How the NFL Draft Screws Over Players

Plus: a new NFL stadium, a Boston Marathon record, and Shoresy (huh?)

Good morning and welcome to another edition of Free Agent! I hope your team's "arm barn" is holding up alright.

It's NFL Draft week, and if you're heavily invested in this, it's probably a sign your team sucks and needs the help. We'll talk about how NFL Draft picks are getting screwed, and you'll view those images of draftees smiling next to Commissioner Roger Goodell in a weird new light. Then we'll move on to a possible new NFL stadium, a marathon record, and an awesome TV show.

Locker Room Links

• After a rocky start and much ink spilled over how to fix the NBA, regular season TV ratings were down a modest 2 percent. Meanwhile, NHL attendance hit a new record.
• How pickleball took MLB teams by storm.
• Congress is heading for a showdown with the World Anti-Doping Agency over Chinese influence.
• Revenge for the 4 Nations Face-Off: The U.S. women beat Canada in hockey to take gold at the annual IIHF Women's World Championship—see the winning goal here.
• The Professional Women's Hockey League is expanding—not to Detroit, like it should, but to Vancouver. (Possible team names here.)
• Oregon wants to spend $800 million on an MLB ballpark.
• Elsewhere in Reason: "What Happens When Presidents Defy Court Orders?"
• Matt Strahm is a national treasure.
  

  Phillies' Matt Strahm has been called a Nicolas Cage look-a-like throughout his MLB career.

  Ahead of Wednesday's game, the reliever showed off his custom glove with the Declaration of Independence printed on it.

  "I stole it, then made a glove out of it." pic.twitter.com/eO7bPuvdxc

  — Front Office Sports (@FOS) April 17, 2025

The Pick Is In Screwed

When Cam Ward (almost certainly) gets drafted first overall by the Tennessee Titans on Thursday night, he'll earn a contract worth $43 million over four years. Must be nice! But that value is dramatically lower than top draft picks were getting 15 years ago.

In 2009, Matt Stafford agreed to contract terms with the Detroit Lions the day before the draft—he went first overall and then signed a deal with a total value of $78 million. The next year, Sam Bradford went first overall to the then–St. Louis Rams and inked a deal worth a maximum of $86 million (or about $117 million in today's dollars, thanks to inflation). Those deals had $42 million guaranteed for Stafford and $50 million guaranteed for Bradford.

But then draft pick salaries fell off a cliff. The following year's top pick, Cam Newton, got just $22 million for four years (fully guaranteed). The 2011 collective bargaining agreement stripped away almost all the negotiating power draftees had with teams. From then on through at least the end of the current labor agreement, rookies could either agree to the preset salary system or they could skip a year—and then have to get drafted again and get stuck with a preset salary again.

The money went from drafted players to older players. Who do you think negotiated the 2011 collective bargaining agreement for the players union? Future players like Ward, who was 9 years old at the time, obviously didn't get a say.

The other major professional sports leagues do versions of this too. Whoever gets to pick Cooper Flagg first in the NBA Draft gets to keep his rookie salary down to just $13.8 million. When NHL draft picks get to the show, they sign entry-level contracts with a maximum salary under $1,000,000 (length varies from one to three years depending on their age). MLB rules are a mysterious fog that lead to "service time" manipulation to keep players from reaching free agency too quickly.

With little negotiation power, it's no surprise some NFL draft picks, like Caleb Williams last year, don't have an agent (this would ruin the Cush plotline in Jerry Maguire). Since the average NFL career is between three and four seasons, many players never get to negotiate for their worth in a contract.

The system works out well for the league's owners, who get to keep a below-market ceiling on a large portion of their player contracts. It works well for veteran players, who get to soak up a bigger portion of the salary-capped pie. It doesn't work out for young draft picks—and it's a surprise more of them don't speak out about it.

Who's Taking Your Money This Week?

The Washington, D.C., government and the Washington Commanders are closing in on a deal for a new stadium and an accompanying development. When the entire project is estimated to cost $3 billion, with $2.5 billion coming from the team, the deal sounds downright benevolent. The city government's $850 million cost seems small in comparison.

But $850 million is still a lot of money—$1,250 per resident, if you estimate D.C.'s population at 680,000. The city is full of die-hard Redskins Commanders fans, but I bet most residents would rather see their $1,250 share spent on something else. (Frankly, being forced by government to pay that much for a stadium and not even getting a free ticket out of it is offensive.)

Even if the Commanders come to an agreement with Mayor Muriel Bowser, other political challenges lie ahead. "It's unclear how DC has the money to do this," as stadium financing expert J.C. Bradbury posted. The city already has $515 million committed to Capital One Arena. Congress also has to approve the city's budget and might balk at the spending. Amazingly, D.C. Council Chairman Phil Mendelson is one of the few local politicians in the country who has the right line on taxpayer dollars and sports: "I have said many times that I support a stadium and welcome the return of our football team, but without the investment of public dollars," he told NBC News4. (But he still voted to "invest" public dollars in Capital One Arena.)

The team's current stadium, Northwest Stadium (formerly FedExField, and yes, it apparently was all one word) is in terrible physical condition and was horribly managed by former team owner Dan Snyder. Perhaps upgrades by the new ownership group have changed things since my last game, but the sorry state of affairs doesn't mean the D.C. government should subsidize a new stadium—sports are just entertainment, not an industry that should or must be supported by government spending.

Boo Commanders. Boo owner Josh Harris. Boo Washington, D.C., government.

A Record for Humanity

I get mixed feelings about a lot of record-breaking achievements in sports, but new records in running always bring a smile to my face. They feel like achievements for all humanity, not just the individual.

When records fall in other sports, we get arguments about different playing eras, offensive styles, and quality of opponents. Running records are more about beating the clock than beating your opponent—and records are falling more and more often. They show how much humanity has figured out about health, nutrition, physics, and athletics, each lesson building on top of another. Even technological improvements in running shoes have played a part.

With that in mind, congratulations to Sharon Lokedi for crushing the Boston Marathon's course record for women by more than two minutes. She spent hours learning and training and it all came together in the race—I, personally, had nothing to do with it, nor did most people. But she couldn't have done it without all the lessons we've learned about how to run 26.2 miles faster and faster without dying. It's a small example of another barrier that humanity can break down when people have the drive, resources, and freedom to pursue their dreams.

Never Lose Again

I get it. It's playoff time, but your NHL team is dusting off their golf clubs instead of sharpening their skates. You wish you wanted to watch but putting the playoffs on makes you sigh.

Thankfully, Shoresy is here to help you. It's the best TV show about hockey you'll ever see. It's what Brockmire was for baseball except the fourth season doesn't suck and it's still going strong. It's Letterkenny but with a plot. Anyone who's ever felt a sports-induced emotion will love it. You'll laugh, you'll cry, you'll start quoting it every single day, you'll see the best TV romance you've seen in years.

Just don't let any kids watch it, or they'll start telling you to give your balls a tug.

Replay of the Week

Sean Casey's not the only one to get thrown out at first base from left field anymore.

This will go in the books as a groundout to left field pic.twitter.com/1HGbZUEaIT

— Jomboy Media (@JomboyMedia) April 17, 2025

That's all for this week. Enjoy watching the real game of the weekend, Arsenal against Olympique Lyonnais in the Women's Champions League.

Comments

[Don't look at me! (Tariffs are killing the penguin industry!)]

How the NFL Draft Screws Over Players

I often weep for those poor multimillionaires playing a kids game.

[JesseAz (Prime Meanster of Sarcasia)]

MLB used to be the most popular. But lack of a salary cap and ways to abuse the draft/draft not being able to show immediate betterment, is why the MLB is slowly falling. Viewership is way down. You have teams spending 5x more than other teams.

The NFL has surged in popularity due to parity. This has made players overall be paid more. Popularity leads to higher pay.

[Think It Through]

Structured astronomical salaries (but lower than they used to be) for rookies and other newer players makes sense to everyone except the author, I guess, because no matter how hyped or successful a player is before that, there is no guarantee he will make it as a star in the highest league. Show some performance first.

[But SkyNet is a Private Company]

It’s not “the players” that are getting “screwed”, it’s those at glamour positions the top of the 1st round.

Everybody else is doing better, since NFL salaries are a finite pie (that gets bigger every year)

[Bubba Jones]

They had a rookie cap that all went to the first round.

Now they redistributed it.

If you're a 1st round pick who doesn't make it to year 5, maybe you didn't deserve a $100M rookie contract.

Owners pay the same amount, regardless of how the players divide it. So this isn't really about them. Except that it makes the job of the manager easier.

[JFree]

It's still Monopoly 101

Team owners don't own anything that is per se valuable. Media contracts and game day receipts are valuable - but no one has ever gone to or watched a game to see the owner own. But unlike every other country, the sports governing body is controlled by a small group of team owners. So those owners control leagues, schedules, rules of the game, stadiums, team relocation, player entry/movement, ownership of competing/cartel teams - and through them the media contracts and team revenues and stadium land deals.

It's a sweet deal for owners and a shitty deal for players, fans, munis. Same shit applies to MLB and NBA except that the MLB has a more explicit antitrust exemption which allows them to control the minors where NBA/NFL control their minor leagues thru the NCAA cartel

[Don't look at me! (Tariffs are killing the penguin industry!)]

Who should run the show if not the owners?

[But SkyNet is a Private Company]

This is idiotic on several levels.

No one goes to a restaurant to see the cook cook (well, except the uberpretentious. They made a nice movie about them with Ralphe Finnes)
No one goes to the concert to see the venue owner own or the promoter promote.
No one goes to the movies to see the chain stockholders own stock

[Mickey Rat]

Alright, let us just wallow in the Marxist world view. You are looking at a mature business, while ignoring what went into building it up to this point where the owners took a lot of risk creating t he franchises and the league.

[Adans smith]

With our taxpayer funded stadiums their contracts would be much lower. excuse me if I don;t weep for them.

[Dillinger]

>>But that value is dramatically lower

dude if you can't find value in $43million ...

[Dillinger]

>>Sean Casey's not the only one to get thrown out at first base from left field anymore.

lol a 7-3 double play because O'Neil Cruz doesn't know how to play baseball.

[Dillinger]

>>It's playoff time, but your NHL team is dusting off their golf clubs instead of sharpening their skates.

not in Dallas ... yet lol ... bamo Estrellas!

[Dillinger]

>>she couldn't have done it without all the lessons we've learned about how to run 26.2 miles faster and faster without dying.

bully for the record but is this ^^ a lesson we need to learn?

[Don't get eliminated(How can you have any pudding if you don't eat yer penguin meat)]

Been meaning to check out Shoresy. Does it have as many hotties as Letterkenny?

[AT]

This will go in the books as a groundout to left field

Baseball is so weird.

We'll talk about how NFL Draft picks are getting screwed

Oh Lord, don't tell me we're going to have to watch the Kaepernick slave auction video again.

Also, join me in a hearty laugh: https://x.com/nypost/status/1913958380311335350

[Don't get eliminated(How can you have any pudding if you don't eat yer penguin meat)]

I missed that baseball reference. As someone who only watches baseball when my team is competitive, and doesn’t grok many of the intricacies of the game, it’s almost impossible to ground out to left field.

[Uncle Jay]

"How the NFL Draft Screws Over Players."

Yeah, it must be tough to selected by a team to pay you millions of dollars to play a child's game.
Oh, the horror.
The horror!

[Don't look at me! (Tariffs are killing the penguin industry!)]

This guy groks it.

[EISTAU Gree-Vance]

“Enjoy watching the real game of the weekend….”

Lol. Oh, for sure, bruh. Don’t forget to wear your pussy hat!

[Get To Da Chippah]

In 2009, Matt Stafford agreed to contract terms with the Detroit Lions the day before the draft—he went first overall and then signed a deal with a total value of $78 million. The next year, Sam Bradford went first overall to the then–St. Louis Rams and inked a deal worth a maximum of $86 million (or about $117 million in today's dollars, thanks to inflation). Those deals had $42 million guaranteed for Stafford and $50 million guaranteed for Bradford.

And in 2007 the Raiders shelled out $61 million ($32m guaranteed) for Jamarcus Russel, one of the biggest busts of all time. Then it was the franchise that got screwed. Teams were just as happy to not be expected to shell out absurd contracts for unproven rookies.

[Armchair]

A couple points with regards to the NFL rookies and drafts.

Point 1: You can't just rely on the #1 picks. You should also look further down the draft, (ie the #2 and #3 picks).
To use the 2009 versus 2024 examples, the #2 pick was Jason Smith. He got a contract for $33 Million guaranteed (up to $61 million, but he was a bust), over 6 years. So $5.5 million a year. The 2024 #2 pick was Jayden Daniels, who got a $37.5 million contract (guaranteed) for 4 years. Or $9.3 million a year. With inflation...Jayden's making more per year.
Or looking at #3, that's Tyson Jackson (5 years, $31 million guaranteed, 6.2 million per year) versus Drake Maye (4 years, 36.6 million, 9.1 million per year). Again...not a bad deal.

Point 2: Asking current NFL players, even rookies, to change the system...generally won't be worth it. Because THEY won't benefit immediately, the players behind them will. The rookies are still locked into their contracts, and if future rookies get more money, it will end up coming out of the current rookies future potential earnings (since they will be vets then). Moreover, rookie contracts tend to be shorter now (4 years, as opposed to the 5-6 years in 2009), so rookies can hit free agency faster

Those points really need to be addressed.
1. Compare not just the #1 pick, but other rookie contracts in the draft and how they compare to today
2. Compare the rookie time to free agency under the old system versus the new system.
3. Ask why current rookies would give up more of their future earnings to future rookies.

[MasterThief]

Exercising those 5th year options are expensive these days. I do think only focusing on the top pick of the drafts hurts his case as well. 1st round picks have different rules.
I can sympathize with the players wanting to get as much money guaranteed from the start. The average nfl draftee's career is about 3 years but that number goes up to about 6 if they make their first 53 man roster. That means most can only feel like the rookie contract is guaranteed and a bit more can get a couple years out of a second contract. They also have to consider injuries, strain on their bodies, and other aspects that could cut their careers short.
From a consumer perspective, I'd rather see rookies get paid less. I want players fighting to earn their second contracts. With the new NCAA rules we already have millionaire primadonnas who get paid then just go through the motions rather than giving their best.

[Longtobefree]

A system where black men get auctioned off - - - - - -

Didn't that used to have a different name?

[MasterThief]

This is a more reasonable take. They get paid well even if they're 7th rounders or street free agents compared to most any job an under 25 year old could get. The veterans are who drive ticket sales. They're the ones who put in the work and earned those top contracts. If anything, I think first round picks are overcompensated. On the flip side, I think the negotiated veteran minimums are too high for older players who have enough left in the tank but are more expensive than a 1-3 year player who produces about 80% of the impact with unknown upside.