Polymarket Returns to U.S. Users After a Nearly 3-Year Hiatus
The online betting company allows you to stake money on future events.
Talk is cheap—but Polymarket lets you put your money where your mouth is. Nearly four years after being shut down by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the online betting company that allows you to stake money on future events has become CFTC-compliant and relaunched for U.S. residents at the end of 2025.
Not everybody is thrilled about Polymarket's return. Commentators across the political spectrum have warned that betting, on sports or on anything, can cause financial and psychological harm, especially for those with a history of addiction. It's prudent to abstain from speculating with money you can't afford to lose, but Americans should still welcome Polymarket's comeback.
Shayne Coplan, an early ethereum investor and self-described cypherpunk, founded Polymarket in June 2020, when he was just 22 years old. The platform uses blockchain-backed smart contracts to operate "event markets"—futures-style markets where users bet on whether something will or will not happen. As Coplan has said, Polymarket "harness[es] the power of free markets to demystify the real world events that matter most to you" by using market prices to aggregate and transmit widely distributed knowledge—turning individual hunches into public information about the suspected likelihood of future events.
Leading up to the 2020 presidential election, Polymarket's monthly trading volume hit $25.9 million. Nobody can move that much money without catching the attention of the government. The CFTC launched an investigation in October 2021. By January 2022, Polymarket had settled the CFTC's charges—facilitating event markets without registering with the CFTC—by paying a civil penalty of $1.4 million and barring U.S. residents from the platform.
During its nearly three-year U.S. hiatus, Polymarket grew into the world's largest prediction market, facilitating over $3 billion in monthly trades by October 2025. That same month, Intercontinental Exchange announced plans to invest as much as $2 billion in Polymarket after the company acquired a CFTC-registered contract market and clearinghouse in September.
This article originally appeared in print under the headline "The Return of Polymarket."
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But gambling remains retarded.
But it’s ok if the government gets a cut of the action.
Retarded or not, it's none of the government's business.
And addictive, and morally dubious.
The thing about being libertarian is that you can recognize real societal harms while still believing that government bans would do greater damage to society overall. That does not mean denying the devastation to individuals. Gamblers, alcoholics, and drug addicts usually have their lives utterly destroyed by their vice (see: Sarcasmic). The claim is simply that state prohibition tends to harm the social fabric more than it helps it.
In that framework, the proper corrective is social pressure rather than government coercion. Norms, stigma, and cultural expectations are supposed to suppress destructive impulses without handing the state sweeping powers.
The fly in the ointment, of course, is that for the last 80 to 100 years social pressure has steadily lost out to mass media manipulation. We are told it is fine to have sex with anyone or anything at any time for any reason except reproduction; that fetuses are not human; that divorce is consequence-free; that having children is bad; that humans themselves are bad; and that merely tolerating something now requires endorsing and celebrating it.
These are not natural conclusions for a human society to arrive at on its own. They are the result of sustained cultural conditioning. When media ecosystems are captured or steered, sometimes by state actors themselves, including agencies like the CIA, the informal social safeguards libertarians rely on can be deliberately bypassed or neutralized.
Well put ML.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/betting-on-venezuela-president-maduro-s-exit-a-trader-earned-over-400000/ar-AA1TwWYS?ocid=BingNewsSerp
Betting on Venezuela President Maduro’s exit, a trader earned over $400,000
Those with insider connections to the Junta of Dear Orange Caligula swill cum out ahead, just ass they usually do, dooo-dooo-dooo, DEEP doo-doo!!!
Pissy you lost money on that, Melvin?
It found a way to bet buckets of shit?
POOP! Haha I’m so funny!
Corruption (such ass suck ass insider trading and betting) is a bunch of poop, and Penguin Poop finds shit funny!!! Twat an UDDER, nuttier, sluttier slurprise!
More news at sick-sick-sick 6:66!!!
POOP!
Penguin Poop is THE GRAND Pooppoop of poop!!!
Walz +10
D-LAM has becum cuntaminated and delaminated!!! Shit is falling apart; the center can SNOT hold any moah, if shit EVER was able to!
POOP! Haha I’m so funny!
SQRLSY salivates every time you do that.
I'm surprised you didn't just post a vanity fair link about a conservative radio host in DogPatch who died from/with/of/adjacent to COVID.
I'm SNOT surprised That PervFected YOU lusts after Political Tribal Correctness, Death, Suffering, and Disease!!! SHAME on You PervFectly EVIL people!
So then THIS one is true...
Killing people is good ass long ass anti-vaxxers have their way in promoting anti-vaxism ass THE most fashionable of ALL Marks of Tribal Virtue!!!
And THIS one is FALSE?
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/united-states-rates-of-covid-19-deaths-by-vaccination-status?country=~All+ages
And the EVIL, death-suffering-and-disease-lusting PervFected Tribalists are the data-driven ones?
This ultimately comes down to "value judgments". Shit is clear to me that Political Tribal Correctness, Death, Suffering, and Disease align FAR better with the "value judgments" of certain EVIL people that I could name, than "human thriving" does!
You PervFectly wrote...
"I will also note, because it must be said, once we got out of the peak delta period, all deaths for vaccinated/unvaccinated get so laughably close as to not even really bring it up for discussion."
Once the war was WON by 'A) Smart and benevolent people who love their neighbors and do SNOT want to spread diseases, getting vaccinated, and 'B) Stupid people dying off, then shit doesn't make much difference (let's just ignore the HUGE difference in the earlier time span, when stupid people were dying like flies, for being too stupid to get vaxxed).
This whole line of argument is like saying that what few "NAZIs" (neo-NAZIs) remain, any more, now that World War II is over, means that there was NO need to do ANYTHING about Shitler's regime killing millions!
GFY, Melvin.
Ask, and ye shall receive wisdom!
Do you recall the awesome enchanter named “Tim”, in “Monty Python and the Search for the Holy Grail”? The one who could “summon fire without flint or tinder”? Well, you remind me of Tim… You are an enchanter who can summon persuasion without facts or logic!
So I discussed your awesome talents with some dear personal friends on the Reason staff… Accordingly…
Reason staff has asked me to convey the following message to you:
Hi Fantastically Talented Author:
Obviously, you are a silver-tongued orator, and you also know how to translate your spectacular talents to the written word! We at Reason have need for writers like you, who have near-magical persuasive powers, without having to write at great, tedious length, or resorting to boring facts and citations.
At Reason, we pay above-market-band salaries to permanent staff, or above-market-band per-word-based fees to freelancers, at your choice. To both permanent staff, and to free-lancers, we provide excellent health, dental, and vision benefits. We also provide FREE unlimited access to nubile young groupies, although we do firmly stipulate that persuasion, not coercion, MUST be applied when taking advantage of said nubile young groupies.
Please send your resume, and another sample of your writings, along with your salary or fee demands, to ReasonNeedsBrilliantlyPersuasiveWriters@Reason.com .
Thank PervFected You! -Reason Staff
So you declare surrender, Melvin?
I can SNOT cunt-vince PervFected YOU to offer Your PervFected Writing Skills to tReason.cum; NO! I cun't do SHIT against an unwilling non-listener!!! So just go right ahead and WASTE Your PervFected, UDDERLY cuntvincing writing skills!!! Go ahead, see if I care, any moah!!!
Then yes, in that case, I SURRENDER in the face of YOUR PervFected insistence on WASTING Your Precious Writing Skills!!!
(On the off chance that You change Your PervFected Mind, don't forget... Please send Your PervFected resume, and another sample of Your PervFected writings, along with Your PervFected salary or fee demands, to ReasonNeedsBrilliantlyPersuasiveWriters@Reason.com .)
Ah, so you're thirsty for more diarrhea.
It calls that ‘SQRLSY cocoa’.
He tripled down on it and still didn’t read the graph.
Hahahahahahahahahahaha
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/united-states-rates-of-covid-19-deaths-by-vaccination-status?country=~All+ages
The graphs CLEARLY show (for ALL butt Politically Correct Death-Disease-and-Suffering-lusting Tribalists) that, during the worst of the pandemic, NON-shitheads WISELY chose vaccinations, both for themselves AND for their neighbors!!! (SNOT lusting after being disease-spreaders unto their neighbors... Y'all TrumpTurds ever hear of "loving yer neighbors"?) WHY do vaxx-haters LOVE death, suffering, and disease? Do Ye REALLY PervFectly think and stink that Dear Orange Caligula will reward YOUR PervFected, Mind-Infected, Ideological Idiocy with "equal access" to His Queen, Spermy Daniels? And-or highly overpaid jobs ass ICE goons or Imperial Palace guards?
Give shit UP, fer YOUR own good, Ye PervFectly deceived FOOLS!!!
Read it for real you stupid fuck.
Marxist Moose-Mammary Reptilian Necrophilian Necrophiliac, EVERYTHING that You PervFectly "read for real", reveals to PervFected You that You should keep right on being a Servant, Serpent, and Slurp-Pants of the Evil One... Worshitting death, disease, and suffering (and HATING vaxxes and sanitation that fends OFF said death, disease, and suffering) is just a SMALL part of Your PervFected Self-Worshit and Satan-Worshit!!!
Trust me; this shit will SNOT lead You to Your Happy Place!!! Turn back NOW!!!
Dems favorite countries all agree removing Maduro is bad.
https://legalinsurrection.com/2026/01/china-russia-iran-condemn-capture-of-venezuelas-maduro-hezbollah-decries-american-arrogance/
Meanwhile the statement from Millei yesterday was great.
And the Starmer Fuhrer shows what a chicken he is, as usual.
At least the Russians, Cubans, and Iranians had the guts to say what they felt, even if it was wrong and asinine.
Starmer is being too cute by half.
His intelligence service was just bitchslapped by this operation (The UK was responsible for the drones on Putin's residence).
Starmer may be the worst PM in British history. Worse than Lord North, worse than Anthony Eden and worse than Harold Wilson.
And that's after a run of spectacularly bad Conservative PMs.
I am absolutely convinced he wants to destroy Britain for his globohomo Trilateral Commission pals.
Majority of anti US protests yesterday were funded by a global Marxist organization.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/second-front-how-socialist-cell-us-mobilized-pro-maduro-foot-soldiers-within-12-hours
So are some of the commenters here.
Need to shut those groups down and seize their funds.
We know who they are so now you can destroy them (operationally). The American people need to take inspiration from the French and Dutch farmers and the Canadian truckers and stop waiting for government to do this.
There are tens of thousands of lawyers and millions of citizens who could tie these guys up with lawsuits and protests forever. The American left has no problem doing it so why can't the American people?
Cause unlike leftists, most of us have jobs?
Ryan Saavedra
@RyanSaavedra
Venezuelan journalist Germania Rodriguez Poleo's message to those who are mad that President Trump captured dictator Nicolas Maduro:
"Do not for a moment let your hatred and disdain for Donald Trump have you defending the dictator of my country, which was destroyed by [Maduro] and [Hugo] Chavez and their system 20 years ago. We Venezuelans are very, VERY happy that our dictator has been arrested, removed, and will be put through a trial. It's the first time we're seeing justice in 26 years! Now let's hope they get all of those criminals out of Venezuela and then we can return home."
https://x.com/RyanSaavedra/status/2007566178261090776
Think this is my favorite meme so far.
https://x.com/CaroDiRusso/status/2007631695965762017
“I got a new type of oil for you Big Boy.”
https://x.com/AutismCapital/status/2007583689874780329
lol
Oh no! Not Iran!
Aren’t they on the UN Human Rights Council?
Can we bet on how long it will take to remove mamdani from New York?
He wont be removed. DeBlasio was never removed. They will just import more foreign born.
Yesterday Mamdani said he will go after landlords that dont improve property to a good standard. At the same time he wont let those landlords make enough to pay for improvements. All on thr back of NGOs getting first rights to any property for sale.
He needs to be sued endlessly.
This.
Why I prefer socialists and communists over libertarians part 4,651:
With libertarians you have to wait 10 years or so after some Republican launches an idiotic war to get them to acknowledge that invading Cuba/Vietnam/Iraq was a bad idea. Communists, on the other hand, are pretty much out there on Day 1 to oppose imperialism.
I don’t like that with libertarians you have to wait ~3649 more days for them to come around. Before that they’re writing articles on Polymarket or some other bullshit.
You also like them because they're pedophiles, Shrike.
Fuck off troll.
Walz +8
Die
Guys: Libertarian internationalist here. I don’t like arbitrary borders or the devices/personnel that prevent the free flow of goods and labor across those borders.
With that background in mind, why is some shitty dictator in Venezuela my problem? I already have a shitty dictator in Washington DC. Shouldn’t I worry about that absolute POS and not some rando dictator in Caracas?
So you believe in borders sometimes?
Shrike is finally showing his true Bushpig/neocon colors here.
I triple fucking dare you to try.
So you deny elections and prefer governments to be overthrown by military coup?
Seems you should have moved to Venezuela when Chavez was around. Maybe go there now and profess your ideas to the masses. I am sure they will find you very amusing.
You see? With socialists you get immediate and concrete denunciations of imperialism
A former Venezuelan diplomat speaks to Jacobin about how the state, military, and popular forces are responding to US military aggression — and what comes next.
https://jacobin.com/2026/01/venezuela-response-trump-attack-diplomat-interview
With libertarians you get articles about how US imperialism would be better if those imperialistic actions were backed up by a Congressional rubber stamp.
Trump Should Have Tried To Get Congressional Authorization If He Wanted To Strike Venezuela and Capture Maduro
Should have tried, Eric?!? What am I saying $50 bucks a year for my support of libertarian principles if I can’t get a full-throated denunciation of something Teddy Fucking Roosevelt might have done? Absolutely pathetic.
I laugh at your impotent rage.
How many votes did mudro get again?
"if those imperialistic actions"
Not "imperialistic", Shrike, merely undocumented.
It wouldn't have happened if safe routes to Caracas were opened for migrant special forces children, who just wanted a better future.
Hey, Shrike, what happened to your original SPB account? I heard it got permabanned for posting hardcore child porn.
Who wants to be the one to tell Jack about VPNs?
They were going after banks and processing companies for people using the sites.
My worry about Polymarket isn't gambling itself but the interpretation of results when a proposition is anything not perfectly crisp. If a prop bet is weakly worded (or the rules lawyers are highly motivated), then events may go almost exactly how you expect but you will still lose. This can happen when some word or phrase has enough wiggle-room (a "technicality") allowing it to be interpreted in some corrupt way that calls the bet off, postpones resolution indefinitely, or even hands the win to the other side.
They add clarifying terms to the bet. An example.
https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-invade-venezuela-in-2025?tid=1767546395376
True, like of/with/from/adjacent to something.
100% safe and effective... with the downside being that the "vaccine" cures cancer too... and I get a nifty passport to go along with it? I like those odds!
So effective it also prevents car accidents.
But the analysis relies on whether you die from a car accident or with a car accident.
Return of Polymarket huh? Reading that I was for a minute, just one minute, distracted from the Epstein files. What does Nicastro have to hide?
https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-named-in-epstein-files-by-june-30
https://polymarket.com/predictions/epstein
How long before Nicastro ends up on the list? I'm in for a C note.
Enlightening piece at Forbes that explains how the country with the world's largest known crude oil reserves went broke with the socialists in charge and why Trump thinks American oil companies should be in charge.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2026/01/03/venezuela-maduro-and-the-long-shadow-of-oil-expropriation/
Who knows more about oil extraction and marketing than oil companies?
Socialists with strong esg scores
And aren’t those companies the rightful owners anyway? Chavez stole them after he took over.
One of their problems is that Venezuelan oil is low quality. It's thick, sticky, high-sulphur stuff that requires special equipment and treatment. Competent companies required to make money on it.
edit: Guess I should have read the story before commenting. That's what it's about....
Well that's why I found the article enlightening because I didn't know that. It exposes the lie that Trump wants to steal the oil. The US doesn't need Venezuelan oil, we have all of the oil we need right here and better oil and we can get the equivalent of their sticky oil from Canada. The beneficiaries of letting US oil companies resume operations in Venezuela are primarily the Venezuelans.
Hey, Reason, I know this isn't your thing and all, but it's kinda important.
Too local
En Banc will reverse. It's the 9th silly.
Reason isn't going to like that.
May be some insider trading on some Maduro bets for polymarket.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/insider-trading-new-polymarket-account-made-12x-gain-venezuela-intervention
As a result, a US House representative is already preparing to introduce a bill that would prohibit government officials from using inside info to profit in prediction markets.
Seems like it should already be against the rules to profit from inside information.
No wonder people spend a billion dollars to get a $140,000 job.
As Coplan has said, Polymarket "harness[es] the power of free markets to demystify the real world events that matter most to you" by using market prices to aggregate and transmit widely distributed knowledge—turning individual hunches into public information about the suspected likelihood of future events.
Far out man... does anyone have any data on how Polymarket winners track with actual outcomes? Ie, is Polymarket at all useful to predict outcomes?
It failed to predict Trump's first election. Overall? Not sure.