The Volokh Conspiracy
Mostly law professors | Sometimes contrarian | Often libertarian | Always independent
Why the Supreme Court Might Uphold Trump's Tariffs
The Administration's arguments have more doctrinal support than some might think
Last week, in V.O.S. Selections v. Trump, the en banc U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit held, 7-4, that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) did not authorize the Trump Administration to impose broad reciprocal and other tariffs. Next stop: One First Street.
Some seem to think it is virtually certain that the Supreme Court will invalidate some, if not all, of the Trump tariffs. Here at the VC, my co-blogger Ilya Somin has done yeoman's work unpacking the various arguments against the tariffs and responding to counter-arguments.
While I hope these arguments are successful, I believe V.O.S. Selections presents a close question under current law. I explain why in today's WSJ. Here's a taste:
This is the third court ruling against the Trump tariffs, and it's tempting to assume the Supreme Court will make it four. Don't count on it. At first glance, it's hard to conceive how the Constitution could allow the rewriting of tariff schedules on mere presidential say-so. That President Trump's tariffs are bad policy is icing on the cake. Yet under current doctrine V.O.S. Selections v. Trump presents a close case that is likely to divide the justices and could go either way. . . .
Since the Constitution was adopted, Congress has enacted laws delegating responsibility for executing these powers to the executive branch. Supreme Court precedent requires that in granting such authority, Congress must articulate an "intelligible principle" to its exercise. But the justices have never interpreted that as much of a limitation—broad statements of purpose will do. Thus while V.O.S. Selections is an immensely important separation-of-powers case, it is unlikely to be resolved on constitutional grounds. Instead, the case will turn—as it did in the lower courts—on whether Congress granted the president the power Mr. Trump claims. . . .
The whole point of enacting statutes like IEEPA is to give the president broad authority to address emergencies when they arise. While IEEPA provides that such actions may "only be exercised" to address such declared emergencies "and may not be exercised for any other purpose," courts have rarely felt competent to second-guess the executive branch's national-security determinations.
Presidential power is at its zenith in matters of national security and foreign affairs, so it is understandable why Congress may delegate broader authority in such contexts than in domestic affairs. Setting tariffs on goods from other nations implicates different concerns from domestic environmental regulation or the payback of student loans. . . .
You may read the whole thing here.
Editor's Note: We invite comments and request that they be civil and on-topic. We do not moderate or assume any responsibility for comments, which are owned by the readers who post them. Comments do not represent the views of Reason.com or Reason Foundation. We reserve the right to delete any comment for any reason at any time. Comments may only be edited within 5 minutes of posting. Report abuses.
Please
to post comments
What a boon this latest tariff lawfare has been for the country. It offends the Constitution, S.Ct. precedent, disrupts foreign relations, and wrecks the bond market. Aren’t activist lawyers great?
You are correct, Riva: the President unilaterally imposing tariffs on foreign countries, in the face of the explicit statement in the Constitution that Congress, not the President, has the power to regulate commerce with foreign nations, offends the Constitution, S.Ct. precedent, disrupts foreign relations, and wrecks the bond market. Thankfully most judges who've looked at the case agree.
Trump and his supporters are too stupid to realize it, but he's in the process of killing the goose that lays the golden eggs. I'm seeing article after article after article in sober, right of center publications like Foreign Affairs, The Economist, and the Wall Street Journal, written by people who do economics for a living, about how the end result will be less American power and influence in the rest of the world, and American consumers paying more for less. This is going to be a case of we didn't know how good we had it until it was gone.
My hope is that he's the one still in office when the bad effects start to happen.
Just as a hypothetical exercise, imagine there was a policy that could be put into effect.
That policy would increase overall GDP by 1%. Of that, all of the gains would go to the top 1% of the population. The other 99% would actually end up losing a small, but significant portion of their income.
Would you support passing such a policy? Why or why not?
A policy that is bad for 99% of the citizenry, not just in relative terms, but in absolute terms should be facing a lot of skepticism from the get go. But when that policy exclusively benefits those who are already the best off in society, it seems impossible to justify.
I don't think that's even a tiny bit relevant to Trump's tariffs, though, which will make the economy worse off as a whole and actually spread the pain fairly broadly across the population.
" it seems impossible to justify."
The justification is simple. It's better for society "as a whole" because GDP "as a whole" goes up.
Let's propose a different situation.
Imagine a policy, a trade agreement between two countries. In country A, it will increase GDP by 10%. In country B, it will increase GDP by 1%. But in country B, that 1% gain in GDP will exclusively go towards the top 1%. The bottom 99% will take an absolute loss in GDP.
Should country B support such a trade agreement? It provides an absolute gain in GDP for country B. And an overall gain in GDP for country A as well, that is substantial.
Yes, I would support the policy. but your scenario rests on a false premise, that all of the gains of 1% GDP growth would go to just 1% of the population.
So, you simply argue it's impossible for a policy to have GDP gains go entirely towards the top 1%.
FYI, the ONLY PEOPLE who do economics for a living own businesses that employ people and must make a profit.
I can't wait for the day you get served a healthy helping of crow to eat. Will you have the integrity to admit how wrong you were? Obviously not!
Even if every other argument fails, wouldn't this have to fall under the "major questions" doctrine that some of the justices love?
MQD only applies to Democratic administrations, so no it would not apply here.
Adler argues in the WSJ piece that the court is likely to say that the major questions doctrine doesn't hold in cases of national security or foreign policy contexts.
Tariffs as a policy, aren't solely national security or foreign policy. Their primary purpose is to raise revenue with the second order effect of protecting domestic industry.
I'm curious under what principal they'd declare that MQD applies to policies attempted under declaration of national emergency, but not policies related to national security or foreign policy.
Not that I don't expect they'll find a way to carve a Trump sized hole in the Constitution. But at least the legal contortions will be amusing.
There is not one kind of tariff. You make the mistake of portraying revenue tariffs and protective tariffs as equivalent which they are not.
Hamilton's tariffs in the 1790's were revenue tariffs. The Tariff of Abominations was a protective tariff.
The only difference is the subjective motive of the legislators who adopted it (or the president who illegally pretended to adopt it).
Wrong again.
The relevant doctrine here is that "Trump is the President of the United States. He can do anything he wants." While the justices won't say that out loud, they will follow it while mumbling something about penumbras and originalism.
After staying the lower courts ruling and dragging their feet until the last possible moment, expect a ruling sometime next summer, with the excuse that after nearly 18 months of the tariffs being in place, it would be too disruptive to strike them down now.
I'm curious, are you able to name a single recent scotus decision about Trump admin policies that isn't squarely in line with legal reasoning they've been broadcasting and ruling on before Trump was re-elected?
Anything we couldn't have predicted in Oct 2024? Behind the veil of ignorance?
He can't, of course. Nor can he explain why the first Trump Administration lost some cases, or why the second Trump Administration has lost some cases. Indeed, if they were just there to do Trump's bidding, they would have bent over backwards to rule for him in all the 2020-21 election cases so that he could have stayed president. But, of course, they didn't.
I can, actually. See my comment on CASA below.
Meanwhile, Forbes has a running score card of wins and losses. It's not as dire as I painted it above, but it's clear that Alito and Thomas consistently rule in favor of Trump, while his appointees are less consistent.
And the list above doesn't include the shadow docket, where the court fairly consistently rules for the current administration, but without saying why. As with his criminal cases, a delay is almost as good as a win.
I don't think Trump v. CASA was "squarely in line with legal reasoning" that they've used before. i.e. they let lower courts injunctions against previous administrations stand.
Here's the count of national injunctions by administration:
Obama : 19 or 20
Trump first term: 20
Biden: 14
CASA seems to have come out of nowhere. Sorta like the MQD.
"CASA seems to have come out of nowhere. Sorta like the MQD."
Neither of those things came out of nowhere. The reason they ruled as they did in CASA but hadn't in the past is because the government always brought the merits question along with the remedies question, and the Court would just rule on the merits. But in CASA the government specifically only brought the remedies question so that it wouldn't be muddied by the merits question.
And you know who came up with the major-questions doctrine? Stephen Breyer, who's not really known for his arch-conservatism, nor as a Trump sycophant during Trump Admin 1. And he first proposed it in 1986, and it first came up as a concept in a SCOTUS opinion in 2000. So, no, it's not new or designed to help Trump and Trump alone.
". . . the President and/or Congress has determined to be the national policy, and it just one district court stops it, and then you combine that with the ability of people to forum shop to go to a particular district court where they think that that will be the result and you look at something like that and you think that can't be right that one district court, whether it's in you know in the Trump years people used to go to the Northern District of California and in the Biden years they go to Texas, and it just can't be right that one district judge can stop a nationwide policy in its tracks and and leave it stopped for the years that it takes to go through normal process."
-Elena Kagan 2022
Hardly seems out of nowhere.
Prof Bray has been blogging about the issue intermittently here for most of the last decade too, his research was cited prominently, here is his take on CASA:
"In a powerful and persuasive majority opinion by Justice Amy Coney Barrett, the Supreme Court reasserted the importance of federal courts acting like courts—deciding cases for the parties, and giving remedies to the parties."
https://blog.dividedargument.com/p/initial-thoughts-on-trump-v-casa
It seems like this is going unnoticed - but Congress is in the process of amending IEEPA, with bipartisan consensus (at least in the House). It might affect Mexico/Canada/China tariffs (but not reciprocal tariffs.)
H.R. 747 is to be discussed this week in the House, under suspension. It has 7 Republican cosponsors.
Under the Act, if the emergency concerns international drug trafficking, the President must conduct cost-benefit analysis, establish criteria for termination of emergency, and include explanations in the regulation.
Buried at the bottom under a bunch of wimpy reporting requirements is this little provision saying that the President shall not have authority to impose “sanctions on the importation of goods.” That gobbledygoogyspeak for tarriffs. And it takes away this authority not only under the IEEPA, but the Trading With The Enemy Act as well.
That provision is 100% irrelevant. It only affects the proposed bill, not the existing authorities under IEEPA or TWEA.
You did guess the reason correctly, though - it has to do with tariffs. Because sanctions on importing goods are ordinarily expected to reduce taxable imports, they cannot be filed in the Senate under the Origination Clause (see CRS report #R46558), and may implicate PAYGO or other budget laws in the House.
"Congress is in the process of amending IEEPA"
Has the veto been abolished? No such amendment will become law
We’ll see. Business hasn’t exactly been enamored with what Mr. Trump is doing. Mr. Trump just might piss off enough big Congressional donors that he just might find himself facing veto-proof majorities. No guarantees. But the veto override does exist.
Keep hope alive!
Yes, the S&P 500 is at all-time highs because Mega-Corps are so unhappy with POTUS Trump's economic policy.
Since you guys think it's somehow meaningful to talk about every time the S&P is at an all time high, I will note that at the time you wrote this, the S&P was definitely not at an all time high.
The S&P 500 is almost always at an all-time high. It was an all-time high when we had super high-income tax rates, too. Correlation is causation, right?
What you leave out is that private hiring is anemic and GDP has been anything but stellar so far this year.
Trump has done a lot of good things. The courts would be doing him a favor if they took this giant tax increase on American businesses off the table.
I guess.
Vetoing a bill titled "Stop Chinese Fentanyl Act of 2025" is a very bold move... but then again, this guy vetoed an entire NDAA for an issue having no relations to national defense.
The guy just said in a press conference he is moving the space force headquarters from Colorado to Alabama because Colorado has mail in voting.
Tying cause to effect is not a strong suit in this administration. In the tariff context, he still repeats that foreign govts and corporations are paying the tariffs. So there the effect (tariff revenue to govt) is removed from the cause (who pays a tariff? The importer or the exporter?).
The Ds would be idiots to agree to anything that gives Trump more power or cements the power he stole.
The Ds would be idiots
"would be"?
It seems to me that the strongest argument against the tariffs is that Trump didn't document the determinations that are typically required to exercise delegated powers, such at tariffs.
But I can easily imagine the justices ruling that the proper challenge wasn't raised, therefore Trump wins.
Trump seems to think that Brazil prosecuting his right-wing populist buddy Bolsonaro for attempting a military coup to overturn a democratic election qualifies as an IEEPA “emergency”. And that that so-called “emergency” justifies 50% tariffs.
Seriously, WTactualF limits remain if that gets a pass?
https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/07/addressing-threats-to-the-us/
There’s no IEEPA “emergency” in there.
Now do Federal Marijuana legislation.
Now do a review of the Taylor Swift engagement photos.
“Why the Surpreme Court WILL uphold Trump’s Tarriffs”
He stumbles into the most accommodating environment for his weirdo capitalizations (an headline) and still takes the rake to the face misspelling Supreme!
Trump loves the poorly educated!
(an headline)
Uhhhmmmmm....
Trump loves the poorly educated!
As opposed to the geniuses who pissed away $2 billion on 2 of the worst candidates they could come up with and still can't figure out why they lost.
$2B isn't an investment in winning an election.
$2B is the cost of doing business with someone who is 50% likely to be the next president.
$2B isn't an investment in winning an election.
Clearly that was the Harris campaign's philosophy. If only they'd spent more on twerking rap artists and videos of Waltz demonstrating that he doesn't even know how to load the shotgun he took pheasant hunting. And clearly they just didn't spend enough (only $100K) on a fake cardboard set for her "Call Her Daddy" interview (which was a stroke of genius in itself.) I wonder how many voters were swayed by that $900K spent on putting Harris' mug on the Vegas "Sphere"? But maybe if they'd just stuck with that brilliantly effective strategy of pretending that Biden was perfectly fine (to the point that his staff had a hard time keeping up with him!), because what were the odds of that charade ever falling apart?! Just bad luck, I guess, that the public decided to believe their lying eyes.
Whataboutwhataboutwhatabout.
He thrusts his fist against the post and still insists he sees the Ghost!!!!!
I think it unlikely. Once full evidence is in, including Trump’s repeated negotiations with various countries and companies to lower tariffs in echange for favors of various kinds including both action on issues not related to the alleged emergency and cash payments, it has become clear that any claimed connection to any emergency is entirely pretextual. Trump is simply using tariffs as a general negotiating tool.
Whatever Congress might have authorized to address emergencies is completely irrelevant to the case at hand and the Court needn’t form any opinion on it. It is very clear that Congress did not authorize the President to do what he is in fact doing - set tarriffs at any level he wants as a free-wheeling tool to advance any aspect of his policy agenda he wants or to punish foreign governments and US import-dependent companies who don’t do what he wants.
Problem with this is that 1. Congress did not delegate tariff authority to the president and 2. there is no real emergency.
However SCOTUS will rule for Trump because "Calvinball has only one rule: There are no fixed rules. We seem to have two: that one, and this administration always wins."
And John Roberts has to do the “I am very embarrassed dance/song”
It comes down to "WHO DEFEINSE AN EMERGENCY,"
an elected politician who faces consequences for their actions, or an unelected, unaccountable judge who can act like a real tyrant with no consequences whatsoever.
Your argument is one for abolishing judicial review altogether.
It is not the system that this country has, but there are plenty of other countries like that.
It does not come down to who defeinse [sic? - I guess you meant defines] an emergency. It comes down to whether Trump is authorized to unilaterally impose taxes on Americans at all.
Also, Trump is a lame duck; he faces no more consequences than a judge does at this point. Neither will ever face voters, and can be legally removed only via impeachment.
Is there any area where a “foreign hook” couldn’t be found to satisfy IEEPA’s nexus requirement? Are there real guardrails on what constitutes an “emergency”? With today’s global economy — and the amount of deference courts give the executive — it feels almost completely open-ended.
Just look at the Iran “emergency,” still in force since 1979 — it’s almost as old as I am, and I’m about to have a grandchild. You’d think Congress would have spoken on it by now… but no, they actually haven’t that I could find. I honestly thought they must have, but the “emergency” has just been renewed year after year for nearly 50 years. At this point, it’s policy dressed up as an emergency.
The Utterance Theory of Government.
It's not whether there's an emergency, or it involves national security or foreign affairs.
It's whether the president uttered the word "emergency", "national security", or "foreign affairs". The only thing to be discussed, debated, or litigated is whether the word came out of his mouth or appears in a word search of the EO.
And if turns out he forgot, he can fix it.
Or if he's too lazy and contemptuous to fix it, the court can just shrug and note that he could have uttered one of the words and no use in looking weak by asking him to utter one word and having him tell you to stuff it.
I don't know if Trump's inventing this out of whole cloth, or just badly abusing the concept of emergency given by Congress.
Congress should, and will, tighen this up, but not until he leaves office.
Leaving aside the legal issues, I have a question. Sales taxes are not considered detrimental to the economy, but “taxes”(tariffs) on imported goods are horrible and potentially ruinous to the economy. Why? They raise revenue and assist domestic production.
Who told you sales taxes aren’t bad? All taxes are bad, but so is not having any.
I'm not sure who told you that sales taxes were not considered detrimental, but tariffs are a particularly distorting form of sales tax.
Sales taxes are detrimental.
To see why, consider that trade is good, so the loss of a trade opportunity is bad.
Normally, both sides of a transaction are better off as a result of trade. Contra Trump, there is not a winner and a loser. If you were going to be worse off as a result of making a trade, why make it?
More concretely, suppose you see some object you would be willing pay $100, but no more, for. The seller is willing to sell for $96, but no less. Bingo! We can make a deal at some price in between, say $98.
What happens if there is a 5% sales tax? There will be no deal. At any price between $96 and $100 the 5% tax drives the cost above $100, and if the seller absorbs the tax he realizes less than $96. So the parties don't get the benefit.
Without the tax, at a $98 price, the seller enjoys a $2 "surplus," because he got $2 more than his valuation, and the buyer gets the same surplus, for a symmetrical reason.
A four dollar potential surplus has been killed by the tax.
Of course the Supreme Court might uphold the tariffs. Like the lady said, Trumplaw is Calvinball on steroids.
Tariffs are not taxes. None of the Constitutional rules governing taxes apply to tariffs. End of discussion. 8-1 reversal coming.
What the actual fuck are you talking about?
"End of discussion." Come on!
The question you submitted applies directly to you.
It seems to me they are all in the same bucket:
"The Congress shall have Power To lay and collect Taxes, Duties, Imposts and Excises, to pay the Debts and provide for the common Defence and general Welfare of the United States; but all Duties, Imposts and Excises shall be uniform throughout the United States;"
I don't think there is any plausible argument that tariffs aren't duties, and treated the same as taxes.
Definition:
Duty:An indirect charge on goods that are imported or exported Tariff:A direct charge on goods imported from another country Tax:A fee added to goods to raise government revenue
https://incodocs.com/blog/duty-vs-tariff-vs-tax/
I figure there might be a credible reason, in a vacuum, to uphold the law. But it is fatuous to ignore current doctrine and its application in Calvinball ways. The reference to "Supreme Court precedent" is a bit amusing applied to this Court.
It's a hard case on the SCOTUS side. Let's take one of Trump's new tariffs, the Trump tariffs on India due to Russian oil imports.
Those imports are real, with India going from less than 2% of its needs with Russian oil to more than 1/3rd of India's needs being done with Russian oil. India is helping to keep Russia's war effort going...and making a profit doing so. Trump is using economic pressure to help Ukraine...
Should the SCOTUS say "No, that's illegal"?
Yes. Tariffs are congress's purview, not the executive branch. Just because it helps Ukraine is not enough, no matter how much you might like the result.
Anyway, allow me to remind everyone that the whole point of the tariffs is to allow Trump, and only Trump, to punish his enemies and help his friends. Going through congress to set tariffs does not give Trump to respond quickly to snubs and sycophancy, so pushing a bill through congress is a non-starter.
With India, Modi refused to give Trump credit for their recent cease fire with Pakistan, so he's putting Modi in the tariff doghouse. "Russian oil" is just this week's lame excuse.
"Tariffs are congress's purview, not the executive branch"
And Congress has delegated a good deal of authority to raise and lower tariffs in certain situtations to the executive branch, under approved law.
Democrats say "yes."
I didn't think Adler would use his trademark line ("pour new wine from old bottles") here. But there it is, in the wsj piece. He says it may not apply here because that adage is to constrain domestic power only. It must not matter that these taxes are paid within the interior at the port of entry by Americans to the American government. All of this must still be mostly foreign policy.
Yeah, this is key. These taxes affect everything in the American economy. It's far more of a domestic issue than it is a foreign policy issue.
And Trump himself has touted them as raising revenue and promoting manufacturing in the U.S. — both domestic goals.