Police

Is Rising Violence a 'Ferguson Effect'?

Is increase in violent crime an actual trend or just a fluctuation?

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Credit: Joe in DC / photo on flickr

Chicago, never an island of tranquility, has been roiled by a surge in serious violence. Last year, the number of murders rose by nearly 13 percent over 2014, and shootings increased by a similar amount. Figures for January indicate a continuation of that unhealthy trend. 

What is happening here is also happening elsewhere. Last year, Cleveland suffered a 90 percent jump in homicides; in Nashville, the increase was 83 percent. In the 50 biggest U.S. cities, The Washington Post reports, homicides were up by 17 percent last year—"the worst annual change since 1990." 

Over the past quarter century, America has gotten much safer. In 1991, the murder rate was more than double what it was in 2014. Chicago, which had 943 murders in 1992, was down to 484 last year. But the recent shift raises the specter of violent crime making a comeback. 

How could that happen? In October, FBI director James Comey said there is "a chill wind blowing through American law enforcement," which could make "officers reluctant to get out of their cars and do the work that controls violent crime." 

The theory is called the Ferguson effect: As police face greater scrutiny, in the aftermath of the fatal shooting of Michael Brown in 2014, they are more hesitant in doing their jobs. "Officers are backing off proactive policing, and criminals are emboldened," wrote analyst Heather Mac Donald of the conservative Manhattan Institute in the Los Angeles Times

It's hardly implausible to think that given the intense spotlight that has shown on cops who have killed unarmed black men, some officers would shy away from some confrontations. It's not far-fetched to figure that in that case, bad guys would take advantage of the leeway. 

But a one-year increase is not a trend: The national murder rate rose in 2005 and 2006, only to head back down afterward. In Chicago, homicides spiked upward in 2008, before falling in each of the next three years. Last year's total was lower than the number in 2008. 

Northeastern University criminologist James Alan Fox has looked at the murder rate in individual cities over time and made a discovery. "I found 2-1 odds that if it goes up by 20 percent or more one year, it will go down the following year," he told me. Random fluctuations are inevitable. In a period of relatively low crime rates, there is probably also an irreducible minimum—which means that everything else being equal, they are more likely to rise than to fall. 

But it would be imprudent to ignore what happened in 2015. The numbers cited by those who see a Ferguson effect are not conclusive and could turn around this year. Still, as Mac Donald told me, "a 17 percent change in a year up or down is huge." A one-year increase is not a lasting upward trend—but any lasting upward trend begins with a one-year increase. 

"It is not possible to speak to police officers, in my experience, without hearing of their concerns about the current political climate regarding policing and the hostility they are encountering on the street," she attests. But diagnosing the causes of an increase in violent crime is not the same thing as devising a cure. The Ferguson effect, if it is real, is the result of factors that are not terribly amenable to control. 

One reason police may be more nervous is the ubiquity of video devices that document their actions—which are sometimes horrifying. In the old days, the Chicago cop who pumped 16 bullets into Laquan McDonald would have gotten away with it because his lies would have gone undetected. What makes some cops wary is the fear of being caught doing things they are not allowed to do. 

The video revelations have had another effect: deepening mistrust of the police among African-Americans. Many black teens in Chicago fear cops as well as criminals. The greater their fright, the less cooperation and the more resistance law enforcement will face in black neighborhoods. 

Neither of these factors can be banished by a change in policy or political rhetoric. The only hope is that police will learn to operate with appropriate aggressiveness, without committing abuses—and that when they do, they will earn the confidence of law-abiding citizens, making their jobs easier. 

That change is something to be desired if it turns out there is, in fact, a lasting Ferguson effect. Or if there isn't.

© Copyright 2016 by Creators Syndicate Inc. 

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    1. The ACLU forces them to shoot innocent people?

  1. The riots in Ferguson are what seem to alert white americans to the real terrorist ,violent extremist police. Unarmed african american and mentally ill americans are even today being executed by racist, brutal law enforcement officers. The killing continue but the police are more watchful because they know the citizens are recording there every move. There is now video proof of venal police behavior and the citizens will continue to show real police behavior, not the myths perpetrated by police unions and the media. Taxpayers nationwide are paying billions in settlements because of police misconduct on top of paying for corrupt police salaries and benefits. We all know that police union contracts are written to protect violent racist brutal officers and that must end.

    1. Yes, yes, racism is the problem, not police behavior in general. Thanks for the insight.

    2. So if cops doled out more violence to white people then it would be OK?

      1. “So if cops doled out more violence to white people then it would be OK?”

        This appears to be the case. White people are more tolerant and accepting than black people when it comes to being brutalized by police.

    3. How much are white Americans swayed by riots? Terror may beget more terror, but not justice.

  2. Obligatory:

    “Last year, the number of murders rose by nearly 13 percent over 2014, and shootings increased by a similar amount.”

    Chicago just needs some common sense gun control, that’s all.

    1. Assuming you are being sarcastic here [I have learned that is the norm for this site].

      In a recent [NPR] interview with now former Chicago Police Superintendent Gary McCarthy, he described criminals in Chicago [of the gang variety] as being more afraid of sanctions from their gang than anything they would face from police or the criminal justice system. When he took control of the police there, the first thing he noticed was that Chicago criminals did not “drop” their guns when pursued by police; they were more afraid of facing their fellow gang members and leaders for losing their gun than being charged with possession of an illegal weapon. This is validated by the fact that such persons having faced as many as 50 or more such arrests are generally back on the street within a matter of days, or less.

      The Chicago Tribune recently reported [October 8, 2015] that Rahm and McCarthy had tried to impose mandatory sentences on such person, only to be opposed by a coalition of black Illinois lawmakers who claimed this was a “recipe for locking up more blacks and Hispanics.”

      So we must then blame guns themselves, rather than the criminals who misuse them. Meanwhile gun violence has dramatically decreased over the past 20 years, in spite of what some call a “proliferation” of guns and persons with concealed carry permits. Seems they aren’t the ones committing the crimes, and yet the solution is to disarm everyone?

  3. If you isolate geographic areas, how do the numbers compare? Is is something suspiciously linked to certain types of environments? Say semi-socialist, disarmed enclaves?

    1. That are also have high numbers of gangs selling drugs and fighting for turf.Me thinks the war on drugs may have some influence on the numbers.

    2. Like cities run exclusively by Democrats for decades? Nah, that couldn’t be it.

      1. Racist much? I bet you only have white orphans.

        1. I actually have a quite diverse group of orphan monocle-polishers, thank you very much.

          1. I’ve heard that orphan meat is rather gamey…

    3. NYC has fewer murders than Chicago and Baltimore. There is obviously more going on than “Democrats!”

    4. That one’s easy: Houston is a useful benchmark for Chicago; HOU has something on the order of half the violent crime rate of CHI.

      As for the wider question of cops, they should be greatly reduced no matter enforcement policy and allowable tactics. I live in one of the ten most violent cities in the US, and the only reason someone isn’t crawling through my window most nights is the general understanding that such behavior will result in acute lead poisoning. When seconds count, the police are just minutes away, but, never mind: I’ve got this.

  4. This is a stupid idea. The thought that police getting out of their cars is what deters violent crime is not 100% crap, but it is close.

    What else has been going on across the nation that might make people turn to crime and be more violent? We are about 8 years into an economic morass that has lead to an explosion of joblessness. Although you haven’t seen it on your national news, homelessness has exploded over that time. (but don’t worry, if a team red pol takes the white house, we’ll see plenty of coverage). We actually have moms with their kids panhandling at the drive-through lane at fast food restaurants here in south Florida. Nearly 100 million out of the work force – something that has never happened before. And going on for nearly a decade now.

    But nah…. it couldn’t be that not being able to find work, or repeatedly losing the crappy job you do have, or just general employment insecurity could lead to the kinds of stresses that end in violent confrontations. Nope… gotta be because someone complained about police brutality. That’s why Tony capped his old lady in their apartment the other night! Because police are afraid to get out of their cars!

    1. You ignorant Teahadist. Unemployment is at 5%. The market is booming. Healthcare is more accessible. Bush’s war is over. We are safer than we’ve ever been (except from white male ranchers and militia-freaks). And without GOP obstruction based on racism, America would be even better off.

      -Progressive Buttplug

      1. Sloopy that was a very belieavable recreation of prog derp speak. Are you sure you’re not guilty of ThoughCrime?

        *narrows gaze

    2. See war on drugs. Thousands of mini Al Capone’s running around these cities.

    3. “We actually have moms with their kids panhandling at the drive-through lane at fast food restaurants here in south Florida. Nearly 100 million out of the work force ”

      Sounding very Trotskyistical today.

  5. Figures for January indicate a continuation of that unhealthy trend.

    But we owe the Debt to *ourselves* they’re shooting *each other*!

  6. I’m going to blame video games.
    yep, the video games are the real culprit.

    1. Just blame a video. Trust me, it works.
      -Valerie Jarrett

      1. What difference at this point does it make?

        1. Good God. I will never click on a Salon link again.

        2. College students being stupid and offensive?? That’s never happened before!!

          1. You are being way too kind to the author. She overheard a sentence and a half of one side of a cell phone conversation of one person being derogatory about a couple of women, probably of his acquaintance. From that she not only extrapolates that he is a inveterate misogynist and all-around hateful person, but so are all young men, particularly young men on campus. And they hate women! Really, really hate them. And they think they are above women. And they believe women in general are worthless creatures. And she is right and just and true to be in mortal fear of them.

            This she was able to garner from a partial hearing of a partial conversation, with no context of any sort. Simply saying insulting words about a woman is enough to determine all of this.

            Maybe he was being stupid and/or offensive as you suggest. Or maybe he was spot-on accurate in his assessment. Or maybe those words were polite euphemisms for just how deplorable a couple of women in his life were behaving. Who knows? Certainly not the author of that ridiculous, masturbatory piece of pseudo-feminist drivel.

            But that’s not the scary portion of the story. Scary happens when you read the comments. Way, way too high of a percentage of those who felt moved to comment are offering words of support.

        3. What a bunch of cunts.

  7. Perhaps if Chicago cops were trustworthy enough to not deliberately disable their dash am equipment 80% of the time, the people in that city would respect their presence a bit more.

  8. “The video revelations have had another effect: deepening mistrust of the police among African-Americans.

    Why is it always race with you idiots?

    1. To deliberately muddy the waters to foment continuing separation and distrust between races so they can maintain their power and position by playing “us against them”. It’s really quite vile.

    2. You know there have been videos for 25 yrs. I remember watching COPS and saying to myself..these guys really think they are heros but in fact they usually escalated the situation more than diffuse. I guess I never trusted the police.

      My perception from watching the show and my experience is that there was not much difference between how they treated blacks or hillbillies. Open contempt for poor is open contempt for the poor. I would say differences in policing is more socioeconomic.

      I wondered why something that made cops look so bad was popular with cops. Maybe it served its purpose as a mechanism of control for those policed. Looks like the script may have flipped.

    3. Yep, all those black folk just make up “perceived” racism.

  9. “What makes some cops wary is the fear of being caught doing things they are not allowed to do.”

    Of course, but I think a reasonable cop, a non-abusive cop, might have some fear of doing something he’s theoretically *allowed,* or even *required,* to do.

    Darren Wilson tries to stop a robber, who attacks and Wilson shoots the robber. Result? He’s out of a job, and arsonists and looters attack black-owned and immigrant-owned businesses. The media points to Wilson as an evil Ku Klux Kop who shot down a “gentle giant” who was on his way to the orphanage with a delivery of lifesaving medicine.

    And when Wilson is exonerated by the Obama/Holder Justice Department, then it’s all crickets, or else people keep mentioning “Ferguson” as if Wilson’s guilt was a given.

    Yeah, so in the wake of that, I suspect many new Michael Browns will be able to walk away from robbery scenes.

    When these cases come up, the country had a choice:

    (a) confront the existence of abusive cops and the culture and policies protecting them – eg, cop union contracts

    OR

    (b) paint a narrative of Ku Klux Kops having it in for black people. It’s not that abusive cops generally manage to avoid prison and even manage to keep their jobs, thereby becoming emboldened to go after anyone, of any race, who crosses them. No, it’s that the cops are on Whitey’s payroll, and they’ll ignore Whitey McWhiteperson walking around robbing stores, because they’re too busy looking for black youths to persecute and kill.

    1. Narrative (b) is like a one-two punch, because by failing to deal with the real issues of police abuse it fails to tackle the issue at the roots, and then it also emboldens crooks who are always looking for vulnerabilities in the community and its lawmen.

      This applies to crooks of all races, of course – and more specifically, if a crook learns that he can simply use his race as a club against the cops.

      1. This is what makes me believe in the vast conspiracy theory. Every single one of the cases that have made the national conversation have been race-based and at least highly controversial.

        How many cases have we had in our nutpunch file that nobody has ever heard of? At least an order of magnitude more than the national conversation, right? Probably 2 orders of magnitude. Loads and loads of cases that don’t include a “the cop probably acted correctly” as a part of the narrative. Or even “the cop probably made a somewhat understandable but tragic mistake”.

        I’m even further in the minority because I’m in the Balko camp on this issue – that being that it is the mission, training and accountability of law enforcement that is the problem, not “racist cops” or even “there is no such thing as a good cop”. If you put a good cop in a bad situation he still might make a mistake and shoot the kid with the BB gun. Maybe only 1 in 100 times, but we have a million cops on the street.

        But as long as we focus on “racism” we will never address the core issues of the war on drugs, unaccountability in the criminal justice system, training and tactics. After a while it becomes harder to believe that the continued focus on race is anything other than deliberate.

        1. “it becomes harder to believe that the continued focus on race is anything other than deliberate”

          You originally thought it was accidental?

          1. When vast conspiracies begin to sound like reasonable explanations, you really need to be worried. When they are your first instinct, you probably don’t need to worry. Just check yourself in.

            1. You think that Chapman and the editors of Reason are part of a vast conspiracy? And you arrived at this conclusion after much consideration? What was it that tipped the balance?

    2. From where Brown turned back towards Wilson to where he fell is 21 feet. There is audio of 3.5 seconds of gunfire. That means Brown was moving at 4 mph. That’s a walk. No way was he charging “full speed” as Wilson alleged. In addition Wilson was outside with plenty of room to maneuver, had back up on the way and had not seen a weapon because Brown had none. Shooting under those circumstances was completely unjustified.

      1. But witnesses at the scene (independently interviewed) confirmed that Brown did charge at the officer. No one saw him raise his hands to surrender.

        It’s beyond dispute that Brown fought to take away his gun. A shot was fired inside the car. At that point it was reasonable for Wilson to assume that Brown had intent to kill. He had room to maneuver outside, but I imagine in open space other complications arise.

        If memory serves, Wilson fired off some warning shots at Brown.

        1. First, eye witness testimony is notoriously bad. Second, you can’t agrue with the math. Unless you can prove 21 feet divided by 3.5 seconds doesn’t equal 6 feet per second or 4 miles per hour you have no leg to stand on.

      2. It’s funny that even now, long after the DoJ’s investigation report (conducted under Eric Holder’s management, no less) effectively exonerated Officer Wilson and drove a stake through the heart of the hands-up-don’t-shoot narrative…so many here are still regurgitating that bullshit.

        1. The DOJ found no FEDERAL crimes. It made no ruling concerning justification for the shooting. If you think math is bullshit then there’s no hope for you.

          1. And I never said anything about Brown’s hands.

          2. The DOJ found no FEDERAL crimes. It made no ruling concerning justification for the shooting. If you think math is bullshit then there’s no hope for you.

            The irony and hypocrisy in of your lack of hope for me is…well…ironic and hypocritical. The DoJ report (http://tinyurl.com/pas5qvp … which I’d bet dollars against donuts you’ve never read) quite explicitly found that ALL of the physical evidence, and ALL of the credible eye-witness testimony was consistent with Darren Wilson’s version of events, and that NONE of the evidence/testimony supported the narrative you’re pushing.

            1. They were obviously wrong because the 21 foot distance and the 3.5 second audio of the gunfire IS physical evidence which came directly from the investigation. Are you challenging those facts? Can you do math? Apparently no one at the DOJ can.

              1. You still didn’t read the report, did you? They even provide a nice summary of the evidence and everything so that you don’t have to tax your span of attention too much. Ah, well….your stupidity was old as of the first post, so this is the last bit of effort I’m going to waste on you. Yes, let’s do some math:

                That means Brown was moving at 4 mph. That’s a walk.

                More precisely, 4.2 MPH. And even if your rough estimate (and that’s all it is) is correct, the average walking speed for a human adult is ~3.1 MPH. The average jogging speed for a human adult is somewhere in the range of ~4-6 MPH (depending on where you get your definition from). This puts the 4 MPH figure at 35% faster than average walking speed, and just above the lower end of the range for jogging speeds.

                So, yes…I am challenging your ill-informed interpretation of the facts.

                1. If YOU had read the report YOU would have seen that at least a half dozen times the alleged witnesses claim that Brown “charged” Wilson. Witness 104 even said he “charged” in a “tackle run”. Now the average walking speed may be 3 mph but that’s for average people. An average man is 5’9″. Brown was 6’4″ so calling 4 mph a walk for him is not out of the realm of possibility. Jogging is above 4 mph. Let’s even call his pace jogging. That is still not close to a “full charge” as Wilson testified or a “tackle run” as 104 claimed.

                  1. OK, I guess I’m really not smart enough to know when to quit after all.

                    If YOU had read the report YOU would have seen that at least a half dozen times the alleged witnesses claim that Brown “charged” Wilson.

                    Which is, of course, utterly irrelevant with regard to any claims made here by myself or anyone else…including the poster to whom you originally responded. Now, let’s check some more of your faulty math that, for some reason, you seem to be so proud of:

                    Now the average walking speed may be 3 mph but that’s for average people. An average man is 5’9″.

                    69.3″, to be precise (per the CDC).

                    Brown was 6’4″…

                    Or, 76″…which puts him at just under 9.7% taller than average. If we assume that all we need to do is scale up the average walking speed proportionally with height (a bad assumption I’ll get to in a moment) that gives us a an average walking speed for people of Brown’s height of just a hair under 3.4 MPH. Your estimated speed for Brown clocks him at ~23.5% faster than that.

                    But here are a couple of problems with your estimates and assumptions:

                    1) Scaling for height increase alone ignores weight. Brown wasn’t just tall…he was quite overweight. That’s going to act to reduce his typical speeds at the various gates (walking, jogging, etc).

                    {continued in next post}

                    1. {continued from previous post}

                      2) You’re assuming uniform speed over the course of that 3.5 seconds, which of course ignores fundamental Newtonian laws of physics. He couldn’t instantaneously go from 0 to 4.2 MPH, nor maintain that exact speed for the entire 21 feet. Some amount of acceleration and deceleration were involved in the process, which means that for him to have had an average speed of 4.2 MPH over that time period would require him to have been moving at a significantly faster pace than that at some point over the distance traveled…well into the “jogging” range, and possibly what one might characterize as “charging” (especially given his size and bulk).

                      But, hey…just keep waving your 2nd grade math textbook around like it’s some sort of magic talisman.

                    2. Your percentages are useless. If 1 person is murdered in my city this year and 2 next year I can claim the murder rate has increased 100% but that doesn’t mean their is murder spree. The average step length for a man is 2.5 feet. That’s 8.4 steps over 21 feet. 8 steps! The first round of shots lasted 2 seconds There was a 3 second pause then 1.5 more seconds of shooting. If Brown was charging “full speed” during that first round that means he was barely moving during the second. If he was moving full speed during the second round he was barelyoving during the first. It also means Brown went from 0 to full speed to 0 in four or five steps. Then did that again during the second round. Totally absurd. You see when Wilson gave his first statement he didn’t know about the audio recording. You’ll notice that in the legal analysis of the report they don’t even mention the audio much less discuss it’s implications.

                    3. Your percentages are useless.

                      And your kung fu is no good. Seriously…my percentages? They’re not mine. They’re simply the irrefutable results of basic math on figures YOU are citing. You remember math, right? That stuff you keep claiming no one understands but you?

                      That’s 8.4 steps over 21 feet. 8 steps!

                      Wow!!! And….? First off, let’s examine this “21 feet” figure. From the DoJ report (emphasis added by me):

                      “Brown’s blood in the roadway demonstrates that Brown came forward at least 21.6 feet from the time he turned around toward Wilson.”

                      So the fact is that, per the DoJ’s analysis, the evidence establishes a figure of slightly MORE than 21 feet is the MINIMUM distance covered by Brown as he turned back toward Wilson. That was established as the minimum because it was the distance measured between where Brown fell and the blood stain in the road furthest away from Wilson. Since Brown wasn’t gushing blood in a steady stream onto the street he could well have turned around at a point way beyond where the that bit of blood fell to the pavement prior to his reversing direction. In fact….

                      {continued in next post}

                    4. {continued in next post}

                      “As described below, crime scene detectives noted apparent blood in the roadway approximately 17 feet and 22 feet east of where Brown’s body was found and east of the casings that were recovered, consistent with Brown moving toward Wilson before his death. There was no other blood found in the roadway, other than the pool of blood surrounding Brown’s body.”

                      Brown simply wasn’t bleeding enough prior to the shots that took him down for the couple of blood stains on the street to serve as anything other than a minimum travel distance.

                      You’ll notice that in the legal analysis of the report they don’t even mention the audio much less discuss it’s implications.

                      They covered the audio several times in the evidence analysis…which is where most intelligent people would expect them to cover it, ‘cuz it was, y’know……evidence.

                    5. If I go from 1 mph to 2 mph I increase my speed by 100% but I’m still moving slowly.

                      So as it comes to bloodstsains and distances you want to ignore the report. The report you claim exonerates Wilson.

                      Yes, they tell us what the audio evidence is, once, but again there is no analysis at all. They just say it supports Wilson’s tale of shooting, pausing and shooting.

                    6. So as it comes to bloodstsains and distances you want to ignore the report.

                      LOL! I’m the one actually QUOTING the report on that matter (and others as well), verbatim.

                      When you’re reduced to resorting to the kind of bullshit you’re trying to get away with now you’ve already lost the argument, and are well into not-to-be-taken-seriously territory.

  10. Northeastern University criminologist James Alan Fox has looked at the murder rate in individual cities over time and made a discovery.

    It would be nice if this and other references to research were accompanied by actual cites or links to the research.

    1. I note that sloopy can do it, why can’t a “professional” journalist?

  11. A 90% jump is a pretty extreme “random fluctuation.” I’m not convinced.

    1. It depends. If some phenomenon is super rare, then a 90% jump is meaningless. For example, if Utopia City has a population of 1 million and last year there was one murder and this year there were two, that’s a 100% jump. Crime wave!

      That’s the problem with not linking to data, the percentages lose meaning in the hands of the innumerate “journalist.”

      1. Exactly. When I see news reports using percentages, then I assume they aren’t using numbers for the very reason you describe.

        “Podunk sees a 200%* increase in murder!”

        *1 murder in 2014, 3 in 2015

        Percentages are alarming, while the numbers are not.

        1. Raise your hand if you actually think that murder in Cleveland was a statistical rarity prior to the stated 90% increase….then choke yourself.

      2. Yeah, there was a story awhile back about a big percentage increase in murders in some European burg that also had a big increase in migrants.

        Turns out it was a few murders probably committed by Russian gangs.

        Confirmation bias is a bitch.

      3. “there was one murder”

        There were hundreds of murders.

    2. “Last year, Cleveland suffered a 90 percent jump in homicides; ”

      It was all those emigrants!

  12. God forbid the police be seen acting illegally and over stepping their authority. We could be even safer if we allowed weekly or even daily home inspections by police.

    The majority of this can be solved with ending the war on drugs, plain and simple.

  13. This is all you need to know: Blacks suffer relentless racism, all the time, and that explains everything.

    In places where the population is almost 100% black, and where blacks do not experience any significant racism, things are…….errrrrrrr……..forget that example. See above.

    1. The War on Drugs is definitely racist.

      1. I thought cocaine was white.

  14. This study indicates white police officers have been more hesitant to shoot black suspects since before Ferguson:

    http://www.stltoday.com/news/l…..7f667.html

    They need to stop calling it the Ferguson effect…

  15. In a recent [NPR] interview with now former Chicago Police Superintendent Gary McCarthy, he described criminals in Chicago [of the gang variety] as being more afraid of sanctions from their gang than anything they would face from police or the criminal justice system. When he took control of the police there, the first thing he noticed was that Chicago criminals did not “drop” their guns when pursued by police; they were more afraid of facing their fellow gang members and leaders for losing their gun than being charged with possession of an illegal weapon. This is validated by the fact that such persons having faced as many as 50 or more such arrests are generally back on the street within a matter of days, or less.

    The Chicago Tribune recently reported [October 8, 2015] that Rahm and McCarthy had tried to impose mandatory sentences on such person, only to be opposed by a coalition of black Illinois lawmakers who claimed this was a “recipe for locking up more blacks and Hispanics.”

    So we must then blame guns themselves, rather than the criminals who misuse them. Meanwhile gun violence has dramatically decreased over the past 20 years, in spite of what some call a “proliferation” of guns and persons with concealed carry permits. Seems they aren’t the ones committing the crimes, and yet the solution is to disarm everyone?

    Yeah, that makes sense.

    1. In a recent [NPR] interview with now former Chicago Police Superintendent Gary McCarthy…

      If you want to know what’s wrong with urban policing in the U.S. you need look no further than the fact that a drooling moron like Gary McCarthy was actually tapped to head one of the largest police forces in the country, when he shouldn’t even be trusted to manage a lemonade stand.

  16. “Last year, Cleveland suffered a 90 percent jump in homicides; ”

    Perp: “He said he never wanted to see another Browns debacle”

  17. I don’t recall any spikes in violent crime during the end of the Bush presidency and the middle of the Obama’s, when the economy was in the toilet. Most of the high profile mass shootings occurred during the “recovery” phase. And the “Ferguson effect” is mostly affected big cities with a large black population.

    The Ferguson effect is almost certainly a contributing factor in the rise of crime. The cops are admitting to not enforcing laws. They demonstrated that when they backed off from rioters from looting streets and not storming whatever land the Bundies occupied. You might say they were right not to provoke something worse by being aggressive, but in the larger picture, that would logically not result in LESS preventable deaths.

    Most of you are white or not near decaying urban zones, so the Ferguson effect doesn’t concern you. In the black community, it’s a concern. That’s because blacks often kill other blacks and the community pressures victims not to snitch – this was even before Ferguson.

    Cops shot maybe 40 unarmed black men last year. More than 70% of people who were shot by cops had weapons or were threatening others. Of course the police have issues with authority and violence, that’s government for you. But more often than not, they save lives.

  18. RE: Nashville TN – Went from 41 murders in 2014 to 75 in 2015 a 54% increase. Not an 83% increase. Mr. Chapman, please cite your source for the 83% number.

    http://www.wsmv.com/story/3086…..ubles-2014

    The Washington Post article from 1/27/2016 is incorrect also.

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  21. The only original point he made was that a 17% increase is hard to ignore. The rest is all the articles from 2015 rehashed.

  22. rising black violence isn’t due to the “Ferguson effect”,the backing-off of police enforcement,it’s due to Comrade Obama’s institutional racial divisiveness and the proddings of black Professional Racists like Al Sharpton and Jesse Jackson. the black racists are stirring the pot,inciting black folks to commit more crime and violence.
    the backing-off of police enforcement is in response to that. Police recognize when they’re in a no-win situation,with no support from the top management. They’re circling the wagons,looking out for themselves,naturally.
    Note Comrade Obama failed to prosecute the New Black Panther voter intimidation case,despite their having pled guilty,a slam-dunk case. That’s only ONE of many similar racial preference cases by Comrade Obama’s “Justice” Department.
    the Rule of Law in America has slipped away.
    “it’s time to feed the hogs.”

  23. Many people do not know that the Ferguson riots didn’t happen until AFTER Comrade Obama’s “Justice Dept.” sent teams to Ferguson (and Sanford,FL) to teach “white privilege” and critical race theory seminars to the black folks.
    DELIBERATELY stirring the pot,trying to incite the blacks.
    At least Sanford’s pastors were smart enough to counsel peaceful marches,and to not riot or break the law,and Sanford/Seminole County police kept a close eye on everything.

  24. I’m going to video games.
    yep, the video games are the real culprit.

    ?????
    250

  25. Most of you are white or not near decaying urban zones, so the Ferguson effect doesn’t concern you. In the black community, it’s a concern. That’s because blacks often kill other blacks and the community pressures victims not to snitch – this was even before Ferguson.
    ?????
    mizo Kids Games.

  26. Thank you so much for giving everyone such a nice chance to read critical reviews from this blog.

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