Barr Smashing the Third Party Opposition….***(Not Anymore….)


…says CNN right now, with 11 percent of precincts reported. The Libertarian Party's Barr is at 108,000 or so, more than four time the Ron Paul-anointed Chuck Baldwin, and a good 30K ahead of Nader.

If a straight extrapolation holds, Barr will far exceed the 550,000 I called for him in a comment thread earlier in the day, and actually reach the magic million. Developing….

UPDATE: Won't be updating this all night–check the link for the freshest–but with 14 percent of precincts reporting, Barr's at 120K, not quite 30K ahead of Nader with 91,000, and still about 4 times ahead of Baldwin.

UPDATE II: The straight extrapolation is already faltering–with 17 percent reporting, a straight extrapolation from now would have Barr totalling 805,000 or so. Despite my own earlier call of 550K for Barr, with this information I've already made a bet with someone that he'll now beat 600K.

UPDATE III: I promised I wouldn't update all night, and I won't! But one more at least. Yes, straight extrapolations are dangerous things. With 23 percent reporting, Barr's at 163,737–still ahead of Nader, but by less than 20K now. And the extrapolations continue to mislead–from this point, if all remains equal, Barr will total in at around 712,000.

UPDATE IV: THE QUEST FOR PEACE. I really am walking away from the computer for a while now. The heading should now more appropriately, at 28 percent of precincts reported, "Barr beating the Third Party Opposition." He's still ahead of Nader, but only by 8 thousand or so, and that may well not hold–in fact, it seems likely not to.

A straight extrapolation from right now would have Barr at 655K total. But remember how misleading that has been so far: he's right now only at about 67 percent of where he would be if the extrapolation from 11 percent reported held. So, I'm feeling better and better about the prediction I made before I had a bit of data on actual votes: 550,000 for Barr. And feeling a little nervous about that breaking 600K bet.

UPDATE V: With 31 percent reported, Nader is within a thousand or so of Barr, who is at 196,212. This headline will doubtless no longer apply in any variant within an hour or so of 7:15 pacific time, when I now write.

UPDATE VI: Went to listen to a bunch of well-to-do people at a hoity Pasadena hotel mostly cheer and clap the Obama acceptance speech (then heard one earnestly explain to table mates how people lose incentive to work when jobs or money are guaranteed); when I returned to my computer, well, Nader was/is over 130,000 ahead of Barr.

And it looks certain that I both lost my bet (made in the flush of a Barr whose vote totals were highly overweighted in that first 11 percent of precincts that reported) and overwhelmingly likely that I overestimated Barr's pull in my pre-vote-count guess: With 85 percent reported as I write, Barr is at 442,061 votes.

Well, he did do better than Badnarik, just like all his fans promised he would. 

NEXT: Poll Closings at 9 p.m.: Arizona, Colorado, Kansas, Louisiana, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Texas, Wisconsin, Wyoming

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  1. Paging warren and tao. Paging warren and tao.

  2. And this is impressive for what reason?

  3. 2762 for Mich, so far…

  4. Hey, Mich looks like it’ll pass Prop 1. Legalizing Medical Marijuana. Maybe the world isn’t going to hell.

  5. Interesting thing just happened with the Kansas results: About 20 minutes ago, the AP results on the C-SPAN site showed Barr at 2.3%. Whoa! So I drilled down to the county-by-county results, and sho’ ’nuff, it showed Barr *winning* a county (Neosho): 74.8% of the vote with 18% of the precincts counted. Neosho wasn’t blue or red–it was green! I grabbed a screen shot to commemorate the occasion. But within a few minutes, the results changed drastically: With 29% of the precincts counted, McCain had about 65% of the vote, with Barr at 0.3%. Perhaps a Barr supporter was having some fun.

    Also, it looks like Nader is about to catch Barr in the national popular vote count, unfortunately.

  6. In my county in PA, the Libertarian candidate for Auditor General (of the state) has 1358 votes as of now. The candidate for Attorney General: 764. Bob Barr: 87.

    What a shameful turnout by Libertarians who should have known that McCain had no chance in PA anyway. What an opportunity missed. For Fuck’s sake, Nader is beating Barr in PA by more than 2:1!

  7. Nader just passed Barr.

  8. Nader has now passed Barr. I expect this to continue, as I expect Calif. to be Nader’s best state.

  9. Lol, you are clearly a gambler

  10. Don’t blame libertarians for this, blame the arrogant Bob Barr and his deluded quasi-libertarian supporters. Real libertarians couldn’t stomach the man, especially after his fraudulent sabotaging of the Paul press conference. Good riddance Bob Barr, and if the LP can’t do any better, maybe its time to say good bye to them too.

  11. Yeah, I voted for the Party, not Barr. What a bum. Seriously, LP candidates never have anything to lose, and in the mass media age you should be able to get over a million from a country where possibly 10% leans libertarian. It’s embarrassing.

  12. Looks like a squeaker in Indiana.

    And Barr has more than the major party margin…

  13. QUOTE: Looks like a squeaker in Indiana. …And Barr has more than the major party margin…

    Indeed, it looks like Indiana was the only state (so far) where Barr managed to get over 1% of the vote. (Geez, he couldn’t even get 1% in Georgia, but he get’s it from college-aged kids in Indiana! At least there is hope for the future in the heartland.)

    The LP has got some serious thinking to do — there is no way to call this year’s lost historic opportunity anything but a clusterf*ck — and Reason certainly contributed to that loss, so it isn’t just the LP who needs to be doing a little introspection.

  14. Ron Paul is crushing the other third-party candidates in Montana.

  15. Chuck Baldwin got endorsed by RP and he’s way behind Barr. So I really don’t think Barr’s disappointing showing is due to dissing RP.

  16. Andy,

    I live in a swing state, so I had operatives from the campaigns showing up at my doorstep a couple of times a week during the past month … and every time I told them I was voting for Barr, they replied “but he’s not going to win!”

    Now I’ve been an LP member for some years now, and I’m pretty sure I know what I stand for at this point. So my response to these people was some slightly more polite version of “fuck you”. But if you’re talking about someone whose interest was merely piqued by seeing Barr on Glenn Beck or something, and thought he had some good ideas, this interest is not going to wither in the face of constant opposition from the media and from shitheads like these operatives who tell people that any vote not for the blues or the reds is wasted.

  17. should be “…this interest is going to wither…”

  18. And to think I was telling people that Barr would get 5%. What a crappy campaign he ran. At least a Root (on his own) campaign would’ve been fun. I’m starting to think I should’ve written in Charles Jay’s name instead (he was an official write-in candidate here in AZ). I may start giving the Democratic Freedom Caucus a second look (Ron Paul being in the GOP absolutely cannot make up for Dick Cheney, Karl Rove, Mitt Romney and their crowd having all the pull) ’cause the national LP is a joke.

  19. Seth, you’re about as dumb as a brick with mayonnaise on it.

  20. Ron Paul 2008 + Bob Barr 2008 + Chuck Baldwin 2008 + Charles Fucking Jay & George Fucking Phillies 2008 = EPIC FAIL.

    they came, they saw, they divided, they were conquered.

  21. Of course he did better than Badnarik, not because he was a better candidate than Badnarik (much to the contrary), but because Badnarik ran during an election year where the race between the Democrat and the Republican was very close. The LP always does better in years where the public knows or believes there will be a landslide for one of the two Establishment candidates.

  22. What an absolutely horrendous performance by Barr. To lose to Nader by 160,000 votes?! Wasn’t he supposed to approach 1,000,000? He didn’t even crack 500,000.

    I was hopeful that this election we would be able to point to Barr’s performance and force conservatives to take small government seriously again.

    But with only 0.3% of the total vote, they won’t view FISA or the PATRIOT ACT or the big spending of Bush as the reason for the loss. This is all going to be put on McCain or Palin as the reason for the loss. So I guess we can expect a Romney or Guiliani or someone of that ilk in ’12 as opposed to a step back to small government conservatism

    This election that had so much promise to prove a libertarian point to conservatives was been completely wasted. Very disheartening.

  23. Phillies 2008 = EPIC FAIL.

    Really, I thought they won the World Series.

  24. In Texas, more people voted for the Libertarian Senate candidate, Yvonne Schick, than voted for Bob Barr, by a more than 3 to 1 margin. (Barr got 56,338 votes, Shick got 184,601). I think it says more about John Coryn’s Bailout Vote than anything else…

  25. Really, I thought they won the World Series.

    touche… ever since the due to the epic fail Cubs debacle I wasn’t even paying attention…

  26. This is a colossal failure for the LP. The truly pathetic thing is that the LP isn’t even creative in how they lose. They lose the same way every time.

  27. I voted for the LP, not Barr. I have my criticisms of him. But still, I figured he would do better than this. Truly pathetic showing.

    I’m not sure there should even be a Libertarian Party now because embarrassing numbers for a guy like Barr… who is a “name”… could possibly make libertarian thought look like a joke and might keep people from exploring it further.

    The LP should either focus more on libertarian activism or go back to a more radical platform.

    On the bright side, that nut Baldwin and the CP apparently benefited little from RP’s endorsement. Maybe Baldwin supporters can stop trolling on libertarian blogs and Digg posts now.

  28. Not dumb enough to have mayonnaise covered bricks floating around in my repertoire of epithet modifiers; jeez Optimist, intelligent response there.

    Reason, how about a way to report offensive, ad hominem posts?

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