the number of deaths obviously would have been higher—much higher—if everyone had gone about business as usual," writes Rich Lowry in "The Absurd Case Against the Coronavirus Lockdown."
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Protesters take over streets around Michigan State Capitol.
The Constitution isn't a mass murder pact!
Hello.
Funny how Whitmore is nothing more than a dumbass dictator.
You would think politicians would be wise to think 'eh, maybe I won't double down and add more angst by pretending I'm a great leader issuing retard EO's and the like.'
Nope.
This is how they role.
These aren't leaders. They're just sheep who managed to get to the podium to rule over other sheep.
I tend to role as a ranged weapon rogue. I really enjoyed playing a grenadier, an alchemist archetype, under Pathfinder's ruleset.
I meant it in that way.
It's role play for them.
But roll is more grammarly. Lol.
So "I meant to do that"
looked like quite a few brought guns yesterday. It's safe to say this will escalate if she doesn't back down.
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Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer said in a TV interview afterward that "this is the kind of behavior that extends the needs for stay-at-home orders."
And you want to be my running mate. -Joe Biden
Holy Shit! This is ENB's "analysis"?
"The whole mess highlights the sadly symbiotic relationship between authorities taking things too far and people (some reasonably and strategically, some carelessly and imprudently) reacting in ways that provoke more draconian policies."
Hey ENB, please go read some treatises on liberty. Exercising your right to assemble does not "Provoke" anything.
Provoke? ENB is talking like the abused partner in an abusive relationship.
Yeah, but to be fair, ENB is in a tough spot here. On the one hand, basic liberties like freedom of speech are in question. But on the other hand, it is ICKY conservatives who are trying to exercise those liberties, and it is undermining a strong liberal governor. It must be very confusing.
Maybe I can help ENB understand the problem by switching things up here:
Pimp: Sweety, get your ass out on the corner, now!
Sex Worker: But Johnny, I'm not feeling so well and you didn't pay me for last week.
*Pimp Slaps Sex Worker*
Pimp: Get your ass out on the corner, now!
Sex Worker: Please, Johnny, stop hitting me. It's so cold out. Please!
Pimp: Why do you defy me, baby?! You are getting me angry, and the other girls don't like it when I'm Angry. I'm here to protect you, but I can't do that if you don't obey! STOP CRYING, DAMNIT!
ENB: The whole mess highlights the sadly symbiotic relationship between Pimps taking things too far and people (some reasonably and strategically, some carelessly and imprudently) reacting in ways that provoke more draconian punishments.
Once the principle expands beyond the uterus, her proud feminism doesn't know what to say.
Who am I kidding. It knows exactly what to say.
ENB is severely fooling herself (because she's still getting paid. She can talk about the plight of porn stars wanting an EI while the economy fizzles and burns and still collect a pay check) if she thinks people who will take to the streets are acting imprudently.
They're actually making a rational calculus. This pandemic is being waaaayyyy over blown.
As a business owner myself, if this persists, I find myself potentially being the bourgeoisie we read about in the history books.
People who are siding with the government on the shut down are fools.
I've been a micro business owner for 30 years and have failed twice so far. In both cases the failures were the result of federal government policy. But as they say, every business failure is a failure of management. Shoulda seen it coming and adjusted. Shoulda invested in new technology. Shoulda cut operating costs. Shoulda invested in aggressive sales. Etc. If the other guy survived and you failed it's your own damn fault. As a general rule I still believe all of that. But this time is different. I'm facing another possible business failure not because of anything I had any control over. I may end up bankrupt because government shut down the whole fucking economy.
Well, actually, it often does provoke a response. But enduring the response is with it for the sake of liberty.
"this is the kind of behavior that extends the needs for stay-at-home orders."
The governor called a timeout and sent them to sit in the corner away from their playmates.
You want something to cry about? I’ll give you something to cry about!
After Cuomo and Newsom got such good press coverage for being draconian and Cuomo even talking about a future presidential run I feel like Whitmer felt she was going to be overlooked if she too wasn’t draconian. I’m sure every decision she has made in the recent weeks has been with an eye on being VP
A new law makes it a crime "to transmit or allow the transmission" of any "false information with the intention of creating confusion, panic, or public hysteria, with regards to any proclamation or executive order declaring an emergency, disaster or curfew."
The blue check twitterati better steer clear of our 51st state.
This translates into a growth rate, not adjusting for inflation, of 30.2 percent.
BUT THE PANDEMIC PROVED IT WAS ALL FALSE.
Such a question is of course inimical to human decency. And yet we must consider that Xi Jinping has produced the greatest program of ethnic cleansing in the world today. He has curtailed freedoms in China severely and is the father of the panopticon state. His incessant military buildup threatens neighbors while using economic and other subversive means to erode the sovereignty of countries around the world. We should not assume it was beyond his imagining to withhold a degree of support from the international community to ensure that China would not suffer alone.
Strong evidence supports this idea. Hearing the World Health Organization (WHO) repeat and praise the Party line while giving short shrift to health advice until quite recently has alarmed many. Seeing Beijing sell defective wares and claim it as humanitarian aid has angered many more. Spreading disinformation during the crisis and hinting at using life-saving goods for leverage (original here) — while denying even the faintest hint of wrongdoing — I suspect have ruined China’s reputation for some time to come. In short, China’s good offices have been reserved almost entirely for burnishing its image at the world’s expense, while calling it “the greatest kindness and good deeds.”
None of this can prove whether or when Xi made a deliberate decision to withhold information in order to imperil others. However, as a long-time student and admirer of China, it is with great sadness I must concede that such a state — and its increasingly paranoid leader — might very well provide less than full cooperation to stem the pandemic of the century in the crass pursuit of its own interests. This may constitute biological warfare. But even if it doesn’t Xi should be brought to account for his other crimes against humanity.
https://hotair.com/archives/allahpundit/2020/04/15/hmmm-36-boston-homeless-shelter-tested-positive-covid-19-vast-majority-without-symptoms/
Hmmm: 36% At Boston Homeless Shelter Tested Positive For COVID-19, Vast Majority Without Symptoms
They aren’t obese.
Is meth the miracle cure for COVID patients?
You'd be surprised? metabolic damage and a fucked up diet can cause people to carry adipose while not well nourished.
Roger Gracie isn't obese. He is a world class athlete, 38 years old, and he was laid out for two weeks by coronavirus.
But he ain’t dead.
... "Let's say that where we're going it's not a reopening, in that we are going to reopen what was. We are going to a different place, and we should go to a different place, and we should go to a better place. If we don't learn the lessons from this situation, that all of this will have been in vain," Cuomo said.
"So we're going to a different place, which is a new normal. We talk about the new normal. We've been talking about the new normal for years. We are going to have a new normal in public health. By the way, the way we have a new normal in an environment, the new normal in economics, a new normal in civil rights, a new normal and social justice, right? This is the way of the world now," he said.
"We're moving to a new place, and we are moving to a challenging place, but also potentially better place," Cuomo said...
What the fuck kind of Fidel Castro/Pol Pot/Mao Tse-Dong/Bernie Sanders/Lord Garth bullshit is that? Excuse me but my uncle didn't get cut in half by a Japanese machine gun on Saipan nor my mother survive 13 months at the hands of your fellow travelers the National Socialists to bequeath this for me. If you think I'm going to willingly, cheerfully stick my head in that noose, you've got another thing coming, pal.
Go to Hell.
There is a reason why everyone hasn't died from one of these viruses. In the same way that they mutate from something that affects animals but is harmless to humans into something that is deadly to humans, they eventually mutate back into something if not harmless less deadly. They don't just magically stop mutating when they mutate into the deadly to humans form. So, this virus will like SARS and every other virus before it mutate into something less deadly and fade away in the coming months. This isn't polio or small pox or some other great plague of humanity in the past. It is a single event.
That was one of the oddest arguments I’ve heard anyone make. The COVID-19 virus has had minor mutations, but it is not prone to regularly mutate into another virulent form the way influenza does.
However, mutation doesn’t make the current, virulent strains just go away.
No it doesn't. But those strains do eventually go away on their own. If they didn't, the human race would have died out before it ever left Africa.
What even are you talking about, John. Did you mean to say there will eventually be herd immunity?
If the viruses rate of mutation is fast enough and most viral mutations make the virus less pathogenic for the host, then it's certainly possible that a pathogenic virus may mutate to a far less pathogenic version, long before herd immunity is established in a given population.
Alternately, this bug may not be as lethal as was originally feared. Or there are already multiple strains of the bug, and only one is really bad on old people and fatties. A lot of ways to look at this.
It does look like this virus is a lot less lethal than the 3-10 percent CFR we were all told would result, if we keep finding clusters where 10-35 percent of people have antibodies to the virus, yet never went to the doc.
Great news.
This virus already is not that lethal to a large portion of the population. That's why it was able to spread so fast. That's what makes this virus so dangerous. SARS was too deadly and that's why it didn't spread as far.
How is it so dangerous if it isn’t deadly?
Global warming.
It IS deadly to some people. Duh. 33,000 dead.
This virus already is not that lethal to a large portion of the population.
That would tend to indicate it is not dangerous.
I think that’s what he actually means when he says that the strains will eventually go away.
Maybe maybe not. All know is they've completely fucked us into a depression. Lost decade at least.
Actually, if you look at, say, the S&P 500 index, about a year’s growth in value. The damage (so far) is not as severe as some of the headlines make it sound.
We are not in a depression yet, and if we “open up” the economy in a timely manner some of the damage can be reversed, as there was nothing fundamentally wrong with the business models of many of the affected businesses other than depending on close social interaction to conduct business.
The cruise ship industry, on the other hand, may be permanently fucked. And Boeing, specifically, may be fucked, but they had deep problems before the pandemic came along.
US Government will never let boeing fail.
You may be right about that.
Problem is - 'they' is currently being seen by almost everyone as simply their preexisting preferred flavor of DeRp. Like that is actually a solution to anything rather than the main reason our response has been so predictably incompetent everywhere and by everyone in charge of anything.
There are other places where entire countries have responded competently. I don't know of a single STATE here that has responded competently. 50 states plus a fed - all incompetent. And the message people take from that is - it's the other DeRp that's the problem, our DeRp is fine? WTF!
A virus's job (like any biological organism) is to survive and duplicate, not kill people. Which of course is one of the things most idiots don't grasp at all- they see this virus as some sort of malevolent being that wants to murder them and their babies, and will keep mutating until it is sufficiently deadly to satisfy its blood lust. Um, no. This thing actually sucks at being a virus because even as mild as it is, it kills enough people in ways that are different enough from run of the mill flu viruses that it has attracted attention- not what a virus wants. Now the entire world is focused on destroying it. The best way for it to survive is to become a lot more incognito, pronto. Of course the virus doesn't know this, but that is just where evolutionary pressures lead it.
There certainly is no advantage to the virus in becoming MORE deadly. In the past there may have been, before germ theory and accompanying improved sanitation, dead bodies or close contact necessary to care for the dying may have been a very effective means for an infection to transmit itself. Thus viruses or bacterial infections resulting in death may have been much more effective. But not any longer, in the developed world at least. These days, an infection can generally be either widespread or deadly, but it's hard to be both.
Is Fredo Cuomo aware that he's eligible for 1 (one) free boat ride? Available now?
Preach!
Watched "The Enemies Within" recently.
Made me sick.
Used to think the right wing calling some democrats Socialists was just fear mongering.
Not any more.
A person, political organization, group, etc. who supports Socialist/Communist ideology shouldn't be allowed to participate in our political system! They're the enemy to our freedoms!
How the hell do we allow so much business with them? Now they're rich and buying our country from underneath us.
They need to be outed!
Socialist/Communist political groups need to be outed!
https://thediplomat.com/2020/04/did-xi-jinping-deliberately-sicken-the-world/
Strong evidence supports this idea. Hearing the World Health Organization (WHO) repeat and praise the Party line while giving short shrift to health advice until quite recently has alarmed many. Seeing Beijing sell defective wares and claim it as humanitarian aid has angered many more. Spreading disinformation during the crisis and hinting at using life-saving goods for leverage (original here) — while denying even the faintest hint of wrongdoing — I suspect have ruined China’s reputation for some time to come. In short, China’s good offices have been reserved almost entirely for burnishing its image at the world’s expense, while calling it “the greatest kindness and good deeds.”
None of this can prove whether or when Xi made a deliberate decision to withhold information in order to imperil others. However, as a long-time student and admirer of China, it is with great sadness I must concede that such a state — and its increasingly paranoid leader — might very well provide less than full cooperation to stem the pandemic of the century in the crass pursuit of its own interests. This may constitute biological warfare. But even if it doesn’t Xi should be brought to account for his other crimes against humanity.
I am going to say yes he did. This stuff escaped from a Chinese lab and the paranoid stupid bastards decided to make the best of it by ensuring the rest of the world was damaged to the greatest extent possible.
Occam’s razor would say it evolved naturally in bats or pangolins or something, but you apparently need to believe in some conspiracy theory about it having been created in a Chinese lab.
Investigated in a Chinese lab - the lab was the closest source of the bats, they don't live in the area naturally.
Occam's razor doesn't mean that everything must be an act of God you fucking dumb ass. It means don't attribute malice where negligence will suffice. So, saying that the virus got out of the lab by accident is consistent with Occam's razor. People like you need to be banned from using terms like Occam's razor because you are not bright enough to understand what they mean.
Meanwhile, The Washington Post reported that embassy officials in January 2018 alerted U.S. officials of serious problems in the lab which was conducting risky research on bats, the very source of COVIT-19. The United Kingdom has issued a statement that they are seriously considering the lab as a possible source.
This started in the same city where the Chinese were conducting bioweapons research on these sorts of viruses. And in 2018, the State Department had worried about the safety of these labs and the potential for something to get lose. Now two years later, cornona virus pandemic starts in the city where this lab is located.
Only someone as fucking stupid as you are could think suspecting that the virus came from the lab and that the fears expressed in 2018 were true is a "conspiracy theory". You are a contemptibly stupid person.
I think you swapped Hanlon for Occam. Occam is "The solution which requires the least assumptions is most likely the correct one" or often phrased "the simplest solution is most often correct".
But in this case, that doesn't necessarily mean "It happened at a wet market". If it is true that these bats aren't used at the wet market, and that among the first cases of the virus were people who never visited the market, and that research papers from the lab were showing that the lab was working with this virus- well then Occam's razor may very likely lead one to believe that it came from a lab.
Agreed, I was merely clarifying definitions. My general theory is we should combine the two and assume someone did something dumb, either not properly taking protocols or stacking stressed sick mammals in cages.
The lack of the bat at the market, or in the area suggests it was either someone's pet? and that's a thing (I have no idea) or came from an entirely different source, the lab being one very real possibility.
What I strongly doubt: this was a bio-engineered bug, or an intentional release.
It wouldn’t surprise me if the lab was selling its finished produce to the market.
Well argued. I stand corrected.
saying that the virus got out of the lab by accident is consistent with Occam’s razor.
No it isn't. And further there is zero - not ONE BIT - evidence that there has been any back-and-forth behind the scenes about CCP or PLA 'worries' about how they are going to contain or cover up said accident. IOW - not only does this virus supposedly 'escape' from a max security lab but no one in charge of or associated with that lab or any bioweapons program who knows or cares or gives a damn that it escaped.
Except apparently for some conspiracists halfway around the world who don't actually present any evidence either - just the usual conspiracist vague imaginings with the absence of evidence of conspiracy being merely the proof of how deviously successful the conspiracy is.
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2007/09/reports-blame-lab-foot-and-mouth-fiasco
There’s precedent. And in countries that are more stringent on safety than China too. It’s also previously happened in the US.
It's not that far of a stretch, given what we know about how communist governments do busines in genral, that the escape of the virus could be due to an accidental exposure that went unreported. Then, when it was eventually discovered, there was a lot of scrambling, face saving, blame shifting, and down playing at low levels, and then further scrambling, face saving and blame shifting on up the chain.
But that's the point. There is no evidence at all that any downplaying in Dec was anything other than bureaucratic and public health incompetence in Hubei province itself. That lab has nothing to do with Hubei except that's the location. It's entirely a CCP and PLA thing. Which means if it was an 'escape' the coverup would have occurred from the top-down - from Beijing - not from the bureaucratic 'middle'/provincial down.
Instead the timeline - confirmed by both documents and 'chatter' - is that the first any 'central' authority even knows about this unknown virus/pneumonia is Dec30. And from then on, the actions/responses are quite fast - and the only 'coverup' by Beijing is domestic. The sort of PR bullshit that is not a conspiracy at all and should be familiar to every freaking American who gets continually lied to by this or that flavor of DeRp when they want to pretend 'everything is under control. Don't worry. Move along now. Stocks look really cheap here. Great economy we've got.'
Bullshit, JFree. This likely didn't have a natural origin.
Read this: https://harvardtothebighouse.com/2020/01/31/logistical-and-technical-analysis-of-the-origins-of-the-wuhan-coronavirus-2019-ncov/
And get back to me. It's concise, laden with links and cites, and other than his weird assertion about the Swine Flu virus, lays a convincing foundation for arguing this virus came out of one of the labs there. As well as a possible explanation for some of the short base segments that were analogous to HIV base segments: a potential path to an HIV vaccine is to core out a coronavirus, and use it to carry the antigens you want to sensitize the body against.
Or don't. Unlike, e.g., sevo, I think you're actually worth the time to discuss this with.
And now that I've reread this, "bullshit" is too strong.
I just disagree with you, is all.
I haven't looked at all the links but only three of them seem specific to a possible 'cover-up' of an accident. One (linked via a tweet?) - a Jan2 memo from the Wuhan lab director to lab staff telling them not to post on social/personal media or to, basically, 'outsiders'. Given the date - post Dec30 and that he himself is referring to orders from the known 'central' Dec30 recipient, there is a simpler explanation. This is a bureaucracy and I'm your boss and everything goes through me. Geddit?! Has nothing to do with an 'accident' that would have occurred more than a month before. One (from Feb14) - is something that purports to directly admit that its lab engineered. 'But has been erased'. Well not really. The report is in fact at that link and apparently says there are only three explanations - either the bats flew to the wet market on their own, there is some intermediary host but since it is unknown it is unlikely, or it was engineered in a lab. Honestly, if that constitutes 'academic research' in China well they need bigger spliffs. I had chicken soup last night. I'm certain the chicken didn't hop into the crockpot and I'm reasonably certain that it didn't wander into the supermarket to be butchered either. So therefore I didn't actually eat chicken? But maybe Frankenchicken? Third, a link to an Asian news article that purports (but no second link to the original source) to have info re a mid-Feb directive from Beijing to all labs and research institutes that all protection and decontamination procedures must be beefed up. Without an actual link to that directive, I don't accept the media weasel words re 'tacit' or 'allusion'. The simplest explanation - given that timing - is that that was both the peak of their wave and the moment when samples/etc would start to come from different areas since that was when they sent tens of thousands of med staff from the rest of China to Hubei. I don't see why that has anything to do with Nov. It has to do with Feb. aka things are confused now but they are about to get more confusing. Don't get sloppy. There are other links but I believe they conflate three very different issues - none of which are linked to any 'accident' at all except via breathless possibilities of 'might have happened': 1)the military bioweapons research at that facility - something 'engineered' 2)the pandemic research - something 'discovered' - but all previously published and nothing 'covered up' 3)a generic concern about 'gain of function' research which I don't really understand but also don't see anything re an 'accident' there
I swear that post had paragraph breaks. Oh well
No, Occam's Razor would not suggest a natural host, when the bat species host in question did not exist within 500 kilometers of the epidemic center, unless you count the specimens sitting in cages in those virology labs. Further, the chain for the 'natural transmission' path requires a third species---the pangolins---for the bug to infect, before it infected humans.
Contrast that with a lab whose researchers performed published research over many years on the types of viruses at issue in this pandemic. Said research including modifying the virus to enable it to bond with human tissue cell receptors. Which was a prospect so terrifying, US grants were prohibited from funding research of this nature. Immediately after the termination of this funding, China started building its first publicly known BSL-IV lab. Finally, combine the above with the well-documented Chinese lack of concern for others---among other things, dropping onto rural villages, space rocket 1st stages filled with incredibly toxic, hyperbolic gasses, is a documented thing---and overall shitty industrial QA and QC, and a simple laboratory fuckup is far more likely. A half assed attempt to both contain the outbreak, as well as cover up vital details to health authorities like the WHO, then followed.
One scenario requires multiple trans-species leaps by a virus, over comparatively vast distances. The other requires that China do typically Chinese stuff. Like the Russians with Chernobyl. No conspiracy, no weapon development, just a fuckup, and a lot of bad attempts to lie about it.
"Hypergolic", but still, well put.
Damn it. I know I wrote it correctly too. Friggin autocorrect.
The cellphone videos of villagers standing around as this 70 foot long hunk of metal falls out of the sky, are absolutely surreal. Filled with nitrogen tetraoxide and unsymmetrical hydrazine. You can't go near that shit without SCBA and a chemical warfare suit, and the Chinese think nothing of dropping stages filled with those residues on rural people.
My kids are being taught that in socialist/communist societies, individuals are considered merely production machines, and if an individual machine's production is minimal, or if it's interchangeable with another, there's no reason for the State to continue that machine's existence.
Communism is vile.
Chinese rocket disaster https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intelsat_708
Yeah, that was an accident. A spectacular one, which pretty much incinerated those villages, as well as the guest workers hotel, IIRC.
Dropping toxic first stages on the local countryside is something done on purpose.
Cite please?
For which? The first stages being dropped on rural areas? That's unavoidable if they insist on launching rockets from the middle of their country, like at the Xichang Satellite Launch Center (google maps location here: https://maps.google.com/maps?ll=28.246017,102.026556&q=28.246017,102.026556), and launch them to the East in any way or form. Maybe, they can launch to the North for a polar orbit, and not hit people with the first stage? Chengdu isn't that far to the east, but it is to the east, and I don't see a lot of towns west of there. The US, Japan, the ESA, hell, even the Norks, launch over water for a reason. Russia/Kazakhstan's got either a bunch of tundra (Plesetsk) or desertifying steppe (Baikonur) for their hardware to drop to. I have no idea why they didn't just stick the thing on the S. China Sea or Hainan Island.
You were talking about cellphone videos. I'd like to see the evidence.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=PbFOS29vAeQ
Was the one I saw.
What does Occams Razor say about two virology labs within walking distance of the infamous Wet Market doing research on bats and coronavirus
What would China get out of deliberately releasing this virus? Do you think China is benefiting from this? Everyone is rethinking their business relationships with China.
What did Hitler get out of invading Russia? You can't always attribute rationality to murderous and paranoid governments.
We know the stuff got loose and we know China lied about it. We know that they also sent people overseas knowing that it would further the spread of it. Is it not possible that China realized it was going to get lose in China and there was no way to stop it? Once they understood that, they had two choices; be honest and watch the rest of the world shut down their borders and contain the spread of the disease and the resulting damage to China or lie and try to spread it to the rest of the world so that everyone is equally or more harmed and China is not left as a disadvantage.
I think it is a pretty good guess that government as evil as China took the second option. And once the virus was lose in China, there is no stopping the damage to China's reputation and the desire to cut ties with them. Spreading it to the rest of the world doesn't make that any worse.
Hitler thought he would easily win in Russia.
There is no doubt that Chine covered up the breakout and downplayed it for way too long. But that they deliberately spread so they wouldn't be the only ones to suffer? That makes no sense to me. First of all, they wouldn't have to do that. By the time they realized how bad it was, it had already spread. There were thousands and thousands of Chinese working in Iran and Italy. I don't know why you guys always jump to conspiracies in everything.
Apparently, John just really needs this to have a Chinese conspiracy angle.
I'm going with 'A virus break out, eh? Let's see where this goes' as being plausible.
Thats probably because you're a fucking dimwit, eunuch, quick to assume everyone who isn't leftist is racist, then deny the Chinese government could possibly act with malice.
If you had an ounce of capability or inherent value, you could be a useful idiot.
As it is, you are existentially useless
There were thousands and thousands of Chinese working in Iran and Italy. I don’t know why you guys always jump to conspiracies in everything.
Yes and China let thousands of them return home for Chinese new year and then go back to Italy and those other places. And China also put out a message in Italy that staying away from Chinese people was racist and everyone should hug a Chinese person.
You seem to not understand the facts here. Yeah, there were Chinese in Italy. They wouldn't have spread the virus if China had acted responsibly and not allowed them to come home and return during Chinese New Year.
China also shut down travel between Wuhan and the rest of China while keeping open travel between Wuhan and the rest of the world.
What would china gain from silencing doctors, destroying research, refusing to hand over live samples, and preventing CDC researchers from traveling to wuhan.
It's just unpossible that the same country ethnically cleansing itself if uighers would be a bad world citizen!
And nothing will be done.
The TDS combined with the Democrats never ever siding with Trump with any measures against China because they don't want him to win will ensure this. This is why come November America MUST give Trump a landslide if you want a serious message sent to China.
They basically declared war on the West.
And forget Europe. Russia and China know they're cucks.
The EU couldn't fight their way out of a wet paper bag, if they even found their balls in the first place. Our military is the main reason they pretend to respect us, because we're their attack dog and shield against Russia.
The funny thing about this, though, is that whether the virus came out of a wet market, or escaped from a lab (and yes, it's rather idiotic to have a disease research lab -- whether it researches natural diseases, or researches biowarfare -- in a dense population center -- and Wuhan had both), I don't care. People can sometimes be stupid, but I can forgive stupid mistakes.
What the Chinese government did after the infection got a foothold, however, angers me much, much more. They were more than just negligent: they tried to cover things up, and they purposely allowed the disease to spread.
It's for this reason that we need to cut off ties from China, as much as we are able.
Fuck Michigan. They voted in a governor who needs to commit ritual suicide.
Fuck Cuomo. God damned dago wop bastard.
Sucks about prisoners. Maybe this will bring about prison reform, but who are we kidding?
Given the recent record of “worst case scenario “ predictions, I wouldn’t worry too much about the prisoners.
You realize some of us in Michigan didn’t vote for her right? So fuck you too.
Very much this. And furthermore, those who *did* vote for her (putting aside those who were already dead at the time -- they didn't have much choice), there were undoubtedly many who voted for her because they thought the other option was worse. And who knows? Perhaps the other option would have been just as bad!
Sometimes I think it's a mistake to think of Governor or President as Governor/President So-and-So. I think we would be better off just referring to them as Mr/Ms Governor, or The Governor, and only talk about the personality before and after they leave office. In the meantime, we should blame excesses on the Office, rather than the Person -- and that we can't let The Governor or The President do a certain thing, because it's not something that the Official should be doing.
It's not a Party thing, it's not a Personal thing, it's a Power thing. Sure, the Governor/President needs some power to limit the spread of a pandemic. However, the Governor/President also needs some limits to that power, as well. And it doesn't matter who voted for that person, or when, or even how that person got into power.
It's not inconceivable, for example, that President Trump and Vice President Pence will die in a car crash tomorrow, and now we're stuck with President Pelosi, whether we voted for her or not -- and in this case, only 1/435 of the nation voted her into public office, and only 218 or so people voted her into the succession of the Presidency, and a (hopefully) random freak accident thrusted her into the Presidency, so I'm going to be darn sure I want as many limits to her power as possible before she's sworn in, regardless of how popular her predecessors may have been!
https://amgreatness.com/2020/04/15/leftist-oligarchs-use-pandemic-to-attack-trump/
Because when Democratic lobbyists and liberal think tanks successfully pushed for donor disclosure and transparency, they were making a simple and accurate calculation: conservative donors are more likely to be harassed than liberal donors.
This disparity has played out for years and is worse now more than ever.
If an individual super donor is audacious enough to contribute big bucks to a campaign or cause that threatens the interests of public-sector unions, or any other liberal power center from the plaintiff’s bar to the environmentalist lobby to the identity politics industry—much less the excommunicable sin of questioning “free trade” and “open borders”—they will become victims of relentless and professionally choreographed harassment. Their children will be harassed at school. Busloads of pumped-up activists will descend on their front lawns. Their businesses will be picketed and boycotted. Their vendors and their customers will be threatened. Sometimes this harassment will extend to vandalism and violence. This is a fact of life for conservative donors.
It is not a fact of life for liberal Democratic donors. But these billionaires are the ones who have decided to destroy Trump, not because of his pugnacious disposition, but because of his economic nationalism. Trump’s policies, not his disposition, are helping ordinary working families in America; but these same policies threaten the financial interests of these billionaires. Their business deals with China are threatened. Their insanely profitable climate change scams are threatened. Their ability to import cheap labor and export jobs is threatened.
President Trump, and the movement he’s catalyzed, is an existential threat to globalist billionaires who view this nation the way a Romneyesque corporate raider would view a target company: load it up with debt, replace the workers with cheap substitutes, sell off the assets, take out all the cash as dividends and management bonuses, then fire everyone, declare bankruptcy and walk away with wheelbarrows filled with loot.
Donors to Democratic super PACs should understand that an open secret is not a secret. Everyone knows who is paying for all of this. These Democratic super PAC donors are often the same individuals who own and control and dominate online and offline media, finance, and entertainment. These individuals are the source of money for these despicable ads. These Democratic super donors are the top of the pyramid, with the bottom being Antifa thugs, union bosses, and well-paid ballot-harvesting operatives.
These donors fund a Democratic Party that is creating the up-down coalition and destroying the middle class. While they try to make us blame the president, the mega businesses they invest in are using this crisis to break the will and the solvency of small, independent business owners. It is these American billionaires who implicitly collude with Chinese oligarchs, with whom they have more in common than ordinary Americans, to destroy this nation.
https://amgreatness.com/2020/04/15/are-we-witnessing-a-targeted-hit-against-trump-voters/
The debate about “reopening the economy” is a phony debate.
It’s phony because “the economy” isn’t shut down. Far from it. Walmart is still open. Dollar General is open. Amazon is open. Alibaba is open.
It just so happens that the big-box mass merchandisers and online retailers responsible for flooding our country with crap from Communist China are open.
Meanwhile, other, very specific parts of the country are shut down.
Family-owned shops and workshops, the backbone of America, are closed. Fast-food franchises remain open—drive-through windows are operating at full tilt—but independently owned restaurants are shuttered or trying to survive at diminished capacity doing takeout only.
Conveniently, if not coincidentally, small-business owners make up an important segment of Trump’s base. Like the president, they have signed the front of a paycheck, experienced the brunt of the well-meaning administrative state, and endured the predations of giant corporations and subsidized Chinese competition. That’s why they love President Trump–he understands what they go through.
While these largely family-owned, small and medium-sized enterprises are laying off workers by the millions, Amazon and Walmart are hiring.
In the energy industry, the big guys can weather the storm while small, independent producers are getting crushed as oil prices fall off the cliff along with demand.
Facebook, Twitter, Google, Zoom and other giant internet overlords are seeing more traffic than ever as people are locked in and white-collar professionals work from home.
These are the same people in Silicon Valley who tilt hard to the left and censor anyone who strays from the official “we are all going to die” pandemic narrative.
Twitter gives a soapbox to Chinese Communist Party propagandists suggesting the U.S. Army hatched the coronavirus but bans Laura Ingraham for daring to suggest an FDA-approved drug could offer hope to the stricken.
Who else isn’t shut down?
Government employees continue to draw paychecks, even those deemed “nonessential.”
Let us pause for a moment to consider just how ridiculous this is: Show me a private business that pays a “nonessential” employee even in the best of times. In the real world, outside of government, if you’re not essential you’re not on the payroll (unless you’re married to the boss’s daughter).
The “creative class” of the coastal elites, academics, media and the white-collar professionals of the urban centers remain employed—and paid—while blue-collar Americans are furloughed, laid off, and deemed “nonessential.”
There’s a certain symmetry to this.
Americans who work with their hands and live outside the big blue cities are considered “nonessential.” Families who own their businesses, or work for a family business rather than depend on the government or a global corporation for their livelihoods are considered “nonessential.” People who want to go to church rather than an abortion clinic are considered “nonessential.”
Before these Americans were called “nonessential” they were called “deplorable.”
Awesome.
[slow clap]
Yes, it's all a nefarious plot! Right. Blue collar workers and small businesses are getting screwed because blue collar workers and small businesses always get screwed in a crisis.
blue collar workers and small businesses always get screwed in a crisis.
Hurricanes don't destroy Walmarts?
They do, but it doesn't hurt Walmart as a company that much, because they have good insurance, reserves, and many other stores that continue to generate revenue.
Good to see your free mind working so well today. Implicit trust in government institutions is the only way to true liberty.
They are.
Hello.
Anecdotally, in my circle of friends, there are ten of us. Eight are basically getting a paid vacation because they work for the government or corporations. They can ride this out.
Two of us fall under 'family business' and are getting reamed. We can't ride this out indefinitely.
It's a pretty obvious observation to make across the continent.
Well said.
Government employees continue to draw paychecks, even those deemed “nonessential.”
Even those placed on administrative leave because they aren't essential enough to work on site, but can't work from home.
Screwing over the middle class is hardly a left/right issue. And last I checked, GOP is largely at the helm this go around.
And small business owners do not like Trump. The SBA programs were horribly mismanaged, and Trump keeps lying about them. "No glitches" my ass.
Last time I checked the most severe lockdowns were all in blue states or states with blue governers.
95% of the american populace is under lockdown orders currently. That's a whole lotta blue states.
that's a very good way to put it.
Leftists are vicious assholes who will do anything to punish people for having the wrong politics. Their opponents tend to be normal people and not do that. This is why leftists win even thought their politics are never very popular.
QOTD, paraphrased: People say conservatives don't protest because they have jobs to go to. They don't have jobs now, do they?
Conservatives are fat, dumb, and happy and just are not angry enough to be the kind of asshole necessary to deal with leftists. At some point that might change. The question is whether it changes before it is too late to matter.
The is that old saying about the Devil's greatest trick was to convince everyone he doesn't exist. The entire history of leftism is an example of that. Time and again otherwise well meaning people who should know better convince themselves that leftists don't really mean what they say and can be reasoned with. And whenever leftists gain power, they always turn out to be exactly what their worst critics and the people who were dismissed as cranks and kooks by all of the "right thinking people" said they were.
National media ad budgets come from big corps, major media conglomerates want/need the Chinese market for the $$.
Follow the money, even without the possibility of direct bribes to 'reporters'.
I think we're hitting that point, or getting close.
WTF. In this very comment section, you Trump supporters demonstrate daily that you cannot tolerate anyone contradicting your world view without immediately going to swearing, name calling, hanging up on people, and (on Nardz’ part, especially) making empty threats of violence.
In this very comment section, you... demonstrate daily that you cannot tolerate anyone contradicting your world view without immediately going to... name calling,
constitutionschmonstitution1789
No, people can't tolerate stupidity. Everyone hates you because you are a moron. Lots of people criticize Trump on here and their points are debated and often accepted. Yours are not because you are stupid and dishonest Jeff. Stop pretending that people can't stand you because you don't like Trump. They don't like you because you are an ignorant asshole.
So you picked out that it was Jeff immediately too then.
That's idiotic.
You know how you can tell when it's chemjeff posting? He posts under the name chemjeff. It's really not that hard.
No, they aren’t accepted. I tried politely debating here before and all you Trump supporters acted like assholes.
So, now, I behave just as you did. You all created me. Fuckers.
You have always been a disingenuous hack. The mask was fully ripped off when you opposed any reform to obamacare and completely unsupported accusations against kavanaugh.
You don't even know who I am, you idiot.
BTW, since you believe in "anything for freedom" you fully support trump compelling all of the states to open up, right? I mean DACA was all about "freedom" and this impacts far more ppl.
But no, instead you start clutching your pearls over "unnecessary deaths." But of course that doesn't include, say, a nurder committed by one of those "nonviolent" offenders we had to release from prison because a model said they were all going to die.
I'm not even sure who you are talking to. You are attributing all kinds of things to me that I never said.
Oh, is this the bullshit where you just lump together things that De Op, Jeff, and I say, and assume we are all "sock puppets" of each other. That destroys any possibility of actual conversation.
Bullshit. Shortly after creating this account I tried to have an honest debate with you about immigration and it turned into you using your normal dishonest bullshit and claims of xenophobia.
You really should do some self reflection about why so many people here call you dishonest.
You don't even know who I am, so how can you claim past conversations with me.
So, now, I behave just as you did. You all created me. Fuckers.
Take some personal responsibility for once in your life.
The concept of personal responsibility is anathema to leftism, unless it can be cast as misplaced blame on someone else
I'm not a leftist, you fuckhead.
And you are one of the worst offenders. You regularly lose your temper and personally threaten other commenters. Empty threats, but uncool.
You don't appear to know what the term "threat" means. But I do find it interesting that you're so insecure that you can't own up to your beliefs. It makes sense that you lack confidence in them, but pretending they're otherwise than you demonstrate doesn't help. And again, should violence break out, know that you'll be among the first to do. And no, that's not a threat - it's a reasoned prediction
Maybe you should realize your own cognitive dissonance and how you dishonestly read most comments you disagree with. You've contributed nothing here except numerous idiotic name changes.
You've got to be kidding. You are one of the worst offenders for just making shit up.
constitutionschmonstitution1789
Fuck off and die.
That's what I'm talking about. Fuck you right back.
Yea, I don't threaten violence - I speak of its necessity.
But let violence break out, and you'll be among the first to die
You personally threaten other commenters. You have done it more than once.
Again, you don't know the definition of the word "threat" Commentary here is sadly above your pay grade
If states don't start taking measures to reduce the spread of COVID-19 in prisons and jails...
Prison staff are learning just how unimportant they are considered by the criminal justice industrial complex.
The demonstration may have backfired if the goal was actually getting the state government to reconsider its rules. Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer said in a TV interview afterward that "this is the kind of behavior that extends the needs for stay-at-home orders."
This is the thinking of tyrants.
Another reason why peaceful assembly is so important.
Tell the government to fuck off and get back to business as usual.
https://www.foxnews.com/media/tucker-carlson-phil-murphy-bill-of-rights
Tucker confronts NJ gov over lockdown measures: 'I wasn't thinking of the Bill of Rights when we did this'
Murphy added that he was not denying anyone the right to worship but that amid the pandemic, "we have to find a different way to worship."
"That's above my pay grade, Tucker," Murphy responded.
Are we to understand that the governor of NJ is too low on the food chain to be aware of the U.S. Constitution? If so, he is "nonessential".
Why don't you drive one of your several MRAP's over there and show them what's up?
Why don’t you fuck off you dishonest piece of shit?
It's not the politicians who have the power to reopen America, or at least the parts that are now closed. It's individuals, families, businesses, and religious congregations...
Government of the people, by the people and for the people? What is Stoll smoking?
https://twitter.com/RealSaavedra/status/1250722706766524417
Why did you guys not include the earlier part of the quote?
Trump: “We’re going to be helping Italy, Spain, France, other nations, and we’re going to be helping them strongly. I think Russia is going to need ventilators. They’re having a hard time in Moscow”
(They're both CNN)
Wow, Asha Ragnarok is just another Confused News Network whore.
The US is investigating the theory that the COVID-19 virus was accidentally released from a Chinese lab
Or purposeful release?
Ooh, leave it to lc1789 to push the envelope on tin foil hat wearing.
New round of sock trolls to follow me around today.
The TDS crew seems to be slowly spiraling to Kirkland levels of discourse.
If "we" are starting to sound more abusive toward Trumpies, it's probably because Trump is going off the rails declaring himself all powerful, and we are getting no acknowledgement of that issue from the cultists.
"I have total authority. TOTAL."
"I take no responsibility at all."
$4 trillion deficit.
You guys really have no fig leaf left now. It seems to the rest of us outside the cult that you either lied about being fiscal and constitutional conservatives, or are willing to sacrifice those values for whatever else it is you think Trump is going to do for you.
From where I'm sitting, it seems like you guys wanted to own the libs and hurt the brown people so badly that you are willing to sacrifice checks and balances, free elections, and fiscal conservatism.
Lol
You're broken, espresso.
It is fun to watch
I'm broken because I'm still a libertarian, no matter who is president? Mmmk. Go back to standing for nothing at all, other than Trump's ass must be kept tongue clean at all times.
Yes, yes - "libertarians" whine about the "racism" they see in everything constantly, swallow the anonymous "facts" of the deep/bureaucratic/technocrat state without question, and have a perspective entirely subservient to the progressive narrative.
Shika Dalmia might believe you're libertarian though
That would be fine, since she is a bona fide libertarian.
Lol
“From where I’m sitting, it seems like you guys wanted to own the libs and hurt the brown people so badly”
That was your opinion from the beginning, so any evidence that supports it is noted, and any evidence that contradicts it is ignored, you lying piece of shit.
#RUSSIA
MIT study: Subways a ‘major disseminator’ of coronavirus in NYC
https://nypost.com/2020/04/15/mit-study-subways-a-major-disseminator-of-coronavirus-in-nyc/
No shit. Well, actually, some amount is shit.
The FBI knew in 2016 that russia knew of Steeles efforts and were providing misinformation. They continued to use it as a basis for FISA warrants. This information was also oddly absent from the Mueller report.
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/declassified-footnotes-show-russian-intelligence-knew-about-steele-dossier-efforts-in-summer-of-2016
That is called perjury. Remember when I said about a year ago that the FBI was guilty of perjury before the FISA court and people needed to go to jail for it and ChemJeff and the other lefty idiot sock puppets on here said I was a conspiracy theorist? Today, the fact that the FBI lied is just "old news". Fucking assholes.
+1000
Indict those government bureaucrats who committed perjury.
It is worse than that when you think about it. The FBI utilized known russian disinformation while accusing trump of collaborating with Russia.
You don't think the FBI and IC doesn't have a lot of close ties to their old adversaries in the KGB? I think it is possible and maybe likely that the whole thing was a joint CIA KGB operation from the start. Yes, the very people who were claiming Trump was collaborating with Russia were themselves saying that because they were collaborating with Russia.
Jussie Smollett partied with his alleged 'attacker' at a Chicago bathhouse: report
So...we finally get the rub.
The man was reaching out across party lines and trying to make peace in MAGA Country.
Let it go, lc. Let it go.
Fuck off, fuck off. And die.
What difference at this point dies it make? #herturn #russia
Well, yeah. The dude got caught lying. It's no longer news, but LC1789, he's still keeping tabs.
well, somebody did
Peter Navarro accuses his own network, CBS, of altering his interview about Covid issues. The narrative framed on 60 minutes focused on how awful trump is instead of the focus of the 2 hour interview being about Chinas role.
https://dailycaller.com/2020/04/14/white-house-peter-navarro-cbs-news-60-minutes-full-interview/
And this protect china narrative is wide spread in put media.
Jim Acosta
✔
@Acosta
· Apr 14, 2020
Scapegoats blamed by Trump for Coronavirus pandemic:
World Health Organization
Members of News Media
Democrats in Congress
Governors
(Not himself)
Jim Acosta
✔
@Acosta
Other scapegoats blamed by Trump:
China
Obama administration
With CNN literally publishing chinese propaganda from the communist leadership.
https://www.foxnews.com/media/cnn-accused-of-literally-publishing-chinese-propaganda-in-report-citing-chinas-state-run-media
Doesn’t change that Trump IS awful.
poor sock troll.
Trump is the best President in US History.
#MAGA
John, R Mac, any of you others that claim you aren't Trump ass kissers, want to step up and say something about LC1789's Trump worship?
Didn't think so.
"Doesn’t change that Trump IS awful."
Possibly, but
You.
Are.
Full.
Of.
Shit.
Possibly? Just "possibly"?
Is that literally the only argument you can put forward? Do you have any depth to your sock character at all?
Well, my back story was that my parents were killed in an alley by a guy wearing a MAGA hat.
Perhaps, but Americans NEED TO CLOSE RANKS.
People like Acosta are enemies of the people.
California mayor says he'll resign after comparing Trump backers to KKK: report
At the very least, he should attend history classes because DEMOCRATS started the KKK.
Its the Party of slavery.
Masked violent goon squads assaulting people for the benefit of the political party in charge, to keep them in charge.
1920s: KKK
2020s: Antifa
"If we are going to have 60,000 deaths with people not leaving their homes for more than a month, the number of deaths obviously would have been higher—much higher—if everyone had gone about business as usual," writes Rich Lowry in "The Absurd Case Against the Coronavirus Lockdown."
https://www.timesofisrael.com/top-israeli-prof-claims-simple-stats-show-virus-plays-itself-out-after-70-days/
If the media and politicians continue to spout this garbage about saving lives, we need to get out the woodchippers. The area under the curve is exactly the same whether it is flat or sharp. It is impossible to save a single life other than those who will die unnecessarily if the hospitals are overburdened, and that isn't even remotely the situation we are currently faced with.
And it is widely acknowledged that many regions are currently past any point where the hospitals would be overburdened, and that hot spots are getting there.
And Trump and state governors are talking about next steps to open back up. So, what bogeyman are you arguing against?
Perhaps you should police your own fallacies before you comment on your perception of others
Yes, because nobody is running around the news and cable circuit saying 18 months to reopen, people will die if we open up businesses, etc.
Are you honestly this ignorant?
You guys focus and obsess on those stories. You actively watch for them, so you can clutch your pearls and get all offended.
Meanwhile, outside the world of op eds, the actual President and governors are talking about relaxing orders and opening the economy back up.
“ prominent Israeli mathematician” — whole lotta appeal to authority in taking this one guy’s word for it.
He posted his paper for your perusal. So, skip the appeal to emotion and vet it if you can.
1) 2 professors, not one
2) the paper is public...sooooo... no one is asking you to take anyone's word for anything, in fact he's literally doing the opposite
But I bet you anything the dummy believes the IMHE models despite them never publishing source code.
No, I don't, actually.
As opposed to the scientific "experts" at IHME, whose models were so far off, they and to ramp back their "projected" figures by up to 84%.
Trump says White House to release guidelines on relaxing social distancing on Thursday
I have been asking restaurants for weeks, "when are you going to open back up"? They reply that they dont know and are waiting for government nod.
Corporate restaurants will no longer have the excuse of government recommendations to not reopen their dining areas.
Using the word, “excuse”, implies they have some ulterior motive to keep their dining areas closed, as if they secretly want to lose revenue. What’s your crackpot theory that led you to use the word, “excuse”?
I imagine they are risk averse and worry about being sued. If the official guidance from the government changes and encourages them to reopen based on local conditions then it removes some of the legal worry.
all people MUST wear a mask or face covering in public
So, the governor of New York is mandating that women cover their faces in public. Welcome to the Taliban, folks!
But they all wear them in Iran and it didn’t help much.
And finally...
Kudos for Reason for finally covering the protests.
Ding, ding, ding. Woohoo! Hallelujah!
JesseAz said something positive about unreason.
Seriously, it’s nice to see a positive comment.
It is amazing how you and the others you tend to side with completely ignore reality and instead push your preconceived narratives.
How about honest discussion just one time from you and the others you side with?
Yeah, I tried that. For a long time. You were one of the worst offenders of shitting all over honest, polite discussion.
So, I'm done with it. Now, I'm a rude troll, just like you.
Now why don't you try a little honesty?
https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1250779352096268291
In even more important news, Euromomo just released its newest Europe-wide all-cause death count for last week. Remember, all-cause mortality is the most important dataset, as it is not subject to coding errors. Great news! Deaths appear to have peaked.
https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1250778369396006912
For the last six days (Saturday through today) Sweden has reported 463 deaths total. That's an increase from the same six-day period a week ago - when it reported 379 - but hardly exponential growth...
That exponential growth has been decimated.
https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1250513899113324545
Yep, the public health folks, after a month of promising that within two weeks we'd be near collapse, are now making the big pivot to the "second wave." I don't know if people will put up with this. Though they've already put up with way more than I expected...
It is worth remembering in the United States outside of New York City, and possibly New Orleans and Detroit, there has BEEN NO FIRST WAVE. There have barely even been ripples. That's why the hospitals are empty.
That’s why the hospitals are empty.
Yes they are, and people are dying because their non-emergency surgeries were cancelled.
You exaggerate.
In most areas outside the hot spots you named, hospitals have not been empty. They have not been overwhelmed, but they have not been empty.
Areas outside the big cities have most definitely had “community spread”, hospitalizations, and deaths. Also, about 10 - 20% of confirmed cases are among heath care workers.
But, also, most areas have been under stay-at-home or social distancing orders, so there’s no good counterfactual data.
How did Sweden's curve go?
Quite nicely until they hit their mid 30s.
Too tall
CS1789,
You have no fucking idea what you are talking about.
In my West Coast state, Hospitals are IN FACT empty. My wife is a nurse and works in one 6 days a week.
Only 10% of tested suspects are positive, statistically none of the health care workers are positive, and the overwhelming vector of transmission has been senior care facilities.
Shut the fuck up.
Bullshit. My wife is chief of staff at her exurb hospital. It is empty.
Disagree. Work at a West cost major metropolitan hospital with almost 1000 beds. Hospital is almost empty. Talking about reducing staff hours.
""worst-case model estimates predict that almost two-thirds of hospital beds in Louisiana (8,000 of 12,000) and Georgia (14,000 of 23,000), two-fifths in California (28,000 of 65,000), and more than three-quarters in the most vulnerable state, Arkansas (7,000 of 9,000), will be required by prisoners between 14 and 22 days from now," reports The Appeal."
The regular models were working so well. So let's definitely listen to the worst case ones.
Nothing says free mind like blind trust in government models.
Reason is the Ralph northam of libertarianism. It's meant to keep libertarians comfortable while their fate is decided by experts.
Cops may start slapping NYC stores and workers with fines for not wearing masks
Laying off cops should be a priority by this Friday. There is no need for so many cops sitting around.
Relatedly, from the Cato Institute's David Boaz: Data shows Americans are "mostly staying home because we decided to—we as individuals, and businesses, and civil society."
Which is why people continued to go to concerts just days before corporations shut down based on orders...
Stop pushing this fucking lie.
"If we are going to have 60,000 deaths with people not leaving their homes for more than a month, the number of deaths obviously would have been higher—much higher—if everyone had gone about business as usual," writes Rich Lowry in "The Absurd Case Against the Coronavirus Lockdown."
And I have a rock that keeps tigers at bay.
The old I have a rock that keeps tigers at bay canard is pure sophistry. I might have a rifle that keeps tigers at bay. So the issue is are the lockdowns a rock or a rifle? You just assume they are a rock and didn't do any good. Yes correlation is not conclusive proof of causation. It is not disproof either.
I am always left to wonder what the position here is. Do you think that banning all mass gatherings and such had no effect? If so, why is that? How could it not? You seem to be saying that staying that thinking that staying away from other people is a way to stop the spread of a virus is akin to thinking a rock will keep tigers away. That is a rather novel view of how viruses work to say the least.
If you want to say that the lockdown has done more damage than the virus would have done had it been unchecked, that is at least a reasonable argument. I am not sure if it is true but I think it is at least plausible. But if your position is that the lockdown didn't slow the spread the virus and there would have been no price to continuing on as normal, then you are just as big of a nut as the people claiming we should continue the lockdown forever.
Good reply.
Sweden banned large gatherings but not much else.
Their death rate per million is in the middle compared with other Euro countries. Maybe the Israeli guy is on to something
Sweden banned large gatherings but not much else.
Swedes, by nature, aren't as touchy-feely as Americans.
"Do you think that banning all mass gatherings and such had no effect? If so, why is that? How could it not? You seem to be saying that staying that thinking that staying away from other people is a way to stop the spread of a virus is akin to thinking a rock will keep tigers away. "
You misunderstood my snarkiness.
The baseline assumptions in the model that assume social distancing work, and since deaths are below model estimates, we have now proved the assumption is the same fallacy as believe since I bought an anti tiger rock and no tigers have attacked me, the rock works.
You're falling for the same implicit bias of model analysis. Models are built on an assumption. The assumption was social distancing works. Without it all hell breaks lose. Since all hell didn't break lose, it means social distancing worked. This is a logical fallacy.
In mathematical terms:
p -> q
since q, then p.
This is not correct, because...
p->q
but... r->q or even !q could exist as part of the baseline sets. therefore making the assumption that q->p is wrong since q could have been caused by other factors (ie the rock didn't stop the tiger attacks, no tigers existed).
So to believe your fallacy that the lockdowns are responsible for lack of deaths you have to already believe that the virus would have killed many many people which you have no proof on. The fact is that as more data is gathered, the CFR and infection rates keep plummeting.
" I am not sure if it is true but I think it is at least plausible. "
Great, so prove it, but dont' force your plausibility as fact. Or are you now going to allow Ford's plausible claim as fact that Kavanaugh assaulted her?
So to believe your fallacy that the lockdowns are responsible for lack of deaths you have to already believe that the virus would have killed many many people which you have no proof on
That is true. But it is true because I can't go back and live the counter factual of not doing this stuff. Effective countermeasures end up looking like an overreaction on the other end. And since you can't go back and live the counterfactual, it is very hard to tell what is a lifesaving counter measure and what was an overreaction. And there is no way to tell by looking at the death rate.
You just assume that it didn't save lives because that is what you want to believe. And you may be right. We don't know. But we may be wrong as well.
Your point make logical sense John, but look upthread at that post about the published Israeli study. That study suggests that when you look at the numbers of cases and deaths from the bug, it doesn't matter that much what kind of public health measures you take. The disease peaks and falls pretty much the same. If you've a bunch of old and fat people, your group will do badly; if not, they won't.
I'm not sure I agree with that study---one of the reasons I think New Orleans and New York did as badly as they did were because they had heavy Mardi Gras and Chinese New Year celebrations, with lots of people----but that appears to be what that paper is claiming. Accordingly, open things up, and see what happens.
Something has changed things in the States from the dire projections of two-three weeks ago. And we were distancing, etc...even back then.
I posted this on the Michigan governor thread but I think it is more revelent to your point here.
I am starting to come to the conclusion that all we are doing here is pushing off the inevitable. At some point, this virus is going to have to burn itself out in the population. We can have that happen slowly and do all of this economic damage or we can do it fast and suffer a lot of deaths and have a nasty time of it but at least get it over with and get back to normal. Neither is a good choice but I think the get it over with option is the best of a set of bad options.
The distancing measures have certainly slowed the spread of the virus but it hasn’t stopped the spread and it has done nothing to eradicate the virus. As soon as things open up, the virus will go right back to spreading as fast as it would have. And it isn’t going to go away. And we are looking at at least September and more likely next spring before there is any kind of a vaccine for it. You tell me what our options are. I don’t think we can do this for a year. So at some point, we are just going to have to tough it out. And the longer we wait to do that, the more damage we do to the economy.
Your entire argument is based on this unfounded assumption:
" or we can do it fast and suffer a lot of deaths and have a nasty time of it but at least get it over with and get back to normal. "
Hence the tiger rock allegory.
It is also possible, and even more likely given actual random sampling done on a few towns and the Princess Cruise lines, that the death rate and infection rate are lower than current assumptions. In fact if you look at the blood test study done a week or so ago where they reanalyzed tests and showed a confirmed 10% covid infection rate but a 50% covid antibody rate would show most humans are not effected by this. Yet you are still panicking based on initial assumptions which are turning out to be more and more wrong by the day. Even the IMHE models are saying they were wrong on initial assumptions.
Every year the flu and cold viruses mutate. We can't live our lives based on random mutations to disease that effect relatively low percentages of the population. I highly any of the multitude of books on the Red Queen theory of evolution.
What Jesse said. Ab testing is increasingly showing that a lot of people caught this thing sometime, got over it, and went about their day. It's just not that lethal. Instead of a 3-10 percent CFR, we should be running models with 0.1-0.5 or so percent. Lots of infected, not that many dead.
We're still not at herd immunity for the population, but it's becoming clearer that the economic effects from social distancing and involuntarily closing businesses, are a lot worse than the public health problems from this disease. Lying about the stats---as I strongly suspect is occurring, if indeed the Feds are paying more money to a public health system through CARES if a given case is COVID vs non-COVID-related---isn't helping.
The fact is that we don't know. I think Jesse is just as foolish to think this would be no big deal as the people who think we are all going to die if we don't stay indoors are. I am sorry, I would love to believe that this is just another flu. But my lying eyes say otherwise. Ordinary flu doesn't put thousands of people on respirators every year. Ordinary flue doesn't overwhelm the medical systems of even places like Italy every year.
The claim seems to be that there is just nothing to this. That somehow the media and the Chinese and I don't know who else took a regular flue virus and have created the perception that it is somehow more contagious and more deadly than any other flu virus. That is just bullshit. This stuff is dangerous and it is deadly. And the results of it burning itself out in the population are not going to be pretty. And anyone who thinks it won't be is kidding themselves. Worse, the claims that it is just makes the people who are overreacting look more rational.
John, I was one of the people predicting here, around end of March, April 1, that we'd have 25k dead/day by April 15 if the models held like it looked like they were going to. I was wrong. Knew it about April 5-6, when deaths/day weren't skyrocketing like they were predicted to.
This thing just isn't as lethal as advertised. Especially as we're finding more and more samples where a significant people have antibodies to the bug, but were never recorded Covid cases. The denominator in that death percentage calculation just got a whole lot bigger.
You're right, in that this is a bit more serious than most flu seasons. But it's a case of twice as bad---and we thankfully may not even see death numbers that would support even that---not the 30 to 50 times as bad that this was sold as.
Still have to figure out what the sequelae of a typical case are likely to be. Still need to figure out just what's up with the rare cases of cardiac myopathy attributable to this, and the very rare cases of brain lesions. But this just isn't the Black Death 2.0 it's been made out to be.
This is reasonable. Thank you John.
No, it was actually wrong.
John is correct that correlation is not proof of causation. It can, however, be disproof. This is especially evident when we have natural experiments such as where different jurisdictions try different policies. Hypothesis: The lockdowns save lives. Evidence: Jurisdiction A implements a lockdown and deaths go down. Maybe the lockdown cause the drop in deaths. But maybe something entirely unrelated caused the drop instead. Additional evidence: Jurisdiction B implements a lockdown and deaths go down. This increases our confidence in the hypothesis, though it is still not proof. The unrelated something could have caused both drops. Additional evidence: B's lockdown was more severe and B's drop was further. This let's us begin to plot a dose-response curve and, if the trend continues, could vastly increase our confidence in the hypothesis. The odds of the unrelated-something mirroring the dose-response pattern by chance is very unlikely. On the other hand, if the more severe lockdowns are matched by the same or lower drop in deaths, this decreases our confidence in the hypothesis. Additional evidence: C did not implement a lockdown but C's deaths dropped anyway. This greatly decreases our confidence in the hypothesis. It requires a different something to have dropped the deaths over and above the increase expected by the lack of lockdown. So far, the available evidence from jurisdictions like Sweden and the US states that implemented relatively fewer of the lockdowns suggest that our confidence in the original hypothesis should be low.
You are such a genius. Why, oh why, doesn’t everyone listen to you. The world would be so much better off.
Must be frustrating being able to know counterfactual facts, and nobody believes you.
You use the word facts incorrectly. Models aren't facts.
Have you ever had an actual valid argument?
I think covid was a small price to pay so hunter biden could succeed in life, don't you?
Actually, the whole "Bear Patrol" story line is a great allegory for this. One bear shows up one morning, relatively innocuous, and the entire town marches on Mayor Quimby's office demanding he DO SOMETHING to protect them (complete with "think of the children!"). Then Homer is so smug and happy that the Bear Patrol is "working," oblivious to fact that he was going to be paying for it with the bear tax. Once he finds out, of course, he can't believe that he is actually being expected to PAY for this ("let the bears pay the bear tax!"). The only thing better would have been if there were "bear scientists" with charts showing how the day over day increase in bears (from 0 to 1) is an incalculably high percentage, and thus models conclude that the only logical expectation would be billions of bears in the days to come.
People's reactions to this are very regional based on how bad their area is, and then other data on personal levels. People were still going to concerts just days before because we were seeing shit like "4000 total US cases" and not thinking there was an actual big deal going on.
I know personally I had planned on going to a concert the Friday everything went nuclear. It got cancelled, and by the end of the weekend we were restructuring our time/work/etc to promote health and space people out, avoid crowds etc.
Things happened very fast due to data lag.
There were multiple concerts even after the lockdowns such as in Colorado. Spring break still happened.
People did not voluntarily self isolate as the quote from Cato suggests. They were forced into it.
"They were forced into it."
That. People here want to go to bars, restaurants, etc... They're just not allowed to.
We had a bunch of spring breakers.
Then Jacksonville closed their beaches, so we got a whole bunch more spring breakers.
There are, reportedly, 3 cases in the city and 20 total in the county.
Not exactly living up to the hype
JHU Sick Map
Yup. 2M confirmed infected out of 7.8 billion people Worldwide.
END THIS HYSTERIA!
Straight raw numbers.
And for this we've put MILLIONS out of work and then fucken idiots wonder why people are losing it?
Billions out of work, I'd say. India is still in near total lock down.
http://disq.us/p/28ntbyn
Mostly the internet is a pool of viciousness and banality. Occasionally, you find some genuinely entertaining crazy rather than the ordinary boring and stupid kind. This qualifies as entertaining crazy and is a rare gem.
satan-worshippers certainly raise their children to worship satan. they even sacrifice their children to molloch. Follow the bloodlines. One example, gloria vanderbilt sacrificed one of her sons, the other is pooper scooper on China News Network. Another example, check out GWHB. Did he and barb lose a child? These evil occult practices are now being revealed. Thank God for President Donald J. Trump and Patriots worldwide. WWG1WGA!
What I hate about all of the trolls here is how boring they are. They all just come here and put up the same boring leftist talking points for the day. There used to be some very entertaining posters on here who were more than a bit nuts. Sadly, no more.
Which deaths count toward the covid-19 death toll? It depends on the state.
The states are definitely rounding UP.
https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1250510635252809733
Wait, the model that got everything wrong in real-time (and even after multiple updates couldN’t match ACTUAL data) is now making estimates for a past that didn’t exist, and comparing them to current marshmallow man death figures? Oh. Sounds plausible.
The nice thing about this estimate from the point of view of
@IHME_UW
is that it can never be proven wrong. And they really need that.
Alex Berenson is a hero in this. Unlike most who dare question the Narrative, he was not painted as an alt-right, Trump-loving Nazi before this (although he might be afterward), but rather appears to have been part of the respectable NY media intelligentsia. He seems to have always had a bit of a contrarian streak, but otherwise a pretty typical urban freelance journalist/author. For a guy like that to take the approach that he has here takes some balls. If cocktail parties are ever allowed again, his stack of invitations will sure be getting shorter.
Should've clarified that the jackasses in Michigan blocked an ambulance from the hospital. All the same people who would've been screaming to run over BLM protestors on the highway too I'm sure.
Protest- that's all well and good. But maybe do it thoughtfully you morons.
Bet that never happened in 1776.
the jackasses in Michigan blocked an ambulance from the hospital.
Actually, that's just what Whitmer claimed and she's not trustworthy.
"Should’ve clarified that the jackasses in Michigan blocked an ambulance from the hospital."
I'm sure you have a (real) cite for that claim, right, liar?
Over 50 Cell Towers Vandalized in UK Due to 5G Coronavirus Conspiracy Theories
Lefties lunatics.
END THE HYSTERIA because these Lefties are clearly insane and so are their political leaders who are fanning the flames.
Finally the “Kenneth, What’s the frequency?” story makes sense.
Life at CNN: Skeleton Staff, Record Ratings and Vanishing Ads
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
Fuck CNN and the MSM Propagandists.
Workers at Hollywood Reporter and Billboard Vandalize Website After Getting Laid Off
HAHAHA. Lefties are definitely acting like IF LEFTIES CANNOT CONTROL THINGS THAN NOBODY CAN HAVE NICE THINGS
The Lowry article makes some reasonable points, but at one point he argues against his own premise:
"Bennett and Leibsohn ignore the key fact that the economy began to shut down before there were widespread official shutdown orders. People voted with their feet, because they were fearful of a highly transmissible, virulent disease."
Exactly!
Yeah, and the fake PANIC!!! headlines in the press really didn't have anything to do with it, right?
So were those panic headlines just made up? What do you think happened in Italy if not a whole bunch of people died of this virus and were hospitalized such that the health system was overwhelmed? You guys seem to be saying that was all a hoax and it was just another year in Italy.
I hate the media more than almost anyone. But the idea that they just made this up is insane. We really are having a pandemic and there really is a very nasty virus out there. What we should do is up for debate. But stop claiming the whole thing was a hoax.
Not made up at all. And the virus was sufficiently a threat to warrant some hard action.
But we're now in another phase of hysteria.
Some of this is a result of China/WHO lying and outright incompetent on our part.
That's my problem.
Shut the fuck up idiot, we've had enough of your cowardly bleating.
We don't have a nasty virus we have a cold with a slightly elevated death toll. Italy is known to have completely fucked up their numbers but your ass apparently doesn't know that fact, which has been public knlwledge for weeks. So why don't you sit down and shut the fuck up. Your chicken littling is embarrassing.
It can hit healthy people much harder than a cold, and takes much longer to recover from. This is worse than a cold. The low end estimates put the fatality at 4x that of the flu, which is much more lethal than the cold.
I disagree with the draconian steps being taken, but that doesn't mean I have to pretend "it's just a cold"; I even think the numbers are being inflated for mortality and again recognize it's not just a cold.
Umm... the latest low end estimate out of research in France puts the fatality rate equal to the Flu.
The one I saw linked here a was .4 compared to the standard .1 of the flu.
Any link to the French research? I'd like to read that.
I want this to be an NBD.
"So were those panic headlines just made up? "
They didn't have to be "made up" to be fake. Journalists are supposed to *verify*, and instead we get:
"The best computer models, she said, predict that between 100,000 and 200,000 Americans will die from COVID-19 during the coming months, even if the country continues the strict social distancing measures that most states have adopted. Relaxing those restrictions would send the toll much higher."
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/03/31/824946036/models-of-epidemic-predict-huge-u-s-death-toll-scientists-hope-for-better-outcom
John, they didn't make it up, they highlighted the issue causing a false panic. Again, the numbers of death are not out of bed with a bad flu season. The media almost never high lights a bad flu season aside from throw away lines of get your flu shot. There was a media comparison to this and the swine flu. After 3 days the swine flu stopped being on front pages. Covid has been on the front page since February... over 24k deaths. The panic that resulted is from over saturation and over consumption of a negative outcome.
This is the same reason kids have CPS called on them for playing in the parks by themselves despite kidnapping numbers actually decreasing from the past. It is because the media now highlights country wide kidnappings creating a false panic over kids being in parks without adults. You're giving into the same behavior as that.
"We really are having a pandemic and there really is a very nasty virus out there. "
A pandemic just means new virus. We have these every few years. As for the nasty virus... as more and more data comes out it is turning out to not be that nasty. again, we are 24k deaths, with model projections for 60k. T hat isn't nasty, that's life.
Even 'bad' flu seasons do not kill 2,400 Americans per day. And we are at those levels of deaths with everyone locked in at home. For some reason, and much like global warming, you need to convince yourself that the threat isn't real. Latching on to the single report here or there on the fringes that validates your feeling, and ignoring reams of ink that points against your feelings. It's funny how easy it is to convince you of the danger of a Mexican toddler, though.
It is like you are ignorant to how numbers are generated. NYC Hospitals admitted in a GitHub data dump that they are back allocating deaths from january/february as covid related, which get attributed to the released numbers of that day. They are released updated totals, not updated daily deaths.
Likewise in 2017 the average death rate was 5k people a week. Even if we peaked at 5k a day, if that peak is over 2 weeks, it would be less total deaths than 5k a week over 3 months from 2017.
There is a reason smart people don't compare peak rates and normalize the spread over an average timeline.
Sorry you aren't a smart person.
There's a reason smart people stopped comparing this to the flu. Sorry you keep on keeping on with the fox news regurgitation.
I'm not saying locking everyone at home is the best answer, but you have to wonder why places as different as Italy, Iran, India, China, EU, and most of the states in the US all came to the same solution.
If this is a conspiracy, then it is the most incredible feat of human cooperation in world history. If it isn't a conspiracy, then isolation is the global aggregate best solution that humans can think of with the information and tools available.
Actually you are saying that.
"but you have to wonder why places as different as Italy, Iran, India, China, EU, and most of the states in the US all came to the same solution."
They all use the debunked IMHE model. Again, a smart person would realize they have a single point of panic based on a bad model projection. But again, you aren't smart.
Iran used the IMHE model, or did dozens of their government leaders get sick, some dying, and the infection blew out of control until they were digging mass graves visible from space?
https://www.space.com/iran-coronavirus-graves-satellite-images.html
The people of Iran also completely ignored their "leaders", based on a history of fuckitude. Follow all the models you want, but when the people aren't on board, they do no good.
Iran killed thousands of their own citizens just a few months ago because people were getting too uppity.
But sure, we trust that those mass graves visible from space are just due to the covid, which couldn't possibly be used to cover democide
The lemming fallacy for the win.
"I'm smarter than every government and every infectious disease specialist" fallacy.
"Libertarians for Trusting Government."
libertarians for trusting conspiratard-freedom-eagle.net
"What do you think happened in Italy if not a whole bunch of people died of this virus and were hospitalized such that the health system was overwhelmed? You guys seem to be saying that was all a hoax and it was just another year in Italy."
A couple of things made it bad for a few parts of Northern Italy. Note that Southern Italy does not seem to have been nearly as badly affected.
1) Italy had the highest proportion of old people in Europe. Really old people. For awhile, the median age of fatal Covid cases was something like 81 or 85. The virus kills a higher percentage of old folks compared to young.
2) Social distancing and a lack thereof. Italians conduct social discourse at a closer range than many other European cultures. Helps spread a bug that's passed through droplet transmission.
3) Most importantly though, Italy's medical system is, like many such socialized systems, a bit of a basket case on a good day. The flu in other years mows people down in Northern Italy if the vaccine isn't a good fit for that year's bug. They don't have a lot margin in their health care system for an excess of respiratory cases, and their healthcare structures don't handle stress as well as other countries' do.
All of which combine to have a higher death rate than other countries, as well as local breakdowns like having to stash bodies in churches, or just getting corpses into the ground without testing them for Covid. Other countries have younger populations and have their shit better together.
Uh, Italy mixed covid patients with non-covid patients, basically ensuring that everybody in the hospital gets the bug. And since they were already in the hospital, they were sick enough to need vents or just died. This also overloaded the system, because duh.
They do that with flu patients every year as well. Yet, every flu season isn't disaster in Italy like this one was. The fact that they couldn't mix COVID patients with regular patients like they can with the flu is pretty strong evidence that Jesse is wrong when he claims COVID is just another flu.
It is worth noting that Italian hospitals are overwhelmed almost every year just by seasonal flu. The country was a basket case before the EU started bailing them out. Their infrastructure (including healthcare infrastructure) is still massively underfunded, outdated and inefficient. They also have one of the oldest average populations in the EU (largely because, like Florida, it's someplace warm to retire to) which made it a population especially susceptible to this virus.
The Pandemic and the folly of man.
If the Mongols or Huns were alive today holy shit, they'd have a world empire in about two weeks we've become so soft and addicted to vapid stupidity.
Soldier: 'Hey Attila, the horses are antsy today!'
Attila (Assessing the situation). 'It's ok. We won't need them'.
"Wildlife collapse from climate change is predicted to hit suddenly and sooner"
https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/wildlife-collapse-from-climate-change-is-predicted-to-hit-suddenly-and-sooner/ar-BB12GihU
Pretty sure the catastrophists have this headline permanently set in type and they roll it out once every 6-8 months.
The pandemic thing is almost over, got to switch back to the old standbys.
One really interesting thing about this pandemic, and the global shutdown from it. Go look at the CO2 sensor readings from Mauna Loa: https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/weekly.html
You'd expect them to be much lower for the last two months, relative to last year. Global demand for oil has fallen so far that we're seeing some of the lowest prices for crude oil ever. (Plus a production pissing match between Russia and KSA, but lower demand is a giant part of this too.)
Cars are being driven a lot less, factories were shut down, etc... Shouldn't CO2 levels have been falling then, if so much less fossil fuels were being used? But when you look at the graph, they aren't falling, are they?
What else is going on? Is it simply there's a titanic amount of lag in this system, and we'll see drops in, say, October, or maybe next year? Or is there another system responsible for the continued rise in CO2?
Or is the anthropogenic contribution of CO2 vastly overestimated?
Kinda what I was wondering, Nardz.
I was not expecting the Jan-Feb PPM to rise in 2020 v. 2019
According to the models used in the research cited by the IPCC, CO2 is a well-mixed gas. That suggests that incremental changes should show up in spot measurements such as Mauna Loa relatively quickly. Weeks or months at most. There is, however, another system that contributes to CO2 - outgassing by the oceans as average temperature rebounds from the Little Ice Age. In other words, increasing CO2 levels do not necessarily increase temperature. Increasing temperature could be what's causing the increase in CO2 levels.
The Small Business Administration has granted most of the $338 billion set aside for Paycheck Protection Program loans for small businesses.
Bernie should concede the election, since these breadlines mean the economy is working.
I am issuing an Executive Order today that all people MUST wear a mask or face covering in public in situations where social distancing is not possible.
So when you're being beaten by NYPD for wearing a mask you better be wearing a mask.
What kind of mask? Halloween mask ok?
...writes Rich Lowry in "The Absurd Case Against the Coronavirus Lockdown."
Now do guns?
For COVID-19 patients, "the chronic condition with the strongest association with critical illness was obesity," according to a new draft paper.
It's always obesity's fault, isn't it, medical community?
And fuck the 'we're in this together' propaganda. Not to mention the notion that somehow 'heroes' for being sheep. I want to rip up those stupid LBQTQTGNTTAWWT rainbows in windows. I loathe empty positivity.
'People are about to lose their jobs. What can I do?' /snaps finger. 'I got it! I'm gonna get kids to draw rainbows!'
#bakingbread; #reflectingonlife; #cherishthesmallthings; #learningalanguage; #suckmyballs; #ihateeveryoneexceptmycat.
IF in fact it’s really true that protestors are creating gridlock and blocking emergency vehicles, they shouldn’t. It’s wrong when America-hating left wing scumbags do that, and it’s also wrong when normal Americans who want their jobs back do it. Don’t do that, people. Even when your cause is just, you won’t win any sympathy that way.
As for this:
Relatedly, from the Cato Institute's David Boaz: Data shows Americans are "mostly staying home because we decided to—we as individuals, and businesses, and civil society."
What absolute fucking horse shit. So the people struggling to pay this month’s bills voluntarily decided to be in this spot? The decline of Cato (which used to be pretty great) is as sad as the decline of Reason.
...please remember to put pants on before leaving the house to check your mailbox. You know who you are. This is your final warning.
No breeches gets stitches.
Banks: We're here for you!
Customer: I can't pay my mortgage.
Banks: /prepares late payment notices.
My buddy who works at a big fancy bank was telling me how stupid people are. All of a sudden they think a pandemic entitles them to free mortgage payments until....well, apparently indefinitely until Gates finds a vaccine or something.
Someone told me - a doctor without a hint of self-reflection - that I'd be 'fine'. Yeh, he's right I should be happy I'm being forced into tens of thousands of business debt I didn't need 'for mankind'. When I replied after he vociferously defended a long-term shutdown where a business owner will find 120k (based on an avg. for a 12 month lease in my industry) he couldn't answer except with that, 'you'll be fine'.
Anyway. When my friend explained to clients they have to still pay for the capitalized interest on the payments they were stunned and even angry.
Sometimes I wonder how deep the stupidity runs. These are people that VOTE.
And you would think these people would realize, 'Oh. Maybe staying shut down isn't exactly a wise thing'. Nope. They demand government to force banks and landlords to not collect period.
Your anecdote about that doctor yesterday made me quite angry. You handled it a lot better than I might've. Too bad you can't switch docs, as that probably would've led me to do it, in your position.
I see no purpose on taking it up a notch.
But it does make me stew in anger.
By the way, there's a black market forming. People are doing jobs on the side.
I thought only Literally Hitler sued the press:
https://twitter.com/ErikWemple/status/1250455750075441153
Just spoke with Elizabeth Hallock, the Yakima, Wash.-based attorney who filed the suit against
@FoxNews
for its coronavirus coverage. She withdrew from the case on Tuesday.
She told me that the case has been transferred to another attorney and that the plaintiff, a Wash. nonprofit, is in good hands. She couldn't continue, she said, because she was busy running her marijuana store and she's spearheading a recall campaign against a local politician.
"The demonstration may have backfired if the goal was actually getting the state government to reconsider its rules. Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer said in a TV interview afterward that "this is the kind of behavior that extends the needs for stay-at-home orders."
These things are about reactions to reactions.
The reason a relative unknown in Barack Obama beat out Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination was mostly because where Hillary Clinton had fully supported the Iraq War, Barack Obama was seen as the anti-Iraq War candidate. Hillary Clinton wasn't alone in the Democrat establishment. Before John Murtha came out against the Iraq War in November of 2005, opposing the Iraq War (or anything else the Bush administration wanted to do after 9/11, was outside the Overton window--even for Democrats.
Barack Obama could get away with being less than enthusiastic about the Iraq War circa 2003--when the Democrat establishment and Hillary Clinton all fully supported it--because Barack Obama was a nobody. Fast forward to 2008, and within the Democratic party, the worm had turned on the Iraq War. If Barack Obama had been more of a prominent figure in the Democratic party before he keynoted at the Democratic convention in 2004, he probably would have been more pro-Iraq War as part of the establishment. He got lucky! The pro-Iraq War position that used to make Hillary Clinton palatable to swing voting Democrats just a short time before eventually became the reason she lost the nomination.
What does that have to do with Covid-19 and the lockdowns?
There will come a time when all those who are advocating maintaining their lock-downs will rue the day they instituted them. Right now, the American people are more scared of the virus than they are of the lock-downs, but that's because reality hasn't had time to settle in. Twenty (20) million Americans have lost their jobs over the past four weeks, and that trend is likely to accelerate as the lock-downs continue. When people aren't afraid of virus and more afraid about the future because of the economy, their story on the lock-downs will change dramatically. They'll try to rewrite history, but you only need a small sliver of the swing voters to remember the truth to make a big difference.
I have never seen American politicians do anything as dumb as to make it against the law to open your business or go to work--ahead of an impending recession. As reality continues to sink in, along with the impending recession, the profound stupidity of their choices will come back to get them--as sure as the sun will rise tomorrow.
P.S. Circa 2008, conventional wisdom in the Republican party had it that in the midst of that crisis, you had to support TARP. To oppose TARP was considered political suicide by the Republican establishment. They had that exactly backwards, and every one of them who supported TARP came to regret it. They didn't all pay with their seats, but the few who didn't came to regret their support for TARP.
Ken you seem to be under the impression that there are no economic effects of allowing a pandemic to spread unchecked. Sadly, you are mistaken in this. You should read this paper. It examines the economic effects of the 1918 epidemic in places that initiated quarantines and lockdowns (Non pharmaceutical interventions or "NPIs") and cities who did nothing. Well guess what, the cities who did nothing ended up suffering more economic effects than those who did implement NPIs.
n our research, we exploit variation in both the severity of the pandemic, as well as the speed and duration of NPIs implemented to fight disease transmission across U.S. states and cities. NPIs implemented in 1918 resemble many of the policies used to reduce the spread of COVID-19, including closures of schools, theaters, and churches, bans on public gatherings and funerals, quarantines of suspected cases, and restrictions on business hours.
Our paper yields two main insights. First, we find that areas that were more severely affected by the 1918 Flu Pandemic saw a sharp and persistent decline in real economic activity. Second, we find that cities that implemented early and extensive NPIs suffered no adverse economic effects over the medium term. On the contrary, cities that intervened earlier and more aggressively experienced a relative increase in real economic activity after the pandemic subsided. Altogether, our findings suggest that pandemics can have substantial economic costs, and NPIs can lead to both better economic outcomes and lower mortality rates.
https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2020/03/fight-the-pandemic-save-the-economy-lessons-from-the-1918-flu.html
You are doing the same thing everyone else her is doing. You are assuming that everything you want to believe about this virus is true and that there are no tradeoffs to your preferred policy and then reasoning that everyone who objects must be crazy and want death and poverty.
Give us some numbers.
What level of contagiousness triggers lockdown?
What fatality rate should trigger lock down?
5%?
2%?
1%?
.5?
.2%
No doubt, I think that people who wish to isolate themselves should be free to do so, but those who want to use the coercive power of government to force other people--who don't fear the virus as much as they fear losing their jobs, their businesses, or their homes . . . to lose their homes anyway?!
People were isolating themselves long before the government told them they had to do so--because they don't need the government to tell them to avoid public places in an epidemic like they don't need the government to tell them to exit a burning building. If some guy wants to run into a burning building, on the other hand, to save his family or their life's savings, the government has no business stopping him.
In fact, the people who have the most to worry about are the people who mostly continue to isolate themselves, and the people who are most likely to reopen their businesses and go back to work are the people who are the most desperate, economically speaking. They should all be free to make choices for themselves just like they do in a market--rather than central planning.
And that's what we're talking about here. Market forces aren't a theoretical construction. Market forces are individual people like you and me making choices for ourselves within the context of a market, and the judgements each of us make for ourselves using our own separate and conflicting motives while pursuing our own best interests despite our own estimation of the risks is always vastly superior to forcing some people to lose their jobs and their homes to placate the qualitative preferences of central planners like you.
No, you're not doing this to other individual people for their own good--regardless of what happened to groups of people in 1918. I can't believe I'm having this conversation with you. It's a progressive argument. Being a progressive is all about using the coercive power of government to force individuals to make sacrifices for the common good. It's the same argument you hear from those who want to ban handguns because I'm more likely to shoot myself or a family member than an intruder. I don't need you or any expert making choices for me for my own good. You don't even know what "good" means to me.
I still can't believe you can't understand the difference between leftism and basic public health measures and leftism. You are in your own way the worst sophist on here. Reductio ad absurdum is a fallacy. You seem to not understand that. By your logic, I could have a deadly and communicable disease and the government has no interest whatsoever in preventing me from spreading that. You are a typical libertarian in that you are utterly incapable of understanding human nature or entertain the thought that not everyone is just like you and might be stupid and irresponsible such that the common interests are invoked.
If you think things like quarantines and banning large gatherings during a pandemic is "leftism", you are an idiot. You are just not a serious person. You are unable to understand nuance and meaning and unable to understand that life is not so simple as to be governed by whatever "principles" you find appealing. Basically, you never intellectually advanced past the 8th grade. And it is clear that my poor teaching ability is not up to the challenge of changing that.
In the mean time, it is nice that you think that everyone has a duty to die for your principles or risk death and the spread of communicable disease for your principles. Adults, however, are unable to live that way. If you think the price of re-opening society is worth paying because the effects of not doing so are worse, fine. That is a reasonable position. But this nonsense about how there is no right for the government to take such measures under any circumstances is just childish drivel.
"I still can’t believe you can’t understand the difference between leftism and basic public health measures and leftism."
Yeah, now do "common sense gun control". It's the same thing. You're a progressive. You'd fit in great in San Francisco.
"By your logic, I could have a deadly and communicable disease and the government has no interest whatsoever in preventing me from spreading that."
We're not talking about quarantining individuals after they've tested positive. We're talking about entire states making it illegal to open your business or go to work--regardless of whether you've ever been infected. It's just like you're punishing law abiding citizens for owning a gun--regardless of whether they've ever pointed a gun at anyone. And calling me all the names in the book won't change that fact.
I just want to know by what standards, what metrics, should be hit to call for the measures currently being taken?
The demonstration may have backfired if the goal was actually getting the state government to reconsider its rules. Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer said in a TV interview afterward that "this is the kind of behavior that extends the needs for stay-at-home orders."
How Bloombergian.
I've got to wonder how much Bloomberg wishes this thing had just hit a month or so earlier than it did. Can you imagine if he had a viable campaign as this was ramping up? This is tailor made for his brand of authoritarian nannying, which the masses suddenly developed an insatiable taste for. He would have been all over TV and the internet talking about all the ways he would lock us down good and hard, everyone across this nation, no exceptions, enforced with satellites and military and a robust system to take calls from good citizens reporting irresponsible actions by their neanderthal neighbors. The media and the Karens might have tried to make him emperor for life right then. I'm honestly a bit surprised he didn't decide to fire up the campaign again, either for the Dem nomination or as an independent. I suppose he still could...
Shut up, shut up, shut up...
Stop poking the low-rent Cthulu sleeping in the corner, and maybe it won't notice the stars have aligned enough for it to wake up and eat our faces?
Too short
If I may, referring to Ra's American Greatness link wondering if this is a hit on Trump voters.
Nothing is impossible but if we can use the example of where I am in a different place, that is Quebec, it may poke a hole in the theory and thus make people feel better.
The government in power is a pro-business, populist party the media characterizes as 'right-wing'. The leader, Francois Legault, is enormously popular across the board.
Yet, we see the very same demographics explained in the article (correctly in my view) being sacrificed in the USA also in Canada.
I don't know why this happened but I think it's likely because we're thoughtless and believed we could just 'bite the bullet' but we're seeing one or two months is the tolerance point before things start to get really ugly regardless of whatever theory is out there.
"If we are going to have 60,000 deaths with people not leaving their homes for more than a month, the number of deaths obviously would have been higher—much higher—if everyone had gone about business as usual,"
I've been to grocery stores, drug stores, and hardware stores multiple times. I have yet to see a corpse lying in the aisles.
I guess she doesn't like motor-boating. Makes sense that she's partial canoes though considering she is a douche-canoe.
Alright, which one of you degenerates lives in Taneytown, Maryland?
22 million Americans have filed for unemployment in the last four weeks.
"WASHINGTON—Another 5.2 million Americans filed for unemployment benefits last week, bringing the total seeking aid in a month of coronavirus-related shutdowns to 22 million workers and showing a broad shock for the U.S. labor market.
Since mid-March about 13% of the labor force has sought jobless assistance, far outpacing any prior four-week stretch on record."
https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-unemployment-claims-likely-continued-at-record-levels-11587029401?
While this week's numbers are lower than the numbers from the week before, the sheer size of it is devastating.
George H. W. Bush once said something to the effect that, "When you're the one who's unemployed, the unemployment rate is 100%". He once enjoyed an approval rating of 89%. In 18 months, his approval rating dropped to 29%--because of the economy.
No doubt, Bush the Greater lost the election in 1992 to Bill Clinton because of Ross Perot, but Ross Perot had such a wide opening because the economy went downhill. When Bill Clinton won the election, one of the first things he did, famously, was put a plaque on his desk that read, "It's the economy, stupid!"
It's too late for President Trump to face an emerging populist like Perot. There just isn't enough time between now and November to organize something like that. Also, it's hard to imagine President Trump facing a populist backlash because President Trump is a populist backlash--especially against the news media, the elitist social justice people in the Democratic party, and "the globalists". It's also hard to imagine the Democratic party putting their social justice concerns aside long enough to focus a sustained effort on the economy at the expense of shutting up about social justice issues.
So, there's no reason to expect President Trump to go the way of President H.W. Bush, but the pressure from a sinking economy is real. Trump should go full blast against the lock-downs now. Being seen as the guy that opposed the things that hurt the economy is the way to win in November, and if Biden puts some lock-down king like Cuomo on his ticket, then Trump coming out big against lock-downs will seem prescient come November, when the virus is no longer the primary concern and the first, middle, and last issue on everyone's minds is the economy, stupid.
Yes.
Whitmore: I'm banning motor-boating.
Aide: O....kay. What about kayaking?
Whitmore: That too.
Aide: O....kay. Canoeing?
Whitmore: Not that. I canoe! It's where I lost my virginity under a full moon. Oh what a night it was. I was on all fours my face over the canoe facing the water. I was drooling as the guy humped me so hard I almost fell over board!
Aide:
>>Puerto Rico criminalizes misinformation.
they blackout Cuomo every morning?
>>New York has made wearing masks in public mandatory:
except it still comes w/a qualification. can't even mandate right.
“This is a time for all of us to be united in our common struggle against a common threat—a dangerous enemy. When we are divided, the virus exploits the cracks between us.”
----Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, Director-General of WHO
https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/04/who-stays-focused-on-fighting-covid-19-as-experts-slam-trumps-attack/
This was said in response to the Trump administration's announcement that it was withholding funding from the World Health Organization yesterday.
If the news media treated the Director-General of WHO the same way they treat President Trump, the headline would read, "Director-General of WHO calls U.S. President a Virus".
Yesterday we were treated to the lie that trump was delaying aid checks to get his name printed on them. Today we're told the the PPP plan ran out of money with no explanation (and Billy's piece did a fine job of bothsidesism). How odd that the Uterus didn't bother to tell us that democrats wanted to fluff up the add so they could reward their local and state government pals. How strange that she didn't mention that Pelosi was enjoying her $48 ice cream while she prevented aid going out to working businesses.
Why, I'm almost starting to question whether Reason actually has any libertarian principles!
If you consider telling the truth regardless of how doing so reflects on the preferred narrative to be a "libertarian principle", then no reason has no libertarian principles.
The whole mess highlights the sadly symbiotic relationship between authorities taking things too far and people (some reasonably and strategically, some carelessly and imprudently) reacting in ways that provoke more draconian policies.
Somebody needs to take a biology or latin class to learn what symbiosis means.
Remora cleaning and eating the scraps off a shark? Symbiosis.
Sharks (and remora) eating other fish around them? Predation.
Ants nesting in a tree and keeping it clear of more destructive insects like aphids? Symbiosis.
Ants eating aphids? Predation.
Lions chasing a herd of water buffalo and the water buffalo circling up to defend themselves against the lions is not symbiosis.
Of course, the concept of reducing complex human behavior to such simplistic instinctual drives stinks like bullshit and smacks of all kinds of retarded elitism.
"If we are going to have 60,000 deaths with people not leaving their homes for more than a month, the number of deaths obviously would have been higher—much higher—if everyone had gone about business as usual," writes Rich Lowry in "The Absurd Case Against the Coronavirus Lockdown."
What, like going to the grocery store that's still open? The same one where people who have COVID must go grocery shopping?
Sure, right. Go ahead and pull the other one.
"Many people concluded that for now there is nothing to do but suck it up. It won't be surprising if some of those people eventually have an intense desire to spit out." The trick is not to be AmSoc or the Rev or Tony or any number of faggots who live on their knees braying for more government cock.
The TRAC analysis is crap. Incomes are distributed on a Poisson distribution. Using average income subjects their analysis to severe skewing when just a few high-income people move. Consider, for example, when LeBron James moved from Akron to some suburb of Miami. Summit County's average income plummeted while the new county jumped. They should have run the analysis with median income. Medians are not subject to the kind and degree of skewing that simple averages are. Of course, even that analysis isn't as mathematically stupid as Lowry's. He seems to have memory-holed the initial argument for the lockdowns. They were never about stopping the spread of the disease or about changing the number of people who would get sick or die from it. They can't for a highly infectious disease. The sole argument was "flattening the curve" - spreading out the number of cases over time so we wouldn't overload hospitals. Turns out we came nowhere close to overloading our hospitals. And comparing our cases per capita to other jurisdictions which did not implement the same lockdowns, it's pretty clear now that we never would have come close.
Lots of people are still working and or receive benefits. The people demanding the economy to be reopened are likely middle class and small business owners who have pressing obligations they cannot meet thanks to shutdown . Not everyone can chillax at home binging on Netflix.
The progs are pussies, and their yellow bellies are showing now. How often do they burn down the streets and assault people over the trivial things? Now with the fate of the nation hanging in the balance, they submit to establishment unconditionally and wag their fingers at a few people at the government committing suicide.