Had People Voted at 2004 Rates Romney Would Have Won in 2012
According to William H. Frey, a demographer at the Brookings Institution, Romney would have narrowly won the presidential election in November last year had people voted at the same rates they did in 2004. In 2012, African Americans voted at the higher rate than any other minority group. Frey's analysis is the latest indication that the Republicans need to figure out how to attract minorities to the GOP if they don't want a repeat of 2012 in a few years time.
From the Associated Press:
WASHINGTON — America's blacks voted at a higher rate than other minority groups in 2012 and by most measures surpassed the white turnout for the first time, reflecting a deeply polarized presidential election in which blacks strongly supported Barack Obama while many whites stayed home.
Had people voted last November at the same rates they did in 2004, when black turnout was below its current historic levels, Republican Mitt Romney would have won narrowly, according to an analysis conducted for The Associated Press.
Census data and exit polling show that whites and blacks will remain the two largest racial groups of eligible voters for the next decade. Last year's heavy black turnout came despite concerns about the effect of new voter-identification laws on minority voting, outweighed by the desire to re-elect the first black president.
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