Election 2014

Scott Walker is Not Big Labor's Nemesis

But he has paved the way for one when the economy tanks again

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Scott Walker
Gage Skidmore / Foter / CC BY-SA

Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R) pulled off a stunner of a solid victory last week. And after his very public fights with Wisconsin's public sector unions, the governor's re-election is being billed as a major blow to Big Labor.

In the long run, that is no doubt true. But unions might not have that much to worry about in the foreseeable future. That's because there just aren't many governors, including Walker himself, who are going to have the appetite or the need to push anti-union measures until the economy tanks again.

It's easy to see why Walker's win is seen as terrible for Big Labor. Unions had put a bull's eye on Walker ever since he signed the union-deflating Public Act 10 into law in 2011. Walker's law went well beyond eliminating compulsory payment of union dues as a condition of employment in union shops, as right-to-work laws (including one signed by Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder) do. Although, unlike right-to-work, it applies only to public sector unions, it: bars employers from withholding dues from employee paychecks and tells union bosses to make their own collection arrangements; requires unions to be recertified every year; mandates government employees to contribute more toward their pension and health care benefits; and restricts collective bargaining to base wages — making benefits, workplace arrangements, and staffing levels off limits. These restrictions were crucial in freeing local budgets from the chokehold of unions, saving state taxpayers $2 billion in just its first year.

And that's just on the fiscal end. On the political side, PA 10 broke the nexus between the Democratic Party and Big Labor. By preventing labor from garnishing dues and funneling them back to elect Democrats (who, in turn, would reward their union benefactors with sweet contracts), Walker ended a key political advantage that Democrats have been milking for a long time in the Dairy State (as others). In the first year after the law went into effect, membership in Wisconsin's public unions fell from 50 percent to 37 percent.

This is why Big Labor pulled out all the stops against Walker, including forcing him in 2012 to suffer the indignity of being the first Wisconsin governor to face a recall election. (He won with an even bigger margin than his original election.) They accused him of siring an illegitimate child. And, more recently, the Democratic assistant attorney general of the state opened a "John Doe investigation" that allowed him to raid and ransack the homes and offices of Walker's staff to look for evidence of collusion with conservative advocacy groups without establishing probable cause first. (He came up empty.)

If such harassment had succeeded, it would have sent the message to other Republican governors that they shouldn't try similar labor reforms at home. That's why Republican National Congress Chairman Reince Preibus declared on election eve that if Republicans won the Senate but lost Walker — or Snyder — it would "not be a good night" for Republicans.

Still, for now, these are largely moral victories for Republicans. National Right to Work spokesman Patrick Semmens told me that Republicans have no plans to spring any major labor reforms on other states. "There is no vast right wing conspiracy," he chuckled. And it is highly unlikely that any governor will unilaterally push right-to-work laws, let alone drastic Walker-style reforms on his or her own.

That Walker is still standing despite a relentless union onslaught certainly shows that the union bark is worse than its bite, as Mackinac Center for Public Policy's Labor Director Vincent Vernuccio points out. Still, victory hasn't been without costs for Walker. He was forced to spend his first term fending off union attacks, something that left him little time to actually govern. Worse, the uncertainty, as Walker himself admits, depressed growth and jobs in Wisconsin as businesses held back investments. This is why, despite his unusually strong stomach for confrontation, he has foresworn making Wisconsin a right-to-work state, even though that will leave its manufacturing sector at a huge competitive disadvantage compared to the 24 other right-to-work states in the country, especially neighboring Michigan and Indiana.

Likewise, Ohio's John Kasich, a Republican who just cruised to a second term, has pledged not to push restrictions on the collective bargaining rights of public unions or right-to-work laws after voters overturned his Wisconsin-lite legislation in 2012. As for the other non-right-to-work states with Republican governors — Illinois, Massachusetts, Maine, and New Mexico — they are simply not red enough to count on strong public support to make a switch stick.

And if right-to-work is going to be hard to pull off, targeting public unions with Walker-style reforms will be almost impossible for the simple reason that their time may have passed for now.

Indeed, when Walker assumed office, Wisconsin, like many other states, was staring at a massive $3.6 billion biannual budget deficit, thanks to the recession. Hence, he could justify bold conservative measures to put the state on a strong fiscal footing.

However, with the recession over, revenues are once again flowing in and state balance sheets are improving. Only 14 states now face a deficit. And it's a rather small combined total of $8.6 billion, according to a National Association of Budget Offices survey. "This is a drop in the bucket compared to what states faced four years ago," notes Reason Foundation Director of Government Reform Leonard Gilroy. Radically stripping unions of their collective bargaining powers in the absence of a fiscal emergency risks coming across as a nakedly political move that might not sit well with state voters. That is why Walker's Republican colleagues in other states will have to be very careful about the lessons to draw from his experience.

The country had to wait over 60 years for more dominoes to fall after an initial wave of states went right-to-work in the 1940s and 1950s. The next round might not have to wait quite so long — just till the next economic downturn.

Big Labor can take a deep breath until then and pray that the economy never tanks. But Walker's victory shows that when it does, they will be fair game.

This column was originally published in The Week.

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  1. Don’t want to give up that union boogeyman just yet? They’re done, toast, history, just like communism. (Although we do have to keep on our toes in case those commies come back.)

    1. They never go away, fist. They just rebrand and reload.

      1. Even communism itself was a rebrand. Forced collectivism has been destroying societies since history began.

    2. Survival Rule #2: Double Tap

  2. 7% of the private workforce. That’s less than the 8% shriek can muster!

    Like that mohawk dude said after Max’s car blew up in The Road Warrior, “…it’s over…”

    1. Can I get Lord Humungus over here to give his “Children of the Wasteland – Just Walk Away” speech to the Unions?

      Thanks, Lord H!

  3. Trying to pull off what he did when the economy won’t be easy.

    So he is going to use some kind of economic ruffie?

  4. These restrictions were crucial in freeing local budgets from the chokehold of unions, saving state taxpayers $2 billion in just its first year.

    $2 BILLION ?! That number is just stunning. How is it possible that the union parasite was sucking that much out of the taxpaying host ? I am assuming that Wisconsin still has Roadz and schools and police and libraries etc etc….so that $2 billion was just straight up skimming off the top for unions and democrats. Stunning.

    1. IIRC one of the results was that union members were no longer forced to buy overpriced health insurance through their unions. That could account for a chunk.

  5. However, with the recession over, revenues are once again flowing in and state balance sheets are improving. Only 14 states now face a deficit.

    The recession is over?

    1. It ended in June 2009, as I try to remind everyone, especially my Keynsian friends. Therefore, all of these various government stimulus programs and artificially low interest rates are holding back the economy and crowding out investment. We should have been saving and investing the last 5 years.

      1. Just as a reminder, be definition a recession is over, not when things improve back to where they were, but rather when they stop getting worse.

        The folks that got off the unemployment rolls because they were there so long they gave up, are not back to work, they are just no longer showing up in the stats. But at least we are not adding more of them at the rate we were.

        Now, don’t you feel better knowing that the ship is no longer sinking because it is on the bottom?

        1. But don’t worry, the government is revving the engines and things are going to get better any minute!

    2. Yep! All together now, “Happy days are here again! Stand up and cheer again!”

  6. Only 14 states now face a deficit. And it’s a rather small combined total of $8.6 billion

    Uh, huh. How’s that *national* deficit?

    1. IL is billions behind on its current bills, all by its lonesome. Her assertion buys every cheap gimmick that IL, CA, et al use to claim they have a “balanced budget”.

  7. I don’t even call them “union dues” anymore. Money taken from the workers to pay for hookers and blow for politicians and mobsters is the Organized Crime Tax.

    -jcr

    1. Not fair. When people see “organized Crime” they think Mafia. And the Mafia’s moral are rather better than the typical Public Servant Union official……

  8. Contrary to Dalmia’s final conclusions, there are very positive reasons for the GOP opposing unions regardless of a state’s fiscal status – those union dues that are spent electing politicians who work to maintain those dues and wages. This cozy arrangement has been in place for decades, and until broken, the GOP is always on the bottom end, both in terms of money and election day manpower, which unions provide. The obvious solution is for govt to subcontract out their manpower requirements and not directly employ any govt workers. The govt should issue RFPs for manpower and the result would be many small companies responding. Contracts with those worker-suplying companies
    would be for a period of say one year, after which they must re-compete. This eliminates a ton of problems for govts.

    1. And don’t forget, federal government unions are only possible because of an executive order by JFK. President Scott Walker could write an executive order reversing that one.

  9. “Republicans have no plans to spring any major labor reforms on other states”

    Why the fuck not? And I too don’t buy the rosy balance sheets. This is why they are the stupid party. Democrats push and push and push and eventually they have gotten every single item on their wishlist.

  10. I really just don’t understand the extreme anti-unionism of many libertarians, especially given the sad state of organized labor in this country. Private-sector unions are nearly non-existent and public-sector ones, which don’t come anywhere close to representing even a majority of government employees, have extremely limited bargaining power in many cases. Furthermore, it seems to me that we should actually oppose right-to-work laws. If any employer, for whatever reason, decides to enter into a closed-shop agreement with a union, what reason does the government have to meddle in that? Even if you think such agreements are bad, do you really want the government interfering in private contracts?

    1. “Furthermore, it seems to me that we should actually oppose right-to-work laws.”

      I don’t think you understand what a Right-to-work law is:

      “A “right-to-work” law is a statute in the United States that prohibits union security agreements, or agreements between labor unions and employers, that govern the extent to which an established union can require employees’ membership, payment of union dues, or fees as a condition of employment, either before or after hiring. ”

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Right-to-work_law

      Right-to-work laws prevent forced unionization. They don’t prevent an employee from voluntarily joining a union.

      1. I understand right-to-work laws don’t prevent workers from joining a union; that wasn’t my point.

        As the wiki page says, right-to-work laws ban contracts between employers and unions that make employment contingent upon union membership. Or, as I said, right-to-work laws ban closed shop agreements. We can debate if such agreements are smart for businesses or whether businesses would even actually choose them, but it seems obvious to me that a company should be allowed to enter into such a contract if it wants to. How is it substantively different from, say, an employer requiring its employees to purchase uniforms from a specific vendor? It just strikes me as blatant government meddling in private contracts.

    2. I don’t really find most of the libertarians on this board to be anti-union per se, but rather anti-public sector unions, especially when it is mixed with the idea of forced unionization.

      1. ^This. Even a small positive feedback loop (the bad kind) will cause problems eventually. The loop of public worker unions supporting Democrat politicians supporting public worker unions is bankruptcy cities and states across the country. Forget balancing the budgets, just look at unfunded pension liabilities.

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  12. The issue will eventually resolve itself, as workers leave union stronghold states for greener pastures.

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