Barack Obama

California Presidential Poll: Obama Has Clear Lead, Romney Gains Slightly

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A new Reason-Rupe poll of 508 likely voters in California finds Obama continues to enjoy a significant lead in the state with 53 percent to Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney's 38 percent. Just weeks ago, however, a Field Poll conducted Sept 6-17 found Obama with a 24 point lead, 58 percent to 34 percent. This suggests that perhaps Romney's successful debate performance in early October cut Obama's margin from +24 to +15.

Fifty-five percent of Californians approve of the job President Obama is doing and 40 percent disapprove. Similarly, 59 percent of likely voters view the president favorably, with 38 percent viewing him unfavorably. In contrast, 49 percent of likely voters view Romney unfavorably and 42 percent view him favorably.

The poll also asked about Libertarian presidential candidate Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein. They garner 2 percent and 1 percent respectively. It is interesting to note that Gary Johnson's number is so low despite the 20 percent of likely California voters who are arguably more closely aligned with his positions than either Romney or Obama. Consider this—20 percent of California likely voters say that "people would be better able to handle today's problems within a free market with less government involvement" and "that too often, government regulation of businesses does more harm than good" andalso that "government should not favor any particular set of values." These come from our classic questions for gleaning ideological predispositions. This particular combination of answers indicate a libertarian predisposition. Yet, among these voters, only 6 percent plan to vote for Johnson, 64 percent plan to cast votes for Romney, and about a quarter will do so for Obama.

In line with other polls aggregated on Real Clear Politics, Senator Dianne Feinstein has maintained her consistent lead over Republican opponent Elizabeth Emken, 60 percent to 34 percent.

California telephone poll conducted October 11th-15th on both landline and cell phones, 696 adults, margin of error +/- 3.8%. The sample also includes 508 likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 5.1%. Columns may not add up to 100% due to rounding. Full methodology can be found here. Full poll results found here.

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  1. Obama in the lead in California? I’m shocked, I tell you, shocked.

    1. Also in the news: dog bites man, surfer says “dude.”

    2. The suspense was killing me.

  2. I thought this post on NRO was interesting:
    http://www.nationalreview.com/…..osh-jordan

    For all of the talk this year about party-ID breakdowns in polling (of which I am guilty myself), there is an underlying statistic that should have Team Obama extremely worried about their prospects: Mitt Romney leads with independents in every single national poll.

    This is no small feat ? in 2008 President Obama took independents by 8 percent. Today Romney’s lead with independents is, on average, 8.3 percent. That’s based on ten current national polls that provide independent head-to-head numbers (Gallup and UPI are the only two that do not): The 8.3 percentage lead with independents helps to overcome the 4.5 percent sample advantage Democrats have in those same polls, which is the reason Romney is able to scratch out a razor thin .2 percent lead:

    and note the Party ID Advantage in the chart.

    1. I’ve been saying for months on end that Romney is going to win, but for the first time I’m starting to think it could be a mini-landslide. Yes, Obama will certainly take California, most of the northeast, Hawaii, and Illinois, but it’s possible that Romney will take just about everything else.

      1. I’m assuming you consider Oregon and Washington to be annexed by California then? Because those are solid for Obama as well.

        1. You may be right, but the inside scuttlebutt out there is that Obama is actually having to battle in Oregon, which does seem pretty surprising.

  3. WHY ARE WE WASTING TIME TALKING ABOUT CALIFORNIA IN A PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION?

    1. BECAUSE THE REPUBLICANS RUINED CALIFORNIA AND THE WORLD NEEDS TO KNOW IT, YOU MONOCLED ASSHOLE.

      1. The internet is too precious to house such irrelevancies. The only state that matters is Ohio and you know it. Everyone, converge on Ohio!

        1. The internet is too precious to house such irrelevancies.

          *brain explodes*

    2. My Pennsylvania experience:

      Q. Hey, let’s talk about anything other than the election.
      A. Cool, but I’m not sure using Q to prepend your statement was proper.

  4. My republican sister asked me who I as voting for President. When I told her I was voting for Gary Johnson, she gave me a withering look. My response? “We live in California. Our votes don’t matter.” She agreed with me. They really don’t matter.

    1. You should have returned fire. What the hell has the GOP done for limited government in the last 40 years you twit?

      1. What did your wife Mary Magdalen say?

  5. Further confirming my suspicion that everybody in California except my small circle of friends is bat-shit crazy.

    1. I must then be part of your small circle of friends out here in California.

        1. Me too……

  6. My California experience:

    Q: Who are you voting for?

    A: I’m voting for Gary Johnson. I’m a libertarian.

    Q: Who’s Gary Johnson? And what is a libertarian?

    1. My Maryland experience

    2. I’m in Virginia, where they’re familiar enough with libertarians to say “You’re just helping the mooslim get reelected.”

      1. Oh, and “You must be a pothead.”

      2. So you’re friends with John IRL?

        1. I’m in the Norfolk area, military central.

      3. In my condo complex we have had the treasurer of the Virginia LP and several Ron Paul bumper stickers. I must live in some bizarro slice of Virginia.

      4. Also in VA! If you’re around the Leesburg area – come on out tomorrow to show your support: https://www.facebook.com/events/479646745390545/

    3. My Seattle experience:

      Q: Who are you voting for?

      A: I’m voting for the candidate that supported gay marriage from the beginning.

      Q: who’s that?

      A: Gary Johnson.

      Q: Oh, well I’m gay so I’m voting for Obama. Who’s Gary Johnson?

  7. Fifty-five percent of Californians approve of the job President Obama is doing and 40 percent disapprove.

    And how many of those 40 percent disapprove because he hasn’t gone full dictator?

    1. If he had only drone striked the Republicans in Congress, he could be at 90% approval in California.

  8. Fifty-five percent of Californians approve of the job President Obama is doing and 40 percent disapprove.

    California next to Detroit has the worst economy in the country. And 55% of its residents approve of the job Obama is doing? It is one thing to vote for Obama because you dislike Romney more. But who on either side who is not getting a check from Obama every month or is part of his family thinks Obama is doing a good job?

    If that is not peak retard, it is close.

    1. Believe me, California is not even close to peak retard yet. As the productive people continue to flee, the retard percentage will go even higher.

      1. Oh Jesus. Cali’s going into Critical Retard, where the increase in retard drives a positive feedback loop of exponentially increasing retard until….the Derp Horizon. It will either implode America or suck in all the Derp on America at a speed faster than the speed of Derp. Only time will tell.

        InB4 the movie it was my idea! Keep John Cusack out of it!

        1. When California inevitably goes Full Greece and starts demanding Bailouts from the rest of the country, then it will be sucking the Derp from the rest of America.

          You know what I can’t wait for? Californians burning down all their shit because I won’t empty my pockets.

          Burn baby burn.

  9. It is interesting to note that Gary Johnson’s number is so low despite the 20 percent of likely California voters who are arguably more closely aligned with his positions than either Romney or Obama. Consider this?20 percent of California likely voters say that “people would be better able to handle today’s problems within a free market with less government involvement”

    This is just bullshit sock-puppeteering by California voters. They have some vague memories of the Halcyon days of Silicon valley– tech hippies migrating to the Golden State, starting HP and Apple, and all of these great, freewheeling companies in Garages. But then these same people made it big and started to ‘fix’ the place. “California is great, but it needs fixing.”

    California is the perfect example of what happens when you fix something that isn’t broken.

    Silicon Valley is over. It’s done. Every state now wants to create its own “Silicon Valley”, but they want to do it by government fiat: creating “idea factories” by subsidizing these South Lake Union public/private development ‘visions’. They never work. NEVER. The next revolution isn’t created by government investment, it’s some kid in a basement tinkering with an idea using some technological refuse cast off by some bigger player who doesn’t see the potential.

    Fuck I’m in a mood today.

    1. I have no idea what you are talking about. My local Employment Development Department has assured me that a government/private sector synergy will solve Californias broken economy. Big Government in bed with Big Business… what could go wrong?

  10. With the Democrats in full control of California the people have realized the follies of statism and are supporting libertarianism. Oh wait…

  11. It’s highly likely that the Democrats will take super-majority control of the state government this November. There will be no stopping the crazy train (High Speed, of course) from going off the tracks.

    1. Naturally, the few remaining Republicans will be exercising their mysterious superpowers to make all those well-laid Dem supermajority plans go awry.

      BWAHAHAhaha.

  12. Sad that more people won’t vote for Gary Johnson, he is the best choice – I think both Dem/Rep voters would actually prefer him over the current choices. I’m going to suggest that if you don’t like Obama or Romney but are planning on voting for “the one you hate less,” that you instead vote for Gary Johnson. If everyone who was in that situation voted for Gary Johnson, he’d probably be the next President!

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