The Volokh Conspiracy
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A Qualified Defense of Qualified Conformism
Some thoughts occasioned by economist Bryan Caplan's new book "You Will Not Stampede Me: Essays on Non-Conformism."
Given my background and views, I should be highly sympathetic to the positions laid out in economist Bryan Caplan's new book You Will Not Stampede Me: Essays on Non-Conformism (he summarizes the main themes of the book here). I'm a fan of Bryan's previous books on voter ignorance, immigration, and education (despite a few reservations about the latter). In addition, I'm a libertarian (a somewhat less radical one than Bryan, but more so than about 95% of Americans), an atheist (also like Bryan), author of a book on why majority views on political issues are often wrong because of systematic ignorance and bias, and an advocate of many unpopular views. People who know me well will tell you that I'm more likely than the average person to violate various social norms.
If anyone is a receptive audience for Bryan's new book, it would be someone like me! And I do indeed agree with a lot of it. For example, he gives excellent explanations of why many commonly held views are likely to be wrong. Bryan also effectively explains how you can often get away with non-conformism while suffering few or no social or economic penalties. On many issues, most conformists are unwilling to devote great time and effort to enforcing conformity! Indeed, doing so might get them branded as annoying fanatics, which is itself a kind of non-conformism that true conformists generally try to avoid.
For example, polls show that we atheists are an unpopular group. But, as Bryan explains, in most middle to upper-middle-class circles in the modern US, there are few or no costs to being an open atheist. That is similar to my own experience, as well. Though admittedly things would be different if I were running for political office, and possibly if I lived in a highly socially conservative Bible Belt area.
There are many other good points in Bryan's book, as well. But I think he and some other advocates of non-conformism may underrate some key arguments for - limited, but still substantial - conformity.
One is that conformism often makes good sense on questions you don't care much about. For example, I'm skeptical that moving towards gender-neutral language is a good idea, or that it does much to reduce sexism. But I don't actually care much about the terminology in question, and therefore usually go along with majority intellectual trends on these matters. I figure it's better to conform and thereby avoid unnecessarily alienating people, than to make a stand on a hill I don't care much about. Situations like this come up often. Bryan implicitly recognizes this when he recommends conformity in a few situations where the cost of non-conformity is high, and the benefit low. But he doesn't generalize the point - at least not clearly.
A more substantial problem is the possibility that some widely held norms and traditions might embody valuable wisdom, even if modern non-conformists don't understand why. This, of course, is the longstanding "Burkean conservative" argument for adhering to tradition.
The standard critique of Burkean conservatism is that history shows many longstanding, widely accepted traditions were horrifically wrong: slavery, serfdom, the subordination of women, persecution of religious dissenters, and more. This litany undermines the case for unthinking adherence to tradition, as a general rule. But there might be some categories of norms and traditions that deserve more deference than others. Back in 2008, I argued that Burkean conservatism is a poor rule when it comes to coercively imposed norms, including many of the familiar examples of awful traditions, such as slavery. The same can be said for many that are the result of the imposition of majority public opinion in a democracy. The work of many scholars -including both Caplan and myself - shows that majority opinion on political issues is often heavily influenced by ignorance and bias, and that voters have little incentive to seek the truth and correct wrong opinions.
That doesn't prove democracy is worse than dictatorship or oligarchy. But it does mean we should give little credence to the idea that political views are likely to be right merely because they are supported by a majority of voters and embraced by candidates who win elections.
On the other hand, however, social norms that emerge from market processes or civil society are more likely to be well-founded. In such situations, people "vote with their feet" and thereby have more incentive to get things right. That's no guarantee of infallibility. Far from it! But it does suggest a stronger case for deferring to rules and social norms that emerged in this way. If your workplace, your church, or your social circle has certain norms of behavior and civility, there's at least a substantial likelihood they make good sense, even if you may not understand why. Otherwise, these institutions would lose members, workers, and customers to rivals with better rules and traditions.
That's far from a guarantee of infallibility. But it does justify giving at least some substantial deference to norms in these situations. That's especially the case if you're new to the institution and have little knowledge of how it works, and what purposes its rules and norms might serve. The relevant comparison is not between the norm and perfection, but between the quality of the decision-making process that led to the norm, and the quality of your own judgment on the issue in question.
Finally, sometimes it makes sense to conform to the views of experts - at least in cases where there is a relatively broad consensus among the relevant experts, and they have relatively good incentives to seek the truth. I summarized the justification - and limits - of this kind of deference here, and more fully in a book chapter on "Trust and Political Ignorance."
Experts are far from infallible, and we should keep in mind biases and poor incentives that make them unreliable in some situations (as well as the tendency of many of them to opine on issues that are actually beyond their expertise). But we should also remember there are important issues on which experts' views are more likely to be reliable than those of laypeople. In those situations, a degree of conformist deference makes sense.
Even in situations where it makes sense to defer to tradition, norms, or experts, such deference should not be absolute. The case for deference could be outweighed by a large amount of contrary evidence, or moral considerations. But the burden of justification for going against "the herd" in such cases is higher than in areas where there is little reason to think that herd has any special wisdom or insight.
Some of these points are likely compatible with Bryan Caplan's views, laid out in his book. But he doesn't systematically incorporate them as limitations on his general (and often justified!) opposition to conformism.
They are also worth keeping in mind if you are the kind of person who views norms and traditions with suspicion. I am like that myself. Whereas the average person may tend towards excessive conformism, intellectuals - especially those who hold many unpopular views - may have the opposite bias. Such people are likely overrepresented among academics, political commentators, and possibly even readers of this blog.
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"the subordination of women"
Speaking of intellectual conformism, what evidence is there that the average dirt poor male serf in the olden days was significantly better off to a 'horrific' degree than the average dirt poor female serf? Specifically in ways that stem primarily from societal oppression rather than biology ie childbirth?
That...seems an odd obsession. Specifically eliminating from consideration what's likely a primary driver of horrific conditions, seems unlikely to result in reasoned intellectual debate on the topic of determining the relative horrificacy of lowest-tier olden days inhabitants' existence.
A comparison might be trying to discuss causes of the Civil War, while ruling out any mention of chattel slavery. Of course, that hasn't proven a barrier to some...
The implicit and sometimes explicit assumption in most ‘women were significantly oppressed more than men on average in history’ hypothesis is that the differential treatment stemmed primarily from evil men who got together one day and decided to treat women differently and otherwise they would being monarchs, soldiers, explorers and what have you in equal proportions to men if not for this jealousy and oppression. A more sensible hypothesis is that the differential experiences of men and women. The part that is left once you dispose of the lie that men on average were kicking it back sipping figurative martinis in comparison to women overall; stems primarily from biology. Theres a reason why something approximating traditional sex roles are near if not universal throughout all of earth and all of history and women’s ‘liberation’ conveniently began to happen once the effects of the industrial revolution began to be felt. Women and men were doing their respective things because thats what they had to do. But this is not as popular since the former theory allows blame for women’s supposed greater plight as they sighed while men marched off to be slaughtered in wars, to be assigned to the wicked patriarchy.
'A more sensible hypothesis is that the differential experiences of men and women.'
Which is odd, since your premise seems to be about completely dismissing the historical experiences of women.
'as they sighed while men marched off to be slaughtered in wars,'
For example, womens' experiences in wars.
You know, despite wrestling with your own straw arguments, you haven't actually refuted the idea that ‘women were significantly oppressed more than men on average in history,’ just tried to justify it. If dirt poor serf men were property, dirt poor serf women were the property of property, and a passing lord could rape you if he happened to feel like it, and you had to bear all those babies like it or not, while doing pretty much the same back-breaking labour our in the fields as the dirt poor serf men.
But leaving those points aside, if dirt poor serfs are your example of men and women having equal rights - because dirt poor serfs had absolutely no rights at all - then you're proving way too much.
I don't need to disprove the idea that women were significantly more oppressed than men throughout history any more than I need to disprove that rocks sing when people aren't around. Its up to its proponents to show significant evidence for it. Thats how theories work.
The fact that you bring myths like Droit du seigneur and can't refute any of my points doesn't bode well for your pet theory.
If you’re going to prove women weren’t significantly more oppressed throughout history, you have to present some proof, otherwise you’re not taking your premise seriously, and if you don’t, why should anyone else? If you’re disproving the same thing you have to address the evidence that purports to prove it, otherwise you’re being lazy and, again, unserious.
(I never mentioned droit de seigneur, I just mentioned powerful men sexually exploiting women in lower social orders; if you think that’s mythical, not sure what to tell you.)
But the average is a nobody. Put Bezos in a slum and the average income skyrockets. Mathematicians almost never take your approach. FIrst of all it is meaningless when extrapolated to real life. Take 5-10 aspects of life and check a thousand people on it and the most rare of all will be the person who hits average on all 5-10. This is a mathematical certainty.
And of course Amos doesn't see that conformisn is emotional and social way before it is intellectual -- else his labeling of black, conservative, religious, even American makes no sense.
But, as Bryan explains, in most middle to upper-middle-class circles in the modern US, there are few or no costs to being an open atheist.
I doubt many people, or at least those who might read the book, need Caplan to explain this to them.
we should give little credence to the idea that political views are likely to be right merely because they are supported by a majority of voters and embraced by candidates who win elections.
Or this.
we should give little credence to the idea that political views are likely to be right merely because they are supported by a majority of voters and embraced by candidates who win elections.
Or this.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Maybe he thought people need reminding since a large portion including supposedly erudite mainstream institutions use far right as a pejorative and relentlessly advocate majoritarianism as the be all end all of politics...until they cease benefiting from it then its off the judges to override the People's will.
Well, "far righjt" is a pejorative and correctly so, just like "far left". And just because something isn't a majority view likewise doesn't make it right (or good).
Well, it is first illogical and not true to the facts
LOGIC you can't say that you know nothing unless you know everything. as with all aspects of growing up you start somewhere but you have commonalities. You can say your religious view are dominated by your culture but across those differences a Creator/God is affirmed.Yet this is ignored. Same with food music, literature, architecture...we all start where we are but your love of your music and my love of my music is still a love of music unqualified.
DATA Why would anybody assume this applies to everybody EXCEPT THE AUTHOR !!! WHY. Something is not automatically wrong because a lot of people like it either OR : then the author would not be hoping to convince a lot of people.
I just hate these highschool forays into 'being portnetous" Tell me, does he anywhere refer to Dalrymple's popular book making the logical and data-laden case that the opposite MUST be better
In Praise of Prejudice: The Necessity of Preconceived Ideas
by Theodore Dalrymple
"Today, the word prejudice has come to seem synonymous with bigotry; therefore the only way a person can establish freedom from bigotry is by claiming to have wiped his mind free from prejudice. English psychiatrist and writer Theodore Dalrymple shows that freeing the mind from prejudice is not only impossible, but entails intellectual, moral and emotional dishonesty. The attempt to eradicate prejudice has several dire consequences for the individual and society as a whole."
I tell my students what Socrates said :If you would be wise about the things that really matter you must be content to be ignorant about most other things.
What a great post!
Prof Somin seems like the kind of academic one would wish to have a three hour dinner with.
Maybe someday he can find an academic blog with which he could associate.
Not me. He didn't always strike me this way but now I see him as a silly man hiding his own views on everything from politics to God under a hypocritical academic mantle.
Can someone get this man an Edit button! Or an editor.
The Volokh Conspiracy eschews editors. And legitimate editing. And, often, standard English.
No normal person uses 'eschews' - I am a teacher and have NEVER heard a student , good or bad, use it.
Is the book any good? Is it interesting? Boring?
Read
In Praise of Prejudice: The Necessity of Preconceived Ideas
by Theodore Dalrymple
ben out for 17 years and the other book's fallacious thinking is its target.
I think we can stipulate that majority opinion on many things will often be wrong. Is there a definable class (the "wise" is not a definable class) that is more likely to be right? Subject matter experts are, of course, more likely to be right about matters within their expertise, but that is not the point.
Neither, ultimately, is it the point of majority rule that the majority is likely to be right about good policy. The one essential feature of a governing system is that it be broadly acceptable to the governed, so they don't bring out torches and pitchforks and slaughter the governing classes in their beds. Majoritarian democracy (leavened with some protection for the losers) is the only system that is likely to keep the torches unlit and the pitchforks in the shed.
Sorry, Ilya, a very stupid post that shows your ignorance of your topic
You say : "The standard critique of Burkean conservatism is that history shows many longstanding, widely accepted traditions were horrifically wrong: slavery, serfdom, the subordination of women, persecution of religious dissenters, and more."
On each of these the liberals of Burke's time were terrible, certainly by your standards and yet the Father of Conservative was on the right side of history on every one
HE opposed slavery, fought against Hastings' treatment of people in India, championed rights of Catholics. You are just godawful in the dark. ANd logically, it is stupid to say that if things are not perfect the defenders of status quo must want those bad features. Even Lincoln saw the stupidity of that at age 28 in his Lyceum address. Prudence, Ilya...you applaud a John Brown and are ignorant that his raid INCREASED slavery's defenders.
And you are , excuse me, another stupid atheist. Franklin told Paine, If folks are this bad with religion imagine them without. I saw recently an atheist's hideous apologia for nuking women and children in a pre-emptive strike.
because of Sam Harris's religious views he is willing to nuke millions of women and children
""What will we do if an Islamist regime, which grows dewy-eyed at the mere mention of paradise, ever acquires long-range nuclear weaponry? If history is any guide, we will not be sure about where the offending warheads are or what their state of readiness is, and so we will be unable to rely on targeted, conventional weapons to destroy them. In such a situation, the only thing likely to ensure our survival may be a nuclear first strike of our own. Needless to say, this would be an unthinkable crime—as it would kill tens of millions of innocent civilians in a single day—but it may be the only course of action available to us, given what Islamists believe. How would such an unconscionable act of self-defense be perceived by the rest of the Muslim world? It would likely be seen as the first incursion of a genocidal crusade. The horrible irony here is that seeing could make it so: this very perception could plunge us into a state of hot war with any Muslim state that had the capacity to pose a nuclear threat of its own. All of this is perfectly insane, of course: I have just described a plausible scenario in which much of the world’s population could be annihilated on account of religious ideas that belong on the same shelf with Batman, the philosopher’s stone, and unicorns.""
Mark well what the goddam demon says :the only thing likely to ensure our survival may be a nuclear first strike of our own. Needless to say, this would be an unthinkable crime—as it would kill tens of millions of innocent civilians in a single day—but it may be the only course of action"
HItler was never worse.