Brickbat: Hot Rod Lincoln

New York Gov. Kathy Hochul has signed a bill that would ban the sale of new internal combustion vehicles in the state by 2035. The law also mandates all new heavy- and medium-duty trucks sold in New York be "zero emissions" by 2045.

Comments

[Jerryskids]

That's okay, I passed legislation that I have to be worshiped as God-King of the Universe by 2050 so I'll just repeal her edict at that time. Besides which, I suspect she's no longer going to be governor by 2035, let alone 2045, and therefore her declaration is going to have as much force in law as if somebody were to declare themselves God-King of the Universe.

[Jerryskids]

But this does illustrate just how insane our political class is that they believe they can just handwave a "Make it so" and it shall be made so. King Canute had his throne carried down to the beach so he could order the tide not to come in as an object lesson to his court that, while he was indeed King, his powers were no more than any other mortal man. These people with their Green New Deal shit seriously believe they can control the winds and the tides. Anybody that believes that crock needs to be locked in an insane asylum.

[mad.casual]

I'm thoroughly convinced that long before Twitter and fake internet personas, before reality TV and real fake egos, we had politics.

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[perlhaqr]

If she really cared about the environment she'd have made it 2022.

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[Fist of Etiquette]

The new law could be a shot in the arm for automakers selling or planning electric vehicles...

Jesus Christ, who writes this garbage? Why the fuck bother employing actual journalists when you can just regurgitate press releases.

[SQRLSY One]

Actually, the new law could be a shot in the arm for automakers selling INTERNAL COMBUSTION ENGINES from out of state, in their own states, to NY buyers! Then the NY buyers will drive them home! If they can't, we run into the "interstate commerce" clause really quickly!

Many years ago, the same was done in Texas, with respect to sailboats getting the snot taxed out of them. Texas buyers went all the way to Florida to buy, and towed them home!

[MatthewSlyfield]

This was my thought also.

[Chumby]

Kathy, you first. Stop being chauffeured and flown around in fossil fuel powered vehicles.

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[Jerry B.]

I see a big market for used fossil-fuel powered vehicles in NY in 14 years.

[CE]

And lots of people freezing to death and being stuck at home when the renewable energy power grid goes out and they can't flee in their electric car.

[kcuch]

Looking for the downside of that...

[Longtobefree]

In an unrelated story, NY overtook California as the most profitable state for U-Haul franchises.

[Kyle T]

There are over 213 million passenger vehicles, light trucks and motorcycles on the road today. Just over 14 million new cars are sold annually. Current production capacity and sales of Electric Vehicles is about 500,000. Even though manufacturers are all ramping up facilities for production, there is even a chip shortage for IC vehicles, let alone EV. Will there even be capacity to build enough cars?

As the costs of EV will likely still be much higher than IC (those batteries are expensive and will become more so with scarcity of materials), NY could have a vehicle profile like Cuba - all older used vehicles.

Of course, the holy grail of economical hydrogen fuel cells could alter that future.

[mad.casual]

Will there even be capacity to build enough cars?

Unequivocally no. The amounts, not reserves, of several metals (used largely, but not exclusively, in batteries) in the Earth's crust don't even account for a 1:1 replacement of existing ICEs with existing EVs in the US alone (note: that being not inclusive of Europe, Asia, Africa, S. America, or even Mexico and Canada) at current, let alone future levels.

Also, I say amounts rather than reserves as this is inclusive of "unminable" traces diffused in soil and other various parts of the crust.

Also note, this is just for vehicles. The competitive use of such metals for grid infrastructure, battery-powered tools, IT infrastructure, home appliances, etc., etc.

[mad.casual]

The competitive use lowers the potential, that is.

Admittedly, this could be portrayed or conceived of as Luddite 'Peak Oil' argument, but that would be an apocryphal analogy. When we started producing and adopting ICEs, nobody could project the number of horses vs. the number of cars could be produced. Moreover, nobody was calling for all horses to be replaced by cars by 1935. I'm not saying nobody should ever develop ICE vehicles. I'm saying that defintive replacement as global policy isn't feasible or desirable. Especially, relative to the way cars became definitively superior to horses in a number of ways (not the least of which being the potential that we have since limited).

[MatthewSlyfield]

The electric power grid will need significant updates to handle conversion of even half of the existing IC fleet to electric.

[CE]

New York can just beg people not to use electricity between 4 and 9 PM, like California does. Or hook everyone's thermostat up to an AI to turn down their heat in the winter.

[Brandybuck]

Time to open a auto dealership in New Jersey!

[CE]

And the local community leaders will show up to say, "nice auto dealership you got there, be a shame if something happened to it."

[D-Pizzle]

Just a cost of doing business in NJ. Reminds me of the scene in Back to School of Rodney's first day in business class.

[Will Nonya]

What I find compelling in all of this, other than the outright authoritarianism, is that this is being done in the name of saving the environment yet ignores the environmental impact of large scale EV battery production and eventual disposal.

An IC engine and transmission with minimal maintenance can outlast an EV battery pack by a decade or more. Even then they could be rebuilt or replaced for less than a battery replacement.

These same people are counting on magic new technologies to solve this problem for them while also believing there is no other way to innovate ourselves out of the root problem.

[Ben of Houston]

Just the description "zero emission vehicle" is a complete and utter lie. The political class seems to think that the power grid is like a video game, where you insert money and +1 wind power appears, consistently and continuously with no pollution.

[D-Pizzle]

What I find hilarious is all of the "partial zero emissions" vehicles out there. Apparently, there are people who don't understand what "partial" and/or "zero" mean.

[perlhaqr]

+1 Remote Emissions Vehicle.

I mean, I love these EVs. I've always wanted a car that ran on coal. Although I had been thinking more directly...

[SimpleRules]

Reminds me of Elizabeth Holmes from Theranos - if I want something bad enough, I just have to will it into existence. Childish.

[Bubba Jones]

Assume a ladder.

"plug-in hybrid-electric vehicles"

There's your loophole.

[Bubba Jones]

Actual text of the bill

"IT SHALL BE A GOAL OF THE STATE"

"PASSENGER VEHICLE AND TRUCK REGULATIONS REQUIRING INCREASING
VOLUMES OF NEW ZERO-EMISSIONS VEHICLES OFFERED FOR SALE OR LEASE, OR
SOLD, OR LEASED, FOR REGISTRATION IN THE STATE TOWARDS THE TARGET OF ONE
HUNDRED PERCENT OF IN-STATE SALES BY TWO THOUSAND THIRTY-FIVE."

Zero-emissions includes plug-in hybrids.

[Gasman]

Plug in hybrids are a sham. The myth of their utility is based on the 'average' driving trip/commute being less than the electric range of the vehicle. But then is the car getting charged at it's destination?, And when the driver has a second or third trip following the first trip?
And will drivers eventually get sloppy and not ever plug in their PHEV? most likely.
Plug in hybrids with useless range are only built to game the zero-emission regulatory state. Given car manufacturer's penchant for using plug-in within low mileage cars, the current PHEV car uses per vehicle more gas than the non-PHEV vehicle.

https://www.transportenvironment.org/discover/plug-hybrids-new-emissions-scandal-tests-show-higher-pollution-claimed/

[Entelechy]

The climatic equivalent of 70 million passenger vehicles could be eliminated if the UN subsidized U.S. meat sales with Uber vouchers and mandated low methane milk cow diets based on shredded Murdoch newspapers and Cato press releases.

[CE]

Democrats, doing their best to turn the USA into Cuba.

[Fitted Sheet]

Really Good to see