Trump Declares the 'Neocon' Era Over

The president’s speech in Saudi Arabia promised a new course for U.S. policy in the Middle East. Can he deliver?

President Donald Trump has a vision of a "great transformation" in the Middle East. But it's not the transformation that American leaders have talked about bringing at gunpoint. At his Tuesday speech at a U.S.-Saudi investment summit in Riyadh, the president denounced the failures of "interventionists" and promised a future "where people of different nations, religions, and creeds are building cities together, not bombing each other out of existence."

Those words came with action. In his speech, Trump promised to lift all U.S. sanctions on Syria, and the day after, he shook hands with new Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa, who had a $10 million bounty on his head from the U.S. government just six months ago. In the weeks leading up to the summit, Trump ended the U.S. war in Yemen and negotiated the release of the last American in Hamas captivity. It remains to be seen whether he can follow through.

Riyadh was only the first stop in Trump's planned four-day tour of the Persian Gulf. He also plans to stop in Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. In his speech, Trump praised the oil-rich Arab monarchies of the Gulf—and used their success to attack the architects of past U.S. policy. 

 "The gleaming marvels of Riyadh and Abu Dhabi were not created by the so-called nation builders, neocons, or liberal nonprofits like those who spent trillions and trillions of dollars failing to develop Kabul, Baghdad, and so many other cities," Trump said. "Instead, the birth of a modern Middle East has been brought by the people of the region themselves, the people that are right here, the people that have lived here all their lives, developing your own sovereign countries, pursuing your own unique visions, and charting your own destinies in your own way."

He also offered Iran "a much better path toward a far better and more hopeful future," emphasizing that "some of the closest friends of the United States of America are nations we fought wars against in generations past." Although Trump threatened Iran with more economic sanctions if it didn't accept a deal, he didn't bring out his usual threats to bomb the country.

The Trump administration is currently negotiating with Iran over its nuclear program, and briefed the media that it was "encouraged" by the latest meeting in Oman last week. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi called the negotiations "more serious and more direct" than before. 

If Trump's brief war in Yemen was a dry run for war with Iran, his outreach to Syria demonstrated his eagerness to turn enemies into friends. There were two issues at play. One was that Congress and the White House had imposed intense economic sanctions on Syria designed to weaken the rule of Bashar al-Assad. Sharaa's new government inherited that embargo despite overthrowing Assad by force.

The second issue was that Sharaa, formerly known as Abu Mohammed al-Golani, was himself a former commander in Al Qaeda. (As Trump joked, Sharaa has a "very strong past.") There was intense debate in Washington about whether to continue pursuing economic pressure. In the end, Trump decided to offer Syria a clean slate. During his handshake, Trump asked Sharaa to join an alliance with Israel, deport Palestinian rebels, and assume responsibility for accused Islamic State supporters currently being held by Kurdish-led rebels, according to a White House statement.

"This is good for Israel, having a relationship like I have with these countries," Trump told reporters on the Wednesday flight from Saudi Arabia to Qatar.

But the Israeli government and its supporters are pretty nervous about being left behind by Trump's new policies. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R–S.C.) stated in a press release on Tuesday that he has "been in close contact with Israel, as they are extremely concerned about the state of play in Syria." And Trump's peace deal in Yemen does not forbid Houthi forces from attacking Israel, which they did in the middle of Trump's speech.

Perhaps most concerning for Israel, the Trump administration has begun direct talks with Hamas, via Arab Americans for Trump founder Bishara Bahbah. The U.S. did not inform Israel, which only discovered this backchannel through spies, according to Axios. Although Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed on Tuesday that there is "no way we will stop the war," even if more hostages are released, Trump said in his Tuesday speech that he would "work to get that war ended as quickly as possible."

On Monday, Hamas agreed to release Edan Alexander, an American teenager from New Jersey captured while fighting for the Israeli army. Alexander "wouldn't be there if it weren't for us, he wouldn't be living right now, probably none of the hostages would be living right now," Trump said during the Wednesday flight. Saudi Prince Faisal bin Farhan, who serves as foreign minister, told reporters on Wednesday that he was expecting "very courageous decisions" from Trump on "resolving the broader issues of Palestine."

The prince added that he "fully supports nuclear talks between America and Iran and hopes for positive results." Trump also joked in his speech that lifting the sanctions on Syria was one of the "things I do for" Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman.

Trump has always been close to the Gulf monarchies. Saudi Arabia has invested $2 billion into a business run by Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner. Just before the summit, Qatar gifted the White House a $400 million luxury airplane. In the past, these states were an influence for more U.S. intervention. They used much of their influence trying to incite Washington against their mutual enemies, such as Iran and Syria, and against each other.

But the Gulf states' outlook has changed. On one hand, they're satisfied with the victories they've won so far; the Syrian government was overthrown and Iran was cut down to size. On the other hand, the success of Yemeni and Iranian missile attacks has demonstrated that even direct U.S. protection can't shield the Gulf states from the cost of further war. And the Gulf leaders seem genuinely scared that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict could spill over to threaten their rule.

Of course, the Gulf states still fundamentally want U.S. protection, despite their shifts on some issues. Along with his peaceful gestures, Trump signed a new $142 billion weapons sale to Saudi Arabia. The next day, he publicly signed off on a previously agreed $2 billion drone sale to Qatar. While Trump mocked the "Western interventionists flying people in beautiful planes" to the Middle East, these arms deals historically bring hundreds of U.S. military advisers and defense contractors to the region—along with unspoken promises of more direct U.S. military assistance.

Before Trump soured on the Yemeni war, Saudi Arabia was reportedly egging on U.S. escalation. The influence that the kingdom is now using to encourage diplomacy could easily be used to encourage war again.

After all, former President Barack Obama made the same promises as Trump early in his presidency, telling an audience in Egypt that there would be "a new beginning between the United States and Muslims around the world, one based on mutual interest and mutual respect." Over the next eight years, he ended up permanently entrenching U.S. military involvement in the region.

"In a meaningful way, this is Trump delivering Obama's Cairo speech…only this time in Riyadh, and with notable tweaks, of course. But at its core, the message is much the same," wrote New Lines Magazine Editor in Chief Hassan Hassan. The only question is whether Trump can succeed where his predecessor failed.