Trump's Car Tariffs Could Drive Slovakia Into Russia's Arms
By imposing massive tariffs on foreign-made cars, Trump is punishing key allies, tanking Slovakia’s economy, and undermining U.S. influence in Eastern Europe.
On March 26, President Donald Trump announced that the United States would levy a 25 percent tariff on all vehicles assembled in foreign countries, beginning on April 2. He further announced that the tariff would be extended in May to include key components used in domestic production, such as engines, transmissions, and batteries.
While countries like Japan, South Korea, and Germany are obvious allies that are negatively affected by the tariffs, Slovakia—dubbed the "Detroit of Europe"—also stands to suffer substantial economic losses.
Slovakia has a population of just 5.4 million, yet it is one of Europe's leading car manufacturers, heavily reliant on auto production and exports to the U.S. Home to five major car manufacturers and more than 350 local suppliers, Slovakia is not only the second-largest E.U. exporter of vehicles to the U.S., but also the biggest car producer per capita in the world.
Slovakia manufactures and exports higher-end SUVs from brands like Audi, Volkswagen, Porsche, Range Rover, and—starting in 2026—Volvo. With SUVs accounting for 46 percent of total annual auto sales in the U.S., the tariffs are likely to hurt models that are especially popular among American consumers.
According to the National Bank of Slovakia, the Slovak economy "would decrease cumulatively by nearly 3 percent" due to the new tariffs, and "would also mean the loss of 20,000 jobs." The bank projects that Slovakia's economy will "suffer the most in 2026, when its growth would barely stay above zero" and that by 2027, the automotive tariffs alone could reduce gross domestic product by 0.3 to 0.5 percentage points. The bank's governor referred to the prospects of a 25 percent car tariff impact as a "small Armageddon."
Such an economic downturn could further upset Slovak politicians in a way that undermines U.S. geopolitical interests in Europe. Until the announcement of the auto tariffs, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico—a socialist and populist—had been eager to get on Trump's good side and avoid his economic wrath. In February 2025, Fico delivered a speech at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Washington, filled with pro-Trump rhetoric. His supporters hailed it as a bold foreign policy move toward the "populist-favored" Trump. Now, Fico must face his constituents back home and explain why the very president he praised as energetic, strong, and sensible is about to harm the Slovak economy so severely.
On a separate front, Slovakia's current government was already leaning toward a thorny embrace of Russia. With the added strain of a potential economic slowdown, that course may become a necessity. As one of the largest importers of Russian cheap energy, Slovakia was forced to shift to new sources after Russia invaded Ukraine—presenting a perfect opportunity for U.S. energy to enter a new market. The E.U. actively supported and subsidized efforts by Eastern European countries not only to diversify their energy supplies, but, over time, to sever dependence on Russian energy altogether.
Europe is eager to secure more natural gas but remains wary of becoming overly reliant on American supplies, given Trump's unpredictability. The current Slovak government—and much of its electorate—has long been skeptical, if not outright hostile, toward American influence. Even before Trump's second presidency, they were reluctant to buy American energy. Yet, the prospect of stable and affordable gas imports may have somewhat shifted these positions. Now, thanks to Trump's latest actions, anti-American voices in Slovakia have gained concrete arguments against U.S. energy.
Slovakia's nationalistic government, long critical of the E.U., now finds itself relying on its negotiation power to help resolve this damaging situation. Fico will likely demand substantial subsidies from the E.U. to offset the costs of the trade war—the very kind of government intervention that Trump and his supporters often decry as "unfair."
Trump's protectionism is alienating key defense and trade allies while financially hurting the American people. The "dealmaker-in-chief" is not only driving away the U.S.' reliable business partners and failing to promote American energy in new markets, he is also effectively handing them, both politically and economically, over to Russia or China on a silver platter.
Tariffs harm everyone—they are disastrous for trade and damaging for American alliances. Restoring both after Trump's second presidency will be immensely difficult.
