The Volokh Conspiracy
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Why the Supreme Court's Decision in NFIB v. OSHA May Be Even Worse News for Climate Regulation than You Thought
Insofar as the Court was concerned about pretext, it may be more difficult for the EPA to reduce greenhouse gases using regulatory authority to control emissions.
The Supreme Court's decision rejecting the Occupational Safety and Health Administration's emergency vax-or-test mandate showed that a majority of the Supreme Court is skeptical of broad, unprecedented assertions of agency authority. Although the Court could have chosen to invalidate the OSHA rule on more narrow statutory grounds, the brief per curiam swept more broadly. The Court did not fully eviscerate OSHA's ability to reduce the workplace risks of Covid-19 (loud claims to the contrary notwithstanding), but it did adopt a relatively narrow view of an agency's delegated authority, curtailing OSHA's ability to address Covid-19 on the margin, and suggesting broader shifts within administrative law may be on the way.
Insofar as the Court's decision rested on a "major questions" rationale -- the idea that broad agency authority must be expressly authorized by Congress -- it would seem to spell bad news for the EPA in the greenhouse gas regulation case to be heard next month. If a majority of the Court concluded that OSHA could not impose a vax-or-test requirement on all large employers as an emergency occupational health standard, it is unlikely to conclude that the EPA's authority to control emissions from power plants allows it to mandate broader changes within energy systems. Indeed, the major questions doctrine (as applied by the current Court) seems tailor made for West Virginia v. EPA. But NFIB v. OSHA may have even broader consequences for future regulatory efforts to control greenhouse gases.
Both the oral argument and per curiam opinion in NFIB v. OSHA suggested that at least some justices (and the Chief Justice in particular) were concerned that the Biden Administration was using OSHA"s authority over workplace safety as a means of pursuing the broader (and worthwhile) public health goal of increasing Covid-19 vaccinations. In effect, as Michael Dorf hypothesized, the Court was concerned about "pretext." As Dorf put it "the OSHA ruling reflects a judgment by the majority of the Court that President Biden and his administration were using their power under [the OSH Act] pretextually." Lacking any clear statutory authority to impose a nationwide Covid-19 vaccination requirement, the Biden Administration sought to use the OSHA rule as part of (what the President described as) "a new plan to require more Americans to be vaccinated."
Concern for pretext is common in administrative law, but the rule against is rarely enforced with much vigor. Provided that an agency can offer a reasoned explanation of its actions and justify the choices it made in terms aligned with its statutory authority, that is usually good enough to survive judicial review. In the census case, however, Chief Roberts suggested courts should look more closely when there is reason to suspect an agency's explanation is "contrived." What judicial review requires, Roberts explained, is that agencies provide "genuine justifications for important decisions," and not "distractions" or subterfuge. While the gap between the agency's action and apparent intent was not nearly as great here as in the census litigation, the Court was clearly concerned that the OSHA ETS was not driven by a concern with occupational safety, as such, but a broader imperative to increase vaccination. Contra Dorf, the "mismatch" between the OSHA rule and the risk posed by Covid-19 in the workplace -- which was based upon the number of people on a company's payroll, and not any relevant attributes of governed workplaces -- reinforced that conclusion.
Whereas pretext analysis is often used to ferret truly nefarious motives, such as racial or religious discrimination, here it reinforces the Court's apparent concern that agencies only exercise that authority they have been delegated. (And while some might think the Court used such analysis in the Census case due to concerns about invidious discrimination, that is not the rationale the Chief Justice gave.)
OSHA's authority concerns occupational health and safety, the Court noted repeatedly, and not public health more broadly. Thus insofar as the Court had reason to suspect the regulation was not adopted with a focus on occupational health and safety, that was more reason to question whether the agency was exercising power Congress had actually authorized. (Again, one can see the Chief raising such concerns at oral argument.)
What does this have to do with climate change regulation? If the message of NFIB v. OSHA is that courts should be sure that agencies are exercising the powers given by Congress for the purposes Congress gave them, then not only is the Court likely to conclude that the EPA's authority to use section 111 to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the power sector is limited. It is also likely to be suspicious of EPA efforts to repurpose other pre-existing authorities to regulate air pollution to achieve GHG reductions.
Absent new legislation, the most direct way the EPA has to reduce GHG emissions is to tighten existing regulations on coal plants and other substantial sources of GHG emissions. Tightening the national ambient air quality standard for particulate matter, for example, would not only reduce soot and fine particles in the air. It would also put the squeeze on large sources of GHGs, reducing those emissions as a co-benefit. The problem for EPA would be if courts see such efforts as work-arounds, as they did with the OSHA ETS.
I do not see these concerns as necessary fatal to further EPA climate efforts, but it is another obstacle with which the agency will have to contend (as if there were not enough already). All the more reason it would be a good thing for Congress to enact a carbon tax.
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"May Be Even Worse News for Climate Regulation than You Thought"
I assume you meant better not worse.
Again, lawyer dipshits. Reading the plain, second grade English of Article I Section 1. It gives all lawmaking powers to the Congress. All executive regulations not voted on by Congress are void. Make the scumbags read the 10000 pages of the Federal Register into the record, then make the Congress vote on each provision, or it is void
I’ve got to agree. Agency and department regulations should be void.
They could ask unanimous consent to skip the reading and then vote on everything as a unit. But at least that would make it legitimate according to our constitutional structure.
The general problem with unanimous consent, for pretty much any vote, is that it either isn't really unanimous, they're just ignoring the holdouts, or, often, they achieved unanimity by violating the quorum clause.
It's easy to make a vote unanimous if you arrange for only people in favor of it to be present.
Nobody can or does make any such arrangement.
They usually fail to make such arrangements. But they can, and they do try. https://www.axios.com/ted-cruz-voting-rights-senate-83795ac8-ff52-4d39-aef1-74edb286abbe.html
Really?
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/27/us/politics/thomas-massie-coronavirus.html
Says somebody who has never watched CSPAN. I broke my leg back in the late 90's, and was bed ridden for a month as a result, (It was a REALLY bad break.) and spent a lot of time watching CSPAN. It was highly educational as to how Congress actually operates, really cleared away all that nonsense they teach in Civics class.
The institution totally lacks a quorum most of the time it's in session, and voice votes aren't actual votes, because "Allinfavorsayayeallopposedsaynaytheayeshaveit" is one word.
By the geological record, climate had changed long before there were enough humans with the hubris to believe they could change or regulate it.
Human influence on the climate is grossly exaggerated both on the influence and ability to control.
An overwhelming majority of climate scientists would respond by telling you that you're an idiot.
What other science would you like to ignorantly claim isn't true?
I got no problem with the actual science, what I got a problem with is why there is such an industry built on lying about the science.
For instance every story about wildfires in the west says they are getting worse because of climate change. They aren't getting worse in the long term. And the IPCC says there is no evidence to conclude climate change is having any effect on wildfires.
Every story I read about hurricanes, typhoons and tornadoes say they are getting worse because of climate change too. But again the IPCC says there is no evidence to make that conclusion.
Same with drought, same with flooding, etc.
Yet when people truthfully point out that information on Facebook or Twitter then they are tagged with spreading misinformation.
If the case is so compelling why the need to incessantly lie about it?
Are we talking about the same IPCC?
https://www.ipcc.ch/2021/08/09/ar6-wg1-20210809-pr/
Might want to check what they specifically say about droughts, flooding, monsoons, etc., because your claims don't match up with theirs.
You aren't reading the summaries are you?
That's a fools game, those are rewritten to take all the science out by bureaucrats.
So what does your link "specifically" say about fires?
0 matches on 'fire'
0 matches on tropical storms, hurricanes, typhoons, tropical storms
1 match on droughts which is just mush, not science:
"Climate change is intensifying the water cycle. This brings more intense rainfall and associated flooding, as well as more intense drought in many regions."
"Climate change is affecting rainfall patterns. In high latitudes, precipitation is likely to increase, while it is projected to decrease over large parts of the subtropics. Changes to monsoon precipitation are expected, which will vary by region."
No trends, no confidence intervals, no prediction of magnitude of changes, and it will all "vary by region", as weather always does.
Wow, you have an excuse for everything!
Insult the source because you know they disagree with you.
Pretend that only exact words have any relevance to any other word you asked for.
Call anything you don't like "mush."
Criticize everything else at random.
Why bother wasting my time when you aren't willing to argue in good faith?
Right. Answered myself.
We'll see what their 2022 report says. And we'll keep watching the effects of gigatons of pollution that totally, absolutely, couldn't possibly alter the balance of our ecosystem, because that's not how equations work or something.
Jason, it's not a scientific source, and all of the projections are based on flawed models.
And don't take my word for it:
“Evidence is emerging from multiple directions that the models which show the greatest warming in the CMIP6 ensemble are likely too warm,” explains Dr. Gavin Schmidt, director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies."
And yet it's those same models with the flawed 8.5rcp scenario that provides the backbone of the AR6 assessment.
Why did they base their whole report in models they admit are flawed? Well because those are the models that show the scariest warming.
That's not how you do science.
Kazinski, do you deny that arctic warming is a thing. Or that it is proceeding faster than any precedent which can be found in the geophysical record? Do you grasp the facts and implications of melting permafrost throughout the world's arctic land masses?
If you do not deny that evidence of extraordinary warming, what do you make of it?
What do you make of that astonishing heat wave in the Pacific Northwest last summer? Just a fluke? Can you point to any statistically similar weather flukes known anywhere, ever?
I get that you discount to zero all attempts to estimate temperature conditions pre-thermometer. But there are now more than 200 years of post-thermometer records. Thomas Jefferson kept systematic weather records, using thermometers, at Monticello.
Where in all those records you presumably do accept do you find precedent for an ice-free arctic. Where do you find precedent for a new high temperature Canadian national record, set at a place north of 50 degrees north latitude, and 4.6C degrees hotter than its 1937 Canadian national high-temperature predecessor?
What do you make of that? What do you make of the fact that the new Canadian record high was not some local aberration, but part of a geographically vast, record-shattering wave of similarly disproportionate record temperature increases, which encompassed the entire Pacific Northwest region of North America?
Putting aside skepticism about theories and models, do you have any forthright way to engage with astonishing first-hand observations, without dismissing them?
No, I'm not denying Arctic warming is a thing, There has been recent warming.
But you are absolutely wrong about no precedent in the geophysical record. There has been much more rapid and prolonged warming in the past.
In fact there is some spotty evidence the Arctic was just as warm as it is now in the 40's. But we can't tell for sure because there is no good record dating that far.
There is very good evidence that sea levels were up to 10 meters higher than they are now just 5000 years ago, which of course implies higher temperatures:
https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Christoph-Hemleben/publication/10701406/figure/fig1/AS:279009968574496@1443532568590/Sea-level-reconstruction-since-the-start-of-the-Younger-Dryas-based-on-the-18O-record.png
"Kazinski, do you deny that arctic warming is a thing. "
-No.
-"Or that it is proceeding faster than any precedent which can be found in the geophysical record?"
No, there are examples in the geophysical record which saw rapid warming or cooling.
-"Do you grasp the facts and implications of melting permafrost throughout the world's arctic land masses?"
Sounds like an opportunity for more crop lands.
-"If you do not deny that evidence of extraordinary warming, what do you make of it?"
Climate changes over time.
-"Can you point to any statistically similar weather flukes known anywhere, ever?"
The Medieval warm period and Little Ice Age come to mind.
-"...Canada...warm...extreme...yadayada"
There's some interesting reading about the Medieval warm period, and how warm Greenland was back in 1000 AD...comparable to today.
If you're going to argue that increased CO2 levels increase global temperatures, sure. That's scientifically accurate. If you're going to try to say "specific" weather events are due to it...that's problematic. There's lots of weather and climate variation naturally.
Stephen Lathrop
January.25.2022 at 7:23 am
Flag Comment Mute User
"Kazinski, do you deny that arctic warming is a thing. Or that it is proceeding faster than any precedent which can be found in the geophysical record? Do you grasp the facts and implications of melting permafrost throughout the world's arctic land masses?"
Landrop - Of course the artic is warming - no one denies that. The earth is still emerging from the LIA.
The artic was undoubtly warming during the MWP, contrary to the multitute of paleo reconstructions claiming cooler MWP than present day.
Yamal - tree lines 275k further north than present day
forests carbon dated from the WMP being uncovered by receding glaciers in the columbian ice fields in CA, same with Mendenhal glacier. Human graves in the permafrost in greenland dating from the mwp, grain crops growing in greenland which require 2c+ warmer climate to grow. Those are just samples of the multitute of evidence of a warmer artic that are ignored in the paleo reconstructions.
your statement that rate of warming is unprecedented - is unsupported by any evidence inspite of the repeated claims by climate scientiests. The resolution of the proxy data is far to low to provide any insight into that question. (the warming may be unprecedent, but its like measuring milimeters when the most precise instrument for measurement is a yard stick)
(It helps to take a glass-half-full view on things. Right now, hospitals across the country are swamped with the unvaccinated. A recent study in Ohio found within the last year (from last January to this one) 95% of the people who died from COVID weren't fully vaccinated.
You see where I'm going with this: If all the usual suspects are here spouting factoids on climate change, then at least they're not out there doing their bit to sabotage our nation's heathcare system & cause unnecessary death via the Right's shiny new anti-vaxx play toy.
And that's what we call a silver lining......)
GRB - Comment - A recent study in Ohio found within the last year (from last January to this one) 95% of the people who died from COVID weren't fully vaccinated.
GRB - you are using the wrong time period for comparison. The death rate for the fully vaxed jumped big time starting in Aug/Sept 2020 which is when the effectiveness of vaxes starting dropping significantly. The current death ratio is approx 40%-45% of the vaxed which is approx 1/3 lower chance of death being vaxed.
Personally, I'm of the "FDA delenda est" school of thought. I wouldn't have shut down Project Warp Speed back in January, the way Biden did. I'd have rolled out updated vaccines as they were developed, instead of doubling and tripling down on a vaccine designed to be effective against a strain that's 3-4 variants back.
So, include me out of your anti-vax rhetoric, I'm pro-vax to a degree you won't find in the current administration.
I'm just not pro-mandate.
" The current death ratio is approx 40%-45% of the vaxed which is approx 1/3 lower chance of death being vaxed."
That's actually somewhat misleading, because having had Covid is at least as effective as being vaxed, and it's estimated that about half the population have already had Covid. A significant fraction of the 'unvaxed' have about the same statistics as the vaxed. (Or better!) The difference in stats between the vaxed and the 'unvaxed' is coming from the much smaller group who have neither had the vaccine nor Covid.
If you're unvaxed AND haven't had Covid yet, you're at a much higher risk than the official statistics make it look like. A really stupid consequence of refusing to take natural immunity into account when doing the statistics.
Brett - my comment regarding the death rate for the vax v unvaxed was approximate. Just pointing out the absurd claim by GRB of 95% of deaths from the non vaxed, along with pointing out using an invalid start date.
I am not overly comfortable with the data collection process for the deaths of vaxed vs unvaxed. The majority of deaths are in the 65+ age group which has a vax rate in the 90% range. In order to have deaths that high in that small 10% segment of the population, the case fatality rate needs to be 5x the case fatality rate that existed during the nov/dec/jan 2020/2021 wave.
"But there are now more than 200 years of post-thermometer records."
Typically (but especially the earlier ones) calibrated to 1 degree accuracy. The models run to tenths of a degree. I trust you understand the problem that lies therein.
I won't even bother discussing 200 years in terms of geologic (and climate) terms.
While I agree with the comment that attempting to model to a higher precision than your source data is a problem, it's worse that you describe. 1 degree of accuracy is possible but only for the best-situated and maintained stations. The ones rated class 1 (or maybe class 2). The large majority of temperature stations, unfortunately, are not in that ranking. Many suffer systemic problems in siting and maintenance that generates known skews to their data. Temperature trends run on the subset of stations in class 1 give you very different results than the trends based off all stations regardless of quality.
And, yes, these are systemic errors, not stochastic errors - which means they don't average out.
Kazinski, don't feed the troll. you are correct in your skepticism. The weakening of our magnetic field, and its excursion from the North Pole, is doing more to perturb the earths climate than any abundance of CO2 plant food emitted by human activity. Yes the Arctic is melting, but the Antarctic has record ice, conveniently left out of the scary "science" meant to keep people from critical thinking about the issue. There are also major climate/solar forcing actions at work from our star that create bizarre weather events that are not included in the models..
How did all those scientists miss these facts that a random internet twit claims to be true?
Is your peer-reviewed study available for reading, or do I need to get some Charmin before handling it?
Interesting. Your initial claim was that the IPCC "says there is no evidence" about climate change leading to more fires, which would mean that they had made an affirmative statement to that effect. Now you seem to be saying that they're not presenting evidence about climate change leading to more fires, which may be true but hardly contradicts the news coverage on the topic, which may be relying on other experts to support their claims.
So what? Since when is science consensus driven? Esp here when the “climate scientists” were cherry picked. Important exclusions were physicists and astrophysicists who might just have pointed at the variations in solar radiation from the sun as being the primary drivers, as well as the Earth’s wobble, distance from sun, El Niño/La Niña, etc.
It's cute that you believe the bullshit, but denying that we're adversely influencing our climate is just as idiotic of a position to take as claiming the Earth is flat.
Yes, it is that conclusive.
https://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus/
And yes, when an extraordinary number of scientific organizations and scientists all agree that something is in fact true, it matters.
If 97 Doctors tell you that you've broken your arm, and 3 of them say "nah, it's just a bad sprain," to whom are you going to listen?
But somehow for climate change, you have different standards and want to listen to the quacks.
We're absolutely "influencing" our climate to some extent. "Adversely" is a value judgment people are free to disagree with.
Sure Bellmore, free to disagree. But if your motive to disagree is transparently political, it's a cloudy kind of scientific vision, don't you think?
My motive for disagreeing is that I don't have this bias that the climate at the start of industrial civilization was some sort of global optimum which any departure from would be disastrous. I think you need to prove that raising the thermostat, (Or even lowering it!) would be bad. Not just assume it.
I think it's entirely possible that a climate a few degrees warmer would be net beneficial. Particularly if most of the warming was at night, further from the equator, and in the winter, which seems to be the case.
I also think there's a good chance increased CO2 levels, if they could be achieved at the right temperature, would be net beneficial in terms of the productivity of the biosphere, because C-3 photosynthesis plants are far from their optimum CO2 levels, which is why you see so much grass around.
What I don't want is an assumption it's going to be too warm, I want you to PROVE that warmer is too warm.
What political motivation is that?
Jason, I'm not denying that CO2 is causing a modest amount of warming. Probably about 1.3c per century.
We've got lots of science to confirm that: the satellite temperature record since 1979, the ARGO ocean temperature record, the Radiosonde balloon record. Even NASA GISS and the HadCrut data sets are in that general range although they are contaminated by the urban heat island effect.
"And yes, when an extraordinary number of scientific organizations and scientists all agree that something is in fact true, it matters." Unanimity is achieved when those who disagree with the official message are stigmatized, fired, canceled and de-platformed. Recall that the Climategate e-mailers agreed to try to get a publication's editor fired because he had accepted a moderately skeptical article for publication (as I recall, the editor was in fact fired). If all it takes to establish a universal truth is consensus of those who are permitted to publish, then Communism was a resounding success in the USSR. Those who dared to disagree out loud found themselves in a Kolyma labor camp.
Jason Cavanaugh
January.24.2022 at 10:40 pm
Flag Comment Mute User
"An overwhelming majority of climate scientists would respond by telling you that you're an idiot.
What other science would you like to ignorantly claim isn't true?"
Jason - From you comment, it seems you are completely unaware (or fooled) of how poorly the paleo climate reconstruction line up with well known historical data. Nor do you seem aware of the multitutes of proxies which are on direct conflict with the paleo reconstructions
If you're right, that would be GREAT. If the EPA wants to regulate carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases they should go to Congress and for that authority. The governing statutes clearly did not consider CO2. The executive branch and especially the bureaucracy shouldn't have the power to expand them in this way. The legislature is supposed to be the one making these decisions. ("But they won't" is not a reason to change this.)
Fastest way to reduce CO2 is to prohibit those who believe in global-climate-warming-change from exhaling.
Science-disdaining right-wing bigots are among my favorite culture war casualties.
I’m an earth scientist and have no intent of getting into a discussion of science with a politically addled chucklehead such as yourself. Suffice it to say that anytime I see any partisan of either party bleating about how the science is on their side it makes me want to throw a shoe at the screen.
It's not about the science. It's about corruption finding another reason to get in the way, to get paid to get back out of tthe way.
You could be 100% correct, yet completely irrelevant to the driving force behind the politics.
Have you paid no attention to massive corruption in the Olympic committee? Now multiply the billions by thousands. All dictatorships and half the nominal democracies with crap economies are 100% devoted to this process.
Happy days are here again!
Or flying to and from climate conferences around the world.
It's not surprising in the least that someone like you would think that believing in man-made climate change is only allowed if world leaders walk thousands of miles from one place to another.
Eviscerating the administrative state when the two parties no longer will negotiate with each other is a recipe for a failed state. Parliamentary systems foster compromise as the price for securing a governing majority, but because Congress cannot act without 60 votes in the Senate and the agreement of a majority of the House and the president, we are effectively paralyzed in the face of anything but a foreign invasion. That may have worked when fortress America was a geographic reality, but it won't work today in the face of international problems that cannot be solved with the comfort of oceanic borders.
I have a hard time understanding why, in times of divided government (ostensibly signalling significant disagreements within the body politic), it would be a good thing to have an unaccountable administrative state making decisions.
When we ended ear marks, we ended any reason to ever compromise. And now we’re much farther in debt and inflation is out of control. We only make things worse when we turn over our self governance to unaccountable administrative agencies. The proper thing is for voters to solve this. Frankly, the best solution is probably to break into 2 to 3 separate countries.
As the Greatest Thinker in American History, Thomas Friedman said:
That one party can just impose politically difficult and critically damaging policies needed to move a society backwards, too. You have to be pretty stupid to assume unaccountable power will always be exercised for the benefit of the people it isn't accountable to. Or even primarily!
Coincidentally, China is also a great example of damaging policies moving a society backwards.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/500-years-ago-china-destroyed-its-worlddominating-navy-because-its-political-elite-was-afraid-of-free-trade-a7612276.html
Well you are wrong there, the answer is that when the public gets fed up with the current course they will give one side or the other the majority they need to settle the issue.
But right now the public has no appetite for drastic action on climate change as shown both in election results and the polls.
OK, Boomer. Make it personal, or STFU. Resign now so you can be replaced by a diverse.
Let's hear your definition of a "failed state". Ideally one that doesn't depend on the state doing what YOU want it to do, since people disagree about what should be done.
That's a lotta woids for democracy working as intended.
You assume that a gridlocked state is a failed state. For those of us who value freedom, gridlock is a feature, not a bug.
Rossami, just for sake of argument, assume that the climate scientists are right and man-made climate change is posing an existential threat to the planet. That gridlock you love so much is making it impossible to do anything about it. I suppose that a century from now, what's left of humanity may take pride, as they survey the destruction around them, that at least you had your freedom, but I doubt that's how they will analyze it.
Well, it IS handy, I suppose, to start an argument from the premise that you're right.
For the sake of argument, assume that an asteroid is going to strike the Earth in 5 years, causing human extinction. Gosh, what is the FAA doing, holding up SpaceX's approval to do test launches on the Starship? It's our only hope of delivering enough nukes to divert the asteroid!
Hey, this assuming you're right, and mankind will go extinct if you don't get your way, is fun!
To be a bit more serious, climate scientists aren't saying that man-made climate change is posing an existential threat to the planet. Or even mankind. More of an "inconveniental" threat.
"existential threat"
Well, here's the thing. The IPCC report says nothing of the sort. It says, under the WORST case, GDP would be 10% lower by the end of the century. That's an impact of less than 0.1% per year. That's noise.
If it was an existential threat, please explain why those claiming so are riding around in private jets and live in huge energy chugging mansions. Why are they not riding coach and downsizing their carbon footprint?
Actions are not matching claims. Climate change is real, but it's manageable and something we will adapt to.
Brett, and Billy:
That some people are hypocrites and fly around in private jets is irrelevant to whether climate change is indeed a threat. Parts of the world are already facing famine and permanent flooding. A mass extinction event is already underway. The Western United States is burning in January. Sea levels are rising. Whether all of that adds up to "existential" may be open to debate, but it's a threat. My personal suspicion is that as between the two extremes -- we're all going to die versus nothing to see here folks -- the truth is probably somewhere in the middle.
None of that, however, has anything to do with the specific point I was actually making, which is this: Rossami was telling us how much he loves gridlock because his freedom. Well, the consequence of gridlock, on the other hand, is that it makes it impossible to respond to genuine threats. No matter what problems America faces, no matter how severe they are, no matter the consequences of not dealing with them, the government simply cannot act because the framers, in their wisdom, decided to allow a small and ever diminishing minority to stand in the way.
Now, maybe you think that's a good idea, but at some point there will be a crisis that we just can't respond to because the minority rules.
How can a person who believes man is becoming extinct because of carbon emissions emit any carbon at all?
How can one knowingly and willingly contribute to the extinction of all mankind?
Um, because apparently unlike you, they understand that the false alternative is a logical fallacy.
So, do you support war with china, or a total blockade of China, to reduce their Carbon emissions, since it is such a threat?
Why or why not?
"That some people are hypocrites and fly around in private jets is irrelevant to whether climate change is indeed a threat."
It's certainly relevant to whether THEY think it's a threat.
"Parts of the world are already facing famine and permanent flooding."
Less of the world is facing famine now than at any time in history, and the Maldives, supposedly threatened by rising seas, have been GROWING in area.
"A mass extinction event is already underway."
Easily accomplished by counting marginal 'species'. Species are going extinct all the time, if you count every little variety living in some pond somewhere. Which is not to say that I'm happy about the state of our ocean fisheries, which absolutely were over-fished for years.
"The Western United States is burning in January. "
Bad fuel burden management.
" Sea levels are rising."
And have been for recorded history.
No, it's not relevant to whether they think it's a threat. I believe having a double chocolate truffle cake for dessert is probably bad for me, but I'm probably going to do it tonight anyway. Almost none of us live up to our principles; doesn't mean they're bad principles.
The rest of your statements are flat out wrong and contradicted by people who do those things for a living.
I'm glad that you recognize that there are hypocrites. However, everything else that Brett described is in fact true and well-documented.
If they're so true and well documented, it's amazing that upward of 90% of people who do climate science for a living seem to have missed it.
No, the experts aren't always right, but that's usually the way to bet.
This is, in fact, more on the order of, "He must think he owns that bridge, he tried to sell it to me!"
Gore doesn't just live a high CO2 lifestyle while making noises about how CO2 needs to be reduced. He got wealthy promoting the idea that CO2 needs to be reduced. Got wealthy promoting the idea that ocean levels were rising dangerously, and spent the money buying beachfront property, literally!
The simplest explanation here is that, at least as far as he, and many of the high flying global warming promoters are concerned, it's a scam.
So how do you propose making the whole planet freezing cold all year long?
"just for sake of argument, assume that the climate scientists are right and man-made climate change is posing an existential threat to the planet. "
Then we need to immediately do one of two things.
1. Declare war on China, in order to reduce their carbon emissions. Presumably by destroying their carbon emitting industries.
2. Institute a total blockade of Chinese Maritime trade in order to accomplish the same.
Why you ask? Since 1990, Chinese carbon emission have risen from 2,000 to 10,000 mT (million metric tons) of CO2.
By comparison, in the same time frame 5,000 to 4,500 mT of CO2.
You could've totally eliminated US CO2 emissions over this time period, and global CO2 emissions would've still gone up, by more than 3000 mT from China alone. If global warming is, as you say, an "existential threat to the planet" then given Chinese emissions, their rapid rise, and their refusal to reduce emissions, the only valid response is war or total blockade.
Are you on board?
And this is a perfect example of why I've given up talking to you for Lent. "But what about" "Oh, look, squirrel" "Let's change the subject". Have a blessed day.
That's not a "squirrel", it's precisely on topic. You can't reduce CO2 into the atmosphere while the largest source is uncontrolled.
We could go on a crash program of nuclear power, and encourage China to do the same, but the same people who say the globe is threatened oppose that.
It's a squirrel when the subject is how federalism makes it impossible to fix problems, which is my original point.
Federalism doesn't really stop us from declaring war on China, or issuing a total blockade of China. Those are totally within the international domain. Chinese carbon emission are the major factor in global carbon emissions.
If you're unwilling to appreciate that fact, then you're not willing to face the real problem.
Federalism only makes it hard to "fix problems" when you haven't got a consensus that the problem is real. It gets in the way of imposing top down "solutions" on a population that doesn't agree with them.
It's like claiming democracy is bad because people who disagree with you keep winning elections.
Lent hasn't started yet. But that's besides the point.
If it's an existential threat....then you need to address the actual threat. Chinese carbon emissions
If its not really "existential". then, you need to admit it.
Where did I say it was existential? I said "Suppose FOR SAKE OF ARGUMENT" that it's an existential threat. This is why I no longer engage you -- you make stuff up.
Apologies. You did say "suppose for the sake of argument" that it was existential threat. And based the rest of the argument that it may indeed be existential.
But...you admit it's not an "existential threat" then? And your "suppose for the sake of argument" bit was entirely hypothetical, and not based in reality in the least?
Here's what I said further up the thread:
"Whether all of that adds up to "existential" may be open to debate, but it's a threat. My personal suspicion is that as between the two extremes -- we're all going to die versus nothing to see here folks -- the truth is probably somewhere in the middle."
Now, here's what's wrong with your China argument: In raw numbers China has worse numbers than we do, but that's because there are four times as many Chinese as there are Americans. If you look at it per capita, the average American has a much greater carbon footprint than the average Chinese. So it would be the height of utter hypocrisy to bomb China back into the stone age when we remain the biggest culprit, per capita.
What I do support is R&D into alternative energy forms; hydrogen seems promising. That, however, costs money.
Now let's assume, just for the same of argument, that the alarmist subset of climate scientists (and most of the media and actors) are wrong and that man-made climate change is not and existential threat but let's further assume that our overreaction to it will cripple economies and lead to the very famines, social disorder and death that you fear. A hundred years from how, that version of society will look around and think "thank god we dodged that bullet".
Given the historical record of success at authoritarian governments dealing with any prior social problem (ore more precisely, their abject lack of success), I'll take my chances with door number 2. And I say that even before considering the deplorable state of statistical malfeasance in many of the global warming studies.
Except that's not how it works.
Suppose man made climate change turns out to be complete hooey. At some point the scientists will figure that out. In the meantime, though, we will have adopted greener, more environmentally friendly ways of going about our business, that are healthier for us and for the planet. It hasn't crippled the economies of progressive countries that are already on board; if anything, they've found it to be beneficial. So, the worst that happens is that we learn different ways of doing things.
If I have to choose an unknown risk, the risk of doing nothing about climate change is far, far greater.
"It hasn't crippled the economies of progressive countries that are already on board;"
Which countries are "already on board" and have converted more than 50% of their electricity generation to renewable resources?
Where did I say "and have converted more than 50% of their electricity generation to renewable resources"?
This is why I'm no longer wasting time engaging with you -- you flat out make stuff up. I never said that, yet you've written as if it were part of my original statement. You're not an honest opponent; if I did respond on the substance you'd simply make something up about that too.
"... and have converted more than 50% of their electricity generation to renewable resources?"
Does it not get uncomfortable after a while to keep pulling things out of your ass to strawman the comments of others and pretend that you're right?
Talk about a gaping flaw in your arguments....
You clearly haven't been paying attention. Those "greener more environmentally friendly ways" include massive destruction of habitat in sensitive areas (deserts, bird flyways, etc), intensive mining of heavy metals (to power all the fancy batteries) often using child labor, and frequently generating more lifetime CO2 than the fossil fuel based technologies they were supposed to replace. "healthier for us" but already leading to increases in fuel poverty and winter deaths as the poor freeze in homes they can no longer heat. Germany's economy may not be fully "crippled" yet but nobody can call it healthy right now. Same with France, the UK and Australia.
Krycheck, your preferred policies are literally killing people already - and we're not 10% of the way to the economic and social disruption needed to accomplish your goals. And we're doing it despite a remarkable lack of evidence that the catastrophic effects you fear are realistic.
Plus, Rossami, I'm having trouble shaking the feeling that most of the climate change skepticism is ideologically driven. You don't like having a government that's able to fix problems, so you're more willing to deny that the problem exists. Same with Covid skepticism, mask skepticism and vaccine skepticism.
The real issue is this.
"Crises" are exploited to seize additional power to the central government, which uses it for political gain and to suppress the rights of the people, all too often.
"All the more reason it would be a good thing for Congress to enact a carbon tax."
What's the tax rate for exhaling?
" All the more reason it would be a good thing for Congress to enact a carbon tax. "
How many Republicans in Congress would you expect to vote for a carbon tax, Prof. Adler?
You seem to be a smart, decent, well-meaning man. You do not seem to be a bigot or a knuckle-dragger. Why -- and how -- are you still a Republican?
What wpuld a carbon tax accomplish?
Buy AlGore a private jet, so he can more easily jet between his different mansions?
A carbon tax is idiotic. It is rent seeking, nothing more, based on religion cloaked as bogus science. CO2 is far from being a pollutant, but is, rather, essential for life as we know it. Plants thrive in higher CO2 concentrations, which only makes sense because it is used by plants to make carbohydrates, which animals like us use to burn to live. If anything, there is probably too little CO2 in the atmosphere, probably at least partially caused by the recent Little Ice Age.
No carbon tax without a balanced budget amendment.
No new taxes so drunken teens can careen around even more wildly.
Where in the clean air act(s) did Congress authorized the EPA to regulate a byproduct of animal respiration?
Certainly, while democrats control both houses and the presidency, the congress can act.
But they don't actually control both houses because Manchin and Sinema are Secret Republicans, so nothing can be done as demanded by the Sovereign People, and with the climate crisis being an emergency then the only option left is to allow the EPA to act however it must to save the planet.
Benji
A better characterization is
50 repulicans
2 democrats
48 socialists
"48 socialists"
You're funny.
Krychek_2
January.25.2022 at 11:35 am
Flag Comment Mute User
"48 socialists"
"You're funny."
Funny but accurate
That's even funnier. Anyone who would mistake today's Democrats for socialists would probably think Kentucky Fried Chicken is an agency of the Commonwealth of Kentucky.
CO2 is a byproduct of pretty much all cellular respiration - in animals and plants.
This is a good thing.
More like this please.
Why do we need to redice greenhouse gas emissions?
Rent seeking.
The idea that CO2 emissions are somehow the thermostat of the earth has always been as absurd as thinking we can take 50 years of temperature data and extrapolate to determine what 'normal' is.
Speaking of absurd: do you also believe the world is flat?
Jason Cavanaugh
January.24.2022 at 11:57 pm
Flag Comment Mute User
"Speaking of absurd: do you also believe the world is flat?"
No one thinks the earth is flat.
Perfect analogy Jason:
Flat earthers believe the earth is flat because when they look out from their vantage point it looks flat to them.
But it's just as absurd to think temperatures from the late little ice age are the Earth's ideal just because that's when the thermometer was invented.
Good analogy. I knew about the low CO2 concentration in the atmosphere being the result of the LIA, but hadn’t put it together with the invention of the thermostat. Thanks.
Yes one of the great coincidences of science:
Q. When did the global temperature record start? A. Last half of the 1800’s.
Q. When did global warming start? A. Last half of the 1800’s.
Who'd of thunk it?
All the more reason it would be a good thing for Congress to enact a carbon tax.
Quite the libertarian, aren't you Professor Adler?
Someone convinced him he knows the future. Can't let people live their lives when you believe doomsday prophecies.
Well, you could if you actually rationally looked at what can be achieved with any politically possible policy versus the doomsday bogeyman. But rationality seldom coexists with doomsday beliefs.
Prof. Adler has never claimed to be a libertarian...
All the more reason it would be a good thing for Congress to enact a carbon tax.
Alternatively—and no doubt more effectively—Congress could enact an enlargement of the Supreme Court. If this Court decides to serve up an endless series of ideologically-driven defeats for carbon control measures, and renewable energy policy, Court enlargement is what everyone should expect.
The time lost on the way to getting it done will prove expensive of course. The far greater expense of not doing it will drive the enlargement decision. Nobody likes big expense increases imposed by unaccountable courts.
Fuck the Constitution, amiright?
Look at what you wrote! You complain about unaccountable courts because they won’t defer the lawmaking to unaccountable bureaucrats. This is somehow logically consistent to you?
We have a Congress that has the power to make law and is at least theoretically accountable to us. You - as you did with OSHA - want to let your King run the country with no checks and balances. Where was that attitude from you when the last King was in power?
Nevis, read my comment again. See if you can try to customize your replies to take account of the text you are answering.
Or, alternatively, go to Nevis, because that is where spell check seems to want you.
Bevis - replied appropriately to your comment
If the courts can be held to account by democracy by a roundabout Supreme Court expansion through elected Congress, than Shirley Congress can get off its ass and amend the EPA, or OSHA, as it sees fit directly.
COVID no longer qualifies as an emergency, insofar as it justifies emergency actions by the executive because Congress has no time to act.
I responded to precisely what you said.
When Trump was president your side screamed about damage to our norms and our institutions. Turns out y’all give no shits about them because you’re perfectly willing to destroy them in pursuit of raw power.
Any decision you don't like is "ideologically driven". You seem to have the "I want" theory of jurisprudence. EPA doesn't have the authority to regulate carbon. Congress didn't give it to them in the clean air act. If you don't like that, too bad. Just because you want something and Congress won't give it to you doesn't mean that courts can just make up the law so you can have it.
Stop projecting your fanaticism on others. It makes you look dumber than you already do.
So, amend the Constitution to allow for that. There is a process for that, you know, and it doesn't involve congress merely legislating over it.
For the most part, it doesn't even require a constitutional amendment. With a very few exceptions, the court is not saying that Congress can't do X - the court has merely said that Congress has not (under any yet existing law) delegated to the Executive Branch the unilateral right to do X. Congress could, for example, simply and clearly give the EPA the right to regulate CO2. Congress has not done that (and shows no signs of doing it anytime soon). The court is allowed and arguably even required to take note of that when deciding whether any given executive agency is overreaching their delegated authority.
It would be nice if we could get away from the 'This is the outcome I want. Let us figure out how to game the system to get that without having to debate and make hard votes one this.' It feels like (though I don't have data, so it is not a fact, just a feeling) that Hillarycare and Obamacare (and, to a lesser extent, the last 3 impeachments) have shellshocked legislatures, in the sense they don't want to make career ending votes. I think the next set of great battles will be with the administrative state, and add in discrimination and education bureaucracies to that mess.
The battle with the administrative state has been going on for decades. It hit a recent high with the Russia Collusion Hoax which attempted to overthrow the results of the 2016 election.
"I do not see these concerns as necessary fatal to further EPA climate efforts, but it is another obstacle with which the agency will have to contend (as if there were not enough already). All the more reason it would be a good thing for Congress to enact a carbon tax."
Did I stumble into Salon by accident? The EPA has too many "obstacles" in its path to controlling our lives in the name of "climate change"? A carbon tax is a good idea? Very Libertarian of you.
"the Biden Administration was using OSHA"s authority over workplace safety as a means of pursuing the broader (and worthwhile) public health goal of increasing Covid-19 vaccinations. "... "All the more reason it would be a good thing for Congress to enact a carbon tax."
Big government control of medical policy; energy policy; and new taxes? What is not to love?
We need Big Brother to make all our choices for us!
How else can we get the totalitarian control over our lives that we deserve?!
Reason dot com: For when you need a reason to give up all your rights and freedoms.
Yes?
Wow, that’s really too bad for those who would dictate to Americans without input from the representatives of the American people.
Government by the people keeps getting in the way of Dems' attempts to bully everyone.
Why the Supreme Court's Decision in NFIB v. OSHA May Be Even Worse News for Climate Regulation than You Thought
For freedom's sake let us hope so...