The Volokh Conspiracy

Mostly law professors | Sometimes contrarian | Often libertarian | Always independent | Est. 2002

The Volokh Conspiracy

Donald Trump

Cato Institute President Peter Goettler on Why Trump is no Libertarian

He also explains how the same is true of the current leadership of the Libertarian Party.

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Donald Trump outside Manhattan Criminal Court
Donald Trump. (Angela Weiss/UPI/Newscom)

 

In a recent Washington Post op ed, Cato Institute President Peter Goettler (the head of the nation's leading libertarian think tank) explains why Donald Trump is no libertarian. Much of this should be obvious, but many people (including some libertarians) tend to ignore it:

We know by now that Donald Trump likes nothing better than stepping onto a stage, hearing his name chanted by an adoring crowd, and flashing his familiar thumbs-up sign. This week, the former president will do just that under the bright lights at the Libertarian National Convention in D.C.

It will be the first time in U.S. history that a presidential candidate of a rival party will address the convention of a party that is presumably gathering to nominate its own candidate. And this strange turn of events has many libertarians scratching their heads…

[T]he list of Trump policies and postures that libertarians oppose is long and dangerous. He allowed government spending and debt to continue to spiral upward, increasing the national debt by $8.4 trillion. Federal outlays soared from $4 trillion his first year (2017) to $6.8 trillion in his last year. He persists in railing against immigration and free trade, supports further expansion of presidential power and seeks to crack down on political enemies….

Of course, both the Republican and Democratic parties share an addiction to executive power. And neither is above using extralegal means to accomplish policy objectives, as demonstrated by President Biden's brazen efforts to cancel student loan debt. And, of course, the supreme example is the Capitol riot of Jan. 6, 2021, a tragic event that celebrated a total disregard for the peaceful transfer of power and constitutional order. Libertarians know that the Constitution and the rule of law are essential elements in keeping government power constrained.

This list of Trump's anti-libertarian policies could easily be extended. For example, he advocates imposing the death penalty on drug dealers, and wants to transform the War on Drugs into a real war by attacking Mexico. Few issues define libertarianism so clearly as opposition to the War on Drugs.

As Goettler also points out, the current leadership of the Libertarian Party (which invited Trump to address their convention) isn't libertarian, either:

[T]oday's party leadership has been taken over by a faction that places it well outside the bounds of libertarianism altogether and appears comfortable with right-wing authoritarianism. Some tweets issued from state libertarian parties and other libertarian operators can only be described as shockingly racist or antisemitic — the Libertarian Party of Michigan, for instance, posted a cartoon portraying Jews as puppet masters of the Democratic and Republican parties — and would be more welcome on the alt-right than among true libertarians.

This situation arose because in 2022, the Party was taken over by the right-wing populist "Mises Caucus," which effectively exploited flaws in party rules. Many members and donors have fled the party since then, bringing it to its weakest state in decades.

The Libertarian Party has never represented more than a minority of American libertarians. Many stayed away because of factional ideological disputes or because they believed third party politics is likely to be ineffective in an electoral system heavily tilted towards the two major parties. I myself was skeptical of the LP for a combination of both those reasons. But the right-wing populist takeover has alienated the Party from most of the broader libertarian community far more than was ever the case previously.

I don't agree with every point in Goettler's article. For example, I think he is probably overoptimistic about trends in public opinion. While it is moving in a more libertarian direction on some issues, the opposite is true on many others. I also do not believe libertarians should support a broad reduction in the nation's involvement in "foreign affairs."  Doing so would, I think, increase the influence of authoritarian states like China and Russia, thereby actually weakening prospects for liberty in much of the world. This is a longstanding divergence between my views and that of many other libertarians.

Be that as it may, Goettler does an excellent job of outlining Trump's flaws and those of the current Libertarian Party leadership. Neither deserves the support of people with any genuine commitment to liberty.

NOTE: As my bio at this site states, I am the Simon Chair in Constitutional Studies at the Cato Institute, as well as a professor at George Mason University. If readers believe I am biased in favor of Peter Goettler's views because of this connection, they are welcome to do so. But everything said above is consistent with views I have expressed for many years, including long before I became the Simon Chair at Cato in late 2022.

Inflation

Inflation, the Economy, and Political Ignorance

Public ignorance has a big impact on voter atttudes on a major issue in the 2024 election.

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Inflation and high prices have emerged as major issues in the 2024 presidential election. Public anger over these issues - and the general state of the economy - may be the single biggest obstacle to President Biden's reelection chances. A recent Harris poll commissioned by the Guardian finds that public attitudes on inflation and the state of the economy are heavily influenced by ignorance. While there really was a big increase in inflation in 2021-22, the current state of the economy is much better than most voters believe:

The poll highlighted many misconceptions people have about the economy, including:

  • 55% believe the economy is shrinking, and 56% think the US is experiencing a recession, though the broadest measure of the economy, gross domestic product (GDP), has been growing.

  • 49% believe the S&P 500 stock market index is down for the year, though the index went up about 24% in 2023 and is up more than 12% this year.

  • 49% believe that unemployment is at a 50-year high, though the unemployment rate has been under 4%, a near 50-year low….

The poll underscored people's complicated emotions around inflation. The vast majority of respondents, 72%, indicated they think inflation is increasing. In reality, the rate of inflation has fallen sharply from its post-Covid peak of 9.1% and has been fluctuating between 3% and 4% a year.

In April, the inflation rate went down from 3.5% to 3.4% – far from inflation's 40-year peak of 9.1% in June 2022 – triggering a stock market rally that pushed the Dow Jones index to a record high.

The poll also finds that 58% of respondents blame Biden for the state of the economy. This is part of a broader pattern where people credit and blame incumbent presidents for short-term economic trends, even though the latter generally have only modest influence over them.

The Guardian, of course, is a left-wing media outlet, and that viewpoint may well have influenced them to commission this survey. But Harris is a generally respected polling firm, and I don't see major flaws in the wording of the relevant questions in this survey.

Biden probably does deserve some blame for the massive outbreak of inflation in the immediate post-pandemic period. He supported massive spending increases that helped create a situation where there was a vast increase in the amount of money in the economy that was not matched by a comparable increase in production. But most of that spending was also supported by the Republicans, including President Donald Trump, when he was still in office in 2020-21. Biden also deserves blame for continuing many of Trump's tariffs (which caused significant price increases and reductions in consumer welfare) and adding some of his own.  Nonetheless, few of the policies that helped cause inflation are ones that Biden supports, but Trump would have acted differently on. There was also bipartisan support for the Federal Reserve's massive infusion of money into the economy during Covid.

The evidence in this poll is just the tip of a larger iceberg of public ignorance about inflation, prices, and related issues. For example, a February poll found that 59% of Americans believe corporate greed is a "major cause" of inflation.  Economists overwhelmingly reject that view - not because corporations aren't greedy for profits but because there is no good reason to believe corporations are more greedy during periods of high inflation or that their greed somehow has a bigger impact during such times. Corporate greed is a constant, and therefore cannot explain a variable like inflation or price changes. In this case, public ignorance may be helping Democrats at the margin, as they emphasize curbing corporate greed much more than the GOP does.

Ignorance may also explain why voters angry about inflation and high prices tend to back Trump as a result. In so doing, they ignore the fact that many of his policies would make price increases much worse. For example, Trump's plan to impose a 10% tariff on all imported goods would massively increase prices on many goods, costing the average American household about $1700 per year. This goes far beyond anything Biden proposes, though his trade record is far from wonderful.

Trump's plan for massive deportation of undocumented immigrants would also predictably lower production and increase prices in much of the economy, thereby likely stimulating inflation more generally. Contrary to popular perceptions, such deportations also destroy more jobs for native-born workers than they create, thereby making it even harder for many families to make ends meet.

Trump also plans to undermine the independence of the Federal Reserve. If he succeeds, that is likely to worsen inflation, as well. Historically, more independent central banks do a better job of constraining inflation than those more subject to political pressure.

Biden's record on inflation and prices is far from ideal. But Trump's policies are likely to be much worse. If voters focused on these issues understood that, they would be trending in a different direction.

Public ignorance about inflation and the economy is part of a broader problem of widespread political ignorance that degrades the quality of public policy. While in this instance, the ignorance is benefiting Trump and the GOP, the problem is not limited to any one side of the political spectrum and doesn't always benefit the political right rather than the left. There are many examples of ignorance and misconceptions that are disproportionately common among Democrats and left-wingers.

The fundamental problem is not that voters are stupid, but that the low chance that any one vote will decisively effect electoral outcomes gives most voters strong incentives to be "rationally ignorant" about political issues and to do a poor job of evaluating the information they do learn. That problem affects voters on all parts of the political spectrum.

It's also worth noting that public ignorance  doesn't just influence voter decisions between the available options, as with the choice between Biden and Trump this year. It also affect the quality of those options themselves. If parties faced a more knowledgeable and discerning electorate, they would have incentives to nominate better candidates, choose better policies, or some combination of both.

Instead, parties and candidates are incentivized to exploit public ignorance for electoral advantage. Trump does this on a truly massive scale, and it played a key role in his rise to power in 2016. But more conventional politicians, including left-wing ones like Barack Obama, engage in such chicanery, as well.

There is no quick and simple solution to the problem of ignorance. In my view, the best approach to addressing widespread voter ignorance and bias is to empower people to make more decisions by "voting with their feet" and fewer at the ballot box. Foot voters have better incentives to seek out information and evaluate it objectively than ballot box voters do. I go over the strengths and weaknesses other possible solutions in my book Democracy and Political Ignorance and in this more recent article.

Sadly, we are unlikely to make significant progress in curbing political ignorance in time for the 2024 election. But perhaps we can at least increase awareness of the problem, which might make it easier to address in the future.

A Family Affair for President Biden's Nominees To First and Sixth Circuits

CA6 nominee Karla M. Campbell was Judge Stranch's first law clerk, and CA1 nominee Justice Julia M. Lipez is filling the seat her father formerly held.

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President Biden has now made his fiftieth round of judicial nominees. The two circuit nominees stand out.

First, in January 2024, Judge Jane Branstetter Stranch of the Sixth Circuit announced that she would take senior status on the confirmation of her successor. Now, Biden has nominated Karla M. Campbell to fill Stranch's seat. Campbell  spent her entire career at the Nashville firm formerly known as Branstetter, Stranch & Jennings, PLLC. If those names look familiar, it should. Jane Branstetter also started her career at that firm, where her father, Cecil D. Branstetter, was a founding partner. And Jane's husband, James Stranch, also worked at that firm. And wouldn't you know it, Campbell was Judge Stranch's first law clerk on the Court of Appeals. It is very much a family affair! Did Judge Stranch have any say in picking her replacement? We know that the President nominated Judge Gibbons's former law clerk to replace her. As a general rule, I would offer a rebuttable presumption: whenever a Judge is replaced by a former law clerk, there were some backroom dealings.

Second, in November 2023, Judge William Kayatta of the First Circuit announced his intention to take senior status on October 31, 2024 (just before the election!), or upon the confirmation of his successor, whichever happens sooner. Kayatta, who was confirmed in 2012, has only been in the seat for about twelve years--a fairly short tenure on the court of appeals. He was nominated at the not-so-young age of 58, so quickly hit the Rule of 80. Twelve years ago, Kayatta filled the Maine seat of Judge Kermit Lipez. Who did President Biden nominate to fill Kayatta's seat? Julia M. Lipez on the Maine Superior Court. And if that name sounds familiar, it should. Julia Lipez is the daughter of Kermit Lipez.

I imagine that any father would be very proud that his daughter was nominated as a federal judge. But did the father have any role to play in the selection of his child for the court? I've seen what parents do to get their kids into elite kindergardens. I imagine a similar treatment would apply to the federal judiciary. Obviously, it was Judge Kayatta's decision to take senior status. But I the longtime judge in the circuit probably had some sway, and could have suggested to Kayatta, and the powers that be in Maine, that his daughter would be a good fit. I would offer another similar rebuttable presumption: when a federal judge is appointed to a court on which a close relative sits, there were some backroom dealings. Another family affair.

It should be easy enough for the First Circuit to avoid putting the Lipezs on the same panel. And the senior-status Kermit would generally not sit on the en banc court, but if Kermit is on a panel for a case that goes en banc, he would be entitled to sit on the same court as his daughter. Then again, the First Circuit, which has zero active status Republican appointees, will probably never go en banc because it is about ideologically diverse as Senator Whitehouse's private beach club in Newport.

What about the federal nepotism statute, you might ask? Doesn't federal law prohibit appointing a father-and-daughter to the same federal court? The Office of Legal Counsel construed the statute to not apply to judicial nominations, to avoid any constitutional doubts of whether the statute was unconstitutional. Thus William A. Fletcher could serve on the Ninth Circuit along with his mother, Betty Fletcher. There have been other relatives on the same federal court. Learned Hand and his cousin Augustus Hand both served on the Second Circuit. Morris Arnold and Richard Arnold both served on the Eighth Circuit. Diana Motz serves on the Fourth Circuit, while her husband serves on the District of Maryland.

I am working on an article now to deal with judges who time their senior status to hand-pick their successors. It is unseemly, and I think it happens more often than we know.

Update: Judge Kermit Lipez will fully retire if his daughter is confirmed. He cited the statute, a concern that did not bother Judge Betty Fletcher:

Free Speech

Libel Case Against Internet Sleuth / "True Crime" Podcaster, Related to Kiely Rodni Case, Can Go Forward

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From Tuesday's decision in Robertson v. Upchurch by Judge William Campbell (M.D. Tenn.):

Plaintiffs allege that [Defendant Ryan] Upchurch is a media personality who has approximately 3,140,000 subscribers on YouTube. Plaintiffs also allege that Kiely Rodni, the granddaughter of Plaintiff David Robertson and daughter of Plaintiff Daniel Rodni, disappeared after a party near Tahoe National Forest on August 6, 2022.

Plaintiffs state that on August 13, 2022, after Kiely Rodni's disappearance, Upchurch began making social media post about her disappearance and offered "theories" of what happened to Kiely Rodni, including that other YouTube personalities were involved in or responsible for Kiely Rodni's disappearance. Kiely Rodni's body was discovered on August 21, 2022. That same day, authorities confirmed that the body was "more than likely" Kiely Rodni and that an autopsy had been ordered to confirm the identity. On that same date, Upchurch learned that Kiely Rodni's body had been discovered and purported to offer a "prayer" for Kiely Rodni and her family.

On that date, Upchurch posted that "nobody should really be doing anything about this now. There really shouldn't be anything put anywhere that's gonna make her mom even more devastated than she's already gonna be." Plaintiffs allege that Upchurch accepted on August 21, 2022, that Kiely Rodni was real, that she had died, and that further online posting relating to her could traumatize her family.

On August 22, 2022, Upchurch posted a video in which he appeared to express his condolences to Kiley Rodni's family. On August 23, 2022, authorities confirmed the identity of Kiely Rodni's body. On August 28, 2022, Upchurch posted a video in which he accused the sheriff's office that identified Kiely Rodni of being a "fake police department" and stated that Kiely Rodni's disappearance was fake and that the police were involved in faking her existence and death. On August 29, 2022, Upchurch posted a video that Kiely Rodni and her family were "not real" and that her death was a "scam" to raise money on GoFundMe.

On September 1, 2022, Upchurch posted a phone number and address for Daniel Rodni. Plaintiffs allege that a result of this video and the ensuing negative attention he received, Daniel Rodni went into hiding and made substantial investments in home security, surveillance, and cameras. On September 3, 2022, Upchurch posted a video stating that "Kiely Rodni is not Kiely Rodni. Kiely Rodni is Callie Ross. Callie's Ross's dad is fake Kiely Rodni's grandpa…". On that same date, Upchurch posted a video stating "I would not say this unless I was 100% confident. Kiely Rodni is not real. Her grandfather is not real. Her dad is not real. Her mom is not real…All the pictures and videos you're seeing of this Kiely Rodni person are actual pictures and videos from someone else named Callie, that are five to seven years old."

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The Language Wars

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One of the most provocative manifestations of the culture wars around sex and gender is the battle over the operative words—what they are, what they mean, how they can and can't be used, and whether they can be said at all. I introduce this topic in the beginning of On Sex and Gender:

[i]f you're reading this book, you already know that the words we use to talk about sex and gender are contested, starting with sex and gender themselves—but also woman and female, man and male, transgender, and so on. Because language—the words we have and how we define them—affects what we can communicate and ultimately what we understand, the people who run movements understandably want to control it. The left is much more aggressive and organized about this, but the effort is made on both sides.

In this book, I try to define the words as I go and explain how I'm using them, but in general, my goal is neither to be disrespectful of nor to pander to one side or the other. Rather, it's to speak freely and honestly; to communicate not to obfuscate; and to reach people who want to learn and to engage.

The battle over the words runs throughout the book but the focused discussion is in Chapters Three and Eight.

Chapter Three is on the answer to the question "What is sex?" from progressive advocacy. It features the story around Senator Marsha Blackburn's now infamous question to then Judge Ketani Brown Jackson, "Can you please provide a definition for the word 'woman'?" In that context, I summarize the trans movement's goals and discuss its strategies, which include changing the definition of sex. I explain that,

[h]owever they're ultimately motivated, to take down the traditional biological definition of the word sex, progressive advocates working in this space have focused on two related efforts. The first is exporting the idea from academia that sex as we know it—as a complete body designed toward reproductive ends—isn't real but rather socially constructed in service of the patriarchy. The second is changing the common usage and legal definitions of the words male (and man and boy) and female (and woman and girl) so that they're consistent with this deconstruction.

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Flagpole to Heaven

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I've learned a few things this past week about the Alitos. It seems that they have flag poles at their homes, and use flags to convey messages. I'm not sure if the Alitos have taken classes on flag semaphore. What those messages are, exactly, I do not know.

At the Alito home in Virginia, Mrs. Alito flew the flag upside down as part of some neighborly spat. Was this some sort of secret symbol that Martha-Ann was trying to stop the steal? There is no actual evidence of this, but countless news stories, and politicians, accepted this insinuation as obvious. I think it far more likely that she was trying to signal distress with her neighbors.

Last summer, at the Alito home in New Jersey, an "Appeal to Heaven" flag was flown. I had never heard of this Pine Tree Flag before. The flag traces its roots to George Washington's Continental Army in 1775. (Before you read Wikipedia, review the changes made in the past 24 hours.)

According to the New York Times, the flag can now be seen as "a symbol of support [1] for former President Donald J. Trump, [2] for a religious strand of the 'Stop the Steal' campaign and [3] for a push to remake American government in Christian terms." A bit of a hodgepodge to be sure. Did Mr. or Mrs. Alito choose to fly this flag to "stop the steal" nearly three years after the election? That seems a stretch. Again, there is no actual evidence of this, but countless news stories, and politicians, will accept this insinuation as obvious.

I think it is far more likely that the Alitos used the flag to convey some sort of message about religion. Exactly what, I'm not sure. But let's assume that Justice Alito personally chose to fly this flag. Here, at least, he did not blame his wife, so we might infer that he was aware of the flag. Much of the New York Times articles focuses on whether Alito should recuse from any Trump-related case. But I'm surprised they missed a more obvious angle: if Alito is trying to endorse some kind of Christian nationalism, shouldn't he recuse in all Free Exercise and Establishment Clause cases? Why limit the recusal attacks to the election cases?

If you'd like to go down that road, there is plenty of other evidence you can use. Justice Alito has publicly attended mass at various churches throughout the country and given speeches that lamented how religious liberty has come under siege. Forget cryptic symbols about an arboreal flag. Alito has been quite overt with his views on the topic.

I know it is gauche to talk about Justice Ginsburg, but I will. In August 2013, she made headlines by being the first Supreme Court Justice to preside at a same-sex wedding. In January 2015, the Supreme Court granted cert in Obergefell v. Hodges, and in June 2014 Justice Ginsburg joined a majority opinion that found a right to same-sex marriage somewhere in the penumbras of the Fourteenth Amendment. The act of marrying a same-sex couple, far more than a cryptic flag, signaled Justice Ginsburg's views on the topic. She did not recuse. It is true enough that Ginsburg apologized for her comments about President Trump, but she did not recuse in Trump-related cases that turned on his conduct during the election. (Mark Paoletta makes these points in WSJ.)

The Times article observed that today, the Alitos' flagpole to heaven was "bare." Maybe they can still whisper their thoughts in the recesses of their homes.

Religion and the Law

Judicial Discrimination in Favor of the More Religious Parent

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From Tilley v. Gibbs, decided yesterday by the Mississippi Court of Appeals:

John and Tiffany were married on April 6, 2019, in Lowndes County, Mississippi. The parties had one child, V.G., born prior to the marriage on December 19, 2018. On December 14, 2021, John filed his original complaint for divorce against Tiffany…. On September 16, 2022, the chancery court issued its opinion and final judgment, granting an irreconcilable differences divorce, awarding joint legal custody with John being awarded physical custody. The court awarded Tiffany visitation and ordered her to pay child support of $490.00 per month….

The court went through the various factors that Mississippi courts consider in child custody cases; but I thought this was particularly noteworthy:

Tiffany also asserts that the home, school, and community records should have been deemed a neutral factor because the chancellor relied on two issues she believes do not favor either party—John's church attendance and her potential move. In support of her position on appeal, she highlights only a portion of the relevant evidence submitted at trial, including that they did not go to church often while married, John only began attending church more regularly after the separation, and John previously indicated to her that he was an atheist. She further argued that her admitted plan to relocate should not be held against her because the specifics of it require speculation at this juncture.

In evaluating part of this factor, our "supreme court has affirmed that a chancellor may consider the issue of religion when determining custody." Davidson v. Coit (Miss. Ct. App. 2005) (quoting Weigand v. Houghton (Miss. 1999)). Evidence has previously been considered to weigh in favor of a parent, such as "a father[,] who took his child to church." Montgomery v. Montgomery (Miss. Ct. App. 2009) (citing Pacheco v. Pacheco (Miss. Ct. App. 2000))…

After reviewing the evidence as a whole, the chancellor noted that John has been taking V.G. to the same church for years and that Tiffany stated she "does not attend church now, as I don't feel it is required." Further, this was not the only basis for the chancellor's ultimate ruling on this factor, as he also concluded that John plans to remain near V.G.'s family and friends while Tiffany plans to move to a different state were persuasive. We find sufficient evidence was presented to support the chancellor's decision to weigh this factor in John's favor.

Such consideration of the parties' churchgoing strikes me as a violation of the First Amendment, for reasons I discussed in this article. Perhaps the custody decision in John's favor was sound for other reasons; but I don't think the question of which parent is the more religious—or the more regular church attendee—can be a permissible factor here. To quote Bonjour v. Bonjour (Alaska 1979), which strikes me as taking the correct approach (and indeed one that remains correct despite the changes in Establishment Clause doctrine since),

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A List (with Links) of Antisemitism Lawsuits Filed against American Universities

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Along with dozens of Title VI administrative complaints filed with the Office of Civil Rights, at least fourteen colleges and universities are facing lawsuits over their handling of antisemitism on campus since October 7. I asked around, and no one seems to have a compiled a list of defendants with links to the complaints, so I've created one, which I will update as needed. Let me know if I have missed any. UPDATE: It turns out that there is a website keeping up with the litigation, though it's currently missing a few of the ones I have listed below.

Art Institute of Chicago

Carnegie Mellon

Cooper Union

Columbia University I

Columbia University II

Columbia University III

Haverford College

Harvard University I

Harvard University II 

MIT

New York University

Northwestern

Rutgers I

Rutgers II

University of California Berkeley

University of California Los Angeles

University of Pennsylvania

University of Virginia

New, 5/22: UC Davis

UPDATE: The success in these cases will obviously depend on the individual facts, the judges involved, and in some cases on state law claims that provide for particularly onerous damages. On the civil rights claims, in general I find the double standard in how universities enforce their rules to be the most persuasive claim. To win those claims, the plaintiffs don't have to get into the borderline between harassment and free speech, or whether the university has done the minimum necessary to combat harassment to meet Title VI. They only need to show, as seems pretty clear in most instances, that Jewish students who complain about antisemitism and their complaints are treated differently than complaints of discrimination by other groups, and/or that universities enforce their disciplinary rules differently with regard to antisemitic acts than with regard to other violations off school rules.

I have spoken to a half dozen or so attorneys involved in litigation on behalf of plaintiffs who experienced antisemitism on campus. Universally, their concern is not whether claims are strong enough to get past motions to dismiss and summary judgment. Rather, they regret that students on many campuses feel so intimidated that it's hard to persuade them to sign up as plaintiffs. That's a major reason why there are so many administrative complaints as opposed to lawsuits, the former don't require a named plaintiff.

Free Speech

"Stealthing" #TheyLied Libel Case Can Go Forward

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From Luke v. Schwartz, decided yesterday by Judge Robert Pitman (W.D. Tex.); of course, as usual, keep in mind that at this stage of the lawsuit these are only allegations:

Plaintiff David Luke … alleges the following facts …. Luke dated [defendant Jeffrey] Schwartz's daughter, Emma Schwartz …, … while they were both 17-year-olds attending Park City High School in Park City Utah. [Sex between 17-year-olds is not itself criminal in Utah. -EV] Luke and Emma had consensual sex on multiple occasions during their relationship. Luke alleges that he and Emma had a tacit agreement that sex without a condom was an acceptable option as Emma had initiated unprotected sex once before and had performed unprotected oral sex on Luke on more than one occasion.

On December 18, 2021, Luke and Emma had sex. Luke was intoxicated and Emma was not. Luke removed his condom during sex, which he did not believe would upset Emma because they had engaged in unprotected sex before. During the encounter on December 18, Emma did not realize Luke had removed his condom until she noticed it lying on the bed next to her. Emma told Luke that she "was upset by him removing the condom without discussing it with her first, and he apologized." A few weeks later, Luke and Emma broke up. Luke alleges that Emma tried to get back together with Luke and "certainly did not act like he had sexually assaulted her."

In May of 2022, Emma, Schwartz, and Emma's mother, filed a civil lawsuit against Luke and his parents in Utah state court (the "Utah civil suit"). Emma and her mother then went to the Summit County District Attorney's office and "complained that [Emma] had been sexually assaulted." Emma gave a full statement to the District Attorney's office in which she claimed that because Luke "had taken the condom off … without her verbal consent, she was a victim of sexual assault." The District Attorney declined to prosecute Luke because "those acts do not amount to sexual assault under Utah Law." The Utah civil suit proceeded publicly for about a year before being sealed and dismissed.

Luke alleges that Schwartz has been "obsessed with [Luke]'s family and specifically obsessed with doing anything he can to hurt [Luke]." Schwartz sent an email to Bobby Orr … stating that "[Luke] sexually assaulted my daughter during their senior year in high school." Orr is on the board of the Phi Gamma Delta Fraternity at the University of Texas where Luke attends college. Luke is a member of Phi Gamma Delta. Luke further alleges that Schwartz "has also engaged in a letter-writing campaign sending similarly defamatory statements to members of sororities across Texas in an effort to destroy Plaintiff's reputation and turn private allegations into matters of public knowledge."

Schwartz has also, according to Luke, used social media to identify sorority girls who may come into contact with Luke at the University of Texas and has sent "these girls copies of the unverified civil complaint" (the "Utah complaint") from the Utah civil suit which has been sealed by the Utah court. Schwartz sent the Utah complaint with no return address and "no cover letter explaining who the letter was from or why they [were] receiving it." Emma, her mother, and Schwartz have also been engaging in legislative advocacy to change the criminal sexual assault laws in Utah so that taking off a condom during sex without verbal consent—also known as "stealthing"—is considered criminal sexual assault in the state.

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Politics

SMU Law Review Symposium on Students for Fair Admissions

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I was pleased to participate in an excellent symposium at the SMU Law Review on Students for Fair Admissions v. UNC. This journal made a strong effort to seek out diverse viewpoints. This is one of the more balanced symposium issues I've seen in years. Well done. Here is the roster of submissions:

Here is the abstract of my article, Students for Fair Admissions v. Universities for Division, Exclusion, and Inequity: The Petitions, the Arguments, and the Decision:

Students for Fair Admissions v. Harvard will be studied by law students for generations, in much the same way that Bakke and Grutter were studied before. But there is much more to SFFA than the final decisions about Harvard University and the University of North Carolina will reveal. This Article, published for a symposium by the SMU Law Review, focuses on three stages of the litigation: the petitions, the oral arguments, and the decision. Part I recounts the complex procedural history, which began in federal courts in Massachusetts and North Carolina. The Harvard case reached the Supreme Court first, while the UNC case lingered in District Court. The Supreme Court called for the views of the Solicitor General. By doing so, the Court could punt the case to the following term, which allowed the UNC case to catch up, and Justice Breyer's replacement to be confirmed. Both cases would be argued on October 31, 2022.

Part II parses the questions asked by all nine Justices during oral argument. Chief Justice Roberts signaled up front that he would rule against the universities. Justice Thomas repeated his charge that arguments in favor of racial preferences mirror the arguments made by segregationists. Justice Alito worried about discrimination against Asian-American applicants. Justice Sotomayor focused on the detailed findings of the trial courts. Justice Kagan questioned whether SFFA would favor universities with few, or no racial minorities on campus. Justice Gorsuch looked to Title VI of the Civil Rights Act of 1964. Justice Kavanaugh suggested preferences could be reserved for the descendants of slaves. Justice Barrett inquired about the expiration date of Grutter. And Justice Jackson recounted how the Reconstruction Congress used racial preferences for the freedmen.
Finally, Part III breaks down four aspects of the Court's decision. SFFA eliminated the "educational benefits" rationale for affirmative action. Chief Justice Roberts continues to take inconsistent positions in similar cases during the same term. Justice Kavanaugh continues to follow the lead of Chief Justice Roberts in leading cases, including SFFA. And I defend Justice Jackson's likely-involvement in the Harvard case, notwithstanding her recusal.

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The Crossroads Moment

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In a 2022 law review article called Sex Neutrality, I adopt the classification of sex in American legal history as being in three successive overlapping phases starting with structural sexism, followed by sex skepticism, with sex blindness either already here (in come contexts) or on the horizon (in others). Chapter Seven of my new book On Sex and Gender makes this sequence accessible for a general audience, taking the reader on an adventure that begins with Myra Bradwell's case against Illinois (1872), through the battles over the Equal Rights Amendment, the groundbreaking sex discrimination cases of the 1970s starting with Reed v. Reed (1971) that marked the first turn from structural sexism to sex skepticism, the dialing up of the skepticism we see in the cases through the 1980s, and the race and sex discrimination cases of the early 1990s that immediately precede United States v. Virginia (1996).

In United States v. Virginia—known as VMI for the defendant Virginia Military Institute—the Court faced the choice whether to continue to be (by that point highly) skeptical of sex classifications or to move to sex blindness as it had just done in a set of cases that involved affirmative not subordinating race discrimination. In the book, I join others who have argued that it chose not to take this last step in part because the justices, including Ruth Bader Ginsburg and Sandra Day O'Connor, agreed that sex is importantly different from race. Here's how I put the point:

Ginsburg's VMI opinion also appears to be a response to how equal-protection law had developed in the three short years from 1993, when she joined the Court, through 1996 when VMI was decided. The justices had been debating the costs and benefits of sex blindness—il n'y a pas de difference entre les hommes et les femmes—at the same time as they were debating the costs and benefits of race blindness, i.e, of "eliminat[ing] entirely from governmental decisionmaking such irrelevant factors as a human being's race."

Given the opportunity finally to cement the analogy of sex to race and formally to take sex over the line to strict scrutiny, Ginsburg chose instead to distinguish between the two. In so doing, her opinion not only froze in place O'Connor's approach from Hogan, but it added a list of objectives that could make it possible for a sex-based classification to pass muster—objectives that, after Adarand, would be insufficient as justifications for race-based classifications.

Instead, the Court allowed that sex classifications could still pass muster—we could continue to see sex in law—if their raison d'être wasn't sexism but rather correcting disparities, promoting equality, and generally developing the nation's people. In Ginsburg's words,

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30 Months After Only Three Justices Would Have Granted Cert in Roman Catholic Diocese of Albany, the New York Court of Appeals Holds Fulton Changed Nothing

Decisions from Justices Kavanaugh and Barrett continue to linger.

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Since 2016, the Roman Catholic Diocese of Albany has been challenging a New York law that mandates that insurance policies must cover abortions. The state courts upheld this mandate as a neutral law under Employment Division v. Smith. In June 2021, the Supreme Court decided Fulton. Justices Thomas, Alito, and Gorsuch would have overruled Smith. But Justices Barrett and Kavanaugh had some questions. After Fulton was decided Roman Catholic Diocese of Albany wound its way to the Court.

In November 2021, after several relists, the Court GVR'd the case in light of Fulton. Justices Thomas, Alito, and Gorsuch would have granted the petition. There was no reason for a GVR, since Fulton did not actually change Smith. The options were grant or deny. At the time, I wrote "It is very obvious to me that Justices Kavanaugh and Barrett have no interest in deciding another Free Exercise Clause case now–especially after the denial of review in the Maine case."

Since that GVR, the case moved its way through the state courts. In June 2022, the New York Appellate Division ruled that Fulton did not change the relevant standard, so the Diocese lost again. I observed:

And why did Fulton not change the relevant standard? Because in Fulton, Justices Barrett and Kavanaugh declined to overrule Employment Division v. Smith, a decision that required courts to deferentially review laws that burden religion. Even when Justices Barrett and Kavanaugh joined a conservative majority opinion, they tempered its reach.

Today, nearly two years later, the case was decided by the New York Court of Appeals (the highest court in New York). And, no surprise, the court ruled against the Diocese. The court held that since Fulton did not overrule Smith, the prior New York precedent decided under Smith still stands.

When the Court GVRs a case, it may wipe the issue off a Justice's plate, and conscience. But the matter continues in the lower courts. Lawyers on both sides dutifully litigate the issue. Judges and clerks have to write opinions. The Diocese continues to operate under a sword of Damocles. Yet, throughout this entire process, the ending is preordained. In 2021, there was no reason to GVR the Albany case because it was decided under Smith, a precedent that Justices Kavanaugh and Barrett did not overrule. The GVR wasted everyone's time.

And here we are. Three years after Fulton and thirty months after the GVR, the case is ready for review. No doubt the Diocese will file a cert petition. It will probably come up for conference later this year. The Court could grant the case, and add it to its ever-shrinking docket for argument in February. If so, there would be a nearly four year gap between the GVR and the decision in June 2025. Or the Justices could stew on the petition for a while and grant in February, kicking the case to the OT 2025 term, with a decision by June 2026, five full years after Fulton. Or, the Court could deny cert altogether.

If after all of these deliberations, we are still left with three Justices dissenting from certiorari, what will we have to show for it? The Court should have put the case out of its misery in 2021 rather than wasting everyone's time.

I realize the symbol of the Court is a turtle--slow, deliberate, and careful. But these sorts of GVRs are not like the turtle. They are like the ostrich--sticking your head in the sand and hoping a problem goes away. But it never does.

For what it's worth, there is another case in the pipeline that would allow the Court to revisit whether to overrule Smith. New York compels Amish schoolchildren, living in remote communities, to receive vaccinations that conflict with their sincerely held religious beliefs and Amish way of life. The District Court ruled against the Amish plaintiffs in Miller v. McDonald, relying on Smith. The case was recently briefed before the Second Circuit. The plaintiffs squarely preserved the question of whether Smith should be overruled. There is a similar case pending up for conference next month from Connecticut involving K-12 education, though I tend to think the Amish case may be a better vehicle.

Zoning

The High Cost of Commercial Land-Use Restrictions

Exclusionary zoning that targets housing gets more attention. But a new study highlights how restrictions on commercial uses also cause great harm.

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Skyscrapers under construction against the Manhattan skyline.
22tomtom | Dreamstime.com

Legal and policy debates about land-use restrictions tend to focus on exclusionary zoning that restricts housing construction. Such restrictions do indeed cause great harm, and also violate constitutional rights. But restrictions on commercial uses of property also have major negative effects. A recent National Bureau of Economic Research  (NBER) study by economists Fil Babalievsky, Kyle Herkenhoff, Lee Ohanian and Edward Prescott attempts to quantify the effect. Here is the abstract:

Commercial real estate accounts for roughly 20% of the U.S. fixed asset stock, and commercial land use is highly regulated. However, little is known about the quantitative impact of these regulations on economic activity or consumer welfare. This paper develops a spatial general equilibrium model of the U.S. economy that includes commercial real estate regulations and congestion effects, the latter of which provide a rationale for such regulations. The model is tailored to exploit the near-universe of CoreLogic's commercial, parcel-level, property tax records to construct a quantitative index of commercial real estate regulations for nearly every commercial property. We use the model to evaluate the positive and normative impacts of commercial land use deregulations. Moderately relaxing commercial regulations across all U.S. cities yields large allocative efficiency effects, with output gains of about 3 percent to 6 percent and welfare gains of about 3 percent to 9 percent of lifetime consumption. We also find significant positive and normative gains from deregulation with 40 percent of the labor force working remotely.

Ohanian summarizes their findings in a bit more detail here:

The size of a building relative to the value of a parcel of land is influenced by the stringency of the land-use regulations governing the parcel. For example, the skyscrapers in midtown and downtown Manhattan that sit on extremely valuable land indicate that commercial land-use regulations are relatively small and thus allow for building larger structures. On the other hand, the very small buildings that are home to Silicon Valley venture capital firms on the extremely valuable land on Sand Hill Road indicate very stringent land-use regulations, which deny larger buildings.

My coauthors and I use this concept to quantify the stringency of these regulations by collecting tax assessment data from most commercial building parcels in the United States. Our approach requires only two numbers: the assessor's total valuation of a parcel and the amount of that valuation accounted for by just the structure that sits on the land. On Sand Hill Road, much less of the total value of a commercial parcel is accounted for by the structure, while in midtown Manhattan, much more of the total value is accounted for by the structure.

Given this simple but powerful economic logic, our analysis develops an economic model comprising the more than two hundred metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) of the United States. The model calculates the regulation stringency at the individual parcel level, aggregates the individual parcels to the MSA level, and then aggregates each of the MSAs to the national level. The analysis finds that the least-regulated MSA is Midland, Texas, known as the "Tall City" for its towering buildings. Los Angeles and San Jose are among the most-regulated MSAs, having smaller commercial buildings that account for less of the total value of commercial parcels than the average of all MSAs. The model accounts for the positive role of land-use regulations that limit the congestion arising from completely unfettered land use in a city. Thus, the model recognizes the potential benefits of some regulations.

The analysis conducts several policy experiments that assess how real US GDP, as well as consumer welfare and developer profits, would be affected if land-use regulations were changed. One experiment analyzes what would happen if all MSAs adopted the relatively low level of land use regulation found in Midland, Texas. With this policy reform, we find that real US GDP would increase by about 3 percent in perpetuity, or about $1 trillion per year. The amount of commercial square footage would increase by around 15 percent under this scenario. Consumers would benefit from this change, as a better allocation of land use would increase their incomes, boost their consumption, and allow them to work less. The results of this experiment indicate that our present land-use regulations are far too stringent.

This model is admittedly imperfect. There are likely factors other than regulatory stringency that account for the relative value of structures compared to that of the land they sit on. For example, in some areas, tall buildings may have little value, even if permitted, because the highest-value use of the land consists of shops or restaurants that can only operate effectively if customers don't have to ascend to a high floor to reach them. The authors try to control for some of these factors. But I don't think they fully succeed in this admittedly difficult task.

On the other hand, as the authors recognize, their model only captures restrictions on building size and floor space. It does not fully consider restrictions on types of uses (e.g. - the types of commercial enterprises allowed on the property). In that important respect, they actually underestimate the impact of commercial zoning restrictions. For example, their model does not capture restrictions like the one at issue in the recent Indiana case addressing whether tacos and burritos qualify as "sandwiches" (the answer determines whether a Mexican restaurant qualifies as one of the types of restaurants allowed to operate in the area, under the local zoning code).

Despite the debate it triggered in the media and in legal circles, the Indiana sandwich restriction is relatively trivial in its impact. But it's the tip of a much larger iceberg of use-based (as opposed to height and floor spaced-based) commercial zoning restrictions, many of which are probably not captured by the NBER model.

Despite its limitations, the NBER study is likely right to conclude that legal restrictions on commercial land uses have large negative effects. Even if the effects are only a quarter or a third of what the authors estimate (about $250 billion or $333 billion per year in lost GDP, as opposed to $1 trillion), it's still an enormous negative impact. That's a high cost in lost production, job opportunities, and foregone innovation.

As the authors note, their figures take into account the possibility that many workers can work remotely. And the vast majority of jobs still require workers to be in person at least part of the time. Thus, the remote-work revolution has only modestly reduced the need for people to be able to "move to opportunity" and work in the places where they can be most productive. It's also worth noting that working class and lower-middle class people are more likely to need to work in person than upper-income professionals. Thus, commercial-use restrictions (like residential zoning restrictions) disproportionately harm the poor and disadvantage.d I discuss the remote work aspect of the issue in more detail in Chapter 3 of my book Free to Move: Foot Voting, Migration, and Political Freedom.

In our forthcoming Texas Law Review article, Josh Braver and I argue that exclusionary zoning rules restricting housing construction violate the Takings Clause of the Fifth Amendment (unless the government pays "just compensation" to the owners, which it rarely does). Restrictions on commercial development are a more complicated case. But under the originalist theories discussed in Part II of the Article, such constraints also violate the "right to use," which part of the  " private property" protected by the Takings Clause. The exception is regulations that protect against serious threats to public health or safety, and thereby fall within the "police power" exception to takings liability (see Section II.C of the article). But most commercial-use restrictions cannot be justified on such grounds, certainly not most that restrict height and floor space. Things are likely to be different under the living constitution approaches covered in Part III of the article, which focus more exclusively on housing.

Trans

What Is "Sex"?

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My new trade book On Sex and Gender, out today from Simon & Schuster, developed out of an academic project—first in the legal literature with Sex in Sport (2017) and Sex Neutrality (2021), then with scientists and policymakers in the medical research and sports spaces. This interdisciplinary collaboration allowed me a forest-through-the-trees view of three separate storylines from science, law, and progressive advocacy, all with the same basic theme: What is 'Sex'? In this post, I excerpt sections of the book that summarize these separate storylines and conclude with a reflection on how, taken together, they inform the current moment.

Note: In my first post I explained that I use the word sex in its biological sense. In this post I use gender not as a synonym for sex but rather consistent with one or more of the three ways it's otherwise defined: (1) The expectations others attach to us because of our sex, i.e., gender norms. (2) The ways we express ourselves that are coded as gendered, i.e., gender expression. (3) Our inner sense of our sex and/or gender, i.e., gender identity.

From Science

The following excerpt is from Chapter Five, Sex Just Is (Like Age):

Before the late 20th century, there wasn't a great deal of interest in—and so no real funding for—research into how males and females are different beyond the fundamentals of sex development. Work on human anatomy, physiology, function, and disease continued, of course, but on the male model.

This almost singular focus and the corresponding erasure of the female model was rationalized on the historically ironic grounds that we're alike enough that it's okay only to use males as research subjects—and to assume that the typical human is the average male. The fact that the menstrual cycle makes it more difficult to study the female body—and that it is certainly more expensive to study both and then contrast the two—helped to lock in this focus even as it was obviously inconsistent with the premise of sameness to take this position.

As a result, researchers did such famously inane things over the years as to study breast cancer—which primarily affects females and is tied to estrogen and progesterone production—using only male research subjects.

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