Friday Open Thread

What's on your mind?

Comments

[Kazinski]

PPI.came out today and if was shockingly high month over month, which I'm told doesn't mean much, but certainly everyone can see if it continues it will mean a lot.

"The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.9 percent in July, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices were unchanged in June and moved up 0.4 percent in May. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand advanced 3.3 percent for the 12 months ended in July, the largest 12-month increase since rising
3.4 percent in February 2025.

But because I do get accused of over emphasizing the m/m numbers lets look at in context with the full year:

PPI final Demand__m/m rate__y/y rate
Aug. 0.3 2.1
Sept. 0.3 2.1
Oct. 0.3 2.8
Nov. 0.1. 2.9
Dec. 0.5. 3.5
2025 Jan. 0.7 3.8

Annualized PPI Aug24-Jan25. 4.5%

Feb. 0.1. 3.3
Mar. -0.2. 3.2
Apr. -0.2 2.4
May 0.4 2.7
June 0.0 2.4
July 0.9 3.3%

Annualized PPI Feb25-Jul 2.0%

So if we wanted to just look at the annualized number, we would have to say PPI is down significantly from where it was at the beginning of the year, in fact a full half of a point from January. But I'm not going to pretend that this months 0.9 PPI is meaningless. if it continues it will cascade down into CPI to some degree or another. If doesn't continue it won't mean a thing or if its a transitory bulge like you can see from Aug24-Jan25 when it the 12 month CPI rocketed from 2.1% to 3.8% it will have a lot more of an impact.

We will know more next month.

Data is here:

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm

Apologies to Sarcastro and Josh R for talking about the m/m data again when they've explained several times how meaningless it is.

[Armchair]

So, there was a rush to fill warehouses before the tariffs hit. I wonder if those warehouses ran out of the extra product that was stockpiled.

There are of course, many other potential reasons.

[Kazinski]

Looking closer at the data, I'm not sure how much of it was tariffs.

10-11% of US consumption is imports.

36% of imports are to Finished goods, that won't show up in PPI.

Another 33% are capital goods, those don't show up directly in PPI, but only as inputs to production, that takes a long lag time to show up in PPI.

Then another 15% of imports are food, that's in CPI, but a small part of PPI.

The biggest impact in PPI of course will be to US assembled autos because so many parts are imported.

Be interesting to see the PPI bump if it does show up in CPI, and whether it continues.

[Kazinski]

Malika ragged on me last week for not posting anything on the weekly jobs report, which I have never posted on before.

But I will post on this one for no particular reason, just because the previous week was so bad (which is why Malika brought it up), and this one is much better:

The latest weekly jobless claims report indicates a slight decrease, with 224,000 initial claims filed for the week ending August 9, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week's revised level. The four-week moving average also saw a small increase, reaching 221,750."

So jobless claims going down is good news, but the 4 week average saw a slight increase which isn't. Which illustrates that w/w data is noisy.

And just to put it out there this is the first and probably last time I will bring up the weekly unemployment claims data unless something really weird happens.

[hobie]

In today's shocking news story: the Obama administration sent federal agents to a rally being held by potential rival Donald Trump at a rally Trump was holding at a California museum. Mask-hating patriots at the rally were quoted as saying that they felt intimidated by the presence of troops at what they described as a peaceful political event.

[Kazinski]

Does sound a little weird before covid made masks more commonplace.

What year was it, and were they there to arrest someone, or surveillance, or was it just routine intimidation of a potential political opponent?

[Brett Bellmore]

So, was there any reason to think that people who were subject to arrest would be present? Did they in fact arrest anybody who had warrants out for their arrest?

You send police someplace where they have a legit reason for being, legitimate things to do, that's one thing. You send police someplace just to intimidate, that's another. Back in the 90's I attended a pro-gun rally at the Capitol in Lansing, Michigan.

They had police on the roof tops, that was a bit over the top for a rally that involved women pushing their babies around in strollers, but whatever. Having police near a political rally isn't inherently unreasonable.

They were watching us from the rooftops through rifle scopes, THAT was just deliberate intimidation. THAT was unreasonable.

[Riva]

Also, Gov. Newsom had a tantrum because illegals attending his little “rally” were taken into custody by federal agents. Was this a sanctuary rally? I guess ICE didn’t get the memo that democrats are above the law.

[Armchair]

You mean this event?

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/protesters-and-police-clash-outside-donald-trump-rallies-in-california/

[Martinned]

I'm sure all the deficit hawks and government waste crusaders on this blog will go apeshit at the idea of ICE producing a blinged out rap video with their tax dollars.

https://x.com/DHSgov/status/1956077756854186191

[Jazzizhep]

If they earmarked $2mil like they did on trans affirming healthcare in Guatemala, yeah I’d be pissed.

Hell, if they spent over $1000 I would be upset. ICE probably owns decent cameras. I’m am sure they employ video editors, or at least people who know how to use the software. The most expensive item should be the rights to use the music.

[Martinned]

Don't forget the gold lettering on the cars! God forbid they put the president's name on these government vehicles in any other colour.

[Jazzizhep]

I should be sky-screaming at the color of lettering?

Uhhh, no.

[Martinned]

It's your tax money, not mine.

[Martinned]

And I'm sure the gun nuts will go apeshit at the idea of the president sending in the army to arrest someone for "carrying a pistol without a license".

https://x.com/WhiteHouse/status/1955011766410416326

[Kazinski]

The President doesn't make the laws, but he shall faithfully execute them.

He don't pull that is AZ, or the 27 other states with Constitutional Carry, but DC has had home rule and that's the rule they made.

By the way NC may become the 28th state with constitutional carry, the governor vetoed it, but the state senate over road the veto, now its up to the house.

[Martinned]

The President doesn't make the laws, but he shall faithfully execute them.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

[Riva]

So just curious, are you paid per asinine comment, or just a flat fee for the day? Does the “Ha” insanity above qualify you for extra? Is there a troll union that will lobby for you?

[Michael P]

The only one going apeshit here is you, based on apparently imagined facts. In previous similar cases under Trump 47, DC or Capitol police made the arrests:

https://www.justice.gov/usao-dc/pr/three-district-men-indicted-following-firearms-arrest-during-early-morning-traffic-stop
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/crime/man-injured-shooting-suspect-arrested-with-unregistered-gun-saturday-morning-dc-police/ar-AA1GhJqU
https://thehill.com/policy/national-security/5102927-capitol-police-officer-suspended-for-allowing-man-with-concealed-gun-into-building/

[Martinned]

Tl;dr you don't care about the 2nd amendment.

[Michael P]

No, that's just you making shit up yet again because you can't back up your incredibly stupid hot takes with facts.

[Martinned]

You're the one cheerleading a president who is bragging online about arresting someone for no other crime than possessing a gun. What am I missing?

[Michael P]

Where have I led any cheers? As I said, you keep inventing things when the actual facts don't back you. You are missing a connection with basic reality.

I haven't spoken to the merits of that particular arrest because I couldn't find any details about it. Quite often, as in the earlier cases I linked to, a US arrest for unlicensed possession of a weapon reflects only a small part of what drew the attention of law enforcement and of what the risk to the law-abiding public was.

[Mr. Bumble]

Arresting a guy for assault with a sandwich?

[Martinned]

By the way, I can't quite put my finger on what these guys have in common: https://x.com/WhiteHouse/status/1955011746202030267

[ObviouslyNotSpam]

I can only see the first picture, but is that Willie Horton Jr.?

[Michael P]

You can edit the URL and replace x.com with xcancel.com to see the rest of the thread.

Apparently, Martinned thinks this guy looks too African: https://xcancel.com/WhiteHouse/status/1955011754897052144#m

Martinned just cannot figure out why law enforcement would arrest criminals. It's too damn hard for him to figure out.

Note that this highlights that Martinned was lying about "sending in the army to arrest" these people: it was a multi-agency tall force that does NOT include any part of the Army.

[Martinned]

Racists like you and the Trump administration have never cared about the difference between black people and other non-white people, except as a fig leaf to complain about the Ivy Leagues. So why start now?

[Riva]

First he’s a Nazi. Then a king. A racist nazi king? The liberal progressive crowd is not generally known for self reflection so you probably don’t realize that you making an ass out of yourself. I’m just here to help. You’ll thank me later.

[David Nieporent]

Bot not programmed to grasp that Nazis were/are racists.

[Michael P]

Bot not programmed to realize that other bot was programmed to accuse people of being racist whenever it starts losing an argument.

[Michael P]

Speaking of race and Twitter links, https://x.com/memeticsisyphus/status/1956127224769216635

(Ms. St. Felix drew attention because The New Yorker published an article she wrote accusing Sydney Sweeney of racist, banal provocation over some clothing ad. Ms. St. Felix has deleted her Twitter account since her posting history was unveiled.)

[Martinned]

Speaking of things I can't quite put my finger on, I wonder what Los Angeles, Chicago, Oakland, Baltimore and New York all have in common. It's not that they have Democratic mayors, because New York has Eric Adams. But there must be some reason why Trump singled these people out...

https://www.npr.org/2025/08/14/nx-s1-5501273/trump-dc-takeover-cities-mayors-police-national-guard

[Martinned]

More hilarious than worrying: I assume the US will impose China-level tariffs on Norway no later than October, given that apparently the Norwegian finance minister refused to promise Trump the Nobel Prize when he called to complain about it.

https://www.dn.no/politikk/fredsprisen/nobelprisen/jens-stoltenberg/kilder-til-dn-trump-tok-opp-nobelpris-i-tolltelefon-med-stoltenberg/2-1-1857308

[A Japanese Student]

Trump should definitely receive the Nobel Prize... in Literature, for his impressive™︎ performance in writing executive orders.

[John Mosby]

I am a 28-year veteran of law enforcement. The DC USAO prosecuted me for taking off-duty action in the Metro against unlawful subway dancers. This prosecution ended my LE career and makes it much harder for me to find another job. Even if you disagree with my actions, perhaps you also disagree with the 2-tier justice that throws the book at a white cop (perceived white - I am actually biracial) who was just trying to restore order in the commons - exactly what the Trump Admin is doing right now in DC.

I have a Change.org petition to urge the President to pardon me. Please take a look:

https://www.change.org/p/pardon-combat-veteran-and-law-enforcement-officer-harold-christy

Thank you.

[Martinned]

Who is the other tier in this 2-tier justice metaphor?

Anyway, yes, the US needs better data protection laws.

[John Mosby]

The other tier is the thousands of more serious offenders who went unprosecuted. I was subjected to an episode of CSI:DC to find me from Metrocard records and station video (not hard when you have a job, pay your fare, and take the train at the same time every day). The man I pushed was similarly tracked down (because he didn't feel the incident justified complaining to the po-po, especially when he had an active warrant), and never bothered to show up for trial. Meanwhile hundreds of stabbings in the Metro system are going unsolved.

[Martinned]

The plot thickens...

If you do the crime, you do the time. (Or at least you don't complain about having to do time.) That said, yes, I agree that in the US criminals are tarred and feathered Old Testament style in a way that is inappropriate for what is allegedly a civilised country. (And in a way that, fascinatingly, crosses ideological boundaries.)

[David Nieporent]

So you attacked some people without provocation on the subway, for reasons which are likely revealed by your choice of username. And we're supposed to feel sorry for you? My god, LEOs have an amazing sense of entitlement.

[Riva]

In addition to a pardon, you should get an apology from DC officials. And the Presidential Medal of Freedom.

[Brett Bellmore]

Is that actually illegal?

[Jazzizhep]

“ District Judge Vince Chhabria, an Obama appointee, granted a preliminary injunction blocking the Department of Homeland Security from using Medicaid data obtained from 20 states that filed a lawsuit to stop the data sharing.

He went on to write:

“… there is nothing "categorically unlawful" about DHS collecting data from other agencies for immigration enforcement purposes, ICE has had a policy against using Medicaid data for that reason for 12 years.”

So, the executive branch isn’t doing anything illegal, but I’m going to stop them anyway.

You guys still insist that Trump is the head of the branch of govt that poses a threat to The Constitution and democracy.

[Martinned]

Must be nice, living in a country where you have no privacy whatsoever.

[Jazzizhep]

My privacy isn’t at issue. I’m not getting free healthcare at taxpayer expense and I am not in the country illegally.

So yeah, if you want to receive my tax dollars, you lose a few things. HIPPAA is still in effect. They can’t divulge medical records, but they should provide name, residence, legal status.

[Martinned]

True, only criminals need to worry about their privacy. If you have nothing to hide, why not let the government access all your information? /s

[Jazzizhep]

They aren’t which is my point, Einstein.

No, I don’t give a flying fluck if an agency tasked with apprehending and detaining illegals uses legal means to identify and find said illegals.

It was perfectly fine until the Obama administration said it wasn’t.

[Dr. Ed 2]

Yes, the 5th Amd precludes an income tax....

Do you make your own license plates too?

[David Nieporent]

So, the executive branch isn’t doing anything illegal,

That is not what the quote says.

[Jazzizhep]

Then tell me what “not categorically unlawful” means.

It was fine from 2003 until 2013 when the Obama administration handcuffed ICE.

Again, a rule change under Obama is perfectly fine. Trump changing the rule back is the problem.

[Riva]

No they aren’t. The federal judge is.

[Kazinski]

I have been a supporter of Israel since the Munich Olympics when I first gave the subject any thought, because I have believed that Israel would be perfectly willing to live in peace with a peaceful Palestinian state, after all they have have had a peaceful relationship with Egypt and Jordon for quite a while.

But as I have been educating myself on the subject, on TikTok, I recently became aware, and don't mock me for just learning this, that Israel started WWI and WW2:

“All of the conspiracy theories coming out and a lot of evidence behind them — that Israel has been behind World War I, World War II, September 11, October 7 — they allowed all of this stuff to happen. Is this crazy? Like, I had a feeling — I was like, ‘Are they behind every World War?’ Yes. Behind September 11? Absolutely,”

https://nypost.com/2025/08/07/lifestyle/sephora-urged-to-drop-cosmetic-line-after-founders-tiktok-rant/

My grandfather was gassed in WW1, so its personal to me.

I have not found any evidence so far about whether Israel started the Spanish American, Korean, and Vietnamese wars, but I'm still researching it.

[Dr. Ed 2]

You do know that the Jews started King Phillips War, don't you?

[Dr. Ed 2]

Heck, why not claim that King Phillip himself was a Jew?

Once all basis in fact is gone, it is amazing what one can conclude...

[Jazzizhep]

I think he was being sarcastic. Kaz said he did his research on TikTok. The rant is from the beauty influencer whose product is sold by Sephora.

[Dr. Ed 2]

Fair enough -- scary thing is that I have heard the same thing from people who were serious...

[Riva]

And it seems that manufacturing intelligence to attack political enemies is a “team sport,” at least according to James Clapper. Kinda like the inevitable reflexively idiotic trolling that tries to deny that the Russian collusion fraud directed by Obama has been irrefutably exposed. It is only one of the, if not the, greatest political scandal in US history, so nothing to see here of course.

https://www.odni.gov/index.php/newsroom/press-releases/press-releases-2025/4098-pr-22-25

[Keldonric]

Question: In a hypothetical scenario where every delegated power was removed from the federal government’s jurisdiction, what—if anything—would it still have the constitutional authority to do?

I’m interested in answers grounded in constitutional text, historical practice, or case law, but broader philosophical perspectives are welcome too.

[Michael P]

What do you mean by "every delegated power"? You seem to be asking us to use the Constitution's text to explain what powers the US federal government would have in the absence of the federal constitution.

[Brett Bellmore]

Well, I assume that if you removed the N&P power as part of this purge, you'd just dissolve the government, there wouldn't be anything left.

But I'm not a big fan of the idea that the federal government has undelegated powers.

Does this question relate to the recent Richard Primus book on enumeration and federal power, which advances the thesis that the federal government DOES have powers in excess of those delegated?

It is an interesting thought experiment: If you claim the federal government has unenumerated powers, presumably they'd be whatever was left over after you removed all the enumerated ones. But if you removed all the enumerated powers, there wouldn't be any government left to HAVE unenumerated powers; No taxation, no spending, no law making...

[Jazzizhep]

Watched Lioness over the last few days. I recommend it. And like other Taylor Sheridan creations, he gives conservatives a fair voice.

One of my favorite storylines was when a U.S. congresswoman was abducted by a cartel. The agencies wanted a big show in Mexico to send a message of what will happen to those who screw with the U.S.

In a meeting discussing the impact of raiding Mexico, they are disappointed at what has transpired. Public awareness of the kidnapping and rescue was at 38%. They believe the media has intentionally suppressed the story because they didn’t want to harm the administration in an election year.

This was written and filmed long before Biden’s debate. Life imitating art.

[Dr. Ed 2]

As to the DoJ employee arrested and fired for throwing a Subway sandwich at the cops, what precludes him claiming he was drunk and going through the Federal Govt's EA program?

I've never been a Federal employee, but those who are tell me that they could "show up to work drunk" and not get fired. And he was off duty...

And on a serious basis, I wonder if he was, but that is a different issue.

[Michael P]

I suspect nothing precludes him from claiming that, but neither having an addiction nor participating in an employee assistance program would actually protect him from being fired for assaulting a police officer.

[Dr. Ed 2]

Alcoholic Blackout -- it is real, I've dealt with a lot of kids in college who genuinely had no memory of what they said and did.

[Michael P]

So what?

For once, but ideally consistently, please try to think through what you are trying to say rather than just posting a quarter-baked thought that might have some tangential relationship to the topic at hand.

[Dr. Ed 2]

Gerrymandering is one thing, but when Gavin Newsome comes out and says he wishes to redistrict to eliminate all Republican seats, at what point does that violate the 15th Amendment?

[Michael P]

Never. And under Rucho v. Common Cause (2019), federal courts would not have much jurisdiction to review it for other reasons either. It would just be yet another example of leftist states being poorly governed hellholes.

[Martinned]

Have you guys considered democracy as a form of government?

[Michael P]

Have you considered that you act and sound an awful lot like Dr. Ed 2?

For once, but ideally consistently, please try to think through what you are trying to say rather than just posting a quarter-baked thought that might have some tangential relationship to the topic at hand.

[Dr. Ed 2]

CONGRESS wrote the drug schedule, e.g. making Marijuana a Schedule I drug.

How can Trump reclassify it as Schedule III???

Not ask Congress to do so, but to do it himself???

[Jazzizhep]

Well, he could come out fervently in favor of stricter penalties for marijuana. Then the Dems would reflexively oppose him and demand federal legalization.

[A Japanese Student]

Reading 21 U.S.C. §812(c) carefully gives the answer. Note the word "initial".

[Mr. Bumble]

...and in the case of fudged crime stats in DC:
"The District of Columbia has quietly settled a lawsuit from a sergeant who accused Metropolitan Police Department leaders of misclassifying offenses to deflate the district's crime statistics, court records obtained by the Washington Free Beacon show. Police brass repeatedly told officers to downgrade theft cases, knife attacks, and violent assaults to lesser offenses, according to internal MPD emails, depositions, and phone call transcripts the Free Beacon reviewed."
https://freebeacon.com/crime/a-dc-police-sergeant-exposed-her-superiors-for-misclassifying-crimes-to-make-stats-look-low-the-city-just-quietly-settled-her-lawsuit/

[Martinned]

I'm old enough to remember when people would regularly blog on VC about the importance of academic freedom. I wonder what they would make of this gem out of Alabama: https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.alnd.192804/gov.uscourts.alnd.192804.79.0.pdf

Notwithstanding what other circuits have said, the court reads our Circuit’s precedent as strongly suggesting that the Professors’ in-class instruction constitutes government speech.
(...)
After review, the court concludes (in a matter that would be one of first impression if decided by our Circuit) that the Professors were not speaking as private citizens while teaching in their respective classrooms. But, as will be seen, even putting aside this conclusion, Plaintiffs’ claims still fail. First, even if Plaintiffs’ in-class teaching is not government speech, they still lose at step two of the Pickering/Connick balancing test. And second, as discussed later in this opinion, notwithstanding Garcetti, the Professors cannot steer around this circuit’s Bishop decision. The court addresses those points below.

This paragraph has a pretty eye-watering footnote too:

Keyishian discussed the dangers of a pall of orthodoxy being cast on universities by way of loyalty oath requirements. 385 U.S. at 603. A broad expansion of professor rights in the classroom would risk running headlong into a different type of pall of orthodoxy wherein professors require (or indoctrinate) their students to assent to their views. Granting professors a special exception from the government-speech rule would diminish a university’s (and, here, the Board’s) ability to ensure courses serve the educational purpose for which the public pays.