Trump's Deportation Plan Is About Numbers, Not Safety

Once everyone is a priority, no particular group, including criminals, is singled out for enforcement.

The Trump administration's plan to arrest and deport as many undocumented immigrants as possible quickly became a numbers game as White House officials set quotas and government press officers highlighted each day's deportation tally. As president, Donald Trump is continuing his campaign-trail rhetoric by insisting federal officers are rounding up murderers, even though a deportation policy that focuses on generating impressive numbers to achieve a "mission accomplished" moment cannot also prioritize removing dangerous criminals.

In short, politics and public relations dominate the Trump deportation plan. That makes sense since economists would advocate for more immigration, not removing potentially millions of people from the U.S. labor force.

What are the key things to know about the Trump deportation effort?

The Trump administration claimed it removed and returned 7,300 undocumented immigrants in its first week. That would represent a pace of 379,600 removals in a year. That would be higher than the annual removals for the past 10 years but lower than the FY 2012, FY 2013, and FY 2014 removal totals of, respectively, 415,579, 432,334, and 405,193, published by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS).

After Trump became "disappointed" in the number of arrests so far, The Washington Post reported, the administration set arrest quotas, telling Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officials that "each of the agency's field offices should make 75 arrests per day and managers would be held accountable for missing those targets." The Post added, "The orders significantly increase the chance that officers will engage in more indiscriminate enforcement tactics or face accusations of civil rights violations as they strain to meet quotas, according to current and former ICE officials."

The Trump administration at first denied the story about quotas until White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller went on CNN and warned ICE agents that arrest quotas are a "floor, not a ceiling." Miller said, "The goal is to arrest at least that many, but hopefully many more."

Setting numerical targets for arrests invites abuse and reduces individuals to widgets. A 2022 Virginia law sought to mitigate those risks by banning police and sheriff's departments from "establishing a formal or informal quota that requires a law-enforcement officer to make a specific number of arrests or issue a specific number of summonses within a designated period of time." Nick Sibilla of the Institute for Justice, a public-interest law firm, called it a "long-overdue reform."

Given the desire for numbers and other factors, cases of U.S. citizens being held or arrested by ICE are likely—and already happening. A U.S. military veteran from Puerto Rico was apprehended during a raid in New Jersey. (Puerto Ricans are U.S. citizens.) "At least 15 Indigenous people in Arizona and New Mexico have reported being stopped at their homes and workplaces, questioned or detained by federal law enforcement and asked to produce proof of citizenship during immigration raids since Wednesday, according to Navajo Nation officials," reported CNN.

During most presidential administrations, due to limited resources, ICE focuses on people with criminal convictions. In FY 2024, ICE reported, "Over 81,312 (71.7%) of the 113,431 arrests were of noncitizens with criminal convictions or pending charges." Data obtained by NBC News showed only 52 percent of the 1,179 ICE arrests on Sunday were considered "criminal arrests." That percentage will likely trend lower as White House officials continue to press ICE agents to increase the overall number of potential deportees.

Press and social media mentions have become ends in themselves for the Trump deportation plan. CNN reported that ICE agents have been told to be "camera-ready." In Chicago, celebrity talk show host Dr. Phil accompanied agents on an enforcement operation. Trump officials chose to use more expensive but higher-profile military aircraft for some deportation flights. In New York, DHS Secretary Kristi Noem appeared on social media dressed in a flak jacket and addressed a camera.

Criminals are not the primary focus of ICE enforcement actions. The White House has directed officers to generate numbers. Once everyone is a priority, no particular group, including criminals, is singled out for enforcement.

Other policy changes, such as removing legal status from Venezuelans and others with Temporary Protected Status or those who entered the U.S. lawfully with sponsors through humanitarian parole programs, will provide more potential deportees by creating more undocumented immigrants. That appears to be a key part of the Trump plan since officials hope these individuals will be easy to find and add to the deportation tally.

The lack of detention capacity could limit the Trump team's ability to lock up and deport undocumented immigrants. In January 2025, the average daily population of individuals in ICE detention facilities was 40,099. That means ICE likely does not have space to add tens of thousands more detainees. ICE hopes to expand its detention capacity via appropriations in a reconciliation bill, but that could take time. On January 29, Trump ordered the construction of a facility to detain up to 30,000 migrants at the Guantanamo Bay Naval Base, but questions abound on the legality, practicality, and appropriateness of the plan.

Countries cannot be forced to take back citizens the U.S. government wishes to deport. The U.S. government can threaten a "recalcitrant" country with visa sanctions or other actions, as Trump did recently with Colombia. Cuba and Venezuela are two countries with citizens in the U.S. that generally have refused to accept deportees.

Trump officials will likely seek to overcome problems with countries and deportees in a few ways. First, they may detain people long-term in miserable conditions to compel them to depart voluntarily. Administration officials can attempt that against Cubans and Venezuelans but also with people whose pending asylum claims may take years to adjudicate. The U.S.-recognized president-elect of Venezuela, Edmundo González, fears Trump will cut a deportation deal with Nicolás Maduro that would let the authoritarian ruler "use returning Venezuelans to his political advantage."

Second, the administration has floated arranging with a third country, such as El Salvador, to accept non-Salvadoran deportees. Once the individuals leave the U.S., Trump officials are unlikely to worry about the fate of families and individuals from Venezuela or elsewhere deposited in an unfamiliar country.

The Trump administration, by design, has not provided a specific number of deportations that will be hailed as a success if reached. Trump and his allies will likely boast about any number of people they manage to remove from the country in year one and devote more resources to deporting more people in years two, three, and four. Considering the vast majority of deportees will not be criminals but men, women, and children who lived and worked in the U.S. peacefully for years, Americans will decide if the number hailed by government officials is cause for celebration.