U.K. Elections Show Populist Uprising Is Far From Over
Polling shows angry voters are prepared to reject the establishment in elections to come.
If you wondered whether the populist surge of the last decade shows any signs of abating, the answer is a resounding no. In last week's local elections in the United Kingdom, the biggest winner was the insurgent Reform Party, which went from almost no seats on local councils to the largest share and firmly established itself in regional parliaments. The next biggest winner was the upstart Green Party, which gained hundreds of seats. Squeezed out were the two traditionally dominant parties, especially the governing Labour Party. Polls suggest similar results can be expected elsewhere in elections to come.
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From Nowhere to a Dominant Election Showing
Prior to the election, the anti-immigration/populist Reform Party held all of two seats in local councils across Britain; it now has 1,454. The environmentalist/socialist Green Party gained 441 seats for a total of 587. Britain's Labour and Conservative parties, which have alternated in power for a century, lost 1,498 and 563 seats, respectively.
In Wales, the nationalist Plaid Cymru party won the most seats in the regional parliament for the first time, with Reform as the second-largest party. The Scottish National Party continues to dominate Scotland's parliament, though with a reduced presence; Labour and Reform tied at 17 seats each for second place, with the Greens close behind at 15 seats.
Reform had no representation in either of the regional parliaments before this election. It's fair to say that the results showed deep dissatisfaction with both major parties. Labour Prime Minister Keir Starmer, whose approval is almost 50 points underwater, faces calls from his own party to step down.
You can bet the results were watched across the English Channel in Europe, where establishment politicians have faced—and often lost to—populist insurgencies of their own in recent years. British election results and polling in several countries suggest the voters have plenty more revolt in them.
France and Germany Face Political Insurgencies of Their Own
In France, early polling for the 2027 presidential election puts Jordan Bardella, the candidate of the populist Rassemblement National, in first place at 35 percent. That's comfortably ahead of the second-place candidate, former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe, who pulls 20.5 percent.
"The far-right Rassemblement National would comfortably win the first round of a presidential election if it were held tomorrow," reports Zane Lilley of The Connexion.
In Germany, the state-funded Deutsche Welle broadcaster reports that "never before has a German government been this unpopular after only one year in office as that of Chancellor Friedrich Merz." The public broadcaster adds that "for the first time, there is a clear majority in support of the Alternative for Germany (AfD)—a party of which several regional chapters are classified as right-wing. At 27% nationwide, it has reached a new record high."
Like the U.K.'s Reform, the populist/anti-immigration AfD has done well in local elections, demonstrating strong support beyond its base in the region that was once communist East Germany.
A populist victory in any of these countries wouldn't be novel after years of governance by Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and her Fratelli d'Italia–led coalition, Poland's years under the Law and Justice Party, or after the participation of populist parties in the Netherlands' last coalition government. Populist parties have also won and governed elsewhere—including, notably, Hungary, where Viktor Orban and his Fidesz party governed for 16 years before losing power last month.
But Orban and Fidesz demonstrated that upstart populists can wear out their welcome. After many years in office, Orban and company were the political establishment. They displayed even more authoritarianism and corruption than traditional politicians, so disgusted voters turned them out.
The Many Flavors of Populism
That's not to say that Reform's breakthrough in the U.K. or the rise of the Rassemblement National in France or the AfD in Germany necessarily portend Orban-style thuggery in those countries. Populism is more of a grassroots reaction against local politics-as-usual than a coherent ideology. As Walter Russell Mead noted for The Wall Street Journal in reaction to the British election results, "The new direction in politics seems less firmly aligned with either the left or the right than with antiestablishment and identity-based politics."
That can mean a variety of outcomes depending on just what it is the electorate is reacting against in any given country. The results can be all over the place.
Writing last year for the European Center for Populism Studies, Amedeo Varriale commented that Meloni's Fratelli d'Italia, "despite its (distant) neofascist origins, is now steadily progressing toward liberal conservatism" and away from a "type of socialistic extreme right" that "was still influenced by neofascist anti-capitalism."
Along those lines, Reform leader Nigel Farage once associated himself with the free-market legacy of Margaret Thatcher, but he began remaking his political image several years ago. Reform calls to "cut red tape, cut business taxes, simplify planning, and create a stable, pro-enterprise environment." But it also flirts with nationalizing industries and mostly defines itself as nationalistic and anti-immigration.
France's Rassemblement National also takes a hard line against immigration and crime. On economics, the party's recent platforms propose restricting "unfair" foreign competition, renationalizing highways, subsidizing families and young workers, lowering the retirement age to 60, imposing a wealth tax, and increased funding for public healthcare. The party's positions once led the BBC to ask whether it was best characterized as "far right or hard left."
Likewise, the AfD is anti-immigration and nationalist, as are most populist parties. Its platform leans towards deregulation of business and the labor market and lower taxes, putting it at odds with Germany's penchant for intrusive bureaucracy. That said, its members have an unfortunate habit of embracing identitarianism when they're not playing with outright Nazism.
Whatever its flavor from place to place, the populist revolt of recent years isn't going anywhere. Voters in many countries remain discontented with the status quo and show every sign that they intend to turn out the establishment and put somebody else in power. That generally means emphasizing national concerns and restricting the flow of immigrants. Beyond that, though, results will depend on local culture and just what infuriated voters in each country and led them to reject politics as usual.
