While a new report released today by the Council on Criminal Justice downplays the role anti-police protests played in last year's unprecedented homicide spike, a decline in pro-active policing following the protests remains the most likely cause.
My op-ed summarizes my new research paper, which explains how a decline in proactive policing following anti-police protests is producing the startling rise in homicides around the country.
A "Minneapolis effect" from lack of policing is a possible explanation for the startling 37% increase in murders in major cities in recent weeks.
Recent data from Minneapolis show an increase in shooting crimes but not other crimes, the same pattern as in Chicago in 2016. The likely reason is a reduction in police street stops, just as in Chicago in 2016.
Some additional thoughts about how a 2015 ACLU consent decree with the Chicago Police Department contributed to the 2016 homicide spike--responding to tweets from Professor John Pfaff and to comments from the ACLU.
After an ACLU consent decree with the Chicago Police Department dramatically reduced the number of stop and frisks, homicides significantly increased as a result.