Economics

Obama Inauguration: The Market Speaks

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While the grand and glorious day began with CNN proffering, in a story last updated at 10 am yesterday, a headline about "Wall Street's Inaugural Rally," (that did admit that "Optimism about Barack Obama's first 100 days as president is running high, but Wall Street's post-inaugural celebration may well be short-lived), in fact we saw yesterday the Dow fall below 8,000, the worst finish since Nov. 20 and the worst inauguration day drop ever.

Not too much should be made of this one way or the other, particularly anything that implies that the president manipulates levers that can make prices, of stocks or anything, move either up or down at his will. (And so far today the Dow has crawled back above 8,000.) But it is worth remembering that as excited, for some very good reasons, as so many were yesterday, Obama's powers of positive influence are smaller than his fans think, and even as much changes, the moon will be still as bright, and the markets be still as endlessly shifting and difficult to control.

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  1. How the market does over the next several months or so will depend heavily on how much further towards socialism Obama and the Democrats decide that they really want to go.

    If investors see that tax increases and even more massive government intervention are coming, then mark my words, we still have a ways to go yet to get to the bottom.

  2. Markets don’t work! You’re all mindless, unsophisticated cultists! Economics is a lie! Baaa! Baaa!

  3. I’m on record as attributing some portion of the chaos in the market over the last few months to (1) Chicken-Little Syndrome and (2) concern about the possible coming of the socialist utopia. To clarify, I don’t necessarily think investors care about limited government or free markets, but they do like predictability. They may get that before too long.

  4. How the market does over the next several months or so will depend heavily on how much further towards socialism Obama and the Democrats decide that they really want to go.

    Or to put it another way, We’re all screwed.

    doom
    DoooM
    DOOOOM

  5. and the markets be still as endlessly shifting and difficult to control

    Thank God! That’s how it’s supposed to work isn’t it?

  6. Below 8,000? May be time for me jump back into the market.

  7. Below 8,000? May be time for me jump back into the market.

    That’s what I was thinking.

  8. Below 8,000? May be time for me jump back into the market.

    Exactly. I’m banking on the housing prices to bottom out by the time my lease is up in March 2010…

  9. your rightwingcapitalist house of cards is falling around you. i am happy to see it wasned to the see.

  10. Memo to conservatives everywhere:

    Most Obama voters don’t actually think he’s the messiah that will solve all our problems. They just think he was better than John McCain.

  11. ” …even as much changes, the moon will be still as bright, and the markets be still as endlessly shifting and difficult to control.”

    Gee, Brian, you’re a damn poet. But I wasn’t really expecting Obama’s inauguration to dim the moon.

  12. Jesus christ nobody, we get it. You think TEH LIBRULS are dumb. We get it. Please stop spamming every thread. Or at least start making jokes or something. A lot of threads on this site are downright unreadable because half the posts are yours.

  13. We have walked in ancient times
    And we’ve been burned for many crimes
    We have ended many lives
    But we never really died

    You have the sun, I have the moon

    You have to fly around the world all day
    To keep the sun upon your face
    I’d like to come and comfort you
    But I’d be blinded by the blue

    You have the sun, I have the moon

    You’re bound to die under the sun
    And I’ll be doomed to carry on
    You have become like other men
    But let me kiss you once again

    You have the sun, I have the moon

  14. maxhats the liberals are the future. do not you have some beer hall meeting to attend. you should be shining you’re jackboots for that.

  15. Max Hats – if you have Mozilla / Firefox, google “INCIF” – you’ll be very happy you did.

  16. Memo to conservatives everywhere:

    Most Obama voters don’t actually think he’s the messiah that will solve all our problems. They just think he was better than John McCain.

    Memo to liberals everywhere: now that the election is over and he is the POTUS, it doesn’t make a difference what people did or didn’t see in him. What matters from here on out are the results. Just like with anyone else.

  17. Memo to liberals everywhere: now that the election is over and he is the POTUS, it doesn’t make a difference what people did or didn’t see in him. What matters from here on out are the results. Just like with anyone else.

    Really the only people I’ve heard who don’t believe that on any part of the political spectrum are the goddamned press. They really need to stuff this “it’s a historic whatever!!! YAY!!!” theme.

  18. Most Obama voters don’t actually think he’s the messiah that will solve all our problems.

    Oh puleeeeeze.

  19. Most Obama voters don’t actually think he’s the messiah that will solve all our problems.

    It’s way worse than watching Fleetwood Mac singing Yesterday’s Gone at the Clintonian Love Fest.

    Yes I know, that isn’t the title of the tune but it WAS the lyric de jour.

  20. Ele,

    the goddamned press

    On The Today Show, they aired pictures of the crowd on The Mall taken from a satellite. Lauer goes: “The crowd was so big, you could SEE IT FROM SPACE!”

    You can see my 2,000 sq. ft. house from space on Google Maps, you moron!

    If I had known how it was going to turn out, I would have bought hyperbole futures last July.

  21. the wine commonsewer, i figured you to be more of a tuesdays gone with the win person.

  22. Taktix,

    May be to late in 2010. A recovery is expected by the end of this year. Though the inevitable inflation will probably begin in 2010.

  23. sugar free, seeing hope and change from space is just destroying your rightwing brain is it not.

  24. BakedPenguin,

    Mozilla? Why doesn’t he just get a Mac while he’s at it? Sheesh!

  25. macs are superior to all other computers.

  26. If I had known how it was going to turn out, I would have bought hyperbole futures last July.

    Heh, LOL.

  27. Why? Do socialists make them?

  28. To Obama’s Useful Idiots: The Chosen One would now like you to be silent for four years until he needs you again…feel free to donate more cash, though.

  29. Below 8,000? May be time for me jump back into the market.

    Wait for 6,000. It will get close or below that this year.If it keeps falling and never goes above 6k for 20+ years you should have bought ammo and bulk food.

  30. SIV, you fool! I’ve been thinking the bottom is going to be at some point just below 8000 since September. If it goes down to 6000 or less, I turn warlord as the apocalypse has come. Either way I win.

  31. But it is worth remembering that as excited, for some very good reasons, as so many were yesterday

    Really, what were they?

  32. “I am the Nightrider. I’m a fuel injected suicide machine. I am the rocker, I am the roller, I am the out-of-controller! I’m the Nightrider, baby!”

  33. Naga Sadow as Nightrider | January 21, 2009, 2:08pm | #

    “I am the Nightrider. I’m a fuel injected suicide machine. I am the rocker, I am the roller, I am the out-of-controller! I’m the Nightrider, baby!”

    You and David Hasselhoff are teh gay…

  34. markets move based on intermediate term expectations, with perturbations based on unexpected news flow.

    yesterday’s newsflow was negative on the banking front.

    obama’s inauguration was a non-event on the markets. he gave another eloquent speech, and didn’t announce martial law.
    .

  35. You can see my 2,000 sq. ft. house from space on Google Maps, you moron!

    Images on google maps are generally from high altitude aircraft, not satellites. But Lauer is still a moron.

  36. Taktix,

    Ow. My pride . . .

  37. BakedPenguin,

    Mozilla? Why doesn’t he just get a Mac while he’s at it? Sheesh!

    Incidentally I run Mozilla.

    On a Mac.

    I was unaware that was some sort of stereotype and am horrified to embody it.

    If it changes anything, I regret my Mac purchase. Shitty hardware, terrible fanboys clogging up the technical support forums, and way too pricey. I should have just put OSX on a good pc.

  38. I’ve been really, really, really, really scared about just how badly the Dems are getting ready to fuck the economy – I’ve been freaking out about hyperinflation and everything else.

    So today I read a Dick Morris (don’t laugh – yet – let me finish) — opinion piece and basically, we’re all doomed and Obama is going to ram through everyone dumbfuck legislative wetdream the Dems have ever thought of, including nationalized health are — and old people will die! care will be rationed! they won’t let you pay for it even if you want to! — etc etc etc it’s all over, we’re fucked, etc.

    And I’m thinking – what if just once – JUST ONCE – Dick Morris is right about something? And what if this is that one thing?

    I’m going to go look for a paper bag now.

  39. MAX HATS,

    Relax. I was just making a crack at BakedPenguin. Personally, I don’t care what my computer is just as long as it works. I’m not that kind of geek.

  40. SIV, you fool! I’ve been thinking the bottom is going to be at some point just below 8000 since September.
    Naga
    You missed 7552 in November!

  41. stubby,

    Don’t know about most of your fears . . . or care but the hyperinflation part can be put off for a while. Banks aren’t lending money despite an insane level of liquidity thanks to the feds. They won’t start lending the bulk of those funds till we are well on our way out of the recession. THAT is when shit will begin hitting the fan. You got about a year to 3 years till inflation is a real worry for you.

  42. And I’m thinking – what if just once – JUST ONCE – Dick Morris is right about something?

    Bill Kristol seems optimistic about Obama.
    Be very afraid.

  43. SIV,

    Hmmmmm. Indeed.

  44. I’m not worrying about hyper-inflation until people start getting big stimulus checks regularly in the mail.I’m moving out of USD as soon as it is viably proposed in congress.

  45. This reminds me SIV. Some crazy new law about cockfighting came down recently. Apparently they passed it right before Obama’s inauguration. Here you go.

  46. I could see double digit inflation in the near term. One good thing about having the worlds largest economy is that it would take an assload of inflation before it went hyper. Kind of like the fat kid in class needing an extra dose of Ritalin.

    Naga – you run MS Internet Explorer? Are you on aol.com still, too?

  47. BakedPenguin,

    Negative. Mozilla and some local cable modem. All the info I got.

  48. Sales of reason–the market speaks. Donate now!

  49. I haven’t posted here yet Libertards. Quit spoofing me.

  50. I guess the market ignored the nationalization of its two largest retail banks (C and BAC) – making their equity virtually worthless and instead concentrated on Obama’s surprise inauguration.

    FWIW, since the Dow is price weighted, the four financial components could be repriced at zero and the Dow would only fall 300 points. OTOH, a scandal at IBM could take it down 1200 points (although that won’t happen). The DIAmond is good for a 20% lift this year.

  51. …the worst inauguration day drop ever.
    Not too much should be made of this one way or the other…

    Don’t let that stop any of us from commenting anyway.

    Below 8,000? May be time for me jump back into the market.

    If you jumped out of the market last autumn and sealed your losses in concrete, you’re a fool. But if you bit the bullet and held on, buying opportunities like this one are extremely rare. Under 55 years old and have some cash? Buy into a reputable mutual fund, preferably an inexpensive but managed small-cap fund.*

    *This opinion is provided for general information only and nothing contained in the material constitutes a recommendation for the purchase or sale of any security. Views are subject to change on the basis of additional or new research, new facts or developments. The commenter may or may not be a crackpot.

  52. ed,

    Does selling my Ford bonds count? Other than that I’ve withheld purchases and just held onto my money. Though I did try to buy a condo in December before it fell through a day before we signed anything.

  53. The market is back up today.

    Just sayin’.

  54. I called my fund manager and told him I wanted to move my retirement into something safe in the summer of 2007.

    Then he talked be out of it.

    Why the hell do I EVER listen to other people? Other people don’t know shit.

    You know why I do this? I’ll tell you why – it’s my superhuman humility.

  55. Okay. This is what you do. Max out one entire credit card. Then shift the balance to another card. Continue this process till profitability.

  56. And I’m thinking – what if just once – JUST ONCE – Dick Morris is right about something? And what if this is that one thing?

    Will never happen. Morris is the fuckstick who wrote an 08 election book called ‘Hillary vs. Condi’.

    His stupidity did get him a gig on Fox News though.

  57. Q: How does maxing it out lead to profitability? There are still some fees.

    A: You make it up on volume.

  58. “Naga Sadow as joe’s fund manager | January 21, 2009, 3:05pm | #
    Okay. This is what you do. Max out one entire credit card. Then shift the balance to another card. Continue this process till profitability.”

    Sounds like you would do very well in Washington, Naga!

  59. I doubt the markets were shocked that Obama was inaugurated.

    The markets reacted as soon it as appeared likely Obama would win. If he governs better than they expected, they’ll rebound. If he throws trillions of dollars into wasteful government spending and institutes useless economy-crippling “global warming” policies, they won’t.

  60. I think you got it backwards.

    The market tanked, and then Obama pulled ahead in the polls. IIRC the day Lehman Bros. collapsed and the market crashed McCain was tied or ahead.

  61. It was also the day he said “the fundamentals are strong”, at which point be blew any chance of winning.

  62. Also, if you’re looking for safe investments in a high tax bracket right now, a good play recently has been to arbitrage the difference between muni bonds and you home mortgages rates. It’s only a couple percent, but it’s basically free money.

  63. BDB | January 21, 2009, 3:20pm | #

    I think you got it backwards.

    TallDave was looking in a mirror when he wrote that.

  64. BDB,

    They would have started pricing in a potental Obama victory long before that. Even a 40% chance has huge implications, and it was higher than that most of the year.

    http://www.nationalpost.com/933172.bin

  65. Joe,

    Your comment would normally be hilarious. But you did not fill out the paperwork in triplicate. I do apologize.

    BDB,

    The appropriate paperwork was not filled out. Please see lines 12, 14, 34, and 374a. I’m afraid that a judgement has been issued against you.

  66. The market should have crashed in June then, not September. September, when the market went through the floor, was McCain’s high water mark for God’s sake!

  67. Why? Nothing unexpected happened in June.

    What you would expect to see is steadily mounting pressure. When Lehman went under, the dam burst and the market tanked as Obama’s victory began to look inevitable.

  68. The market didn’t go down because Obama went up in the polls, Obama went up in the polls because the market went down. Lehman Bros. and the collapsing financial system was a bigger deal than political polls.

  69. I did fill it out in triplicate! You just lost one of the copies!

  70. Or are you saying the chance of Obama winning caused the financial system to collapse? Is that really what you’re saying?

  71. What you would expect to see is steadily mounting pressure. When Lehman went under, the dam burst and the market tanked as Obama’s victory began to look inevitable.

    Just to be completely clear:

    Are you saying the market tanking was caused by Obama’s victory prospects?

  72. The market didn’t go down because Obama went up in the polls, Obama went up in the polls because the market went down.

    You’re only looking at the tail. The whole year correlates pretty strongly.

  73. “MAX HATS | January 21, 2009, 3:42pm | #
    Are you saying the market tanking was caused by Obama’s victory prospects?”

    That seems to be what he is saying.

  74. Did Obama cause Lehman Bros and Bear Sterns to collapse?

  75. What about sub prime loans and the derivatives based on their valuation? Did they matter at all? Or is the market purely concerned with Obama? I’m looking to gain some wisdom here.

  76. Are you saying the market tanking was caused by Obama’s victory prospects?

    Are you saying the markets were looking forward to the higher taxes and restrictive environmental policies he promised? Is that how socialists think we get higher profits?

    Oh wait, it is. Sorry, I forgot.

  77. Dave, McCain was for cap-and-trade, too.

  78. Did Obama cause Lehman Bros and Bear Sterns to collapse?

    No, that was more Barney Frank, Chris Dodd, etc., and the subprime loans they demanded FNMA and Freddie Mac make. But yes, some portion of the decline is attributable to Obama.

  79. Dave, McCain was for cap-and-trade, too.

    He was for a watered-down version. Obama’s was worse.

  80. So since he has these magical effects on the market should we credit him for gas prices going down? Just asking.

  81. Are you saying the markets were looking forward to the higher taxes and restrictive environmental policies he promised?

    No, he’s arguing AGAINST there being a correlation between Obama’s electoral prospects and the market, not FOR a different one.

    This reminds me of when TallDave claimed that the Reverend Wright story caused Obama’s poll numbers to drop BEFORE THE VIDEO AIRED.

  82. “MAX HATS | January 21, 2009, 3:47pm | #
    What about sub prime loans and the derivatives based on their valuation? Did they matter at all? ”

    No, apparently not. It’s Obama’s magical powers. He caused the recession, too, when he was down 20 points in Iowa to Clinton.

  83. *Adjusts glasses*

    Well . . . joe . . . is it? It’s joe right? Listen I would love to help you. I would. There is no need to raise your voice. Here. Fill these forms out. The first one is a Request for Authentication Form. Sign here, here, here, and initial here, then sign here, and . . . initial, initial, and then date the document. The second form there is a Formal Request to Review your Submitted Documents. Sign, initial, date, date, date, sign, sign sign, sign, initial, date, and then sign the document. And finally this document is a Request for Arbitration in Case of Lost or Missing Documents. Sign, here, here, here, here, inital, initial, date, initial, and sign here. Please fill all of these documents and then return them to us within 3 business days. We will have you another interview in approximately six weeks. Thank you for your time.

  84. “No, he’s arguing AGAINST there being a correlation between Obama’s electoral prospects and the market, not FOR a different one.”

    Yes, that’s correct. I’m saying the market is concerned with bigger things than partisanship, and any effect that has is small compared to you know, the entire fucking financial system collapsing!.

  85. Blaming him for the market going down is even stupider than the liberals who have been telling me that his election cause gas prices to go down because the oil companies are scared of him.

  86. I called my fund manager and told him I wanted to move my retirement into something safe in the summer of 2007.

    While talking to a client last week he told me that his guy told him to get out of the market and into bonds late spring 2007. He did. And he is happy as a clam. His guy also told him to sell his house and rent an apartment, which he did not do.

    See now, that is MY kind of investment guy.

  87. I meant the investment adviser told my client to sell his house back in spring of 07 and rent an apt.

  88. So since he has these magical effects on the market should we credit him for gas prices going down?

    It’s not magic, it’s just markets reacting rationally to proposed policies.

    Other events played a large part too, but let’s not pretend elections have no market consequences.

  89. Are you saying the markets were looking forward to the higher taxes and restrictive environmental policies he promised? Is that how socialists think we get higher profits?

    Oh wait, it is. Sorry, I forgot.

    Do you have the guts to give me a simple yes or no?

    Obama’s electoral prospects caused the current financial crisis. Yes or no. Please.

  90. There is no need to raise your voice. ding!

    Fill these forms out. ding!

    2/3. You forgot to lead off with…

    “I did fill it out in triplicate! You just lost the form!”

    “We have no record of that.”

  91. Does selling my Ford bonds count?

    No. Ed does not put his precious eggs in risky individual enterprises. Ed is not that smart. He is lazy. Ed does mutual funds. Less sexy, and way less volatile.*

    *Past performance is no guarantee of anything. Consult with a Reputable Financial Expert?.
    Or Nancy Pelosi. Do not trust Ed. He may be a crackpot.

  92. Don’t gamble; take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don’t go up, don’t buy it.

  93. Ed does mutual funds. Less sexy, and way less volatile.

    I’m concerned that a gallows humor bubble may be developing in response to the financial crisis.

  94. BDB,

    Happily I was on vacation at the time out in the wilderness (nearly zero cellphone coverage, no computer, etc.), so I was gone for two weeks camping, backpacking, etc. and came back to people “FREAKING OUT!”

    Those liberals have basically never heard of supply and demand. Because that is basically what determines the price of gasoline (and everything else), not taking into account the distorting effects of taxes, regulations, etc.

  95. “Those liberals have basically never heard of supply and demand. Because that is basically what determines the price of gasoline (and everything else), not taking into account the distorting effects of taxes, regulations, etc.”

    Yes, no shit. But partisans have a warped view of the world where everything revolves around how well their party is doing.

  96. BDB,

    Well, in both major parties there is definitely a conspiracy theorist elements; strangely enough, in both cases it often centers on foreigners.

  97. The Wine Commonsewer | January 21, 2009, 3:57pm | #

    While talking to a client last week he told me that his guy told him to get out of the market and into bonds late spring 2007. He did. And he is happy as a clam. His guy also told him to sell his house and rent an apartment, which he did not do.

    “His guy” is either very smart or very lucky. I’m neither, so I tend to put my money on the smart guys. But wasn’t Alan Greenspan also A Smart Guy??

  98. Anyway, TallDave is right in the general sense that regime uncertainty can lead to a decrease in investment – or rather, the desire to invest. Or spend money. Etc. As far as that applies to the specific case at hand, I’d think that the shifting positions of the Bush administration were more to blame for any regime uncertainty than the election of Obama.

  99. “Also, if you’re looking for safe investments …”

    Invest in a few Ball canning jars, put all your cash in them and bury them in the back yard.

  100. One thing I heard today concerned the piling of government actually leading to higher actual interest rates. So any stimulus package could be undermining whatever the Fed is doing.

  101. Anyway, TallDave is right in the general sense that regime uncertainty can lead to a decrease in investment – or rather, the desire to invest. Or spend money. Etc. As far as that applies to the specific case at hand, I’d think that the shifting positions of the Bush administration were more to blame for any regime uncertainty than the election of Obama.

    That is not what TallDave is saying. He is demonstrating, with graphs, that the recent market downturn was a reaction to Obama’s electoral prospects.

    Or at least I’m pretty sure. He doesn’t seem to want to clarify his statements. Wiggle room – the last refuge of the wingnut.

  102. “His guy” is either very smart or very lucky. I’m neither, so I tend to put my money on the smart guys. But wasn’t Alan Greenspan also A Smart Guy??

    I haven’t decided if he was lucky or smart. Anyone who believed the housing market was going up indefinitely was a few bricks short of a load.

    Stock market wasn’t quite so easy to call.

    TWC

  103. a gallows humor bubble may be developing

    I’d bet on it, joe.*

    *Make sure you sell when everyone agrees that Wolf Blitzer is funny.

  104. I meant that the housing market topping out was fairly predictable as compared to forecasting the market problems.

    TWC

  105. the housing market topping out was fairly predictable

    Yeah, we all suspected it. But why did so few of us act on it?
    Answer that correctly, and you’ll become the next billionaire.

  106. But Max, if the market dropped in the same fashion the day GWB was inaugurated many would be arguing exactly what The Tall One is arguing.

    For that matter, every news account of every downturn is accompanied by finger pointing at some significant event.

    MARKET DOWN ON NEWS OF WAR

    MARKET UP AS FED LOWERS DISCOUNT RATE

    MARKET DOWN AS OIL FUTURES RISE

    I could go on, but you get the picture.

  107. But I wasn’t really expecting Obama’s inauguration to dim the moon.

    No, it wasn’t. Brian was speaking metaphorically. However, his inauguration was supposed to reverse global warming. Looks like it might have worked.

  108. ed, TWC,

    It was easily predictable THAT the housing bubble would burst.

    It was not easily predictable WHEN.

    If you could go back in time and ask flippers who bought houses in December 2004 and sold them in July 2006, they’d tell you that the bubble was going to burst some day.

  109. In fact, if you follow my link (I’m sure this will change over time), you see a picture of Obama in the sidebar, waving his healing hand. Frankly, I’m impressed.

  110. the housing market topping out was fairly predictable

    Yeah, we all suspected it. But why did so few of us act on it?

    Lots of reasons for that. To win, you would have had to get completely out of the housing market.

    To partially win, you would have had to move to a lower cost housing market where you would have a better house for less money BUT you would still be in about the same spot you’re in now (not accounting for market differential). IOW, your better house would have declined in value proportionally.

    Happened to see a news story about an ex-neighbor that packed up and moved to Utah a few years ago. He thought he’d seen the top of the market and was bemoaning the fact that he should have waited another two years.

    20/20 hindsight

  111. If you could go back in time and ask flippers who bought houses in December 2004 and sold them in July 2006, they’d tell you that the bubble was going to burst some day.

    As they wipe their brow.

  112. Some perspective, Paul.

    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/bb/Instrumental_Temperature_Record.svg

    Lots of 10-year periods that average out flat during the 20th century, and the large warming trend is still evident.

  113. Joe–

    Does it really matter even if it is real? Do you really think India and China are going to stop building coal fired power plants every day? No. How do you intend to make them stop? They’re not going to sacrifice their growth so western liberals can feel good.

  114. Are you going to ask the Indian and Chinese middle class to stop buying and driving cars, too?

  115. Well Joe, of course you are right, but the ‘when’ of the housing bubble was definitely easier to peg than the stock market.

    It was fairly apparent out here by early 2007 that the ride was done. Still no way to pick a precise date but if you were paying attention you would have realized that it was not a good time to borrow out all your equity, or hawk your house and dump all the profits into a house you couldn’t really afford.

    All circumstantial evidence of course. But most people who could afford to move up were done and there weren’t many new buyers, particularly entry level buyers left in the market. A bit like a Ponzi scheme. Not quite, but it works as an illustration.

  116. relax baby it’ll be all right

  117. BDB,

    You’re buying into talking points. Who has ever – ever – said that confronting global warming means we keep technology the same but use less energy?

    I think China and India need a whole bunch of nuke plants, wind turbines, hydro plants, solar plants, and other non-carbon-based energy sources, just like we do.

    “What does it matter if it’s real?” What are you, kidding me? Are there any other political debates you don’t think benefit from an accurate understanding of the underlying facts?

    TWC,

    Good point – the housing bubble’s was easier to peg than the stock market. But, then, most people in the stock market (or at least their managers) can buy and sell quickly, while most people can’t “get out of the market” when it comes to housing. Cuz of, you know, snow and wind and stuff.

  118. It was fairly apparent out here by early 2007 that the ride was done. Still no way to pick a precise date but if you were paying attention

    Anecdotally, I began to suspect something was up in late 2006, because my neighbor couldn’t sell his house. I found it strange that in a supposed ‘red hawte’ market such as Seattle, his house was sitting on the market. And sitting. I kept writing it off to stuff such as “well, he’s already moved out of town and his realtor probably doesn’t feel the same pressure. Maybe he’s asking a little too much*, it needs a little work, etc. etc.

    *The ‘housing bubble’ is the effect of everyone asking too much. The housing crisis would be over tomorrow if sellers would just start asking what their houses were really worth. Not what they wanted to sell them for. Myself included.

  119. I haven’t posted yet in this thread yet, dickwads. Stop spoofing me.

  120. joe — all available evidence suggests that the computer models were wrong, and global temperature has been level (or even declining slightly) for the last 5-10 years. Why don’t you Google that and get back to us.

  121. If we are in such an environmental emergency, I wonder why Obama has not made anything related to the environment his very first order of business?

  122. Right Captain Obvious, if the facts don’t support your libertarian fantasy, then change the facts!

  123. We’re all going TO DIE!!!!

  124. Joe-

    Coal is cheaper for China and India than wind turbines or solar. It’s cheap as dirt compared to “green” technology, and we’re not going to be able to force them to use the kind of technology we want them to use. They’re going to chose to use what is cheap and availible to them.

  125. Captain Obvious,

    Why would I bother to google it, when the chart I linked to shows the same thing?

    It also shows dozens of other ten-year leveling periods over the course of the 20th century – a century which produced a net warming of several degrees.

    This is really not a difficult point.

  126. Coal is cheaper for China and India than wind turbines or solar.

    Not if you include externalities in the cost. There’s no China and India exception to the effects of climate change.

    And also too, the point of investing in these new technologies is to bring the cost down.

  127. sage,

    You know he was sworn in yesterday, right? That he hasn’t even submitted a bill to Congress yet?

  128. Think about the intellect it must take to look at a chart of average global temperatures over the past century, and think that the leveling off over the past 10 years means something.

    You would have to ignore:

    The enormous year-to-year variations – all of those pointy things up and down.

    The obvious, uninterrupted upward trend – the way it’s all like low and stuff at the left, and all high and stuff at the right.

    The fact that the ten years of the “cooling off” period are ten of the eleven hottest years on the entire graph.

    The fact that choosing either 1997 or 1999, rather than 1998, as your starting point shows that average global temperatures increased.

    This is yet another reason to ignore the denialists’ yammerings – you have to shut off part of your brain in order for their arguments to make any sense.

  129. If you choose either the year 2000 or the year 1996 as your starting point, the figures show that temperatures have increased faster in the past eight, or the past 12, years than in the preceding century.

    To my list above, of really obvious things you’d have to ignore in order to believe that temperature data demonstrates that global warming has stopped or reversed, add:

    The fact that 1998 is the most extreme outlier on the entire chart

    but even that won’t do it, unless you also ignore:

    The fact that choosing an extreme outlier as your control group is what those in the business of statistical analysis call “pretty effed up yo.”

  130. joe-
    He was sworn in yesterday but Congress has been in session for two weeks now. They’re a co-equal branch, right?

    More seriously re: “There’s no China and India exception to the effects of climate change.”

    No, but the fact that each has over a half-billion people living on a dollar a day is important on both sides of the equation.

  131. by ‘no’ i mean ‘yes, there is no exception’

  132. He was sworn in yesterday but Congress has been in session for two weeks now.

    So, Barack Obama didn’t submit a bill to Congress before he took office, and Congress didn’t draw up a bill that addressed one of the subjects he’s said he’s going to be active in before he took office.

    I’m less than chagrined.

  133. No, but the fact that each has over a half-billion people living on a dollar a day…

    means that they are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change AND that they need long term, sustainable economic development.

    Which brings us back to solar, wind, and nukular.

  134. I laughed when a mainstream media financial expert was shocked that the market didn’t rally and said that no-one could predict it wouldn’t.

  135. Lots of reasons for that. To win, you would have had to get completely out of the housing market.

    Not at all. There are lots of publicly traded companies that are “housing” companies – builders, banks (as we have learned to our sorrow). Short them, as some did, and you could have won big.

    Think about the intellect it must take to look at a chart of average global temperatures over the past century, and think that the leveling off over the past 10 years means something.

    Of course, that same chart shows a pretty good disconnect with CO2 content in the atmosphere, and casts a great deal of doubt on the predictive powers of the models that are predicting catastrophic AGW.

    We “denialists” aren’t denying a warming trend joe – you’re tilting at windwills. We are denying that the current AGW models and predictions are anywhere close to being strong enough to justify the kind of massive social engineering that is being sought in their name.

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