Libertarian Party Underperforms in Presidential Election
The 2016 and 2020 elections were the best in the party's history, but 2024 looks likely to fall far short.
It's too soon to know the results of many downballot races, but with a number of states reporting results, it appears that the Libertarian Party (L.P.) has broken the relatively successful streak it has enjoyed in recent presidential contests.
L.P. presidential nominee Chase Oliver is on pace to underperform compared to the party's most recent presidential tickets, though it's not clear whether that is a reflection of his candidacy, the party apparatus, the state of electoral politics in 2024, or all of the above.
For example, with more than 95 percent reporting, The New York Times reports that Oliver captured about 30,000 votes in Florida, totaling around 0.3 percent of the total vote, trailing Green Party candidate Jill Stein by 10,000 votes and 0.1 percent. In 2020, by contrast, L.P. candidate Jo Jorgensen received more than 70,000 votes and 0.6 percent in Florida, dwarfing Green Party candidate Howie Hawkins' 0.1 percent total.
In New Jersey, with 85 percent reporting, Oliver trails both Stein and independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who suspended his campaign in August; in 2020, Jorgensen received more than 31,000 votes there, or 0.7 percent, more than doubling Hawkins' 14,000. Oliver also trails Kennedy in states such as Michigan and Wisconsin.
This was the first presidential election since the L.P.'s takeover by the right-wing Mises Caucus. Oliver was not the caucus' first choice, but he captured the nomination nonetheless after an uninspiring convention speech by Michael Rectenwald, the caucus' preferred candidate. Mises Caucus founder Michael Heise explicitly endorsed Trump for president, and the Mises-affiliated party chair expressed her preference for Trump over Harris.
While the party achieved ballot access in all 50 states in recent years, that was not the case this time: Oliver was not on the ballot in Illinois, New York, Tennessee, or Washington, D.C.
The party also ran fewer candidates overall this year, with some states running no Libertarian candidates for federal office. In September, the Iowa Supreme Court booted three Libertarian candidates from the ballot after Republicans in those districts sued over the state party's selection process. Other state L.P. chapters, such as Arizona's and California's, ran no candidates for Congress in 2024.
