The Volokh Conspiracy
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Is the Clean Water Act Enforced Less Stringently in Battleground States?
A new study suggests political considerations may influence the enforcement of federal environmental law.
There are many reasons why administrative regulation may be preferable to nuisance law for dealing with environmental pollution. Among other things, regulations may provide clearer standards of what sorts of conduct is or is not permitted and may provide clearer incentives for firms to reduce polluting behavior. One potential downside, however, is that administrative regulation may be more subject to political influence.
If regulatory agencies are responsible to elected officials, we might expect this to affect their enforcement efforts. In particular, if we assume that polluting firms are a politically important constituency, we might expect enforcement efforts to be less stringent in closely contested (i.e. "battleground") jurisdictions. A new paper, "The Selective Enforcement of Government Regulations: Battleground States, State Regulators, and the Environmental Protection Agency" by Huseyin Gulen and Brett W. Myers, recently published in the Journal of Law & Economics, suggests just such an effect.
Here is the abstract:
The Electoral College creates incentives for politicians and regulators to direct policy favors toward battleground or swing states. We examine whether this affects regulatory enforcement and find that facilities in battleground states are less likely to be found in violation of the Clean Water Act, partially because the permit limits for facilities in these states are less restrictive. Identification is obtained by analyzing violation rates of similar facilities located along the border between battleground and nonbattleground states.
And here is from the paper's conclusion:
The literature on the impact of government regulation has largely focused on whether it benefits or harms social welfare. We examine an equally important and related question: is regulation uniformly enforced? In our study, we find that government actors selectively enforce economically important government regulations, and this selective enforcement is widespread, is economically meaningful, and benefits politically important states. Our findings suggest that electoral politics provides incentives to both politicians and regulators to selectively enforce government regulations. To be specific, and consistent with differing levels of enforcement standards, we find that facilities located in battleground states experience lower violation rates of the CWA than facilities in nonbattleground states. This is at least partially explained by facilities in battleground states being issued more lenient NPDES permits. We achieve identification and control for unobserved heterogeneity by focusing the analysis on similar facilities located along the border of battleground and nonbattleground states. We argue that the battleground status of a facility's state is likely to represent an exogenous source of political importance to facility operators. Our evidence is consistent with the idea that government regulators—in our case, the EPA and state-level regulators—do not uniformly enforce economically important regulations.
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If this is a function of the electoral college, why would state-level regulators be affected?
I had the same reaction - there may be a political impact on the degree of regulatory enforcement but despite the authors' claims, this study did not show that the electoral college had any effect in either direction.
The argument isn't that the Electoral College has a direct effect, it's that the fact that the Electoral College assigns electors by state motivates federal regulators to behave differently by state.
But 'battleground states' are typically also close states for Senate elections, and would be absent the EC. I don't think eliminating the EC would remove the politics. Maybe move it around a bit...
in many states NPDES enforcement is delegated to the state authority. I haven't read the study and don't know if these states themselves may have been distinguished. A possible confounder although it may not undercut the general premise.
In fact, I think the general principle in any place where there has come to be a healthy skepticism about red tape since we aren't waking up to footage of the cuyahoga burning every morning, is a ratchet effect. discretion is used to slowly ramp enforcement (even in contravention of explicit statutory text). Then the noose is slowly tightened. This is especially true of administrative controls over the larger part of the people where the public perception is direct.
NPDES has a similar phenomenon indirectly understood. Indeed the people might not be miffed that purported "polluters" are reigned in and have a dim awareness that over or selective enforcement has a negative impact on the business climate and economy of their state. But there is an awareness on the part of the executive (elected at the same level as senators and presidential electors generally, excepting those states that might award electoral votes by congressional districvt) that a bad business climate is bad for their reelection prospects.
Only in states like MAssachusetts where those electoral conclusions are foregone do they do stuff like this: https://riverdale.com/business-owner-wins-judgment-epa-overzealous-prosecution/
I've bought wire mesh from this company. Great local manufacturer, but massachusetts ain't a swing state and could care less. And a later suit for full recovery of his costs was unsuccessful because, even thought exculpatory evidence had been withheld, he couldn't prove motive required for claim of malicious prosecution (knott's company recovered legal fees at the earlier stages but his personal costs–he was threatened personally, inter alia, with 4 years in jail–in litigating were denied to be recompensed under the hyde amendmenrt because he has a personal worth of $2 million).
Where did this suggest state-level regulators are affected? I think you misread it.
The last sentence: "Our evidence is consistent with the idea that government regulators—in our case, the EPA and state-level regulators—do not uniformly enforce economically important regulations."
They have to mean regulators working for state environmental agencies, right?
I haven't read the paper, but I can imagine is the logic that the switch of this important constituency can flip the whole state. So even at the state level regulators don't want to be hard or they alienate those voters and push it to the other party. If the federal elections were national popular votes those votes probably have no effect. But because the EC is a winner take all for the state these voters have enough power to switch the outcome of the election in the state and maybe election overall.
What's that old adage about headlines phrased as a question? The answer is always "no"?
Betteridge's Law. This may, however, be an exception.
Wait, "political considerations may influence the enforcement of federal law"? This is my shocked face.
Is this another episode of "Right-Wing Publication Disparages Regulation and Government"?
Which industry group sponsored this episode?
I’m not sure this is a big problem, but I do have a proposal for another study that would confirm or refute the hypothesis.
Turn a half dozen purple states like AZ, GA, PA, etc deep red, and turn another 4 or 5 Blue states like NH, VA, MN purple, and the red on the study in about 4 years.
We’ve already had some realignments in the past 20-30 years where deep blue WV went deep red, and deep purple states like Ohio, FL, and Co went solid red or blue. Looking at regulation in those states as they shifted would be interesting .
This presumes that enforcement is not popular, and that presumes facts not in evidence.
At least SOME people FAVOR enforcement, and a good study would be New Hampshire, a state which values individual rights and economic rights, but also values outdoor activities and which is heavily dependent on private wells for drinking water.
Take the Saco River -- enforcement on North Conway's Sewerage Treatment Plant would be popular. Other things might not.
A blanket unpopular isn't valid.
It presumes that the economic effects of enforcement are not popular.
Whether this is the case probably varies between location and regulation.
"It presumes that the economic effects of enforcement are not popular."
That too -- take the Saco River -- towns such as Old Orchard Beach use it for their drinking water, and *can* because North Conway had to install its sewerage treatment plant. Likewise there is a thriving business of running rafts down the river. So some get helped and some get hurt -- I think the facts of a specific situation would matter more than a blanket belief either way.
But my point was that there is a constituency for clean water qua clean water, independent of economic benefit.
It doesn't presume that enforcement isn't popular. I presumes, or assumes, that 1) Regulators fear it might be and/or 2) Even if generally popular the effects of that positive on voters is minimal while the negative effects on those that don't like it is great(er) - so enforcement even if broadly popular would hurt reelection chances.
Not sure on the merits, but love that somebody thought to study this. Would not have occurred to me.
The Electoral College creates incentives for politicians and regulators to direct policy favors toward battleground or swing states.
That takes as self-evident that enforcement of CWA regulations is unwanted. Seems like a big assumption. Might apply to a certain constituency, however.
“This presumes that enforcement is not popular, and that presumes facts not in evidence.”
“Whether this [popularity] is the case probably varies between location and regulation.”
“That takes as self-evident that enforcement of CWA regulations is unwanted. Seems like a big assumption. Might apply to a certain constituency, however.”
I agree with all 3 of you. Seems a Rube Goldberg type machine of endless variables, temporary political football, unknown actors even, so way too tenuous to make a concerted effort either way. I like regression analysis as much as the next guy (if that’s what they did) and look forward to reading the study.
brother,
free money during covid was popular (maybe less so when allocated to corporate interests, but small businesses and individuals) as clean water might be said to be populaer, but biden’s reelection is now hampered by the associated inflation.
the public does not have to disfavor enforcement for their to be incentives to go lightly, especially in states with close electoral divide.
DA, perhaps.
I'm still to get around to the paper (thanks Martinned), but I'm still unsure how levels of enforcement affect individual votes.
For people who want to read this paper but don't have access to the Journal of Law & Economics, the SSRN version is here: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2826741
It looks like they're finding effects in the order of 5%-10%, which seems quite material to me. (Not all effects that are statistically significant are also large enough to be noteworthy for policy purposes.)
Even if there are robust statistical correlations between the electoral college status and some measure of regulatory activity, it would seem very difficult to assess causality. The small number of swing states are not distributed randomly geographically, by income, by likelihood of transitions in legislative or gubernatorial party leadership, or by a host of other factors that might plausibly affect regulatory actions entirely independent of the of the mechanisms for presidential elections. The suggestion by one poster that a followup study might look at the how things change as the states become more or less competitive suffers the same problem, since many other factors in the state will be changing at the same time.
We likely wouldn't put much credence in a health study that purported to show differences between two populations but which didn't control for significant age or income differences between them. I don't see how that kind of control is feasible here, but that doesn't mean that the problem can be ignored. So if you want to show electoral politics is affecting regulatory action, then instead of some kind of statistical analysis, I think a researcher needs to show specific examples where electoral politics was explicitly implicated in action (or inaction).
"political considerations may influence the enforcement of federal [law]"
Say it ain't so!
I almost would have expected the opposite - clean water is popular, so enforce it in the battlegrounds, but if you're lax in the other states you can still get campaign donations from the big companies.