The Other Broken Windows Fallacy

The NYPD is accused of under-reporting serious crimes while manufacturing petty ones.

One of the central themes of the critically acclaimed HBO series The Wire was the pressure politicians put on police brass, who then apply it to the department’s middle management, to generate PR-friendly statistics about lowering crime and increasing arrests. The show, based in part on co-creator Ed Burns' experience as a narcotics cop at the Baltimore Police Department, was a running narration of the chasm between what politicians and the public consider to be effective crime fighting techniques and what measures actually make cities safer.

So a special police unit working on a long term project to bring down brutally violent rival drug dealers gets scrapped for buy-and-busts on low-level peddlers. In terms of spinnable statistics, 50 street-level arrests look better than the takedown of a single major player. When new mayor Tommy Carcetti takes office, the acting police chief orders mass arrests for petty crimes such as vagrancy and open container violations. The crackdown poisons police-community relations, but the chief hopes they'll endear him to his new boss.

Those very themes are now playing out in real-life New York City. Last month, a scandal rocked the city's vaunted COMPSTAT program, the data-driven crime-tracking system championed by former Police Chief William Bratton and former Mayor Rudy Giuliani in the 1990s. COMPSTAT is widely credited for bringing down the Big Apple's crime rate, and has since been adopted by other cities.

But according to a survey of high-ranking NYPD retirees conducted by Long Island's Molloy College, police commanders faced heavy pressure from higher-ups to to reduce felonies to misdemeanors—or in some cases to not report crimes at all—in order to make the numbers look prettier. An officer from Brooklyn's 81st Precinct then came forward to complain about constant pressure from commanders to downgrade felonies, talk victims out of filing reports, and even simply refuse to take reports at all. Much of this was predicted by COMPSTAT critics. Even data-heavy crime tracking, it turns out, can fall prey to public choice theory.

Of course you can't fake homicides, and there's no question that both New York's murder rate and its overall crime rate have fallen dramatically since the early 1990s. But there's still fierce debate about why. Giuliani and his supporters credit the combination of COMPSTAT and the "broken windows" theory of crime fighting popularized by law-and-order conservative James Wilson. Under broken windows, by cracking down on petty crime, you create a culture of order and law-abiding behavior that filters up to prevent major crimes as well. So you start making arrests for graffiti, turnstyle-jumping, vagrancy, and the like, giving patrol officers broad powers to stop people and make arrests. Critics of broken windows counter, among other arguments, that many big cities that didn't adopt the policy, including San Diego, Washington, D.C., and Houston, had more significant decreases in the homicide rate over about the same period.

Whatever the causes and effects, the political reality is that the crime rate will never drop to zero, and even after a gaudy 15-year drop, no mayor wants to be in office when crime inches up again, and no high-ranking police commander wants to be the one to give Hizzoner the bad news. All the incentives in the age-old push-pull between safety and civil liberties nudge politicians to err on the side of safety over liberty, in this case even when it's far from clear that the COMPSTAT/broken windows combination is the reason New York is safer.

And so in the same month the COMPSTAT study came out, a Bronx police officer named Adil Polanco came forward to tell New York's WABC that NYPD cops face explicit arrest and citation quotas. "I'm not going to keep arresting innocent people, I'm not going to keep searching people for no reason, I'm not going to keep writing people for no reason, I'm tired of this," Polanco told the TV station. "Our primary job is not to help anybody, our primary job is not to assist anybody, our primary job is to get those numbers and come back with them."

Polanco says he was told to issue at least 20 summonses and make one arrest each month. WABC also obtained a recording of a supervisor that appears to support Polanco's allegations. "If you think 1 and 20 is breaking your balls, guess what you're going to be doing. You're gong to be doing a lot more, a lot more than what they're saying," the supervisor says. In another, he says, "Next week, 25 &1, 35 & 1, and until you decide to quit this job to go to work at a Pizza Hut, this is what you're going to be doing till then." Polanco says the quotas cause officers to arrest and jail people who haven't committed any crime. Most are released the next day without charges.

The data back up Polanco's allegations. Last year, NYPD "stopped and frisked" more citizens than in any year since the department began keeping statistics. ("Stop and frisk" refers to the 1968 Supreme Court case Terry v. Ohio, which allows police to stop, question, and frisk citizens in public without probable cause.) A record 575,000 people were stopped by New York police in 2009, an 8 percent increase over 2008, also a record year. More than half of those stopped in 2009 were also frisked. Nearly 90 percent were black or Latino.

That massive increase in stop-and-frisk operations has also led to an astronomical increase in marijuana arrests, from just 900 in 1993 to more than 40,000 in 2008. Possession of a small amount of marijuana in New York for personal use is not a criminal infraction (it's a fineable offense, akin to jaywalking), but displaying pot in public is; it's an arrestable misdemeanor. According to a 2008 New York Civil Liberties Union report written by Queens College sociologist Harry Levine, New York cops engaging in stop-and-frisks will commonly ask the suspect to empty his pockets. If he's carrying pot, his non-criminal possession of marijuana becomes the arrestable offense of displaying the marijuana in public.

So to summarize, we now have reports that New York City police brass have been pressuring rank-and-file cops to downgrade or bury actual thefts, robberies, and assaults committed against New Yorkers. At the same time, we also now have accusations and credible data suggesting politicians and brass are encouraging the same rank-and-file cops to harass New Yorkers who have committed no crime at all, or have been tricked into committing a consensual crime they never intended.

Burying major crimes with real victims. Inventing petty crimes with no victims. The debate over broken windows theory and COMPSTAT crime fighting won't be resolved any time soon. But even setting aside the obvious concerns over civil liberties and police-community relations in this story, this seems like an improbable formula for a safer city.

Radley Balko is a senior editor at Reason magazine.

Editor's Note: We invite comments and request that they be civil and on-topic. We do not moderate or assume any responsibility for comments, which are owned by the readers who post them. Comments do not represent the views of Reason.com or Reason Foundation. We reserve the right to delete any comment for any reason at any time. Report abuses.

  • ||

    Radley

    You should probably deal with this article
    http://www.city-journal.org/2008/18_3_nypd.html
    for this write-up.

    I think there's more to COMPSTAT's success than simply bureacratic attribution.

  • ||

    "Its “crime dashboard” graphically presents layer upon layer of real-time crime and policing information, updated every 30 seconds. Commanders can check whether any sector of the city is meeting its daily, weekly, and monthly crime-reduction targets,"

    Quotas?

  • ||

    Quotas?

    We prefer the word "Goals"

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  • Pedantula||

    Contemplationist,

    There's not much for to "deal with" here - your link leads to a personality-driven puff piece.

    MacDonald has carved out a niche as America's most cop friendly journalist. It serves her well when she's debunking fake stats about "racial profiling", but serves her poorly when she's boosting fake stats about crime reduction.

  • jacob||

    I think she's a great writer, but the body of her work can be summed up as follows:

    Cops do plenty for black folks, black folks shouldn't get pissed off about police brutality.

    Not saying she's right or wrong, but that's what I've surmised from reading her articles.

  • Jon | Medical Aesthetics||

    I understand that New York City police officials have been pressuring rank-and-file cops to downgrade or bury actual thefts, robberies, and assaults committed against New Yorkers.

    All to improve 'statistics'.

  • ||

  • ||

    The Iron Law applies always and everywhere:

    You get more of what you reward, and less of what you punish.

    Cops are rewarded for making their quotas, so they crank up the petty enforcement to make their quotas.

    Cops are punished for not clearing hard cases, so they bury the hard cases.

    None of this is surprising. Everything comes with an opportunity cost. Whenever you implement an incentive, you always need to ask "what are my people going to stop doing in order to make this target?"

  • ||

    "Cops are punished for not clearing hard cases, so they bury the hard cases."

    Hey R C Dean, if they bury the case isnt that the same as not clearing the case?? just saying..

  • Brett Knoss||

    The statistic abut more arests and policies like arrest quotas encorage abuse of power, and they are misleading.

    In safe communities the police do very little, they watch the phones to ensure there a quick responce to compalints and maintain light patrols. Focusing on how fast the police respond to a calls and on the amount of crime would be a lot more valuable.

  • ||

    New Yorkers have been assured countless times that quotas don't exist. Having said that, I don't know if anyone took it serious.

    I think the broken windows theory should be applied to cops that break the rules.

  • ||

    What about cops that break the windows?

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  • ||

    But you guys just don't get it! If the police going to do Continuous Quality Improvement, they've got to have some indicators to improve! You madrechingaderos (sp?) seem to want substance instead of appearances. You're just not thinking outside the box! Get with the program! Let's be positive here! The police can do this!

  • David E. Gallaher||

    The guy in the picture for this article happens to be an old Marine buddy of mine, John Doman. We renewed our acquaintance at a reunion in 2008 in Quantico, VA. Because he's an actor, he was asked to read the names at a little service by the Vietnam Wall, of our classmates killed. He did a great job, naturally.

  • ||

    Cool.

  • Invisible Finger||

    But why is the Home Depot radio commercial announcer being shown in this article? He's not a cop, he just played one on TV.

  • DJF||

    “””Of course you can't fake homicides,””’

    No, but you can downgrade them. Murder down to manslaughter or to suicide or to accident or to natural causes. Especially since most of the murdered (as opposed to whats on Law and Order) are not high on the social scale and don’t have a lot of pull with anyone.

  • ||

    It's been done in Detroit.

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    “””Of course you can't fake homicides,””’

    Of course you can. In San Francisco Frenchmen stab themselves in the neck then hide the knife and walk upstairs to die in their apartment.

    Suicide.

  • ||

    A Question about the stop and frisk, suppose one were to ignore the officer and continue on you way without responding. What crime would you be guily of/be charged with?

  • Christ on a Cracker||

    "Uppityness" (Yes, that is still a crime)

    And don't wear your good clothes -you're going down!

  • ||

    Failure to comply with a lawful order, interfering with a police officer... then when you continue on your way: resisting arrest, disorderly conduct... You could probably rack up 10 misdemeanors and a couple of felonies before you get to the next block.

    I love it when they charge people that way. Instead of the single action of grabbing a CD and dashing out of the store being one crime, you can get charged for a half-dozen infractions. Kinda crazy, the way we do things.

  • jv||

    Was there a point to all this? Was this the memo that everybody talks about that tells you what the talking points are?

    Wow. The memo writers have gone through the public school system recently it seems . . . . .

  • ||

    Cops routinely lie on the witness stand with their superiors tacit approval. Why should we be surprised that those superiors routinely lie on and rig crime reports?

  • ||

    It's true. It's like they keep recycling the same BS over and over. That's the justice system for you.

  • ||

    Great Article.

  • Some Guy||

    So a special police unit working on a long term project to bring down brutally violent rival drug dealers gets scrapped for buy-and-busts on low-level peddlers.

    I think whichever cop just shoots the guy in the head that makes a decision like that should be promoted to Chief.

  • TK||

    I forgot to mention - last month, my boyfriend was stopped for driving a nice car (my late model BMW). Pulled over to be given "a piece of my mind to a young guy like you" for not using a turn signal to switch lanes. He kept insisting that the officer give him a ticket, so he could fight it. Turn signals are optional in PA, a courtesy, not a requirement. Didn't matter - why not pull over a 20 year old for driving a nice car?

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    Is anyone surprisd Giulianai is a douchebag? He picked Bernie fucking Kerik to be the most powerful pig in theh land

  • ||

    I was a police Sergeant in San Francisco in the Mission District in 1973 and we had a Captain who pushed the "broken window theory" even thouogh I never heard him refer to it as such.

    We did enforce all drug laws---mostly those shooting up . Additionally, we did regulation enforcement laws of bars, especially those who regularly involved with violence.

    To a recognized degree it worked. We did reduce violent crime in general.

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    NYPD is rewarded for making their quotas for the day and that's all that matters to them...

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  • ||

    Balko doesn't really address the "broken windows" theory - instead, he creates a straw man that pressure from authorities to gin up good stats is wrong. We all agree on that, even those that espouse the broken windows theory, because ginned-up stats are false, and don't provide a true measure of the safety of a neighborhood or city. If he wants to disprove the theory, he'll have to come up with another argument, because the misuse of the theory does not disprove it.

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    "That massive increase in stop-and-frisk operations has also led to an astronomical increase in marijuana arrests, from just 900 in 1993 to more than 40,000 in 2008. Possession of a small amount of marijuana in New York for personal use is not a criminal infraction (it's a fineable offense, akin to jaywalking), but displaying pot in public is; it's an arrestable misdemeanor."

    Yeah but the cops here really dont care that much about weed, they just hate crack and most of the time dont even fine you for the weed.

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